Here's a riddle for you: What will happen first, the return of Haley's comet, or the Orioles signing or trading for a marquis level talent?

My money's on the comet.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Well, I can tell you when Halley's Comet will return, so you can set your watch. It is scheduled to return in 2061. Hope I'm around to see it, though it was kind of a bust in 1986.

Cameo appearance, the above comment was from me. It was just hanging out there.

In the words of Not Brooks, whose perfectly reasoned and logical arguments are sorely missed on the blog: "Prove me wrong, Andy!"

MacPhail's history, whether you like it or not, is that he will trade for/sign the hitters.

He did it in Chicago(ARamirez, DLee, both still major contributors to the Cubs and several others, including Henry Rodriguez, Moises Alou, James Lofton, Fred McGriff, et al).

In MInnesota, there were several young sluggers already in the system who were allowed to develop. These guys led the first world series winner, in 1987. Hrbek, Puckett, Brunansky, Gaetti all were keys to the win. Mac even brought Gaetti to the Cubs in the late 90s.

As the Twins started to decline in 1989-1990, MacPhail rebuilt them. He kept the cadre from 1987 and added Gladden, drafted Knoblauch and Shane Mack and of course, added the pitching needed(Jack Morris anyone?). They won the Series in 1991.

He is following the same script here he followed in both Mid-west stops, build thru the draft and add the parts. There is no reason to think he won't do it here.

I'd also think the Red Sox are monitoring SD pretty closely too.

I can't see where Gonzalez moves on the cheap at all. There was a rumor floating around that SD asked for Weiters and Mutusz as the starting point for a package form the O's.

That gives you an idea of the kind of package it could take.

Not sure the O's will be able to be a factor in the bidding. For that to happen, a lot of things have to go right this year and SD has to see some real value in this next wave of pitchers coming up.

Or the O's have to feel like a guys like Britton, Erbe, or Arrieta, can just slide in and replace Matusz in the rotation.

I can't see Weiters going in any package for Gonzalez. In two years Weiters could be the 4 hole hitter we're looking for.

MountainFan - Matusz traded? Expect Halley's Comet to happen first.

MountainFan - Matusz traded? Expect Halley's Comet to happen first.

Posted by: Ken Francis

agreed. there is a better chance that bill haley and the comets coming back before matusz would get traded.

may the schmuck be with you. go terps!

I never said the O's should trade Matusz, what I was pointing out was the level of compensation SD is looking for.

They want guys in return that project to be Allstars. There have been people on here suggesting that he can be picked up by simply naming a group of random names from the minors.

It ain't happening, there are some other teams monitoring ever hicup out of SD to see when they can strike. The price will be high unless SD holds their cards too long. If the O's aren't willing to give up a highly valued player, or two or three, they're not going to be in the running.

I'd prefer to play out the development of the young core a bit longer and lets see what some of these young guys can do. Making a play for AG this summer is probably going to be premature timing for this team.

Oh course I'll be labeled a "Warehouser" for not insisting we pay any price demanded for Gonzalez. But the point is any organization that goes after him will have to give up the "gem" or "gems" of the system.

Right now if the O's aren't willing to build a package around Weiters or Matusz they're not talking about a package that will get the job done.

If the Padres are leading the NL West come July 1st, which is very likely this year, then Gonazlez doesn't get moved until the 2010 season.

No way I'd trade Weiters or Matusz.
But I WOULD offer them a package that included Jones and Tillman and Hernandez.
Jones and Hernandez are both SouCal boys and we could throw in 3 or 4 other players to make the offer irresistible.
Pie could step right into CF.
Arrieta or Erbe could step right into the rotation as the fifth starter.
Throw in Izturis and/or Atkins and/or Snyder.
Tejada could move back to SS, we'd still have Reimold, Wigginton and Scott.
Wigginton starting at 3B could give you 25 home runs.
Scott and Reimold could rotate between LF and DH.

But most importantly, we'd have a slugging cleanup-hitting gold-glove first-baseman.
You've got to give something up in order to get something back.

Roberts 2B
Markakis RF
Reimold LF
Gonzalez 1B
Tejada SS
Weiters C
Wigginton 3B
Scott DH
Pie CF

That's a damned good lineup, folks.

So, Beckham is like our Nolan Reimold. We could trade Reimold, and some pitching prospects, then slate Pie in LF...all depending on how their seasons are going at the All Star Break. If Reimold has 20 HRs at the break, he's a definate lock to hit 30+ HRs, it will be interesting to see how this all unfolds.

Bear I don't think we know for sure if Pie is ready to step into anything, especially centerfield. The Jury is still out on him and he takes bad angles on fly balls, from what I have seen. I have a hunch that if he gets to play regularly the Major League pitchers will start exploiting the holes in his swing. I think spotting him in and out of the lineup is the best way to use him. I see that the Drumbeat has started with even Pete getting on the "play Pie" train. I hope Pie does play well when he gets his limited chances so that it will raise his trade value.

Let some other team stick him out there and give him 500 AB's but not here.
There are a lot of people on this blog who tend to over rate the Orioles talent level. This team is just not that good, yet and we only have a few proven quality players. Let's wait a few years before we start writing their names on Hall of Fame balotts.

Gil,

Welcome back, if only for a cameo appearance......

This blog subject is wasted print, wasted effort and a waste of time.

The White Sox are in the hunt because they want to win and compete at the highest level.

The O's will NOT be in the hunt because they are in love with their prospects, at all cost. And this will not change even if the so called prospects don't match the overblown hype.

The O's will not be in the hunt because, unlike the ChiSox, they are always about developing young players, and never about currently winning.

Instead, the O's are about picking up an ace who has $0 dollar value in Fantasy Baseball (that's 0 as in zero - and he's our ace), and an absolutely terrible new 1B acquisition. That's reality! AG's not!

I've got to disagree with you, Gil. The O's HAVE traded for "marquis-level" talent. Kevin Millwood is at least a (Jason) Marquis-level talent (probably a slight bit above that, as a matter of fact)!

"Marquee-level" talent, on the other hand...

Thanks Wayne,

I have just sat back in awe for a month reading in amazement the gushing praise and predictions of stardom coming from some on the blog about the Orioles "Prospects". A few will do well, most won't, that's just baseball. The Orioles could have put themselves in a competitive situation in the offseason with three simple moves by Macphail: A big right handed bat, two seasoned starting pitchers, and a first baseman with power and a recent track record of success. Instead we get a washed up Garret Atkins, one veteren pitcher who would be a 5th starter on a good team, and the former clubhouse illegal drug distributor who also served a years' probation for lying to Congress and has aged two years in the last four.

The fans are so beaten down that some are even becoming delusional that Felix Pie is the second coming of Willie Davis.

The team is set up perfectly for another losing season, maybe 67 to 73 wins, and that is none of the regulars penciled in to start get hurt. The bullpen is in"make it up as we go along" mode. The plan rolls on as Macphail enters his fourth season with the Orioles. And that plan is to lose for the sake of the plan. The average fan could care less about "prospects" all they sare about is winning, so attendance also takes another hit this year. The team will be 20 games out by the latter part of July, as usual.

When will it end, Wayne, when will it end?

If the Padres are leading the NL West come July 1st, which is very likely this year, then Gonazlez doesn't get moved until after the 2010 season.

cheapskate owner + gutless GM + sweet deal from MLB + lots of MASN revenue = much losing, but highly profitable season

help is on the way via prospects!! oh, other teams have prospects too ? NM then. I thought AM invented prospects

Thanks for the kind words, Gil.

I've been around as well, and it seems as though things have calmed down quite a bit.

To Chris in SD: How is it "very likely" that the Padres will be leading the NL West come July 1st? Do you live in a reality where the Giants, Dodgers, Rockies and Diamondbacks don't exist?

Gil

Its not gonna end this year , you can take that to the bank

And yes , the attendance will drop down , my question is when will O's scrape that ridiculous same day ticket price increase policy ? Our payroll is less than last year and they increase the prices ??? What else is new ?

I don't believe it will end Gil. Not as long as PA and sons own this team. He has come out and said the O's can not compete with the large market teams. He no longer cares about winning and he could care less how the fans and the city feel.

I also don't believe that AM was ever brought in to build a winning team. It never made sense since AM hadn't been successful for almost 2 decades. Everyone involved with the game knows that AM is gearing up for a run at the Commissioners gig.

And here's something people don't think about.... A significant majority of the other owners will vote for AM (when the time comes) because he is NOT a proponent of spending (at all). He will be able to sell himself as someone understanding of the games financial ills. Most of the other owners would much rather have AM than someone who was a spender (see how they always voted for Selig).

So during this period Gil (and who knows how long it will last), AM will never spend. He won't even get to the middle of the pact in spending. Why? Because he'll want/need a majority of the vote.

All of this of course, will play right into the hand of the Angelos family. Their guy will be the new commissioner, thus they'll always be in baseballs inner circle.

So it's going to last a long, long time Gil.

Meanwhile, our clean-up hitter is probably 3 years older than he says he is, while our ace has the worst dollar value (in fantasy) of any other ace in mlb. In fact, he'd be a back of the rotation starter for many 'bad' teams. Mix in Atkins, Wiggy and a few prospects that will dissapoint, and you're right - 67-73 wins, tops!

But that would be a big improvement, as other posters will say.

Anyway, welcome back to you and not brooks. It'll get bad around here again soon, but I was happy to hear Pete say he recognizes emails, thus he knows who's real and who's not. That's something, I guess.

Not Brooks,

The last 2 months of the 2009 season, the Padres played .561 ball. If they play that well to start the 2010 season, they should be in contention.

and No I don't live in Reality, but I do live in San Diego, and it's pretty darn close to reality.

Oh, boy, here comes the sunny trio of wayne, gil and who or whatever anonymous is. I guess this means more episodes of clueless negativity.

Tell me, please, just why is it that you three, among others, are so bloody negative? Do you really not see what has been accomplished? Do you not see the potential? Sure, there are no guarantees, but this group is as close as you're gonna get.

Are all of you so prophetic that you know without a shadow of a doubt that people like Atkins, Millwood, Tejada have no chance to succeed? These are professional athletes looking to prove people wrong, yet you guys think they will fail, no question. I really don't understand your mindset, I really don't.

C' mon guys, you are all better than that. You have to throw out the past 12 years because right here, right now, is all that matters. Someone wanted to compare the '04 team with this year's edition, comparisons like that mean absolutely nothing.

As Buster Olney ends his blogs on ESPN, today is going to be better than yesterday and by extension, tomorrow is going to be better than today. That's the attitude you have to have.

To sit there and say that all the young talent that has been amassed over the past two to five years is going to amount to nothing is ludicrous, I'm sorry. At least let the guys play a few games before you condemn them to the trash heap of history.

The next time you make fun of people like me who see the bright side of what's going on, ask yourselves if you are any better for always looking at the dark side.

Ken, i can answer that.

Gil is frustrated by the Os not producing a better on field product while improving the base of the team...gotta agree with that. Although he still says its andy's 4th year and his 4th year starts june 3rd or whenever.

Wayne's right that it is all about wins and losses at the mlb level, he won't admit in most cases it takes awhile to change the incredibly bad momentum created by past front offices and the complete neglect of seemingly everything in the organization.

And Ken you're right. If someone can't see the improvements that have been made and that there is an actual direction here, they simply want to marinate in misery.

Chris -

I must say I had absolutely no idea the Pads had such a strong finish.

cush - Nice post.

welcome back everyone... the blog is a lot more fun when people have opposing views on the state of our O's. Let's play nice, agree to disagree and have fun rooting for these guys. We are all going to support the team whether the gloom and doomers are right or whether us "warehousers" generate enough positive energy to make this team competitive in September. We all like the "core" players on this team and we would all love AGon manning 1st for the next decade. Disagree with eachother all you like, but just stop with the insults and name calling, it really takes the fun out of this blog...
Go O's!!

to Naysayers:

Once again the team is weak at the top of the starting rotation, but really how much upgrade was available? At least they traded from a position of depth, which was right handed relief.

And admittedly the Atkins move was suspect, but they do have some options slotted behind him that seem pretty interesting. Besides, Atkins is a young guy who might benefit from a scenery change. Either way, they've got a potentially competitive lineup top to bottom.

Who knows, if the young pitchers step up, there could be a dramatic turn around.

1989 would not have been as exciting if 1988 hadn't been so bad.

ken,

I respect your view, as always!

Unlike you however, I do not believe this club has accomplished anything yet. Accomplishment will only be realized by having more wins than losses. Anything else (ANYTHING) is just another losing season - consecutive losing season #13 in fact (#3 for AM).

If I'm wrong, I'll gladly buy you that drink/dinner we discussed.

If (perhaps a big if) The O's could negotiate a long-term deal in advance, putting together a package for the guy seems like an intriguing prospect. However, Wieters and Matusz are the two guys who should be absolutely off-limits. If they would do it for a combination of three ( maybe four if they were the right guys) players among Reimold, Arrietta, Tillman, Hobgood, Erbe, Bell, Britton, etc., I'm sure AM would jump on it. It seems like they want too much though. Like one poster pointed out, Wieters has a good chance of becoming that AG type middle of the lineup guy anyway, so we should not overspend this year.

I am back, also, though I think that stronger efforts need to be made in order to protect the unique identities of the participants in tthis blog community.

interesting story about white sox ... wow their players spout off as much as manager.

but isn't everybody nominally interested in AG?

also, the odds of atkins reverting to 2006 form are very, very low. not zero, i'll give you that. but low.

The chances of the O's acquiring Gonzalez are about as good as Schmuck actually seeing the next Haley's comet (sorry dude).

Between the package of young talent it would take to get him and then the amount of money it would take to re-sign him (say 200 million ), it's just not going to happen. The O's have the players to get him if they really want him, but does anyone really think Angelos is going to pay that kind of money for 1 player ?

The Padres would have to be absolutely bowled over to trade Gonzalez this year - they could reasonably compete next year. They could possibly re-sign him as the foundation of a really good young core coming along. He's a great player, loves the area, his nationality (Mexican) is worth more to the Padres than it would any other team.

The Orioles just aren't well positioned to do this - the pieces they'd have to trade (Matusz or Jones or, if he is doing well, Tillman) would be needed to compete to justify the trade. The next generation of prospects aren't close enough to land Gonzalez, nor close enough to make the Orioles competitive for a few years, even with Gonzalez.

They have to look to sign him (or Berkman, or someone) after this year or next.