At least his first name isn't Damien...................

How's this for a good Ohman (off ESPN)?

"Baltimore Orioles: 79-83 projected 2010 record

Why They Might Win: In any other division, the Orioles would probably be a contender. Although this probably isn't the year they put it all together, they are tantalizingly close to a return to respectability. They are projected to score 781 runs -- fifth in the AL, but fourth in the East. The outfield of Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold might be the best in the division. Starters Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman could have breakouts in their first full major league seasons.

Why They Might Not Win: Their starting pitching is not yet where it needs to be. Kevin Millwood isn't as good as his ERA made him seem last year, so PECOTA projects Brad Bergesen to be the Orioles' starter with the lowest ERA at 4.40. This is not a formula for success.

Player Who Could Surprise: Jones started last year strong (.303/.357/.481 before the All-Star break), but cooled in the second half. PECOTA thinks he can do it all season this year, pegging him for .294/.350/.501. Even more noteworthy is his high "Breakout" score, which suggests a good probability that his production will improve by at least 20 percent over his established level of performance.

Player Who Could Disappoint: Millwood, despite a superficially strong ERA last season, has lost the ability to strike out batters at a high rate. PECOTA sees the writing on the wall and projects him for a pedestrian 4.71 ERA and just 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings."

dear shamrock, whats pecota? how does it figure this stuff?

So where are the O's collecting wins if the lowest projected era for a starter is 4.40? 781 Runs is a little over 4.8 a game. No room for error out of the pen. Dont exactly see the logic behind these projections to say a team will be almost .500.

I think something to do with Baseball Prospectus.

"Our projection system, PECOTA, projects the performance of every player on every team for this season. When combined with our most recent playing-time forecasts, we can project the standings. Traditionally, the Yankees and Red Sox are the behemoths that exert tremendous gravity on the other three teams, effectively weighing down their schedules 36 times a year. Somehow, in this most extreme of competitive environments, new hope is managing to grow."

Boston Red Sox: 94-68 projected 2010 record

New York Yankees: 92-70 projected 2010 record

Tampa Bay Rays: 91-71 projected 2010 record

Toronto Blue Jays : 71-91 projected 2010 record

"Obviously, the opportunity is great, pitching in this division." Yeah, this is what guys say when they wind up here. Rest assured they're not saying it before they sign. (Not that I blame Ohman -- I just wonder why we bother with athlete quotes anymore.)

@Cush: PECOTA is Baseball Prospectus' forecasting program. Usually pretty good, but I think another system beat it last year. Anyway, it might have been the only one that had the Rays above .500 the year they went to the WS. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

If your starting pitching is in the mid 4's, you are doing OK... Bullpen should be fair much better this season.

Need to avoid the meltdowns from last year. 15% of the O's games last year had SP hitting the showers before completing 4 innings.

It also predicted with high probability a "breakout" season for A Jones of 20% increase in productivity. There is a lot of positivity surrounding Wieters too.

PECOTA only projects the o's 13 wins behind the Yankees and 15 behind the Sox? Seriously?

The O's also (mostly) shed these all stars from last year.

name G w-l era
Chris Lambert 4 0-0 4.76
Brian Bass 48 5-3 4.90
Dennis Sarfate 20 0-1 5.09
Jamie Walker 22 0-0 5.11 Chris Waters 5 1-0 5.40
Matt Albers 56 3-6 5.51 Chris Ray 46 0-4 7.27
Adam Eaton 8 2-5 8.56
Sean Henn 6 0-0 9.00
Alfredo Simon 2 0-1 9.95
Bob McCrory 7 0-0 17.18 And least, but last...
Radhames Liz 2 0-0 67.50

PECOTA must be a warehouser.

oh yeah and these guys...

Jason Berken 24 6-12 6.54
David Hernandez 20 4-10 5.42 Rich Hill 14 3-3 7.80

Hernandez should be good in the Pen.

A bunch of should be this and should be that in the entire pitching staff. That doesnt mean the o's should only be projected 10-15 games behind the yankees and sox. Projecting baseball standings now is a lot like preseason college football and basketball rankings. A bunch of crap to get fans riled up about the season starting.

Pete -

Castillo's been moderately OK, and Perez seems to have the most upside. I just don't see much in Ohman.

What about Ohman makes him the early favorite? Is it his experience?

Pete---Oh, man! I say Ohman makes the club based on comedy alone. Fans, check out Youtube...his reading of the Brave's lineup as Harry Carry is pricless.

Another thing about PECOTA......

It is typically better at projecting the overall record of the better teams. For instance, PECOTA projected the Yankees to win 99 games and the Red Sox for 94 wins in '09. But it had the Nationals at almost .500 and the Marlins as one of worst teams in baseball in '09. Also, it doesn't take into account injuries or trades, only what the assumed opening day roster will be.

One thing PECOTA is extremely accreate with is individual projections. But as with all projections, it's flawed, but historically the most successfull. Hence why Vegas oddmakers uses it as a guide.