O's defense a plus or a minus?
Empirically, at least, the Orioles look like an outstanding defensive team. But I thought it would be fun to take a quick glance at what the numbers say.
As Sports Illustrated recently noted, analysts have come a long way in their ability to measure defensive quality. Even 10 years ago, defensive stats were like first-grade finger paintings compared to the Van Goghs we had for measuring offense. But no longer. My favorite system of defensive statistics is John Dewan's +/- rating, which he created for his excellent book, The Fielding Bible. Dewan's company, Baseball Info Solutions, actually reviews every play made by every MLB defender and compares each one to a database of similar plays. The system then counts how many unusually good and how many unusually poor plays a defender makes. The difference between the two is expressed as a +/- rating.
The system confirms that Orioles fans should be excited to have Cesar Izturis at shortstop. Izturis ranked third among all starting shortstops last year with a +19 rating. He was particularly superb on balls hit in the hole. Juan Castro, Alex Cintron and Freddie Bynum were a combined -19 at shortstop last year. Even if Izturis doesn't hit, he will help the Orioles.
The system rated Brian Roberts as an average to slightly above average second baseman in 2006 and 2007. But he fell to slightly below average last year with a -3 rating. He was solid on balls hit at him or to his right but poor on balls hit to his left. Roberts affords the Orioles a huge offensive advantage compared to other second basemen but might only help them break even defensively.
Melvin Mora rated as an average third baseman in 2006 and 2007 but plummeted to a -13 last year, 34th among regulars at the position. Anomaly or sign of decay for an older player? We'll see, but it's an area of concern, especially considering that Ty Wigginton has always been a poor defender at third, according to the system.
Aubrey Huff is hard to measure, because he has played only about 620 innings at first base over the last three years. He graded as a -2 for those innings. But Huff at first seems like decent idea under the defensive spectrum philosophy espoused by Bill James. James placed all defensive positions on a continuum, with shortstop the most difficult and first base the easiest. In general, he argued, good defensive teams have players at the easier positions who are capable of playing the more difficult ones. Huff wasn't a good third baseman, but the mere fact that he could play the more difficult position suggests that he's overqualified for first base.
Under the same principle, the Orioles are lucky to have Felix Pie, a capable center fielder, in left. Both Adam Jones and Nick Markakis rate as outstanding defenders at their positions, with Jones at +4 in 2008 and Markakis at +12. It's not exactly a shock to hear, but outfield defense should be a strength for this club.
At catcher, Gregg Zaun threw decently last year but hasn't thrown out more than 28 percent of base runners since 2003. If it's a comfort, he's no worse than Ramon Hernandez, whose throwing declined substantially after an excellent 2006. If the scouting reports are correct, Matt Wieters could solve this problem soon.
So in general, the numbers seem to support fan perceptions of the club's defense. The Orioles are sound up the middle and fast in the outfield with relative weaknesses at the infield corners. That's a pretty good defensive profile.
Comments
I like a lot of new statistics, but this one stinks.
"Unusually good" or "unusually bad?" How about just plain making the normal plays? The one's that Mora makes on a regular basis and Wigginton has already struggled with. Or the one's Roberts is able to make regularly that Gomez does not.
In my opinion, Roberts is better going to his left than to his right.
Watch the games and you'll see how good a defense a team has or doesn't have. Give me a new stat.
Posted by: Dan | April 15, 2009 12:44 PM
Here a stat for you......50% of all commenters think they know everything and the other 50% complain about everything. Your an anomaly that managed to do both. CONGRATS!!!!
Posted by: Jay | April 15, 2009 2:16 PM
It was a great idea for an article. I see no reason to spout off with the grumpiness. Weezers be damned!
Posted by: phil | April 15, 2009 5:15 PM
Having 1st and 3rd as "weak" spots doesn't bother me too much. Just about every 1st baseman is a bit weak in the field, otherwise they would be playing somewhere else. I have to believe Mora would rate at least Avg at 3rd and teams have won with the likes of Killebrew and Deron Johnson at 3rd. I think the O's defense is FAR superior to last yrs group. Scott was OK in left but not great. Mora (IMO) had an off yr and SS was a disaster. This is a good enough def. for a pennant winning team. The hitting is getting close too. Now if they could only figure out how to pitch......
Posted by: Oriole1952 | April 15, 2009 5:16 PM
Markakis should have won a Gold Glove Last Year. Do you know the +/- of the three OFs who won Gold Gloves in the AL last year?
Posted by: Mr. Deez | April 15, 2009 6:03 PM