Luke seems like a nice guy, but his powers of observation are lousy. He said, "...the past two years we've always swung the bats well." Really? Then how did the Orioles finish ninth or 10th in the league in runs those seasons? The Orioles have been below AL average in runs (and team OBP, which tends to correlate with runs scored) many or most seasons during their 12 year sub-.500 streak, and the past two seasons were no exceptions,

when he hits a two out single with a man in scoring position instead of his usual solo homer than I might listen to him

With a little luck, Luke will start the season hot and we can trade him for something before his inevitable big slump. The guy is just too inconsistant.

Pete,
How was the party for the Orioles at Dick Vitale's house last night? I hope it was awesome, baby!

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I couldn't tell you Mike, but that party was for the players and coaches.

What...!? is it open season on Luke-bashing?

I hope he finds where all of you hide and f-ing shoots you.

Jerks.

I've seen him do it. Luke Scott, Baltimore Ranger.

Luke Scott said, "[T]he past two years we've always swung the bats well."

Well, he's really not wrong ... and, no, I'm not going to chide anyone by saying something like, "yeah, swinging at air."

The Orioles batting averages in 2008 and 2009 were .267 and .268. The league averages ere .268 and .267. The Orioles finished 8th, then 5th last year.

The problem is the Orioles hit 172 HRs in 2008 and 160 HRs in 2009. The 2008 total was actually higher than the league average despite the batting average being a smidge lower. However, it still only allowed the Orioles to finish 7th in the long-ball department -- quite a bit behind the league leaders.

2008 had some real slugs in the HR department.

Last year, the Orioles finished tied for 11th in HRs.

The Orioles need a difference-maker or two in the line-up. It will cost money to get that type of hitter, and maybe more than "market value" to dress them in an Oriole uniform. It can't be a surprise that it will take above average money to draw a top player to a below average team.

The Orioles have done okay with who they have. They probably will do so again this year. They just need to get a few different players swinging the bat especially well.

Teams win games by scoring more runs, not just by getting more hits than their opponents. High team average plus low team OBP, the Orioles M.O. the past two seasons, tends to result in low team ranking in runs scored (lack of team power also hurts, as mentioned by waspman.) Barring steroids and/or HgH, you can't turn a 20 homer guy into a 40 homer guy. You can, however, turn a .330 OBP guy into .360 OBP guy by teaching him more plate discipline, and not to be afraid of hitting with two strikes on him. Look at last season's Angels - they learned from Bobby Abreu's plate discipline, raised their team OBP, and thus raised their runs scored. Life is much easier for starting pitchers when they're not constantly pitching in close games.

Along the same lines as wasp man and oriAl, the Os were 2nd (maybe 3rd) in hitting in RISP. Problem was, they were 10th in ABs with RISP. OBP and SLG have to improve and since SLG maybe will a little wth a full year of Reimold and Wieters, they have to have a plan to get on base.

I agree with Luke that the O's are really going to surprise a lot of people this year. My prediction is they will not stay in last place more than a week. I wouldn't be surprised to see them batthing .500 before the end of the season. Go O's!

Pete,

I would make the case that a 1:1 trade of Tejada for Luke instead of the 5:1 deal made the day before the Mitchell report was published would be an O's win. He doubled Tejada's HR total last year and easily out-homered him the year before. Hopefully, Patton, Albers, Sarfate, Costanzo being in the organization make the trade even more 1-sided. Having Tejada 2 years later ( or 4 years older than when he left 2 years ago) really is a bit ironic.

I see Luke as a real assest. He'll hit 25 homers/400 at bats. We all wish he would spread them out instead of the hot streaks. Keep in mind that this was his 1st arbitration year. He is not the finished product that a 7 or 8 year Vet would be. There is a lot of upside.

Praying for Luke.

I would like to see luke get 550ab hit 35-40 hr and be offered a SS prospect like beckham for him. Go luke!!

I like Luke and feel he is under-appreciated, especially his defensive play in the outfield--he is not a conspicuous liability as the Orioles brain trust has inferred. That said, he one of the most inconsistent batter I have ever observed--it is literally feast or famine. Most disturbingly the famine occurs post-all star break which is crunch time. He may turn it around but then again he may not. He's also a dead-pull hitter with limited to no speed and teams are effectively employing a shift against him.

Still, I think, as part of the right package, he is attractive trade bait. At the end of the day, with 550-600 ABs, you can pencil in between 25-35 hrs, and 85-110 rbi. That's nothing to sneeze at. Coupled with a young pitcher, not an untouchable such as Tillman, Arrietta, Erbe, or Brittion , offering Luke should yield a top-tier short-stop prospect who is currently no lower than the AA level--this is not a stretch. Think of it, a Scott/Hernandez package is a very tempting offer to any short-stop rich organization needing a flame throwing 4th or 5th starter and a DH/LF who will be among the top 15 HR hitters.

While you're at it throw in Wiggington and his $3 million salary--it's time to own up to this mistake and move on.

If Scott can learn some consistency, he can be a great asset to the club, I've never seen such a hot/cold hitter in my life.
He is one of the many question marks on the team this year, and one I'll be watching.
If he hasn't been able to tame his wild swings from super bat to dud by the AS break, he should be shopped around.

Roy -

If you wait to trade him until he once again demonstrates he can't be consistent, his value will be materially diminished. Now is the time to act while one can speculate on the upside.

The last starting short-stop our system produced was Cal Ripken! Currently, the closest thing to short-stop of the future hasn't even reached single A yet.

You have to give, to get. Our system is stockpiled with outfielders/DH types. Trading Scott, and, I reiterate, dumping Wigginton, for a legitimate short-stop prospect, is an excellent move.

I like what Not Brooks said about Luke Scott some time back. NB said that Scott is so streaky that when he goes 0 for 12 Trembley needs to sit him down before that snowballs into a 4 for 52. He is not the type of player that a manager can send out there everday and hope he swings his way out of a slump, or he can kill you for six weeks.
I agree with NB and would add that as a result of Luke Scott's jekyll/Hyde nature he is not likely to ever amass 550 AB's.

tony = nb

"What...!? is it open season on

Luke-bashing?

I hope he finds where all of you hide and f-ing shoots you.

Jerks."

Posted by: Bear the Birdfan | March 2, 2010 3:09 PM

Can't you make a statement without wishing for violence on people you disagree with? This is baseball, for crying out loud. It's bad enough to have that level of vitriol in political discussions.

Wayne,

Do you have any idea what it takes to get a "legit SS prospect"?

2005, the Marlins traded All-Star starting pitcher Josh Beckett and All-Star 3b Mike Lowell for AA shortstop Hanley Ramirez.

So, that would likely mean the O's trading one of the stud pitching prospects (Matusz/Tillman/Erbe/Britton) plus Scott and Tejada/Atkins whichever is doing better. Nobody wants Wigginton.

If the O's are a step from contending, AND all of the pitching prospects continue their development making one or two expendable, AND Josh Bell or Snyder develop to the point they're ready to man one of the corners -- then I would endorse such a trade.

afterp,

Your points are well taken. But, weren't the Marlins on one of their many "salary dump" missions back in 2005? Also, I would rate Ramirez as well above a "legi SS prospect."
and more like "can't miss." For can't miss, we' d probably have to part with either Erbe and/or Britton which is unlikely to happen--unless we're talking someone who invokes images of D. Jeter.

I still maintain, Scott is expendable and I'd like to see him traded straight up for a legit prospect down as low as rookie league. Again, I like Scott but he is not, nor is he likely to become, an everyday player for a contending team--which we one day hope to be.