O's: FanFest in the rear view
Since The Sun had several writers blogging from FanFest yesterday, I thought I'd save my thoughts on the event until today. Of course, that's partly because my fingers were still frozen several hours after I kicked off my day by jumping into the 33-degree water of the Chesapeake Bay at the Maryland State Police Polar Bear Plunge.
There's proof that I actually went through with it. The WBAL Sportsline Plunge Team -- which also included Jared Ruderman, Brett Hollander and Chris "The Professor" Imms -- skipped into the water hand-in-hand at 7:55 a.m. It wasn't pretty, and I'm pretty sure we temporarily raised the water level in the bay several inches, but we survived.
Quick heads up: Though Chris is called "The Professor" on the Ron Smith Show, you probably don't want him teaching your children to swim. We're just happy he's still with us today.
I wish I could have stayed around for some of the other festivities, or to sit in one of the hot tubs to warm up, but I raced right out of Sandy Point State Park and headed for the Convention Center, where the line to get into FanFest stretched all the way around the facility. Apparently, expectations are a bit higher this year, despite what some of our more critical friends here would like you to believe.
The real proof was at the beginning of the first big Q&A session featuring Andy MacPhail and Buck Showalter. Ever seat in front of the main stage was full and Showalter got a huge ovation when he was introduced. MacPhail was also welcomed warmly, but fans clearly give Buck a ton of credit for the late-season turnaround. As they should.
To keep it in perspective. It is called FanFest, so you have to figure that the people who paid $10 to get in are fans and are more likely to be positive about the team than the fans who no longer go to the games...or spend their time torching the team on the message boards. That doesn't mean there isn't a huge number of disaffected fans who are still frustrated and disbelieving. They've got every right to be.
My colleague Dan Connolly recently put up a blog item asking fans to predict how many games the Orioles are going to win this year. The lowest serious response was 69 wins and the majority of responses was in the 80s.
That's a pretty optimistic response. Dan predicted 75 wins. If you forced me to make a prediction now, instead of in March, I would probably say 78. If everybody stays healthy and the young players continue to evolve, I could see the O's getting into the 80s, but that's asking quite a lot.
The average response at Connolly's Corner Sports Bar was about 83, which I would say is pretty darn optimisitic.
I'm wondering, however, if Dan's blog is just populated by a more positive group of Orioles fans than this one, so I'll throw his question at everybody here. How many games will the O's win this year. Feel free to be witty and sarcastic, but I want the number to be what you really believe the number will be, for better or worse, and I want an exact number. It's hard to get an average when indecisive people say "between 75 and 82."
Go to town.
> 
Comments
34-23 = .578 winning percentage. Over a 162 game season, were talking 93.78 wins...or 94. Why isn't this possible with a bolstered lineup added to the squad who put up that record against the AL East teams needing to win to get into the playoffs? Maybe I'm overly optimistic but ill go with the numbers and say the O's will put up 94 W's.
Also, when is Brady Anderson going to be back in the dugout? Sounds like he's doing work.
Posted by: Thomas | January 30, 2011 12:11 PM
85
Posted by: jbalt | January 30, 2011 12:11 PM
I'm going to predict 74 wins. This would make a grand total of 14 consecutive losing seasons. Can't wait for the season, 'cause this Birdland.
Posted by: Kevin | January 30, 2011 12:12 PM
I'll say 75. An improvement over last year but the O's are still stuck playing half of their games against the AL East so I can't be any more optimistic than that. Until they have talent approaching the other teams (which they don't), these seasons will continue.
Posted by: TJ | January 30, 2011 12:14 PM
I say they get off the losing schneid and win 84 games...
Posted by: keith | January 30, 2011 12:19 PM
I think they play .500 against the good teams and beat up on the bad teams. Boston is going to be a problem, and Tampa Bay is not going to roll over.(still stick to .500 against them) Any other division and i'd say 95. AL East...88? I'm just a fan...not a baseball expert. I do understand that that would be at or near a historic wins increase year over year.
Posted by: JasonH | January 30, 2011 12:22 PM
82
Posted by: Nancy | January 30, 2011 12:26 PM
I say 82, taking into consideration the adding of players which I think are very positive, the healthy expectations of Robby, Berken, and others, the projected improvement of our young pitchers, and improved years from Weiters,Jones, and Markakis. Throw in the usual raft of injuries we seem to get and one or two dissapointing performances by key players, I think all this adds up to 82. Of course, if the majority of the above comes true and we additionally sign Vlad and/or a starter, we could raise the bar considerably.
Posted by: woodieman | January 30, 2011 12:29 PM
I'm going down the middle to a .500 win percentage. 81 wins.
Posted by: Fred | January 30, 2011 12:30 PM
85!
Posted by: Tim | January 30, 2011 12:34 PM
Even with adding Vlad, a starting pitcher, and another lefty bullpen arm - less than 500.
76 is my final answer.
(w/o additions: 71)
Posted by: Boomer | January 30, 2011 12:42 PM
Pete,
Don't forget the O's pad the tix for FanFest. I have 2 seats in a 13 game plan but I was sent 4 tickets for FanFest, all of which got used. It's a message that people care, but they can only spend so much. The autograph lines were populated by well dressed folks in authentic gear, while the group wearing last years giveaway tee shirts waited on the outside...be careful who you alienate because you need everybody if you want to fill the Yard.
Posted by: Chris | January 30, 2011 12:52 PM
91.
Better offensively. The team is Healthy. Suprised more folks have not factored that in. TB is worse. Yanks may be a little worse. Also the Os showed improvement from aug on in 2010. The Orioles have "sleeper" written all over them but the national media will always favor the Boston / new York storylines. If we were in any other division could u see the Os winning it? I can.
No orange kool aid in the prediction. 91! N we r in the wilcard hunt.
Posted by: The Truth | January 30, 2011 12:58 PM
Chris, not sure why you'd get extra tickets for FanFest, unless you asked for them. We have 4 seats in a 13 game plan, and my rep sent me 4 FanFest tickets. He gave me one more when I asked, but only when I asked. I know they let you buy double your number of season tickets for Opening Day, but that's something entirely different. Maybe your rep is just more generous than mine.
Anyway, I'll predict 79 wins. Everything, and I mean everything, will have to swing the right way for them to get over the .500 hump. I'm looking forward to this season more than any in the recent past, though. I do think they'll be in most games because of the offense, which is a start.
Posted by: Julie | January 30, 2011 12:59 PM
They might need to consider moving this to another venue. The convention center seemed way too small for an event like this. Granted this was my first time to a fanfest in about a decade but it seemed to be a bit chaotic inside and it was hard to really do much of anything with lines wrapped around one floor.
Posted by: Chris | January 30, 2011 12:59 PM
Here we go again..........
Another Fanfest ---- YAAAAAAAAAY!!
Fans Peter? Seriously? How about it's just something to do on a cold day with snow outside and nothing exciting happening in sports on the tube this weekend.
No person with anything nearing a pulse could or should have given AM a warm greeting. To do so means (literally) that you're applauding complete failure. What else could it be called? Rebuilding?
Aside from Jones and Matuzs, please tell me what this guy starting doing over 4 years ago by way of rebuilding? Tillman perhaps? Right! How about Patton? A ST facility?
Name ONE position player this guy brought here one, two, three of four years ago that is in the minors and is anywhere close to being a major league player. Name him folks?
78 Pete?
What was your prediction last year? If I recall correctly, you gave the EXACT same 'if everyone stays healthy, I could see the O's getting into the 80's, but that's asking quite a lot'.
PETE, You said the exact same thing last season my man. It's not your fault, but when does it become laughable?
When you all meet in AM's Sarasota office at ST, will you all be yuking it up when this blowhard tells you how optimistic he is going into '11? Or will your friends in the media continue to simply kiss AM's behind at every opportunity?
Of course Buck got a warm welcome by the way. He's the best thing that has happened to the team since AM's time here.... And AM DIDN'T even want the guy. Let me ask you Pete... Name one other team in MLB where the manager is the FACE of the franchise. Go ahead.....
Oh, and I can't wait for Buck T-Shirt night at the park. Name another team that does that as well...... And why do they do such Pete? Well, I think we all know why.....
So here we are again everyone.... With optimism, you all are predicting 77, 78, 80, etc wins. In other words, you're optimistically predicting LOSING, again...
Just like you did last year, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before, and the year before......
And Just like you will again NEXT YEAR.......
...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Pretty tough talk from a guy who claimed he was coming to FanFest a year or so ago to ask Andy a tough question, then lost your nerve. Now you spend a half-hour repeating yourself in this marathon post. At least those people went outside on Saturday. I noticed you didn't make any prediction, because the last thing you're going to do is put yourself out there and take a chance on being wrong. When does it become laughable? It became laughable years ago. Now, the real fans are hoping something better happens -- regardless of how faint that hope might be -- and you crap on them like you're some kind of superior human because your so good at predicting the past. I bet you go to movies twice and yell out the ending.
Posted by: wayne | January 30, 2011 1:01 PM
97
Playoffs
GM of the year- your own Andy Macphail
Manager of the year- Eric Wedge...he he
Cy Young- Brian Matusz
MVP of the O's- Matt Weiters
Hope springs eternal!!!
Posted by: smitty | January 30, 2011 1:05 PM
If Orioles want to fill the "Yard" on a more regular basis. They are going to have to find a way to appeal more to the younger crowd. Fans in their 20's & 30's. I am not sure if they do that. The Sillies do it. The Red Sox do it. Somehow, they have to motivate the younger fan base to go to a ball game. From what I saw at the fanfest. A lot or long time fans and families. Really nothing in between. So if they w with little kiddies.If O's management want to start filling the yard again, start appealing to a younger crowd!
Anyway as for a win prediction wasn't 85 wins a popular number last year LOL.
That guess from the experts was a bit off wasn't it? As for me I am not going to predict, I just wish we would trade for some SP or pick up Jeremy Bonderman or Pedro Martinez.. I have no idea why they are wasting time with the "Duke".
Posted by: The Squirrel | January 30, 2011 1:05 PM
90.
24-48 against AL East in 2010 will be above .500 winning percentage.
37-44 Home record in 2010 also will be above .500.
(fun fact...even the 2010 O's managed an 18-17 record against the AL West. Those WS bound Rangers, those Money Ball pitching dynamo A's, and the perennial post season Angels. And NONE of the AL West teams managed even .500 against the AL East. None.)
Posted by: paulie | January 30, 2011 1:07 PM
75
Posted by: easywriter01 | January 30, 2011 1:09 PM
89.... last time this club was exciting was the WHY NOT year of 89... i say they do it again... WHY NOT II.... i think with the additions that they made will make them better all together and the pitching won't have to be as perfect to win games.. adding Vlad will only make this team better! from 68 to 89 is a big turn around but i see things this year you haven't seen in a very long time.. GO O'S!
Posted by: Putz44 | January 30, 2011 1:16 PM
80. that's with the hope that tillman, arretia and bergy pitch up to level. guthrie will do his thing and matusz becomes a stud. but the other 3 have to step up to reach 80. The offense will be fine with a healthy Roberts table setting and Nick batting 2 where he should be. Its all about the 3,4,5 starters.
Posted by: gibb | January 30, 2011 1:17 PM
@ smitty.
damn you and your 97!!! I know we're the kool-aid drinking-est bunch here, but even my 90 is fringe....but I guess you already calculated the Dead-line trade for King Felix. I probably should have too....
Posted by: paulie | January 30, 2011 1:17 PM
So all it' supposed to read
A lot or long time fans and families with little kiddies and really nothing in between.
A lot or long time fans and families. Really nothing in between. So if they w with little kiddies.
Darn Typos!
Posted by: The Squirrel | January 30, 2011 1:18 PM
I'm thinking .500, so let's see. We've had 82 and 85 already selected. I'll go 83, which is 5 better than Schmuck.
Posted by: trebort49 | January 30, 2011 1:23 PM
90.
Doesn't anyone remember '89??
Posted by: john from kensington | January 30, 2011 1:43 PM
89 wins. Why? Buck getting the most out of the starting rotation and an excellent bullpen.
Posted by: Mr. Keith | January 30, 2011 1:43 PM
I'll say 10 better than last year--78. And, yes Wayne, it does suck predicting losing optimistically. Saw a great shirt at the marathon earlier this month (printed on the back) "If you're reading this, it means I'm not last". Let's get one for every O's player and hope they take it to heart.
Posted by: JohnBoy | January 30, 2011 1:47 PM
94 Wins.
Posted by: King of the Donkeys | January 30, 2011 1:51 PM
72 without Guerro, 79 with Guerrero. I did a range prediction on Dan's board of a low of 69 without and a high of 82 with Guerrero.
I think Showalter will keep the Orioles in a lot of close, one run games since he will manage the pitching staff better than "fire trembley." Guerrero could make the difference in some of them because he can't be pitched around and doesn't strike out a lot.
Posted by: Gil | January 30, 2011 1:59 PM
91
Posted by: Tom S | January 30, 2011 2:00 PM
Hard to predict since O's are still looking to add pieces. So there are different numbers based on variables.
As is: 73... It's a tough division to turn around in and too many question marks would have to be answered (i.e. Roberts stays healthy and Hardy bounces back but Scott comes off career highs and Wieters doesn't progress).
With Guerrero: 76... He's worth 4 games if he plays like last year.
With Britton: 74... Just hopeful I s'pose
With a front line pitcher via trade: 81
With Albert Pujols (we can dream): 88
With Johan Santana (HA): 89
Trading all Oriole players for all Yankees: 94... But I wouldn't watch them or root for them
Posted by: Don Eminizer | January 30, 2011 2:02 PM
88
Posted by: ken | January 30, 2011 2:07 PM
80 wins. the city's hopes for a 500 season comes down to the final weekend and we fall just short.
Posted by: brandon | January 30, 2011 2:07 PM
somewhere between 40 and 110.
Posted by: Tim S. | January 30, 2011 2:07 PM
88
Posted by: ken | January 30, 2011 2:08 PM
I think the people predicting mid to upper 80s or 90 wins are fully vested in their optimism and expect everything to go great all year. That's possible, I guess, but I believe there are going to be ebbs and flows as well as an inopportune injury here and there.
Having said that, I think I'm pretty vested in my optimism too and even taking slumps and injuries into account I still think there is a chance for the team to be hovering around .500 by the end of September, so I'll say:
80 wins
Posted by: brstevens | January 30, 2011 2:11 PM
132
I was gonna say 134 with the signing of Green and rumor of Vladdy but I dont want to get greedy
Posted by: Poog Bowell | January 30, 2011 2:26 PM
84 wins. Seems like a popular number, but that's what I've been thinking for last week or so.
Posted by: John in Columbia | January 30, 2011 2:44 PM
86 is the most appropriate number for this team to win. As in they are 86'ing the losing streak. And they are due for a season in which more things go right for the team than wrong.
Posted by: O's fan | January 30, 2011 2:47 PM
What a joke....Optimism? Is it optimistic to look forward to not being among the absolute worst teams in baseball again? I can almost hear the chants "Were number 4 (In the AL East), We're number 4". Funny to see Vlad was the talk of the town this year after he shunned us in the past and the O's passed on him last year saying he was past his prime.
Fanfest was a true disappointment. But I've come to expect that from this organization. I got to pay $10 for the golden opportunity to pay for autograph cards to stand in long lines to get signatures from a bunch of guys who never won anything?
The Orioles should be offering fan friendly events for free......It wold be nice to see them actually appreciate the die hards that have been embarassed year in and year out for over a decade. Instead, they refuse to pay big money for top tiered free agents, raise ticket prices, and charge $10 to get in to FanFest so fans can pay $60 for used, cracked bats.
My God! What ever happened to the Oriole Way?
How bad can it be here when everyone is already aware this is not a playoff team and the excitement here is that we MIGHT actually win more than we lose for the first time in 14 years?
Posted by: Patrick | January 30, 2011 2:48 PM
96 wins.
Am I drinking the orange Kool-Aid? Maybe. Showalter took a team that had gone 32-73 (.305) and finished 34-23 (.596). Granted, the Os were healthier in those 57 games, but there is no chance health explains 2 more wins in 48 fewer games. That is unheard of...almost. In 1998 Showalter coached the D-backs to a 65-97 (.401) in their inaugural season. In 1999, the D-backs went 100-62 (.617). He found 35 more wins and a .216 jump in a few good veteran players added to the roster. Before additions he jumped .291 here. With the offseason acquisitions Showalter should be set to make another historic leap. 66-96 (.407) to 96-66 (.593) is only 30 wins and .186. That's nothing for a guy with Buck's super powers.
Posted by: chris | January 30, 2011 2:54 PM
74 without any more moves
80 if they get Vlad
The truth will set you free!
Posted by: Keith D. Rowe | January 30, 2011 3:13 PM
85
Posted by: bmoreman | January 30, 2011 3:52 PM
79
And I've always loved it on opening day, when all the newspapers print the standings with all zeroes. Baltimore is always on top!
Posted by: uncle goose | January 30, 2011 3:59 PM
"How bad can it be here when everyone is already aware this is not a playoff team."
Hey Patrick,
Hopefully your dinner will be better.
Everyone can't be aware of something that could possibly happen.
I can guarantee you that Buck and the entire team totally disagree with your negative outlook and prediction. You simply can't base your outlook on the last 13 years. Enjoy the sunshine get out a little more.
Posted by: smitty | January 30, 2011 4:09 PM
@ Paulie
Hey buddy, I was going to say 102 but that would be a little too optimistic even for me. I mean everything can't go right can it?
I'll stick with 97 and then if they win 79 i can claim i was right and it was a typo...
Posted by: smitty | January 30, 2011 4:14 PM
The way the O's finished up the last 60 games of the season, makes you think they have turned the corner and with their additions I think an over .500 record is very possible. Of course you can't expect the new additions to all have banner years, so I'm predicting a 85-77 record. Lets also not forget the Rays last to first place a few yrs back.
Posted by: Ken | January 30, 2011 4:28 PM
Why don't the O's Broadcast Fan Fest???
They own 2 Cable channels??
A roving Amber Theo-Harris, some Gary Thorn barbs with Buck, and Jim Palmer and Dempsey talk with all the players. (maybe it's the 40-some-odd behind the scenes production staff that's a bit more difficult).
Just seems obvious. But obviously not.
Posted by: paulie | January 30, 2011 4:36 PM
I say they will be lucky to hit 60 wins. I don't see enough improvement in pitching to win 60 games. We still need a starting picture. I hope that i am wrong, but I expect 58 wins for 2011.
Posted by: Tom S | January 30, 2011 4:42 PM
With this offense, the O's should be competitive in most games, with enough decent starting pitching and a legit bullpen to clean up after the 5 2/3 inning 120 pitch outings. The question will be towards mid-season, when the bullpen starts to tire and the O's are faced with some inevitable injuries, will they reload? With no legit prospects to trade it may be hard. I am predicting a strong first half, say 48-39 at the break, with the traditional August swoon and a late season recovery for.....78 wins. (if we do reload with trade deadline players, the # is 84).
Posted by: please | January 30, 2011 5:17 PM
88 It fees like it should be a good year to be an Os fan.
Posted by: Anonymous | January 30, 2011 5:22 PM
Patrick,
Great post sir..... Careful though, truth and honesty will get you pummeled around here.
To the smitty's of the blog...... Thank goodness for posters like you....
... for if it weren't for you guys, posters like us wouldn't look so brilliant season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season.......
...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I'm not even sure this is the real Wayne -- and I can usually tell -- but the idea that you look "brilliant" for saying the Orioles have been a bad team the past many years is the ultimate example of setting the bar too low.
Posted by: wayne | January 30, 2011 5:50 PM
79
If Vlad comes on board and the team gets Duchscherer (and he returns to 2008 form), then I'd up that to 87 and a close third place in the AL East.
Posted by: Hopeless Fan | January 30, 2011 5:55 PM
93. I think the O's start fast and carry that momentum through the early part of the season. The young pitchers and position players love their first taste of success in the big leagues and catch fire. The national media loves the new AL East story line and the nation catches on. We fight for a wild card berth down to the last week of the season, narrowly missing out. The season is a success for three reasons: 1) the fan base is excited for the 2012 season 2) big name free agents begin to take us seriously and 3) the young players start to shake that losing mentality and start to expect to win.
Posted by: JOW | January 30, 2011 5:55 PM
... for if it weren't for you guys, posters like us wouldn't look so brilliant season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season after season.......
Wayne rantafter rantafter rantafter...
pssst....surfer Dude....yeah you....troll boy....hey dude....the blogs only been around for three years..... so you are so wrong it's pathetic... nobody around here gave any predictions on here for 98 and 99 and 00 and 01 and 02 and 03 and 04 and 05 because Pete's blog didn't exist.....
but you are looking forward to this massively improved team... right?? ....right? Oh sure it was pathetic in 2007-2010 but look at the roster now....you gotta be loving this huh?cause you are first and foremost a big O's fan...... right?? oh.....
hey, did you get a chance to really ask some hard hitting questions at fanfest to Andy about why the minors are so bereft (look it up) of talent? ....oh... next year again?...oh I see...
keep it up though you only have a few months left to bash before you go to another blog and draw away attention to yourself...
Go Wedge...(Andy's first choice)!!!
Posted by: smitty | January 30, 2011 6:24 PM
77-85
Posted by: smitty shamrock | January 30, 2011 7:04 PM
I'm going to say between 78 and 86. There's just no accounting for luck when predicting win totals. I think the O's have a chance at the upper-end of the range because the Yankees and Jays, IMO, are much weaker going into the 2011 season than people generally seem to believe, and I think the Sox/Rays will finish 1-2 in the division (the Rays still have a ton of talent, even if much of it is unproven). If things break really well for the O's (few serious injuries, rebound seasons, etc.), 3rd place and a well-above .500 season isn't out of the question.
Posted by: Grant | January 30, 2011 7:10 PM
Patrick,
Great post, right on the mark. For those folks estimating greater than 75-80 wins I remind you all of Einsteins observation that people who continue to do the same thing over and over and expecting different results are commonly called insane! Nuff said!
The truth will set you free!
Posted by: Keith D. Rowe | January 30, 2011 7:12 PM
How many wins ? who the hell really knows
Are you counting postseason ?
Posted by: onceawarrior | January 30, 2011 7:15 PM
you mean we aren't counting spring training?.....oh, I guess 97's kind of high then....
Posted by: smitty | January 30, 2011 7:17 PM
Was the ticket price issue addressed? I assume no one like a PR director or team President (oh, wait, they don't have one) was there.
Posted by: joefoss | January 30, 2011 9:24 PM
Pete my friend,
Why such an angry response? I'm sorry that I reminded people that you said the EXACT same thing last pre-season...
I'm sorry I reminded people that your prediction was practically identical, complete with the 'if everyone stays healthy they may get into the 80s'.
All I'm saying is that the SAME posters come on here year after year.... and year after year, they're incredibly wrong....
THEN
They come on the following season talking about how the team has improved, or that there's reason for HOPE (see smitty)...
Listen, I get it...... This is your gig and as part of your gig, you need to feed the optimism. And that you're able to do so while giving a projecting of 78 wins is well..... kind of amazing.
You see folks, 78 wins in MLB is TERRIBLE. It's UGLY..... It's remarkably BAD. But in Baltimore, it's a HOPEFUL number...
YIPEEEEEEE. 78 wins, 78 wins, 78 wins, 78 wins.
You want my prediction Pete? Ok, here goes... but don't be shocked. I'm going with
79
Yep, even one better than yours. And I'm saying 79 because I believe Buck can squeeze out a few more W's than usual.
That said though Pete.... 79 wins STINKS and would once again represent one of the worst teams in MLB.
Enjoy ST Peter. Enjoy yuking up to AM when you and your friends kiss the ring in his new digs.
Enjoy the weather and golf, cause there sure isn't much to cover when writing about the beginnings of yet another losing season.
...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: If I were you, my friend, I'd be the last guy going back and looking stuff up. I probably did say that and the Orioles did not stay healthy, so the same thing applies again. I also said for weeks that the Orioles would hire Buck Showalter, something you vociferously denied could ever happen under Andy MacPhail. I could go on and on, but what's the point. You're inside your own fishbowl, but if you're comfortable there, who am I to complain.
Posted by: wayne | January 30, 2011 10:51 PM
"Enjoy yuking up to AM when you and your friends kiss the ring "
uh that would be "rings" dude....plural....
you forgot the s. I'm sure it wasn't intentional.
We just signed the dutch dude....could be three rings soon Wayne...Won't that be cool? That will be three times as many as Ozzie has.
You do love this years O's team don't you???
Of course you do
Posted by: smitty | January 30, 2011 11:16 PM
79 wins since I think anywhere from 79 to 83 is likely. It will be 86 wins if they sign Guerrero just because the players want him and it will be a vote of confidence from ownership unlike 2005.
Posted by: Gary in the Loo | January 31, 2011 1:35 AM
77
Posted by: A Fan | January 31, 2011 1:44 AM
70. That would almost be a winning season given the past few years
Posted by: Sad Bird | January 31, 2011 2:53 AM
I'm not going to make my final prediction because I don't think it should be due yet. I said 73 earlier but the roster has changed since then. It might -- and might I add, I hope it does -- change again.
The team has addressed all of its needs for 2011, except one. Depth. That glaring omission will be the Achilles Heal to The Promise Land.
I might add 82 wins are The Promise Land. Playoffs are Dream Land. So far.
And I specifically said 2011 when it came to addressing needs. There are a lot of one-year signings that are being counted on. We can if, if, if away at predicting 85 or more wins but even if all of those if's come true, 2012 will look a lot different -- again -- so this process will be a lot the same -- again.
Good response, Peter, by the way. There was no anger detected by this Neutral.
Posted by: waspman | January 31, 2011 3:45 AM
85.
The April schedule is brutal. If the Birds can play close to .500 ball the first month, they will be in good position to rack up some wins in May and June.
Posted by: SmittyATL | January 31, 2011 6:51 AM
The O's play in the AL East. If the O's win total gets into the 80's, you can pop the champagne.
77 games sounds about right.
Posted by: Him | January 31, 2011 8:44 AM
LET'S ALL GIVE AM A STANDING OVATION.... HE DID IT AGAIN....
3 CHEERS for the signing of Duch...
1 for his elbow surgery.....
1 for his hip surgery.....
and 1 for his clinical depression......
HIP HIP.....
HIP HIP....
HIP HIP....
AM has done it again... Another brilliant signing....
Posted by: wayne | January 31, 2011 9:23 AM
Wow Wayne,
That was brutal! Very, very funny - but brutal. I have to admit, I don't get this signing. So what if his stats have been good when he has pitched. Problem is, the guy never pitches. Another low risk, very cheap, some reward type of player I suppose. Sure says something about what they think of Tillman. Still a funny post though wayne.
Posted by: chris | January 31, 2011 9:42 AM
Sure wish Wayne would just go away....he kinda takes the fun out of it. Maybe he should start his own blog and leave us fans alone.
Pete....I'll predict 83-79, good for 2nd in the East. BoSox take it in a runaway, but I think we'll finish ahead of the Yanks, Rays and Jays.
Wishful thinking? Probably....but that's what February is for.
THIS IS BIRDLAND! ORIOLES MAGIC! THE BUCK STOPS HERE!
Posted by: Matt | January 31, 2011 10:54 AM
Sure wish Wayne would just go away....he kinda takes the fun out of it. Maybe he should start his own blog and leave us fans alone.
Pete....I'll predict 83-79, good for 2nd in the East. BoSox take it in a runaway, but I think we'll finish ahead of the Yanks, Rays and Jays.
Wishful thinking? Probably....but that's what February is for.
THIS IS BIRDLAND! ORIOLES MAGIC! THE BUCK STOPS HERE!
Posted by: Matt | January 31, 2011 10:55 AM
79
Posted by: me | January 31, 2011 11:15 AM
Justin Duchscherer = Rich Hill.
...and still, I'm a skeptic about Mark Reynolds. I think Luke will out pace Mark offensively. The only thing that makes me even the slightest bit excited about Reynolds is the defense. IF his defense is as advertised (above average and getting better) than I'll swallow the 200+K's. But that is a BIG IF.
Luke Scott will have a better Offensive year than Mark Reynolds....any takers??
But I'm supper excited about Derrik Lee and Kevin Gregg. Those were brilliant moves.
Justin Duchscherer over Kevin Millwood...bananas. Totally f'ed.
Posted by: paulie | January 31, 2011 11:39 AM
I'm not so concerned about a person who has had his/her clinical depression addressed. I'm more concerned with the thousands, prehaps millions who suffer from it but don't.
The hip surgery, although more recent than the elbow surgery, is not so much of a concern either. If he passed the Oriole physical -- known as being more persnickety than most -- I have reduced concerns.
I do have concerns with the durability of Duchscherer. Until 2008, he was primarily a reliever (197 games, five starts). He did have 50-plus appearances in three of those years, the last being 2006.
He pitched 141 2/3 innings in 2008 -- his last full year and his first year as a full-time starter. The total is a little low for my liking. At the same time, he did average 6.44 innings per start -- better than any of the other top five starters on Oakland's team that year (they had 13 different starters). The 6.44 inning per start also is 0.29 better than Millwood, 0.37 better than Bergesen, 0.87 better than Arrieta, 0.95 better than Matusz, and 1.55 better than Tillman. Only Guthrie on last year's O's had more innings per start (6.54).
Another little quirky stat is he has never had a losing season. That's a fairly remarkable feat for someone who spent more years as a reliever than starter at the major league level. His 10-8 season of 2008 was on an Athletic team that finished 11 games below .500.
His signing is a good move. It's not a top of the rotation difference maker but upside clearly outweighs downside. His contributions to the 2011 Orioles will be tied to his health, so I will reserve tweaking my prediction until I see some spring training results. Long term, he may actually be someone who stays after one year even if he has a good comeback year.
Posted by: waspman | January 31, 2011 11:46 AM
83-79
I'd like to start a "Ban wayne from the blog campaign"
He makes my head hurt.
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Pete's reply: He makes my head hurt, too, but you're going to have to put up with him. Once in awhile, between the bursts of anti-Andy venom, he makes a good point, and I don't ban anyone who behaves in an honorable manner, whether they agree with me or not. I just take an Advil after reading his posts.
Posted by: Iceman | January 31, 2011 11:51 AM
92 The Orioles will finally be competetive for the entire seaason. Buck shows the way, the starters are backed up by an effective bullpen, defense improves, offense does enough to keep us in games. With the exception of Boston, AL East not as dominant.
Posted by: john | January 31, 2011 12:01 PM
Matt,
THANK YOU for helping to make my point.
83 wins is 'wishful thinking'? I thought AM was bringing this team close to a 500 record 3 years ago...... And here it is, with AM into his 4th year and 83 is 'wishful thinking'...as if that's a positive thing? Perhaps for you it is....
Just another sign as to how LOW the bar is constantly set in ORIOLE MAGIC land.
iceman,
I agree, but let me ask you. Why would you ban someone who is only and always speaking the truth based on nothing but facts?
But let me know where the ban wayne petition will be. I'll sign up...
waspan,
Seriously? You actually spun the signing of Duch as being positive? Why is it that every stiff AM signs, posters like you like to categorize such as 'upside'.
Your the same guy who said as much about players like Hill, Eaton, Millwood, Atkins, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc.
You take a player who had a horrific previous season, or one who is coming off severe surgery and say 'I like this signing because of the UPSIDE'.
AM has fans like you eating right out of the palm of his hand.
Hip Surgery --- HIP HIP
Elbow Surgery --- HIP HIP
Clinical Depression - HIP HIP
HOOOOORRRRAAAAAYYYYYYY
Posted by: wayne | January 31, 2011 12:50 PM
84
Nowhere near as many holes as they had last year. I'd even venture to say that there are no glaring holes. Signing Duchscherer gives them some starting pitching depth. ...and adding Vlad would give them depth on the bench....mainly in the outfield. They can plug Pie in as needed. I see the O's surprising people. That is of course if they can stay healthy.
Posted by: Jeff Mc | January 31, 2011 1:11 PM
Wayne: "I agree, but let me ask you. Why would you ban someone who is only and always speaking the truth based on nothing but facts?
Do I need to repost your comment last year that the O's would NEVER hire Buck? Or can you dig that up? Let's not forget the one where you said Seattle fans loved trading Adam Jones and loved that they had Franklin Gutierrez instead. I remember you backpeddling on that one too.
Fact: You state the obvious.
Fact: You've been wrong multiple times, and haven't stated anything truthful that hasn't already be said or known.
Opinion: You love to view yourself as some sort of authority, when really you're not.
Posted by: Anonymous | January 31, 2011 1:22 PM
86
Posted by: foxaz | January 31, 2011 1:30 PM
As a Boston fan who lives in Baltimore, it's fascinating how almost every poster last season was lobbying for AGon. But when he finally ended up with the Sox, you don't see anything ever posted.
It's like Baltimore fans just always give in to the fact that you'll sign nothing but players that no other teams want.
You all say it's tough to be competitive in the AL East. I agree with you - it is. Markets like Boston and NY simply have more dollars to spend. But what I never hear is how you guys get beat up by teams in the other divisions as well. In other words, the AL East argument only comes into play when your team could become competitive in another division.
Look at the Detroit payroll compared to yours. You're not even competitive with Detroit. And how did you guys do with the AL East teams with low payrolls? How'd you do against Toronto? How about Tampa?
You consistently roll over and accept the players you keep getting. None of your acquisitions are ever mentioned on Sportscenter, accept for a simple blurb announcing where a player may be headed. Like the Pirates of the National League, fans across the country look at the Orioles as a complete joke.
The good news for Beantowners like me is, I get great seats every time the boys come to town. And as a Bonus, I'm always assured that I'll be surrounded by fans wearing nothing but Red Sox gear.
It's going to be a good year. Sorry you didn't get Agon. Too bad you're not sorry as well.
Posted by: Beaner | January 31, 2011 1:33 PM
With the Yankees rotation a mess and the Rays poised for a down year, I can see the Orioles winning 84 if they can stay healthy
Posted by: Kyle | January 31, 2011 1:35 PM
Printing this out and can't wait to see how the predictions turn out. A lot of blind optimism out there.
Posted by: whatareyouthinking? | January 31, 2011 1:57 PM
Does anyone still watch Sportscenter?
Posted by: jim66 | January 31, 2011 2:30 PM
75 wins. Big deal.
As for the signing of Duchscherer, it's garbage in, garbage out. What did AM sign him for? $800,000 with incentives? We went into the offseason in need of a starter and this is it. If Duchscherer can make HALF his starts I'd be impressed.
This team, while flawed, still lacks much needed depth. It's ridiculous that AM would settle on a pitcher that has only pitched 5 games in the past 2 years. If Duchscherer even makes it out of spring training, I'd be shocked if he stays healthy through May.
Arrieta is the projected 4th starter, but we don't even know how good or bad he'll do or if he'll end up in Norfolk again. Then, as usual, we'll have our revolving door of minor leaguers coming onto the team who struggle at staying consistent even at Norfolk.
Notice we use the word "if" a lot....
Nice job staying on the cheap-side, MacPhail. I can't wait till Selig retires.
Posted by: dave in glen burnie | January 31, 2011 3:38 PM
Also, has anyone else noticed that when a player is worth more than $6 million, all of a sudden it's out of the O's price range? Or when they make a move at a star player, they balk with a contract that's $3 million or more LESS then the projected annual price range?
It's like the franchise entered 1996 and never left.
And what kills me is that Izturis is getting paid $1.5 million in '11, but they offer Guerrero $3-5 million, which is well below his asking price.....does anyone else see this as jacked up? I don't care how good Izturis' defense is, it's not going to make up for Guerrero's bat. They basically slapped him in the face with that lowball offer.
See, this is why other teams and cities see the Orioles as irrelevant. It's also why other players don't like dealing with them. The Orioles are like a sleeping giant in a deep coma.
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Pete's reply: I'd go $5 million with Guerrero, but his asking price was $16 million for two and nobody was ever going to give him that. The Orioles only want him if he's a bargain. Apparently, they are not alone in that regard. I'd like to have the guy, but he's going to fill a slot you already have filled with Luke Scott, so you're not going to break the bank for him. This time, it's really not about being cheap, or everybody else in baseball apparently is even cheaper.
Posted by: dave in glen burnie | January 31, 2011 3:56 PM
In other words dave... nothing ever changes. Major props though dave.... your 'garbage in, garbage out' line is the best description I've seen yet.
And hey anonymous,
Go look it up my friend. I said Buck would never be here if AM had anything to do with it... which he didn't. Buck being here was all PA. AM couldn't even get this one right as Buck knows AM didn't want him.
BREAKING NEWS:
O's sign Hendrickson to a minor league deal. Who doesn't believe this stiff will come North with the club?
I mean you can't make this stuff up.
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Pete's reply: Wayne, really buddy, you need to get a life. How many times can you say the same thing. If the Orioles had signed Cliff Lee, you would still be banging the same drum. We get it. You hate Andy MacPhail. We all figured that out about a year ago or more. If that's all you've got, you need to get another hobby. I hope this doesn't hurt your feelings. I'm not angry at you. But you're not smarter or more insightful than anybody else. What you're doing is the easiest, least insightful thing you could possible do in this situation. If you keep predicting the past, you've got an excellent chance to be right.
Posted by: wayne | January 31, 2011 3:58 PM
Some interesting baseball news for all those fans of Baltimore and Babe Ruth. Check this out:
The Babe Ruth Birthplace Foundation is partnering with Mercy Medical Center this Sunday, Feb. 6 to commemorate the birth of Babe Ruth…who was born in Baltimore on February 6, 1895.
From 10 a.m.–2 p.m., people will be able to hold an actual bat that Babe used in 1927 when he set the single-season HR record. This item is never on public display and normally kept in the Museum’s private archives.
But on Sunday, people can hold this piece of sports history and have their picture taken for a donation of $10.
Proceeds support Mercy's Neonatal Intensive Care Unit in their efforts to care for over 400 babies each year. Portions will also benefit the Babe Ruth Birthplace Foundation.
The event will be located on the Mezzanine Level in the Bunting Center Lobby of Mercy’s new hospital at 345 St. Paul Place. Parking is available in the Bunting Garage, located off of Pleasant Street.
Posted by: maxmorf | January 31, 2011 4:38 PM
I wouldn't necessarily think that wayne was writing as Beaner "accept" for his misuse of the word "accept" mid-way through.
Posted by: Anonymous | January 31, 2011 5:06 PM
Wayne is the "poster" child for a an angry and depressed human being. Hopefully, if employed, he works from home. I can't imagine the pain and suffering he would bring to the unfortunate souls that would have to work with him. My sympathy to his family.
Posted by: Frederick09 | January 31, 2011 5:15 PM
87 games
The AL East is a lot weaker this year outside of Boston.
1. Toronto lost Vernon Wells, Shaun Marcum, John Buck, Lyle Overbay, Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg
2. Tampa Bay lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett
3. New York Yankees lost Lance Berkman, Javier Vazquez and Andy Pettitte. They are just old too.
Posted by: Jason in Baltimore | January 31, 2011 5:55 PM
If they can get out of the gate in good shape and stay relatively healthy, I believe they could win 84 games (so 84 is my number.) A bad start or bad luck w/player health, they could easily end up w/70-75 wins.
Posted by: cliffdweller | January 31, 2011 6:01 PM
88 wins. Maybe more with Vlads.
Hope we get him soon so we can get in the Spring Training mentality, with all the attendant optimism.
Posted by: Harold | January 31, 2011 6:32 PM
"they offer Guerrero $3-5 million, which is well below his asking price."
Dave in GB
Yeah teams are really beating down his door. Perhaps Andy should offer a 2 year 15 million huh Dave?
Did you even watch the last two months when we had the best record in baseball?
Here's a newsflash. Arietta may or may not turn out good, but him and the others got much needed experience.
It's called REBUILDING. And you will enjoy the fruits of it this year.
Go O's! Go Andy!
Go Wedge!! (not Andy's first choice, in fact now it's been reported that Andy didn't want him at all.) Wow, good we have some on the spot reporters like ol W to keep things straight
Posted by: smitty | January 31, 2011 6:59 PM
oops typo above
I secretly wanted Wedge all along also....
Posted by: smitty | January 31, 2011 7:02 PM
I have to admit I was wrong again wayne. I had you pegged as being from Jersey and a New York fan, but now I see you admit you are from Boston that clears that up.
I think we will stick it to you guys again this year.
Posted by: smitty | January 31, 2011 7:08 PM
Well accept for using accept wrong, most of the points wayne makes as Beaner are the same tired junk he always posts (vs. other divisions, Detroit payroll).
"I never post under other names, just good ole wayne".
Ok.
Posted by: good ole liar | January 31, 2011 7:40 PM
73 wins. If they are above .500 after the All-Star break I'll be surprised. I love the O's, but at this point I have to see before I believe. Call it 12 years of heart-break.
Posted by: Jim | January 31, 2011 8:15 PM
Peter- A jouralisitic request. Please do some report on the estimated revenue MASN generates.
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Pete's reply: I might need help from WikiLeaks on that one. It's a private enterprise and is not required to reveal its profit and loss statement. I would guess, however, that the revenues from cable TV are substantial and would support greater spending.
Posted by: joefoss | January 31, 2011 8:32 PM
I think the Orioles will win all 162 Regular season games!
Kevin Gregg will set a new world record with a 162 saves!
And Mark Reynold will only strike out once all year long!
The Orioles will sweep all Playoff Games as well as the World Series!
Angelos will retire to his Horses and the Oriole Faithful will have their 1st Parade since 1983!
Woo Hoo!
Posted by: Anonymous | January 31, 2011 8:33 PM
Joe Foss,
Wouldn't sleeping pills do the trick just as well?
Posted by: smitty | January 31, 2011 8:45 PM
joefoss,
What does it matter what the MASN revenue is? I gather you're going to make some argument that there is more money that can be spent. There is. Always has been.
Who was the last team to outspend the Yankees...yeap, the O's...so so long ago...
But, if memory serves correctly, last year the Sun posted something about the est. value of the O's. 1 Billion. 700 million for MASN, and the change for the Organization. If memory serves...
Posted by: paulie | January 31, 2011 9:19 PM
Sorry Wayne, that was me earlier, didn't mean to be anonymous.
But again, let's play Fact Checker!
"In the meantime, AM will get his manager, and it'll be another Yes Man. Valentine and Showalter are 100% for show. That will NEVER happen under AM's watch, not at this point in his career. No, it'll absolutely be someone like Wedge. Someone who is desperate for a job. Someone who will act however the club wants them to act."
-Wayne, June 22 2010
"I said Buck would never be here if AM had anything to do with it."
-Wayne, January 31 2011
How can you proclaim the truth when you're caught lying? Repeatedly. Just admit it, face your sentence, and move on.
Posted by: PeteyPablo | January 31, 2011 10:36 PM
"waspan," - wayne
It's waspman. I usually don't correct typos but your inattention to detail meets your inattention to facts.
"Seriously? You actually spun the signing of Duch as being positive? Why is it that every stiff AM signs, posters like you like to categorize such as 'upside'." - wayne
The Orioles need more pitching depth. Signing Duchscherer has no downside. Pretty simple, really.
Every stiff? Not me. Not if you have paid even a morsel of attention. My prediction is 73 wins, although it is subject to change prior to Opening Day.
Posters like me? There are no posters like me. There may be a few who like me. I don't know. I post when I have something unique to say. Sometimes I bash. Sometimes I compliment. Usually, I have so facts or stats to trot out. But there is no one like me.
Upside? That is real concern. If you don't see the upside, that's fine. I'm not trying to convince you of anything. I don't see a downside with this signing taking it on its own merit. The worst thing that can happen is he isn't ready to come back, and the Orioles will still have the same rotation.
"Your the same guy who said as much about players like Hill, Eaton, Millwood, Atkins, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc." - wayne
You are wrong. I wrote dozens of times against the 37 arms and something will work theory that offseason. I predicted a win total so low, Peter Schmuck offered to buy me lunch if it came true. I was a flukey 6-2 start and an equally flukey 4-0 finish from being right, too.
Atkins? Find one post of mine anywhere at any time that even gave him a benefit of the doubt.
Millwood? Yes, I thought his signing was appropriate for when the signing happened. My only problem with Millwood was he should have been traded while he was going well despite being winless and it was obvious the Orioles were headed nowhere. Of course, that, too, wasn't Millwood's fault but I belly-ached about MacPhail about that.
Keep in mind I also wanted the Orioles to make a bid on top of the rotation guys, too. Even if they didn't sign, I wanted the genuine effort. That doesn't mean I can't evaluate lower moves as being a plus or a minus. And whether you're capable of seeing or just want spew venom 24-7, there are both plusses and minuses.
I don't like the one-way approach this organization is going, nor do I like the band-aid bridges to nowhere that doesn't jive with their own philosophy. Nevertheless, I will compliment moves I do agree with.
If you're going to make the effort to engage me, wayne, at least get your facts straight. All the etc's in the world won't cover up the fact that you went beyond disagreeing with me; you were wrong. Dead wrong. And it's becoming habitual. And pathetic.
Posted by: waspman | February 1, 2011 3:40 AM
I think that their Pythagorean win total will be 82, so that the actual win total will go anywhere from about 78 to 86.
Since none of us are insiders, we don't know the obstacles to things that could of been done and weren't. But when I see what was done, I think that the Orioles came near to maxing out their potential for what could have reasonably been done this off-season.
Before the team can aquire the next level of free agents, they have to increase the perception that they can compete within the division. Thus they do have to be "good" before they can be "great". The types of players they aquired with the types of contracts they possess are the right types for this in-between stage.
Most of the Orioles new players are not good enough for "great", but hopefully they are good enough for "good", and since there is no long term obligation to these players, the team will be free to get the players who can get them to the 90 win plus level.
As a regular reader of this blog, and most of the comments, I tire to read reflexive negativity that seems disconnected from an underlying philosophy of organizational development or specific and reasonable recommendations for how to lift this team from the organizational crisis AM inherited when he took over. I think your former vice-president and fellow Marylander described such posters with his alliterative phrase: "Nattering nabobs of negativism".
Posted by: European Prof | February 1, 2011 12:09 PM
BOOYAH!
Nice response Pete @ Wayne.
LMAO!
Bullseye!6. Baltimore Orioles | Players in Top 100: 4
Another team helped immensely by smart trades (see: Jones, Adam), the Orioles are only going to get better as another wave of talent appears to be on the way. Brian Matusz looks ready to stick in the big-league rotation, and others like Jake Arrieta are knocking on the door.
kkWayne also likes to wine that the farm system still blows too...well, check what t
66. Baltimore Orioles | Players in Top 100: 4
Another team helped immensely by smart trades (see: Jones, Adam), the Orioles are only going to get better as another wave of talent appears to be on the way. Brian Matusz looks ready to stick in the big-league rotation, and others like Jake Arrieta are knocking on the door.. Baltimore Orioles | Players in Top 100: 4
Another team helped immensely by smart trades (see: Jones, Adam), the Orioles are only going to get better as another wave of talent appears to be on the way. Brian Matusz looks ready to stick in the big-league rotation, and others like Jake Arrieta are knocking on the door.
Posted by: Sizemo | February 1, 2011 2:20 PM
Pete,
When I think of Guerrero, I keep on thinking Izturis' contract of $1.5 million and wonder how the offer to Guerrero within the same ballpark. I understand that both are one dimensional players in one being a defensive utility player and the other a DH, but if Guerrero's market value is worth $3-5 million, then Izturis' value should be no more than $800,000. Like I said, I don't think Izturis' defense will ever make up for Guerrero's offense - unless he's Ozzie Smith.
Waspman,
I'd have no problem with the signing of Duchscherer if it was to add depth. But AM signed him when we are in need of a starter that will actually finish the season and/or offer more than 15 starts. The rotation is in need of some kind of stability, and a signing like this just doesn't cut it. Assuming that Tillman and Britton are sent to Norfolk at the beginning of the season, outside of those 2 pitchers, the team isn't left with many options.
Also keep in mind that Duchscherer wasn't even breaking the mid-80's during his bullpen sessions, which to me is alarming. From what I've read, he has a 3-1 SO/BB ratio, which is great, but he also has barely pitched in the past 2 years. I don't think his fastball ever broke 90mph on a regular basis at any point in his career and maybe he wasn't giving his all during his sessions (which to me would be stupid being that he's trying out for other teams), but to depend on him as the 5th starter, when even making it out of ST is a question mark, isn't a smart move at all.
Posted by: dave in glen burnie | February 1, 2011 2:21 PM
Apologies, I think my internet connection got confused with one in Egypt. I was trying to post a quote from Fanhouse that ranks the O's farm system as 6th out of 30!
Loads of a great arms seasoning and position players right behind them.
Good times ahead...ALL ABOARD!
Posted by: Sizemo | February 1, 2011 3:38 PM
Pete, I'll go on the side of 'guarded' optimistism after last season's Earl Weaver 60% W-L finish (sorry Bucky, I'm a fan from the EW dynasty days). But even if the Orioles did win 85-90 games as some posters predict, do you honestly think these wins will get them 4th place or better?
Why is sign-in for today's column different from yesterday's column that I had log-into the sun to comment?
Posted by: CNC Orioles Fan | February 1, 2011 6:21 PM
dave in glen burnie, I totally agree with you. The Orioles need innings-pitched depth -- and the closer to the top of the rotation, the better. Duchscherer doesn't provide that unless it is a nice surprise.
As far as velocity is concerned, I'm not that worried about mid-80's in a January workout. I'm more optimistic about his physical health given how the Orioles scrutinize that element almost to a fault. If he can throw 90 by mid-March, he may be a nice surprise. He has proven he knows how to pitch.
I'm not so optimistic the Orioles will find an innings eater worthy of a top-three spot in the rotation. That is why I am not head over heals yet about predicting 82 or more wins.
I didn't put in the effort to look up wayne's past posts, but I applaud PeteyPablo for doing so. There is never anything wrong with the bright light of truth.
CNC Orioles Fan, if the Orioles win 85 or more games, it will mean 4th place or better. That is because some of those extra wins will be against NYY, BOS, TB and TOR. None of these teams are without issues, albeit their issues are differently defined than ours. I'd be shocked if 85 wins in 2011 didn't mean 3rd place, and 90: 2nd place. The rest of the AL isn't a collective doormat.
I just don't see 85 wins as anything more than a longshot possibility. I'd love to be wrong.
Posted by: waspman | February 2, 2011 9:31 AM