Ratings trends heading into new Monday Night War
There’s no doubt that one wrestling company is going into tonight’s official launch of the new Monday Night War with momentum in the ratings, while the other company has been heading in the opposite direction as of late.
The road to WrestleMania has driven ratings up for WWE’s Raw the past two weeks. After doing numbers in the 3.4 to 3.6 range for several weeks, the Feb. 22 show (the night after the Elimination Chamber pay-per-view) did a 3.8, and last Monday’s episode did a 3.7.
Conversely, the ratings for TNA Impact have been going down since the Jan. 28 show did a 1.4, which was a company record for a Thursday episode. In the weeks following that show, Impact did a 1.2 for three straight weeks before dipping to 1.1 the past two weeks.
Eric Bischoff claimed the rating for the Feb. 25 show was due to competition from the Olympics, but that theory didn’t hold up when last Thursday’s show did the same number. To make matters worse, the ratings for last week’s show decreased in the second hour, with the big angle at the end involving Hulk Hogan and Ric Flair doing just a 0.9
So, should TNA be worried as they enter into a head-to-head competition with the WWE juggernaut? Well, obviously, declining ratings are never positive, but it’s not time to panic yet. In fact, WWE doing strong numbers could actually help TNA grow its audience.
Last week’s Raw had 5.3 million viewers, while Thursday’s Impact had 1.5 million. It’s very likely that a segment of the viewers who watch Raw but never watch Impact will be curious enough to flip channels periodically – especially if they see familiar faces such as Jeff Hardy and Rob Van Dam. So it won’t surprise me at all if Impact is back up around 1.4. That may not sound impressive compared to Raw’s ratings, but it at least stops the downward spiral and gives TNA a foundation to try and build on, not to mention a morale boost.
TNA president Dixie Carter made it clear three weeks ago at the news conference annoucing Impact's move to Mondays that she has realistic goals in regard to taking on Raw in a ratings battle.
"War is usually fought over a long period of time," she said. "Our goals have not changed from the very beginning, and that was to put out the very best wrestling company and continue to grow that product slow and steady. If we can hold numbers like we've had success on big Thursday nights and continue to grow that, and even have the kind of success we had on that one Monday night on Jan. 4, it'll be a good place to start."
TNA has pushed the idea that something big is going to happen in the first five minutes of tonight’s show. If it has anything to do with Hardy, RVD or Sting, however, it won’t be much of a surprise, as the word is out that all three are expected to be on the show. I jokingly made five guesses Sunday as to what the big angle could be, but all kidding aside, I am interested to see what it TNA comes up with.
I’m also interested to see how WWE reacts tonight to having competition. Publicly, the company has no-sold TNA’s move – as well they should. The industry leader should never acknowledge a challenger that isn’t in their league yet. However, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Bret Hart made his return to WWE after a 12-year absence on Jan. 4, the same night that TNA aired a live, three-hour special episode of Impact. Nor do I think it’s a coincidence that WWE announced on last week’s Raw that Vince McMahon would be wrestling John Cena on tonight’s show.
Let the games begin.
Comments
Hey Kevin, I'd be curious to see what you and the other readers of your blog plan to do tonight. My plan is to start watching WWE at 9pm, but thanks to the glory of a dual-tuner DVR, I'll be flipping back and forth between the two the entire night and never missing a minute of either one.
Posted by: Micah Kleid | March 8, 2010 1:04 PM
Kev,
Do you think iMPACT will ever air live in the U.K? At the moment, we still need to wait until Saturday until it airs.
Posted by: Orton.1 | March 8, 2010 1:23 PM
What about pay-per-view buy rates? With all this talk of ratings, I think the notion of PPV buy rates--a serious money-maker for wrestling organizations, maybe even more so than advertisers on weekly shows--is being forgotten.
RESPONSE FROM KE: You make a great point, and it's something I've brought up in the past. The fact is that Russo and Bischoffhave always been obsessed with ratings (of, course, WWE is as well, much not quite as much). However, with Spike TV putting a significant amount of money into TNA, it is important for the future of TNA that they deliver good enough ratings to keep the network happy.
Posted by: Matthew | March 8, 2010 1:29 PM
Anything that keeps Raw running a better show is fine with me.
Posted by: Patrick Johnson | March 8, 2010 1:43 PM
I hope TNA will last as long as it can, and I will watch both shows tonight. If I see Hornswoggle or Bubba I'll stop watching both.
Posted by: MitZi | March 8, 2010 2:07 PM
Looking forward to tonight's shows. On a WWE note, WWE has been promoting the Vince/Cena match as a "first time ever". If I'm not mistaken, Vince fought John Cena one-on-one during the build to WrestleMania 22...at the time with Shawn Michaels in Cena's corner and a heel Triple H in Vince's corner. It always bothers me when WWE ignores history....
Posted by: Jason | March 8, 2010 2:16 PM
Is Vince v. Cena really supposed to be a big ratings draw? C'mon, we all know what's going to happen: Cena will get in a couple of good shots, then Batista will do a run-in and pummel Cena, and Vince will stand over Cena screaming at him and maybe spitting, just to hammer home the Montreal Screwjob plotline a little more.
I, for one, wish Vince would stop pretending to be an athlete. It's a waste of time, and it's utterly uncompelling.
Posted by: jvwalt | March 8, 2010 4:17 PM
I will never understand why TNA chose to make this move while the WWE is in full Wrestlemania build mode. Raw is stronger right now then it is in ages; I personally have begun to watch the show again, rather then just reading the recaps. I'm sure they think they have momentum now, but they would have been wise to wait until after 'Mania when the WWE cools off a bit. Not to mention that they still have A LOT of kinks to work out of their own show. I just have a feeling that we'll be looking back on this night in a year or two as the day TNA began to die.
Posted by: Ken Raining | March 8, 2010 4:45 PM
I think TNA are being quite shrewd on the timing of the move.
By waiting until the WWE is in its full Road-to-Wrestlemania-60-minutes-on-three-promos-a-night turn that Vince likes to do to 'build tensions' there will be a lot of flipping viewers back and forth giving t=TNA greater exposure to the wrestling fan base.
Furthermore they will not be expecting to improve their rating that much in the first couple of weeks due to the Road to Wrestlemania generally being the WWE's high ratings time giving them a chance to work out the kinks in their show with a reasonable excuse to fall back on.
Basically they are leaving the fans with a monday night choice ultimately between watching Disney wrestling or slightly more adult entertainment which will allow them to survive but they will need to develop product to make gains.
Posted by: Yogi | March 8, 2010 5:12 PM
It was inevitable for fans to start breaking out the 'Monday Night Wars 2.0' comments, but do you think it's wise for Dixie Carter and TNA to be making that comparison as well? At best it tries to make TNA sound cool in a retro-nostalgic manner. At worst, it makes them sound like a bunch of small-timers aspiring to take on the Big Boys. I'm just not sure TNA should claim to be going to war until they prove they can actually stake a claim to part of the Monday night audience. Hope they do well, we'll see...
Posted by: crimson wombat | March 8, 2010 7:26 PM
WHAT WAR??!!!???
This equates to US v Iraq, GB v Falklands.
Back in the 90s, WCW had the tradition of Crockett promotions to build on, in addition to attracting viewers with Main Eventers grabbed from WWF: Ho'gan, Oz, Big Scott Hall.
All Ho'gan is drawing on now is cripples from the 90s and castoffs from the WWE.
The dumb b------ cant even figure out how to leverage the X-division and the Knockouts into a product that not only keeps the old TNA viewers but attract viewers away from the WWE with a new TNA lineup.
Let Carter give Ho'gan a few months to figure out what a joke he is, and then bring back some of the staffers she let go. This time give THEM the blank check.
Posted by: Not The Continental Nobleman, Joe Turco | March 8, 2010 8:01 PM
I watched TNA last night, and I quickly remembered why I DON'T watch TNA.
What a hot mess. Hogan and Flair should never be allowed to wear tights again. That was just sad. Sting, Jarett: They can stay. They look like they can actually wrestle without breaking a hip.
The show needs more recaps so we know what the heck is going on, because I couldn't care less right now.
The TNA show is unwatchable. I got absolutely bored 45 minutes in and turned it off.
I'll give it two more weeks, but I don't know if I'm going to care by then.
Posted by: What Was That Hot Mess? | March 9, 2010 12:31 PM
joe turco is right. there is no war. with wwe already switching to PG. the kiddies are already on board. they are the money makers. not us old-time wrastling fans.
Posted by: ryan b | March 9, 2010 4:40 PM
I wish wcw was still on. TNA reminds me alot of early WCW. I think TNA just needs time and to pick up some WWE wrestlers. I think it could go all the way against raw.
Posted by: zachary orum | March 15, 2010 3:03 PM