I think Bill James has broken into the cough medicine again because he's got it bass ackwards.

Seriously, something just doesn't seem right about all that. I think all the stats have gone to his head. Those young guns ain't Daniel Cabrera, Radhamas Liz, Garrett Olson, and the like.

I can't figure out where James' cut-off is. Is it 26 or 27? For instance, on the Tigers, he rates Verlander #2 behind Cabrera in their top 5, but does not list him in the top 20 players. I understand that Mark Reynolds (#20 on the list) has a lot of power, but I'd take Verlander over him any day of the week. Especially when James himself is placing such importance on the O's not developing hard throwing pitchers...

Ha, Bill James is the same guy who thought last year that Trembley would be a darkhorse for MOY.

He was good once upon a time, now he's just a Red Sox shill.

Here we go..........

Now everyone is going to do their best to discredit one of the best baseball minds of a generation.... Someone who has taken baseball evaluation to a new and uncharted level.

This isn't just some lune people. There is hardly a more respected baseball mind now, or possibly ever.

Take what he says to heart and stop listening to the hype that has been coming out of the warehouse for 3 years now.

I guess the prevailing comebacks will include words like 'negative', 'naysayers', etc..... So be it!

Thanks Bill James! You've made the case MUCH better than I ever could!

Now back to the Oriole Spin Doctors!

Anyone familiar with Bill James' work has to respect him. I'm interested in his opinion, but he is only one guy and he views the game thru the lenses of statistics, which like anything else has it's limitations. I would think stats are not the strongest tool for evaluating young minor league talent because players change leagues frequently and sample sizes are smaller.

I'm not discrediting Bill here - but what is his method? It's a black box. We are probably comparing apples to oranges. One thing I don't understand - the Yankees rose from 29 last year to 7. Huh????

Does anyone have a link to the story?

wayne - I don't want to get into the whole prospect argument again. I just have a question about your philosopy: How is it that you completely agree with Bill James here, but when Baseball America ranks Matusz 5th, Bell 37th, Britton 63rd and Arrieta 99th, you fall back on the "they're just names!" argument?

When I just started reading the comments, I knew that Wayne's post was him after reading half of his first sentence. You are so predictable and annoying dude...stop following the Orioles and go become a Yankee or Red Sox fan. Your life will be much easier.

Let's get it right before we start slinging misled assumptions....

He's talking about Young Major League Players, not young prospects still in the minors. Meaning he's not refering to the farm system.....

Matusz, Riemold and Wieters were all called up last year and were, at least in my opinion, successfull. These three players were already projected to be solid Major Leaguer's when they held prospect status. Plus, there are going to be more call ups later on this year. So who's to say where the O's will end up on the list next year? We still haven't seen Arrieta, Bell, Patton etc.....

All about semantics... leave it to wayne to giddily use it to proclaim the O's suck and they need to WIN WIN WIN!!! Good job, sport.

Notice what he is writing about: the crop of young major league talent ("he ranks the Orioles inventory of young major league players 20th in the major leagues"). He is not commenting on the depth of the farm system. ("“We begin by assigning to every player in major league baseball an “Inventory Value”,” James says, “based on his age and major league performance. We figure two scores for every major league player, an “Established Value Score” and a “Youth Score”, then we put these together into a “Youth/Value Score” or Inventory Value.”) Further, this has nothing to do with the current state of the Farm System as Adam Jones never played a day in the O's farm system.

So what does this mean? The O's haven't developed a great deal of talent that has converted at the ML level to this point. They still have plenty of young talent, it just hasn't produced at high levels in the ML's yet (Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, etc). He's measuring what has happened, not so much the players potential. He's a stats guy, not a scouting guy.

Just give them until next season when some of the youth make the jump to star status. Markakis being 10th is pretty remarkable in that James' Stats think higher of him than the soon to be $30 mil man.

How the Yankees jumped is beyond me... they just get older and older through free agency. Guess I will have to by the Handbook!

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/26/2010-farm-system-rankings/

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/01/farm.systems/1.html

Keith Law ranks the O's 6th (link requires subscription, so BOO, you can't see it...)

Shamrock

You're actually right on point. Although you and I will be told we're missing the point, but you are right about what Bill James was supposed to be analyzing. If you look at his top-20, they're all All Stars or potential All Stars and have been in the majors for 4 or more years.

He's not calling the O's prospects a bust, so it's a bit unfair for anyone to automatically assume he's trying to say that.

Wayne has a point, and that is not everyone sees the Oriole youth movement through the Rose colored glasses that some of you on the blog do.

Look, the Orioles farm system was in ruins for years. So Andy Macphail comes in, ignores the Major League club and works on the farm system. Anything he did would have been an improvement but some think he is the second coming for making routine moves. We have some prospects, but so what, everybody else does too. I tend to agree more with Bill James than the people on the board who are not objective{other than Not Brooks}

The real story here is that Macphail is entering his 4th season as GM and the Orioles won 64 games last year. He continues to deftly move forward expectations for a winning season. If you listened to his comments today they were a continuation of the non committal political physchobabble he is known for.

Macphail had a chance this past offseason to show whether he was serious or not about adding some top talent to the team. End Result? Garrett Atkins, Kevin Millwood, Miguel{actually I'm 36 and my B12 bottle is empty}Tejada. Fans should be outrgaged, not building him a shrine. I say attendance this year will drop down to nearly a million five. Now Macphail has the fans measuring progress by how much this losing season will be better than last year's losing season.

Shamrock,

Great post. You are 100% correct and for that matter so is Bill James. If the players in the ML were better than 20th, the '09 team would have been better. As Bill Parcels said "you are what your record says you are". So this is nothing new and nothing we didn't already know. Let's see what James says next year after Weiters, Matusz and Bergeson are eligible for his list.

nb,

Why? Because Bill James and Baseball America aren't even in the same league. I'm sure Baseball America personnel will even admit they look up to James if you ask them.

You can use Baseball America to rank prospects, and I can use MLB. The prospect sources are all over the map. Bill James however, has been THE baseball statistical/analytical bible for a very long time. And you know that! I'm surprised at you with this one nb.

Justin,

I'm only annoying because I'm right - and that just ticks you off. Don't be mad at me though Justin. Be mad at the O's. Or at least demand that they WIn baseball games.

Sham,

I never say the Orioles 'suck'. Have never said it - never will! I'm not 12! All I do is accurately portray their losing and their reasons for losing. And by the way, the fact that you used Keith Law to make your case..... Come on man! Are you serious!

You take keith, I'll stick with Bill!

Gil,

So spot on! FanFest was something to do inside during the winter. When the real season hits, the stands will be a sea of green - for all the reasons you just stated. You and I don't need to be Bill James to see what's happening.

Gil

I tend to refer to James, Fangraphs, and Baseball Prospectus when trying to agrue some the half truths on this blog. But that's when my arguement gets totally discarded because the stats I refer to (such as UZR, WARP, BAbip) are "too goofy" to comprehend.

Shamrock,

Great post. You are 100% correct and for that matter so is Bill James. If the players in the ML were better than 20th, the '09 team would have been better. As Bill Parcels said "you are what your record says you are". So this is nothing new and nothing we didn't already know. Let's see what James says next year after Weiters, Matusz and Bergeson are eligible for his list.

Gil, there you go again.

MacPhail has been here two and a half years, he started right before the draft of 2007. As you said, he inherited a farm system that was a laughing stock. You don't really believe anyone could have rebuilt it any quicker, do you?

And who would you have had him add this past off-season? Did you really want them to sign Holliday for 120 over seven? Bay? Lackey? Figgins? Sure, they could have helped, but in the big picture, do you really think their upside is better than what we have coming up thru the system? It is quite possible Reimold will match Bay or Holliday's production, now that he has a half season under his belt and a full season to look forward to. Bell, Snyder, or Warings potential far exceeds Figgins and no offense to Lackey, I'd rather have any number of Orioles young pitchers.

The guys MacPhail signed are perfect. Atkins is a veteran who has known success at the ML level and now that he's in a new environment and trying to impress a new team and its fan base, will work damn hard to get back to his former level of success. Why just assume that he's done? At least give him some time to make sure.

Miggy is a proven veteran, so is Gonzalez, so is Millwood. No, gil, they are not Palmer, Murray, or Cuellar, but these are solid players who are better than what was there last year at this time.

And what I really don't understand is when you say, "So Andy Macphail comes in, ignores the Major League club and works on the farm system."

Are you so blinded by 12 years of futility that you don't see that when you fill a farm system with blue chip talent, that talent eventually works its way up to the big club and that big club gets better?

This isn't George Steinbrenner getting Bert Campanaris to play SS for Columbus at the age of 38, ya know. These are huge upside young players who need, expect and deserve to have the chance to make it, and make it big.

And just so you know, when I worked in the media, I had numerous opportunities to talk with Bill James, and let's face it, without a MA in mathematics from MIT, some of his formulas are a little hard to really analyze. I'll stick with the meat and potatoes stats, thank you very much.

Oh, and when you say you expect attendance to drop to 1.5 million, I think you are saying more about the fans here than you are about the team. This team has everything you could want, young hungry players out to prove they belong, and veterans out to prove they still do. If there was any team coming off 12 years of losing that is worth supporting, this team is it.

All I can say is, keep the faith, my brothers and sisters, and let the good times roll.

I have nothing against James, but "one of the best baseball minds in a generation" ranks Nick Markakis ahead of Joe Mauer???? Love Nick, but seriously he's better than the league's MVP? Funny most "experts" consider Mauer to be one of the 5 best players in the league.

Wayne has a point, and that is not everyone sees the Oriole youth movement through the Rose colored glasses that some of you on the blog do.

Look, the Orioles farm system was in ruins for years. So Andy Macphail comes in, ignores the Major League club and works on the farm system. Anything he did would have been an improvement but some think he is the second coming for making routine moves. We have some prospects, but so what, everybody else does too. I tend to agree more with Bill James than the people on the board who are not objective{other than Not Brooks}

The real story here is that Macphail is entering his 4th season as GM and the Orioles won 64 games last year. He continues to deftly move forward expectations for a winning season. If you listened to his comments today they were a continuation of the non committal political physchobabble he is known for.

Macphail had a chance this past offseason to show whether he was serious or not about adding some top talent to the team. End Result? Garrett Atkins, Kevin Millwood, Miguel{actually I'm 36 and my B12 bottle is empty}Tejada. Fans should be outrgaged, not building him a shrine. I say attendance this year will drop down to nearly a million five. Now Macphail has the fans measuring progress by how much this losing season will be better than last year's losing season.

Posted by: Gil
~~~~~~~~~~~
Taking your points in order:

No one has to tell us that not everyone sees the O's through rose colored glasses. We are TOTALLY aware of the posters who see them through excrement colored glasses. The difference is that you think your glasses are less colored than ours.

Second coming is YOUR characterization applying YOUR spin to what is actually said here. He is doing what needs to be done. He is doing it in an organized professional, competent manner. After the way this organization was mismanaged for a decade, why are you NOT ecstatic with a true, proven highly thought of baseball man running the team in a professional manner?

Not all prospects are equal. Everyone drafts someone so everyone has prospects. O's had prospects through the lean years. NOT everyone has the number one rated prospect in the whole game as many had Wieters rated. Not everyone has highly rated prospects in the waves the O's do. Not everyone has as many major league ready prospects as the Orioles. You are no more objective than anyone else . . . Spinning the opposite direction is still spin.

You do not get to dictate what the "REAL" story is. No one declared you king or god or dictator. Who gives a cr*p what PR fluff MacPhail says? I get my biggest laughs from fans who take Peter's interviews and press conference coverage and micro analyze every word looking for hidden messages or take whatever platitudes the players spout and think it is a reflection on their ethics or makeup. I bet if you play MacPhail's interview backwards, it says "Flanny is dead" (ok is anyone other than Peter old enough to catch the Beatles Abbey Road reference?) MacPhail is spinning because it is part of his job. Why are you and Wayne doing it?

Fans should be neither outraged OR building him a shrine. The fruits of Andy's labors just started to arrive last season. That is amazingly fast in baseball where UNLIKE football, first round picks don't contribute immediately as a rule. Yet YOUR little club is outraged; no one in the other club is building him a shrine. Why cant you understand that some of us have the patience to see a building program through and you don't have the patience to wait for microwave popcorn to finish popping. Some of us see the improvement and applaud it and others see positive things happen and piss and moan that they really aren't positive or that they aren't enough. Time will tell how well things will work out.

Ignoring for a second the ability all of you nattering nabobs of negativity share to tell the future, this is typical talking out both sides of your mouth. On the one hand you and your club of kindergarten kids demand that progress be measured in wins and losses and here you are out the other side of your mouth whining that we are going to measure the coming season by how much better it is than last year. How the eff else would you measure a season? By how much better it is than the last season Wee WIllie Keeler played (ok, even Peter and I are not old enough to remember that season)?

Wayne spins as hard as anyone wearing rose colored glasses spins. Just because you approve of the direction of his spin doesn't mean he doesn't spin.

ken, there you go again.......

Allow me to let you in on a little secret that's not really a secret anymore...... The fans no longer care about young hungry players out to prove they belong, and veterans out to prove they still do anymore.

To the fans, it's pure bs! And that's not saying the fans don't see a few good young players being developed on the team ken, because they do.

It's just that MOST fans understand that every team has good young players, thus they're no longer buying into the idea that the O's have something others don't.

All that 'hungry players' bs goes right out the window once the team begins to lose ken. At that point, MOST fans no longer care about the youngster trying to show he belongs. That's when fans stop showing up and that's when masn's and 1057's ratings go down.

I wish I was more like you. I'd love to simply go out to the park to watch young hungry players.

Problem is, that's what Bowie and Frederick are for......not Baltimore!

Here's everything you need to know about Bill James: He just ranked the league's reigning MVP, Joe Mauer, as the 16th best young player in the big leagues. Not even the 16th best player overall. The 16th best young player.

Let's not worry too much about James' assessment of the Orioles when he can't even spot a reigning MVP in a crowd. (And no offense to our good friend Nick Markakis, but he's not as valuable as Joe Mauer.)

By the way, Oakland (and Billy Beane personally) have all but sworn by the James method for roughly a decade now, and how many World Series rings do they have to show for it?

Oh, that's right.

Dylan,

Oakland may not win WS, but they're a small market team who often plays 'meaningful games'. I love how people like to point to only the world series, when it's really about having a competitive team to root for.

But if you want World Series Dylan, look no further than the Red Sox. How many years did they go without? And when did they hire Bill James?

Just saying....

oh man, check this out. the whole gang's back. i love it. not brooks, wayne, gil, ken, shamrock, bms, etc. all of the old favorites.

makes me nostalgic for when we were all doing the same thing and yelling at each other two months ago. even still, i missed seeing the usual cast of characters around here. but now that everyone's back in the mix for spring training, maybe it's time to start breaking out a few posts myself.

the one thing that has me excited, besides the start of a great new season, is that we might actually get some closure around here for once. those of us that have been on this blog for over a year or more have been yelling about the same stuff forever. wayne says we stink. shamrock says we're gonna be great. notbrooks pulls out some crazy stats to show that they're both wrong. Gil brings in the pessimistic voice of reason. some other warehousers, like myself, get too excited about every piece of news. etc. etc. and then we argue and make the same points over and over again. and we never get anywhere because the O's are always in the same spot.

but not anymore. this season really is gonna make some of us right and some of us wrong. i know it's not the last season that the O's will take to the diamond. but this summer, they're either gonna get better or they won't. this year, we're really gonna see if the plan is moving us in the right direction or not. and for all of the relentless yelling and screaming that we do on this blog, we're finally gonna get to see a glimpse of whose been right and whose been wrong this whole time. For that, as much as for anything else, I'm psyched to get this season underway. Lets Go O's!!!

And Go Terps Wednesday Night!! Beat Duke!!!

when you rate any young player ahead of joe mauer you don't have any credibility. i don't care if you're bill james, jessie james or king james. end of story.

I've been around a long long time following the O's even before 1954. I've never heard of Bill James. Again, in the words of the great Charley Eckman "all the "experts" are from out of town"

My opinion of Bill James is best summed up in one word: BULLPUCKERS! He has been on the payroll of the Boston Red Sox for quite some time. His title is Senior Adviser/Baseball Operations.
http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/front_office.jsp?c_id=bos

Whatever he says will be ignored!

Hey, enzo, the old favorites might be back, but, my friend, you're still the best!! And if the Terps get some inside play, they just might beat Duke.

What a Wednesday it'll be, Terps/Devils and the Caps are back against Ryan Miller and the Sabres. It'll do until April.

lucky horseshoes, so well said!

wayne, my old chum, though I bow to your greatness, I humbly disagree, to your first post. But what you said to dylan, that's what I've been saying. I don't expect a series win, just competitive baseball. And as these guys learn and get better, the probability of competitive baseball increases exponentially.

I don't think you'd be happy with another year or two of what we had here before while the hotshot prospects sit in Froederick, Norfolk or Bowie, gaining nothing. I'd rather they be up here to learn and take their lumps.

And unlike so many of you, I think Baltimore is better than that. I think this city will embrace the kids. There are many astute baseball fans here, yes, even you, wayne, and I think they will see what is going on and appreciate it and support it. I'll say this for you, wayne-oh, at least you are out there, putting your money where your mouth is.

As it is, the Lanch and Wings are duking it out on VS, so I'm off.

Hasta la vista, baby and keep the faith!

enzo... great post!

The worst scenerio however, will be 74 wins. I can just hear it npw.....

'Wow, 10 game improvement - we're on our way'....

Come on O's, give me 84 or 64..... just not 74!

ken,

Sorry, but you're asking too much of Baltimore fans. They'll embrace the kids, but only if the team is winning. Sure, they'll be there opening day. It's that summer midweek evening against the A's that will tell the tale....

Peter-

Bill James is to Baseball what Rivals is to College Hoops recruiting.

For one thing, if the O's lack anywhere, it is IN position prospects.
They have Snyder and Bell, and thats just about it over the High A level.
However, with pitching prospects, they totally have the market.

I have heard some say that Erbe would be MOST teams top pitching prospect, yet with the O's, he is like 6th or 7th on the list.

Bill James is on acid or something.

Peter-
Let me clarify, Rivals and Bill James both suck.

People can say what they want. And yes, Bill James can be controversial and is often second guessed.

But just ask Pete everyone. Ask him who the most respected in this field is.

Then beat Pete up... not me!

Didn't tell us anything we didn't already know.

Hitters:

Markakis will never be a power hitter. Roberts is average, and will end up being a 270 career hitter. Weiters is clumsy, slow and overblown. Jones can be great if he can be coached well. Reimold has the potential to be a average to good player. There is no hitter in the minors that will make you say wow.

Pitching:

Matusz is a finesse pitcher that will never go anywhere unless he develops 4 good pitches and drastic change of speeds. I see him being average at best.

Bergeson looked great in his first year. Has the potential to be good, but will never be a 20 game winner (especially if with the O's). A number 2 or 3 in the rotation at best.

Guthrie was a one year wonder.

Milwood and Berken - I'm not even gonna bother.

Tilman and Hernandez - Throwers, not pitchers

Arrietta - who the heck knows

Overall assessment: The O's under Angelos will never come close to holding the Yankees and Redsox jockstraps.

Ryan -

In all due respect, please read into it further. The list Bill James compiled is about YOUNG PLAYERS WHO HAVE MADE IT TO MLB, not prospects. The players you mentioned don't even belong in the conversation.

For All -

Here's a list of the Top 20 that I was able to find:

1, Felix Hernandez, Seattle (23)
2, Prince Fielder, Milwaukee (25)
3, Hanley Ramirez, Florida (25)
4, Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (25)
5, Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (22)
6, Tim Lincecum, San Francisco (25)
7, Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (23)
8, Justin Upton, Arizona (21)
9, Miguel Cabrera, Detroit (26)
10, Nick Markakis, Baltimore (25)
11, Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers (24)
12, Dustin Pedroia, Boston (25)
13, Zack Greinke, Kansas City (25)
14, Ryan Zimmerman, Washington (24)
15, David Wright, New York Mets (26)
16, Joe Mauer, Minnesota (26)
17, Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (24)
18, Adam Lind, Toronto (25)
19, Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta (23)
20, Mark Reynolds, Arizona (25)

Notice these players are those who are All Stars or have had All Star numbers. Maybe the title Young Talent Inventory is misleading, but it has nothing to with prospects. And on a side note, it would be a bit unfair to compare Bergesen, Wieters, Riemold, Tillman and Matusz with this group - at least until they have a yfull year of experience.

Asbestos King,
Are you serious? That's one of the lamest and error filled assessment I've seen. You must follow Bowling closer than you do baseball.

Get out of the house seamhead and watch some ball!

4, Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (25)
5, Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco (22)
8, Justin Upton, Arizona (21)
10, Nick Markakis, Baltimore (25)
11, Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers (24)
14, Ryan Zimmerman, Washington (24)
16, Joe Mauer, Minnesota (26)

I think that says everything that needs to be said about this Bill James list. All of these players ranked above Mauer don't put up numbers, except stolen bases and Braun's homer totals, that Mauer can't. Figure in Mauer doing it at catcher and it goes from laughable to a complete joke.

I imagine the Yankees jump for "young talent" is based upon the rescent Granderson aquisition and the additional MLB stats but up by guys like Phil Hughes in the last year and Robinson Cano in the last year. Prior to this year they got almost no production what so ever out of anyone under the age of 30.

Also Wayne I love how you sit here and sing the praises of an organization like the Oakland A's....while ripping the Orioles for being cheap and not commited to winning. If the O's had traded or let go HALF the stud pitchers that have passed through that A's team you would be ripping AM a new one for being unwilling to spend and do what it takes to win. The Orioles are literally building EXACTLY like the A's try to build, just the A's have the fortunate of playing in the AL West. Baltimore could go .500 in the AL West this year. It's weak.

Ken and Lucky,

First Lucky, you are showing your age when you start using old Spiro Agnew anecdotes to make a point...Nattering Nabobs? you must be as old as me. {Might be time for us to consult Obama care to schedule our end of life counseling sessions} Look guys, I am not negative, I am telling the truth, you just think it's negative because you don't want to hear it. Put down your Oriole pennants for a minute and listen to the voice of reason. Macpahil is entering his 4th SEASON{June 3, 2007] and the Orioles are still a last place team. Ken, we argued all winter about who the Orioles could have added so don't start that again. Atkins is a joke, on the downside of his career and is rated -5 by Baseball prospectus.

I will repeat one last time for the hearing impaired such as you two, what the Orioles should have done in the offseason in order to compete..A big right handed bat, a power hitting first baseman with a recent track record of success, and two established starting pitchers.

According to the Andy Macphail apologist handbook, here is why he didn't do the above{pick any combination of excuses}

1. They quality FA's aren't worth the money
2. They might block the kids.
3. They don't really want to come here anyhow.
4. We can't trade our precious prospects.
5. It was never about{fill in the future year}anyhow.

You are correct, I am disgusted with Andy Macphail and his incrementalist approach. He has failed to bring winning baseball to Baltimore and that's why he was hired. Or was it? Maybe it was just to keep the payroll and expectations low, and fill Angelos pockets. If that was the case, his tenure has been an unmitigated success.

Bill James is a baseball statistician. He is a very smart man, but he not a scout, nor a GM, or even an instructor. Remind us again why we should take his young talent evaluations as gold? What remarkable talents did he discover in his career?

This guy is insane. He's dissappointed in the Orioles inability to develop young pitchers? What team is he watching? Bergesen, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, Erbe? This is one of the best collection of young arms I can recall.

Here's the Bill James and Trembley Q & A:

Recently on his web site's Q&A section, Bill James, the father of Sabermetrics, mentioned Dave Trembley in response to two questions:

Q: Hey Bill, I have two related questions. If you were running your own team and a genie offered you your choice of any manager ever to run your team as a gift, who would you pick? Also who is/was your favorite manager? Any particular reasons? My answers are Weaver and Davey Johnson respectively. Thanks.
Asked by: Henry F.
Answered: May 12, 2009

A: You know, I really don't have an answer for you. I try to discipline myself not to judge managers, because I don't have any rational criteria to make judgments except in marginal cases. But I would say I have been very impressed with Dave Trembley in Baltimore.

Q: OK, what impresses you about Dave Trembley? Usually, it's hard to be impressed with a .425 manager. (For readers: Trembley never played baseball professionally. He started as a high school coach, eventually became a MLB scout and finally a manager.)
Asked by: Trailbzr
Answered: May 12, 2009

A: It's also hard to manage a .425 team without looking like a loser, but he does it. I don't know what I like about him, honestly; I try not to judge managers. But it seems like he stays in the game really well. He's had a lot of young pitchers who struggle with the strike zone, so he's always in danger of letting the game get away from him, but it seems like it doesn't.

http://masnsports.com/2009/05/looking-back-on-last-night.html

3rd comment down.

Gil

good post

Bill James

I am not good at mathematics or a professional talent evaluator , but.........when an expert puts Nick Markakis ahead of Joe Mauer , I have to question his judgement and evaluation skill .

When the Yankee GM praises the O's young talent, Wayne says we're supposed to completely ignore him.

When it appears that you could interpret the finding of Bill James(on Red Sox Payroll) to rank the O's 20th in player development, Wayne' s ON IT LIKE UGLY ON AN APE!

As it has been said James is only rating actual young major leagurers, not prospects. It's a snap shot of the 64 win season in which a whole group of young O's got their first taste of the majors.

And most, like Weiters, Riemold, Matusz, Tillman, Bergenson, Hernandez, etc. didn't even get a full year. So using that ranking to guage their major league impact is useless drivel.

We all knew the O's player development was a shambles before Aug. 2007. And how anybody can count from August 2007 to March of 2010 and turn that into four years on the job is beyound me. McPhail is starting his third spring training with the team. Won't have been on the job 4 years until Aug. 2011. Won't go to his 4th spring training until next feb.

Wow, You guys are getting desperate for bad news...

micah,

So the O's would only be 500 in the al west? So what does that mean they'll do in the al east this season? Wow, they must be worst than I even thought.

You're right though, due to his market size, he can't keep his stud players. But year after year, the guy try's to win. Look it up! I'll take Billy B any day!

Jerry L,

You see... that's the problem right there. Accept for Bergesen's modest success before he got hurt last year, what have those young developing arms you listed accomplished? Some minor league success perhaps? Or maybe getting their names listed as solid prospects? Maybe you heard some dude on a radio talk show say good things about them?

The point is, they've accomplished NOTHING! I hope they are all studs Jerry. Problem is, history PROVES (all around baseball) that maybe 1 or 2 (if we're lucky) may make it to being even average major league starting pitchers.

Now,

Everyone, let's all sing along to the O's name anthem... You know, the one you all like to sing endlessly?

Here we go. A one, and a two........

Weiters, Reimold, Tillman, Bergy, Matusz.... come on everyone - don't lip synch...... Arrieta, Hernandez, Erbe......

Now let's finish strong... Big ending.....

70 losses, 70 losses, 70 losses!

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: 70 losses? Not bad.

You forgot the lyrics? Not good!

70 wins, 70 wins, 70 wins!

That's more like it!

Gil-

I am 51, have no problem with my age and could have just as easily stayed germane while quoting Disraeli who was way before my time (lies, damn lies and statistics)

Bill James is not a great baseball man, he is a statistician (and I dont see myself as qualified to judge how good a statistician he is) who has decided to concentrate his statistical studies on baseball. Personally I believe he has caused more damage to the game than all the 1919 Black Sox combined as people now think they can run an algorhithm and decide how good a player is. This thread and the way that Wayne misapplied what James said is the perfect example of what Disraeli said. Wayne totally twisted the significance of James work. He read the title and assumed what it meant. ANyone who works with statistics will tell you that the first step of using such an anysis is to examine the formulas used so you can understand exactly what is being measured. IT is similar to taking polls and using them to back up your opinion without knowing exactly the questions asked, who they were asked of, etc.

Frankly I am sick of you and Wayne. You are both pompous. self impressed and pretentious. He stated above he is right and we are wrong. You think you get to impose your will and declare what is the "real" story with the implication that none of us should have the temerity to post about anything until you give the topic your seal of approval. Now you insist that your version of the story is the one and only truth which makes all of us liars.

You and Wayne dont have to like it but MacPhail came here to build an organization from the ground up. Not to hire a few expensive free agents, win a few more games and then have it all crumble after a year or two because there was STILL no foundation. You and Wayne are obviously free to dislike this approach, but your dissatisfaction doesn't invalidate the approach. MacPhail is building something that will stand on its own, not fall over from being top heavy. In the past when our "cheapskate" owner put together the highest payroll in baseball, there was no farm system to replace the high priced talent when it retired or had hip trouble. MacPhail is building from the ground up. He has started with a foundation and is building up from there. Last year was the first year that his efforts affected the 25 man roster in Baltimore. No matter how impatient you are, no matter how much you want the team to build your way, this is incredibly fast to start from the bottom and have the resultant talent remake the major league roster.

MY problem with you and Wayne is not that you want wins now. I think it is immature but so what? My problem is your cock sured attitudes that you two are godlike in the perfection and infallibility of your opinions and your dismissive attitude to anyone who disagrees with you. My problem is that you spin and make up facts. None of us know what budget MacPhail is operating with. None of us know if MASN is profitable or not. None of us truly know if ANY price would have brought Tex here. None of us know if the O's inquired with SD about Adrian Gonzalez. My problem is that Wayne refuses to acknowledge progress unless it shows up in the won loss record. I am a real estate investor. When I build something it does not make money until it is rented, however it still increases in value as the construction progresses. A house 90% completed is worth more than a lot with a hole in the ground. You are like the investor who starts whining the minute his check clears and thinks that construction is a week long process or that weather and other unforeseen events don't affect building schedules.

The "TRUTH" of the matter is that I was one of, if not THE first people on here to suggest a trade for Adrian and Kouz.I agree that the Orioles could have done more this past offseason. The difference is that I dont have the hubris of you and Wayne. I don't presume to know what discussions were or were not had. I don't presume to know more about the team's prospects than MacPhail and a whole team of scouts employed by the Orioles. I don't presume that MY way is the only way. You are like Obama thinking that if anyone disagrees with you they just haven't heard you blather enough.

Any and/or all of those issues would be good reasons for team actions. But I don't need to make excuses. Andy does not need me to defend him. I understand why they are building the way they are. You don't. That doesn't make me an apologist. It doesn't make me a liar.

He has failed to bring winning baseball to Baltimore YET. That doesn't mean he is not on schedule with his rebuilding program. You and Wayne just enjoy the back seat and the rest of us will try to ignore you two incessantly screaming "Are we there yet?"

Wayne

Another interesting fact is that A's kept beating the O's every year , even blindfolded , LOL

Lucky,

Thanks for the post!

I'm not going to write a book, but I'll respond to a couple things you said.

First, it's just not true AM built this team from the ground up. He has done some good things, yes. But here are just a few players he did NOT bring into the O's organization:

Brob, Markakis, Weiters (I'll give him an assist though), Bergesen, Reimold,Erbe, Britton, Hernandez. And there are more that I'm not thinking of.

But if you want, continue to give AM credit for everyone - if it makes your case for you, then be my guest!

As for Bill James, I don't know if he's a great baseball man or not. All I know is, he changed the way people look at the game. His stats and analysis became and remain the bible of baseball.

And yes I know perfectly well what he said about the current O's. I guess we'll just have to see...

Lucky, it's ok if you don't like me, although you shouldn't make things so personal. I don't! I may disagree with you, but I respect your views.

Success at the major league level is determined by one thing, and one thing only.... Wins and Losses! Hype, promises and hope no longer matter when the home team loses year after year.

Last year, I never saw so many green empty seats at the yard. The only times there was excitement were opening day, when the Yanks and Sox were in town, and when Weiters made his debut. Otherwise, the place was a shell of what it once was.

This year, it's only going to be worse.... and that's a shame. I hope I'm wrong!

Allan...... So true!

The point is, they've accomplished NOTHING! I hope they are all studs Jerry. Problem is, history PROVES (all around baseball) that maybe 1 or 2 (if we're lucky) may make it to being even average major league starting pitchers.
~~~~~~~~~~~~

You need to take some statistics lessons from your hero. History/statistics proves NOTHING about this specific group of prospects. It suggests that in a large enough sample, the averages should prove out. But it tells us nothing about whether our crop of kids will be more like the Mets class of Pulsipher, Isringhausen and WIlson or more like the Dodgers infield prospects that came up together in the early 70s and were all successful. This is what happens when the uninitiated try to make numbers mean something that they just dont mean.

Still waiting for Wayne's spin on why Bill James is "one of the best baseball minds of a generation" on players but knows nothing about managers after reading James' opinions on Tremblay.

Lucky,

Nice filibuster. Look up the word pompous in the dictionary and I'll bet you will find your picture in there. Lucky, I have said many times that I don't claim to be right, but what I post is my opinion. and my opinion is that the rebuilding plan did not and does not have to be a zero sum game. The product on the field could be improved and rebuilding could go on simultaneously. It is Macphail's approach that is one dimensional and wrong headed in my opinion. Macphail has all his eggs in one rebuilding basket and basically has given the fans the finger as far as putting a competitive product on the field. I think it's not too much to ask as a fan for the team to break Spring Training with a chance to win 82 games. I'm not asking for a championship, but a winning record. There is absolutely no guarantee that Macphail's approach will lead to any eventual long term success. That is just a theory, and my take is just as good as yours, short of any empiracal data.

I don't need to know what discussions that Macphail had or didn't have with agents about trades for marquis talent or with agents for quality FA's. All i have to do is look at the roster. The bottom line is that he could have put a compettive product on the field this year but elected to keep the payroll down. Macphail himself said that he didn't want to pay what Laroche was asking, saying that he thought the price was a little more than he wanted to pay.

Gil,

Try not to let guys like Lucky get to you. Guys like him like to go around saying others are negative, while they themselves are the ones who throw insults around.

People have the right to make their cases, and due to the simple law of averages, they'll be correct at some point. Based on what you've stated, and by what we see however, it's pretty safe to say that point won't be anytime soon!

What they refuse to see is, you and I both hope we're wrong. History however, along with AM's lack of building anything for the last 15 years, is on our side.

As for Bill James and Trembley Lucky.... it's a ridiculous debate. Who knows how good Trembley is. What we do know however, is this man has been given two of the worst teams in O's history to work with the past 2 years. And you want to discredit him? What kind of person does something like that?

Was Joe Torre as bad as he was prior to managing the Yanks or as good as he was after? I don't have the answer to that... but I'm sure you do.

Enjoy your 70 win season Lucky! In the meantime, keep reminding everyone how immature they are in wanting a winning team now.

Me? I'll just keep posting about what I see, knowing full well that the good ole O's will prove my case at every turn.

wayne -

I don't really have an opinion one way or the other on the topic here. Especially since it has little to do with any of our players.

My point was this: Since James is down on the O's here, you're 100% with him. But if he had ranked them higher, you would have fallen back on your "they're just names!" or "most young players don't pan out!" argument.

Your schtick is old, wayne. If someone is for the O's, you disagree with them. If someone is against the O's, you agree with them. Blah blah blah...

Wayne- Thanks for the exchange on this level. It is much more enjoyable.

The fact that there were parts in place does not change the fact that Andy started with the foundation. Not just the fact that he started with the minors but that he started with player scouting and acquisition. Joe Jordan was already in place too but MacPhail still started by working on the organization's foundation.

I dont give AM credit for "every" person on the roster and I never took it to the issue of the individual components of the roster. I spoke in terms of building an entire organization as opposed to a major league team and I speak about the way he went about it, professional, organized, methodical, as being such a striking difference from the previous decade. I have my opinions on individual players but unlike you, I dont pretend to have the lifetime of experience it would take to consider myself as qualified as Andy backed up by an entire scouting system to assess our talent.

I agree that Bill James changed the way baseball is viewed. My point is that it has been to the detriment of the game IMO. Too many people think they can do the math and never watch a game and come up with a valid opinion of a player. Too many people put math ahead of what their eyes tell them. How many times do we see someone using statistics to "prove" that some prospect they have never seen play the game sucks? The game is played on the field still, not on Sportscenter or the boxscore the next morning.

I am not sure if you meant me specifically when you said you respect my views or everyone but it is not respectful when you say anyone who disagrees with you is wearing rose colored glasses or is an employee of the warehouse. Maybe you legitimately dont mean disrespect by these comments but I think it is cleat that they are taken personally as disrespect.

We will just have to agree to disagree on the issue of wins and losses. Building an organization or even just a team is a process. As long as there is adequate progress (and we obviously on the definition of adequate) towards building a winning/championship team, the architect is successful. Until that improvement stalls or disappears, he is not a failure by my measure. Some of us actually enjoy watching the process in motion. I have enjoyed watching WIeters and Reimold and Bergeson and the other kids progress through the minors and grow into major leaguers.

Lucky,

I too don't look at individual players as much as others. My intent by bringing up some names however, was to again show people that many of the young players were already in the system prior to AM arriving. Some (not you) just don't get that.

I've always been about the entire make up of the team. And it's been my opinion, and remains my opinion, that AM does not know how to build a competitive team.... not since the financial business of baseball truly changed in the 90's. His track record simply proves such.

I've never used the term 'rose colored glasses' by the way. I have however, used the term 'warehousers', because I believe they exist.

not brooks,

That's fine if you don't have an opinion on the subject. If your intent is simply to come on to attack me, then have at it.

You are however, 110% wrong when it comes to my reaction to Bill James. The man changed the way baseball is analyzed... just ask any baseball scout or exec.

If Bill had ranked the O's high, it would absolutely had change my thinking. Not all the way mind you, but enough to finally give me a little hope.

I don't put the same trust into sources such as Baseball America, as their selections are mainly based on guess work. I mean I can just as easily quote MLB's prospect list (which isn't as favorable for the O's), but people on here would discredit that source because it doesn't hype the O's.

Do I agree with everything BJ says? Of course not! I do know though, that the guy knows more than me, you, and yes...even baseball america..... which admittedly, isn't saying a lot.

Relax nb.... I'm glad you came back, but try to stay clear of the personal attacks! You're better than that!

Gil - perhaps you should get out that dictionary yourself! Do you even know what filibuster means? This blog is not a legislative body and there is no vote proposed for me to try and obstruct so I have no clue what you are trying to say.

And how am I pompous? I am not the one who put myself above others. I am not the one who thinks he has the power to dictate what is a "real" story to the rest of us and what is not. I acknowledge that there is not only one way to build a team. I have not said that your way is invalid. That stands in dramatic contrast to you who stated flat out that you speak the truth, that posters are hearing impaired and an apologist since I disagree with you. How much difference is there between your declaring that you are telling the truth in the post above and your declaration here that you never claim to be right? I think you just say whatever fits your post at hand. You are like the Nixon administration talking about Vietnam. What you said yesterday is no longer operational!

Again, my posts would clearly show that I am closer to agreeing with your underlying premise than opposed to it. But there is no promise that YOUR plan would bring long OR short term success! If we did nothing that didn't have a guarantee attached to it, we would never make a move. Signing free agents has no guarantee and counting on prospects has no guarantee so it comes down to personal preference.

Again you make up facts and claim to know the future. You just don't know what moves Andy could have done, tried to do, or what the cost of the moves you would have preferred would have been. So when you say that Andy could have put a competitive team on the field you rely as usual on your stock in trade. Some crystal ball you have that lets you see the future AND possible futures. You don't know that signing Lackey, Holiday and Bey would have resulted in a winning season. You don't know that trading youth for Adrian would have resulted in a winning team. As you said, NO GUARANTEES!! You cop out and just say they needed a RH bat. But you don't say who that is or how we would get him. THAT is why I referred to what we don't know about his offseason efforts. I agree with part of what you said. I wanted an impact bat for 1B or 3B. Specifically I wanted and still want Adrian Gonzalez. But I don't pretend to know that we didn't try to get him, what it would take to get him or that my crystal ball tells me that move would guarantee 82 wins.

LaRoche wasn't going to get us to 82 wins IMO. Just isn't a big enough impact for all the whining and hand wringing. I was not a fan of either corner infielder signing but I can see Atkins outproducing LaRoche. Wouldn't bet on it but wouldn't be shocked either. I don't see enough difference between them to justify all the fuss. I wouldw overpay for AGon but not for LaRoche.

Wayne- well we all knew that the reasonable even Wayne wouldn't last long. Nice transferrence. You have been insulting the bulk of this board since the day you showed up. That is why you are such a lightning rod. You call anyone who disagrees with you demeaning names. You disrespect most of this board over and over. You set yourself up as the voice of reason and dis anyone who disagrees with you. So dont start this revisionist history and play sweetnes and light.

Have you had your reading comprehension checked? I never trashed or badmouthed Tremblay. Where did you pull that claim from? Nowhere did I try to assess Tremblay and you are using the same argument (Joe Torre) that I have used repeatedly to those who disparage Tremblay. You dont even have a clue what I Think about the Orioles because this whole exchange has been about what I think of YOU and Gil. Not the Orioles. You never asked me what I believe about the Orioles. You assume that because I dont like you and your immature need for immediate gratification and need to trash anyone who disagrees with you, that I must be part of the pollyanna club that you insult constantly. Typical! You say you write what you see but here is yet another example that what you see is not necessarily actually there.

What is hilarious about you is that you are exactly what you put down. The only difference between your blind negativity and the blind pollyanna statements of the "optimists" you insult is that you are flip sides of the same coin.

Interesting that you would say I trash people. That's pretty harsh Lucky, and I'd like for you to come up with an example of me doing so. I'd also like you to show an example of how I 'dis' anyone who disagree's with me.

I have differing opinions, and yes, I don't have faith in AM. But please Lucky, show me where I've attacked people personally.

If the only thing you can come up with is my calling some (in general) warehousers, then 'please', that doesn't really upset you, does it?

Actually, it's you sir who is constantly on the attack. I've never seen Gil attack you personally, yet you go right for his throat. Yes, he has a strong opinion, as well as conviction. But why do you take that as someone pretending he knows more than anyone else?

I too have very strong opinions. I keep my attacks directed at the O's though, not you. Why are you such a mean spirited person?

My reference to Trembly by the way was in response to your 1:38 post. Maybe I misunderstood what you were referring to. Interesting!

Anyway, you need to relax Lucky. No one attacked you personally, and unless you are a part owner of the O's, what people say on blogs shouldn't upset you so much.

The truth is Lucky, the O's are still a bad baseball 'team'. They're picked to come in last once again, and this will be the 13th year of consecutive losing. Define such facts as negativity all you want, but until things change in the win/loss column, anything else is just 'hype'.

Call me silly, but to use your words, I'm just someone who is immature, in need of immediate gratification. After 12 losing seasons, 3 under AM....... label me 'guilty'!

If what you all are arguing about is Bill James' analysis, then why are you still bringing up Erbe, Arrieta, Patton, Matusz, Tillman, and Bergesen?

ONCE AGAIN, James' list is about players who have made it to MLB, not prospects!!! And it would be unfair to include Reimold, Weiters, Matusz, Tillman and Matusz before they have a full season under their belt.

I know someone is bound to actually read my previous posts.....

Lucky,

I have always been a reasonable man with reasonable people and will adjust my rhetoric to meet the level I am dealing with. There are only two or three people that I clash with on the blog, and you are one of them. You don't like my style and I don't like yours. That's fine with me. I am not going to convince you and vice versa. Frankly I don't have a problem with that. You don't like my opinions about the Orioles and Andy Macphail, and seem to take personal offense. I state my opinions strongly, and use alliteration and sometimes exxageration to make a point. I am having fun, apparently you are not.

I don't claim to be right, and I usually add that disclaimer every three posts but you take my words as an absolute truth and react. Most of the things I say have basis in fact, you say I make them up. Let's examine a few of my favorite points:

I say Angelos and Macphail are cheap. Where do the Orioles stand in the way of payroll by the way compared to other teams? Give me the names of some top established talent Macphail has brought in since he took the job.

I say Macphail could have been rebuilding on two tracks, farm system and top outside talent. Is that not a true statement?

I say garrett atkins was a bad signing, three declining years in a row, rated -5 by baseball prospectus. You say he may outperform laroche this year. Based on what facts, Lucky?

I say the Orioles are planning to lose again this year. Of course that is rhetoric but it serves my point that no real efforts were made by Macphail in the offseason to put the team in a position to win. So if you are not planning to win, then you are planning to lose this year.

I like to state my 5 stock reasons that the Macphail defenders always give. Why? Because they have been repeated over and over and over by the true belivers and I think it is funny to poke fun at them. I didn't invent them. I just report them.

I don't have to be privvy to whatever difficulties Macphail may have experienced trying to make deals this offseason. He made the deals he wanted to make and they were hardly earth shattering, or game changers. I am not the only person who made the statement that his offseason was underwhelming. The blog owner tends to agree with my assessment.

I like to grade Macphail's efforts and I always give him an A for rebuilding the farm system and a big fat F for improving the talent level at the major league level since he arrived on the scene. 64 wins last year? How am I wrong.

Tell me how any of the statements I just made are patently false.

Gil and wayne,

Welcome back. You guys speak for many of us. It's interesting how the optimist are the most defensive, name calling people on the blog! Yet, they always berate you two. Go figure!

I picked a random day and - shock - this is what I found:

In respect to Shamrock defending the Baseball America Top 10 list
---
Shamrock, this is the Orioles top 10. You act like it's the top 10 in all of baseball.

And no one said trade them all. If you're going to be a jerk then at least read post correctly.

Of course the Orioles should trade some of these prospects for a proven player like a-gonz. Anyone who doesn't see or understand that should just craw under a rock and simply go away.

Try to act like winning matters sham sham. Have some pride as this isn't little league where winning doesn't matter. This is where the big boys play and where WINNING is the ONLY thing that matters.

Posted by: wayne | December 18, 2009 11:03 PM

wayne calls shamrock a jerk and says he has no pride. wayne also suggests people who don't agree with him should "craw under a rock and simply go away"

Later-

Enjoy the continued losing. In fact, invite brooksie and jim666 to your party when the Orioles get to 75 wins in a few years.

Posted by: wayne | December 19, 2009 12:16 AM

wayne suggests people who don't agree with him enjoy losing and then goes on to belittle not brooks and jim66 by altering their names.

ok brooks. whatever you say

Posted by: wayne | December 19, 2009 12:30 PM

wayne, after repeatedly berating not brooks for not giving Flanagan credit for drafting Wieters, acts as if not brooks is somehow beneath him once not brooks gives proof that he gave Flanagan credit from the start

So that's three times in one random blog comment section, wayne calls names and/or affects an arrogance which demeans the person he is responding to. Yeah, wayne never ever never calls people names.

lol... I love it!

Maybe you should print the post i was responding to? Maybe context matters?

In any case, whether I was responding in kind or not, such was a while ago. I don't counter by responding to personal attacks in such a manner any longer.

I love your research mission though.....

Good work... incomplete research and a little obsessive, but good work nonetheless!

Shamrock's post:

Front Page of Baseball America... like to think they know something about baseball... funny it says nothing about trading them all for a big hitter.

For the first time in years, there is reason to be optimistic if you're an Orioles fan. The big league team is coming off of another poor season, but the combination of young talent in the big leagues and additional pitching help in the Orioles Top 10 should make Baltimore a team to keep an eye on in upcoming years.
• Will Lingo chatted about the Orioles farm system .
• We've posted Top 10s for 19 different teams. Check all of them out or see the schedule for the remaining American League teams to be posted.

Posted by: SHAMROCK | December 18, 2009 10:49 PM

I am shocked !

A well respected baseball man writes an objective article downplaying the overhyped hoopla coming out of the warehouse about our so called youth movement and the kool aiders are out in full force blasting bill james for having the temerity to give a more realistic evaluation about our below avg roster as it relates to the rest of MLB

BA has 4 O's in the top 100 and they r geniuses, but when its noted that tampa has 7 in the top 70, BA suddenly loses its exalted prominence-- U cant make this up

You're getting closer...... If you're going to be this obsessed, keep going. I have to be pushed to call someone a jerk, so keep digging....... good stuff!

You're getting closer...... If you're going to be this obsessed, keep going. I have to be pushed to call someone a jerk, so keep digging....... good stuff!

Jason,

It indeed would be tough to make up. It's sad though... When I travel, you see the same thing in other losing cities. People just want a winner so bad, they refuse to deal in reality.

I don't know which is worse. Ignoring reality, thus always being disappointed, Or, facing reality head on, and always being frustrated.

Well, now I know for sure this guy has no clue. Go back to your stats Billy Boy. Mauer? He might be the best player at his position in the big leagues since John Bench. Can't argue with his batting title, can you? First catcher ever to accomplish this feat. Did Bill James ever play the game, does he even know how strenuous the catching position can be? Apparently, you get no credit from ol' Bill for taking a beating 120 games a year.

Lucky Horseshoe, great post!!! It's such a key point to remember that wayne, gil, etc.... see things with as big a negative spin as a lot of us do with a positive spin. Of course they claim to be smarter and more objective, but the fierce negativity gives them away. The truth, as always, is probably somewhere in the middle. The health of the Baltimore Oriole organization has improved VASTLY under Andy MacPhail. Has that translated to wins on the field yet? -- nope. Will it? --- nobody knows, not even wayne and gil. I love Bill James, but like Casadilla said, he's a statistician, NOT a scout. Joe Mauer rated lower than Nick, or David Wright, or Justin Upton, or Pablo Sandoval? Ridiculous!!! Hey Bill, just give us the numbers and keep your opinion to yourself!!!!

Hey Severn Dave I just read all of the posts and I disagree with you that Wayne and Gil are negative about the team, I think they are pathological pragmatists who don't like the way Macphail is running the rebuilding project. I will admit I have problems with it too, however that ship has sailed and Macphail has made it clear that we are counting on the farm system to produce a winner no matter how long it takes. It does sometimes take blind faith to be a fan of this team as bad as it has been for so long but as Elenor Roosevelt once said "It is better to light one candle than to curse the darkness."
Wayne and Gil are still cursing the darkness of the chronic losing streak. I can't fault them for that, just as it bothers me on the other end of the spectrum that some of the fans have become so irrationally giddy about some of the young talent. Let's start seeing some results in the W/L column before we wet our pants in excitement.

Careful tony,

You'll likely get trashed because you didn't make things up. Don't you know that trashing people and saying they said things they never said is the way to go on these trails?

Anyway, thanks for the post! It was truthful and logical. Something foreign around here.

wayne I am glad that you, Not Brooks,and gil have rejoined the discussions. I would like to see James C. return along with bob c. As I said in my post the ship has sailed on how Andy Macphail is going to administer the plan, and most on the blog have accepted that reality. You and Gil have not, and as a result you both push back against the conventional wisdom on the blog, creating a lot of controversy and angst. After last offseason I felt no useful purpose could be served by arguing about Macphail's procedures and approach, only what he does going forward. Some on the blog will always support his every move, others will take them case by case, and you and Gil will oppose almost everything he does. And the beat goes on.

Tony --- wayne and gil not negative? REALLY? Oh well, I don't have a bad attitude towards those guys at all and they are obviously both "baseball smart". They just disagree with the way MacPhail is going about the business of rebuilding and I happen to think he's going about it exactly the right way. I'm willing to wait for the young kids to develop (or not), and they aren't. They think the O's should spend, spend, spend like the Stankees and Red Sux, and I don't --- the O's don't have that kind of money. They seem to forget that MacPhail inherited a horrible mess to try and straighten out, and I don't. But we simply have different opinions about the way the O's should rebuild and nobody knows for SURE which way would work best.

Dave,

See, now there ya go...... It's exactly what I just said to tony - about how people just plain make stuff up.

I won't speak for Gil, as he's more than capable. As for me though, I have NEVER suggested this team can or should spend like the yanks or sox. You simply won't find one post that says anything close to that (and I know people will now research what I've said).

Instead, I've said they should spend in the middle of the pack. They are NOT a small market team dave, even though they want you to think that way.

I've also used St Louis as a model the O's could follow. Similar size market, same kind of passionate fans, etc......

I respect your opinion. I really do!

You need not respect me, but I do ask that you don't blatantly misrepresent my position.

Wayne,

In my case I think I know where Dave is coming from. Since last fall many of us agreed that the Orioles had holes to fill, and Pete was the first one to come up with the formula to add a big right handed bat, two corner infielders and a veteren starting pitcher. I expanded on that and said that we needed two experienced pitchers, the big right handed bat and not just stopgap corner infelders but quality players. As the argument boiled over on the blog I argued for players like Matt Holliday, Rich Harden, Adam Laroche,Scott Kouzmanoff, Adrian Beltre and others. Those players would have cost real money and/or prospects. Macphail decided to keep the payroll low and fill the holes on the cheap.

So in essenece, the Orioles WOULD have had to spend like the Yankees and the Red Sox for the players I thought they should get. Dave is technically correct that I think Angelos and Macphail should spend real money and make the team better sooner.

That, then leads us into the five main reasons why the Orioles can't acquire marquis talent, assembled over time courtesy of the Andy Macphail fan club:

1. They aren't worth the money
2. They might block the kids.
3. They won't come here anyway
4. Don't trade the prospects
5. It never was about{fill in a year]anyway.

Pete...

Way to go with Spin Journalism. You posted something semantically out of context and it created a huge wave of discussion.

Almost like the Tiger Woods Gatorade ad dropping. That was set in motion well before TIGERGATE-2009!, however the articles semantically make the reader believe that the dropping happened because of TIGERGATE-2009!

When you said "youth movement", you failed to acknowledge that James is measuring (in his own special way) talent at the ML level, not the overall health of the franchise and farm system. His calculations are based on (his own special) formulas that do not appear to work in the favor of young prospects in the Bigs.

wayne -

The reason I don't have much of an opinion on this James thing is this:

His list is a study on the best young Major Leaguers in the game.

How many of those players were rookies in 2009? Zero. How many were second year players? Three or four (I don't feel like counting).

Of the O's young core, the only one who I expected to make the list, Markakis, made it at #10. Not too shabby. I'm not at all surprised that we didn't see Matusz or Wieters on the list, just as I'm not at all surprised that guys like Elvis Andrus, Brett Anderson, Gordon Beckham, Tommy Hanson and Andrew McCutchen didn't make the cut.

Anyways, when it comes down to it, comparing this list to Baseball America's Top 100 is apples and oranges. Of course BA is dealing with guesswork, as all scouting is guesswork and BA primarily works with prospects. James, on the other hand, has loads of big league data to work with on each of the 20 players on his list.

And were you really surprised at my reaction to your thoughts on James' list? If you do have such a respect for Bill James' work, that's great. But you can't say that it isn't surprising to someone who's read your comments here over the past several months.

In the end, it's good to be here, arguing again. We certainly disagree on just about everything, wayne, but I respect you as a fellow O's fan and I'm glad we're both back.

Hey Gil,

It's about context I suppose. When I talk about spending, I'm always considering the bottom line.

When St Louis pony's up for AP for example, they'll have to pay NY money, yet they'll have to adjust their overall payroll accordingly.

The O's could have overspent for Tex, but I'm understanding that they'd have to make up for it elsewhere in order to spend in the middle of the pack (overall).

If AM went to St Louis next year by the way, how do you think those fans would receive him? I know..... totally different situation, but overall, don't you think they'd be scared out of their boots. One thing they could count on..... AP would be gone quicker than one could say 'losing season'.

Wayne -- I absolutely respect your opinion, I thought I made that clear in my last post --- but maybe not. I guess I just assumed that you think the O's should spend like the Skanks and Sox since you're not a huge fan of what MacPhail is doing. My apologies. Yet in a way, it's almost inferred. Buying a Holliday, or Lackey, or Bay would NOT boost the O's to the point where they'd be able to compete with the Big Two, so we'd almost HAVE to spend the same kind of money! I don't know. The fact is, none of us know just how much the Orioles have to spend or exactly what restraints Angelos puts on AM. Which leads to my biggest problem with you guys attacking MacPhail all the time. I'm not in love with the guy, really, but we just don't know what kind of box Angelos has him in.

Gil -- Here's my response to your 5 "MacPhail Fan Club" points.

1. They aren't worth the money -- some are, some aren't. We'd probably agree on most of the free agents if we talked about 'em individually.
2. They might block the kids -- I'm sure we disagree on this one. I am ALL IN when it comes to waiting for Snyder and/or Bell. As far as Atkins goes - he's a big risk. You don't know that he's gonna fail any more than the rest of us know that he's gonna succeed. He's a one year rental, I don't care if he's a big bust or not.
3. They won't come here anyway -- that's just flat out TRUE in a lot of cases, no opinions necessary. That is not, however, an excuse to NOT go after 'em.
4. Don't trade the prospects -- depends on the prospect. Wieters, Jones, Matusz should be untouchable! Everybody else should be available for the right deal.
5. It was never about (20**) anyway -- I've been a fan of that one up until now. For me, it's ALL about 2011. Not cuttin' them any more slack.

nb,

Great post..... and at the end of the day, I bet we agree on more than you think!

Dave,

We're getting closer, but for the most part, we'll just have to agree to disagree. Maybe after 2011, you'll see more of where I'm coming from.

AGain, I hope I'm wrong. I want a winner in the worse way!