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What do you do with Jeremy Guthrie this winter?

No question that one of the biggest mysteries this season for the Orioles is Jeremy Guthrie.

He struggled through much of the first half, and we talked about him then.

To start the second half, Guthrie pitched brilliantly in Chicago. He had two terrible outings and then pitched well again last week in Detroit.

On Monday, he was terrible again, allowing five runs and a season-high 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings. He has a 5.43 ERA, his 81 earned runs allowed ties for the major-league lead and his 12 losses are worst in the AL.

A total headscratcher.

He may not be as good as he was in 2008, but he’s not this bad either. The Orioles have no choice but to let him pitch the rest of this season and hope he can turn it around.

Yet the inconsistency of this season puts into question his future.

Is he a guy you try to trade in the offseason for something slightly useful while he still has some value given his age and salary situation (he is under club control for three more seasons)?

Do you offer him arbitration (assuming he’ll make $1 million or more in 2010), pencil him into the back of your rotation and just assume he figures it out?

Or do you cut your losses, non-tender him a contract and move on?

I think you have to hold onto Guthrie for 2010, and hope 2009 was an aberration. The Orioles just aren’t deep enough in major-league starters right now and Guthrie is too talented to discard him this winter.

Am I right?

Daily Think Special: What do you do with Jeremy Guthrie this offseason?

Comments

In the immortal words of Ed McMahon, "Right you are, sir!" If we traded Guthrie, we would immediately be out looking for another veteran starter -- and we probably couldn't find one his age with his potential at his price. It would be foolish not to give him another shot in 2010.

Guthrie just plain sucks. Get rid of him and Trembley too while you are at it.

it'd be great to have a veteran to lead this staff....but it would have to be a veteran who doesn't give up 3 home runs every game and an era that is way too high.....he has to be told he will fight for a spot in the rotation next year and we probably should send him to the pen now and bring up Erbe...
also release Mora and bring up snyder
let's just get on with it...
this is no fun for anyone

The O's named Guthrie their ace but he was never better than a 4th or 5th on most teams. They should keep him and hope for a return to the form of a 4th or 5th guy to go along with their young guns and hope they aren't just pop guns. Just remember "potential" is just another word for not very good.

Let him eat innings this year. But any other starter would have been long gone. He seems a little stubborn and aloof this year. It's a location problem that's glaring. You'll get nothing for him in trade so bring him back in the spring and if the location issues continue designate him. He doesn't exactly have a long history of success.

Guthrie is not now a major league pitcher and he may not be the rest of his to be short, a least in my opinion, major league career. Least we forget, he was rescued from the scrap heap in Cleveland so how did he get there in the first place? Answer, by what we are seeing this year. He does not have a future in Baltimore. He doesn't pitch he just throws. Not good enough unless you are a bottom feeder and if the Orioles ever want to be anything else, they move players like him.

Guthrie's a gamer. Could he be trying to pitch through a worn-out arm? Could his pitching in the WBC at the beginning of the season be a factor?

I agree, I think that they have to keep him for 2010 and hope that he figures it out. They've been saying since the start of the season that he can't duplicate his delivery, I would think that an entire off season of working on his technique could hopefully help him bounce back. He's still young, talented, and cheap so I can't imagine just cutting ties with him.

I think we have to keep him for now. His value is going to be extremely low at the moment.

I blame the WBC for Guthrie's struggles this year. Maybe it messed with his preparation, maybe it messed with his mechanics/confidence, or maybe the added work at the beginning of spring has left him pitching through an injury we don't know about. Either way, I don't think him going from a solid #2 or #3 caliber starter to god awful and bipolar in the year that he pitched in the WBC is a coincidence.

So I say keep him, and hope for a rebound in 2010. Hopefully his trade value will rise, and we can trade him in June or July for some solid pieces and move Jake Arrieta into the rotation. And from there we will get to see our rotation of the future of Tillman, Matusz, Bergesen, Hernandez, and Arrieta in action.

You put him on waivers and let Kenny Williams snag him.

l don't know!
As for me, l'm going to forget about the zeros and cheer on the Ravens on thursday night!!

Be a greeter at WalMart.

I think 2 hings are happening to Jeremy, neither of which should be cause o send him packing anywhere. 1. He have been our Ace by defualt in '08 and a great steal in'07 but he doesn;thave enough above avg or great pitches to be considered a true Ace. When he's on, sure, his cut fastball is tight and deadly, but his change has always been pedestrian. He needs to develop another out pitch. 2. Pitching some many games w so little run support and seemingly always having to stop a four game slide, maybe the pressure has worn him down mentally as much as maybe the extra zing on his fastball. What to do? Limit his pitch counts from here out. This year is toast anyhow. And give him a raise for holding a giant finger in the dike while we were wating for the young gun calvary to arrive!

Tough call. When he's on his game, he can look so good, but that has been less and less often these days. Given his age (he'll be 31 next April) and the fact that the O's have so many promising MUCH younger starters, I think you have to let him go. Otherwise, he may well turn out to be like Daniel Cabrera, occasionally showing promise, but mostly frustrating the team while his talent comes to nothing. Maybe a change of scenery would do him good. The constant beatings he is enduring can't be good for his psyche either and it's frustrating as hell to watch, too. I'd rather watch the 22- to 25-year olds struggle; at least the upside is much higher if things ever do get straightened out.

Dan- This year the Orioles decided to cut Guthrie's pay by over $100K from the previous year after winning 10 games for this last place team. Maybe this year we can show this player some respect and give him a raise when he wins 10 games for this last place team. What do you think?

In '07 the guy threw 175 innings and had a 3.70 ERA. Last year he tossed 190 innings with a 3.65 ERA. He's making 650k this season.
Sure he's having a bad year but why get rid of him? What do you risk by keeping him around? Nothing. You're not going to get anything by trading him right now. And by trading him you'd basically be selling low.
Keep him at least until next year and if he pitches well, then keep him in the rotation. If he doesn't then you can drop him if there's no room in the rotation. But this is the same organization that just a few months ago was doing everything to find someone to eat innings. Now they should dump the one guy that does that?
Certainly his performance this season has been poor but there's no benefit in getting rid of him and there's a reasonable probability that he can return to the form of the last 2 seasons.

What do you do with him? Nothing. You have to be kidding. What are you going to replace him with? Another Steve Traschel? Mark Eaton? Daniel Cabrera? He's dirt cheap, salary wise, and there aren't any guarantees a guy you could sign for $5 - $6 million would be any better. He's not an ace, but he's not a waste, either.

Get rid of Trembly,,, case closed

Guthrie's problem is he doesn't feel a since of obligation to the team. He skipped spring training when he should have had a sense of honor to the people who pay his salary.

Morning Dan...gimme a coffee to go please. Your ight in that we need a veteran starter in 2010 but I'm not sure JG is the man atthe front of that rotation. Get a 1st line starter as a free agent and then let JG compete in spring training like everyone else. If he gets his stuff together, let 'em pitch. If not, release him.

First the O's should ban ALL players under contract from EVER participating in the WBC again. EVERY player from the organization that went suffered in some way. Izzy had an injury, BRob had a bad start to the season and mora and Guthrie ended up with lost seasons. Keep Guthrie. He already had lost his "Ace" status to Bergeson and next year expectations will be low entering Spring training. He is young, not a FA for 3 more years and has performed well on a BAD team. If he starts to get pushed too far back in the rotation by the kids next year, but has done well and raises his value THEN consider moving him NEXT winter.

Didn't we learn anything from
staying with Cabrera... hoping?

Guthrie simply does not have command of his pitches. The camera shows his fastballs have no movement..and too often the are in the center of the plate. You can actually see 70 percent of the pitches that get smaked..before they reach the hitter. He does not have an overpowering curve or changeup...to keep hitters off balance.
There is little upside in paying him next year..especially since the team brought up all those young pitchers. The team needs a reliable veteran..not one who can`t get out the the first couple of innings..and leads all baseball in home runs given up.

Give him next year, most of the pitchers who threw in the WBC are having bad seasons not just him

What do to with Guthrie. I think he's fatigued and needs a break. He shows signs that he can be an effective. But if you noticed, alot of players that played in the WBC aren't fairing too well. I think the Os should give him one more chance, have him rest up during the winter and get his mind right, and start over fresh in spring training. To give up 27 homers has to be either a sign of fatigue or you just plain suck. Hopefully he's fatigued.

It's time that the Birds start looking for quality veteran young ball players, for example Alex Rios. Getting propects is ok, however, it will be the same old story one or two years from now.

It's time that the Birds start looking for quality veteran young ball players, for example Alex Rios. Getting propects is ok, however, it will be the same old story one or two years from now.

Let him go. We are a last place team with him. Kinda of hard to be any worse than that with him gone. Let the young pitchers come up and take his slot.

I don't think there is a question. You have got to keep him. The only reason why Matusz was called up is because we ran out of pitchers ready for the majors. I don't think the Orioles want to be forced to have Matusz, Arrieta or Patton start in the rotation next year.

Even with Guthrie we only have four starting pitchers and will need to get one in free agency. I highly doubt that we'd get one starter better then Guthrie let alone two.

Gutherie would be a great 3rd starter, he wouldn't be an Ace on any other team in baseball. That is the problem. I don't know how you can call him a vet?? How many career starts and wins does he have? How long has it been since the Orioles have had a pitcher with 100 starts as an Oriole?? Even more 100 wins as an Oriole what a flipp'n joke

I think we should stay the course and keep Guthrie. He is a leader, fierce competitor, has tremendous work ethic, eats up innings and I think will be a valuable piece to our contending teams in the years to come. Sure he's having a mysteriously bad season, but he's not supposed to be a 20 game winner "Ace" of our rotation long-term. Someone said it earlier in the year, and I think the comparison is great- that Guthrie is a Scott-Erickson type of pitcher that this rotation needs. Like Erickson- who also had some rough years- Guthrie will have his ups and downs, but no doubt we need to keep him in the rotation. I understand in a perfect world, a rotation of Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen and Patton would be nice (all under 23), but the reality is this probably won't happen. However if it eventually does, at least keep Guthrie until that time then cross that bridge when we get to it. Perhaps Guthrie ends up being a valuable long-term middle reliever at that point? All this to say, I really want us to keep him and see him succeed.

Give him a look at Spring training in 2010. If there"s no noticable improvement, let him go. This can be said for quite a few of the current O's. It's becoming a real chore for a long-time fan to attend or watch these games. Twelve years now! Promises, promises. Even the Nats are starting to play a better game, but they have added some stars along the way. Hey, but Luke Scott hit a homer last night!

u need JG around for 2010 at least. There are no guarantees with the young pitchers right now. I think next year you have Bergy, Matusz, and probably Tillman. Then you have two open spots. So let him duke it out with the rest of the guys for those spots. Signing a free agent #1 next year is a pipe dream, the good ones will want way to much money to come to this loser, and the mediorce ones are no better than JG. This team needs to show improvement for any one like Halliday to ever sign. We couldnt even get Burnett and the guy lives here!!!!!
BTW MORA MUST GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I say keep him - he's still cheap and remember Rodrigo Lopez (2002: 15-9; 2003: 7-10; 2004: 14-9)? Who wouldn't take that these days? If you get rid of him, we end up searching for some inning-eater, back-of-the-rotation guy for 2-million/year and end up w/ Eaton or Traschel. No thanks,

Jeremy's a good guy, will battle, and may turn things around to be a slightly-above .500 pitcher. Not a number 1, 2, or 3 starter but wouldn't mind him being #4 or #5.

O's need to find/sign a legit #1 starter and squeeze the young guys in between the #1 and the #5 (Guthrie). Let the search begin.

Guthrie needs to work with the pitching coach exclusively on a change up. He needs for it be an effective pitch for him and have the confidence to use it in games. Right now, everything he has is hard - fastball with little movement and a hard slider. He needs to use the change up to primarily get left handed hitters out.

He does have talent and the O's should hold onto him.

From what I've seen, Guthrie's fastball has lost about 2-3 m.p.h., going from an above averge to an average major league fastball. Other pitchers have show that they can win with an average fastball (Bergeson comes to mind), but to be more effective, he needs to develop an "out" pitch, a sharper braking ball. Now, hitters are just fouling off his well-located pitches, waiting for the inevitable mistake. I'd say keep him and give him an offseason to develop a sharper breaking ball. He provides stability and a veteran presence at a relatively cheap price. He's also a hard worker and open to coaching,

Keep Guthrie, get rid of the WBC.

Seriously, in what other major professional team sport is the regular season disrupted for some international competition?

I think the Orioles should refuse to participate in the WBC. Let the first-place teams risk their top players for this meaningless tournament.

As for Guthrie: lest we forget, we began this season with 37 candidates for our 5 starting positions, and I don't remember thinking we let any good ones get away.

Getting rid of a player is only worthwhile if you have someone potentially better to replace him. Guthrie's not being paid much, the Orioles don't appear to have any inclination of signing a big-money veteran starter, and all of our other starters are rookies who are struggling with varying levels of growing pains.

Keep those Shirley Temples coming, barkeep. It's been a long season.

The Orioles should put Guthrie through waivers. He may have value to a contending team down the stretch. That would help determine his trade value, and the Orioles could withdraw him and work a trade for a corner position player later on.

I believe Guthrie would be an effective pitcher on a winning team with other good starters. He has little value with the Orioles and will not win here.

This year is shot, let's see what we can get for him.

You gotta keep him. Just can't hand him the Ace role next year though. Bring in some competition for the veteran starter role in the spring and see what happens. I think he sticks the rotation but he might find himself out of the #1 slot. He can be a real asset when he's on and if nothing else he can teach the cavalry. He knows what it's like to be a big prospect and he can teach them what it takes to get it done. Maybe win a few games while he's at it.

Everyone who's pro-keeping Guthrie has already said what I would in regards to reasons to keep him. The only thing I have to add that hasn't been mentioned already is that if anyone heard his interview after the game last night, I think they'd agree that he is an extremely intelligent person. He is very reflective and is a realistic and concise thinker. His natural talent is enough that coupled with his high intelligence, you'd have to gamble on him eventually coming out of this. Some of you are comparing him to D. Cabrera, and it's just not a comparison when talking about what's between his ears. I know Cabrera is foreign and therefore some concise ideas are lost because of that language differential, but even with that factored in, Guthrie may very well be in the top 3 smartest guys in the dugout, including coaches.No doubt he's having his struggles, but on THIS team, he's a keeper. Maybe even consider sending him down to dominate minor leaguers to get his confidence back up. Maybe that's a stupid idea, but I think he's good enough to warrant trying anything and I think he's willing to do whatever to get back to his true ability which is slightly worse than his really good years, but definitely better than what he's showing. That intelligence can potentially be invaluable to the younger guys.

This is the team that held onto Cabrera and Ponson when they went through stints like this, so how is Guthrie any different? I say give him one more year to see which Guthrie shows up (the 2009 version or the 2008 version) and then make a decision from there.

I KNOW WHY. The reason is WBC. I did not check everybody who participated in WBC this spring but a handful of them (like Dice-K, Ted Lilly, Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt and Guthrie - all SPs) are struggling this season.
Don't you see the co-incidence here?
Anyways, Guthrie will be fine next year...

The big problem for Guthrie has been a drop in velocity and corresponding drop in fastball movement. Is he healthy? Regardless, he's likely to cost so little for 2010 that is doesn't make sense for the Orioles to do anything but bring him back. If you're interested in more about how Guthrie has pitched, check out my full post:

http://baltimorebirdsnest.blogspot.com/2009/08/what-should-os-do-with-guthrie.html

Got to keep him. He will turn it around and we cant start 5 virtual rookies next year.

Guthrie was knocked around before, during and after the WBC. He was neither phsyically nor mentally ready for Spring training let alone the regular season. Was it the salary cut? He deserves less for next year, but we will have to keep him, at least until late July!

I want to keep Guthrie for no other reason than to have him be our opening day starter. That is not something I'd want to put on any of the young pitchers at this stage. As well as Bergy has pitched, for example, he shouldn't be declared the ace and opening day starter yet. It'd be too much pressure if we did to one of the young guys now.

They should only get rid of Guthrie if they sign a legitimate ace... which they probably won't do.

hey' right now boston needs pitching, trade him for a good prosprect , next year find an ace the o's can bank on and lead the kids .

You have to be an idiot to say to dump him. Not much cost especially if he turns it around. AM is not going to let this guy just leave, not now anyway

Let's face it, we got Lucky with Guthrie, he had a couple of good years, but Cleveland let him go for the same reasons we are dealing with now, If the young guns we have coming are gonna get better, we will need a proven veteran winner to guide them, maybe next year the O's will spend more than $10 on real pitchers!

Keep Gutherie another year and see what pans out. Get rid of Trembley and all his coaches...all...with no exceptions and hire someone who is going to put some spark into this organization and make these guys accountable. They make big bucks and don't produce. We need a winning attitude around here not a manager that says in his press conferences..." well that is baseball." If we win we win, if we lose there is always tomorrow. That is a defeatist attitude if you ask me.

The WBC has to be one of the biggest hoaxes ever perpetrated in the world of sport and I think Guthrie is one of its victims.

Since this circus is now gone, I want Guthrie to take the winter off and begin fresh next year.

As a matter of fact, it would not bother me if his season ended early on the DL for fatigue and he takes the month of September off.

Put him in the bullpen.

Keep him around. We made the mistake before by letting go pitches with talent. The only thing the O's need to do is bring in a veteren pitcher to help with his problems

See how it goes the rest of the season, and bring him back in the spring. There will be a lot of competition for spots in the rotation, and he make end up being a number 5. Otherwise, he'll be gone.

You are EXACTLY right, Dan! You hang onto him for 2010 while not forgetting that what he did for us in 2008 was NOT an aberration! He WILL figure things out! He is too young and too talented to discard! I can live with us trading away George Sherrill but when will we stop trading away players who have talent, ability and trade value for MORE and MORE minor league prospects? Do we want to be the team of the future forever? Clearly, we are finishing last again this year but, at some point, we need to start winning and Guthrie can help us do that!

Amazing range of responses. I can't believe the number of guys who just want to dump him. To me it's a no brainer. So what if they have to pay him $1M next year following arbitration? He should have gotten more this year than he got so that's just giving him back a little he was due. It's still dirt cheap for a capable starting pitcher. Which I strongly believe he will be again. Since the question is what to do this offseason, that's the answer.

If the discussion includes what happens if someone puts in a waiver claim on him, then the answer is you pull him back and try to work out a trade. You don't give him up for the waiver price. It's both good baseball and business decisions to keep him around for at least the beginning of next year.

Unless the Orioles trade for or acquire a veteran starter who can pitch 180 innings with an ERA below 4.00, Guthrie will be going to Spring training next year with the Orioles. The starting pitching is just too young. You need experience to become a winner.

Guthrie is still undervalued. He would be a good three starter on any team. He is one of the best 100 starters in baseball. You have to hope he rebounds in 2010.

Unless the Orioles trade for or acquire a veteran starter who can pitch 180 innings with an ERA below 4.00, Guthrie will be going to Spring training next year with the Orioles. The starting pitching is just too young. You need experience to become a winner.

Cut him.

If you did good work for your company for several years, but then screwed up in your latest project, would you be fired? Probably not. Give Guthrie the opportunity to work things out. Maybe there is some other problem we don't know about. If he pitches poorly next April and May, then send him to the pen.

I think the best thing Guthrie has going for him is that Trembley loves him. The bad news for Guthrie is that Trembley will be gone. Any manager who preaches attention to detail and has a team as aloof as this one needs to go. I think Guthrie may still return, but if he doesn't perform next season he will be gone.

This is how sad our fan base has become. Do you enjoy losing, folks? Jeremy Guthrie is 24-29 over the past 2 1/2 years with a 4.27 ERA. Everyone is so jacked up over "what he did in 2008". He was 10-12! If he had been 15-8 or something like that I could understand. But we're talking about a guy with a career LOSING RECORD. Even great pitchers on bad teams still find ways to win because they can te the competition. Guthrie has a good every once in a while but that's just not good enough and the fact that we accept that type of performance is ridiculous.

The fans of this team worry about keeping guys like Guthrie, Huff and Mora but why? Why should this team accept mediocrity? I don't want players like this anymore. I want winners. I want guys who are going to go out and do everything they can to stomp a mudhole in someone every night. No more guys on the corners hitting .240. No more 10-12 pitchers.

So trade Guthrie now while you can still get something for him. Let our young guys pitch. Guthrie has proven he is a sub-.500 pitcher. It never has been good enough though we've been conditioned to accept it. Let him go.

Good points, Mark but I don't think you can get anything for him. One has to give serious consideration to the theory that the WBC ruined his year and that's a topic, Dan, for another day. I agree with those who say give him a shot next year. It's likely the rotation going into next April will be Bergensen, Tillman, Matuez, Hernandez so why not make Guthrie your number 5 starter and let Arietta and Patton get a little more seasoning? When he's on, Guthrie is a number 4 or 5 starter.

Hello I think you are right you cant hate on a player as much as the fans are doing this year. They all have great season and at time have horrid ones. And the team is in the rebuilding process at the moment. I would like to see him stick around and see what he can offer next year.

Guthrie was very good last year. The drop in his performance in a year says to me that something is going on with him. One telling tale about the Orioles relationship with him is that when it was known that he wins with Zahn, they trade Zahn. Pretty sad. This organization clearly does not want anyone to speak out. When Ravens players expressed their concerns, we got a new coach and a winning season. Something is terribly wrong with the Orioles organization. By the way, why does the hitting coach Crawley still have a job. Everyone else has been replaced; why not him.

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