O's: For better and worse
If you haven't read my column in today's print edition, you can read it right here, but I have to explain something.
In the interest of advance planning for the holiday weekend, I wrote the column a couple of days early, and it's amazing how much has changed since then. It wasn't a positive column to begin with, but the Orioles were only a couple of days removed from winning that series over the Cincinnati Reds. Suddenly, their in the throes of a five-game losing streak and the rest of the division stopped cooperating a few weeks ago. They have fallen 14 1/2 games out of first place and are now 10 games under .500.
The point of my column remains the same. They are vastly improved over last year if all you look at is their won-loss record, but that doesn't mean they are one day closer to being a playoff contender. It's a pretty discouraging picture.
I will say this in their favor. Mark Reynolds, who was the subject of some serious bashing here because of his high error total, has delivered exactly what the Orioles hoped for when they acquired him. He's on pace to hit 35 home runs and strike out a lot less than last year. J.J. Hardy has been terrific and should be re-signed for the next two or three years before he realizes how much money he'll get as a free agent if he keeps playing like this. And the Orioles still have a nucleus of talented young players -- particularly Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Zach Britton, Jake Arrieta and (we can only hope) Brian Matusz. I'd throw Nolan Reimold in there if he ever got to play.
I'd like to see Buck Showalter move Reynolds into the cleanup spot and -- like everyone else -- I'd like to see how this team would play if a healthy Brian Roberts were at the top of the lineup. Hardy has done a fine job there, but it would certainly be nice to have both of them.
Sadly, it's going to take a lot of good things to happen for the O's to rebound in the second half and finish above .500, and good things don't exactly follow this team around. Last night's game was another example of that.
They played good, exciting baseball for eight of nine innings, but Luke Scott's miss in the outfield and Arrieta's poor command during two crucial at-bats were all it took to cost them another on a long lists of games they should have won this year.
So, I'm going to try to cheer you up by guaranteeing that the Orioles will win the finale of the three-game series at Turner Field today. I don't do that very often, but -- even if you don't eat your pre-game meal at McDonald's -- you deserve a break today.






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Comments
Mr. Schmuck,
Why is it that we can not get Nolan Reimold in the line up? Even DH him. It's not like we are contending for any thing.
My hopes are that some one wants DLee at the trade deadline, and why not move Reynolds to 1st Base or even move Scott to 1st and get Reimold in the outfield for a couple of weeks.
Posted by: Richard, Old O's fan | July 3, 2011 12:22 PM
Peter,
I think the silver lining here might be that the Os might have circumstances lining up to make a good trade. In recent years they have always been on the short end of circumstances leading up to the trade deadline. Whether they didn't have any valuable parts, or, they were playing encouraging baseball just enough to make selling valuable pieces a move unpopular and worthy of serious reconsideration.
I'd like to see a good trade.
Posted by: Eddie in NYC | July 3, 2011 12:28 PM
peter i would not call the orioles won lost record that much of an improvement.if they would show more patience at the plate then i might call that an improvement.like i have mentioned other times just because brian roberts is not plaing should not be a cause for the team to go in the tank. after reading about last nights game fiasco,yea i guess they might win today. it just looks like they do not have any fire in their belly.
Posted by: deputy dog | July 3, 2011 12:55 PM
Arrieta's fourth inning wasn't all it took. 0 for 4 w/ RISP (including two first pitch outs in those situations, one by Hardy) also helped the Braves.
Posted by: OriAl | July 3, 2011 12:57 PM
Pete,
Many teams have a nucleous of talented young players. The Orioles just don't have enough of them. This team could be better if Andy had acquired an impact bat in his prime for the middle of the lineup. There are always excuses coming out of the warehouse as to why it never happened. The bottom line is that it hasn't.
I also think that Reynolds defensive liabilities far exceed his intermittent long balls. Yes, he is on a pace for 35 Home Runs, but also for 40 errors. That just can't happen at this level.
Saying that the Orioles are vastly improved over last year is like saying the economy is improving because unemployment fell just under 10%...it's still awful...and so are the Orioles. What's new.
Posted by: Gil | July 3, 2011 1:00 PM
Thanks Pete for the called shot on tonights win. Your prognostication abilities worked the other night when you called up Nolan's HR in the pre-game show! (btw, you're looking a leaner these days...and they say the camera adds 10-15 lbs, so you must be in mid-season shape.)
Posted by: paulie | July 3, 2011 1:01 PM
Well, I think if the Orioles can avoid ruining the few good arms that are left and dump Vladimir Guerrero, who is clearly usless, we could make a run at 75 wins, a healthy increase of nine wins. Unfortunately, Buck, who is afraid of nobody, is afraid of Vlad.
Those who were predicting .500 or even better for this silly team were simply caught up in the ridiculous hype and should have known better.
Also, any deals the Orioles make by July 31 must be legitimate. No more Josh Bells. A legitimate prospect or starting player. If that's too much to ask for, let's just keep the guy we're trying to hawk. No more garbage trades.
Posted by: Fang | July 3, 2011 1:12 PM
You left out Wieters, and you used their instead of they're in the first paragraph.
Posted by: John | July 3, 2011 1:16 PM
Brian Roberts is not the savior that this column continues to portray him as. This team is the worst in the division without him, and for the past ten years it has been the worst in the division WITH him. The turnaround last year took place exactly when Showalter joined the team, weeks after Roberts came back and had precisely ZERO effect on the team's continued losing. The facts are clear on this, so please stop acting as though Roberts is the difference between 10 games under .500 and a competitive team! (unless you can back up this conjecture with evidence)
Roberts has missed 60% of the team's games over the last two years with backaches and headaches (curiously, starting to suffer from these persistent, vague injuries soon after signing his $40M/4yr extension in 2009, his last big payday). His numbers have been in steady decline for the past 4 seasons, and over the past two seasons he's hit a meager .254 with 7 HRs. He is no longer a leader within the clubhouse, and is becoming increasingly irrelevant to the fan base as well.
Roberts is not the difference between winning and losing for this team- he never has been even when he was earning his money on the field, and he certainly isn't now with his production in a free-fall over the past 4 years. It's a delusion and lazy journalism to think otherwise, and harmful to this team doing what it needs to do to truly become competitive.
Posted by: Andrew | July 3, 2011 1:19 PM
How are they "vastly improved over last year" based on their record? They are on pace to win 70 games. They won 67 last year. That seems only marginally better. If you compare this year's record so far to the second half of last year they are vastly worse. And I am so tired of hearing about playing in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. They haven't seen either team for the past 6 weeks, and up until Atlanta were playing mediocre teams or worse for the most part. Plus, with Tampa Bay consistently fielding a competitive team with no fans, and no money, we have to stop the poor me talk. Until we straighten out the minor league system the O's will remain about the same. You can't just have a nucleus of a few players. You need depth.
Posted by: tzolper | July 3, 2011 1:27 PM
Your articles have been insightful recently. This ,however,is not one of them. How often do the O's win on Sunday. I think they beat the Reds. Can we get away from the ;if we only had Brian Roberts . That is worn out and lame. This is a major league organization that shouls supposedly have adequate replacements to the extent that an injury to 1 player does not ruin a 162 game season.
Posted by: gilgamesh1 | July 3, 2011 1:30 PM
I noticed that a lot of teams have swooped in, signing the top Latin American players in the last two days (MLB Rumors). I also noticed the Orioles were entirely absent from the list of signing teams. McPhail's recent comments, where he expressed reluctance to pay much for Latin American players, doesn't offer much hope for the future. These are, after all, players you don't have to stand in line to draft.
Posted by: DonM | July 3, 2011 1:39 PM
While the record is better than last year, it still isn't good.
Four right handed hitters were signed or traded for and they still cannot beat lefties. The bullpen additions have turned out to be awful and the starters have taken a step, or two, back. There still is no long term 1st baseman and the minors are almost barren of position players of worth.
Buck can only do so much with what he has to work with. Isn't it time for AM to take the fall for the abysmal showing and lack of any substantial progress over the last 4+ years?
Posted by: Daydreamer | July 3, 2011 1:44 PM
Mark Reynolds, all they had hoped for? That comment bespeaks how comfortable you are with a losing organization. 35 home runs, 35 errors, and 175 strikeouts, and a .220 average.. Now, that's the New Oriole Way.
A healthy Brian Roberts? When, at age 35? (when the Orioles like to acquire players, like Lee and Vlad).
Glad to see you're not on the "when is Luke going to have a hot streak" bandwagon. Again, the organization allows him to play with a torn labrum, accepting Luke's "miracle cure" nonsense. Any organization with credibility would have put him on the DL long ago, to at least see if Pie or Reimhold are everyday players.
Posted by: LittleMugsy06 | July 3, 2011 2:10 PM
The rotation is looking like toast. And with our near league bottom in runs scored offense-that isnt a winning combo.
Posted by: Kurt N | July 3, 2011 2:58 PM
Why are our pitchers consistently hitting better than the rest of our batting order? We now have a good number of interleague games to look at, and whereas the heart of our order makes every opposing pitcher looks like Cy Young, our pitchers are getting it done at the plate night in and night out. I would be embarrassed if I were an Os hitter, and infuriated if I were a starting pitcher.
Hardy and Markakis on 2nd and 3rd with no outs. Jones pops out to first, Reynolds strikes out, and Lee pops out to short. For the love of god why does this team make it look so hard?!?!?
Posted by: Andrew | July 3, 2011 3:06 PM
Good call on the win today, Pete.
I don't have much to say about our O's these days. It's been another discouraging season with few bright spots, and my hope is waning.
As usual, this team needs to make some drastic changes if they ever want to compete, especially in this division. We all know what they need, so there's no use repeating it. The big questions are, does Andy MacPhail really have the balls to make a couple of franchise changing moves this winter, and will Peter Angelos let him spend the money to do so?
I'll believe it when I see it.
PS - I know I ask you this every time, Pete, but is this blog ever going to go back to the no approval format? It's a lot more fun that way.
Posted by: not brooks | July 3, 2011 5:54 PM
Well you did it again Pete, the O's barely survived to win the last game.
Dan Connolly asked a week or two ago if we had changed our minds about Reynolds. I wasn't ready to say yes then, but I am now, he is now giving us what they promised and now counts as a decent FA pickup. Nick Markakis is hitting better too, but is still a bit flat in the power dept.
What I just can't understand is Buck's insistence on using Pie and Scott while Reimold collects splinters in his butt riding the bench. The righty/lefty excuse is pretty weak considering that neither Scott or Pie is any better against righties than Reimold is and he outplays either of them in the field. The only explanation that makes sense to me is that Buck is hoping desperately that Scott will start one of his infrequent hot streaks so they'll be able to trade him before the deadline. Other than that how does Buck justify continually putting him in the lineup? He cost the O's the game last night with his glove and his bat ain't helping much either.
Any thoughts on why Nolan seems to be in the dog house?
Posted by: Roy | July 3, 2011 6:08 PM
Mark Reynolds providing exactly what the Orioles asked for? 35 home runs, 35 errors, 175 strikeouts, and a .200 average. This bespeaks how low this team has set the bar.
Unless they overpay for Hardy, why would he want to remain here, as opposed to becoming a free agent and signing with a contender?
Roberts is in his mid-thirties without a lot of upside.
Lee is a bust offensively, but not a trade chip. What could you possibly expect to get in return for him or Vlad?
Unless a contender is desperate, Guthrie may not bring much in return.
The team does not need more mid-level prospects. They need to put their money in hiring better scouts, invest in the international market, teach fundamentals, and sign their high draft picks.
Aside from Machado in the minors, this team has a catcher, a center fielder, and a right fielder. They need everything else.
Posted by: LittleMugsy06 | July 3, 2011 7:00 PM
Not really a comment, but a question. Why didn't Britton get the win today, he pitched 5 innings and left with the lead?
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Pete's reply: He left with the lead, but the O's didn't hold it, so the pitcher who was in the game when they retook the lead gets the win.
Posted by: Sam | July 3, 2011 7:01 PM
Your guarantee worked wonderfully thanks to Mark Reynolds who is performing just the way I hoped he would.
Posted by: ron | July 3, 2011 7:10 PM
Sadly, the O's drift closer to the International League than the American League. Performance has everything to do with the won-lost record, not the talent on the field. The best of players can become mediocre in an environment that accepts and encourages mediocrity. And average players can excel in an environment that energizes and excites players to perform beyond their abilities. The Orioles losing streak is longer than most players careers. That means they either their scouting department is flawed and the O's draft players with only a marginal chance of making it to the major leagues, or their development system -- the minors -- is flawed and not operating in a manner that would help talented young players develop into major leaguers. Once in Baltimore, they become mired in an atmosphere of virtual despair. When did all that happen? What changed such a proud and magnificent franchise into the laughing stock of baseball? If the organization could rekindle the culture that it once had, not only would young players develop, but free agents would see the city as a place where they can have some fun and flourish as ballplayers. It's tough to be an Orioles fan, but I'll always be one.
Posted by: Frank | July 3, 2011 7:34 PM
If Dave Tremblay had been retained we'd be as good as we are now and have Bryce Harper in our system. Bad planning on our part.
Posted by: Harrisburg Fan | July 3, 2011 9:27 PM
Right again Pete, now why don't you just gurantee that the Orioles will win the Wildcard Hmmmmm??
Posted by: Will | July 3, 2011 11:44 PM
Good call Peter.
Posted by: Robert Hoke | July 4, 2011 4:58 AM
"Suddenly, their in the throes of a five-game losing streak . . . ."?
Surely, you mean "they're in the throes . . . ."!
Fire that copy editor!
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Pete's reply: Sadly, even I make mistakes, as shocking as that may seem to those of you who have told me I'm perfect.
Posted by: Bethesda Jack | July 4, 2011 9:47 AM
Peter. Looks like you were right about the O's salvaging the last game. It seems to me that if I was a betting man, the odds are in favour of a team winning the last game if they lost thte first 2. Maybe the other team is feeling sorry and/or lost focus?
Anyway, I am surprised with Reynolds suddenly finding his power stroke but it can probably disappear just as fast. And what's with all the errors?
Markakis is hitting for average but the power numbers are still way down; he's on pace for about 14 Hrs/65 RBI which is unacceptable for someone earning 11 Mill per year. Maybe he steps it up power-wise but the problem is that the O's are too far out of it now.
Most of our hitters are inconsistent and while their final stats may not be terrible. we need guys that can hit all year. Streaky hitters drive me crazy!!!
Pete-the record doesn't lie...The O's are a mediocre team, sitting well out of contention and are now even worse than the likes of Pittsburgh/KC etc .
It's a pretty sad state of affairs from a fan-standpoint if our only hope is to reach .500.
I wonder what the players(and Buck) are thinking right now?? Are they happy with the team's performance or are they already going through the motions;Buck seems like he could care less and many of the so-called vets are probably in a 'punch in/punch out' mode even though there is still half a season of ball left.
Posted by: TerryP | July 4, 2011 9:01 PM
They need a 3rd baseman and move Reynolds to DH.
He us 224th out of 233 ML players in fielding percentage. Only pitchers with at most, 25 chances arew lower than hm, and most of their errors are throwing on pick-off attempts. The other ML players are not even close based on chances.
He commits an error more than 1 out of every 10 chances (.880 presently). He makes Andres Mora seem like a Gold Glover (refernece lost on younger Oriole fans).
Posted by: joefoss | July 5, 2011 1:15 PM
Peter - The Sun has committed blogicide
Posted by: JJ | July 5, 2011 1:46 PM
They need a 3rd baseman and move Reynolds to DH.
He us 224th out of 233 ML players in fielding percentage. Only pitchers with at most, 25 chances arew lower than hm, and most of their errors are throwing on pick-off attempts. The other ML players are not even close based on chances.
He commits an error more than 1 out of every 10 chances (.880 presently). He makes Andres Mora seem like a Gold Glover (refernece lost on younger Oriole fans).
Posted by: joefoss | July 5, 2011 10:16 PM