Great article Pete, although I'm not sold on either Washburn or Looper, I wouldn't entirely be opposed to signing them and then holding my breath.

I don't think Tillman will gain much more in AAA and I hope Arrieta isn't much further behind. I'll be keeping tabs on the starting 5 down here in Norfolk -- should be an excellent group.

I think its obvious to add a Washburn or Looper depending on price, and the later it gets, the cheaper they are. Starting in AAA at age 21 would be fine for Tillman, assuming Bergeson gets enough work in the spring. Lets see, who else is coming...... Arrieta, Erbe, Spoone, Patton, and the other lefty who i can't recall at the moment.......give them time

(i knew Drew F as a young guy.... been 20 years. hey Drew do you listen to Amy Winehouse? all jokes aside, she's the bomb, man. check her out )

Onceawarrior,

Zach Britton.

He'll start the year at AA (probably with Spoone), but from the looks of it, he could wind up being the best O's pitching prospect still in the minors. Exciting stuff.

Offer Washburn $5.75M guaranteed with simple, achieveable incentives that could escalate his 2010 salary to $7.25M. Add other incentives that could make his salary $9M, howvever unlikely.

Also offer him a out option while having a club option, too.

Certainly, he can't be expecting someone to toss $9.85M his way like the last three years.

Orioles Win! Theeeeeeee Orioles WIn!

No, not games dummy! They win the 'we have a bunch of pitching prospects, many of whom won't make it at all, but we're going to lose for the 13th consecutive year, so we have to hype something' game.

Something magic happens........

waspman,

I think given the current market, an easily achievable 7.25mil would be overpaying. I think a proper contract would be somewhere between 5-6mil tops. That just seems to be the going rate for most talent these days. And, the later it gets, the more that number goes down.

Hmmm, I just read Jarrod Washburn is a client of Scott Boras.

Oh well.

Pete,
I completely agree that the O's should add Washburn. If they have to send Tilman to AAA for the start of the season, then the only way he's NOT going to be called up soon is if the Orioles are winning--which is the whole point, right?

Pete,
I completely agree with your argument in your column that the O's should add Washburn. If they have to send Tilman to AAA for the start of the season, then the only way he's NOT going to be called up soon is if the Orioles are winning--which is the whole point, right?

MIke,

What are you smoking? Winning?

In Baltimore, it's about development players as if they were in the minors, saving money, and saying 'it's about next year'.

Where you been?

Wow, I'm so glad the Orioles decided not to keep the roster low.

ESPN shows the Orioles' 40-man roster salary at $61.9 million, good for 26th out of 30 teams. And if you look they have outdated/incorrect salary information for Tejada, Millwood and Atkins (last year's numbers, or don't represent cash that changed hands in a trade)- which inflates what those players cost by $14.8 m!

So by my math the Orioles approximate salary base is $47.1 m- nearly 10 mil below #27 Oakland and far below what Baltimore has been spending.

Now I understand that we have the luxury of a lot of young, cheap talent- which isn't a bad thing- and long-term "blocking" is a risk the team doesn't want to run at a lot of positions (which takes them out of the market for a lot of top talent). But I don't see how it would hurt to sign a Washburn (or Bedard, a few weeks ago) or decent relievers. It seems like a win-win situation: insurance for any unexpected injuries or struggles by the younger guys, and if everyone is doing great and we end up with an overabundance of starters- trade your one-year vets at the trade deadline for more prospects! I would think MacPhail would be intrigued, if only by the possibility of adding a few more potential trade chips...

At any rate, I just had to comment when I saw McPhail's quote about the Orioles not going for a low payroll. Yes, they could have saved $25 mil or so by not signing Atkins, Tejada, Gonzalez and Millwood; but I don't think you could really consider any of these pickups the sign of a free-spending team on a acquisitions binge- and the numbers don't bear that out either.

So the roster isn't low to you Andrew? Oh my, the Orioles do have the fans right where they want them.

Old (tired) Wayne how can you have the nerve and ego to honor yourself??

Glad to see someone honoring wayne. So much bs being posted lately

Pete,
You can never have enough pitching as you cant account for injuries and arm fatigue and other factors that wear down the staff as the season goes on but Matusz easily slides into #3 and maybe our #1 by the end of the season!

If all were worried about is Hernandez berken or someone to step up like Bergesson last year (maybe Patton) to fill the back end of the rotation for a month or so until Bergesson is ready, than we are in decent shape!

BTW Bergesson wasnt a lock to make it this year anyways...something about the league having time to see him for the 2/3 rd time around!!!

"Glad to see someone honoring wayne. So much bs being posted lately"

nice try Old Wayne

Sarcasm, Doug. Look it up.

Washburn's remarkably inconsistent. His ERA's always been either above 4.30 (usually well above) or below 3.80 (usually right around). Which pitcher would the O's be signing?

I'm not a huge Hernandez/Berken fan, but I don't think Washburn represents enough of an upgrade to warrant his signing, regardless of the uncertainty surrounding Bergesen.

IMO, the question turns on Washburn's potential value as a midseason trade chip, and that simply can't be ascertained from his past performances. I vote "pass."

I think MacPhail should add a starting pitcher who is still remaining on the free agent market.

Either injury or poor performance will dicatate this to be wise by the first week of May.

Pete -

I personally don't think Washburn is a good idea. I just don't see him coming into the AL East for the weakest team and being thrilled about it. I could see him signing with Seattle or Minnesota. If we did sign him, which Washburn do we get - 09 Seattle, or 09 Detroit?

Why not trade Wigginton for a #4 starter, keep Aubrey as 1B/defensive replacement, with Atkins as backup 3B and Andino backup 2B/SS? Or is there no starter out there who fits this scenario? Otherwise, go with Hernandez or Berken every 5th start when needed. We really only need 5 starters in May.

I think there is enough pitching depth with guys like Hendrickson, Uehara, Arrieta and even Patton to be able to afford not pursueing another starter. I would hate to see a Tillman or Arreita or Matusz lose a spot in the rotation for a guy who has no future with the team, even if it wouldnt hurt to have one of these guys start in the minors. It would just be delaying the invitable.

Having been a regular at the Diamond in the late 80's, I saw what I consider to be the best group of young pitchers in quite a long time go through the Braves system. Avery looked best but you could tell Smoltz and Glavine had the stuff and were smarter in how to use it. Having watched several Baysox games when Tillman and Bergesen led the way followed by last year with Arrieta, Patton and Erbe I see quite a few similarities. Too soon to tell but if asked to predict I'd guess Bergesen will surprise, Matusz and Tillman will plateau and both Erbe and Patton will be darkhorses. Enjoy it! I certainly did when the Braves caught lightening and the years that followed were incredible!

I wouldn't mind seeing Tillman get a little more time at AAA. I think Washburn is a quality starter and another insurance policy against rushing anyone.

I liked how Hendrickson pitched as a starter during the last month, but he is clearly a reliever who should only be used as a starter in an emergency.

My biggest concern is not about Begry, but I feel maybe Guthrie has been figured out by the league and if so, he either tries to adjust or maybe he ends up in the pen, but I don't have him locked in as a starter. He was awful last year and how many times have we all seen guys have 2-3 good years and then get blasted? Happens all the time. I hope it's not the case, but the O's can't live with Guthrie near the top of the leader board with giving up HR's.

Good article.

Washburn, if a bargain, may not be such a bad idea.

Peter,

Washburn is the wrong idea, but for the right reason.

It is true that you can never have enough pitching. However, there are two problems with Washburn:

1) Why would he come here? He could likely get the deal we should be offering (if we were to), which is a non-guaranteed deal, from a better team. We'd have to give him actual money and likely give him Tillman's spot, which would be a terrible idea and not even the point anyway.

2) Why should the pitcher we get be a 35-year-old who has spent the seven seasons after his great 2002 below-league-average more often than above?

Signing someone like Washburn puts three guys on the wrong side of thirty in a five-man rotation that is supposed to be filled with young talent. Even if we want to give Tillman competition, it says that we have no confidence that Hernandez, Berken, Arrieta, or another pitcher will step up and take that spot.

In the year that we want our young talent to step up and take control of the team, do we want to send a message that we don't think they can?

If we wanted a pitcher where were we on Chin Ming Wang? $2M for a one year flyer????????????

How do we continue to miss the boat to the Nationals? Last year it was Dunn and this year Wang!

The truth will set you free!

Keith-

WANG WON'T BE WEADY FOR 2 MONTHS!!! HE HAD A 9.00 ERA WHEN HEALTHY LAST YEAR!!!!!

I'll give you Adam Dunn. I would have liked him hitting 50 HRs off the Warehouse(rs). However, maybe Dunn doesn't want to play in the AL where he may get type cast as a DH, cutting into his potential earnings...

What "Truth" are you smoking????

Man, I really think if we had Adam Dunn last year, we may have won almost 65 games. I mean, he really made the Nats a whole lot better.... How many games did they win?

Let's not mention the truth (the setting-free kind, of course) that Dunn only wanted to go somewhere to play outfield. And he was a free agent so he was free to make this choice. Who would you have taken out of our OF to give him At Bats?

Enzo in Brooklyn, I agree that my proposal is a bit of overpaying. But if the Orioles are interested in waiting until $5M and $5M only is the magic signing number, there will be other teams interested and Washburn will fulfill "He wasn't going to come here anyway" folks.

You don't go 12 straight losing seasons with the last three failing to reach 70 wins and say, "How 'bout taking what you're worth?" There are two parties in a contract signing (which may be news to leverage lawyer), and the Orioles have nothing but more dollars to spend to try and draw talent their way.

Keep in mind this signing not only could give the youngsters more time to develop, but could result in a deadline trade much to the Orioles advantage.

One of the biggest problems with Oriole management since Gillick (and Wren 11 months later) were kicked to the curb because the owner knew what was best for the great fans of Baltimore is they have no vision. It's one move (if that) and that's it. Sometimes a move works out; sometimes it doesn't. Whatever happens, nothing is built on it.