Some readers might remember that until last summer, Childs Walker wrote a weekly column on fantasy sports for The Sun. That ritual died for the cause of reducing newsprint costs (tough business, newspapers). But with the Toy Department open and its aisles boundless, Childs is back with his insights, laments and odes to joy regarding pretend baseball and pretend football. For previous editions of Childs Play, click here.

We're at the point in the baseball season when a lot of players look preposterously good or preposterously bad. And they've played enough that it's not quite so easy to shrug and say, "It's just one game."

That's what you should do. Whenever people ask me about their teams in April, I tell them to be patient and see where they stand after a month. If you know you have a weakness, that's one thing. But if you thought your team had great power going into the season, and you currently rank dead last in home runs, don't overreact.

That said, every owner wonders if the nobody who started hot will keep it up or whether the star with a 11.17 ERA (you're killing me, Cole Hamels) will regain his former glory. So here are my reads on some of the hottest and coldest starts of 2009.

Aaron Hill - I touted him two weeks ago, so I'm not going to turn around and say he sucks. Obviously, the Blue Jays second baseman isn't going to hit 40 home runs (he has five already.) But he showed two years ago that he can hit 15+ with a solid batting average. He remains an appealing option at second base, even if he's a sell-high candidate right now.

Zach Greinke - Fearless predictor says he won't hold opponents scoreless for the year. Seriously though, he's really good. He always had a sick combination of power fastball, sharply contrasting off-speed stuff and excellent control. Now that he has his non-playing life in order, he should remain pretty golden. You don't strike out 26 in 20 scoreless innings if you're a fluke.

Ian Kinsler - For a second straight year, he's looking like the best player in the American League early in the season. That can't be a total fluke, right? Kinsler will not continue to hit like Rogers Hornsby. But he carries a perfect profile for a fantasy star. He does everything well, he plays a position thin on offensive talent and his home park makes him look better than he is. As long as he stays healthy, he's a top-5 fantasy talent in the A.L., and I would not look to trade him.

Cole Hamels - Yeah, he's been lousy and yeah, he just told a reporter he was underprepared for the season. But his second start was better than his first, which happened in Colorado. His velocity has already improved. His control is fine. As long as he and the Phillies aren't hiding a more serious injury, I want him on my team.

Continue reading "Childs Play: Sorting through baseball's hot/cold starts" »

Posted by Childs Walker at 4:00 PM in Childs Play/Fantasy | Permalink | Comments (2)
        

Some readers might remember that until last summer, Childs Walker wrote a weekly column on fantasy sports for The Sun. That ritual died for the cause of reducing newsprint costs (tough business, newspapers). But with the Toy Department open and its aisles boundless, Childs is back with his insights, laments and odes to joy regarding pretend baseball and pretend football. For previous editions of Childs Play, click here.

It's too early to draw many conclusions about the major league season (except that you don't want to own any Orioles starter not named Guthrie or Uehara.) So let's talk about some of the minor leaguers that might come up and help your fantasy team this season.

If your league is like most of mine, a lot of these guys are already locked up on reserve rosters. But there are always a few who sneak to the big leagues unowned. And besides, it's always worth knowing how the prospects are playing, for trade purposes and such.

I might as well start with Baltimore baseball messiah Matt Wieters. We all expect Wieters to be a top-level fantasy catcher as soon as he reaches Camden Yards. I wouldn't worry that he's hitting .222 with no extra-base hits at Triple-A Norfolk. Even gods can look bad in small samples.

How about the Orioles' three elite pitching prospects? In looking for useful fantasy prospects, it's always important to find major league teams with obvious holes to fill. Weaknesses don't come much more glaring than the abcess at the back of the O's rotation. Chris Tillman (above) and Jake Arrieta pitched well in their first starts at Triple-A and Double-A, respectively. Brian Matusz posted a 4.66 ERA in his first two outings for Single-A Frederick. Despite their needs, I expect the Orioles to be cautious in reaching for any of the three. Given questions about Tillman's command and about Arrieta's secondary pitches, I'm not sure either would be a fantasy help in '09 anyway.

The most exciting guy at Triple-A right now is probably Braves right-hander Tommy Hanson. The 6-foot-6 Hanson throws 95 mph with three average-to-above complimentary pitches. He has fanned 17 in 10 innings, and the Braves might have a need given the possible retirement of Tom Glavine. Hanson could be good in a hurry, so if he's somehow available in your league, remedy the oversight.

Rangers starter Neftali Feliz is an equally exciting arm at Triple-A, but he's not quite as polished as Hanson and showed it by walking six in his first outing. Arlington is a lousy place to pitch, so if Feliz isn't totally ready, he could get hammered there. Still, if a guy throws 97 mph with an effortless delivery and rolled through as many levels as Feliz did in '08, he has to be in your long-range plans. His teammate and fellow prospect Derek Holland also struggled in his first start.

Continue reading "Childs Play: Fantasy options from the minor leagues" »

Posted by Childs Walker at 3:00 PM in Childs Play/Fantasy | Permalink | Comments (2)
        

Some readers might remember that until last summer, Childs Walker wrote a weekly column on fantasy sports for The Sun. That ritual died for the cause of reducing newsprint costs (tough business, newspapers). But with the Toy Department open and its aisles boundless, Childs is back with his insights, laments and odes to joy regarding pretend baseball and pretend football.

The tendency, when you look at fantasy teams post-draft, is to fixate on the stars, the hot rookies and the obvious bargains. It's hard to win a title without a few big guns firing at maximum capacity, so it's human nature to dwell on such players.

But when you look at your league champion come season's end, you'll invariably find another species of player--unglamorous guys who earn $5 or $10 more than their draft-day price tags. The key, of course, is to grab a few of these guys early, whether from the waiver wire or as trade throw-ins. Their production will become apparent by midseason but for now, getting them won't require a fight. Here are some guys who strike me that way.

Ty Wigginton - The new Oriole was actually pretty popular at my A.L. auction, but if you're in a less Baltimore-centric league, his non-starter status might depress his value. Here's why it shouldn't. Wigginton could ultimately be eligible at every offensive slot but shortstop or catcher. He annihilates lefthanded pitching (.288 for his career compared to .264 against righties) so if Dave Trembley platoons him, his rate stats will actually go up and compensate for lost at-bats. Finally, Camden Yards favors righthanded power. Wigginton will not carry your fantasy team but could be an exceedingly useful component as the season rolls on.

Seth Smith - Coors Field is no longer the park that built Vinny Castilla and Dante Bichette into MVP candidates. But it's still a terrific place to hit, the kind of park that can turn Matt Holliday into a superstar or Clint Barmes into a useful player. Smith is starting in Coors. He offers some pop, has a good contact record in the minors and can run a little. That's the sort of player who could miraculously hit .300 with 20 homers and 10 steals for the Rockies. I'm not saying it will happen, but how many $5 players even present such possibilities? Teammate Ryan Spillborghs is another from the same mold.

Continue reading "Childs Play" »

Posted by Childs Walker at 3:30 PM in Childs Play/Fantasy | Permalink | Comments (0)
        

Some readers might remember that until last summer, Childs Walker wrote a weekly column on fantasy sports for The Sun. That ritual died for the cause of reducing newsprint costs (tough business, newspapers). But with the Toy Department open and its aisles boundless, Childs is back with his insights, laments and odes to joy regarding pretend baseball and pretend football.

It's funny how often a fantasy draft is a reaction to what happened the year before. I just had my first serious draft (actually, auction) of the spring and when I look back on it, almost everything I did played off a poor 2008 auction in the same league.

It's a keeper league and last year, I underestimated the impact of inflation on bidding patterns. I also fixated too much on a few players and positions. So I ended up with a roster that was long on star power (Miguel Cabrera, Roy Halladay, Nick Markakis, B.J. Upton and others) but filled out with too many guys who hardly played.

In AL- or NL-only leagues, star-laden teams often lose out to those with solid starters at almost every position. You'd be surprised how often the team with the most total at bats, not the most All-Stars, has the best offense.

So I entered this year determined to avoid inflation and costly dead spots. I didn't want to wait for specific players. Instead, I would take anybody decent as long as bidding stopped near my pre-draft dollar value. My only hard-and-fast goal was to land a starter at every offensive spot.

All in all, I did pretty well, though I probably punted batting average by grabbing Jack Cust, Jim Thome and Russ Branyan in a late-auction effort to boost my power. I went in thinking that my top offensive buy would be either Ian Kinsler or Brian Roberts. Second base is not a deep position in the AL, so either guy would afford a big leg up on the competition. Kinsler's price jumped past the $33 I had written on my sheet, so I let him go. That discipline paid off when I landed Roberts, actually a better fit because of his stolen bases, at $32. I have both Roberts and Markakis. Guess I'm a homer.

Continue reading "Childs Play" »

Posted by Childs Walker at 3:05 PM in Childs Play/Fantasy, Orioles | Permalink | Comments (0)
        

Some readers might remember that until last summer, Childs Walker wrote a weekly column on fantasy sports for The Sun. That ritual died for the cause of reducing newsprint costs (tough business, newspapers). But with the Toy Department open and its aisles boundless, Childs is back with his insights, laments and odes to joy regarding pretend baseball and pretend football.

I hate to revive my fantasy ramblings on a down note, but I'm feeling as burned out with my teams as I have since college (when I stopped playing altogether in favor of listening to gloomy music and pursuing women).

Normally, fantasy baseball guides are like cute girls in tanktops, suggestive of spring and life beginning anew. But this year, they're as bad as an e-mail from the boss, reminding me of tasks I haven't completed. I just stare at my 2009 Baseball Forecaster and think about all the draft prep I haven't done, all the middle relievers I don't know, all the sleepers still slumbering in my resistant brain.

OK, this is ridiculous. Can one really be depressed about fantasy sports? Are there fantasy shrinks (I'm scared to look)?

So here's what I'm going to do: Just have fun. I've spent so many years preparing so hard for fantasy baseball, that perhaps I've trapped myself in a soul-crushing loop. Must every year involve a dozen guides and serious analysis of strikeout rates in early January? I'm saying no. I'll enter 2009 with Sam Walker's Fantasyland in mind. For those who didn't read the book, Walker, a Wall Street Journal columnist, hired a research staff in his quest to win the Tout Wars expert league in 2004. He finished well back but returned to Tout Wars in 2005, buoyed by little preparation, and won the league.

I'm not predicting such lofty accomplishments for this Walker. But in the name of my quest for joy, here are 10 players who should be fun to own in '09.

Clayton Kershaw - Nothing is more fun than owning the pitcher who explodes into a full-fledged ace. This Dodgers lefty has as much talent as anyone in the game and began to harness it down the stretch last year. He might not go all 1985-Dwight-Gooden on the league. But then again, he might and that's a possibility worth paying for.

Shin-Soo Choo - Korea was the surprise darling of the World Baseball Classic. Choo could be the first position player from said nation to be a fantasy star. I'm talking .300 with 20 homers and 20 steals, aka Nick Markakis numbers. And I dig his name.

Continue reading "Childs Play returns!" »

Posted by Childs Walker at 12:00 PM in Childs Play/Fantasy | Permalink | Comments (0)