Pete, there was that rumor on here that you were sent to a re-education camp to insure right thinking, and positive coverage of the O's.

So welcome back comrade Oriole! We know you can't tell us your true inner feelings, so if you can blink out morris code while you do your radio show. Lean in close to the mike and we'll be able to pick up the fibrations caused by your eyelashes, though we'll need the NSA's super computor to decipher your messages and get them out to the free world.

Smitty was going to ask his Uncle Andy if we can use the picnic area at the yard for an outing for the regular posters. But some regulars won't come, something about snipers and the warehouse.

Oh well, it would have been fun, I had my best Hawiian shirt laid out and thought we'd all sing "For he's a Jolly Good Fella" to Smitty's Uncle Andy since he's so loved on this site...

Why did you even bother to post this entry? Honestly!

Prediction time:

Games/BA/HR/RBI/Misc

Lee - 134 / .272 / 7 / 72
Roberts - 135 / .286 / 9 / 50 / 20 SB
Hardy - 145 / .277 / 25 / 81
Reynolds - 147 / .237 / 27 / 85 / 222 K

Markakis - 162 / .317 / 21 / 101
Jones - 142 / .285 / 17 / 71
Scott - 121 / .252 / 27 / 70

Wieters - 127 / .267 / 15 / 68

Guerrero - 138 / .285 / 25 / 99

Starts/W-L/ERA/Misc

Guthrie - 31 / 15-10 / 3.80
Matusz - 30 / 15-9 / 3.95
Britton - 20 / 12-5 / 3.75
Others - 81 / 30-37 / 4.55
Bullpen - 0 / 9-20 / 4.70 / 20 blown saves

Overall:The Orioles will get off to a decent start with a streak in May putting them 11 games over .500. By the All Star break, they will be six games over .500. Matusz and Britton (despite his late call-up) will pitch well but fade. Conversely, Arrieta will struggle but will be the best starter post-All Star break. The bullpen will turn out being the Achilles' heal (along with general depth with position players) but a few youngsters will actually be the bright spots in relief roles. Markakis will have his best year yet and will be the Oriole All Star thanks to a superb first half. There will be no significant moves at the trading deadline.

The Orioles will sweep Boston in the final series to finish one game ahead of them in third place at 81-81.

NYY - 95-67
TBR - 84-78
BAL - 81-81
BOS - 80-82
TOR - 79-83

Whoa, waspman, what happens to the Red Sox that makes them finish behind the O's?

Prediction:

JJ Hardy is given a two year extension during the season.

Vlad, Lee, Scott and Guts all get traded at the deadline, but the team still fights and finishes 80-82, good enough for 4th place and the last available protected pick in next year's draft.

Next offseason, MacPhail is replaced as GM and the new GM signs...

Prediction: Schmuck will eat 3 meals before noon.

Real bullish on J.J. Hardy, waspman. I like it.

I think your predictions will end up being fairly accurate when it's all said and done, though I do disagree on a few things...

Lee - 134 / .272 / 7 / 72
- I'm with you on three out of four, but I'm thinking at least 15 homers for DLee.

Roberts - 135 / .286 / 9 / 50 / 20 SB
- I'd love to see Roberts play that many games, but I think it'll be closer to 110 or so, which will hold his doubles to the high 30's. Anyone can feel free to call me a pessimist, but really, I just don't like back injuries.

Guthrie - 31 / 15-10 / 3.80
Matusz - 30 / 15-9 / 3.95
Britton - 20 / 12-5 / 3.75
- Flip those ERA's around so Matusz is the lowest, Guthrie is the highest and Britton's in the middle.

And now, my prediction for the division:

1. Boston - 98-64 - Plenty of offense and enough pitching to run away with the division
2. Tampa - 91-71 - If they could have added a big bat, I might have put them on top.
3. New York - 85-77 - I don't care about their offense. When A.J. Burnett is your #2 starter, you're not going to win the division.
4. Baltimore - 81-81 - I'm in a good mood about our team today.
5. Toronto - 70-92 - Too many free swingers, not enough pitching.

And finally, a fun wild guess for every team in the division:

Boston - Daniel Bard is their closer by May 15th.

Tampa - Jeremy Hellickson is AL ROY. Bonus guess: The Rays do not win the Wild Card.

New York - CC Sabathia is the only Yankee starter with an ERA under 4.75.

Baltimore - Zach Britton is promoted on April 22nd and shuts the Yankees out over seven innings at OPACY.

Toronto - José Bautista finishes the season with 21 home runs.

Can't wait for the season to start! Starting on Friday, we can start arguing about reality instead of our perception about what may or may not happen.

The answer is:

...some significant International prospects.

not brooks;

You're pretty optimistic about Tampa. Why? They lost Garza and Crawford plus their first baseman and SS as well as almost their entire bullpen which had to have been just about the best in baseball last year. Why to optimism?

dan -

A few weeks or months ago, I might have picked the Rays to finish behind the O's, just because of the sticker shock of who they lost. But they really do look a lot better than you would think. And it's really because of one thing:

Pitching, pitching, pitching. (OK, I guess that's three things, technically.)

Even without Garza, the Rays have a potentially awesome starting five in Price, Shields, Niemann, Davis and Hellickson.

And, even though they lost Crawford, I'm bullish on their offense. Reid Brignac brings much more to the table than Jason Bartlett did at short.

Also...

Dan Johnson could easily be just as productive as Carlos Peña has been over the past couple of years.

They still have Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist.

And the X-factor for their offense: Manny Ramirez. After this spring, I believe in a big comeback from Manny. He's not going to put up MVP numbers, but I'm thinking something like a .290ish average and a .380+ OBP with 25+ home runs.

As for the bullpen, I'm a huge believer in Joel Peralta and Jake McGee. The Rays built their pen the right way this winter, and I think it'll pay off.

Does anyone here think Jason Isringhausen could be any help to the Orioles? I think he could, but I am curious as to what you all think.

Good one waspman. so as they say in Bud Light world...here we go!

Derrek Lee -- 143 .281 / 26 / 92
Brian Roberts -- 138 .290/ 15 / 70/ 38 SB
Mark Reynolds -- 155 .230 / 34 / 82 / 199K's!!
Nick Markakis -- 162 .315 / 18 / 82 / 15 SB
Adam Jones -- 157 .290 / 31 / 97 / 18 SB
Matt Wieters -- 145 .269 / 21 / 68 / 3 SB!!

Nolan Riemold -- 98 .295 / 16 / 51 / 35BB/28 K's.
AL EAST
Boston 97-65
Baltimore 89 -73
New York 88-74
Tampa Bay 79-83
Toronto 69-93

Wild Card
Minnesota 95-67

Central
Chicago 96-66

Definitely a lot of Orange cool-aid being passed around among fans here. I hope you all are right about the O's.

@waspman,

The Redsox 80-82? Have somebody check your vital signs!

I'm with you on the Yankees though. A lot of people have counted them out. But last I checked their right field is a home run heaven. Also, they still have a squad full of bombers. They will have most teams trailing them before they know what hit 'em. Their bullpen is in good shape. They will do what Yankees do. They will get an Ace starting pitcher after the All-Star break, in form of a trade, and make a solid run towards the playoffs.

Tampa is a one hit wonder. They will fall face first this year.

I'm not going to predict records, but here are my rankings:

Yankees
Redsox
Orioles (apparently, I'm on coolaid as well)
Jays
Rays

In the great 1943 WWII in the desert flick "Sahara", Humphrey Bogart takes a vote amongst his meager forces about whether to try to hold a little outpost. After the unit decides to stay and fight it out, Bogie tells one of his more recalcitrant soldiers that it was his vote that counted the most. I put mesotheliangelos in that same category.

We all know meso has been one of the more vocal critics of the MacPhail regime, yet meso now picks the Orioles, yes, the Orioles, to finish ahead of the
Rays and Jays.

Many of the more optimistic posters here, myself included, figured the Orioles would do much better than most thought they would, but meso? That tells me something. If meso thinks the Orioles might do well, maybe they will. Like they always say, if you want an honest opinion, go to someone no on your side. I know meso is an Orioles' fan, but he certainly is not on MacPhail's side.

I am not sold on the Yankees, but I do not think the Orioles can catch either them or the BoSox, not yet. They'll give it a good shot, but third, I think, is a very realistic goal.

Well said, meso, and I hope you are right.

not brooks;

I'm not as bullish on Tampa's starting staff as you are. There's a couple of major question marks as far as I can see.

Number 1 is Shields. He had two good seasons in 07 and 08 but has slipped in the last two years. His ERA in 09 wasn't that bad at 4.14, but given 239 hits in 219 IP plus 1 HR every 7 IP you have to wonder if he was fortunate that it was that low.

I wrote that off originally as just having a not so good year and expected a bounce back in 2010. Instead, he got worse, with a 5.18 ERA along with 246 hits in 203 IP while giving up 1 HR every 6 IP.

In short, he's gotten his butt kicked around the yard pretty good in the last 2 years with the numbers trending in the wrong direction. If I'm a Tampa fan I'm worried about him.

Question 2 is Hellickson. He's got real good minor league numbers but there are more than a few young guys who've struggled in there first season. With only 35 ML IPs to his credit he has to be a fairly big question mark.

If both of these 2 guys have problems, then Tampa's starting pitching will be no better than average. They'd be left with an unquestioned ace in Price, then Nieman and Davis who had ERAs in the low to mid 4s. Aside from Price, that isn't inspiring.

Gotta side more dan qz than not brooks.

I'm not sold on anyone other than David Price in Tampa's rotation. Maybe it's me, but I think Guthrie and Matusz have a lower combined ERA than Price and Shields. (and yeah, I know Shields was the most unlucky Pitcher in the AL with balls in play, and I do think he's gonna be much better than last year). Arietta vs. Davis and Bergensen vs. Neiman are kinda washes for me. Hellickson...matches up against Britton.

Offensively, I'll take the O's. Defensively pretty close to a draw, maybe Rays. Bull pens...I like the O's pen vs. Tampa's this year.

That's my take anyway.

OK since it is time for predictions, here's mine.
I really like our lineup. i think we'll score in the top 8 in MLB. Roberts and Lee have hit well since their returns. Vlad has hit well and is always a force. Scott, and Nick will produce. Weiters and Jones will grow. And Hardy...I think he'll do well also.

So...can we contend with the bog boys? that would be Bos and NYY and you guys above that thing Bos will win 80 games are just absolutely crazy.

The most likely answer is no and it boils down, of course, to pitching. We're starting with only 4 starters. That's not good. I'll give 5 counting Britton, who will be up in April. But Guthrie is only "good" (not great). I love Matusz but I fear he will have a slow start. Tillman stinks and we will get crushed in game 3 of the TB series. Bergeson...man I hope this guy clicks because when he pitches well he's a joy to watch, but I am nervous about him. Arietta...my fingers are crossed...

The bullpen is also a problem. We don't have a closer, which is kind of a problem. Koji is our best bet, in my opinion, because I do not like Gregg in that role. I don;t expect much out of him this year, hope I'm wrong. Koji is constantly hurt. I like Gonzalez but we have no other lefty which will limit us especially in Yankee stadium.

Bench is a bet better than in years past, I like Pie and think he could potentially be a starter. I hope he gets enough playing time to know at the end of the year if he's part of the future. I like Fox as backup catcher - just play him against teams that don;t run please. Andino and Izturis are decent pieces.

all in all I think this will be our best team in 13 years. YES I think we will break the 13 year losing streak!!

My number is 84 wins and some bigger crowds in the Yards this year. I bought tickets for my family for the first time this year, I hope a lot of other Baltimoreans are doing the same. It's time to support the Orioles!

Paulie I just read your post.

If you think Arietta = Davis and Bergeson = Niemann.......well let's just say you are a big Orioles fan and also in the (extremely) solid minority there.

Niemann and Davis are better than Guthrie. Matusz and Britton have cielings that are higher, but those guys have done it, particulary Niemann.

They are not even close to Bergy and Arietta. 30 teams out of 30 would take Niemann and Davis.

Squirrel, very short answer is NO he would get his clock cleaned.

Mike in Columbia;

Niemann and Davis are better than Guthrie? Really? Davis has 1 year of 168 IP under his belt with an ERA just over 4. Niemann has 2 years combined with an ERA of about 4.2. In 3 of 4 years for us, Guthrie's ERA was between 3.6 and 3.8.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but its also easier to hit HRs in Camden as opposed to Tampa which would work against Guthrie's ERA if anything. Maybe Niemann and Davis will both end up with better careers than Guthrie, but they haven't been yet.

I fully expected the razzing for the Red Sox prediction. And I will grant you a nine-game demise following a six-game downfall requires explanation given how the organization has improved over the past decade. And I am a big fan of Crawford. However ...

The only starter I genuinely like is Buchholz. I think he's the real deal. Lester is young, a lefty, not afraid to throw inside, and already has had a 200-plus IP year under his belt. I believe this one year his HR total will be high and his W-L record will be only a smidge over .500. Overall, I think he has a bright future but I'm predicting a middling 2011 for him.

After that, I am unimpressed with their starters. I will admit I haven't researched what up-and-comers they might have lurking to make a break-through, but the rest of their cast of characters might be struggling around the .500 mark. Add to that a bullpen I would have little confidence in, they might be spending some time on defense this year. Bard may eventually replace a suddenly-vulnerable Papelbon as the closer but unless the latter totally stinks it up, I don't see that being an easy change in '11.

Then, there's the age issue. Not counting Wakefield, if he's still alive, the team is slowly growing older together. They were riddled with injuries last year when I thought they might win the division, and their younger players didn't step up. Maybe they will. Until then, I dropped the hammer.

Every season has their surprises. I wanted to choose one that could make sense. Since I didn't spend time looking at the the other 25 teams that closely, I chose a surprise in the AL East. I think Boston has the best chance to be a disappointing surprise, and I see no where-did-they-come-from good surprises for the division (unless you want to count Baltimore improving by 15 games, which from 66 wins is open to interpretation).

I fully expected the razzing for the Red Sox prediction. And I will grant you a nine-game demise following a six-game downfall requires explanation given how the organization has improved over the past decade. And I am a big fan of Crawford. However ...

The only starter I genuinely like is Buchholz. I think he's the real deal. Lester is young, a lefty, not afraid to throw inside, and already has had a 200-plus IP year under his belt. I believe this one year his HR total will be high and his W-L record will be only a smidge over .500. Overall, I think he has a bright future but I'm predicting a middling 2011 for him.

After that, I am unimpressed with their starters. I will admit I haven't researched what up-and-comers they might have lurking to make a break-through, but the rest of their cast of characters might be struggling around the .500 mark. Add to that a bullpen I would have little confidence in, they might be spending some time on defense this year. Bard may eventually replace a suddenly-vulnerable Papelbon as the closer but unless the latter totally stinks it up, I don't see that being an easy change in '11.

Then, there's the age issue. Not counting Wakefield, if he's still alive, the team is slowly growing older together. They were riddled with injuries last year when I thought they might win the division, and their younger players didn't step up. Maybe they will. Until then, I dropped the hammer.

Every season has their surprises. I wanted to choose one that could make sense. Since I didn't spend time looking at the the other 25 teams that closely, I chose a surprise in the AL East. I think Boston has the best chance to be a disappointing surprise, and I see no where-did-they-come-from good surprises for the division (unless you want to count Baltimore improving by 15 games, which from 66 wins is open to interpretation).

@waspman,

I've got to disagree with you on the suprise team, as in bad suprise. The O's are the team with more potential to dissapoint than the Redsox. With over-the-hill one year rentals, young pitching that hasn't found an identity, no solid answer beyond B-Rob at second base, mediocre defense in the outfield (except for right field).

The Redsox were getting it done with third stringers last year. Josh Beckett was lights out against the Astros last night. They beat them 10-0. The Redsox know how to win. They are a resilent team. They are loaded with talent. Their manager is as good as anybody, and their front office does an exceptional job. Their ownership puts their money where their mouth is. That's a model baseball franchise in my book.

sorry for the double-post ... it happened a couple days ago, too. I swear I hit the POST button only once.

BTW, I did consider TB for a downfall. In fact, all spring I had them below .500 in my mind. Although I have them still down in wins which is consistent with what I said a couple days ago when comparing them to a late-'70s Oriole team, I chose for them some bright spots given their age and pitching.

One more thing ... the Red Sox hovering at or just above .500 will have a totally different attitude come trading deadline and player useage than the Orioles in a somewhat similar position (or so I predict). The Oriole sweep to pass the Red Sox will mean something to them while Boston is figuring out the offseason and 2012.

My prediction on Boston is based on where they are in their own evolution and the Oriole improbable passing of them is neither an indictment on the Red Sox organization nor a proclamation the Orioles have become better than them. It will be up to the two organizations even if I'm 100% correct. And even if I am 100% correct, I'm not ready to say the Red Sox will panic or the Orioles will take the next step.

I respect your comments, meso, and I agree Boston is a model franchise. Sorry, not sold on Beckett entirely.

As for the O's, would 71 wins be a surprise? That's still a five game improvement. Disappointing ... certainly, especially around these parts and with me. But the 2011 Orioles are constructed as such where neither 71 wins nor 81 wins could really constitute "a surprise." Above or below that range would be eyebrow-raising.

waspman;

Your point about Boston's pitching is well taken, but I think you're selling Lester way short. He's thrown 200+ IP in each of the last three years with ERAs in the low threes. I'd take him in a heartbeat.

With Lester and Buchholz they've got a good one and two, but after them there are certainly question marks. Lackey was not that great last year, certainly not worth what they paid him, with more hits than IP and an above average ERA of about 4.50 and Matsuzaka and Beckett were somewhere between bad and awful.

I can see why you question their bullpen, although I think they did improve themselves by picking up Jenks and Wheeler. The telltale sign to me is that Albers made their staff. I don't think he would have won a spot in ours. At best he might have edged out Rupe but I think not.

Dan,

Okay it's debatable whether or not they are better than Guthrie, I agree. I like Guthrie, don't get me wrong, I wish the O's would hurry up and sign him to an extension.

But don't place so much weight on ERA.

The reason I think (hope!) that we'll end up higher in the standings than TB is that we have a much better lineup and their bullpen is completely unproven and will likely cause them trouble. Their starting rotation, with age factored in, is probably second only to Philly's in MLB.

Concessions, consmeshions. You'll just be happy to be back at OPACY and out of that dump "the Trop". I'd take the St. Pete weather right about now, but they can keep their baseball played inside a warehouse.

Mike in Columbia;

I get your point about not hanging too much weight on ERA, but it isn't illegitimate to look at things that can affect it.

Two factors that I think have favored Tampa starters over their Oriole counterparts are that it is more difficult to hit HRs in Tampa as compared to Baltimore (I stand to be corrected) and a much better bullpen in Tampa than we've had.

True, an individual starter doesn't necessarily benefit from a better bullpen if he's the snakebitten guy who the bullpen disproportionately has bad nights when he's pitching, but staff wide a better bullpen is going to result in better starter ERAs.

There is no doubt, especially last year, that Tampa had a much, much better BP than we did. How much higher would Tampa's starters ERA have been if they pitched for the O's last year where Koji, Gonzalez and Johnson spent so much time on the DL? As it was they had Soriano, Benoit and Balfour coming in after them and all three were pretty much lights out.

I couldn't agree with you more about our position players as compared to Tampa this year. As I was looking at the stats over the offseason I ended up asking myself, considering just 2011 and nothing else, which of the O's 9 starters in the batting order would I trade straight up for his Tampa counterpart?

Reynolds for Longoria? In a heartbeat.
Roberts for Zobrist? If Roberts isn't healthy and Zobrist hits like he did 2 years ago. Yes. If Roberts is relatively healthy and Zobrist hits like he did last year? Nope. Let's call this one a maybe.

After that I don't see another trade I'd want to make.
Weiters for Jaso? No
Vlad for Manny? No.
Lee for Johnson? No
Hardy for Brignac? Comparable hitters but better glove with Hardy. Nope.
Scott for Damon? No.
Jones for Upton? A couple of years ago for sure but with the downward trend in Upton's numbers the last 2 years, no way.
Markakis for Joyce? No.

All in all, I see our defence as just as good, our hitters and bullpen better. The only way Tampa finishes ahead of us is if our young starters don't perform and Tampa gets a turnaround from Shields and a breakout season from Hellickson.

@dan qz,

Agreed on Lester. The guy is very good in my book. He always kills the O's. But so did Pettite, or _any_lefty_starting_pitcher_name here.

Meso;

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised if Lester wins a CY Young some day.

@ Mike in Columbia

30 out of 30 teams taking Niemann and Davis. I mean, it's got to be at least 29 of 30, right.

To quote myself: "Lester is young, a lefty, not afraid to throw inside, and already has had a 200-plus IP year under his belt. I believe this one year his HR total will be high and his W-L record will be only a smidge over .500. Overall, I think he has a bright future but I'm predicting a middling 2011 for him."

All pitchers have down years. Palmer won seven games smack dab in the middle of eight 20-win seasons. I am only predicting a down year for Lester based on his increased walks and hit batters, and the possibility he may need to "keep down" with an offense that had many injuries and a bullpen that may not be all that. Batters are already more patient. If the HR total creeps back close to 20 as in '09, they may be multi-run HRs.

Do not interpret my prediction as a condemnation. If his record is a smidge over .500 -- let's say 15-13 -- on a team that finishes 80-82, that is hardly a condemnation. And some of that won't necessarily be his doing (even if I'm right).

Anyone who thinks I wouldn't take Lester as an Oriole in a proverbial heartbeat is totally misreading my one-year-only prediction.

For those of you who have written of James Shields...

In 2010, guys hit .341 against Shields when they put the ball in play. That is ridiculous. In '07 and '08, that number was around .280, and in '09, it was around .300. Even a return to the .300ish mark would put Shields' ERA back in the low to mid 4.00's.

Stick a fork in him if you want, but James Shields is going to be good in 2011. Fangraphs said this about Shields in their "20 Bold Predictions for 2011":

James Shields posts a sub-3.80 ERA. Yeah yeah, I know he has been good before, but he has actually only posted an ERA below 3.80 once in his career. Last season was a disaster on the surface, but he posted a career high 8.3 K/9 and a career best 3.72 xFIP. He is an easy rebound candidate and an ERA below 4.00 should come as no surprise.

For the record, Lester already have three 200+ IP seasons under his belt.

A couple of points, waspman...

- The Sox did struggle with injuries last season, but they still won 89 games. What injuries are going to push them down to 80 wins this year?

- Your thoughts on Lester and Buccholz are exactly the opposite of those of the baseball universe. A bunch of scouts/GMs/[insert whatever other team employee here]s have questioned whether or not Buccholz is the real deal, citing his lack of experience and his .261 BABIP in 2010.

That same community is jumping on the Lester bandwagon, with several of them picking him to win the AL Cy Young this year. I'm with them. Lester may have had an elevated walk rate in 2010, but he still pitched to a 3.25 ERA with that elevated walk rate. The guy is a damn good pitcher, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's the absolute best in the AL this year.

By the by, my dark horse for absolute best in the AL this year is Oakland's Brett Anderson

As I said on an earlier thread I have absolutely no idea how this team will end up this year, other than the fact that they should score more runs. Therefore I will not make any predictions for wins and losses, there are just too many variables with this team.

I explained the three scenarios that I thought may happen...One: Pretty much everything goes right, the starting pitchers and regulars stay healthy and everybody has at least a representative year based on their career statistics. As a result the Orioles surprise and contend for the wild card. Angelos is encouraged to make serious investments in marquee talent and International Scouting and the franchise takes a giant step towards resepectability. I like this scenario. It could happen. As a mtter of fact, it's what we are all hoping for.

Scenario Two; The starting pitching gets battered and the bullpen collapses as a result. Several of the key regulars spend significant time on the DL. The Orioles are pretty much out of it by the trade deadline and Angelos decides it's a waste of money to spend on FA's after what he spent this year, nor does he invest in International Scouting. The one year contracts are traded for prospects and Andy Macphail says it's all part of the ongoing rebuilding plan. I hope this does not happen. But it could. The one reason I don't think this scenario is the most likely is that Buck Showalter is the manager and will not let the team quit, no matter what.

Scenario three, something in between. The team improves to 75 to 78 wins, some regulars underperform and the starting rotation pitches adequately, but not spectacularly. The one year players are not traded at the deadline because the team is still in it, but later are put through waivers and claimed by contenders. I hope this does not happen either.

I intend to enjoy the season. It should be interesting.

@ not brooks.

Good looking out on Shields. I mentioned before how his #'s were wildly unlucky and unlikely to continue. I think I drafted him in every fantasy draft this year, and expect big things from him this year. (the discount on him in fantasy circles was bananas.) Do you think Price repeats last year's numbers? I think he ends up more 3.30's ERA range than 2.72 ERA again. He's unbelivably talented, but 2.70's again...not unless his name is Pedro, imho.

Re: Lester: Waspman, I'm not gonna kill you on the Lester, as all players have bad years even the great ones. It's a prediction. It should also be noted that he has 3 straight years of 200 innings. Injury coming??

paulie -

I don't think Price will repeat that 2.70 ERA. I think you're right, that he'll probably be around 3.30 or so.

Aside from improvements in K/9 and BB/9, which should be expected for a guy of Price's caliber, the only big difference between 2009 and 2010 was the home run rate, which was basically cut in half.

So really, you just have to decide whether 0.65 home runs per nine is attainable. I don't think it is, and this year, Price will suffer from giving up a few more gopher balls than he did in '10.

Look for the same thing to happen with Clayton Kershaw. He's got deadly stuff, especially that curveball, and he plays in a decent pitcher's park, but 0.57 homers per nine isn't happening again.

Let's see how the NY Post writer's prediction shakes out here... My guess, the Post writer knows nothing, Law and Rosenthal know all. To think, he can work in the warehouse and at a major metro paper. Versatile.

not brooks;

I'm sure you would agree that a hard hit grounder at a hole in the infield is going to have a greater likelihood to get through for a hit than a ball hit more softly. As well, a hard hit liner to one of the outfield gaps is going to have a greater chance to get down for a hit than one hit less hard.

My point is that BABIP is not simply and solely an indicator of good or bad fortune beyond a pitcher's control. Like every stat in baseball it is affected by other factors. It can be a hint that a pitcher is getting hit hard.

In the case of Shields, he gave up 24 HRs in 2008 (1 HR every 9 IP) with 7 FEWER hits than IP.

In 2009 he gave up 29 HRs (1 every 7 IP) with 20 MORE hits than IP.

In 2010 he gave up 34 HRs (1 every 6 IP) with 43 MORE hits than IP.

There is a pattern here NB that is pretty easy to see. As he has been increasingly getting hit hard, so too has he been giving up more hits overall. This isn't a coincidence.

dan -

I would agree with you if we were talking about the difference between a .300 BABIP and a .310 BABIP. But we're talking about 40 points here. That's not going to happen again.

Also, check out Shield's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) numbers. His FIP in 2009 was 4.02, and his ERA that year was 4.14. Sounds about right. But last year, his FIP was 4.24, and his ERA was 5.18. Chalk it up to bad defense or just a few more balls squeaking through the holes and the gaps. Either way, that's just plain unlucky, my friend.

And speaking of stats being affected by other factors, look at the trend in Shields' HR/FB%. It's not like the massive increase that Jeremy Guthrie showed in his FB% the year that he gave up 35 home runs. In Shields' case, it's just that a few more of those fly balls started leaving the park.

Of course, when it comes down to it, I'm just spinning the stats the way that I want to and you're spinning the stats the way you want to. Fortunately, for both of us, we don't have to wait much longer to judge Shields on what actually happens this season.

For the last time, my prediction involving Boston and their players is a one-year prediction -- not an overall assessment of their organization versus ours, not Lester versus Buchholz, or anything like that. It is a 2011 prediction. I am predicting Boston will be an aberration because I think they are ripe for it. One year. One year only. This year.

I do think Buchholz is the real deal as purely a standalone statement.

Other points ... Jenks? An improvement? Maybe. He's a one-inning pitcher who pitches in one-third of his team's games and he hasn't done anything to impress me since 2008. Wheeler? An improvement? Maybe. But I see another one-inning pitcher who hasn't even done that since 2007 and who is prone to giving up the long ball. In fair territory.

Injuries ... I'm not saying Boston will have more injuries, hence, the extra six-game slide. I'm saying the entire team is a year older (less Crawford of course) and their young call-ups sure didn't answer the bell for them last year.

Ortiz alone is an interesting case study. Big Papi (who comes up with these names?) was rumored to be washed up in '08 when he missed a third of the games and saw his BA drop nearly 70 points. His last two years, he has propped up some of his important numbers closer to what the once were (32 HRs, 102 RBIs last year), but at what expense?

His BA the last three years are below his lifetime numbers and his strikeouts are personal highs. Translation: He's cheating on the fastball. He's a great hitter and a great power hitter, and like all greats like this Father Time will catch up at some point. If it happened to Frank Robinson, it will happen to anybody and everybody. 2011 will not be kind to Ortiz -- that's my prediction.

If the Red Sox stay healthy and can produce up to their previous individual capabilities, they could be in the triple digits with wins. I'm simply not predicting that for 2011. That's all.

It's just that it's a bizarre prediction, waspman. That's all.

Why predict a one-year aberration for a team that's healthier than it was a year ago and acquired the two best offensive players on the market this winter?

It just doesn't make sense.