Let's see, Roberts makes $10M. Markakis $12M and then Hardy signs for say $8-10M. Then they keep Reynolds and his $7.5M 2012 salary. The Orioles will be paying four players close to $40M.

The Blue Jays 2011 salary was about $62M and they are (and have been for years) better than the Orioles, and the Rays payroll was at $41M and are much better than the Orioles.

You have to start somewhere, but unless the crowbar opens up the wallet big time, don't count on it.

If I thought there was a legitimate chance this team could potentially contend for the playoffs in the next two or three years, I would agree with you. Sadly, I don't believe this is likely the case.

They shouldn't trade either Hardy or Reynolds unless they're getting something pretty decent back in return. But their trade potential might be higher right now than it ever will be, and if they actually can get something decent, they need to give serious consideration to starting all over again.

Pete,

I read the article, and was with you until you referred to 'the final stage of the MacPhail plan".

Whoa, big fella! Let's back up a second.

I'd really like to know if you believe that A) we are entering the final stage of Andy's plan, and B) Andy has successfully completed the other stages of his plan.

Heck, I'm still trying to figure out what the stages are! I know most rebuilding plans are trade the veterans, restock the young players, build depth, have some success, add key free agents, and time it all so they all come to a head to make a pennant run. Honestly Pete, which one of these stages has Andy succeeded at?

I normally agree with you on your points, but I, and probably many others, are way on the opposite side of that statement. We think Andy has not succeeded in most of his stages, and the plan is nowhere near where it should be.

(and yes, as I said, I was with you until that statement, so let's re-sign Hardy and keep Reynolds.)

I think I basically agree with you on Reynolds and Hardy. They are both young guys entering their primes, and, they are quality position players who, I must mention, occupy positions (SS and corner infield) that have been nearly impossible to fill sufficiently for the last decade-plus.

At some point, you got to start crossing off items on the perpetually long laundry list of needs that we go into every offseason, which by the way, never seems to get shorter. How many offseasons in a row have we entered needing a starting pitcher, both corner infield spots, middle-order bat, and SS? And, how many offseasons have we finished without quite filling those needs as much as we had hoped? Here, he have a chance to cross off SS and 3B (maybe middle-order bat) for the near-term. Of all teams, we know how scarce those needs can be, we need to place the price very high to deal those assets.

On point Pete. Selling either Reynolds or Hardy will have me asking about season ticket plans for the Pirates.

And yeah, Prince makes all the sense in the world. I'll believe it when I see it.

Bigger question is this. Pitching Pitching Pitching. Are Britton, Arreita, Matusz the ones? They are the ones that'll cut down AL East hitters and take the lead?

I agree with Andy that growing the arms is the right thing to do, but the vineyard looks dry.

If there's one thing Andy seems to be able to do it's work a trade. I wonder if he could work one out for the Hardy/Reynolds of the rotation. Not a Pineda type pitcher (but I'd take it) more like a Brett Cecil - Andrew Miller - Colby Lewis type...young top of the rotation possible guys. A #2 upside, but #4 basement. Any of those guys floating around? Just saying.

Peter...I agree w/your article about keeping Reynolds and Hardy, but who is going to pitch for us? Clearly, our calvary of young starters have let us down. We can sign those two and then we should have a great offense but we will look like the Texas Rangers of a few years back where they would score eight runs and give up nine.

I agree with your thought to keep Hardy, Reynolds but your statement about continuing to improve the veteran talent may be a bit dis ingenuous. Lee and Vlad are questionable improvements as were the additions of the two relievers from the Blue Jays one of which is gone and the other Gregg is iffy at times. They need to build a better farm system with different people selecting the players. Too many flops in high draft picks and few call up position players for support when injuries occur. I think we need a new owner which is probably out of the question.

I read the column in the paper today.

I am not sure I see the point in keeping these players since the goal should be to contend in a few years, not get 75 instead of 70 wins this year and next. Basically I disagree wholeheartedly with your column, especially concerning Hardy, who has been good for 2 months after being an average, streaky, oft-injured shortstop for the previous 2 years and change. The Orioles should hold the line on 2 years at around $8 per for him. If that doesn't get it done, deal him or get draft picks when he leaves.

If the package is right, we should definitely look to sell. The Orioles have got to stop settling for small gains here.

I couldn't agree more. I'd keep Guthrie as well.
Guerrero and Lee have already been paid. The money is gone. Neither is tradeable, so release them. Give the ab's to Reimold, Pie, and Fox.

Fox was done quite a disservice by coming north as the backup catcher. Keeping both Izturis and Andino was yet another bad decision by O's brass; there is just one backup infielder now and noone has noticed a dearth of any kind.
Fox should have been a backup utility guy, but judging how Showalter handled getting Pie ab's , Fox probably wouldn't have played much in that role either.

No way Pete! With all due respect, are you kidding me?!

Keep Hardy, Hell YES! But Reynolds, no WAY! You deal that guy now while you can. Don't repeat the Luke Scott experiment. This guy is streakier than an off brand Windex. Get rid of him! Yea the home runs are nice for about 10 days, but Reynolds is a horrible 3rd baseman. Yes he may hit 35 home runs this year, but this team needs guys that are consistent, not streaky hitters.

I agree Pete. The O's can move Hardy to 2nd or 3rd if they need to to make room for Machado (and lets be real here, as we've seen with many other sure fire prospects, it's still "if" they need to) and make Reynolds the DH.
I don't know if they can get anything of any value for Vlad or Lee unless they're ready to pay a hefty portion of their salaries , and maybe not even then. Doesn't leave them with a lot of trade bait.

Pete, you said in your blog that trading either jj hardy or mark reynolds will send the fans the wrong message Could you please tell me what kind of message the orioles have sent the fans the last 14 years.Look Pete you said that you are the most positive guy in the room, but even you must admit that the time for andy to be fired is now. It's July 6th and not even the all star break and we have to use 2 pitchers the last 2 day's in the starting rotation that weren't even on the 40 man roster to begin the year. We have a 2nd baseman named blake davis that wasn't even thought enough of too get a invite to the major league camp. Don't mistake me all together i though atkins pitched pretty good last night and i think blake shows signs of improvement. But my main point of emphasis is to show just how the lack of player development in general has hurt this team.

We can debate all we want about some of the trades he is made, but ultimately is is responsible for everything that happens to this team. The wins and losses just haven't added up over the last 4 years and the grow the arms and buy the bat theory while it might sound viable has been a total failure to say the least. Andy is truly out of touch with the modern game and how to do things.So pete there isn't any message that the orioles could send that would have any impact on the fan base of this town.

Since The Purge of the late '90s, the Orioles have dabbled here and there. They went farm system crazy with seven picks in the first 50 which landed them Roberts, Bigbie and five others I would need to look up but won't. And they signed Belle when Palmeiro was too low-balled. When Tejada and a couple others were signed, the Orioles balked at Guerrero when he was still a genuine commodity.

And for nearly a decade we kept hearing how the talent was just two years away.

Then, came The Plan.

Even that required some dabbling. Gonzalez was signed which cost a draft pick. Some other bottom-feeder moves were made to fill out a roster. Roberts was given a four-year Xmas present at a time when he could have returned some genuine talent. Nothing really was done with much conviction except the lip service of better days will be soon upon us.

I never bought into The Plan because of its severely narrow approach, but I did predict 81 wins this year. Whatever.

The point is regardless if you are a staunch believer in MacPhail, think he was a poor choice from the word GO, still sitting on the fence as I once did, or have gone to one side or the other ... the bottom line The Plan has taken us -- not to a crossroad -- but to the middle of the pond.

If the Orioles -- Angelos, MacPhail, I don't care who -- are genuinely serious about this team becoming a proper contender, there is only one course of action. There is no Option B.

They must spend money. Yes, gobs of it. And it all might not work out. Well, boo hoo.

Ever since The Almighty has done strafing runs on whatever the Orioles truly needed, then backed off to give an appearance of non-meddling, the Oriole shell has been rowed to the middle of the pond.

Wait for the farm to produce its next round of enticing talent? Nope. Not this time. There is nothing at Norfolk or Bowie. Can't even pretend the calvary is just two years away. Waiting for them would be letting the current core of talent whither on the vine much the same way Roberts, Mora and Tejada were left on the vine.

Trade talent for better fitting talent? Nope. There are no Bedard's. The pitching staff is fraught with question marks and fingers crossed. There are no Tejada's. Hardy is the closest commodity the Orioles have, and he has two months three weeks left on his contract. The Orioles don't need two AAA players and a AA fill-in.

Guerrero has been demoted from the only team who wanted him last offseason. Scott is hurt. Both are DH's. Lee hasn't done enough with the bat even if there was a contender looking for a first baseman.

Back to Hardy. Yes, the Orioles need to sign him. And it will take gobs of money. He and his agent know the situation. Let's not pretend it is something else. Bluffing only works when it is believable.

And please don't use the o-word.

Overspending is what everyone else calls it when they didn't pony up enough dough. Some guy on eBay overspent for a Volkswagen Thing two days ago. He gets to own it and drive it. I don't. He's happy. I'm not.

Reynolds is signed so I'm not sure of the debate on him. He will cost the Orioles $7.5M in 2012 and $11M in 2013 although they could buy him out of his last year of his contract. If the Orioles were bowled over with a trade proposal, then fine. Otherwise, keep him. Again, no Option B likely here.

The Orioles need to target free agents because Hardy and Reynolds are the poster children of this organization. Both are now batting out of position in order to help their team. Hardy's talents would be better served if the Orioles got a proper LF or 2B who could bat lead-off.

Reynolds is slowly and quietly returning to his former ways by no longer batting seventh. He is batting .242 when batting seventh. He is batting .214 when batting fourth, fifth and sixth. And while his HR's per AB is temporarily higher when batting higher, his RBI's per HR is down. Translation: Almost half of his RBI's batting higher than seventh is himself.

Even more alarming -- and by the way, for some reason I'm not concerned long term about his fielding although the error total is nothing short of alarming -- is his strike outs. He has been lauded for being patient and striking out less. Those are genuine improvements. However, he is striking out once every 2.33 at bats when hitting higher than seventh. That is more than 1.1 at bats worse than when he was batting seventh.

Reynolds is a keeper, but the Orioles need to spend, spend, spend to get the positions of influence more competitive. Then, having a guy like Reynolds batting seventh makes you just want to giggle with excitement.

And pitching. Don't forget pitching. Get a stud starter. Get some depth in the bullpen. And, yes, that's even more money.

But there are no Option B's, no tales to spin, no fingers left to cross. Like Jim Fassel once said -- it's time to move all of the chips to the center of the table. Like Herm Edwards once said -- you play to win the game.

Yeah, it might make us The Evil Empire III, but The Evil Empire won championships while we were losing and The Evil Empire II ended an 86-year wait with two of their own during the same time.

Put up or shut up. Start with signing Hardy.

So the O's want a big bat? In the post-steroid boom, would you consider someone hits 20 home runs before the all-star break a big bat? It seems like Reynolds should get a shot at hitting clean up. Outside of Prince Fielder and Pujols there isn't a lot of heavy artillery on the market next season.

Who gets the cannoli?

We need to keep Reynolds and Hardy. We also need to keep Guthrie - he is the only reliable starter we have.

Just because we are building from the draft and our own system - this does not guarantee success. McPhail's approach is the right approach - some of the fruit are either slow in coming (or may not come to the level we had hoped). Weiters was the concensus #1 pick when the O's got him with the 5th pick. He's solid - but not what we were/are hoping he will be. Matusz was a consensus pick as well - these were good selections that haven't panned out the way we hoped.

Hobgood (or whatever) - that was a mistake.

The lineup is solid (we need a 1b or LF or DH).

I think we see what, if anything, we can get for Pie.

We need to have 2 or 3 reliable (not #1) starters. Than we see where Matuzs, Tillman, Bergeson, etc can fit in.

It is not unusual for young pitchers to take a few years to get their act together. The problem with the O's is we have 3 or 4 of them all going thru the motions at the same time - that is disastrous to any kind of success.

Perhaps I've drunk the cool-aid, but I think the ground work has been laid - its a matter of seeing if some of these guys will step up.

I would like to see Reynolds become the DH (i.e., part ways with Guerrero, who is clearly finished) so that you lose his glove but keep his awesome bat. Then bring up Josh Bell and make him the starting 3rd baseman.

Print edition? What's that?

My take: Sign Hardy, keep Reynolds and Scott and Guthrie. Trade Vlad and/or DLee, and Koji or Gregg. (This winter, sign Fielder and Webb or Wilson)

I like Hardy a lot, but I think he's playing better than he is right now. He's also had those injury problems... Despite all that I try my hardest to work out a 2-3, maybe 4 year deal. If he can play 140 games/yr and bat .280/.340/.460 with 20+ homers (which is about what he did in 2008), you'd be foolish to not be happy with that from your SS. He's hitting a bit of a slump now and his numbers are starting to drop a bit, so he may be more likely to sign. I know people don't want Hardy taking Machado spot, but Machado isn't as close as people think. Since he got off the DL, he's struggled and the O's prematurely promoted him to Frederick where he's hitting .190/.239/.262 with one extra base hit. He'll make it to the Show, but we can't base our next three years at any position on a 19 year old with those kinda stats at high-A. And as was mentioned before, how nice would it be to have some combination of Reynolds, Hardy and Machado filling the corners and SS in 2013?? If we can't sign Hardy now, we let him lead-off the rest of the season (barring a meltdown) and hope he plays well enough to get us some extra draft picks, and then see if we can't sign him. Don't move him out of the lead-off spot, if it's working, even if Roberts comes back. (If Roberts does come back, you start him low and gradually move him higher. We can't have him with so much responsibility leading-off that he starts throwing himself at bags again.)

We keep Reynolds. 'Nuff said. Or it should be, but maybe I should go ahead and throw my two cents at you anyway. He has something going on in his head that allows him to guff up some routine plays where he has extra time, but then follows it with something spectacular. To say the least, it's been shoddy, but I think his overall D is better that statistics show. He brought his Ks down a bit, and while I don't expect him to reach 200, his rate has been increasing with his homers. I expect him to finish with 40-42 hrs and around 190 Ks. He's far and away proved he can handle the AL East and we have to keep him through next year, and it'll probably prove a good idea to take that option. Also, in my personal opinion - I like him and think he fits in Baltimore.

Though I got caught up in the hope that Vlad would provide some protection to our other hitters and knock in some runs, I was skeptical about relegating Scott to LF when they signed Vlad this winter. A lot of people complained about this taking away opportunities from Reimold and Pie, and while I agreed, my biggest worry was that Scott would lose the momentum he had in 2011. Every player has pushed themselves to incredible limits to make it the major leagues and they also know they are much more valuable if they can field a position. So of course Scott was "excited" to be able to go back out to LF. I don't think his words matched his true feelings though. I remember his skepticism with DHing at the beginning of 2010, but how he grew into the role. He was our most consistent batter last year and I attribute all of that to his being able to focus on nothing more than hitting the ball. I even remember writers and bloggers commenting on the wonderful consistency of a guy they had called and currently are calling one of the streakiest players on the team. Vlad may have put a few more butts in the seats and his signing may have signaled a slight change in philosophy with the franchise, but could you imagine if Scott was repeating his 2010 numbers in Vlad's spot and Reimold was able to carry the numbers he has now? Yeah, he has the tear in his shoulder or w/e it is, but maybe he wouldn't have if he hadn't tried to prove that he could re-take the field. Imagine...

Hardy .292/.351/.530
Markakis .294/.340/.386
Jones .285/.327/.461
Scott .274/.348/.520 (2010 on July 6)
Reynolds .230/.352/.507
Wieters .269/.320/.412
Reimold .271/.362/.492
Lee .233/.293/.341
Andino .245/.326/.306

Now that you're done imagining, let something similar to this be the plan for next year. Maybe even throw a Fielder into the mix. Shut Scott down and make him get the surgery, so he can get back to chopping firewood in the off-season and get ready to be our DH in 2012. In fact, require anyone that has mild surgeries to take care of (i.e. warts removed) to get them done in October while they're watching the better teams play ball. Maybe even in September for some of the young pitchers if they start to gas out.

Treat Guthrie the same way you treat Scott. Keep him around, but if we're serious about competing next year, put a bonafide starter, that has a good chance to give us 200 innings and win 15 games, in front of him. Millwood was a good try, but lets see if we can't do a little better. Not many ballplayers, and no one in the entire O's system can replace Guthrie right now. I know he had a horrible game, but he is nothing but humble and consistent and we need that going forward. With the ineffectiveness of Matusz, Tillman and Bergy, it's obvious we can't have enough pitching. Guthrie cannot be spared. With regards to next year - maybe take a flyer on Brandon Webb or try to get C.J. Wilson. Both are free agents and, if healthy, would mean a world of difference. I know, I know. Andy says " grow the arms, buy the bats", but I don't think he's so black and white that he'd pass on an opportunity if it made sense. Angelos has the money. Convince him to spend it. Again, imagine...

Wilson 3.02 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Guthrie 3.77, 1.19 (Avg of years not ace)
Britton 3.38, 1.27
Arrieta 4.50, 1.34
Matusz (or Tillman or Bergy)

Pretty crazy, we all were ready to hand Matusz the ace role at the start of this season. But getting back to the task at hand...

Keep giving Vlad as many opportunities hitting fourth at possible in the hope that he'll get a little hot and increase his value so that we can get some salary relief and/or a middle infield AA/AAA prospect for him. Having Vlad hitting fourth, also keeps some of the responsibility off Reynold's shoulders which messes with his mind a bit. Reynolds has been hitting better farther back, let him build up his confidence before we feed him to the wolves. Let DLee do his thing from a bit farther back in the lineup, but treat him similarly. Get absolutely anything you can for these guys since they won't be here next year and likely won't be a part of any success we have in the final two months. I'd also trade Koji or Gregg, but not both, for the best middle infield prospect we can steal from another team.

Tell me I'm wrong, but back it up with something.

Hardy would be a fool to even contemplate signing an extension with this organization.

Let him serve out the rest of his sentence in peace.

I have to disagree here. They need to restock the system before they have a shot at being contenders.

Sell. Trade. Whatever.

They aren't winning anytime in the near future, so why keep our only trade bait in the meantime?

Pete; I`m not sure it will make much of a difference in the future of this club with or without J.J> and Mark. While I agree that keeping them is the right thing if I could get a solid starting pitcher for either guy I1d have to pull the trigger. Unfortunately, the pitching is on very thin ice. Matusz may be done. I`m afraid he may be going the way of Bruce Chen and Brian Burress. It appears Bergeson is struggling, and the current rotation is in shambles.No quick fixes for this team no matter who the owner is. It is extremely difficult to watch this team now. Poor clutch hitting,no advancing runners, poor defense have led to a mess.We`ll keep rooting,but I~m afraid there will be no improvement anytime soon.

I don't see them trading either one unless overwhelmed, just not happening.. NOW KOJI LEE, or possibly GUTHRIE could be traded if we can get a real prospect in return..KOJI could really help a BP.. LEE starting to hit and having a track record of getting hot in the second half could help a team if he lives up to the track record.. GUTHRIE getting knocked out early lately probably kills his value.. He will be worth more to us than we would get back..

Pete; I pretty much agree that the club should try to keep Hardy and Reynolds;however, given the state of the pitching lately i`d have to listen to offers for arms. If the team doesn`t improve the staff then the position players may not matter.It`s obvious to everyone that the pitching the team was counting on for this year has not worked out. I`d say most of the fan base islost anyway.

I can't see that Hardy will want to hang around the Orioles train wreck of a team. Sure, signing him is a good idea but why wouldn't he want to go to a team that has a shot of winning?
He can cash in big if he keeps it up as solid fielding SS with power and the ability to hit for average don't grow on trees.
As far as Reynolds goes, I could care less either way. Sure, he can go deep 35-40 times a year but the downside is the low average, rally-killing K's/DP's and brutal fielding.
Was this guy always that bad with the leather?
By now, it's clear that the sole purpose of the O's existence is to be punching bags for other teams. Perhaps the O's can trade some of their luke-warm/semi-productive 'vets' for some marginal 'prospects' and we all know how well that approach has worked for the past 13 years!!

Forget about Prince. Keep Reynolds and use him as DH. Keep Hardy for 3 years $21MM. Use money coming off payroll plus another $20M per year and get the two best free agent starters you can get. Get the three best arms from the minors and get them up here for relief work. Tired of seeing all these other teams trot in the young 24 year olds in the 6th and 7th throwing 96MPH.

Machado is just a prospect, a good prospect, so it's a little insulting to Hardy to consider him just a bridge. The chances of Machado ever being as good as Hardy are probably less than 50-50. O's have had a lot of "bridges" to players who never made it. Hardy really seems to know what he's doing, reminds a little bit of a "Blade" who can hit.