If the Orioles are likely to be a combination of what we saw under Trembley/Samuel and Showalter, that computes to 73 wins. Hmmm, 73-89, eh?

I agree with the concerns with the starting rotation. A pitcher or two is likely emerge. I won't make any grandiose predictions of emerging to what, but let's just say a sustained improvement. A pitcher or two is likely to be disappointing when compared to what may be hoped. A pitcher or two is likely to spend significant time on the disabled list.

Such is all anyone can predict given the current make-up of the starters. And with little depth, that's a problem. So unless something changes between now and play ball, I see little to be optimistic for 2011 as a whole (which is different than on who might emerge still looking long term).

The infield should be stronger offensively if streaky in nature. Lee is the only bonafide professional one can count on to some degree, but he may end up in another uniform by trading deadline. He's a one-year Oriole at most anyway.

Roberts has health issues that can't be dismissed as being just a bad luck anomaly. When he plays, he is still quite the contributor. When he doesn't, the downfall in production will be noticeable without Wigginton or a suitable replacement.

The new left side could make the Oriole infield the best fielding team since ... oh, I'm not going to look it up ... if healthy. Hardy has had two full seasons of not putting in full seasons, however, and Reynolds will be probably be his all or nothing self.

Hardy and Roberts may constitute a 10-15% chance of losing time at the same time. If ten percent translates to 16 games, that will be an ugly 16 games with the current bench.

The outfield is intriguing even though there has been less movement there. Markakis will give his usual professional output, and could be in line for a few more long balls without a drop in production in doubles or batting average given the volatile nature of the new bats joining him. Still a young man, his defense may even get better even though it is pretty darn good now. Fewer teams take chances on his arm anymore.

Jones is an enigma. At times he showed improved discipline at the plate. There is reason to hope that discipline could be learned to be sustained. Ironically, his defense was suspect a year removed from winning a gold glove. Given his age, he could improve while people are focused on the new additions.

That leaves Pie/Reimold in left. They could be the next best thing to Roenicke/Lowenstein except they, too, need to stay healthy. They certainly don't bring the same tools as the two Orioles of yore. Even if Pie plays more games, I'm not confident he can maintain last year's numbers over greater exposure. Reimold on the other hand has to show he belongs first before any other assumptions can be made. Anything he offers will be a plus.

If Reimold ends up being Norfolk-bound, that could set up an interesting platoon of Pie and Scott. Scott could be the power bat against some starters while Pie could be the irritant. It would be unusual given both bat lefty but it would open the door to sign Guerrero. Scott (in this theory) could DH one-third of the time with a lefty-loaded line-up, and be in LF with Guerrero also in the line-up.

Since Guerrero isn't signed yet, I have to declare the OF/DH situation slightly improved despite no movement.

(On a side note, I rather like this even if it is a bit out of the box. Keep Reimold in Norfolk unless there is an injury no matter how well he does in spring training, and sign Guerrero. The depth of the Orioles is not deep depth.)

Wieters will catch. Tatum or Fox will back him up. The biggest mystery is where and how Showalter will use Wieters in the line-up. Wieters is young enough to improve, and I am enough of a Showalter believer that I think Wieters will flourish. How much? Who knows?

The biggest unknown is the Oriole bullpen. Much has been said that this is an area that may show the biggest improvement. Could be. Then again, I have heard that song and dance enough to not believe it as a knee-jerk reaction. This is one area the Orioles do have some depth and Showalter's history suggests he knows how to use his staff.

So, 73 wins would be a seven-game improvement. As the roster stands now, that's about right. Sign Guerrero, and I might goose it up a little bit.

Sign the best starter remaining for depth, and I might goose it a little bit.. Nobody jumps out at me. Millwood may have some innings left in the tank. Garcia started 28 games last year but 23 games total the three years before. There are warts on all who is left. And, yes, MacPhail will get criticized for doing things on the cheap (and don't forget on the slow, too), but that goes with the territory when that is all you do after you have run out of one-for-five trades.

Sign Guerrero, a starter, and another insurance piece for the bullpen, then you're talking three chances of goosing the win total up. If MacPhail can do just this much in the next two months and nobody else gets murdered or charged with murder, I may stick my neck out for e-e-eigh-eight...I just can't say it. Not yet.

I'm down for 73 as is.

I like what they have done but they need pitching and without that i dont see us being that mych better

Waspman,

Just want to clear up the fact for you that Freddy Garcia smells! He stinks. Just put him out of your mind for good. Andy Mac would be wise to do the same if he's thinking Freddy G as well. Same for Millwood. I can't see Millwood coming back, I really don't. I was listening to Jeff on briefly on WBAL last night and from what I gathered, he seems to think that the O's are going to trade for starting pitching. He didn't mention any names or teams. I think the same thing, but I will mention a team. I think the White Sox are compatible with us. I have been advocating Mark Buehrle. Maybe Edwin Jackson or Gavin Floyd would be interesting to us. We need a better #1 then Guthrie that's for sure.
The Orioles really need to go out and get Vlad, this holding pattern and shell game needs to stop. Don't get Mlad, Go and Get Vlad!

Pete anything will be better then watching the puzzled look on dave t face everyday.. How he even lasted the 2 plus years that he did is still a mystery to me. Hey pete any openings down at the sun, i know you have earned your time down there but you haven't worked hardly at all the last 4 months and now you are getting ready to head south in the warm sunshine, i quess i am just a little jealous but like that first blogger stated you have neglected this blog.

The Orioles have made the most improvements this year as compared to the previous 8 years. My only concern is the additions continue to be the players not in the top 10 free agents. We are allways behind the top 3 organizations when making upgrades. The Orioles need to make a top tier addition each year and payout 12 - 15 m per year for them.

Gee, thanks bunches, Pete. Now please return to being utterly indifferent about the Orioles and get back to your choking Ravens.

When you think about it, every starting pitching staff of every major league team is a crap shoot. You've got injuries, you've got guys getting older, you've got great pitchers having inexplicably bad seasons and you've got journeyman career minor leaguers who come out of nowhere to pitch like Cy Young for a season. My point is, yes, pitching is vital, and we have some question marks, but so does everybody else. At least our guys are YOUNG, have shown some ability to win on the major league level and, barring injury and chaos theory, should continue to improve, especially with a stronger infield defensive lineup and an upgraded offense that removes the "gee I only got one run I guess I have to make that hold up for 9 innings" scenario our pitchers have had to face in the recent past. Does that mean we'll hit .500 this year? Heck, even playoffs? Who knows? That's why they actually do play the 162 games because, like Chris Rock says, "ya nevah know!" My guess is we've seen less Orioles entries here in your blog, as a few posters have noted with varying degrees of irritability, because there just hasn't been much O's news to report. Hopefully with your arrival in spring training, that will change. Hang in there and looking forward to a competitive, challenging and entertaining Orioles season! Seeya at O's Fan Fest! Go O's!

Wild Card...you read it here first. It's going to happen.

Hey, no reason why the O's can't contend. Did anyone really expect the Giants and Rangers to do as well as they did?
It's all about pitching and the O's could surprise if their starters continue to improve. We have also assembled a pretty decent 'pen(although another lefty would be nice).

Waspman,

You have echoed all of the things I have been saying about this roster going into Spring Training so there is no reason to be redundant. Of course every time I have pointed out these issues I have been accused of negativity by the usual pom pom wavers, Oriole employees and their affiliates, and Andy's family. Last year I predicted 68 to 72 wins going into the season and I think you were in that range. I think you predicted 75 on the high side.

As it stands now this is not a .500 baseball team. How close they come to that mark will depend largely on the success of the starting pitching...which is the biggest questionmark.I predict between 69 and 75 wins in 2011. Whether that gets them into fourth place or not remains to be seen.

Bet my brother-in-law a bottle scotch the O's will sin 85 games. I'll probably lose, but I’m looking forward to a year of trash texting. And who knows? They've made improvements, and the homegrown talent continues to mature.

Hey, you know, speaking of statistics... the O's young coveted pitchers (Matusz and Arrieta especially) are due for break out seasons. I mean after the last 13 years of pitchers never breaking out (see: Cabrera, Ponson, and even Bedard {great trade}), The Orioles HAVE to get some luck sooner than later. And it's not just luck, these pitchers are talented, and what if Britton gets called up and lights the place on fire. That would be swell.

My point is, the O's are due. It's not scientific, but baseball (despite all the stats) has never been very scientific.

Heck, last years starting rotation wasn't even that awful. If anything they just weren't able to go past 5 or 6 innings, and it destroyed the bullpen. Maybe the pitchers got stronger as the year went on. They should be stronger this year, and our bullpen (arguably) will be one of the strongest in the AL.

Next point, Milwood should've been credited with about 10 more wins then he got. He did not pitch terribly, at all. The O's offense is better. theoretically that makes the O's 76-86 from the get go if they sign him back or someone comparable.

Offense improved: 5-10 wins
Bullpen improved: 5-10 wins
Pitchers getting stronger: 5-10 wins

I personally hope for the 30 more wins this year, but if they only win 15 more than last year, they'll be .500, and in such a competitive division, perhaps we'll see a finish like the NL West or Central had a few years ago. Remember when the Cardinals won with a record of 82-80...

Fingers crossed.

It's unfortunate that people like you can post anonymously. Pete knows who I am, where I work and where to find me. I guess my prediction, which was pragmatic struck a nerve, as you are obviously one of the three typical protagonists that I mentioned. Hiding behind a keyboard must be fun, but you are continuing to ruin the blog by posting under multiple childish names. Try sticking to baseball and not name calling and obscenities.

Gil;

Don't even respond to that kind of crap.

Pete;

It isn't difficult to block an ip address. It isn't difficult to identify an ip address from a poster. That's what you should be doing to the moron who posted at January 26, 2011 3:50 PM. Why don't you?

I take Survey of Twentieth Century Philosophy on Monday nights, and I enjoy it. We use words like pragmatism. We don't discuss baseball. Baseball is fun, or at least at used to be. It's a game, and the team that most of the people here seem to support (sometimes in unhealthy ways that annoy the crap out of everyone else) is the Orioles. This team got drastically better this off-season. They have a very solid defense. I'm thirty now, and this might end up being the best offense I've ever seen this team have. They have proven players this year, not a squad of rag-tag retreads. They will score a lot of runs... maybe as many as anyone in the AL east. They will also give up plenty, but I think it's going to be a lot of fun to watch. I just ordered the old-school cartoon bird cap from Lids, and I'm going to wear the shit out of it this year, even though I now live in NYC. It's going to be fun, so try to enjoy it.

Pete,

What's happened to this blog? Can we put some rules in place, and filter out the garbage and ban those ignorants dishing it out? The level of immaturity is absolutely ridiculous. There is plenty of baseball to talk about, instead some low-lives result to personal attacks and profanities.

dan s, Meso,

Thanks,

We have been on this blog since it started and although we don't always agree our conversations are civil save for a few people who ruin it. Actually I think it is only one person posting under numerous names and Pete could find out.

For ther record i don't hate the team and held full season tickets for 35 years until last year. They were corporate tickets paid for out of my company's marketing budget. In recent years I had so many tickets unused in my top desk drawer that I couldn't even give them to my own employees. that's why i stopped. My issue, and my only issue is the snail's pace of Andy's rebuilding program. In addition, I don't hate Peter Angelos. I have seen some of the fine philanthropic work he does without any publicity when I worked for the United Way. Angelos has a good heart when it comes to the community. He has just botched up the baseball franchise and I dont know if it can be fixed as long as he continues to meddle. I think Macphail would have brought in some marquee talent if he was given the green light from Angelos.

Personal attacks from all sides, reiterative rants, pulling stuff out of thin air, making up sources, claiming innuendo as fact-c'mon , that's what blogging is all about...it's not responsible journalism or a forum for classic debate, a study in logic, and not the first time personal attacks have appeared or even consumed a particular entry on Pete's blog.
You think this one is any different because the topic is baseball or sports?
C'mon Gil's a big boy. Hey, that personal attack might have come from his wife or son for all we know...

jim66,

Thanks, you have a unique way of putting perspective on the issues :) Now that you have opined about the blog thug, how many wins do the Orioles get this year?

Gil, always happy to help out.
Well, I have to think that +11 was a bit of an aberration, and being -40, well there's enough blame to go around for that stuff. Being the practical guy I am, I'd have to say that improving any more than 15 games in a season for anyone is a stretch. So, even while factoring in 1)a full season with a coaching staff with a clue 2)adding a probable and conservative 50 Hrs/175 runs from the new pickups and 3)some bullpen help and a guy that knows how to manage a pitching staff, I'll make 2 predictions. I'll say that the boys have a break-even year, and that the right fielder does not have a lunch date with the owner to bitch him out.

If the pitching especially the starting pitching continues the trend of the last two months of the previous season and if the lineup works the count like other Buck teams have in the past they can be .500, but this is still a team in need of a cleanup hitter unless someone emerges from the current group.

Bernard,

Dr. Obvious here.That missing cleanup hitter is Vlad the Impaler.

You heard it here first...err...for the 1,000th time.

A few quick points, then some unsolicited kudos.

I brought up Garcia and Millwood because they remain available but I also did say no one who remains jumps out at me as being notable. If the Orioles do a trade, that could be all well and good.

However, there are two things to consider in any trade that is made or imagined.

One, who are the Orioles giving up? That's not necessarily a negative. That's not necessarily a positive. It is a consideration.

As long as improving the product is the goal -- even if the trading partner does so, too -- then I'm fine with that. If it's a same thing only different scenario or an exercise for a couple of players to have their scenery change, put me down for a yawn.

Two, why is the player (or are the players) available? I sort of covered part of my concerns above. Add to that the player is one year removed from free agency. On the other hand if the trading partner is dealing from a position of excess or needs to do a salary dump, it could be the Orioles are in the right place at the right time.

Whatever, my predicted win total isn't going to change until the roster actually changes.

One thing that did change is my position on Guerrero. I'm not gung-ho for it but I do see it having its place short term with some possible residual benefits. The team would be more fun to watch but we need to be blindsided from somewhere else before we start thinking 85 or more wins with his theoretical signing.

Yes, I did overshoot with my prediction last year. It was 72-89 (with one rainout not made up). My prediction looked insane until the Orioles got a manager. I undershot the year before, but I am usually within a half dozen or so wins with the Orioles.

Now for the kudos ... Wednesday night, I was one of the many poor souls trying to get home. It took me four hours to go from Penn Station to Cross Keys. The latter is about the one-third mark in distance and halfway mark in time of my usual trek home during a normal rush hour.

I decided I would go to the Radisson Hotel at Cross Keys instead. I wasn't the only one who had that idea. As luck would have it, I got the last room -- a spacious suite at that.

Kudos Number One -- The Radisson did not gouge me on the rate. It wasn't cheap but keep in mind it is a four-star hotel and they could have charged double. Easily. The price was very fair.

Kudos Number Two -- When I got up the next morning, it was obvious they allowed people to stay in their lobby. I saw a couple of people still snoozing and a bunch of other folded blankets from those who obviously had used them.

Kudos Number Three -- The staff I woke up to was the same I saw the night before. They were courteous and professional to the max in what had to be a trying situation for them as well.

Thank you, Radisson at Cross Keys.

Yep would agree with you there Plausible. But their seems to be a lack of interest from the Orioles and for that matter seemingly most of the other teams.

Which leads me to believe one of two things he is either asking for the sun the moon and the stars or that their is nothing left in the tank which based off is 2010 stats wouldn't seem plausible.

So it must be about the dead presidents.

Everyone seriously needs to read again what everyone has been writing on this blog.

Look at the debate.....

Look at the projections......

73 wins..... +11.... etc, etc.......

The bar has been set so low in this town, that it's pathetic.

In Baltimore, it's not a countdown to when pitchers and catchers report......

.....It's a countdown for when the losing returns....

wayne,

I predict the Yankees will slide considerably and win 23 games this year. Everyone in New York should cancel their season tickets since someone on a blog made a prediction. Las Vegas should adjust their odds too.

The O's better!!!! Better than what? Last year? Does it matter? They're still not better than any of the teams in their division. They will still be bottom feeders. Last I checked Bucky doesn't take the field and play. How long can Angelos conn this city?

Exactly Meso,

Better than what? That's how low the bar has been set in this town.

In fact, can a bar be set lower than the ground?

As for Fanfest....... Why did the Sun even have to cover it? It's the same 'optimism' bs written last year, the year before, the year before, the year before.......

Fanfest is what it is...... A gathering for people who are tired of winter, while there is no other decent sporting event on the tube. So stop calling it excitement about the O's..... Instead, simply call it 'Something to do'

I think there big upside. It really has to do with taking pressure off the young O's: Weiters, Jones, Markakis, Matusz, Arrieta, Bergeson. All these guys have outstanding potential that if it develops the O's can contend, if not this year, next year. When you add Buck, Lee, Guererro, and some of the pithcing like Gregg and Duscherer, you are taking the heat off the boys so they can develop.

What if Weiters and Jones hit close to .300 w 20 homers each? What if Matusz, Arrieta and Bergeson win 15 games each. Now, you are close to contending.

Should be fun to watch what happens.