Hey Pete,

I just saw you on the Prime 9 'Greatest Comebacks' episode on MLB Network.

You sure are a sexy beast.

Hey Pete,
I just saw people kissing your sack as usual, and was wondering when you are going to start being on the fore front of O's news? I am tired of reading your less than novel opinions, and would really like for you to give us some news. Keep humping away at what everyone else reports since you don't have any sources for the information on your own!

...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I'm not the O's reporter, Brett. We break news on Orioles Insider, and if I get any, I give it to the guys over there. That's the way we do things. But thanks for not having a clue.

Wayne is Nestor, that is the truth. Only he can hate Andy MacPhail this much. Wayne(Nestor) also is not an Orioles fan, just likes to stir up trouble.

Wayne is Nestor, that is the truth. Only he can hate Andy MacPhail this much. Wayne(Nestor) also is not an Orioles fan, just likes to stir up trouble. Andy may have wanted Wedge first, but instead brought in Buck. Andy brought in Buck, no one else did. Get over it Nestor.

I have already stated earlier the Duchscherer signing has much more upside than downside. In fact after writing that, I was wondering to myself what downside is there.

So, I totally agree viewing this move in its present context is a good one. I may even "up" my win prediction later because of it.

However, the same could -- and should -- be said about Cliff Lee. And/Or a few other top-tier free agents over the past few offseasons. Unless any one of these players say up front, "Baltimore? Heck, no," I say if it is a good fit, go for it.

It could very well be the top-tier free agents I covet wouldn't necessarily have been the same ones a front office would covet. But don't tell me none of them were acceptable.

It could also very well be none of the free agents I preferred would have signed anyway. Fine. Make the effort. A genuine effort. It would still signal a seriousness to future considerations including when it comes time to keep your own players.

The irony to all of these (and perhaps more) one-year signings is that it has nothing to do with "building for the future." The only player who might stick around for 2012 if he has a good 2011 is Duchscherer. The others aren't even a bridge because triple-A doesn't have much waiting in the wings in many positions.

So as long as the they-wouldn't-come-here-anyway excuse is trotted out in any guise, I'm going to always retort, "Prove it." Just as the Duchscherer signing has little downside, so would have a legitimate offer to Lee.

At some point, the Orioles will have to make a move that poses a risk. Otherwise, our 1983 will be chanted as derisively as Cub fans hear 1908. And if you think their fans are lovable losers, ask Bartman. If you can find him.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Schmuck is most often used in American English as a pejorative or insult, meaning an obnoxious, contemptible person; one who is stupid, foolish, or detestable. The word is also used by many Jewish people across Europe with similar pejorative meanings.

How fitting...

Schmucker,
This move would be a whole lot better if Freddy Garcia and his 12 wins would be part of the rotation. Instead of paying out that 5 Million that the Yanks paid, we are signing another "Rich Hill". Yes, there is an upside though the guy hasn't pitched in essentially 3 years, but the likelyhood of any tangible contribution isn't there. This is a huge risk to take with such a green rotation and we know that Arrietta and Tillman are not (and may never be) ready.

@ Frank,

What planet are you from? Freddy Garcia and 12 wins? Guaranteed? Since when? Why don't you ask the Sillies if they had a chance to do it all over again, would they trade for him? I doubt they would say yes! As for me I wonder if the O's are trying to work a trade for more SP's. I guess I kinda of doubt it since management said they were looking for one more SP and they got one in "The Duke". And they wanted a "Loogy" and now they got Mark Hendrickson back, oh how exciting! But to say they needed Freddy Garcia, that is laughable!

I'm ambivalent. You make a good case for signing Dutch and I see they've brought back Hendrickson as well. However, I think there is also something to be said for running the young guys out there, and to mix a metaphor, let them be baptized in fire and either sink or swim. If we're a young, growing team, why are signing guys over 30 to take innings (or at bats) away from the developing players? It's not like we're exspecting to contend for the division.

Wayne is Nestor, that is the truth. Only he can hate Andy MacPhail this much. Wayne(Nestor) also is not an Orioles fan, just likes to stir up trouble. Andy may have wanted Wedge first, but instead brought in Buck. Andy brought in Buck, no one else did. Get over it Nestor.

Posted by: RichD | February 1, 2011 2:24 AM
__________________________

Hey Rich, who's Nestor? Is he the guy who "works" or use to "work" at a 5 watt radio station that no one other than his relatives listen to? Isn't he the guy who bleached his hair a few years back in an effort to attract females? Didn't work I hear since he has the personality of a whiny slug.

Quick Question,

This is a blog. A place for Pete to state an opinion. These entries aren't "news reports". Peter writes blog entries and columns to spur discussion, not for breaking news. Occasionally a blog entry will be a news related item, but not all the time. I never understood the personal attacks, if you don't like what this column represents why don't you find some articles dedicated to Oriole news. Apparently you have a real hard time distinguishing the difference between news/opinion. Maybe you could become a reporter yourself? You know, break the story first.

We needed to sign a starter to take some of the pressure off the younger guys and to give a veteran presence to them as well. Chris Young would have made more sense. John Maine. Or as someone else posted, Freddy Garcia along with Duchsherer. But Duchs on his own, as the only SP we sign, is what the concern is. He's never thrown more than 140 in a year. There's no way the O's can think he'll really contribute this year, so they must be OK with Guthrie, Matusz, Bergeson, Arrieta, and Tillman as our 5 starters. And that's why this signing isn't helpful.

@ PeteyPablo

He's never thrown more than 140 in a year. There's no way the O's can think he'll really contribute this year?

How can you say that, they signed him "The Duke" to a one year deal. If they really felt that way, why would they sign him at all if that's the case?

Unless "The Duke" is a "Socialist", then the Orioles were right to give him "Free" Money. hehehehe. Thankfully, I don't think "The Duke" is a socialist!

The Orioles should be looking at Edinson Volquez or someone from the White Sox! I think it would make the O's fans happy!

their is cheap and then their is cheap. cutting the corners off the corners just doesn't work.i am not agains saving money, but their comes a time when you have to pay for what you want.

Waspman always seems to preempt my comments, probably because he gets up earlier.{Or stays up later}. The Orioles farm system is devoid of position player prospects that can help the major league club for at least several years. The one year deals that Andy has made will make this year's more interesting, albeit at this time still probably a sub .500 baseball team. They should improve over last year 69 wins by 5 games or so, with the current roster. Still, the club lacks the core impact players to be compettitve in the AL East. Therefore if any or all of the one year rentals exceeds expectations Andy likely will not pay them what a contender might, so next year the team may well be right back in 2010 again. As Waspman indicated, sooner or later Angelos and Macphail{or vice versa} are going to have to go after marquee talent in order to try to win the division[ If that truly is their goal}. Macphail has had four offseasons to make a difference yet his apologists are still uterrring the now outdated refrain "Look what a mess he inherited{back in 2007, which in baseball can be a lifetime}. If this team does not play .500 baseball this year then Macphail's tenure should be deemed a failure based on the only analysis that matters...win and lossses.

TheDuchscherer signing is a palpable risk for a team and an organization that still, after 13 losing seasons seems content not to try to reach for the brass ring. That's why he was still available.

The three infielders that Macphail signed are all coming off down years, and Hardy appears to be in a consistent decline. Macphail has been busy this offseason, I will give him credit for that. But busy does not always translate into wins, especiially with all of the qustion marks associated with each player signed, Brian Roberts health, and an unproven starting pitching staff with no depth.

"unproven starting pitching staff with no depth."
Our starters at Norfolk will most likely include Tillman, Britton, Patton, etc.

"Still, the club lacks the core impact players to be competitve in the AL East."
Weiters Jones Matusz, Markakis, Reynolds
Scott" to name a few.

""Look what a mess he inherited{back in 2007,"
Not true?
Check out the 40 man when he took over and the 40 man now. Case closed.

"Therefore if any or all of the one year rentals exceeds expectations Andy likely will not pay them what a contender might."

Guess What. This team has alot of their own players they will need to sign to hold on to in a couple years.
Name all the long term stupid deals Macphail has made to put the club in a bad spot. We are set to be competitive for the next several years with a smart payroll and lots of young talent, especially starting pitching.
Great job by Andy.

Iceman, well said, well said.

Gil,

MacPhail's stated intention when he took over was to build through the system, using draft picks and trading key veterans. He did so with the Bedard and Tejada trades, both of which have to be considered Orioles wins. When he was in Chicago, he followed the "grow the pitchers, buy the bats" philosophy to a tee, and it took them to the brink of the World Series and built the foundation for two other division winners. That's what he is trying to do here.

He accelerated the process by getting three solid position players. Sure, all three are coming off "down" years, if you can call the numbers Reynolds and Lee put up "down". Don't prate to me about Mark's average or Ks. He is considered by major league scouts, whose job it is to know these things, to have some of the best pure power in the game and some pundits are predicting 40+ this year. I'll settle for a split of the difference between 2009 and 2010. That would give him 37 HRs, 100 RBI on a 230 average. You telling me you wouldn't take those numbers?

Hardy is a concern, but his upside is immense, remember, he is just 28. Two years ago, he was in the 20s with HRs but has had injuries, as Reynolds and Lee also had last year. All are said to be totally healthy, and if they are, look out. Waspman said the team needs to take a risk, well, wasp, you don't think Reynolds/Hardy/Lee aren't risks? BTW, you say that only Duke will likely be here after this year, I remind you that Reynolds isn't eligible for free agency until 2014, the point of which is moot, because the Mayans say we'll be dead anyway. He is 27.

The Orioles are nowhere as devoid in the minors as some of you like to think they are. Waring and Mahoney are considered a year away, Waring's power is unlimited, and Mahoney is a solid hitter. Bell and Snyder should be spurred on by last year's events. Only the most myopic would deny that the entire organization took a step back last season, and it stands to reason, some of those guys will bounce back.

The Orioles have re-stocked the middle infield with the likes of Schoop, Givens, Hoes, Adams, and of course, Machado.

Klein is a future major leaguer, Britton will be here this season, but they could use a couple of more arms in the minors. The OF is well stocked with Avery, Mummey, Angle, Henson, and Townsend. Sure it could be better, every team can say that, but it could also be a hell of a lot worse.

One recurring theme about this team is that they are all out to prove something. From the president of baseball operations, through the manager to the minor leagues, they are all out to show that what happened last year was a fluke. Roberts, Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reynolds, Hardy, Lee, the starting pitchers, Scott, the bullpen, all of them have that "chip on the shoulder" Lee talked about when he signed. You can not discount the effect having a bunch of hungry, driven players, with a manager who knows how to take advantage of it.

The point is, people like gil, wayne(whomever he or she or it is) or wasp or spedden or not brooks all choose to be pessimists, they all seem to wallow in their negativity. That's fine, be negative, your prerogative. I and some others, on the other hand, choose to see the positives. There weren't many last year, but there are certainly are this year. We'll see what happens.

Keep the faith, my brothers and sisters!!

Mr. Schmucker,
The Duke signing makes good sense, adds depth with low risk.

ps great to see you again at The Fest.
Don't forget Presley book "Careless Love."

Nice commercial Smitty. If I'm ever out of work I want you as my agent even if I had been as incompetent in my last position as Macphail has been in his current one. Then you could tell my persepective employer's why not getting the job done was not my fault and that I am really just now getting ready to get ready . Har Har.

YOUR 2011 AM ACQUISITIONS:

3B - wants to put '09 behind him

1B - one year rental

SS - wants to put '08 and '09 behind him

RP - wants to put '07, '08 and '09 behind him

SP - wants to put '08 and '09 behind him

This is reality folks. AM's KEY acquisitions are projects, one yr pick ups, or both.....

Sure Pete, by himself, Duch isn't a bad pick up........ BUT when EVERY player AM picks up fits a similar mold, then don't you AS A REPORTER, begin questioning such?

Or would that be too DEEP for you?

Goodness forbid you or your colleagues really looking at the collective garbage AM has picked up this year..... NO, that wouldn't sit well when yukking in up in AM's office during ST.

Oh but wait.... I forgot.... these guys are still better than the garbage that was on the team last year, right?

Ken,

Once again you and Smitty go on the vested interest defensive when pragmatic points are raised about the many questions the team has going into Spring Training. If you noticed I said the team would likely win more games this year. I'm from Missouri, Ken. All the talk and propaganda that you post doesn't equate to wins on the field. The team has lost 13 years in a row and the hardest thing in Sports to do is to stop losing.

By the way I have seen Brandon Waring play and I like the kid a lot. He has a long swing and is rough at third, but I did see him hit a ball about 450 at Bowie. He does have raw power.

Don't be so touchy.

@ Ken

You say Andy Mac in Chicago: When he was in Chicago, he followed the "grow the pitchers, buy the bats"

My Question is how is he buying the bats here in Baltimore? He's traded for a few (Reynolds, Hardy, Scott) and I guess you can consider Lee a bought bat. I think he's a better fielder as of right this second. I am hoping he has a nice recovery year to be honest! Alas, though he really hasn't done that here in Baltimore. Also, to be honest, the more this Vlad situation continues to unfold, the more I would consider Eric Chavez. He was a good hitter although, not as prolific as Vlad and he was an excellent fielder at one time. Why can't the O's consider Chavez? Dan C stated a few weeks ago, the O's could use a back-up, why not Chavez? I am really getting tired of waiting for Vlad or the O's to do something here!

And I'm from Illinois, gil.

We share some of the same "show me" attitude. Believe me, I also have grave concerns about this year's team. But, unlike some of you, and did I see something from 'wayne" above? I didn't read the post, because I know it's likely nonsense and I probably know what it says anyway(MacPhail's a loser, Moe, Larry, Curly, and Shemp are across the infield, Laurel and Hardy-different Hardy- are the battery, and the Marx Brothers are in the Of. Now, if we can just find another starter to go with Abbott and Costello, we'll be OK. Oh, and Bill Mahar's the closer, ouch!), unlike some of you, I look at the bright side. And, there is a ton of bright side.

It's not propaganda, gil, it's fact. It's reality. They have lost 13 in a row, but that doesn't mean they can't win this year. The past is the past, and the future is the future. At no time in the past 13 years have the Orioles had a team with this much upside. Could they all turn into Todd Cruz and Floyd Rayford? Sure. But they can also turn into the players they were as recent as two years ago. And there would be nothing wrong with that. And I think they will, all the signs point to the positive.

I've always enjoyed your posts, gil, you, at times, do make sense, unlike some of your running mates. But you do need to caution against being too negative. This year's team has a ton of potential and should be a lot of fun. And don't tell me the rest of the division is head and shoulders above our Birds anymore. Because if you really think that, you haven't been paying attention to what the other guys have or haven't been doing. This should be a fun year, and very interesting.

Yup, Waring's a beast. A product of a MacPhail trade, BTW.

Oh, the Orioles won 66 last year, not 69.

Keep the faith, my brothers and sisters!!

Ah, rodent, I'm trying to get out of here and go work out, since schools are closed again today. But, I'll try to answer your question.

MacPhail bought the bats in Chicago when the Cubs were in position to win. And "buying" the bats doesn't necessarily mean FAs. He made a huge trade with the Pirates and brought in Aramis Ramirez. Lee was also a trade acquisition by the Cubs, fore the great Hee Sop-Choi. But, he also bought some players, too, ya know. Alou, McGriff, Karros, Henry Rodriguez, to name a couple. Those guys kept the Cubs in contention for many years, and Lee and Ramirez formed the cadre of the two Cubs' division winners in the immediate two years after Mac left.

I guess if you were going to sign, Vlad, a one dimensional DH type who can play the OF one game at a time, I guess they could consider Eric Chavez. But his injury history makes Justin Duchsherer look like Lou Gehrig. And if Mac did sign Chavez, many in the peanut gallery around here would so it's a wasted signing, that Mac is always looking for a cheap alternative, he won't spend for a premier FA, he's a stop gap, yada, yada, yada.

You explain it to them. I grow weary trying.

Keep the faith, my brothers and sisters!

Another mediocre move not worth discussing.

@ Squirrel,

You realy think AM and Buck expect Duchs to throw 150+ innings? He's 33 and never done it before. Even if he threw great in the workout, they surely view him as upside only, and truly think that Tillman will be the more reliable arm. That's why I don't like this deal on its own.

@Wayne
You throw junk up hoping it will stick, I know, kinda like the elderly in a nursing home, and I also know sensationalism is your real angle but I'd like to flip the coin on each and every one of your lines in the last post, you know, per usual.

3B Perennial 40 HR Masher, last yr BA merely aberration in career perspective, upgrade both defensively and offensively over previous player(s) at the positions

1B Perennial ALL-Star, MVP Candidate, posted far better numbers than previous player(s) at position, in the field and at the plate, all while nursing opening day injury ALL SEASON. Presence helped fledgling team make playoffs. Does so AGAIN

SS Also All-Star Caliber player, even reduced numbers, AGAIN, topped what previous player(s) new team had at the position. MAJOR UPGRADE, Brings POWER to the 9 hole!

RP ? huh? '07, '08, '09 ARE BEHIND HIM. LMAO! And last year CLOSED out 37 games effectively, helping team win 85 games! Dominated the Yankees!

SP Again, '08 and '09, were cut short by injury but his numbers were his usual stellar. Dude can really pitch, almost as well as you bitch--and--bitch--and--bitch.

I'll add, I don't hear you bemoaning BRob and his absence from the lineup for 2/3rds of the season? Ans: Injuries happen and players, specifically, GREAT players REBOUND from them.

Indeed, AM is rolling the dice on some guys to do just that, rebound to their typical form. Find me a team that isn't doing the same? Morneau in the Twin cities, Zambrano on the Northside in Chi-town, Greinke for the Brew Crew, I could go on for days. Point being, in a sport, unlike any other, save for maybe Golf, where failure is still success (failing 7 out of 10 times at the plate and your good) THERE ARE ALWAYS Ups and Downs, Injuries and Recoveries. Dealing with such should not be looked at as some sort of fault or blemish of character. In fact, the opposite is true. It takes character to suffer through injury and return to your regular form. Judging the character of the guys we picked up, I think we will see the large portion of them succeed. And in their success, we will see the Orioles experiencing a real renaissance as a team. Makeup cannot be ignored. It's the team core. Everywhere Derek Lee has been, his team wins, and wins BIG. His prowess is as large and prodigious as his bat! Mark Reynolds is jacked to be coming to a team on the rise and he is in his playing PRIME. Hardy too. Both 28, 27 respectively. These are gritty players, Wayne and the Dolts. You can chicken peck negatives into their otherwise superlative careers, much like you could in any players resume. How'd A Rod do in the playoffs last year? Or Josh Hamilton, the league batting champ, once he faced the Giants? You can choose to empty the glass on every decision, every GM makes in baseball.
THEY ARE ALL ROLLING THE DICE!
They Yanks set payroll records last year and what did it get them? They didn't even win the division! LMAO

Now for positive amongst us, which thankfully, still RULES the DAY. r

Reality, after Buck "I came to truck" Showalter took over, the O’s had 36 Quality Starts in 57 games with a 3.16 ERA! I'll type that AGAIN for ya. 3.16 Team ERA.
Matusz took the reigns down the stretch and is pushing Guthrie for the number one slot. Guthrie will benefit from the
IMPROVED run support (did any pitcher have worse run support?) Bergy will come into the ST healthy, Duch is a roll of the dice, very true. IF healthy, ACE type bulldog w 4 pitches thrown at 3 different speeds! If he falters, Tillman (who lifted weights for the 1st time this offseason) will return and if he falters, Britton will come a charging. Arrieta proved against the Red Sox and contending teams down the stretch that he's legit. Look for some rough spots as the league will figure him out, then a recovery. Dude has great stuff and a bulldog mentality.
Question: When was the last time we left ST with a SOLID starting 5?!!
5 guys that have a legitimate shot at winning EVERY time they take the mound!?
EXACTLY.

The O’s have now majorly upgraded at 1st, SS, and 3rd or in other words, overhauled 33% of their batting order.
They buttoned up the bullpen w Gregg and Uehara. Gonzalez will be key in setup and I suspect Accardo might muscle his way into the mix from the back end of the bullpen. Hendrickson adds great versatility. Berken also has gotten his diet and training dialed so as a whole, the Bullpen can really be special. A team strength even.

Right now, barring Vlad swallowing his pride, here's your Opening Day Starting lineup and 25 man roster.

Roberts 2nd
Markakis RF
Lee 1st
Scott DH
Reynolds 3rd
Wieters C
Jones CF
Hardy SS
Pie LF

Reimold, Tatum, Andino, Izturis

Matusz, Guthrie, Bergesen, The Duke, Arrieta

Gregg
Uehara
Gonzalez
Johnson
Accardo
Berken
Hendrickson

It is VERY realistic for this team to compile a 4.20-4.50 team era, and score 150 more runs.

I’m really looking forward to watching this team, and believe the odds are very strong that this is now a legitimate 81-85 win team.

Might not be enough to make the playoffs or win the division but it will be a far cry from 66 losses and certainly enough to ENJOY SUPPORTING the TEAM!

Yes, we may not reach the promised land, but my fair weathered and REAL fans, 2011 will feel like heaven!

Generally in life, 'somewhere in the middle' rises to the surface, and it is certainly the case with baseball (162 games means averages rule). Wayne sees all the new acquisitions as has-been trash. Ken and Sizemo see them as destined for breakthrough. I think it's best to see it somewhere in the middle, and take each case as-is. An important criteria is career trends and prolonged recent trends.

1B: Lee is a career producer. He had one injury last year. He is getting to the end of his career. He won't put up the same numbers as he did a few years ago, but his history is pretty much a guaranteed improvement of Atkins and Wiggington. And it's a 1 year deal. This was a win for the Orioles and will make a positive impact.

SS: Hardy has been in a consistent state of decline for two years. That's a long enough pattern to be of concern. He'll still have a better bat than Izturis, but not enough that is needed for that position. Slight improvement, but not enough.

3B: Reynolds is a solid pickup. He's a proven commodity, and you know what you get: power with a lot of strikeouts. Granted, last year was too many SO, but again, you know what you get with him. Drastic improvement over last year, and he will contribute towards winning.

RP: Gregg is a great reliever, probably more suited to setup on a good team. But the history of spending too much money on relief pitchers continues for this team. It's the right formula if you're the Yankees, but not for a struggling team. Poor choice in my opinion. This pattern needs to stop.

SP: Duchsherer has some upside, but his history points strongly towards him having little positive impact for this team, beyond allowing Arrieta, Tillman, and/or Britton get some more innings in in Norfolk. I expect that his place will be given to one of the above young guys by the All Star Break. Decent pickup for the money, but for that much money, it's not really an impact move.

Overall, I think the acquisitions will break 50/50 or 60/40 in favor for the O's. A good offseason for Andy, I think, but I predict the best possible result being in the realm of 500 ball. Anyone who expects drastically more or less is thinking wishfully or enjoys saying "I told you so."

With Duchscherer, the O's are just taking a shot, hoping that they don't have to start Chris Tillman or Rick Vandenhurk in the Opening Day rotation.

This is about depth, albeit fragile depth. But no matter. 2011 hinges on the success of Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Brad Bergesen anyway. Everyone talks about the Buck factor and the impact that he made at the end of last season, but look at what Matusz, Arrieta and Bergesen did over the final two months of the season. Matusz, in particular, was almost unbeatable.

No matter where you are on the spectrum between wayne and ken, you have to agree that if Matusz, Arrieta and Bergesen pitch in 2011 like they did at the end of 2010, we're in for at least an exciting season.

I'm incurably jaded.

Pete,

I wasn't saying that I seriously expected MacPhail to go after Cliff Lee, but I did expect him to go after a starter who had a good (or better) chance to at least make it past spring training.

I hate repeating myself (which is why I don't post here everyday), but Duchscherer wasn't even breaking the mid 80's during his try out sessions. Maybe he wasn't reaching back far enough for it, but that is very alarming to me. Before he was MIA for almost 2 seasons, he had a 3-1 SO/BB ratio which is outstanding and shows he has exceptional control. If he can continue that pace, he'll have some continued success regardless of his fastball. If he can't, he'll get lit up. But I seriously doubt his ability to make it through a season without ending up on the DL two or more times. In fact, my expectations are low on him making it out of spring training healthy.

For a rotation that is in need of stability, I don't think this is enough. If it was for depth, I would say otherwise, but if Duchscherer is the answer going forward I think the O's will regret it. Outside of Britton and Tillman, I can't think of anyone who stands out. Also, I haven't given up on Tillman, but if can't stay consistent in the minors then I can't see him being successful in the majors without continuing the usuall results.

Pete's reply: If I were you, my friend, I'd be the last guy going back and looking stuff up. I probably did say that and the Orioles did not stay healthy, so the same thing applies again. I also said for weeks that the Orioles would hire Buck Showalter, something you vociferously denied could ever happen under Andy MacPhail. I could go on and on, but what's the point. You're inside your own fishbowl, but if you're comfortable there, who am I to complain

Pete's reply: Wayne, really buddy, you need to get a life. How many times can you say the same thing. If the Orioles had signed Cliff Lee, you would still be banging the same drum. We get it. You hate Andy MacPhail. We all figured that out about a year ago or more. If that's all you've got, you need to get another hobby. I hope this doesn't hurt your feelings. I'm not angry at you. But you're not smarter or more insightful than anybody else. What you're doing is the easiest, least insightful thing you could possible do in this situation. If you keep predicting the past, you've got an excellent chance to be right.

Pete's reply: Pretty tough talk from a guy who claimed he was coming to FanFest a year or so ago to ask Andy a tough question, then lost your nerve. Now you spend a half-hour repeating yourself in this marathon post. At least those people went outside on Saturday. I noticed you didn't make any prediction, because the last thing you're going to do is put yourself out there and take a chance on being wrong. When does it become laughable? It became laughable years ago. Now, the real fans are hoping something better happens -- regardless of how faint that hope might be -- and you crap on them like you're some kind of superior human because your so good at predicting the past. I bet you go to movies twice and yell out the ending

Well wayne, you've been called out and beaten down by the blog author yet again.

You've been called out and beaten down by posters over and over again.

Glad to see you've moved over to Orioles Insider("I read the Insider, but never post there"). It's another forum you can make a fool of yourself on.

GO O'S!

not brooks;

You are absolutely right about the O's young pitchers. They are what 2011 will be about. If the last two months last year weren't just a fluke, it well could be exciting this summer. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

Pete,

This is more of a general question, but I was hoping you could shed some light on how much of an emphasis the O's front office puts on sabermetics. McPhail as an 'old school' sort of baseball guy is someone I've worried might be too set in his ways to accept the realities that sabermetics have helped shed light on, and I've never heard him really talk about it. But when you see two of the best organizations in baseball right now are both run by saber-stat friendly GM's (Jon Daniels and Andrew Friedman in Texas and Tampa, respectively), even Ca$hman in New York paying close attention now, Epstein being a devoted saber-geek, and a guy like Jack Z in Seattle who is slowly but surely pulling them out of the mess that Bill Bavasi made, it's pretty clear that detailed statistical analysis is necessary for a baseball front office to thrive. Has McPhail adjusted in that way, or do you think he has drifted more towards the change-averse older crowd that likes to think 'stats are geeks' or whatever kind of justification is made to avoid BABIP and the like.

You all know im right

and thats what hurts i guess

even Vladdy dont want to come here

sizemo your embarrassing yourself

No, wayne, you're embarrassing yourself.

BTW, wayne, don't you know anything about proper punctuation?

It should read, "You all know CAPITAL I APOSTROPHE m right and that APOSTROPHE s what hurts COMMA CAPITAL I guess PERIOD

CAPITAL Even Vladdy DOESN'T want to come here PERIOD

CAPITAL Sizemo COMMA you APOSTROPHE re embarrassing yourself PERIOD"

If someone is impersonating you, wayne, I'd sue him. Besmirching your good name, I can't believe it.

And if that's really, you, wayne, well, I'm not surprised you can't properly speak the language, judging by the gibberish you write.

Keep the faith, my brothers and sisters! And that includes you, wayne.

I found today article about Mr. MdFail having a large list of tasks and with the signings of two very large question marks Dutch due to injuries and Hendrickson, well he's not very good, the article summerizes that Mr. McFail has completed his task.

I have to disagree with many on this blog, while the team has improved from the 2010 team, this team is not growing better. With all of these one year contracts that are bacially taking flyers on players who have been injured or their careers taking a turn for the worse, doesn't build an organization.

While quite blunt in his approach, "Wayne" seems to be on to something. There is faith and there is blind faith and based on past results of this team and that of the new players signed it is quite a leap to say that Mr. MdFail has done any good for the long-term viability of the Orioles.

I certainly would like to see a competitive team in 2011, Buck was a great move, but when the Sox signed Crawford, traded for Gonzo and signed front end relief pitchers, it's hard to say the Orioles are better, relative to other moves.

I certainly wish the O's a great season, and I'm cautiously optimistic they will be much more exciting, however the realist in me says we will finish in our familiar and solid 5th spot in the AL East.

I can see that the pom pom waivers, the true believers and the Oriole employees and their affiliates are outraged that wayne continues to post. However, as I have pointed out many times, talk is cheap, and wayne has the facts on his side...the number 13. This season has become a make or break year for the Orioles. After four offseasons of dithering and picking flysh** out of pepper ,if Macphail cannot produce a winner this year, then wayne is right and you all are wrong.

The process of becoming competitive in the division could have and should have become urgent for this franchise when Macphail arrived. It has not. Even the Sun blog authors are predicting around 75 or so wins this year. That would be ok for an expansion team, but not for the Baltimore Orioles who have become the laughing stock of late night TV.

Talent wins in the AL East, not crossing fingers. Rebuilding is not a zero sum game, marquee talent can be added as the process moves forward.

When the experts come out with their pre season predictions, most will pick the Orioles for last place again in the division. I guess you all know more than they do.

Yes, the team will be more interesting this year because of the personnel moves. Yes we are all hoping that the team can be competitive in the AL East. But that result is not likely. And for that we can than Andy Macphail and Peter Angelos. They have signed four individuals vying for the comeback player of the year award. Wow.

@ Scott N

While quite blunt in his approach,
"Wayne" seems to be on to something.
He's always onto something! Nothing new there Scott

Look, the Orioles should see about trying to trade for Volquez., I am serious.
Plus, he had a relationship from Volquez's days as a Ranger. I would Love to see something happen there!

Also, Ken I am glad you made it home safe and sound from work. It's really "Yucky" out there. Maybe a nice trip tto Sarasota or Tampa/Clearwater would make me feel better.

Brooksie, yes I agree those three pitchers and yes including Guthrie all improved once Buck got here.
As fans we just have to be patient, one of these days the ball will have to bounce our way! I just wish they would sign Vlad and get the 2011 season rolling!

I am so silly... I meant to say Mark Connor had a relationship with Volquez during his days as the Ranger Pitching Coach! I meant to type that...

Squirrel -

After winning their division and keeping their ridiculously talented core intact by buying out Joey Votto's arbitration years and extending Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto, why in the world would the Reds trade Edinson Volquez?

Gil, to quote the great Ronald Reagan the week of his 100th birthday, "There you go again!"

Do you really think they signed/traded for four Garret Atkins? One guy hit 32 HRs last year, even with a 198 average. Another hit 19 bombs and drove in 80, another saved 37 games in the vaunted AL East! The other as recently as a couple of years ago, had back to back years of 20+ HRs and is still one of the top defensive SS's in the game.

I told you before, the way to rebuild and the way MacPhail went about it is build through the draft, trading for prospects and then making key trades. That's what MacPhail has done and now this team is on the verge. Only, the likes of you and wayne and others just refuse to see it. This is a good team they're putting out on the field this year, and what's more, no one in this division is head and shoulders above the rest. Even the powerhouse Red Sox better hope Beckett can do better than 6-6, 5.78 and Dice-K can do better than 9-6, 4.69 or Crawford will tire himself out chasing all those line drives off the Monster. Plus, key Sox Youklis, Pedroia, and Ellsbury all had major injury troubles last year, yet you expect those guys to come right back without issue and you just can't grant the Orioles the same consideration. And be honest, would you rather have Markikis or Drew in RF? I'll take Nicky, thank you. Scutaro or Hardy? I'll stick with JJ, if you don't mind.

Even ESPN, the Yankees network, writes that the Yankees will likely be weaker this season, with ARod. Jeter, and Posada all in decline, no Cliff Lee and probably no Pettite. The only guy they have that is far above the rest is that 2B. I'd give my right te****cle for that guy. Even the erstwhile Baltimorean Teixeira hit only 56 with 33 HRs last year, Lee is certainly capable of that, and so is Reynolds. Yet everyone thinks he's Lou bleeping Gehrig. Puh-lease.

The Rays lost several key players, and have to rely on rookies at three key positions, SS, LF, and in the rotation. They did sign Casey Kotchman, wow! I'm impressed. And can't wait to see the first time Maddon and Manny clash, that'll be fun to watch. And if they have to use Damon full time in LF, are you kidding me? Who's gonna close for them, Kyle Farnsworth, THEE Kyle Farnsworth? I'm psyched. But then again, I root against the Rays. Love their top three starters, but after that????

And the Jays? They traded Vernon Wells so Rajai Davis can play center? Corey Patterson will be the fourth OF? Aside from those two, I don't recollect them adding any position players, do you? They lost Buck, Overbay, and Wells, that's 71 taters out the window, and you really think Bautista is gonna hit 54 again? Many people think he's good for 30, that's a loss of 24 from him and with the other 71, that team looses almost 100 HRs and didn't any power. They do have a nice top three starters, and a decent pen, anchored by Octavio Dotel, yup, Octavio Dotel, but that's about it.

Many prognosticators are already saying the Orioles could very well be the surprise team in the bigs next year, MLB.net has said it, Law has said it, Neyer has said it. Will it happen, I don't know, but it sure is possible.

So, gil and wayne, and meso(nice to hear from you, thought you'd given up on us) and all the rest, you go right ahead and believe in nothing. It suits you fine. Me and the rest, we're excited and can't wait fore this thing to start.

Keep the faith, my brothers and sisters!!! And wayne.

Gil,

When the experts come out with their pre season predictions, most will pick the Orioles for last place again in the division. I guess you all know more than they do

To answer your question, PECOTA via www.baseballprospectus.com already has predicted the Orioles for 77 wins and 5th place. In fact, here it is with a link:
Red Sox 92-69
Rays 84-77
Yankees 82-79
Blue Jays 80-82
Orioles 77-85

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

Many "experts" use PECOTA as a basis for their predictions, which also provides statistical analysis if you want to look deeper into it. Of course, they will revist and reevaluate these predictions at the end of March once the roster is offically set.

Personally, I'm predicting between 70-75 wins once injuries and underperformance plays a factor. The main flaw that PECOTA doesn't factor is injury because you can't predict who and when will get injured.

Thought you'd be interested.

@Brooks

Good 2 see you back. And as for Reds trading Edinson Volquez, it's probable a lot of wishful thinking on my part. I know you probable asked rhetorically, but since Connor did know him and hey the Reds might not be able to resign him next year. So why not get something in return. The O's do have a few things to offer. But ok, I will drop it. I was curious to see if anyone had thought on the matter.

@ Petey Pablo,

I have no idea if "The Duke" can make it through the whole season. The one thing I tried to get an answer on but could not was this question. Do the O's think they can fix something in his delivery so he doesn't get injured or just hope he holds together till Britton gets here?

@ ken, you have been a writing machine today!

Signing Duch is fine..so long as they are not counting on him at all, as mentioned above, because the odds are heavily in favor of him not starting many games this year. And I, for one, take his Oakland stats with a grain of salt.
Hope he has a great year, not holding my breath.

So, hopefully that means the team thinks Tillman or Britton is ready. Problem is, Ariatte and Bergeson both enter the season with injury questions.

Millwood would have been the smart signing. Who knows, maybe he wasn't interested. Garcia would have been the second option. Those guys can be counted on to pitch a whole season - a 5th starter is not needed to be a world-beater, this team could have used a 5th starter that would start 35 games.

Hendrickson is a joke if he's supposed to be our LOOGY - so far that's the big mark against macphail this offseason, along with not even trying to sign a star, but I believe that's Angelos' fault, not Macphail's.

Finally, Ken, I think you put too much stock in the O's farm system. MLB.com had a list of the top 10 prospects at each position (they combined OF into 1 position). So, C, 1B, 2b, ss, 3b, of, righty and lefty starters.

want to guess how many o's were on that list of 80 players?

We have 2. Britton and Machado

ken,

That last post wasn't mine.... you should have known that. Just so you know... it's smitty up to his old tricks.... which means I'm getting under his skin..... which is delicious...

BOTTOM LINE IS....

3B - wants to put '10 behind him

SS - wants to put '09 and '10 behind him

1B - one year rental

RP - wants to put '08, '09 and '10 behind him

SP - wants to put '09 and '10 behind him

And this was in fulfillment of the O's WISH LIST? EACH player above has said they want to put the years I mentioned behind them.... and for good reason.

These are AM's new acquisitions. And I'm not even being negative..... Rather, I'm simply stating the OBVIOUS.

And before you're mean to me any further ken.... just let me know how you'll be paying off your bet. I would think that's for you to decide. No?

GO O'S

Hey Beaner (Wayne). Why not just go by beaner all the time?
How can your Red Sox be so bad as to only go .500 against the O's last year?
What does that say about the Red Sox?
shouldn't they have beat up on such a pitiful team?
I am glad you admitted you were from Boston cause that makes it easier to understand.
I am also glad you are finally on board with knowing this team is about to win over 90 games this year and andy will be GM of the year!

This would piss me off if this were to happen! Also, is this the work of Scott Boras or is Rosenthal a propaganda machine?

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wonders if the Rays might consider moving Johnny Damon to first base, allowing them to sign free agent DH Vladimir Guerrero.

Laslty, where would Man Ram play in LF???

The Duchscherer signing is another in a series of very astute moves made by Andy this winter. Finding diamonds in the rough to augment whatever meager nuggets we can develop on our own is perhaps the only way we can ever be competitive. As a result of Andy's moves, we have an opportunity that may not come again for a good while. This year we might even be able to provide fans with a genuinely entertaining and competitive team. At this point I don't even care about the wildcard or the playoffs. I just want a team that is respected and has a chance to win. Guerrero would obviously be a huge additon. It would be unwise, in my opinion, to let this opportunity pass. Consider it an investment in a shrinking fan base. There are a lot of us who might even start coming to the games again.

Pete

I'm of the opinion that it's time to see what the guys who have grown up with the system or have been brought in to grow within the system can do.

We all saw what, in the best light, could be called a taste of what the home grown pitchers can achieve during Buck's tenure last year.

We saw Weiters develop into an excellent catcher who seemed to handle the pitchers very well after Buck showed up.

We saw a place to use Uehara effectively and saw the entire pitching staff finally start throwing the ball over the plate.

I think we now know that Nick Markakis isn't going to be the big power hitter many hoped he would be, but that he will be an excellent hitter.

We saw a big improvement in Luke Scott in that he was far more consistent.

After a very bad start, we saw Adam Jones hit well down the stretch but the jury is still out on him.

We saw Brian Roberts make a comeback from a bad back and we were happily surprised to watch Felix Pie show more offense than we thought he would.

We saw major disappointments at first and third base and AM has made the moves available to him to correct those things.

We were all disappointed with Matt Weiters' offensive numbers, but the guy has hit a ton everywhere else he's ever played.

I can't see spending top dollar on anybody right now until we see if what we saw in the last couple of months of last season continues with the young pitchers.

If it does, you have the cornerstone nucleus of a contending team. When you have that, you start adding on the high cost pieces to get you to the next level. I'm glad AM hasn't had a knee-jerk reaction to the fans' impatience and done some of the 'dumb' moves of the past...giving away too much money for players that didn't produce as they were supposed to.

I also hope he holds the ground and begins reducing what he'd pay for Vlad because, while so many on this board think that's a good move, I think last year was an anomaly and he won't come anywhere near those numbers this year wherever he he ends up.

smitty,

What are you on my brother? You impersonate me then you say I'm from Boston? Send me the post you say is me... sounds like it must have gotten under your skin...which is so easy to do.
Please reprint it.....

RECAP EVERYONE......

1B - One year rental

3B - Wants to put '10 behind him

SS - Wants to put '09 and '10 behind him

RP - Wants to put '08, '09 and '10 behind him

SP - Wants to put '09 and '10 behind him.

Folks... These players are the MEAT of AM's 2011 acquisitions....

His latest and greatest.... which apparently closes out his WISH LIST, fits AM's criteria to a teeeee.

1) He's cheap
2) He's coming off elbow surgery
3) He's coming off not 1, not 2, but 3 hip surgery's
4) He's dealing with clinical depression.
5) He's cheap (I know I said that already but it's fun to repeat)

Can't wait for AM to claim (when the O's break camp) that this is the best team the O's have brought north since he arrived.....

Shhhhh. Yes, he said that last year.... but let's not wake up the warehousers.

Pete, You say that signing Cliff Lee was impossible . You're right, but not because the O's are cheap, but because if Lee signed for 150M (or whatever it was) the Phillies 150M is a lot more money then the O's 150M. I'm afraid its going to be like that for awhile longer

And by the way everyone.....

Who doesn't think Tampa is going to pick up Vlad? You see, a team like that won't lowball him like the O's, and they'll figure out a way to make it all work.

I'm not saying he's going there.... but you really think he's coming to Baltimore? Seriously? Really?

He's why Vlad isn't coming here people........

One reason...

He doesn't need to put '10 behind him.... thus not AM's kind of guy - SEE RECAP ABOVE.

"Can't wait for AM to claim (when the O's break camp) that this is the best team the O's have brought north since he arrived....." Beaner

Actually for anyone who knows baseball you will know this is the best team to come north since 1997 or perhaps 98...

Not bad for the 4th year of rebuilding after inheriting the laughingstock of baseball.
I guarantee you no one in the AL East is laughing anymore...not after we cleaned their clocks the last half of last year and have made significant improvements.

I don't need to impersonate you Beaner, you do it enough yourself.

EVERYONE......

Please read smitty's last post.

I never have to make fun of the dude again.... smitty my brother, you've seriously outdone yourself (and your 5 other names) this time.

Bro, that was the best ever..... 'cleaned their clocks'. Dude, that was classic.

And please reprint the beanie post.... This must have been good to get your panties are ruffled.

Wow.... what a great post smit my man. Now everyone see's what a silly, silly girl you really are

smitty -

Here's the O's record vs. the AL East after Buck took over (I would not advise you to extend this into the entire second half):

vs. Tampa: 5-4
vs. New York: 3-3
vs. Toronto: 3-3
vs. Boston: 3-3
vs AL East: 14-13

That's not bad, but where I come from a good old fashioned clock-cleaning requires more than just a game over .500.

wayne -

Back to your old tricks, eh?

I think we've discussed all of the previous acquisitions enough, so let's get to the newest one and the prospective one...

On Justin Duchscherer: Sure, the Orioles didn't do what they needed to do to upgrade the starting rotation, but, at the same time, no one ever said that the Duke was supposed to be a big part of the rotation. waspman put up a great post about the Duke somewhere, and I'll try to paraphrase that:

Really, there is no downside to signing Justin Duchscherer. He's cheap and if he's healthy, he'll be very good. Sure, he probably won't be healthy, but if he's not, who cares? The O's will pay him, what, $1.8MM?

Bash Andy and the O's all you want for not upgrading the rotation, but there's absolutely no reason to bash them for taking a shot on Duchscherer.

On Vladimir Guerrero: I'm really not worried about whether or not the O's get Vlad.

Sure, it would be nice to have him in the lineup, but when it comes down to it, he's just another one year guy and he's not the difference between fourth place and a Wild Card berth. Really, the best thing Vlad could do for the O's is provide some K relief hitting in front of Mark Reynolds.

When it comes down to it, Vlad needs the O's much more than the O's need Vlad.

Save your breath (or fingers, rather...), wayne. There's no reason to rant about Duke and Vlad. As you should well know, there are bigger fish to fry.

not brooks,

As I've said many times, any one of these players would be a decent pick up. Duch for example, would be a fine flyer if AM had the bxlls to bring in one or two all around, productive players in their prime.

But that's not his style......

Instead, practically every player he has picked up wants to put '10 behind him. Some want to put the last few years behind them.

Perhaps if most of AM's pick ups weren't of the 'low risk with upside' variety, then maybe... just maybe the team wouldn't always need everything to miraculously come together in order to approach a 500 season.

So no,,,, by himself, Duch is a risk worth taking. Combined with a large group
of 'up-siders' who want to forget about their most recent performances though.... well let's just say it's tough to get too excited about this years crop of rentals and up-siders on the cheap.

The trick is to find productive players that don't cost a draft pick. This spring is reportedly one of the deepest drafts in years, giving up early round picks isn't a good rebuilding plan.

TB has done a masterful job of allowing other teams to provide them the picks to restock the minors. Think some of the players they let walk wouldn't have helped "short term"? But TB has taken the long view and have allowed guys to get their payday elsewhere and have restocked their minors.

That's their small market plan to compete, build it up compete, let the FA's walk and restock and reload.

The O's have tried to buy their way out of this mess before, it's like trying to punch your way out of a plastic bag. The O's don't need to pursue a small market approach like TB and Miami, but they can't simply try and outspend NY and Boston.

They have to return to their roots of building through the minors. It takes awhile to restock the cupboard, and finishing amoung the worst in the league yields the top choices. It's pretty rough to come out and tell the fan base our goal is lose 100. But objectively that was what was going on in the Trembley era.

The Yankees didn't sign their core as FA's, they grew them, so did Boston. Once the Minors start producing a flow of players trades and FA signings become possible. That's what we're seeing this winter, the O's have used 4 pitchers to bring in Reynold's and Hardy. I might add that only one seemed to be in the team's ML plans.

Wayne can recite why every player the O's brought in has some flaw, of course they do, teams don't nontender MVP canidates. But in every case the organization has picked up players that both improve the team AND allow minor leagurers to be slotted for success.

Buck managed to play above .500 ball against the AL East with the limited roster he had last fall. You play .500 ball against the contenders and beat up on the rest to stay in contention.

Buck will have the O's playing meaningful games when the Raven's are playing. You can take that one to the bank...

ken, the names you mention are taking risks but I meant taking risks when it comes to spending money as a way to supplement a team. In the sense you mean, Roberts is a risk even if he is reportedly healthy given his injury and his age.

None of players remaining are the top-tier risks I am looking for. I can see an upside to having Guerrero although it would make the roster a little quirky. I'm not against quirky if it is a better quirky, but Guerrero would only be another one-year patch most likely.

So, I'm for Vladdy coming here ... and I won't lose sleep if he doesn't come here.

As for the names you propose as proof of the Orioles stockpiling the minors, I beg to differ. However, this is one area I will give a little slack to MacPhail because it was so putrid when he got here, it was down right embarrassing. As a whole it has improved. As for future contributors at the major league level, whew, we gotta long ways to go, brother.

Of the first four prospects mentioned, three play primarily 1B. Waring in four seasons is just at Bowie. He does have power possibilities but the skinny on him is he doesn't have the range to play any other position (like 3B) and he can't hit a breaking ball. His 22 HR's in 546 PA's are offset by a paltry .242 BA and 179 K's.

Mahoney has played 273 of his 303 minor league games at 1B. Only 52 of those games have been at Bowie but he has shown indications he may be passing Waring. His BA and speed has been a constant and 2010 shows he might be maturing in the power department (18 HR's) as well. If his recent wrist injury isn't a problem, 2013 might be the earliest we see him at the Yard.

We have seen enough of Bell to know he is not ready for the majors yet. At 23, we have seen enough not to discount his future potential either. It could be interesting to see if Reynolds can blossom while Bell improves. 3B might be a position of strength in the next couple of years, or both could be a bust.

Snyder is yet another 1B in the Oriole fold. At 23, one can legitimately wonder if he is a genuine prospect or if he is a minor league place-holder. His 165 K's in 171 games at Norfolk hardly warrants a pedestrian .253 BA and 11 HR's. He has caught in 78 of his 443 minor league games but it would seem to me he would see more action there if that were a strong consideration. Right now, he is more likely to be a minor league free agent in 2012 than Lee's successor at 1B.

Then there were five more names trotted out. Four are too young to make heads or tails out of their future. Schoop is 18 and has played only six games at Frederick. His .262 BA is bolstered by his .316 at Bluefield. Givens, 20, has played one year only including one game at Frederick. Hoes, also 20, has played 275 minor league games, but only three at Bowie. Machado, 17, is the current golden boy of the system with only nine games total experience.

Adams, 23, has played 383 games -- 334 of which at 2B and 134 at Bowie where he batted .298 with 15 HR's while striking out 121 times. He could be the heir apparent to Roberts if he continues to mature and if Roberts can hold on that long.

From a position standpoint, it is still meager. There are a couple of possibilities and they are likely two years away at best. None are outfielders, especially with Reimold's career taking a u-turn last year.

This is precisely why I say the Orioles needed -- and still need -- to take a multi-faceted approach. While free agency can bring in bridges to developing prospects, they can provide long term solutions, too. And long term solutions can plug the drain at the major league level while the minor leagues can take a more pragmatic approach at those positions.

The Orioles have not taken this approach. It costs money.

The upside is the Orioles are genuinely better short term and are allowing prospects to compete with each other to become major leaguers. This would encourage fans to become season ticket holders (or in my case, once again).

The downside is the player is a bust due to lack of production or due to injury. This is the risk that scares the Orioles. On a certain level, it should. But if you're beholden to your fears, it isn't fair to criticize the fans to being scared of being optimistic.

The sad truth is the downside has a hidden upside. A bad move will get criticized. Being scared to move gets ridiculed. With criticism, you just move on. Legitimate ridicule becomes self-fulfilling. No matter what happens in 2011 -- even 95 wins and a wild card berth -- the offseason for 2012 will have the same reset buttons pressed.

Commitment is a two-way street. The Orioles are in business to walk that street. The rest of us may want to but don't have to.

ken,

I honestly hope that the four players Macphail signed have years matching the best they have ever had. How likely is that? It is no coincidence that they "fell" to the Orioles. Translation: No team that has an opportunity to compete for a division and/or wild card was interested in them. I am sick of the losing and admit that I have become somewhat jaded by what seems like groundhog day when we discuss the Orioles chances every year at this time.

The bottom line is that until the team shows that they can win they will get no respect from the national media or from better teams they play. Macphail certainly was busy this offseason but in my opinion he once again failed to add the impact offensive players necessary to compete in the AL East. Andy is not trying to win the division or maybe attain a wild card. He is clearly trying to fill in positions with the best possible leftovers that none of the top teams want. That's why I say that if you are not trying to win, you are planning to lose.

Andy knows it too. Try to find a quote that he has made that he thinks the team can win the division or a wild card. All you get from Andy is the usual phsychobabble. He is always careful not to raise expectations about winning because he has none.

His time in Baltimore has been the ultimate description of over cautious incrementalism, when the situation called for more drastic action. After 4 years if the local media is prediciting around 75 wins...that tells you what they really think of his reign. All Macphail has done so far is to prolong the misery.

Gil,

Possibly the finest post I've ever read on this blog! Eloquent and to the point and could not have been said better.

As a 45 year fan, each year gets more depressing as we see the same kind of half @ss moves of acquiring players that may be better than what we have, but wouldn't be considered by a playoff team.

A blind squirrel finds and accorn occassionally, taking flyers on so many so often is NOT a plan unless your goal is 14 consecutive losing seasons!

Thought it was interesting we gave Winn a minor league offer, I guess he wanted to extend his streak as the player who has played the most games without a playoff appearance!

Amazing post Gil,

It's literally impossible to debate any of the points you made. Well, impossible for rational, realistic fans that is.

I was thinking that if The Sun had a 100% unbiased staffer, yours is the kind of article they would write. Could you imagine it ever happening though?

Admittedly, I'm a blowhard compared to you. Having worked in NY, my style is more suited for sensationalism than civil chatter.

One thing we have in common though is... we tell the truth about this team. We both notice how after 4 years of AM, the local press is still predicting around 75 wins (which would be yet another disastrous season). We notice and point out that after 4 years of AM, there remain zero position players in the minors anywhere near major league ready.

AM has no winning plan. If he did, he would give some idea of a time frame. If not in his 4th year, is he planning on winning in his 5th? 6th? 10?

He won't ever do such because he will never put himself out there. He'll never put pressure on himself. He will never allow there to be expectations.

People need to read clips from the Chicago papers during most of AM's reign. Although he had more money to spend, the commentary against (and it was 99.9% against) was much like what you wrote above. The press in Chitown were not easy on AM, for good reason.

Then when AM left the Cubs, he simply said 'I failed'. It's like when an NFL receiver drops a pass, then pounds his chest to indicate that it was his bad. No Shxt it was your bad.

AM saying he failed (in his usual monotone expression) didn't make anyone feel any better though... It just meant that even he agreed that his years there were a waste.

So unless Buck does something miraculous, AM will have yet another horrid W/L record in 2011. And remember people.... 75 wins means you're one of the worst teams in baseball, no matter how you spin it...

But he will have done so yet again, while never suggesting to the fan base it would have been even one game better.

With some fans, AM gets away with it..... But when you're at the park on a Tuesday evening, you quickly realize (by the huge # of empty seats), that he's lost most of the fanbase.

That is of course - unless the Yanks or Sox are in town... then the seats are filled with blue or red.

Scotty, spot on.
Gil's prose has always brought a tear or two to my eye, and his last post had me both weeping into a martini that only a died-in-the-wool Fitzgeraldian could imagine, and yelling Finney-like from my kitchen window "I've just been introduced to the truth.And I mean the truth!" And believe me it's really cold tonite,so for me to open the kitchen window says about all you need to know about the impact that the piece had on little old me.
To that point, I have nominated Gil for Best Sportswriting Blog Entry Of The Year, and imagine it's only January! I have forwarded the post to my good friend William Nack(not really a friend but I like his work, and anyway it's a blog and liberty taking is a blog trademark) who was obviously so affected that he finally was able to summon the energy to send me a one syllable email- "Uh".
He needn't say any more. It's the understanding in this near silence that makes us such good friends.I'm just hoping he doesn't quit writing. Sometimes when you've read the best you start to question.....oh, sorry, I digress.
Anyway, to both of you -Gil, keep up the fine repetitive work, but it seems that the rant has been finely honed so maybe you can stop. And you Scotty, it's that kind of ass kissing that juxtaposed against the Wayne vs The World and The World vs Wayne that makes the blog a writer's paradise.

Once again, a heartfelt thanks and a tip of the O's cap to Pete for hosting this roundtable. Although I would expect better snacks and a free drink every once in a while.

"A blind squirrel finds and accorn occassionally, taking flyers on so many so often is NOT a plan unless your goal is 14 consecutive losing seasons!"

I think this says, in a more entertaining fashion, the point Wayne has been making (over, and over and,,,) Taking flyers year after year is NOT a plan. The man has been here long enough to have stocked the Orioles with either some marketable players or ones that have true Major league potential. Taking a shot on one guy, okay. Resting the success of your season on taking a shot on four guys, seriously?

I still think the Orioles are enough improved, and with a real manager, that they will be competitive for much of the year. But even if (as Gil says in the highly unlikely event that) AM's four off-season reclamation project acquisitions return to form, what then? Other than Reynolds, who would stay and how is that a plan? Even if AM's plan is successful next year, all that will have been done is to achieve a better than average season and reestablish the market values of fading stars that we will have to replace in 2012.

Pete,

I believe that every team in the MLB had an equal chance to acquire Cliff Lee. The reality was only one team wanted his services more, and that's where he ended up.

As a looooong time O's fan, I have run out of patience to hear anybody try to explain to me why it makes sense that the O's haven't had a notable signing in the past 14 years other than Tejada. The one before that was Albert Belle.

The O's ownership, management, and Baltimore media, (and yes including you Pete), continue to make excuses as to why the O's continue to make bad to mediocre signings, and why they don't sign or trade for players like: Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzales, Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford.

Why don't the Phillies, Yankees and Redsox come up with excuses? Why do they get who they want most of the time? They don't have more money than Angelos does. He is a billionaire. What's the excuse for not spending money? Is it anymore obvious that money equals sustained success in the MLB? Yes, I said sustained. Which rules out one hit wonders like Tampa Bay.

Enough already! Losers make excuses. And it is so fitting, because the O's are losers.

What adds insult to injury is the fact they raise the ticket prices. That's OK though. It won't affect me. The last game I attended at Camden Yards was the miracle comeback against the Redsox after a rain delay.

I will not step foot at Camden Yards until Peter Angelos either kicks the bucket or sells the team. I will continue to be a fan and root for them, but I refuse to support Peter Angelos. I don't have MASN, so my cable money is not going in his pockets. Yeah, I know it's drastic, but that's my principle and I'm sticking to it. Peter Angelos reduced the only baseball franchise I've rooted for into a sack of manure. I refuse to support than man's wallet, and I wish more fans would do the same.

"I believe that every team in the MLB had an equal chance to acquire Cliff Lee. The reality was only one team wanted his services more, and that's where he ended up."

Meso -

Sorry, but you're just plain wrong here.

Unfortunately for several teams, every team most certainly does not have an equal shot at every free agent.

If you can come up with a compelling argument that the Rays, Royals, Indians, A's, Marlins and Pirates each had just as much of a shot to sign Lee as the Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox had, I'll back you up 100%. But you won't be able to do it, unless your justified disdain for Orioles management has pushed you beyond the bounds of reality.

All of that said, the Orioles definitely had a shot to land Cliff Lee (or Carl Crawford or Adrian Beltre or whatever other top free agent you want to talk about). Now, your kens and your smittys will tell you that a) the O's can't afford to devote 20% of their payroll to one player and that b) the team needs to save money to lock up Matusz and Wieters and Machado and our top pick from 2014 and that c) Lee wouldn't want to play here because the Orioles are losers.

But...

a) The Orioles have money. Lots of it. Peter Angelos spent $90MM on a 72 win as recently as, what, 2006 (my numbers are little off here, I think)?

b) If this team doesn't bring in some marquee players and win a bit, are Matusz and Wieters going to want to stay here when they hit free agency?

c) You never know until you offer the big bucks.

I'm not saying that the Orioles could have or should have or would have signed Cliff Lee if they tried. Just that they should have tried. Just like they should have tried with Crawford and Beltre and several others in offseasons past.

I'm ranting now. I barely even know what I said.

Hope it makes some sense!

nb, probably makes as much sense as anything on here...can you increase the Eloquence Quotient please.
Also, kindly cut and paste your entry into this blog entry 6 or so times in the next week.

Now Playing: Keeping Up With the Jones'

Gil, well written. Thanks. You wrote:

"The bottom line is that until the team shows that they can win they will get no respect from the national media or from better teams they play."

My addition to your bottom line is that the team won't get a lot of respect from big name free agents without showing that they can win, as well.

I add this because it's an important part of the equation: the Orioles team and system has been such a complete wreck for over a decade now that healing has been a colossal undertaking. This is why I have no problem with people being extraordinarily skeptical of MacPhail's work, especially since four years into his job, we're still in the 60s in the win column.

This has also created a bit of a Catch 22. We couldn't win without some big free agents, and we couldn't win with them because we lacked the depth in our system to sustain any momentum. We couldn't attract enough big free agents without starting to win, and we couldn't win without enough system depth. It's been an absolute wreck. I hope we get more than 75 wins this year, but even that increase will signify to free agents that this team is on the rebound.

Meso, saying "losers make excuses" is cute and applicable at times, but it can't come at the expense of ignoring how fundamentally broken this franchise has been for so long. Look at the Walgreen's Nationals: any future success is largely dependent on their big name draft picks (unless you think Jayson Werth and his contract will turn that team around). The Orioles still have a long way to go in terms of stocking their system with talent to win, and they're only beginning to turn a corner of having enough potential to attract big free agents.

That said, I agree with Not Brooks. This year, I wish the Orioles would have made a splash for Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford. I really, really don't think Cliff Lee would have come here, but I also think it would have been a good move just to make a significant offer. Signing Carl Crawford, on the other hand, would have ended the left field controversy, and we could have traded Reimold/Pie for more system depth. Oh, and Crawford is an incredible ballplayer all around.

Back to the real Orioles... sigh... it's a complicated picture, and I'm not sure any of us--even MacPhail!--have a full grasp most of the time. I'm also aware that if we choose to keep a small picture, we end up so angry that we become naive like Wayne. No thanks.

Here's my bottom line:

Would I take the current Oriole system over that of 2005 or 2008? Do I think we are in a better place to get bigger names now?

Absolutely. See you at the Yard on Opening Day.

We should have could have might have would have signed .....

Mark Texiera
Cliff Lee
Matt Holliday
Rupert Murdoch
Adrian Beltre
Carl Crawford
Babe Ruth

Sorry very bored with who we should have or could have

I like who we have

Jim 66
For "best response Humorous Post" category to a post on sports blog.
Literally laughing for 5 straight minutes. What Gil has done for the serious minded, Jim66 has given us comedy lovers a purely brilliant piece of work. Steve Martin is jealous. Being a Brian Regan kind of guy, I am very cerebral in my taste and jim66 has melded the serious and fanciful so effortlessly in his 10:46 post. Thank you Jim and Gil for keeping Pete's blog as the highest form of literary prose meshed with a dash of nonsense that this town has seen since the first year of Roch Around The Clock.

Who's the one constant factor since 93?

AM's a problem - but he also isn't the head of the snake. There have so many blunders over the past 13 years, that the issue is organizational and not just GM.

Ever since PA drove out Davey and Gillick, he's made one bad decision after the next. So he spent $90M in 2006, but Flanny was just crowned 'head GM', and no marquee free agent would sign here. Hernandez, Conine, and Millar - that was our FA crop that year. Along with the Benson trade.

The problem is the entire organization. It's possible that one person - like Buck or Cal if/when he come on board - can spark a change throughout the organization. But really, that falls on PA.

If we win 70-75 games this year, AM's contract will not get renewed, we'll have a new GM with a new philosophy. And the track record shows that whomever PA hires won't be the GM we'd like to see. It will be another Flanny, or Wren, or Andy.

Our problems are deep. I don't see them changing under PA, unless we just get lucky somewhere along the way. Would love to see the media provide a full report on the organization - top to bottom, with grade, comparisons, etc. Scouts, minor-league instructors, international, coaches, conditioning, all of it.

2011 looks better than in years past. Buck brings credibility, so too does a Derrek Lee, even if he is past his prime. But there's too much to fix, and it will never happen under PA.

Here's who smitty loves.......

1B - One year rental

3B - Wants to put '10 behind him

SS - Wants to put '09 and '10 behind him

RP - Wants to put '08, '09 and '10 behind him

SP - Wants to put '09 and '10 behind him

These are smits big 5 acquisitions that he loves....

Why would we nee a Tex or AGon when we have AM's projects and short term rentals.....

Rebuilding.... AM style.

Hey smit, you never re-posted that beaner post. Share with us please.

GO O'S!

smitty, pick up woody allen's Side Effects or Without Feathers for some pretty funny stuff. or Steve Martin's Pure Drivel.
If you're in the mood for some real serious stuff, try Gil's latest. The only issue the reviewer at the Times had with it was that it seemed to her that every chapter seemed pretty much like the last. So she began experiencing what she termed, and these are her words- debilitating bouts of deja vu- some so severe that she ended up watching Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind several times hoping that there was a clue about way to make it stop. She finally settled on a strong narcotic and a week in a dark room with a solitary violinist playing Bach concertos in G minor. So, alas, there is a cure.

Ahhh, but everyone is a Critic!

My thoughts on Vlad at this point:

I hope he agrees to terms and then fails the physical.

this by far has been a good offseason , i like all the moves ,and there are ifs and buts on some of these players but with this young staff and i think solid bullpen this will be a fun year . hendrickson is smart for the fact when there are games we are being crushed hes a good inning eater without burning up other pithchers , good ridence to albers . now with vlad it would be a thrill to watch him but then again i dont want to give up on a reiomold or platooning too much , so i think the offer the orioles made is fair and smart;i also think jake is going to turn lots of heads starting a whole year , so heres to a shot at fivehundred

All this talk of objective assessment is as amusing as ever. The immediate response to any critical comment is some reference to the last 13 years. Testicles on a man with a vasectomy are more relevant than what's gone on the last 13 years here. Teams go from relevant to irrelevant all the time in every sport on a per year basis. The Rays were markedly more pathetic the year before their turnaround than the Orioles were. The St Louis Rams, Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers all went from Super Bowl to bust already.

Anyone citing the last 13 years or even the last year have zero credibility looking to this year. No one knows what will happen this year. Everyone who feels vindicated for predicting last year should feel as proud as the player who predicts heads on a coin toss and wins. You had a 50/50 chance of being right. Good job. You just as easily could have been wrong. A ton of people picked the Ravens to be in the Super Bowl based on "facts" and stats. How'd that work out? What'd all that know-it-allness accomplish? The Steelers were supposed to be 0-4 to start the year and out of it before the season even got underway. I am no Steeler fan, but I don't see anyone on blogs gloating about how they called that one.

Be negative if you want, be positive if you want. No one has the right to tell anyone else how to be though.

Keep in mind too that history is far more kind than the present. How many would have bashed Brooksy and his .234 BA in 1969? He recovered in 1970, but he was as wayne says "3rd base, wanting to put 69 behind him" before the 1970 season. That included 3 straight years of declining RBI production too. Back away from the microscope, there aren't many people who hold up until their collective body of work is finished. Down years say nothing about the next year. Frank Robinson put up a relative dud in 68 too. I'm just glad there wasn't a 1968 version of wayne there to demand we should have dumped him at the break that year.

Wow! Why all the hate for Gil?

There's a lot of truth in what he says, but because he doesn't define "homerism to the 1st degree" he's full of it? After all these years, I'm trying to figure how optimistic anyone could be.

There's a difference between having faith and being blind, deaf and mute. Every new season brings new hope. That's part of being a fan. I just have more doubt than I do hope.

I hope all of AM's moves makes him look a modern baseball genious. It's the lack of faith and sense of reality kills it.

It's simple dave.......

He hit a nerve with anyone who is rational or 'alive'.

Those in denial year after year after year after year, can deal with what Gil had to say. So instead of sitting back and saying 'wow, he just defined the O's to a tee', they get defensive.

Warehousers have equaled 'defensive' for a long time now....... But when Gil hits a nerve the way he did, then they come out like stinkbugs.

Ok... Vlad is batting cleanup... now what do all the AM bashers have to say? Afterall, AM was going to lowball him and he would never sign right? Now we will complain that we overpaid, he's only a 1 year rental, he's a has-been...

Fact of the matter is that this team is much better than the team that played above .500 for the final 2 months of the season. McPhail has done his job and improved the roster, now it's Buck's turn to do his and get the young talented players that we are building upon to step up to the plate (no pun intended). Gone are the coaches we all complained about. Their replacements were hand picked by Buck.
I know it has been a long 13 years, but let's see the forrest through the trees and recognize that we have a legitimate reason to be excited about Oriole Baseball for the first time in over a decade!

Here's to a winning season in 2011... let's stop arguing like the fans in the bleachers in Major League and support this team!
Go O's!

Hey smit, you never re-posted that beaner post. Share with us please.

Do it yourself. Don't front like you can't copy paste. I think your relentless repetivite behind him posts have proven that.

I thought you didn't know how to copy paste? You know, when someone wants you to post a link.

It's funny that you can copy paste the same post 50 times in a week. Yet when someone calls you out and says back it up with a link, you turn into a drooling moron duuuhhhh me dunno how to post a link.

Convenient.

Worst nightmare. O's improve to 75 wins and that gets McFail five more years.

You people kill me

wayne, as usual, your eloquence escapes me. or i'm just not looking hard enough. Nah, but either way...

line by line, please explain your last post
i'm serious.i'm a rational guy, i'm smarter than a fifth grader, and I have not the slightest clue what you might be trying to say.
Is it the rational people who are the problem, or those in denial, those who are alive, or the stinkbugs, or warehousers...Can someone be alive and rational and in denial? Can someone be a warehouser and be dead? Can someone be dead but be in denial and then caught in some space where there are stinkbugs?
How does this all fit together???

To be clear wayne, you give Gil too much credit. Not that I'm comparing Gil to them, but the KKK touches a lot of nerves too. By your logic, that means the KKK is correct.

Some people just don't like how some people revel in pointing out the flaws in others nonnnnnnnnnn-stop. It's a sport, it's a game. If it's all that serious to you, just let it go. Buy a Yankees hat or whatever and back a winner. I really don't care. Mark Texeira is a local guy and he always loved the Yankees. Nothing says you have to be an Orioles fan anymore. My dad stopped cheering for the Redskins after a while and he's happier for it, believe me.

It just makes me laugh when there is this battle of who thinks less of the Orioles than the other and then they team up and berate the ones they don't think hate them enough. Emo kids who cut themselves would think you all need to lighten up a little.

As I said, if everyone was so negative in the 60's as some people are now, no one would have enjoyed the offseasons in the glory years let alone the down years. Hall of Famers had years that sucked and you'd just assume tare and feather them. Get on here and talk about Cal Ripken and what a statistical bum that guy was. Lets really get on the negative bandwagon here people. Have you seen his stats? He was like a yo-yo. You never knew what he'd do in April when you talked about it in January. People probably thought they could though. People wanted him out of here all the time up until his first ballot trip to the Hall. I mentioned both Robinsons before that people here would have run out on the B&O. Boog Powell went .234 and .249 in 67 and 68. If there was a blog in the winter of 68, you'd have run off Powell and Frank Robinson and talked about what a horrible GM Harry Dalton was. Of course Powell went .304 in 69 and won the AL MVP in 70. Ya, his 68 season was a great indicator of the future huh? Dave McNally won 7 games in 67, before running off four straight 20+ win seasons. So I'm not sure how anyone having optimism in someone like Matusz or Reynolds is that far fetched. No one knew those players would turn it around until they actually did it.

No one knows, but now everyone has just switched to bitching about the O's spending too much on someone all of a sudden. Tight Ass spends some money and he's still an idiot? Unbelievable. If I was the owner with fans like the guys here, I'd just assume hold a MASN special where every fan favorite was executed on the pitcher's mound before the stadium was imploded and urinate on the ashes while holding the paper I signed to disband the franchise as the camera faded to black before I pumped in an extra $20MM of my own money to make them happy.

Unbelievable.

Dave,I don't hate Gil, but I do try to take the opportunity to tell him to stick a sock in his one-themed rant every once in a while. Damn, enough of it already.
I'd rather watch a cat throw up a mouse than see his diatribe ever again.
.