Bill James talks O's, HOF and more ...
It's easy to call Bill James something cute like the "Sultan of Stats" and leave it at that. But such a
moniker undersells James' role in changing the way we've looked at baseball over the past 30 years. Starting with his annual Abstracts in the late 1970s, he poured out a blend of philosophy, criticism, history, wit and yes, statistics, that buzzed the minds of thousands of fans (some of them, future baseball executives.) I know that when I picked up his Historical Baseball Abstract at age 13, it changed my relationship with the game. No longer did the players of old feel like myths captured in scratchy black-and-white photos. He helped me understand how they played and how to relate that to the game of my era. Almost 20 years later, the book remains one of my favorites. Many fans were surprised when James, a consumate outsider and self-described argumentative cuss, joined the Red Sox front office. It might be sheer coincidence that the club finally won a World Series with him on board. But I don't think so. The Red Sox's embrace of statistical analysis, combined with financial muscle, has made them baseball's model franchise. James still works for the Red Sox, but he has also started a Web site that allows him to interact directly with readers and has returned to publishing an annual, the Bill James Gold Mine. He recently agreed to field a few questions from the Toy Department.
TD: Is there any player on the Orioles whom you particularly enjoy watching or following? If so
why?
BJ: Is there ever. Brian Roberts. There isn't any player in the majors that I enjoy watching more. I think the reasons are obvious ... plays hard, no matter where the game is, does a lot of things well.
TD: In the Gold Mine, you noted the Orioles' exceptional performance with runners in scoring position last season. Does that suggest their offense was a bit lucky and is likely to regress to the mean in that area?
BJ: Well, I think most people who have studied it are skeptical that there is a real skill there.
TD: Does Nick Markakis remind you strongly of any other player?
BJ: Dave Kingman? Luis Aparicio? Who are you going for here? As a hitter, he reminds me some of Mike Greenwell, used to be with the Red Sox, but I wasn't a Red Sox fan in those years and I'm
not sure how reliable my visual memory of Greenwell is. Besides which, Markakis is vastly better in the field. So I guess the answer is "no" unless you want to refresh my memory.
TD: You've written that players with many skills tend to age better than more one-dimensional performers; does that augur well for Markakis?
BJ: Well, it seems too early in his career to talk about Markakis aging. Don't we have to wait until we're sure he's at his peak before we start talking about aging?
TD: Baltimore is very excited about Matt Wieters. Does he have the best minor league
performance record of any catching prospect you can remember?
BJ: Yeah, I was trying to remember when a young catcher came up who looked this good. I suppose Joe Mauer, but Mauer didn't perform in the minors at the same level.
TD: Much is made of Wieters' height. Do you expect that he will spend the bulk of his career at catcher, assuming that he's as solid defensively as many scouts say?
BJ: Exceptional players often don't fit the profile. Cal Ripken was the tallest shortstop anybody could remember ... didn't matter, because he had unique skills.
TD: Does the difficulty of the position make Wieters a more uncertain prospect than comparable hitters at most other positions?
BJ: No. But very often there are "start-up glitches" in the careers of young catchers.
TD: Many fans here believe that even if the Orioles are on the right track as an organization, the AL East will remain a daunting mountain to climb in the foreseeable future. Do you agree?
BJ: I can't foresee anything. But one certainly can't foresee when the division won't be tough.
TD: Is there a player (any team) who interests you most going into this season? An issue or storyline?
BJ: I'm interested to see how Matt Holliday does in Oakland. Pittsburgh has a couple of really interesting young players, in Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche. And Nelson Cruz in Texas.
TD: Your colleague, John Dewan, recently posted about his realization that defense might be roughly half as important as offense. Does that feel right to you in light of all the research you've done over the years?
BJ: I haven't studied the article yet.
TD: If defense is the area where statistical analysis is progressing most, what are the biggest unanswered questions about it?
Well, it's not exactly a question of unanswered questions, because a sixth grader could give you the questions and we have answers. It's an issue of confidence. When we have multiple people studying the same issues, looking at them from different angles, and they're all getting about the same answers, then we can have confidence in those answers. We're approaching that point, but it takes time.
TD: Have you found your work with the Red Sox rewarding in different ways than any of your previous work? If so, how?
BJ: I suppose the biggest thing I enjoy about it is learning about the game in different ways, coming to understand, to some extent, the problems that everybody is dealing with in trying to produce a championship.
Something you can simply never appreciate, except from the inside, is the vast number of people who contribute to a championship season. The minor league manager who taught your No. 2 starter to throw a slider. The organization's outfield defense instructor who worked with your left fielder on playing a ball off the wall. The scout who found your relief ace. The cross-checkers who OK'ed the drafting of the relief ace. The contract negotiators who worked out a deal with the second baseman. The intern who spotted the fact that another organization might be ready to give up on a pitcher we could use. It's literally hundreds and hundreds of people, and you can never see that from the outside.
TD: Do you anticipate writing a book about your time with the Red Sox? Would too much of your work with the club be considered proprietary?
BJ: Too much of it would be proprietary. And also, I don't really know what I would say. I don't even like answering your damned questions about the Red Sox, to tell you the truth.
TD: Do you believe Curt Schilling will make the Hall of Fame? 
BJ: He should. There's a good chance he will, but the fact is that unless you're Cal Ripken, the Hall of Fame is kind of a hit-and-miss proposition.
TD: Speaking of the Hall, do you expect that we will view steroids differently in say, 10 or 20 years? Is there a comparable issue or story in the game's history that had people so initially perplexed?
BJ: Gambling was an issue like this, until it was revealed that the gamblers had fixed the World Series. Once it was learned that players had fixed the World Series, then the public was united against them. Until then, though, it was a divisive and confusing issue.
TD: Barry Bonds is, on paper, probably the greatest player since Babe Ruth and certainly the greatest of the last few decades. Do you think of him as such?
BJ: Certainly.
TD: I've read that you're finishing a book on great unsolved crimes. Did you approach the cases in the same way that you might an unanswered baseball question? When will the book be published?
BJ: There's no stat analysis in the book, but people who have read my books over the years will recognize a lot of the type of thinking, I hope. I'll have it to the publisher in a couple of months.







Comments
I have a Markakis comparison: Paul O'Neill. Both hit for average with decent power (20-30 HR). Both had very similar batting stances with the same "power alley" between left-center and right-center field. Both have decent but not great speed on the base paths. Both play great defense (slight edge to Cakes) with rocket arms. I struggled to find a comparison for Cakes for a long time when it suddenly hit me.
Posted by: Mr. Deez | April 1, 2009 9:48 AM
So, you're telling me that the Orioles actually overachieved last year? When they regress to the mean this year, exactly where's that going to take them?
James seems like a frosty interview. I guess you're not going to get much personality from a number cruncher.
Posted by: J | April 1, 2009 3:26 PM
"Cakes" = Jim Palmer, HOF.
Let's give our new star his own nickname, please.
Posted by: Mobtown Matt | April 1, 2009 7:28 PM
bria roberts=dave kingman.......you should be laid off!!!
Posted by: Anonymous | April 1, 2009 9:08 PM
my bad...nick=kingman.....gimme' a break. does markakis hit .209 with 250k's. and no assist in the outfield? why bring kingman up in this conservasion?
Posted by: Anonymous | April 1, 2009 9:12 PM
eddie murray is the best_______________ of all-time?
Posted by: Anonymous | April 1, 2009 9:16 PM
fill in the blanks____
oriole way pitching is:
#1. work ____
#2. _____ strikes
#3. change ______
Posted by: Anonymous | April 1, 2009 9:18 PM
Well you were certainly right about him being an argumentative cuss. It sounded like someone made him talk to you under pain of death.
Posted by: dcterp | April 1, 2009 10:40 PM