Samuel failed as a manager. It's no wonder he did not want to come back, he saw what Buck accomplished with the same team, easy to understand!

Class act, I wish him well. O's could use more guys with his character.

Trembley had class, too!

I certainly will give Juan Samuel all the slack in the world for taking over a failed baseball club with no chance to establish anything for the future. However, when will everyone get over this nonsense that Buck Showalter owes so much to Brian Roberts coming back?

Don't get me wrong. Roberts is an important cog if the Orioles are going to win their 82nd game in a season for the first time since August 23, 1997. This is especially true considering Cesar Izturis and Robert Andino are next in line.

The facts are Dave Trembley and Samuel were 3-8 with Roberts in the line-up in 2010 whereas Showalter was 7-2 without Roberts in the line-up. Trembley managed 470 games and only had four 7-2 stretches:

(1) July 17 - August 1, 2007 (five combinations)
(2) May 7 - 18, 2008 (two combinations)*
(3) May 22 - 29, 2009
(4) June 13 - 21, 2009
(* - Roberts did not play all nine games in either combination)

As for the pitching being better, does anyone truly believe that was pure happenstance instead of how the staff was actually handled?

And not to bash Samuel because he handled a difficult media question very well, but the change in pitching was neither just "Koji" nor some overlapping performance that hit stride when Showalter took over. In the last nine games under Samuel, the Oriole ERA was 6.72 compared to 3.57 for Showalter in the next 57 games.

Walks per nine innings dropped from 3.71 to 2.67. Strikeouts per nine innings improved from 5.79 to 6.65. And Home Runs per nine innings went from 1.74 to 1.06.

That must have been one heck of a lengthy contract, too, if they couldn't get on the same page.

Earl Weaver would not have won with that club last year. You cannot say that Showalter won with the same group of guys because, as even Showalter points out, many of the injured came back. Roberts, Gonzalez, Johnson, and Koji, to name four.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if Roberts had not been injured and if all the othe players had not missed time, chances are we would have Showalter here right now. If they got off to a routine 400 to 450 start, Trembley might never had gotten fired. And if Dave did get fired, Samuel might have been asked to stay if some of the walking wounded came back while he was still in the dugout.

The shame of it all is both Trembley were asked to babysit the team until such time that real players were brought in. Once real players got here, Tremble and Samuel never had a chance to manage them, so we'll never know what they could have done with a better team.

So, you cannot just automatically call either Trembley or Samuel failures because the deck was stacked against both.

Ken,

You prefer to think of 'what Trembley could have done with a real team'. I prefer to think 'Why didn't we fire Trembley in the offseason?'

Samuel gets a pass, because he was a 1st time manager on a tryout for a sub .400 team, and players knew it. But Trembley never gave us any reason to think he could have been a decent manager. Look at his minor league track record. Reputation is as a good baseball man and instructor. So make him a scout or a minor league instructor. But he's never turned heads as a manager.

There's a significantly different approach between Trembley and Buck - one that players and fans can see. And Roberts, Gonzo, Koji, etc didn't change this club from doormat to winners. Look at waspman's stats - that's not just based on BRob's return. The differnce was having a seasoned, successful manager at the helm.

We'll never know what Buck could have done with this team if he had it to start 2010. But I'd certainly rather think about that than Trembley not getting an opportunity with a 'real' team.

Of course he's no longer with the O's......He's not American.

Can anyone guess which national sportswriter has jumped all over the O's poor minor league and international scouting systems?

It's not me folks......

But if you can't see how unbelievably horrific the O's are in recruiting internationally, then you're simply living a lie as pertaining to the Orioles.

It's pathetic, and one of the main reasons the team is so consistently horrific.... having to acquire past their prime 3/4 season rentals.

And before you start mentioning the few international names the O's do have in the system..... look around the league, especially the good teams.

But oh, that's right.... Improving in this area was in AM's great Plan.

Right....

Isn't it funny that it takes the National media to show O's fans what's really going on around here?

No one finds that interesting? Not even a little?

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Apparently not. Maybe if this were 2002, it would be interesting, or 2004, but now it just is what it is.

Your last post had me on the floor laughing........the thought of seeing you riding a bike anywhere.......god you are funny.

wayne,

No one talks about the international shortcomings of this organization. And you're right, it was one of the first things Andy said he was going to change. Sorry Andy, but getting Koji hasn't exactly broken any kind of international barrier.

How can this happen? How can a team be so obviously deficient in a glaring area without ever showing signs of turning the corner? All we hear from Andy is 'we still need to improve in that area'.

I just don't see any grand plan in place. The minors have fallen once again, we're no further along internationally, and everyone is hoping that we win 81 games, as if that's a huge accomplishment.

In sum, was Andy's plan after 4 years to be a 500 team, have a poorly rated minor league system and be going no where with international signings? Sorry guys, but wayne has his pulse on things better than most. I know it's tough to hear and that I'll be called a wayner or whatever. But it's true.

OMG, Wayne has a twin! With Wayne AND jc acting as antagonists of the O's fan base, we're doomed! How in the world will we ever get to enjoy baseball in Baltimore again?!?!?!?!

Ummm Wayne,

Might want to check your facts there.

Juan Samuel is from Puerto Rico and as such has US Citizenship. So therefore fits the definition of American you post.

But semantics aside you make a valid point.

Our international scouting is horrific (Using your correct term as I can't think of a better word) and shows no sign of getting better soon.

Fran In Baltimore

@wayne,

It's not surprising considering he covered the O's for so long. You really thought that was interesting or odd? If it were a beatwriter from Minneapolis, yes, that would be interesting.

The farm system IS weak, and international scouting IS poor. Again, we know these things already.

A lot of that is because the youth that is in now the majors. 4 years ago, our roster had many older players - Conine, Millar, Lopez, Trachsel, Payton - and our major league youth talent was Cabrera, Fahey, Fiorentino, and Liz. Today, we have many young players at the major league level. Turning this ship around isn't as easy as signing Cliff Lee, Beltre, Werth, and trading for AGon as you would prefer.

With that said, AM and Joe Jordan probably get a C+ for the drafts since '07. Time will tell if that grade goes up or down. They've done OK. International though, an easy F.

But as another blog site pointed out, "This is not a crisis just yet, nor is the situation as dire as Rosenthal makes it out to be." When you have 1/2 your roster 27 years or younger, and really only have 2 older players (Vlad and Lee), the need for immeidate player development becomes less and you can focus your time and money on stocking up the minors.

Maybe no one - including you - realized just how bad the O's were at all levels in 2007.

Oh Crud,

Born in "San Pedro de Macorís, Dominican Republic"

Need more Coffee.

Fran In Baltimore

This team needs to get at least one Latin-born member on the coaching staff. The coaching staff should reflect the players on the field. The Latino coach serve as the bridge between Latino Players and Manager. They serve as a means to strengthen communication within the organization and hopefully improve results.

@jc,

Wayne has no more of a pulse on this than anyone else on this site. Did it take Wayne's comment for you and others to realize that international scouting was bad? Maybe for the casual O's fan who thinks Mussina is still pitching for us. But for those on this site, we know these things already. Neither Wayne, nor you, nor Rosenthal are providing any great revelation. You're insulting your own intelligence and others by making that statement.

Wait! Mussina does not play for the O's anymore? I thought he and Cal Jr where going to get us over the hump this year. Maybe Eddie will will play a strong first base. Weaver is a great coach, so we should be pretty good this year even with out Mussina!

jc, wayne, et al -

The state of international scouting in Baltimore is pathetic at best.

That said, the real story he is Andy MacPhail's philosophy on international players. From what I understand, he's not diving into the international market because he doesn't like how the system works: You go down to Venezuela (or where ever...) and watch a two or three day showcase camp, which is a model that can easily emphasize player strengths and hide weaknesses. You don't get to see games, you don't get an extended look at any player. You just have to judge the players on the limited amount of their abilities that you get to see.

So that's all well and good. A guy is entitled to his own philosophy. But just because you don't like the way it works doesn't mean you just give up on one of the best ways to find talent. You can't argue the percentage of top MLB players that were acquired as international free agents. There's no way around it.

So, with that in mind, Andy has to find a way to make it work for him and the Orioles. He absolutely cannot continue to have zero presence in the international market. There's no way around that either.

PS to Pete -

We all know that wayne can grate on anyone and everyone here, but I think it's pretty irresponsible to dismiss the Orioles lack of international presence lack it's not that big of a deal.

Because it's been an issue for so long, "it is what it is"? Sorry, Pete, but that's not good enough. This is something that needs to change as soon as possible. I mean, sure, if it was the only problem, it would be ok, I guess. But the Orioles aren't willing to go all in on franchise-changing free agents either.

You can try to build through the amateur draft only, but if you're not supplementing that with something else, whether it's international free agents or MLB free agents, it's most likely not going to work. Especially in this division.

@ Not Brooks,

Well that is why "Progressive" teams have sponsored academy's in those countries.

Heck its not exactly a new thing. The LA Dodgers pioneered this new "Idea" back in 1987. "Campo Las Palmas" down in and this is ironic given my fail post above.

"The Dominican Republic"

You see the Orioles involved with some leagues down there. But they don't have anything of substance setup.

Fran In Baltimore

nb,

I've heard about how AM doesn't like the system, thus won't partake like other organizations.... To me, this is just another area that falls under the 'game has passed him by' category.

The man, while being a nice guy, is steps behind current day, forward thinking, high level execs. And it's hurting the Orioles tremendously.

As you alluded to... that the local media doesn't do their jobs by delving deeply into this subject, is just plain irresponsible.

I understand wanting to have a good relationship with the front office, but locally, it's gotten to the point where it has become unprofessional.

And the thing is..... they know it...

I know this is Pete's blog, and usually I just ignore wayne, but today I just gotta say, "give it a rest, wayne."

"I'm upset about the past, I'm worried about the future, and our international scouting stinks"

Who cares if we have have the best team since 1997?

You mean to tell me Rosenthal wrote something critical about the O's?
I'm shocked I tell ya just shocked!
Next thing you know you'll tell me Obama is a Marxist!

The international scouting and player development is pretty horrible. Always has been, but Andy called it out as something that needed attention, and still it's an issue. Fail. And worse...no seeming progress.

Maybe now that the Spring Training facilities are completed, the money and attention is available for the Venezuelan compound....or the South Korean...

yeah right.

Switching the Stockstills was a mistake. If neither were good enough to keep doing what they were doing before, they both should have been let go.

That being said, look at all of the international busts. For ever Chapman there is an Irabu. Remember when Dice-K was supposed to be the second coming of baseball Jesus? $51.1 million just to talk to him, let alone sign him? How'd he do the last two years? 4-6 and 9-6 with a salary of over $8 million per? Is that what we want from McPhail too? Are you kidding me?

The system is a sham. It's all rigged to get the players, more importantly their handlers, paid. If the price is right, get a guy. If the price is completely stupid, let someone else be stupid.

I love how wayne has to shut his mouth about the Orioles as they are making improvements so he brings up international scouting. If they are doing well at the All Star Break, I predict he'll be criticizing the new concessions vendor or the ballboy/girl every time they miss a grounder.

I hope y'all are ready for a few more years of MacPhail.

"MacPhail isn't going anywhere" - Peter Angelos 3/1/11

Evedently, the fans outcry means nothing. And the Guerrero signing was coincidental, it had nothing to do with the fans. I don't care what you want to believe.

Ever heard of a Hail Mary?

As far as international scouting goes, I'll use one of many of MacPhail's platitudes - "We climbing a mountain, sometimes you need to keep climbing without looking up".

LOL I hope you guys see the humor in that. I'll use my own platitude, "Like a fart in a whrilwind"...

@Ken,

For realz? You can't call Trembley a failure? His record speaks for itself. His baseball knowledge is questionable. His decision making process was horrible. His lineups were anemic. He couldn't motivate the players or put them in the best position to succeed. He was just a yes man who was over-matched in every aspect. He was simply a loser.

To your point about Earl Weaver not being able to win with that team. We will never know; however Buck seemed to have a pretty good record, unbelievable record actually, with the same players.

MacPhail is a smart guy. I will never understand his decision to hire Dave Trembley subjecting fans to pure torture for 3 1/2 years.

Just one question for all of those that don't like AM who do you think would take his place??

Not to say that they couldn't find someone else, but considering PA's reputation around baseball as of today and as much as I agree with a majority of the criticisms that have been lobbed at AM. I doubt anyone of any quality would take the job, then again I am still surprised that Buck took the managers job.

@Bernard in SC,

I don't think it matters. Peter Angelos went on record a couple of days ago that "MacPhail isn't going anywhere". A huge mistake, but I can see why. MacPhail is a business GM, not a baseball GM.

For 3 1/2 years of Trembley's tenure, we've heard it from the warehousers:

* nobody can do better with this team
* who would you hire that is better than Trembley.

Thankfully, we know the answer to those questions now. I can't pretend here that I know much about baseball GMs. But if I were willing to guess, I would say MacPhail is not the best choice for any MLB GM position on any team willing to contend. MacPhail has 9 seasons of 90+ losses between Cubs and O's. To be fair, his World Series wins carry some weight; however a very long time has passed since he had some success.

"Evedently, the fans outcry means nothing."

Hey Dave, The negative posters on here who post the same stuff over and over and over again are NOT reflective of the majority of fans.
The idea that we should fire Macphail and start another rebuilding is idiotic and just ridiculous anyway. The team needs stability and AM has done a terrific job.

@smitty,

You wrote: "The negative posters on here who post the same stuff over and over and over again are NOT reflective of the majority of fans"

--

Really?! So, would you say the empty seats at OPACY (a.k.a Fenway South), for the past 4 years, are reflective of how the majority of fans feel either? No?! How about on Yankee or Redsox weekend series? Is the attendance of the away fans reflective of how the majority of O's fans feel?! No? Not even then?

Terrific job? Is that what you call his record? Terrific? How about horrific? Don't you think that's a bit more reflective of the actual record, as in numbers of wins and losses?

I think all of what you speak of will be different in a few months. The story is not over.

but have at it....you have a few more weeks to complain..

Sorry smit my boy,

But Meso just played you like a fiddle.... not just any fiddle, but a grand ole opera hall of fame fiddle....

I felt you cringe from here.

Dave,

Great post..... Most feel your pain. All but smitty I should say. You see, when he makes a prediction (like he always does), then that prediction gets flattened (like it always does), he just goes onto the next prediction.... followed by, you guessed it... the next prediction.

It's what keeps him going. It's what he has... It's all he has.

That's why we love him so......

Can anyone guess which national sportswriter has jumped all over the O's poor minor league and international scouting systems?
It's not me folks......
Wayne

When did he become a sportswriter? Did I miss something? Somebody flip the joint upside down? And how many times do i have to tell you, this table is all about original ideas and decent punctuation. Zero on both counts. You know i don't suffer fools gladly....and I've been known to splash a martini in the face of folks who use phrases like 'delve deeply'. Please, someone escort that bore to the door and grab another round for my tolerant friends....

smitty -

Which majority are you talking the about? The fans who'd rather watch the games on T.V. all year, or the ones with their heads buried?

I'm not worried about the lineup. But if the rotation doesn't move forward, the rebuilding will have to start over. It's either that, or keep the hope for 5-6 years like we did with Sidney Ponson and Daniel Cabrera, who was supposed to be the future cornerstones of today's rotation.

At some point, AM is going to have to grow a pair during an offseason, or else you're going to see the same results over and over and over and over and over.....

The is the guy (AM) we're stuck with. I pray that this rotation makes forward progress, but you have to look at reality too. Potential can get you to the majors, but if a player can't show some kind of progress by AT LEAST the 3rd year, you got to dump him.

And for the Orioles, they can't afford to wait that long for some players

dave -

Matusz certainly has that kind of potential, and he's shown that kind of progress.

It's quite a bit iffy on the other three.

Tillman has been an unmitigated disaster in the majors. The only thing he has on his side is age, and if he tanks again this year, he'll get another shot next year because "he's only 24". And if that doesn't work, he'll get another shot in 2013 because he's only 25".

Come to think of it, Tillman is the new Daniel Cabrera. The only difference is that Tillman made it to the show two years earlier than Cabrera, so if Tillman never amounts to anything, we'll have to wait even longer to cut the dead weight.

Arrieta has obviously experienced more success than Tillman, but his strikeout and walk rates in 2010 weren't at all encouraging. Those ratios were great in September, but we need to see this guy in that kind of form for a full season.

Of our "big five" (Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Bergesen and Britton), Arrieta probably has the least impressive stuff, but he's got the big league mentality for sure, and I could imagine him as a Dallas Braden type if he can figure out how to keep the walks down.

Bergesen is the biggest question mark in my book. He's got fantastic ground-ball inducing stuff when he's on, but when he's not on, he's got batting practice stuff.

If he can stay healthy and figure out how to be "on" 90% of the time, he'll be a solid middle to back end of the rotation kind of guy.

That's it. Now that I'm done, I'm not really sure what the purpose of this post is. Just my thoughts on our young starters, I guess.

PS - I've never seen Zach Britton pitch, so aside from knowing that he's got a filthy sinker that induces ridiculous ground ball rates, I don't know what else to say about him.

wayne supposedly doesn't use other names, yet Fran Smith doesn't know how to make a plural out of a word ending with y either.

That "she" supports his POV and he posted 10 minutes later AND she has the same 3rd grade grammar mistakes is pure coincidence.

Bust on smitty some more for the supposed multiname, Fran-wayne-Steve-Allan.

Wayne, did Dorothy Parker just play you like a fiddle? No one would know better than you. And what on earth is "grand old opera"? Can you embarrass yourself any more?

For a change, some baseball thoughts:

Not Brooks, calling Tillman an "unmitigated disaster" in the majors is a bit much. Remember when the O's put utility infielder Manny Alexander on the mound back in the 90s? THAT was an unmitigated disaster.

Tillman's major league numbers are bad. There's no denying it. It's also why the fifth starter spot is open, and I think it's safe to say that Buck isn't going to give the spot away. I've been rooting for VandenHurk since he's out of options, but if someone outperforms him, he'll have to be cut.

We really should wait on Britton due to all the weird contract nonsense, but he's an excellent pitcher. I watched him in the Futures game last year, and his sheer poise was quite impressive. As I recall, he had a runner on third with no outs, and made it through the inning without the runner scoring. I'd say that we need more of that in Baltimore....

Since you brought him up... where is Daniel Cabrera these days?

Just to be clear to everyone, there seems to be two JC's on this board. I am not an O's basher or a MacPhail basher. I am a native Baltimorean living in NYC who hates the Yanks and loves the O's. I grew up in the heyday at Memorial Stadium.

I find it extremely interesting that when the Wayne gang has nothing to bash based on O's performance, they look under rocks and garbage cans to find other strange things to attach, like the accusation that Juan Samuel is not with the O's because the O's are a racist organization (blame MacPhail of course) against Latin talent - all common sense evidence to the contrary. The O's have begun establishing a long overdue prescence in the DR which will take time to bear fruit. Machado, I guess to the crazy haters, is not really Latin. Samuel, I guess to the haters, was not offered a job with the O's that he publicly declined. Honestly, I think Samuel made the right decision because it's hard to be in charge in the dugout and then step aside for a new manager.

But remember please, that the O's, even in ST, are doing everything right right now. Buck has soothed the nerves of the injured vets and not allowed them to rush back onto the field - so that BRob and DLee and Duke have the very best chance to stay healthy and productive. Buck has praised Wieters not just for his stick thus far but for his dedication to being a leader in the clubhouse - in the face of the garbage article calling Wieters the biggest bust in baseball. Buck allowed a ping pong table into the clubhouse - thank you Markakis - knowing that nothing bonds and relaxes pro athletes more than a fun, competitive off-the-field pastime like ping pong. In all the little things, Buck is steering this ship in the right direction, and, as any casual fan of baseball knows, baseball is all about the little things. All about the little details. All about the process and the preparation. If you take care of the little things, you give your athletes the opportunity to perform at their highest level. It's one hit a week. One extra base. One pick-off. One less walk. One more strike. One clutch sacrifice. That's what a winning culture is. The difference between 2-10 and 3-10 is .200 and .300. That's the difference between stardom and AAA. Between HOF and bagging groceries.

JC, thanks for the identity clarification. I think folks will be able to recognize you by the tone of your comments.

Don't forget the upgraded Spring Training facility itself. The impact of a much-improved ST facility has to be monumental for this team. I never went, but apparently the Fort Lauderdale facilities were absolutely embarrassing. Man, the effect of starting a season in a place like that must ensure that a team never takes off. The pictures from Sarasota look gorgeous, and it speaks volumes to the guys on the team that ST preparation, comfort, and professionalism matter to this franchise.

(P.S. this is the second year in a row that wayne has randomly accused people of racism. Sad, but we're accustomed to it.)

"At some point, AM is going to have to grow a pair during an offseason, or else you're going to see the same results over and over and over and over and over....."

Dave in GB

Well, Dave you have really put the pressure on Macphail there....and in such an eloquent manner. Did you just make that term up? "grow a pair?" can i use it?

You simply don't understand the rebuilding that's been taking place.
It's not been the same thing over and over...it's been building towards this year and next year and the year after that.
You can join the list of posters who wanted marginal free agent signings and your wish list of folks who didn't want to come here. That's a boring subject. Live in the present and future.
The fruit of Macphails rebuilding is 2011,2012 2013.
Enjoy it!

Thanks Birdfan. A couple of things: 1) If intelligent folks who belong on these boards make strong enough points (on point) often enough and in enough numbers, we can run the haters off and they can spew their poison elsewhere. 2) People without a sense of history never see history while its being made until its done and they jump on the bandwagon as though they'd been there all along. Winning baseball teams are all about the core. The O's have had cores made up of Brooks, Frank, Palmer, Cuellar, McNally, et al and Cal, Eddie, Dennis M, Boddicker, Scotty M. Dempsey, etc. The Yanks core was Jeter, Mariano, Bernie, Pettitte, Posada, etc. Remember that before their present core, the Yankees sucked. I mean they really sucked. Maybe not as bad as the most Mussina O's, but pretty bad. Do we know whether the current O's core of Markakis, BRob, Wieters, Jones, Matusz, Guthrie, Bergeson, Arrieta, Tillman, Reimold, etc. will be enough to turn the corner? No. Did we go into last year thinking that was the year? Sort of. But things never gel when you think they will and last year was a year too early and stopgaps like Millwood and Atkins and Lugo were not the same as Vlad and DLee and Hardy and Gregg. The haters keep bashing because they know that this core, and the players AM acquired to complement them, just might be the core to compete with the aging Yanks and a depleted Rays team. But, understand, that the BoSox also have a remarkable present core - Pedroia, and Youk and Buchholz and Lester and Ellsbury and Papelbon, etc. - that they have loaded up with FA's. But, as we all know, the Giants won the series last year, so strange things can and do happen. Haters beware.

JC, you are preaching to the choir, can I have an amen!

One hit per week is the difference between a .240 and .300 hitter. One more hit per week...

Buck is apparently running a great camp, bonding, building individual confidence, and building a team. Buck's done a great job since day one, he has these guys believing they can get that extra hit, make that extra defensive play, or bear down and get one more batter.

Not Brooks, I've watched these young rotation guys come through Frederick. I've posted on here before that Britton and Matusz were the two best LH'ers I've seen on a minor league team. And Spoone is a guy that's just as good as the rest if he regains his health.

I'd agree the biggest question about this team is still the rotation. But that second veteran guy could come out of no where. I still stick to my early assertion that Duke ends up in extended spring training working himself into game shape. He probably ends up pitching a rehab assignment before we see him here.

Three years is a long time to be off of a mound, it takes a long time to get back in mound shape. Wayne "in his many forms" will gleefully call him a bust when Duke doesn't come north with the team, but I believe Duke pitches effectively by May.

But Drese cruised through his first assignment retiring all 6 batters he faced, he could very well break camp with a slot in the rotation. Buck and Conner have had Drese before, and he pitched for them with some success, so his making the rotation if he's pitching well wouldn't shock me.

And Britton, he's got the best "stuff" of the bunch, and he's not afraid to use it. Two fastballs to SO Ryan Howard gives you a clue of that.

But it's that filthy sinker that throws with consistancy that is his meal ticket. In the minors guys have known it's coming and can't handle it. It's really a version of his fastball with natural sink, so it's a hard pitch, useally around 92 mph. It's also a really live pitch, but the real kicker is that it's really hard to pickup since he throws it off his fastball motion.

Tillman won't get chance after chance because there's another wave of young guys coming up right behind him. Britton and Spoone are the next two, but there are more to follow...

I've never seen Chory Spoone pitch, mountainfan, but that walk rate, combined with a not-too-impressive K-rate, is terrifying.

5.4 BB/9 and only 6.0 K/9 from a 24-year-old in AA for the second time isn't much to get excited about.

Birdfan - I think "unmitigated disaster" is the perfect term for Tillman. I would classify position players on the mound as just something funny that happens in a blowout.

Tillman's big league walk rate (4.2) is beyond terrible considering his low K-rate (5.3). He's given up almost two homers per nine. The ERA is bad, bad, bad. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) is actually worse than his ERA.

Negative WAR...

Got destroyed in 2010, even with a low BABIP (.256)...

91.5% contact rate against him in 2010 when he was in the strike zone...

As a big league pitcher, Tillman has walked too many, struck out too few, given up way too many home runs, and allowed way too much contact.

Just plain bad...

To underline JC's point, when real Oriole fans, discuss real baseball, Wayne and his 6 or 7 other identies all go into hibernation.

I've certainly been one to accuse wayne of not being an Oriole fan when I'm most frustrated with him, but the fact is, that's just not true.

Sure, it can seem like his only purpose is to hang around and bash Andy while sticking to whatever discussion point interests him for days and weeks on end. But, when it comes down to it, the only reason wayne, or anyone else for that matter, bashes Andy is because he wants to see the Orioles win and he doesn't think Andy is doing the right things to make that happen. And, to be honest, guys like wayne and Gil and Mesotheliangelos really do have compelling cases.

Anyway, I have no doubt that wayne is much happier to leave Oriole Park after an O's win than an O's loss. And if you're happy when the O's win, well, you're probably an O's fan.

not brooks;

I have to take a little bit of an exception to your remarks about Bergesen. When he came up in 09, his first half dozen starts were very iffy, but once he got rolling he put together about 15 starts averaging 7IP and an ERA in the low to mid 2's.

After his season ending injury and the further problem with his shoulder in the offseason, he struggled mightily, but once he got himself back up to speed he put together another 10 or 11 starts with similiar numbers to his 09 stats.

Seems to me that all this guy has done when healthy is perform very well.

Just a quick point, Tillman doesn't turn 23 until April 15th of this year.

Maybe a little premature to drop the whole "unmitigated disaster" thing on him.

As stupid as it is to call Wieters a bust after 226 games, its equally stupid to call Tillman a bust after 23 games pitched. Throw the kid out there for 30 starts and see what he can do. Or stick him in the bullpen in long relief. He has nothing left to prove at AAA and the only way he will be able to learn how to get major league hitters out is to face major league hitters. There's no need to sign a marginal veteran simply because he provides a "veteran presence" or he's "a gamer" or "a bulldog" or any other term for something that is unquantifiable. Either we're trying to win now or we're developing the young pitchers, but don't block someone in order to finish with 79 wins instead on 74.

dan -

I like Bergesen a lot. It just seems to me that he really needs to be "on" to be successful. He doesn't have lights out stuff, so when he doesn't have a feel for his stuff, he can get knocked around pretty easily.

Iceman -

I didn't say that Tillman as a pitcher is an unmitigated disaster. I was talking specifically about the big league results we've seen from him. How else would you categorize those results?

Iceman, to be fair, Not Brooks said that Tillman "has been" an unmitigated disaster. If he'd called Tillman a bust (as the Prospectus guys recently tagged Wieters), it would definitely be premature. The numbers Not Brooks brings to the equation are pretty compelling for his argument, though.

To that end, Not Brooks, I commend your use of stats to back up your argument. Since you brought up a little analysis of wayne's world, I'll use the same point to note wayne's consistent inabilty/refusal to back up his arguments with useful statistics. There's nothing compelling about that, nor is it worthy of respect when his tirades are so frequently antagonistic, redundant, and self-indulgent.

If wayne leaves OPACY happy after a win, good for him. Hopefully we can all share that in common. That doesn't pardon his behavior on this blog. His vitriol exceeded his substance here a long, long time ago, and there is little left to be very compelling. Wayne may have hooked into this blog because he's an Oriole fan, but his current participation in this community has less to do with sharing passion for baseball conversation than it does with obsessively intentional antagonism and self-promotion. No thanks, wayne or your ilk. Not compelling at all.

Since this IS a baseball blog, though, here's a question I have for people who still want to talk baseball:

What are your top pick for infielders coming off the bench?

Given the past couple days, I'm more interested in Fox than in Tatum. Izturis is a given, and Fox has versatility and pop. I guess it depends whether the pitchers are comfortable throwing to him, too--Tatum has experience with the staff.

Anyway, I pick Fox and Izturis... though would that freed spot for Reimold could hinder him from getting useful at bats he'd be getting in Norfolk....

Ouch, sorry. Poor grammar as a result of changing a few words around.

Who are your top picks for infielders coming off the bench?

And my concern about Reimold making the 25-man roster is that it could keep him from getting useful at bats that would be readily available in Norfolk.

Koji, here we go again...Oh wait, that's why we signed Gregg, what do all you people who think we didn't need him think now? Once glass, always glass!

Ummm,

I am not wayne and if you look at some of my posts over on the Ravens Board you will see me slamming him.

I just agreed that our international efforts are pretty pathetic.

With Wayne you get that any blind squirrel can find a nut type of thing.

Anyone really want to paint Wayne in a corner. ??

Well the Orioles under AM have in fact opened up a Baseball Academy back when AM came here. That was back in 2007. Do a little internet research and you will see that factoid.

It sorta contradicts my own post but "SINCE I AM NOT WAYNE" I will post a retraction. Actually done it a few times in this thread.

You see I run my own business and at times I take calls while posting to this blog so my posts end up rushed and sometimes confusing.

But here it goes. Wayne please tell us what sort of expansion of our International Presence did we have in the Beattie/Flanny Years ??

Since you are so fricking fond of pointing that out as an example of how AM has failed ???

And here is a last one Wayne. Since you love posting this crap justification over on the ravens blog (He tells people there to shut up because Flacco, Harbaugh will make more money in a year of there new contracts than we lowly posters make in a lifetime. So they must be good right ??)

This year AM will get a new contract Wayne that will pay him as much in a year than you will or will ever make in your life.

So he must be a rousing success and you must just be a bitter "Fan" with an axe to grind huh ??

Look I am NOT happy with whats gone on with the O's and not sold at all on AM.

But as I have posted elsewhere here.

Its a less steaming pile of dung now.

And has been for at least 10 years.

Are we suppose to be happy with this ??

No but it is what it is and I will still show up at the Yard and I will still root for wins.

Another note. I am not a grammar major and actually a computer programmer.

Actually UNIX.

My world is all sed , awk , ls , cc , ps , vi etc. (Just command line UNIX)

I don't know about these complete sentences formed for you carbon life forms you speak about.

But I do life this game of Baseball and I do love the O's.

Go O's

Fran In Baltimore

See,

It should read

"But I do love this game of Baseball and I do love the O's."

I do get paid by the line for my "Code" and that counts even for the Bugs introduced by my mistakes.

So its become a habit.

Fran In Baltimore

Also,

You guys do understand that slamming people over perceived affiliation makes you just as annoying/nasty as this Wayne person you pretend to act above.

I was a bit hurt by the unfair post.

I don't want to be characterized by anything but my bumbling poor grammar self. That is enough of a cross to bear right there. :-)

Fran In Baltimore

#!/usr/bin/perl

my $friend = "Fran Smith";

if ($you{get_paid}) {
@per_line = qw( you're writing spaghetti code );
} elsif ($you{are}) {
@real_programmer = qw(you write short and modular code);
}

# this code compiles by the way :-)

@ Meso,

That put a smile on my face.

Fran In Baltimore

PS: I am poking fun at myself. I can do that with confidence. I do actually care about the code I write and I follow the Grace Hopper rules of coding which state in so many words. Keep it simple stupid.

Of course she invented Cobol which IMHO contradicts that. :-)

The problem, fellow Birdies, is with the culture, not the players. It has been hard on everyone in Birdnation to endure 13 losing seasons. Ever since Jeffrey Maier's interference, it has been a horrible stretch, a stench permeating every aspect of the organization. But what some here on the board fail to realize, or maybe refuse to realize, is that it takes time to change a culture. To call Tillman an unmitigated disaster in ANY context, is just hyperbole borne of frustration and anger at the past 13 seasons. Ollie Perez! Now that's an unmitigated disaster! Roderigo Lopez - an unmitigated disaster! Chris Tillman? Hardly. He's a kid who has come up with an organization that has the professional sports equivalent of a bedbug infestation. Getting rid of the infestation of LOSING requires more than one visit by the exterminator and more than one fumigation. To get rid of the culture of losing, a culture within which even the BEST of talented ballplayers cannot thrive, is MacPhail's task. Do you care, really?, if Chris Tillman doesn't find his consistency for another year or so? He'll be 25 for the love of mike! Will you be disappointed if Matusz doesn't win the Cy Young this year? Of course not. There's no question that the O's have a tremendous young core of players. There isn't an analyst in baseball that doesn't think so. But to lose patience with individual kids because they are in an organization that hasn't won since they were in grammar school - is ridiculous. Finally, the O's found the manager to help them change the culture, to turn the corner. Finally, they demonstrated a stretch of winning baseball last year. Don't judge the kids by what they didn't do before, judge them by how they begin to fulfill their potential this year, next year, and for many years to come. We may not want it to be a slow process, but it IS a slow process. These are just kids. Talented, gifted athletes who are just now starting to understand that doing the everyday little things, the everyday little professional things, day after day, inning by inning, pitch by pitch, jam by jam, is a process that can lead to winning. They will learn, my friends. They will learn. Buck will teach them. And this year, my hope is that Vlad will teach them and DLee will teach them. And Buck will teach them.

@ jc

Excellent points. But what has been the constant during this time ???

Potter is who.

Now I heard him on the radio during the opening game the other day and he sounded different to me. Less confrontational and it seemed like he realizes that he does not have much time left and his legacy as far as this team is important.

I think the following.

Every O's fan wants that joyful parade in Oct downtown. We all want this team to win. I think every player thinks and wants that as well. This goes for every team in the Major Leagues and spans all of sports.

What I don't think is as clear is the ownership and management. I think they "Want" the above. (That Parade) But they are not able to "Do" the above at least now going on 13 years. And even worse is at times it seems like they could care less.

However I do think that the Titanic that has been the O's for the last 13 years is slowly steering away from the iceberg.

It takes many years to undo grievous mistakes and even that undoing is going to be fraught with new mistakes.

But we all want the same thing right ??

Also people lay off Peter Schmuck. I noticed that during games he actually takes the time to answer people with his posts. That is not saying Jeff Zrebiec is not doing a great job as he certainly is.

Just saying that Peter Schmuck actually engages with us "Fans" and good and bad that is a hell of a good job right there.

We could have what they have on other Sun Blogs. Which is heavy editing and mass censorship of opposing views to the blogger.

Fran In Baltimore

Fran,

Since you're me.... you know what I'm about to say....

Do you people realize that smitty actually sits around all day and attempts to find commonalities within post so he can find someone who spells or uses similar grammar to mine? He actually does this...... which is so freakin hilarious...

Anyway Fran, I have never said that the Beattie/Flanny regime was a good one. In fact, they were terrible. That said however, they were (overall) better than AM.

One big difference though Fran.... When Beattie/Flanny were really bad, the local media destroyed them... I mean destroyed.

But now that AM is horrid as well, the man simply gets a pass.

A pass on losses (more than Beattie/Flanny).

A pass on the current pitiful minor league ranking.

A pass on international recruiting.

A pass on wanting Wedge over Buck.

A pass on getting a pass....

But as nb as noted, we're describing really bad vs really, really bad.

nb,

Thanks.... I think. You hit the nail on the head though. If one harps on the the disaster that has been AM, you're called a 'hater'

Fact is, I simply hate to lose, while posters like smit, mountain, paulie, jc, etc.... never care..... ever.

To them, it's the same thing year after year. I mean look at jc's post. The only difference is that he's replaced last years names with this years. It has literally become overwhelmingly hilarious....

jc,

Someone copies you, yet you go on a tirade against me? Hey bro, join the club. I've had people copying me for over a year. You just have to roll with it my man. Take it like I do, as a compliment.

Cheers

It seems as though The Bore has confused the words 'copy' and 'mock'?

Does it surprise anyone at the table?

See, here's how it's done...

nice, post nb! Thanks for putting! those words in my MOUTH, as I have lots, of trouble actually providing a post that, isn't contradicted(((is that a WORD?!) by me the greatest somewhere else on the blog and is backed up by anything other than Ws and Ls!!
And if you, don't believe in Ws and Ls and that's all your opinion is not valid.
All you have is words and I have Ws!!!!!!!!!
Pete you lap, dog you!!!!
and as for those posts on the Ravens, blog someone obviously copying me??? again. Oh boy! another compliment!!!!!!!!

Dorothy,

Now that was a good post. Seriously....

Begs the question... Am I really a bore?

Worse than the L's, the empty seats, yankee and red sox nation at the yard, the national lack of respect for our minors, the laughingstock international effort, the hoping for a 500 record?

I'm more boring than all of that?

I like you.... I'll be checking in later tonight, hoping for more of your refreshing input.

@ Wayne,

Actually all of that is exciting. I know its pathetic but I actually wanted us to set that all time loss record. I actually love seeing our ballpark taken over. I actually love seeing the bumbling attempts at rebuilding.

But that is what a cynical fan lives and breathes.

But seriously. I relish the tragedy that is the O's because I know that unless it truly goes to hell. No one at OPACY will do anything.

.500 baseball will just lead to more years of mediocre. More years of Fans (And yes we are all Fans here posting) being drowned out by the apologists and ownership as bitter naysayers.

But passionate fans like most everyone here will NOT give up.

Wayne , Meso , Smitty , Not Brooks , Paulie , Squirrel and the rest of you don't change and don't apologize.

You are Fans and you have a right to be a Fan of this team on YOUR terms.

So continue the banter and try and not get personal. Try to understand we all want that Parade in Oct.

Some of us more so than others.

Fran In Baltimore

Comparative Study.

Here are the first 2 seasons of 2 AL East, 21 year old, 6'5" RHP.

Player A:

Year 1: 72.2 IP 29BB 58K 4.46 ERA 1.28 WHIP .235 BAA

Year 2: 34.0 IP 15BB 23K 6.62ERA 1.71 WHIP .314 BAA

Player B:

Year 1: 65.0 IP 24BB 39K 5.40 ERA 1.55 WHIP .297 BAA

Year 2: 53.2 IP 31 BB 31K 5.87 ERA 1.53 WHIP .255 BAA.

One pitcher in Chris Tillman. The other is Phil Hughes.

I'd say the only conclusion someone can make about Tillman is...the jury is still out.

Short answer, Yes. Well, let me work thru the list and see ifI can't find something in there you are not more boring than.

First, I don't think things like 'respect' and 'laughingstock' have anything to do with something being boring. I guess if that's all you talked about..push comes to shove i'll call it a draw. If those could be characterized as boring, you are tied with them. Kudos my man, as you say.

Now:
More boring than Yankee and Red Sox fans? Oh how you kid! Not even close.Check.Check again.

More boring than an empty seat? Tough one, and I don't mean to be cruel,but yes.
There's a certain charm to a seat in a ballpark, empty or not. You ain't got it mister.

Here's what the maitre de said(he's always looking over my shoulder ): I am positive that my cat has had more interesting conversations with the mouse she is about to eat than anything I've ever read from him.

So there you have it. That was fun. More questions please.

PS: We so loved the way you stuck up for the Latinos, even if it was to make sure that your favorite team was keeping an eye out for a good SS. Keep up the good work!!

!!= just for good measure

Paulie,

I agree that the jury is still out on Tillman. I've called him bust at times out of frustration, I've come to realize he is a product of bad teaching and poor minor league training. I've come to believe that many O's pitchers have been victims of the circumstances (e.g Daniel Cabrera, Adam Lowen, Hayden Penn and others. I think the O's have a knack for destroying talent. Being a bad team will do that to young talent. Hopefully with Buck being the manager there will be new directives given to the duds in the minors.

@Birdfan,

I couldn't help but noticing your euphoric rationale on how a new spring training facility is going to make champions out of perennial losers. Is that what the Yankees and the Redox had that we didn't have. Is it as easy at that?

How did Tampa Bay make the World Series playing at a stadium like the Trop? That stadium is an embarrassment to professional sports (all of them).

I'd like to see some pictures of the training facilities the '66, '69-'71 and '83 Orioles played in. They must have been state of the art, luxurious as all get out. How could you explain that success otherwise?

Wow, so early and the AM (and you're surprised?) list continues to grow...

Duch - Didn't even get to the first game of ST.

Koji - Defines 'and you're surprised'?

Come on folks..... I wish I were making this up, but are you kidding me?

Or the better question is.....

And you're surprised?

who's surprised? I cannot recall anyone on here claiming either of those guys were anything but fragile. We've beaten the Duch signing to death, and Koji signed an incentive-laden contract based on the number of games he's in. I guess they did that for a reason. So to short circuit your alarm, no one is surprised.

Dorothy, lay off of Wayne. Where'd we be without the voice of reason?? Don't tell me, it's a rhetorical ??.

meso;

I don't think that the poor results Tillman has had at the major league level has anything to do with "bad teaching and poor minor league training." If that were true, why has he done so well down there?

There's no mystery here. We brought Tillman up when he was 21 and 22 years old and it's a relative rarity for pitchers that age to cut it in the majors.

Take a look at the other young guys we've got. Arrieta got his first shot last year at 24. Bergesen and Matusz were both 23. Johnson was 24 and the list goes on.

Take a look at Philly's starters. They all came up or had positive results between 23 and 25. David Price with Tampa didn't blossom until last year at age 24.

We've been expecting too much of Tillman at too young an age.

@wayne,

No need to worry my friend. MacPhail told us that there is no such thing as a bad one year deal. And I'm sure Koji (3 million + no trade clause), Vlad (8 million), Lee (7.25 million and 3+ million in incentives) and
Duch (can earn up to 4.5 million), all agree with that assessment.

@dan qz,

I'm a big proponent of drafting college players, especially pitchers. It's no surprise that Matusz and Arrietta seem to be more polished and have more upside than Bergesen or Tillman who didn't go to college.

You make a valid point about Tillman pitching lights out in the minors and chocking in the majors.

dan,

Don't try using logic around here. It never works.

Tillman is grabage and we traded away an ace to get him and McPhail secretly waterboards O's fans in a secret office in the Warehouse before urinating on all the retired numbers on Eutaw Street. Oh, and he shrunk all of Pete's Hawaiian shirts.

Sorry it didn't rhyme.

Meso,
what's your point? wayne infers that everyone is surprised, and you make it about money..it's not your money is it?

Meso, where on earth did you read anyone saying that our Spring Training facility will make champions out of perennial losers? Does someone pay you to make this stuff up?

meso;

I agree with you about college versus high school draftees. Years back Bill James wrote a good article on the subject where he looked back over the previous 20 to 30 years.

While it's too long ago for me to remember the numbers he came up with, I remember it was pretty stark. There is just a far, far higher likelihood of college guys ending up having major league careers.

Who knows how Tillman will eventually turn out? It brings to mind something Buck said just a week or two ago to the effect that pitchers mature at their own speed in their own time and unfortunately it can't be dictated.

Smitty "grow a pair", you like that? no? Maybe "lack of testicular fortitude" would've a been better description. Anyway, I was down with the rebuilding until last year. I also understood and agreed with AM's moves early in his tenure. But what he's doing now should've been done 2 years ago. I like most of his signings this offseason, but none of equates to winning baseball. To repeat myself, unless the rotation continues its progress and manages to stay healthy most of season, there's going to be a lot of problems due to lack of depth. If not, and if a couple of the pitchers regress along with that, its going to be another nightmare. If the future is now, it's going to take a lot of good fortunes to make me confident going forward. And if a winning season does happen, I hope AM doesn't settle and has another busy '11-12offsea

Smitty "grow a pair", you like that? no? Maybe "lack of testicular fortitude" would've a been better description. Anyway, I was down with the rebuilding until last year. I also understood and agreed with AM's moves early in his tenure. But what he's doing now should've been done 2 years ago. I like most of his signings this offseason, but none of equates to winning baseball. To repeat myself, unless the rotation continues its progress and manages to stay healthy most of season, there's going to be a lot of problems due to lack of depth. If not, and if a couple of the pitchers regress along with that, its going to be another nightmare. If the future is now, it's going to take a lot of good fortunes to make me confident going forward. And if a winning season does happen, I hope AM doesn't settle and has another busy '11-12offsea

James C;

Yeah, I know what you mean. As far as trading an ace away though, given how little Bedard has been able to pitch ever since, 160 innings over the last 3 years, thank God we did.

@jim66,

No sir it's not my money, and I wish Angeloser could spend a ton more of it. Just pointing out that a couple of these one year patches will have a lesser value than garbage when one or two players get hurt. Unlike what MacPhail wants us to believe.

So for MacPhail it won't be a big deal, because the moves weren't too risky, hence the gamble/payoff ratio was something that didn't hurt his master's pocket book.

Mark my words: I will be the first one to come in here and give full credit to Andy MacPhail when his gamble pays off. But I can guaranty you that you and other apologists will come here and say any or all of the following in no particular order:

1. so what we lost a player or two? It's not like we mortgaged our future.
2. This year wasn't about wins or losses
3. It takes at least 5 years to rebuild
4. Nobody could have done a better job
5. We can't outspend the Yankees or the Redsox.
6. _put_your_excuse_here

@dan qz,

Bedard has got to be one of the most overrated pitchers in the history of the game. People (including me), have overvalued Bedard too much and use "ace" to describe him too loosely. He never had any eye popping numbers with the O's. His ERA was respectable (under 4). He had an OK win 40/loss 34 record. He rarely pitched over the 6th inning. The most games he won in a season was 15. He was constantly hurt. Personally, I've never seen a pitcher lazier than Bedard. Always looking toward the bullpen to see if anyone was warming up.

@ Mes & dan qz

I dunno about HS vs. College Pitchers. Zach Greinke, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Scott Kasmir were all HS pitchers from the same draft as Adam Lowen. As long as pitching is such a premium young arms will continue to go off the board early. Taillon was rated by every pro-scout as the best arm in last years draft, and so he went.

Dan, you mentioned an article detailing how there is a wide imbalance between HS and College pitchers and their development...was there a correlation made between the Ace's vs effective Starters. That is to say, if the ratio is 4 of 10 HS pitchers make it the majors, and it's 7-10 for College--I wonder if the 4 from the HS project out as higher "upside" than the College counter parts. There are an amazing amount of High school pitchers taken in the drafts...maybe it's all based on availability.

In general, I kinda don't care about college vs. HS pitchers. If professionals believe in a players talents, then there should be nothing stopping them from drafting them. The NBA's requirement's for draft eligibility I detest, so I'm probably a little biased. I guess I'm kinda a free market type when it comes to Athletes...let the Pro's do their jobs with as few restrictions as possible.

dave in glen burnie;

While I understand your concern over our starting rotation, I think the same can be said of the rest of the teams in the AL east as well.

New York looks like it might have real problems. Toronto is going to have to depend on a lot of young guys without long track records, the same as we're going to have to. Even Tampa and Boston have questions that need to be answered.

Tampa has an ace in Price, Nieman and Davis who had ERAs in the low to mid 4's in about 165-170 IP each, Hellickson who has just 35 IP at the major leage level is being looked at as their 5 guy, and Shields who hasn't put up a good ERA since 08 and is coming off a truely awful season with 34 HRs and 246 hits in 203 IP. Ouch!

Boston has Lester and Bucholz who were real good last year, then Lackey who was very so-so, as well as Matsuzaka with a 4.70 ERA and Beckett with an awful 5.78 ERA.

As far as depth is concerned, we've got Guthrie, Matusz and Bergesen who I think should all do reasonably well. Trying to fill out the 4 and 5 spots are Arrieta, Duch, Britton, Tillman, Vandenhurk and Patton, although he's pretty borderline.

Now that may not be as much depth as you or I would like, but it is undeniably better than any staff we've had in the last 10 years or more.

Seriously, can you think of a staff we've had that has more promise than we're looking at this year. Give AM credit for at least that.

@Paulie,

There may be a ton of reasons why teams draft out of high school instead of college. some of it has to do with the fact that they want to dangle the prospect in front of fans for a few years. Some has to do with their upside.

I don't think anyone could easily arrive at a conclusion about HS vs college. There are just two many variables. But just speculating, I'd say the following are 2 reasons college prospects are better to have.

a) the maturity level that comes with getting a college education, and

b) the benefit of staying with one program in 4 years rather than moving up and down A, Double and Triple A teams.

I have to say that I love discussion about our pitching, and pitching in general.

A few points:

1. I never meant to even hint at Tillman being a bust. All I'm saying is that he's been a disaster so far in the bigs. Could he turn it around? Certainly, and I hope he does.

2. Meso - Bedard did post "eye-popping" numbers in 2007 with our Birds. That year, he led the AL in hits per nine and strikeouts per nine. 221 strikeouts in 182 innings. That's insane.

That said, essentially everything you said about Bedard is correct. Inconsistent? Yup. Easily fatigued? Yup. Injury prone? Yup. Lazy? It sure seemed that way.

3. wayne - I don't think you can lump anyone in with smitty. After reading his comments on this post, I'm almost convinced that smitty is playing a character.

paulie;

That's a very good question and I'd be lying if I pretended to know the answer.

To be clear though, a/ James didn't say that you shouldn't ever draft high school guys, just that it's more of a crap shoot than it is with college guys and b/ I didn't raise that issue to suggest that I'm down on Tillman's chances.

I still think there is some serious potential there. I'm not close to writing him off. I just think that we've rushed him to the big leagues and laid a world of expectations on him at a pretty young age. Some guys are capable of doing it, but the overwhelming majority of them just aren't.

It's way to early to get down on the guy. Roy Halladay is a good example of that. He came up when he was 22, pitched well, but the next year totally imploded and ended up getting sent down with an ERA above 10. He came back up part way through the next season and pitched well if only in about 100 IP. He didn't end up blossoming until he was 25.

Tillman has 3 more years before he gets to that age. Patience.

1. I love pitching. It's my favorite thing about baseball...you can have you're 40 HR, give me the Ryan, Randy, Pedro, Clemens, and Doc rotation!

2. Tillman: I can't say I know what his hang up is, but it doesn't seem inconsistent with other young pitchers. I'll say that this year, for me anyway, is kinda a notch down year. If he's in AAA anything worse than a 2.40 ERA will seem like a disappointment.

3. Bedard: gotta give Andy his due. I hated the Trade because I was so enamored with Bedard. A power lefty in and AL East...yeah, I was a fan. 2007 was amazing. But Andy sold high, and it's hard to argue that keeping Bedard was a better move now...or even then. I'm still a Bedard fan, and I'd be happy to have his strange Canadian arm on the staff.

4. dan qz. You're making a bunch of sense. Please re-read the blog's (implied) agreement: it's not permitted. But well said none-the-less.

5. Mes. Can't argue with that.

meso;

One thing to keep in mind about Bedard, his record in 06 and 07 was 28 and 16 ( .636 winning percentage) with a combined ERA of about 3.40. That with a team that had a winning percentage of .432. Not too shabby.

There's really way too much level-headed logic flying around here tonight.

Maybe it's just the eye of the hurricane.

Good talk, fellas.

paulie;

I admittedly haven't seen Tillman as much as I would like. That said, a couple of observations from what I have seen.

1/ He seems to pitch up a lot. If you've got some serious heat then fair enough, but the gun readings on his fastball are usually 90-92. With that speed, you're going to pay a price for that and he does by giving up a HR about every 5 IP.

2/ He seems to throw just fastballs and curves. If he has a 3rd or 4th pitch I haven't seen them. Hard to be a starter in the majors relying on mainly 2 pitches.

Maybe you've seen him more than I have. What do you make of him?

not brooks;

I wouldn't mind hearing your impressions of Tillman. Do I fairly summarize him in my 1:55am post.

dan -

I haven't seen much of Tillman either. My impressions are essentially the same as yours.

The only thing I would add is that the fastball doesn't have any significant movement.

The combination of the fastball and curveball has been good enough for Tillman to succeed against minor league talent, but it's obviously not cutting it in the majors. If he could add some lateral movement to the fastball, he might be able to get by with just two pitches.

I think I read somewhere a while back that Tillman was working on a changeup - does anyone else know anything about that?

dan qz,

So you want us to 'at least' give AM credit for the pitching?

For Guthrie? Sorry, has to go to previous regime.

For Bergy? Sorry, has to go to previous regime.

For Arrieta? Sorry, has to go to the previous regime.

For Britton? Sorry, has to go to the previous regime.

For _________? Starting to get the picture dan?

And AM will have been here 4 years by summer. Four years...

Four.

There was actually good conversation going on, wayne. Do you seriously wonder why people call you a bore--and mean it?

Under MacPhail, we've gotten rid of an ace (Bedard), signed another potential ace (Matusz), signed or traded for depth (Duchscherer, Tillman, Patton, VandenHurk) and allowed other pitchers to develop at good rates (Bergesen, Berken, Britton), UNLIKE under the last regime (Cabrera, Loewen, Penn to name but a few).

The relationship between GM and the pitching staff isn't just about bringing new people in, wayne. Was MacPhail really supposed to get rid of all the existing talent in order to sign/draft a new staff and prove his mettle? Where do you come up with this stuff?

birdfan,

relax homie..... You raised a point, in the form of a question - and I answered it. Now just because you don't like the answer and have to go into spin when coming back at me.... well that's your right. Good try though - I still love ya...

nb,

smitty is harmless actually. When I came up with the term 'warehouser', it was with smitty in mind. If you look at his post over the last couple years, there's no question that he's an employee of the O's (in one form or another). Oh, he'll deny it (i understand such), but that's ok.

Everyone has to do what they need to do in order to put food on the table. I respect smitty for such. Besides, the blog would be boring without him.

66,

The point? You'll see the point as the season rolls on. Do I have to really point it out overall?

As for Duch... The team needed a reliable SP, and this is the guy AM picked up? Oh sure, what's the harm in only spending 700k.... even if he had zero chance of being on the field for any worthwhile amount of time.

And Koji? Here's another starting pitcher AM brilliantly brought to the O's? EVERYONE knew this guy was no longer a starter..... yet what did AM do?

SInce then he's been broken down more than Pete can actually Blog about him (which is usually a great amount).

That AM.... he sure finds the SP's.... Eaton, Hill, Milly, Simon... sorry, but this list would just be toooo darn long to type,

Anyway, you'll see about the rest of AM's risk/reward bunch as we get closer. I agree with you though Jim....

.... It's not as if we should be surprised.

Wayne, your response was to dan qz, not to me. Again, what are you talking about?

Wayne;

At about 10:30 last night a pretty free wheeling discussion about pitching started here involving several posters that went on for three and a half hours until after 2 o'clock in the morning. A wide variety of topics in about 15 to 20 posts were discussed from Tillman, to the O's pitching in general terms, to other AL staffs, the advisability of drafting college or HS players etc, etc.

You roll out of bed in the morning, go through all of this, and the only thing you can bring yourself to talk about is a reference to Andy MacPhail in one of all those posts.

Aren't you the guy who says you love baseball and the O's? Well, you had the chance to join the discussion and talk some baseball, but what do you do? You bring your almost maniacal fixation on AM into it as if it's the only thing worth talking about.

As Birdfan from Birth says, you're a really boring one trick pony. Get help man. AM is so deep in your head that he's sucked the joy that the game of baseball can give almost completely out of you. What an awful existence, being almost unable to speak of anything good. I'm not angry with you as many if not most posters on here are. I pity you. Sincerly. Get help. Being almost universally detested is not a badge of honor.

not brooks;

I heard as well that Tillman was working on a change up, but that to me says a lot. Aren't you supposed to have a set of pitches before you get to the majors?

And AM will have been here 4 years by summer. Four years...

Four.

Posted by: wayne | March 4, 2011 8:04 AM

Hey wayne,

How many years will AM have been here by summer (it's slipped my mind)?

(sung to the tune of the "Subway" $5 foot-longs jingle):

Four...Four years...Four years by summer.

birdfan, Sorry... yes, that was for dan the man.

dan qz,

I hear ya ole buddy. At times, I'll join in in the direct baseball discussion... at times, I won't. Such is everyone's choice, right?

You see danny boy, when someone says 'at least we can give him credit for that', when referring to the O's SP's, I personally believe it's important to distinguish if the man you're referring to should get credit or not.

As for my obsession over AM. Hmmmm. I wouldn't call it that, although I do appreciate your thoughts on such. Instead, I'd like to think I'm similar to the media (although I'm not media) and all the fans (most) who absolutely were on a mission to destroy the Beattie/Flanny campaign a while back.

I just feel it appropriate, especially since those guys (as horrible as they were), had to follow the worst regime in O's history... yet they won more games, and faired no worse overall then AM.

The difference? AM gets a pass. A big fat, juicy, ridiculously unfair, pass.

And while I give AM some credit (a little) for the new ST facility, most of you who give him HUGE props can't see how AM had the benefit of perfect timing. The O's had no choice but to leave once the airport tacked on that huge yearly fee.....

So while you and a couple others love to bash me, I'm simply attempting to be one of the few fair minded persons on this blog.

Something fans like you, as well as the media, refuse to do.

Funny... I'm called all kind of names, including a 'hater', while it's posters like you who really are the hateful one's.

You may want to think about it.

@dan qz, nb, etc -

I can't help but think that Mark Connor will help these young pitchers this year, more so than Kranitz. We saw what happened when Buck got here, now with Connor on board, whatever their strategies/philosophies are (and I don't know them exactly), the two of them should be able to help them better than just Buck on his own.

With that said, it would have been helpful for the O's to sign a #1/#2 starter during the offseason. 1, we could use someone to eat up the innings. 2, a pitching coach is one thing, an on-field mentor is another. 3, I still think Tillman can learn at Norfolk. Work on developing another pitch or two, and on his movement for his fastball. I liked Garland in the offseason, and thought he would have been a solid fit. Still take the dare on Duchsherer, but give Tillman, Arrieta just a bit more instruction on their pitches.

I still think we just don't know how bad the org was 4 years ago and how much repairing was, and still is, needed. We agree that blaming AM constantly isn't the most enlightening "conversation"...

Hopefully we'll see a significant difference with this new coaching staff in place.

Wayne;

1/ First of all, I'm not your "ole buddy", nor am I "dan the man" or "danny boy". Kindly don't refer to me as such.

2/ I never said anything to even imply that AM is responsible for every starter competing for a spot on our staff. My remark was in response to a poster that made a reference to depth in our staff, and AM is responsible in one way or another for most of it. He drafted Matusz, he signed Duch and Arrieta, he traded for Tillman, Vandenhurk and Patton. The only starters that AM had nothing to do with obtaining are Guthrie, Bergesen and Britton. That's 6 out of 9 guys who are the most likely guys to make our rotation. What part of that are you having a problem understanding?

petey, here's a list of the FA SP for 2011
and where they've been deployed...

who might you have signed for a #1 or #2?

http://baseball.about.com/od/newsrumors/a/2011-Mlb-Free-Agents-Starting-Pitchers.htm

PeteyPablo;

Agree with what you say, although I'm torn sometimes about signing someone else. It would take away the chance for some of the young guys in terms of being able to move up. I think Matusz, Bergesen, Arrieta and Britton (Tillman to a somewhat lesser extent) are capable of being a solid core for the future.

As far as talking about AM is concerned, both positively and negatively, I have no problem with it, just with those who insist on beating the subject like a dead horse.

PeteyPablo;

Sorry, the 12:51pm post was me. Forgot to sign on. Oops.

petey,

the deal with the young pitching, and it does not matter what org it is, is that they arrive ready to compete at the next level. there is always a learning curve, and pitchers are always looking to improve their stuff. but there's no excuse for them showing up with one pitch while still working on the other 2. it's a recipe for disaster.

To your point, if you're strategy is to grow the arms, then everyone better be on the same page as to how to get that done.
Pitching philosophies start in A, not at the major league level. By the time a guy is delivered to Connor, he shouldn't be shaking his head wondering how the hell the guy got there.

jim66;

You're definately right that a pitcher should have the pitches he needs to succeed by the time he arrives in the majors. A little refining is okay but he should already have the tools.

Tillman doesn't seem to have been handled that way. I hope we haven't damaged him by pushing to fast. As far as Arrieta is concerned, he has the pitches now to get the job done. He showed that in the last couple of months last year.

jim66 and dan qz,

I'd have made a run for Garland. And I'd have no problem with keeping Tillman and Arrieta in Norfolk until June or so, when they could possibly be called up with better command of their pitches. By then, one of the 5 starters is injured, ineffective, or traded.

I said in offseason here that we really needed a top pitcher. Can't change the roster now, I know. Garland is not a true #1, but he has veteran experience and decent track record.

I agree we have a solid core for future. Adding just 1 more proven arm could have helped keep this year.

jim66 and dan qz,

I'd have made a run for Garland. And I'd have no problem with keeping Tillman and Arrieta in Norfolk until June or so, when they could possibly be called up with better command of their pitches. By then, one of the 5 starters is injured, ineffective, or traded.

I said in offseason here that we really needed a top pitcher. Can't change the roster now, I know. Garland is not a true #1, but he has veteran experience and decent track record.

I agree we have a solid core for future. Adding just 1 more proven arm could have helped this year.

jim66,

I agree they should not show up with 1 pitch working on the other two; all the more reason to have them work it out in Norfolk than here. If the A-AAA approaches are different, then yes that's a big issue, but a different discussion. Obviously Buck did something to change the pitching results. It wasn't Kranitz or the pitchers themselves, or Koji's return. It was Buck, and I would think Connor helps even more. I didn't suggest pitching philosophies start in the majors, if that's what you took from that comment. How about "approach" or "handling" instead of philosophy?

PeteyPablo;

I think Arrieta is a little further along than you give him credit for. He had an ERA in the mid to high 3s from the beginning of August to the end last year. His main problem through most of the season was too many walks, but he really got that under control in the last couple of months. He's on my staff if he doesn't pitch himself off it in ST.

Petey, that's not what I took from your comment at all. I have to think that the best way to get guys up to the major leagues and have them be productive has to be a consistent approach to instruction at all levels. Nothing should be a surprise to any of them as they make their way thru the ranks.
And whatever Buck told the guys in Baltimore, I hope that's the message they hear all the way down to A ball. Because that's how you are going to get to Baltimore.

Baseball discussion on Pete's blog?
cool..
Thanks nb for saying I'm one of a kind....not sure what I said on this thread that's so much different than the others but I'll take it as the criticism it was meant as...and I will try to be the best poster I can be....

I love that I'm either related to Andy or work at the warehouse. ....either one would probably be fine with me...but nah just a hard working business owner who knows the difficult task of turning around a small company....which is why I've said all along ...be patient....it cracks me up with those who say..."well I was in for the rebuilding it til last year.." huh?....so the timetable you set in your own mind is reality? don't think so...
And then are those who act like even if we win 90 games this year that the rebuild is still a failure....now that's some kind of convoluted thinking if I ever heard...
Like I've said....this is about THIS YEAR. The wins need to come this year and next and the next....Then you can judge Andy...till then it's just silly talk really..

dan,

Sorry ole danny boy (who sang that and when by the way?). Didn't mean to ruffle your feathers.

Anyway, you're giving AM credit for Arrieta? Someone who was drafted by the previous GM's in the 5th round? You're giving him props for the signing of someone who was scouting and drafted by the previous regime?

Wow..... Some of you will go to any length....

As for duch..... you're correct, AM gets 100% full credit.

In order to honestly move forward 'sir' (is sir ok?), we must be truthful about where we've been and how we got where we are.

That's true in life, business.... and yes, baseball.

And that sir, is your free advice of the day....

free advice. you get what you pay for.

There's one argument you win hands down Weine (spelled like the french would).
AM should have released all the good young players that were already here so he could get FULL credit when they win his 3rd World Series. As it stands now he probably should only get like a 60% share since the players that will win the division were not truly his and his alone (there's a song in there.....
mine and mine Alooone....!"

So really you might as well keep repeating your argument until every last one of the warehouse types (there's only like 4 others) finally comes to grips with the fact there are some players on this team that were already here. It took me awhile to admit this fact.

A really up and coming GM (one for whom the game had not passed by) would surely have traded them away for even younger prospects to rebuild from the ground up properly.

We are finally in agreement. Your wit and brilliance have won the day...touche..but....
How bout Guthrie? I mean he's like a number one... Can't he at least take credit for.....no? ....bummer...you win

Oh and jim 66 did make me chuckle again.
...does that say more about him or me...

and Jim don't admit to anyone that I find your posts funny because the shunning is unbearable.....i feel like a pregnant unmarried girl in the 1950's sometimes...

weine, since you know how to post the full rosters can you like post the 2007 O's roster when AM took over and the 2011 roster now?
That would be good for some hearty laughs also.

66 made me laugh as well..... credit due....

For the last time smit, rosters don't matter. Names don't matter....

Only Wins my man. W's......

And Beattie/Flanny, who took over for the worst regime in O's history, won more games in the same time period than AM has.

Do you understand Wins smit and danny boy?

As for this season, if they do win 81 games, you'll have to give PA credit for at least Buck and Vlad.

Yes Baltimore,,,,, we've sunk so low as to now giving PA credit. AM's that bad of a current day (last 20 years) baseball exec.

Good golly miss molly

So there you have it a nut(case)shell.... Wayne would rather have the roster and coaching staff at the end of the Beattie/Flanny era than the roster/coaches we have now. Because it's all about wins and losses boys and girls, and 69-93 in '07 is better than 66-96 in '10. And remember, rosters don't matter. Only wins and losses.

Hey, where are we on the Wedgegate investigation? Find any incriminating emails in his shredder yet?

Good golly miss molly is right!

Hey PP,

I know... crazy, right?

This town destroyed Beattie/Flanny, yet they won more games than AM.

And looking at AM's #21 rated minor league system, along with his nationally criticized non action towards international activity.... you have to wonder how this guy gets a pass, while the previous regime was butchered.

Now don't get me wrong, Beattie/Flanny were awful. But keep in mind, they had to follow the most disastrous regime in the history of this organization. They were in an impossible situation.

AM had a brutal task ahead of him as well.... But hmmmmm PP, it sure doesn't seem he's any better.

Fewer wins
#21 ranked minors
Embarrassing international efforts
One year rentals in the middle of the line up
Markakis, Roberts, Reimy, Weiters, Guthrie, Bergy, Arrieta, Britton, etc were already here...

Ouch...

I'm just trying to be fair PP. How would you gauge fairness compared to how Beattie/Flanny were treated by the media and fans like you?

As for Wedge.... Just look up what even the Sun media was saying just prior to Bucks hiring. Everyone knew AM wanted Wedge and that PA chose Buck.

But that's ok... at least Buck's here.

Wheeew PP

Wayne,

If you think that the roster and the overall org were better at the end of the Beattie/Flanny era than where it is today, that's your opinion. But you and I can never debate that, because you've stated that rosters don't matter. I happen to think they do.

You say Flanny/Beattie had an "impossible situation". And you feel they left it in a possible (albeit brutal)situation when they left. Again, I would debate you there, but I can't because only wins matter.

The problem is you really can't debate anything because of your hatred for AM's performance. No objectivity, no real insight, no real evaluation. Just the same old complaint. We could talk pitchers, hitters, rosters, coaches, trends, age of players, drafts, minor leagues...but what's the point of doing that with you? You simply want AM gone - we all know that. To you, nothing else matters.

I'll keep reading about players and spring training while you keep complaining about AM, acting like Wedgegate is relevant, and wishing someone like you were writing for the Sun. Thank goodness there isn't.

Great PP,

You keep talking 'real evaluation'.

Me? I'll talk the L's since he's been here, the growth of mainly players he had nothing to do with, the #21 ranked minor league system, the embarrassing international efforts, the injured/one year rentals he brought to the team this season, the worst W/L percentage of any executive in MLB over the past 20 years..... and so much more.

But oh wait.... I just want AM gone because all the things above aren't true.

Have fun with your 'real evaluations' PP