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June 16, 2011

Bold prediction: O's run to daylight

It's almost impossible to assail my logic in guaranteeing that the Orioles will avert a three-game sweep today with an afternoon victory over the Toronto Blue Jays with the roof open at Rogers Centre.

Quite simply, it has been scientifically proven that you can't lose them all. The Orioles have to win today because they've lost 16 straight games in Toronto and the odds against losing 17 straight are astronomical. It's sort of like flipping a coin and getting heads 16 times in a row. You know that it's got to be a million to one against a head coming up on the 17th flip. Duh!

The same goes for Jeremy Guthrie, who also has defied the odds by winning just one game since Opening Day in spite of holding a sub-4.00 ERA for much of the past 2 1/2 months. that's hard to do.

Really, there isn't much else bad left to happen to this team. The Orioles clearly are destined to win today and begin another five-game winning streak. I guarantee it.

Posted by Peter Schmuck at 6:08 AM | | Comments (18)
Categories: Just baseball


peter i wish you luck in your predictions ,but the way the orioles are playing they will find a way to lose the you say the odds have to change sometime, i do not see it happeing today. the orioles just simply look like a team with heart and the killer instinct.

I'm with you Peter, I'm flying to Vegas now to lay some action on this one !!

that's crazy talk---think of the consequences---an Orioles win would spark another Canadian riot---hell, I might even turn over my car and burn it...

Pete's reply: You're absolutely right. That was irresponsible of me.

So...what are the odds on a baseball team having 13 straight losing seasons...or 14?

So what are the odds on a baseball team having 13 straight losing seasons...or 14?

You must have flunked your stats class Pete, if you hit 16 heads in a row and flip the coin again, the odds for that flip are still 50/50. It's different if you ask at the beginning what the odds are for hitting 17 heads in a row though.
Regardless, I think you're probably right. The O's just seem to lurch from winning streaks to losing streaks. They won 5 straight to hit .500, then lost 5 straight, then won 4 to get back to within 1 game of .500, and promptly lost the next 4. It seems to be a psychological barrier for them. Thats why I still have a tiny little bit of hope for them. If they can just hold on long enough to get 2 or 3 games over .500 and hold it for a while, maybe the magic will wear off of that number and they can start playing closer to what we expected of them.
This has been one of the most frustrating seasons in quite a while, and that's saying plenty, all because so many players on this team are playing so far below what we expected of them. If Lee was hitting, if Nick was, if B Rob was doing anything, and Scott was, they'd be in pretty good shape right now.
Maybe, just maybe, Buck can find the "on" switch again. He did it last season, I just hope he can do it again before this one gets completely away from them.

Pete's reply: I got straight A's in statistics, but apparently am unable to convey humor very well.

I like your flipping the coin analogy Pete; however for Toronto to beat a bad team like the O's, the odds are much better than the probability you get from flipping a coin.

The Jays have a rookie taking the mound for his MLB debut today. What better team to bring a rookie up against?

Lastly, the O's are not victims of statistical "injustice". They have a way of redefining new lows for themselves, while aiding the opponents in achieving all sorts of unheard records. That's what bad teams do.

It's hard to stomach, but not hard to believe, that despite this four year miserable failure, MacPhail will be allowed to continue this train wreck.

Pete we have played 66 games so far, and buck still tries to say the right things about this club. People you can think that this club is better then the previous ones but you are just kidding yourself like i did coming into this year.Look we can try and deflect all of the blame off of andy but lets be realistic that is where the failure of this team lies IN HIS LAP.Outside of Nick M , derrick lee has to be considered a huge bust, sure he is still good defensively but at age 35 his offensive skills are non existent, vlad was suppose to supply some power but 6 hr's and 25rbi's at this stage of the game isn't much. Offensively this team is absolutely horrible and there really isn't any way to fix it now. The bull pen is in shambles once again and it looks like a paul jones dance with as many moves as they keep making.

Look andy entered Buck into a high stakes poker game but he didn't tell him that he was playing with out any face cards or aces. Yea the record is better then last year but this team isn't. The question marks are numerous, brian roberts return seems more in doubt every day, brian m once considered a sure thing doesn't look that way anymore and the players that you counted on to have good years so that you could trade them at the all star break wouldn't get you a donut and a cup of coffee right now. Andy you might have tried your best to fix this awful franchise but sorry it just didn't work.

5 Game win steak??? How can we not win against Toronto. They are a 500 team. We are sinking fast going from 4 to 9 games out is impossible to make up. O's mgnt should be seriously considering who to trade at the deadline.
Vlad- gone, Lee- gone, Gonzo-Gone,Rapada-Gone. Extend-Hardy and perhaps Reynolds??
What are your thoughts on Reynolds??He may benefit from another year here.

Actually, wouldn't the odds still be 1:2?

You know that it's got to be a million to one against a head coming up on the 17th flip. Duh!

No. Actually, after the 16th toss, the odds are exactly 1 in 2 that heads will come up. The odds on that coin flip are completely unrelated to previous events.

Statistics 101.

Pete's reply: It's called a joke, Einstein.


Were you that guy at the casino who wouldn't let me play "his" slot machine?

He kept going on about how he was due for a winning jackpot on the next spin because he had played and lost in his previous umpteen tries, yet he couldn't play anymore because he ran out of money.

Security had to drag him out by his arms. Sad.

I'm guessing you've never read or seen "Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead". The Orioles are obviously within un-, sub-, or supernatural forces.

No matter how you cut it, it's pretty hard to lose 15 in a row in one place. Even the Jays announcers said that surely the O's had to have ONE well pitched game or a blow out in their favour.
The O's brutal record against the Jays shows how bad we really are. The Jays lineup has a few tough spots(Lind/Bautista/Escobar) but there are lots of mediocre players/journeymen holding down regular jobs-ie Davis/Nix/Patterson/Hill.
Their pitching is actually pretty thin overall so why can't we beat these guys?
Maybe the Orioles players are spending too much time in the Yonge/King/Front street barsand if not, maybe they should start!

Time for Buck to shake up the lineup again. Bench Reynolds before someone hits a line dfrive off his forehead, or he throws out his back swinging and missing. Bring up Bell and play him at third. He can't field either but he looks better striking out.

Stick Vlad in right field for entertainment purposes. Make him chase a few and earn his 8 Mil.

Let Adam Jones pitch a few innings and stick Michael Gonzalez in center to find out what it feels like to look up and watch balls sail over the fence when somebody else is pitching.

Suit up Willie Randolph and play him at second. He's still better than what we've got. Let Felix Pie manage the team for a day. He can make those wierd faces at the umpire from the dugout on every pitch. Let Markakis play short. I'd like to see if he can make the play from the hole.

Pete, that's what you get for trying to tap into the sense of humor of statisticians.

I, for one, agree with you. They're bound to win tonight. Go O's.

Pete i just heard a stat, when the orioles play against a rookie pitcher {like today }making his major league debut the orioles are 9 and 15 with a batting average of 249.You know pete i have always thought about this but our advance scouting has to be the reason why we are so bad. We most have bad scouts all through this organization. It has to be a valid explanation for performing so bad. I truly believe that this is the area that we really need to improve. Pete how can buck continue to say he isn't worried about brian roberts. I like buck but he needs to stop being nice and start being the old buck that won in 3 seperate organizations

Pete's reply: Have you ruled out boneheaded, impatient hitters? These guys have video of every pitcher they face and they are in the video room every day. They have meetings telling them how to approach pitchers, and they all go up and swing at crap.

Buck has been around a long time and brings tons of class to his position as manager. So we don't know for sure what's going on behind closed doors, but here's betting he's started taking off the kid gloves and giving his players what-for. I expect to see a big roster shakeup by the July 30 trade deadline. If the O's won't learn and won't listen, then they will be out the door and let the kids in the organization come up and show us what they can do. If we're going to finish last, what difference does it make if it's just barely or by a mile? Bring up the kids and send a huge message that things have changed in Birdland.

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About Peter Schmuck
Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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