Why the Ravens should pass on drafting a wide receiver in 1st round
I like Darrius Heyward-Bey a lot. As a person, he's just about everything a reporter could ask for. He's a smart, funny guy who is a great quote, mainly because he isn't afraid to tell you what he thinks. It's no secret that wide receivers have become the Beyonces and the J-Los of the NFL. Most of the good ones are divas who need constant pampering, or else they'll throw tantrums, but Heyward-Bey doesn't fit that mold. He's a great kid. I want to see him succeed in the NFL, and fulfill the ridiculous potential he has because he possesses the rare combination of size (6 feet 3) and speed (4.3 in the 40).
But if I were Ozzie Newsome, I'd let someone else take that risk. Because even though Maryland had quarterback issues throughout Heyward-Bey's career, which helps explain his underwhelming production, it's way too easy to fall in love with wide receivers prior to the draft. Wide receivers are like race horses. When they're young, everyone has their theories, but no one really has any idea which ones will be good, and which ones will be a waste. I went to a horse auction a few years ago after the Preakness and watched an entire room full of trainers throw around thousands of dollars on horses just hoping to find one good one in 10. It was a good primer for this year's draft.
The success rate of wideouts drafted in the first round in the last 10 years is pitiful. And Heyward-Bey is no different. There are a lot of Ravens fans, as well as NFL GMs, mesmerized right now by his physical tools, but when it comes to the first round, you're more likely to get burned by potential than you are pleasantly surprised by it. Wide receivers are the hardest position in the NFL to evaluate, there is no way the Ravens should take that gamble, even on someone with character like Heyward-Bey, despite the continued lobbying of Maryland fans. (Frankly, they should know better than anyone that Heyward-Bey can drive you mad with his inconsistency.)
Windows aren't open very long in the NFL. After getting to the AFC championship game last year, the team would be better off signing a proven player (Torry Holt?) or trading for a potential star (Anquan Boldin) than they would playing the lottery of picking a wideout in the first round, hoping he'll emerge three years from now. Because that's the best-case scenario: three years before the pick even begins to pay off, if at all.
There were no wide receivers drafted in the first round last year, but let's look at wide receivers drafted in the first round over the 10-year period from 1999, the year before the Ravens won the Super Bowl, to 2008. The results (below) should scare you.
Even when you find a player who is productive, there is a decent chance he'll be a headcase. And finding a star at the bottom of the first round? You're about as likely to find one in the second or third round. You just end up paying your misses a lot less money. With as well as the Ravens evaluate defensive talent, they should just continue to draft defenders and trade them for proven receivers. Because look how easy it is to miss on wideouts.
Let's look at the results on a year-by-year basis.
1999 -- Torry Holt (Rams, 6th), David Boston (Cardinals, 8th), Troy Edwards (Steelers, 13th).
Pro Bowl WR drafted in Round 1: Holt, Boston
Pro Bowl WR drafted outside Round 1: Marty Booker, Donald Driver, Sean Morey (special teams).
Analysis: Boston's one Pro Bowl selection almost shouldn't count, since he was suspected of steroid use throughout his career, and eventually tested positive for both steroids and growth hormone. He was also charged with a DUI late in his career. Holt is a seven-time Pro Bowl selection, and one of only a handful of wide receivers in the last 10 years (as you'll soon learn) who justified being selected as high as he was. Edwards, despite a prolific college career, was a total bust.
2000 -- Peter Warrick (Bengals, 4th), Plaxico Burress (Steelers, 8th), Travis Taylor (Ravens, 10th), Slyvester Morris (Chiefs, 21st), R. Jay Soward (Jaguars, 29th).
Pro Bowl WR drafted in Round 1: None
Pro Bowl WR drafted outside Round 1: Laveranues Coles, Dante Hall (kick returner).
Analysis: Of those five players, only Burress came close to living up to his potential (although he was still named to zero Pro Bowls), and he only did it with his second team (Giants), and then proceeded to screw that up by shooting himself in the leg with a handgun at a New York City nightclub. Morris was hobbled by injuries and Soward's career wrecked by substance abuse. Taylor never had a 1,000-yard season with the Ravens, and was arrested and tasered by police outside a Minneapolis night club in 2007.
2001 -- David Terrell (Bears, 8th), Koren Robinson (Seahawks, 9th) Rod Gardner (Redskins, 15th), Santana Moss (Jets, 16th), Freddie Mitchell (Eagles, 25th), Reggie Wayne (Colts, 29th).
Pro Bowl WR drafted in Round 1: Robinson, Moss, Wayne.
Pro Bowl WR drafted outside Round 1: Chad Johnson, Chris Chambers, Steve Smith, T.J. Houshmandzadah, Alex Bannister (special teams selection).
Analysis: A little better track record than the previous season, but still more busts in Round 1 than Pro Bowlers. Even then, alcohol problems derailed the career of Robinson, Moss didn't truly emerge as a consistent threat until he was with his second team, and it took Wayne four seasons of playing with the league's best quarterback before he emerged as an elite wideout. Terrell lasted only four seasons in the NFL, and neither Gardner nor Mitchell is still in the league.
2002 -- Donte Stallworth (Saints, 13th), Ashley Lelie (Broncos, 19th), Javon Walker (Packers, 20th).
Pro Bowl WR drafted in Round 1: Walker
Pro Bowl WR drafted outside Round 1: None
Analysis: A bad draft for wide receivers in general. Worth pointing out that Lelie is now playing for his fourth team, Walker his third, and Stallworth his third. Stallworth is also facing second-degree manslaughter charges for an alleged DUI.
2003 -- Charles Rodgers (Lions, 2nd), Andre Johnson (Texans, 3rd), Bryant Johnson (Cardinals, 17th).
Pro Bowl WR drafted in Round 1: A. Johnson
Pro Bowl WR drafted outside Round 1: Anquan Boldin
Analysis: Rodgers and Johnson were both highly productive in college, but quickly flamed out in the NFL. Boldin turned out to be a great example of why workouts aren't everything when it comes to playing wideout. At the combine, he ran a 4.71 in the 40, and his rookie season with the Cardinals, he caught 101 passes. Rodgers, who ran a 4.28 in pre-draft workouts, never had a 100-yard receiving game in the NFL, and failed three drug tests before the Lions eventually released him. Bryant Johnson is with his third team and has never caught 50 passes in a single season.
2004 -- Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals, 3rd), Roy Williams (Lions, 7th), Reggie Williams (Jaguars, 9th), Lee Evans (Bills, 13th), Michael Clayton (Bucs, 15th), Michael Jenkins (Falcons, 29th)
Pro Bowl WR Drafted in Round 1: Fitzgerald, Williams
Pro Bowl WR Drafted outside Round 1: Wes Welker (undrafted)
Analysis: Although Williams does have a Pro Bowl on his resume (he was an alternate who played after an injury to Torry Holt in 2007), he's in danger of turning into a bust after catching just 19 passes in 10 games after being traded to the Cowboys. Only Fitzgerald truly lived up to his potential, becoming one of the best in the NFL at his position. Once again, substance abuse problems pop up, as Reggie Williams was arrested twice while with the Jaguars, and charged with felony cocaine possession the second time.
2005 -- Braylon Edwards (Browns, 3rd), Troy Williamson (Vikings, 7th), Mike Williams (Lions, 10th), Matt Jones (Jaguars, 21st), Mark Clayton (Ravens, 22nd), Roddy White (Falcons, 27th).
Pro Bowl WR Drafted in Round 1: Edwards, White
Pro Bowl WR Drafted outside Round 1: Johnny Mathis (kick returner).
Analysis: Another so-so draft for wide receivers. White made the Pro Bowl in 2008, but Edwards is the only player who developed into a anything resembling a star. (Although Cleveland is trying to trade him after he led the league in dropped passes last year.) Clayton has been a solid starter and may take yet another step forward, but at 5 feet 10, it's hard to imagine he'll be a dominant player. This draft was also plagued by busts. Williamson, who has size and speed comparable with Heyward-Bey, has just career 84 career catches. Williams played for three teams before being released by the Titans last year, and at one point he weighed 270 pounds. Jones was arrested in 2008 and charged with felony drug possession, and arrested again for violating his probation.
2006 -- Santonio Holmes (Steelers, 25th)
Pro Bowl WR Drafted in Round 1: None
Pro Bowl WR Drafted outside Round 1: Brandon Marshall
Analysis: Holmes has been pretty successful on the field -- he did catch the game-winning pass in the Super Bowl, and was the game's MVP -- but he's also been arrested twice, once for assault and once for marijuana possession. Marshall has also been arrested multiple times, including once for domestic violence. Marques Colston, drafted in the seventh round by the Saints, has had a promising start to his career.
2007 -- Calvin Johnson (Lions, 2nd), Ted Ginn Jr. (Dolphins, 9th), Dwayne Bowe (Chiefs, 23rd), Robert Meachem (Saints, 27th), Craig Davis (Chargers, 30th), Anthony Gonzalez (Colts, 31st).
Pro Bowl WR Drafted in Round 1: None.
Pro Bowl WR Drafted outside Round 1: None.
Analysis: It's too early to evaluate most of this draft, but that also makes a strong case for why the Ravens shouldn't be reaching for a wideout in the first round when they're one game away from the Super Bowl. Johnson is most likely going to be a star, and Bowe has compiled 2,017 receiving yards in his first two seasons. Ginn had a promising second season. Davis spent most of his second year on injured reserve.
Lastly, look at the 15 wide receivers who were in the Pro Bowl more than twice over that span, from 1999 to 2008. Only six of them were first-round picks.
Marvin Harrison, 1st-round pick (8 times)
Torry Holt, 1st-round pick (6 times)
Terrell Owens, 3rd-round pick (6 times)
Chad Johnson, 2nd-round pick (5 times)
Randy Moss, 1st-round pick (5 times)
Hines Ward, 3rd-round pick (4 times)
Issac Bruce, 2nd-round pick (3 times)
Jimmy Smith, 2nd-round pick (3 times)
Joe Horn, 5th-round pick (3 times)
Donald Driver, 7th-round pick (3 times)
Anquan Boldin, 2nd-round pick (3 times)
Reggie Wayne, 1st-round pick (3 times)
Steve Smith, 3rd-round pick (3 times)
Larry Fitzgerald, 1st-round pick (3 times)
Andre Johnson, 1st-round pick (3 times)
Of the 33 wide receivers drafted in the first round during that stretch, 11 made at least one Pro Bowl, but only Holt, Wayne, Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson played in more than one.
By comparison, 14 other wide receivers not drafted in the first round also made the Pro Bowl during that spam. And Steve Smith, Chad Johnson and Aquan Boldin all played in more than one. (I'm including the three special teams players because at least their teams got something out of those picks. If you miss on a first-round receiver and he doesn't play on teams, it was a complete waste. And you also might have to bail him out of jail.)
It's such a roll of the dice, you almost have as good a chance of finding a gem in the third round as you do the first.
So, with all that in mind, still think the Ravens should grab Heyward-Bey, or any receiver really, if he's there?
in Ravens, Today's Special
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Comments
Excellent job!
While the Ravens need a WR in a bad way, I wouldn't mind to see them go defensive or offensive line.
Posted by: J | April 17, 2009 11:40 PM
Kevin:
Nice analysis....but two big problems...without taking the time to analyze other positions, I am sure I could come up with the same reasons as not to draft a quarterback, running back, tight end, etc., etc...... and secondly....Heyward-Bey will not be available when the Ravens pick...
Posted by: terplike | April 17, 2009 11:55 PM
I agree with terplike. Your analysis could reasonably be mirrored by most every position. The statistics you mention are just as much an indictment of the draft process as a crapshoot, as it is of first round receivers.
Most interesting is the percentage of receivers that run afoul of the law.
Still, I agree that the best-player-available tactic will payoff the most.
We're with you, Ozzie.
Posted by: Mark in DE | April 18, 2009 8:38 AM
KVV, I totally agree. QB's and WR's are like tech stocks, when they hit man they hit. When they don't they are hardly worth the paper used for the contract. Ask the Lions. If you don't feel it's a sure hit, don't do it. Ask the Lions about that one. Let someone else develop them and then take em. Or grab gems late. DHB is high on the board because the board is thin after Crabtree and his physical skills. I want to succeed in the worst way, but I am not sure I want the Ravens to be the experiment.
Posted by: Doug | April 18, 2009 9:37 AM
I think you'd definitely find similar results if you looked at quarterbacks and possibly interior defensive lineman over the last 10 years. But the rest of the positions are much easier to evaluate. Let's say, best case scenario, Heyward-Bay becomes Reggie Wayne. (There is just no way he becomes Larry Fitzgerald.) Well, Wayne was in his fourth season before he had 1,000-yard season. This Ray Lewis and Ed Reed can be healthy and play at an elite level four years from now? It really surprises me that the Ravens seem to have almost no interest in Torry Holt.
Posted by: Kevin Van Valkenburg | April 18, 2009 9:48 AM
Rashaun Woods from OK State was also drafted in Round 1 in 2004 by the 49ers (31st overall). BUST.
Posted by: Jeff | April 18, 2009 11:54 AM
I think Holt's knee injury is a little more serious than people think. that is why no one has signed him yet. same with McAlister.
Get Boldin, win another Ring.
Posted by: SHAMROCK | April 18, 2009 12:42 PM
Actually, it's just the opposite. Sure, there are WR busts from the first round, but that's the case for every position. In fact, compared to other positions, there is a *very* steep drop off in the likelihood of finding a top WR anywhere after the first couple taken. And after the first round, the chances of finding a top receiver drop precipitously.
See this article for the stats.
Posted by: Brian Burke | April 18, 2009 1:50 PM
I agree with the anlysis, to a degree. Clearly, the WR position is much more difficult to assess. Since it typically takes 3 years for a WR to develop at the next level, you can find better WRs with the skills and potential in the 3rd round and later. But can you afford that bust in the first round? That first selection has to be someone that can make a difference immediately and we could use another center or DE. We'll have to see who falls to #26. And considering the ize of the WRs already on the roster, we may have our gem ready to break out..
Posted by: Friggenwacko | April 18, 2009 2:05 PM
While the Ravens need a WR in a bad way, I wouldn't mind to see them go defensive or offensive line.
Posted by: joseph raab | April 18, 2009 3:13 PM
While Boldin would be a great immediate upgrade it might be worth remembering there was a lot more wrong with the Ravens' passing game than just the wide receivers; the line the running backs the QB and last but not least the Offensive Coordinator. Much of that seems to be improved now and w, while our present bunch is not in Boldin's class, they are not that bad.
Quickly, can anyone name me the great receivers Tom Brady had when winning those three Super Bowls? Remember, Randy Moss was not there yet.
Boldin would help but missing out on him would not be the end of the world either.
Posted by: Vengloss | April 18, 2009 4:52 PM
I agree with you all the way on this. I think Ozzie does a great job of thinking of his first round picks as guys that will be here for at least eight or ten years. He picks best player available because he knows a bust in the first round when you pick by need might hurt the team three or four years dow the line. I think people are too high on speed when it comes to wide reciever. If Jerry Rice was in this draft out of college people would be thinking that Heyward Bey is ten times better. Route running is what makes recievers great in the NFL. Corners are fast too and safeties protect in this league. If a corner knows you don't run good routes and knows he can break on a route with ease because you don't square off your routes properly, they can give you more cushion so you don't beat them deep and they can just jump the route. I like Vontae Davis as a one and I love Brian Robiski in the second. Other than Fitzgerald and Moss, there aren't any other recievers that could get by not running good routes and Fitzgerald and Moss happen to also be pretty good route runners.
Posted by: corey | April 18, 2009 6:29 PM
The fact that Peter Warrick was a bust didn't make Andre Johnson any less likely to become a star.
Getting scared off by previous failures is exactly why people didn't want to take Flacco last year.
A loser mentality will insure a losing team.
We need a WR. Just because Matt Millen didn't know how to pick them, doesn't mean we'll strike out, too.
Posted by: Ryan K | April 18, 2009 8:04 PM
This "Bust" mentality will keep our offense at the botom for years to come. Not much use in having a good QB if you are afrraid to get him a quality wr to throw to! You listed as many good 1st rd receivers as you did bust, so I fail to see a good reason not to take a we in rd. 1. And there is no way Robiske or any other decent wr will be there by the time the Ravens pick in rd. 2 or later. So we go into te new season with an older Mason and a hope that Williams can stay on the field for more than 1 week. Wow, Steelers will be shaking in their boots!! And I guess it's a foregone conclusion that Clayton will finally put back to back good seasons together Watch out Manning and Harrison, all your records are in jepordy! Reggie who? The Ravens need to show some testes and make a bold move in this draft. Not saying they ake a wr just to take one, it needs to be one of the top ones in this draft, DHB, Hicks, Macklin or the kid from Rutgers, can't think of his name. But they need to address the need. Seems most of the Sun reporters want to shy away from making a deal for Boldin, so the Ravens need to draft one. Ok, I am done ranting.
Posted by: Henry Gardner | April 18, 2009 8:53 PM
Although i agree with your general conclusions, i don't thinking making the Pro Bowl or not is the best way of judging their success e.g., Lee Evans http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/stats?playerId=5538
Kenny Britt definitely fits the diva description http://www.draftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/wr/Kenny-Britt.php
I am worried that the Ravens will be tempted to take him.
You also wrote "Clayton has been a solid starter and may take yet another step forward, but at 5 feet 10, it's hard to imagine he'll be a dominant player." Carolina's Steve Smith is only 5'9".
Posted by: dave | April 18, 2009 9:54 PM
The WR position is very important so that FLACCO can maximize the use of his wonderful passing ability and potential for scoring! The TE position also will help to "showcase" FLacco's skills! I believe Mason needs a back-up that has his "great instincts" in case he needs a rest---for whatever reason! Nicks, Britt, and Robiskie seem like good second choices to Heyward-Bey(if unavailable at pick 26)
Posted by: Noelle | April 18, 2009 9:56 PM
Steve Smith is one of the most hyper-competitive people alive, and he might be a little bit crazy. Clayton is a quiet, humble kid who reads his Bible by his locker every day. Now, as a person, I'd go with Clayton every time, but I'm not sure you can be a dominant WR at 5-foot-10 without a dominant personality. As for the other point, I just think it's weird the way people seem to be so in love with Heyward-Bey here. I honestly think it's mostly people who didn't actually watch Maryland games. Hakeem Nicks had more 100-yard games last season than Hey-Bey did in his entire career.
Posted by: Kevin Van Valkenburg | April 18, 2009 10:16 PM
" hyper-competitive people alive" Do you mean like putting an entire comment in BOLD ?
"As for the other point..." Did i make a comment about Heyward-Bey ?
Posted by: dave | April 18, 2009 10:55 PM
My comments are in bold because I'm essentially the moderator here. It's not meant to shout anyone down. It's just meant to separate stuff that Toy Department staffers say from commentators. That's all.
Posted by: Kevin Van Valkenburg | April 18, 2009 11:33 PM
Understood, but unusual. Have never seen that on any board of any type before.
Btw, i have a suspicion that the FO will be relieved if/when Heyward-Bey is picked before #26 because they think that he's a boom or bust, too. And, i agree with you that when we're one game away from the Super Bowl we shouldn't waste that pick on such a chancy proposition.
Posted by: dave | April 19, 2009 1:20 AM
Why is it about this time every year, every local sports reporter, blogger, and talk show host suddenly becomes smarter than the Oz and starts telling him what he should be doing? It will be interesting to see what happens, but, whatever it is, I'll put my trust in his decision over any of the local armchair quarterback "experts."
Posted by: Fikenhild | April 19, 2009 9:38 AM
Kevin,
Everyone is caught up in DHB because people here love the local angle.
Look at Mark Texiera. Tell me how much difference he would make to the Orioles right about now; yet being a local guy counts for something.
If Mike Preston had come out of Towson at the same time as JO you better believe there would be fans would have rather selected him instead of JO.
If Ozzie can get Boldin for a good price then do it, otherwise, I'm sure we'll be fine. Again, its hard to know which particular piece makes for a HOF passing game. Elway, Brady and Favre won with very good receivers but I bet most people can't name them right now.
Posted by: Vengloss | April 19, 2009 9:44 AM
Why is it the Sun never does articles like this?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/sports/football/19ravens.html?ref=sports
Posted by: Vengloss | April 19, 2009 11:06 AM
I agree with those who point out that the history of any position might come down to a crap shoot, and any ten-year span might produce different results. More, it might boil down to effective scouting--some teams, like the Ravens, have a high percentage of players lasting and contributing over time than others. Also, while I think Boldin is good, I suspect his numbers might be less on a team without a receiver as distracting and outstanding as Fitzgerald.
Posted by: Fred Shochet | April 19, 2009 12:15 PM
Proof read at least once from now on, would you Kevin? What ever happened to publications having editors? Your spelling and grammar are annoyingly poor. I realize you're just a sports blogger, but come on. Be a professional. The article is smart enough, all you have to do to back it up is fix the parts that make it look like a sixth grader wrote it during homeroom.
Posted by: Cliff | April 19, 2009 1:23 PM
Nicely done. I do think we pass, 1st and 3rd is just too much.
Not worth it.
I remember my Jamal Lewis fantasy draft, ho ho ho here I go....
sunk when he was injured preseason.
The era of bad receivers was under that guy...Billick wasn't it? (how soon I don't forget, Brian we liked ya except when you forgot that offense can win football games).
Draft and build, it works.
Smith and Flacco...wow!
An o-line that can block!
I'm partying on kool-aide right now and we haven't even started the draft,
trade down, get a 2nd and a 3rd (if you can).
Let Ozzie run, he may make mistakes but good grief he's been amazing and still people whine about him.
Every time someone leaves its a time for gloom and doom but dang Ozzie never seems to notice.
And Kyle, who knows what might have happened if he'd ever had an offensive line and could have played more then two plays without whiplash and grass stains?
Posted by: Ed Lulie | April 19, 2009 5:34 PM
I agree with your logic. I suggest taking WV quarterback Pat White in the second round as a wide receiver, as I think he will still be available. He has a great head on his shoulders, is an excellent athlete, and would make an excellent receiver or running back, and also be able to be the 3rd quarterback in an emergency. Also,I don't think he expects to be drafted as a quarterback as he didn't get high marks from the combine. I think he could be a multi- dimensional player for us.
Posted by: woodieman | April 19, 2009 8:48 PM
Sorry, but Heyward -Bey, even for all the hype, will not go in the first round. This is all feint and subterfuge by the teams, including the Ravens. Bey is not a good route runner,does not fight for the ball, and does not have good hands. He will still be there late in the second round, and will probably drop to the third.
The Ravens will not trade draft choices for Boldin. He has a lot of miles on him and his best years are probably behind him.
I predict that the Ravens will not draft a wide receiver until the third round, but they will draft several and get good value.
Posted by: Gil Jr | April 19, 2009 10:33 PM
Barden in Round 3 (PLEASE!), and go get AB for a 1 and a 3. Heck, I could see McGahee going in this deal and the Ravens keeping their #1.
Posted by: CEAlex | April 19, 2009 11:43 PM
trade defensive players, when was the last time oz traded surplus players (brown,scott, etc.) for draft picks. we just let them gooooooo draft the best player at # 26
Posted by: al engelskirch | April 20, 2009 5:14 AM
Great analogy with the auction for race horses. Those trainers have no clue what they are getting until they are on the track. Even when they train real good they can be a complete bust and not win a race.
With that said, this is exactly why they need to make the trade for Boldin or go after another free agent who is comparable. The Ravens have so much depth RIGHT NOW as it is and to add a top number 1 receiver would put us over the top. If the goal is to win a Super Bowl, we need to get it done. Next year is an uncapped salary cap. I am sure Ozzie will know what to do when that happens. But for now, lets worry about this season and get back to the the Super Bowl.
Posted by: MIke | April 20, 2009 7:53 AM
Choked on my Cherrios reading that "character" matters to the Ravens when it comes to drafting players. What a joke.Before there was a Bengals bunch of orange suits, the Ravens were already there.
Posted by: Julie | April 23, 2009 9:14 AM