Oh crap... turnout the lights, bulldoze the stadium, sell the jacuzzi... its over!

(Is it any coincidence there is a Back and Neck Pain Ad on the sidebar for this post?)

OK, this seems like an appropriate moment to ask you a question, Pete.

Have you heard anything from Trembley/McPhail about the number of innings Tillman, Bergesen, and Matusz are expected to throw this season? If they are all part of the opening day rotation as Zrebiec believes, who of these three should we expect to see still pitching in August?

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Pete's reply: I think they are expected to be full-time starters, though I wouldn't be surprised if they tire late in the season. None of them have pitched anywhere close to that much in a season.

Rick,

You can reasonably expect each of those 3 to give 170 innings this year.

Bergesen:
2008: 159 innings
2009: 134 innings

Tillman:
2008: 135.2 innings
2009: 161.2 innings

Matusz:
2009: 156.2 innings

I expect the O's to be very aware of the 'Verducci' effect.

I would rather see the minor injuries and strains occur early in camp than two weeks from now. These are young kids who heal fast and the curse of the Oriole young pitchers is over. {why do I keep having nightmares of the TV camera panning into the Oriole dugout in May focusing on 5 young Oriole pitchers with their arms in slings}. Got to STOP that dream, it is NEGATIVE and NEGATIVITY of any kind is no longer permitted on the blog.

Bergenson will be fine. Tillman will be fine. Uhera will be fine. Patton will be fine. Erbe will be fine. Mickolio will........

Tony,

Seriously? You'd rather see the minor injuries now? Such a deep statement.

Really, I can find more interesting reading in the Sarasota Sunday Morning Auto section.

170-180 innings shouldn't be out of their sites. I would look for Trembley to be watching their pitch counts more then he would Guthrie or Millwood.

So if they're piling up a lot of pitches you could see some 5-6 inning starts even if they pitch well. That's where more depth in the pen will help.

But, Bergenson and Matusz have shown an ability to be pretty efficent with their pitches. Tillman's the guy that will bear closer watching...

Mountain Fan, I agree with your logic from what we have seen so far from the three, although it is a small sample. If the Orioles break camp with the five healthy starting pitchers that are tentatively penciled in, the middle relief part of the bullpen is going to have to have some depth to avoid the second half meltdown as these kids wear down.

Shamrock...

Just FYI... the ads are likely produced using a Google-based search query. Whatever text shows up on this page, the ads will correspond based on their 'keywords' etc. In other words... no coincidence. Totally intentional.

Talk about you (Shamrock) enough, and I'm sure we'll get ads for Lucky Charms and/or Guinness.

Usually when pitchers have non arm issues during camp its normally a fitness issue!

could be worse (arm/shoulder)

Wayne - did Tillman report out of shape?

You can't make this stuff up.....

One blogger is actually asking another if Tillman came in out of shape.... based of course on another blogger suggesting why Tillman may be sore.

Geeks in rare form.....

Bob f I guess im asking Pete a general question about fitness in regards to Tillman. I see how it could be misconstrued and it wasnt meant that way sorry.

But thats how injuries happen as players often have different levels of dedication to being in shape.

Anonymous Wayne ..if your gonna attempt to insult me at least make an attempt to type the words correctly....you sound like a tool who cant spell when you try to guess the context of my statement!

PS every browser has a "spell-check " embedded into the browser....right click on the word and choose the proper spelling!

your welcome

Shamrock...

"Just FYI... the ads are likely produced using a Google-based search query. Whatever text shows up on this page, the ads will correspond based on their 'keywords' etc. In other words... no coincidence. Totally intentional.

Talk about you (Shamrock) enough, and I'm sure we'll get ads for Lucky Charms and/or Guinness."

Then what brought up the ad for the strip club a little while back? (other than sagging revenues at the Sun)

Great, here we go again...this and Bergesen coupled w/walking in on ESPN's Classic's "Greatest Combacks" marathon during the 9th inning of the Mother's Day Massacre against the Red Sux while getting a hair cut and we're doomed again for a 13th straight year (or is it more than that?). Hope springs eternal....

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Pete's reply: Or, it could just be a minor back spasm.

A back spasm could be anything from a lower back ache to a rib cage/lat strain. It is rarely just a muscle cramp. Tillman will be down for at least a week.

Again, one must guage the amount of happy talk injury status with the truth when it comes to the Orioles. With this organization's history of honesty, he may have broken his leg, which caused him to fall flat on his back bruising it in the process.

I guess it all depends on how one defines "reasonable" but CC Sabathia pitched 68 1/3 innings in 1999 and 146 1/3 innings in 2000 before pitching 180 1/3 innings for Cleveland in 2001, his rookie year. He hasn't been below that since.

I think all three pitchers have been handled reasonably. Therefore, they have been placed in good position to contribute at least 170 innings each.

There are too many variables to expect all three will do it. One is the five-man rotation (which I personally don't like). Another is Guthrie and Millwood.

Guthrie has pitched at least 170 innings the last three years for the Orioles. Millwood has pitched at least 170 innings in nine of his last 12 years.

The Orioles have never had five pitchers with at least 170 innings.

History: The Orioles had four pitchers with at least 170 innings each in five of the seven years (1980-86). One was a strike year (1981) and one was (ironically enough) the world series year of 1983 when they had three.

Since Earl Weaver retired for good, the Orioles have had three pitchers at that threshold six times and four pitchers once.

By contrast, the Orioles had two pitchers with at least 170 innings ten times, and only one pitcher with that many innings six times.

The big seven out of the last 23 years were:

2007: Cabrera, Bedard, Guthrie
2006: Bedard, Lopez, Benson
2000: Mussina, Ponson, Rapp
1999: Erickson, Ponson, Mussina
1997: Mussina, Erickson, Key, Kamieniecki
1966: Mussina, Wells, Erickson
1992: Mussina, Sutcliffe, McDonald

Franchise addendum: The 1947 St. Louis Browns had five pitchers with at least 170 innings.

Non-sequitor head-scratcher: The Orioles had four 20-game winners in 1971 (Cuellar, Dobson, Palmer, McNally). Those same four pitchers started all but eleven of the Oriole games in 1972. Three posted better ERA's but none of them had as good of a record as the year before.

Palmer was the closest going from 20-9 to 21-10 while lowering his ERA from 2.68 to 2.07.

Cuellar was the only other pitcher to even post a winning record. He went from 20-9 to 18-12 while his ERA improved from 3.08 to 2.57.

Dobson's ERA improved from 2.90 to 2.65 but his 20-8 record fell to 16-18.

McNally saw his record drop from 21-5 (the best of the four) to 13-17 (the worst of the four) despite a tiny rise in his ERA, 2.89 to 2.95.

Can you imagine 71 complete games (1971) or even 62 (1972)? Wow!

Here we go again with the Oriole pitching rotation - Tillman's back is sore. Bet anyone this becomes chronic this spring into summer.
There is only one main issue that should be on every blog entry - who should this team sign to gurantee additional depth for this "shaky" starting rotation?
Answer - Sign Washburn fast!

jebus waspman!

Throw in a little OPS and UZR ratings and I would swear you were Not Brooks in disguise.

...or are you?!?!? ha!

Pete, I know you were very high on Simon after what you saw during spring training 09 so do you think he could be a wild card for the rotation this season if an injury occurs or someone underperforms? I know he is probably an after thought for most fans, but he didn't seem like a pitcher who nibbled, but rather a guy who just threw strikes and went after the hitter. It was unfortunate that he was hurt after his 1st start, but I believe he had surgery right away so he's had a full year almost to recover.

Yes Waspman, those were heady times when Oriole hurlers pitched complete game losses and didn't start staring into the dugout in the 5th inning with two runners on and nobody out.

The game has changed and young prospects are groomed as 6 inning pitchers from the low minors on up. Five man rotations vs. four. It's all about the money. Palmer was probably making $35,000 in 1971. This is when I need Not Brooks but I don't even know what the major laegue minimum is anymore, the money thrown around is so outrageous that it is hard to comprehend.

Anonymous,

Here's news!
Shut the hell up.

Uh-oh. I'm trying to keep that whole hope-springs-eternal buzz going, but mentions of injuries bring nightmarish flashbacks of recent years (i.e., losing seasons) past.

Again, not to be (too) negative this early into pre-season, but I am not up to hearing a bunch of excuses this year if/when there are injuries. Very few teams get through an entire season without some injuries, minor or major. It's a part of the game, and good teams find a way to deal with it.

The same goes for late-season "fatigue". I know we have three youngsters in our rotation (for now) as well as in other positions, but I am not up to hearing about how these players have "hit the wall" of fatigue in August or September, if/when the Orioles descend into their usual late-season swoon. Again, other teams face this issue as well, so the Orioles will just have to deal with it and not continue to make excuses.