See you there, Dr. Schmuck. I shall be wearing a stylish Totes rain poncho. they better get this game in -- it's my last of ST and I want to see baseball!

I am sure not to resolve any arguments pertaining to The Plan. But I thought I might supply some sobering thoughts for those who think building from within as the one and only solution.

Since 1998, the Orioles have drafted 597 players. Only 39 of those players ever played in the majors in any capacity for any team regardless if they were signed by the Orioles or not.

That is one player shy of a 40-man roster. (One quick note: Doug Slaten is actually counted twice on both ends of the 39-for-597 equation as he was drafted by the O's in 1998 and 1999.)

The Yankees by comparison is little different. They are 42-for-604 in that same span.

There is one interesting difference between the two teams. All 42 of the Yankee draft picks were drafted between 1998 and 2006. The Orioles have two picks from 2007 and 2008 (Wieters and Matusz) that have major league experience already.

When the Yankees spend money, they do more than just bolster their major league line-up. They front-load enough to allow their minor leaguers to develop more completely (i.e. the Yankee prospects have their growing pains where they should happen -- in the minors).

While the Orioles are ahead, 2-0, in 2007-08 draftees with MLB experience, the Yankees are ahead, 8-6, in 2005-08 draftees with MLB experience.

That's the O'Riole McTruth on St. P's Day.

By the way if you're wondering why the Yankees have slightly more draft picks, it is because they get supplementary picks for losing free agents as well as for players not signed.

Unless Tejada and Millwood have a glorious resurgence in the orange and black, the O's will not receive anything for them when they become free agents. By contrast, the Yankees received a draft pick for Luis Vizcaino and two for Tom Gordon -- all first rounders. And the Yankees will receive a draft pick for "losing" Johnny Damon.

Shoer-sightedness is correctable.

The Orioles will suck until PA sells the team. No magic plan is going to fix anything.

Do we deserve a better team..yes Is this a business...yes. Do I give a rat's a$@ anymore...not really.

It isn't about us. We love or at least loved the Orioles. I'm not sure my kids care...That's the real tragedy.

So what you're saying is Wasp...is that AM has more MLB ready draft picks than the Yankees since he's been here....but the Yankees had more before he came here.

So what you're saying is AM is doing a good job?

And that should read short-sightedness ... the e and r are to the left of the r and t.

Aieet.

I have never attacked or supported MacPhail. Having players rushed to the majors is not conclusive in any way.

What I said does suggest getting players only from within does not work, and almost can not work. If MacPhail truly supports this course of action as being the end-all, then he will be doomed to failure.

Pete -

Any chance Reimold starts in Norfolk this year, while he continues to recover and works on his bat?

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Pete's reply: I doubt it, but he's really struggling right now.

Yeah waspman, it's obvious that Phil Hughes got plenty of time developing in the minors and hasn't had to go back and forth, switching roles... oh wait....

And Ian Kennedy sure was ready for the show.... oh wait....

And good thing they didn't have to have any stupid "rules" for Joba Chamberlain, or jerk him around between being a starter or reliviever... oh wait...

Yeah, the Yankees sure do a great job developing their draft picks. That's why they're so good, not because they have four player who will make over $20 million this year, and half the players in their daily lineup and 80% of their starting rotation makes $10 million per year.

Waspman, that is an unpopular opinion here on the blog where the Andy Macphail war room spins 24/7 to justify his pitiful performance when it comes to improving the won/loss record of the team. You see, Andy is kicking the can down the road year after year, doing P.A.''s bidding to squeeze the last dime out of the franchise. I would list my top 5 reasons why the Orioles don't sign or trade for marquee talent but I don't want to create a disturbance in the force. I'll already catch hell for this snarky post...The blog police will hunt me down shortly.

waspman:

Nice post. Do you have the numbers on the Marlins and Twins? That would be great...

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Good read Pete. I wasn't concerned about Millwood's poor first starts. However, I'm not really expecting much from him during the season, except to log some innings. He'll probably go about 13-12 with a 4.85 era. I do have a question, though. Do some or all of these pitchers come into camp completely rusty? I mean is Millwood working his arm 100% back into shape just in spring training or do they start getting ready months earlier? I guess they can't be throwing all year around and have to rest their arms, but allowing this little time to get all the way back seems a bit risky. Thanks.

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Pete's reply: Most of them throw for a few weeks before spring training, but that doesn't replicated competition. Some guys come in very sharp and some have to work their pitches into shape.

OMG, you can buy wholesale apparel on the internet??? And from some unknown scrub ass website instead of an established retailer??? AWESOME!!! After buying some Mike shoes and a Quada bag for my girl, I'm going to claim a fortune from Nigeria! Thank you, internet.

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Pete's reply: Your post entertained me so much, I had to leave up the spam so people would understand what you were talking about.

lin, this is sports discussion blog, not forum for you to pimp your trinkets. Get lost.

Pete
Everbody wants PA to sell the team. To Whom? Unless it's Ripken, it will be someone from out of town. Than it will be where are the O's going to move.

O's in 2010 = 97-65. ALCS champs! You heard it here 1st.

Sorry, Jim, I only have them penciled in for 95 wins, and losing to the the Royals in the ALCS due to Matsuz's torn rotator cuff. Still, a good year.

You guys are crazy. O's will WIN the WS this year. Kevin, Jeremy, Brian, Chris... how can you top that. Beckett Shmeckett. CC, shmii shmii. c'mon. O's rule. 125 regular season wins!

Way to go guys. Keep the faith.

Waspman -

So the Yankees' successes versus the Orioles' failures is due to 3 additional draft picks that made it to the majors in an 11-year span?

Wow, that is truly amazing. If only Syd Thrift and Mike Flanagan had promoted 3 more guys, we'd be on top of the Al East......

Andy,

You're doing a fine job. Profits are up. Comcast, WJZ, 105.7. WMAR, the Sun - all are on board. MASN rocks (thanks MLB). We will be, again, a top 5 profitable team. Screw the wins (and fans).

About the relatively few baseball draftees who make it to MLB:

MLB clubs need more that 150 active players, to fill 6 complete teams. So about 15 percent of a club's players are in MLB. For that reason, the MLB draft goes 50 rounds, the NFL 7, and the NBA 2. That's 50-7-2. And if every team had 50 draftees making the MLB club every year, they'd have to turn the entire roster over twice. Maybe have 25 guys before the All-Star Break, release all of them, bring in 25 more for the rest of the season, release them, and do it again every year. Pretty silly, but that's why the whole idea of examining the 'success' rate of draftees is silly.

O's Fan in Montana:
That's not a bad prediction, IMO.
Millwood's averages from the past 5 years:
11.4-11.4, 4.26 ERA, 189 IP, 208 H, 135 K, 58 BB, 21 HR, 1.416 WHIP.

That's on teams that averaged a record of 82-80.
His record with a team that is most comparable to the expected 2010 O's season(based on record alone):
10-14, 5.16 ERA, 172 IP, 213 H, 123 K, 67 BB, 19 HR, 1.622 WHIP
The '07 Rangers were 75-87. They were outscored 816-844.

There are a lot of variables that I haven't figured in, but I'm not Bill James and I don't have all day to calculate them. But that's about what I expect the Orioles to finish as this year, so it's reasonable to expect a similar performance from Millwood.

So, the 13-12 with a 4.85 ERA prediction is a bit optimistic based solely past performance on a predicted similar team. But if players could be rated by past performance without factoring luck, age increase, hot/cold streaks, home field ratings etc. etc., there wouldn't be any Albert Belle type signings.

But as wayne can tell you, I'm of the optimist persuasion, albeit with realism right there with the optimism. So I'm hoping for the best from Millwood, but preparing for the worst.

waspman,

that was a very good fact filled post. i honestly couldnt tell if you were a kool aider or not so dont let the mcfailers give u any guff

dont get me wrong, i know that you need to use the draft, but u should also use FA, its legal and your competitors are doing it

The Orioles are like a meal filled with appetizers but theres never any meat or main course (for you vegans)

the thing about the draft is that its definitely the CHEAP way to build

Everyone says the O's tried to build thru FA b4, but have they really ? I dont count second tier mediocre FA's as the proper way to use FA

Sure they've overspent on the Omar Daals and David Seguis of the world but they've never tried bringing in a top notch FA since the 90's

One things for certain, the Orioles have made 100's of millions of dollars during the streak.

At least ppl no longer think that we're "saving it up" for someone like they were in previous yrs. I think even the most casual fan assumed that money would be used to bring Tex here. Last yr we were supposed to take our lumps for the good of this yr and beyond. It certainly doesnt appear to be the case. A wasted yr in vain

The fans patience isnt endless. At some point even the koolaiders will catch on. As inconceivable as it to anyone who went to OP {during its heyday), you may see crowds of 5 -8 k

A prospect unimaginable a decade ago

"I'll already catch hell for this snarky post..."

Gil, I'll give you hell not for your opinion, but because of your self-important rants. I read blog comments for opinion, not for self-serving announcements. State your opinion, and then let other people speak their mind. your act is TIRESOME.

waspman..... I think your thesis is flawed.... but your stats were are an example of how difficult it is is to reach the MLB's. Also, keep in mind that International Players are not part of the draft, but consist of close to 50% of MILB'ers.

Sorry Rick, the post wasn't meant to offend you. It was meant to tweek my friends Lucky and Ken.

I absolutely favor using the draft and player development. It cannot be the only course of action, however.

My gathering of facts was not intended to shine the light on MacPhail positively or negatively. I would have needed to research his earlier picks to try to do that. I did stumble across an eye-opening, positive fact on Pat Gillick most people (including me) did not know, but that wasn't what my post was about either.

I don't do this for a living. It would have been interesting to select different teams -- heck, all of the teams. I had a few spare moments so I selected one other team that is in stark contrast to the Orioles -- the Yankees.

In response to one misguided reply, the Yankees have had seven more draft picks than the Orioles. Three was the number difference of those who made it. By the way, the Orioles selected Doug Slaten and Brandon Fahey twice each so the Oriole stats are overblown by two.

I wanted to see how a very different team fared in drafting players who would make it to The Big's. The fact the Yankees got more extra picks and the major source of those picks were losing free agents (the other side of the coin we usually think about when thinking Yankees).

By contrast, the Orioles received two extra picks for Randy Myers (1998), two each for Eric Davis, Rafael Palmeiro, Roberto Alomar (1999), one for Alan Mills (1999), two for Arthur Rhodes (2000), and two for Mike Mussina (2001). Four of those extra picks became players who played in the majors including Brian Roberts.

This was a benefit of having a free agent I had never considered. A player signs and (hopefully) contributes. He helps to allow player development so draft choices aren't rushed through the system prematurely. He can be traded for talent. Now, I see he can go to another team at the end of his contract (like Johnny Damon) and your team will get an extra pick or two.

Signing a free agent at the end of his career has far less positive effect. He is less likely to contribute. If he does, it will be shorter term. He had less or no trade value. Your team may be his final stop so forget the supplementary picks.

The Orioles have had only two supplementary picks for losing a player to free agency since 2001 -- both for losing BJ Ryan to Toronto in 2006.

By the way, the Yankees are known for their payroll but they certainly weren't short on home-grown players when they were winning under Joe Torre.

Back to the point at hand, of the 39 Oriole draft choices who made it to the majors in some capacity:

2 were drafted twice and counted twice.

4 were the results of being a supplementary pick of some sort.

5 were drafted by someone else after the Orioles drafted them and didn't sign them.

8 never played for the Orioles.

11 did not play for anyone in MLB in 2009.

Thirty-nine players minus two duplicates minus 11 who did not play for anyone in '09 is 26 -- barely enough to fill a roster. These 26 players would have some interesting names but it would leave one to wonder how good the make-up is.

You would have to draft extremely well over a 12-year span to be able to build a team this one way and this one way only.