Love the Bordick signing. I'd expect him to be on the big league staff in a few years.

Speaking of Jim Fassel, I heard he was coaching in the UFL last season. Oh, how the mighty have fallen...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz wake me up...when sep ends........

whats the deference between the O’s minor and major league teams? I am starting to get confused between the Tides and Orioles… all I know is one plays in Virginia and one plays in Maryland but its okay if both of them lose games….

Posted this in the previous thread, but it makes more sense here...

Fangraphs.com just posted their Top 10 O's Prospects:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/baltimore-orioles-top-10-prospects

A few thoughts...

- Chris Tillman isn't on the list because he's no longer a rookie.

- They're pretty high on Brandon Erbe and Zach Britton, as they project those two to be better than Jake Arrieta.

- The O's have a damn good core of pitching prospects.

And a couple of predictions:

- The 2011 starting rotation will look like this: Matusz, Tillman, Britton, Arrieta plus a free agent.

- Unless the O's make a big trade (AG, Fielder) or sign a big free agent (Peña, Dunn) Brandon Waring will be the starting first baseman in 2011.

Anybody tell you we need prospects, if the coach that big dude Pete Spunk or whatever than thats that. I mean we might have like 6 prospects playing at the MLB level but if somebody say we need prospects it could be just one prospect. I mean thats enough! If we need like 6 prospects than we need 6 prospects... than im hurt... but you know it aint about that.... it aint about that at all. ya mean?! but its easy to talk about it. its easy to sum it up about prospects we sittin here supposed to be talking about A-Gon Matt Holliday ya know franchise players and we talkin about prospects! I mean LISTEN we talkin about PROSPECTS! Not a game but prospects! Not a game. Not a game. Not a game. We talkin about prospects. Not the game i go out there and die for as an O's fan and watch every game like its my last. ITS NOT THE GAME WE TALKIN ABOUT PROSPECTS!! I mean how silly is that? I know we fans are supposed to be there and we are supposed to lead by example i know that. And im not shoving it aside like it dont mean anythang I know its important . I do I honestly do....

BUT WE TALKIN ABOUT PROSPECTS!!!!!!

What are we talking about man?! Prospects?!?!!

We talk haha we talking about propects man!

We aint talking about the game we out here talking about prospects!

Sike I hate the Orioles you saw my hat go RED SOX NATION 2010 World Series baby!!!

not brooks,

I think, depending no how he holds up this year, you might see Erbe in next year's rotation before Britton. My guess would be that Britton starts at AA this year and moves up to AAA after the break. If he's lights out at Norfolk, then sure, I could see him starting in 2011, but I think they would probably want to start the year with him back at AAA if he puts up anything north of a 3.00 ERA there.

When do you see Arrieta making the jump? I think it will be this September unless a prolonged injury brings him up sooner. Any short injury (1 or 2 starts) I think they might throw Hernandez (or Hendrickson... hopefully) in there to make a spot start.

Man still talkin bout prospects!!?! Why dont you two Marys get a room at the Hilton overlooking Camden Yards and talk about PROSSSSSSPCCCTSSS! Ya MEan??

Not Brooks

Age plays a factor in determining an organizations best prospects. Arrieta is 24, Erbe is 22 and Britton is 21. The same thing happened to Riemold as he got older. Once a player is past 25, they're no longer a prospect, normally.

Chris -

I see Britton as a fast riser (a la Matusz) because of solid control and crazy good ground ball rates.

For some reason, I just think that it'll take Erbe a while to refine his game.

Best case scenario for Arrieta is that he gets most of the season at AAA and comes up in September, pushing Guthrie to the pen. Of course, there will probably be some injuries and there may be a trade or two. If something like that happens, and Arrieta comes up in June or July, I don't think he'll be in that far over his head.

Not Brooks,

Thanks for the link! It's funny , but I could have written the piece about Waring, after getting to see him play when he was promoted to Bowie towards the end of the year. He is not a natural third baseman, and strikes out a lot, but he has as much raw power as anyone in the organization.

I hope he can begin to cut down on the strikeouts and continue to move up in the organization.

Wow, an official Dallas Williams mention in a blog. Who's next Pete, Al Pardo? ;-)

Perfect - hire a lifetime .260 hitter as your offensive coordinator. Was Mario Mendoza not available?

Earl -

Rudy Jaramillo is widely known as one of the best hitting coaches in the game. He hit .258 in 938 minor league at bats.

Dave Duncan is an absolute genius as the pitching coach for the Cardinals. He never threw a pitch in a professional baseball game.

Willy said: "whats the deference between the O’s minor and major league teams?"

Birdfan from Birth says: Hey Willy, there's a vas deferens.

Gotcha!

Not Brooks,

no mention of Bergensen? I think, because of his demonstrated control, he can be as effective as any of the O's pitching prospects.

@ Earl...
Earl Weaver never played a day in the majors and Tommy Lasorda was 0-4 with a 6+ era, both are HOF'ers as managers. However Ted Williams was a terrible hitting coach.
Being a good major league player does not make one a good major league coach

Enzo -

I thought about Bergesen, but I think the four that I listed have more upside than he does.

If (or should I say, when) the O's don't sign a top free agent starter after 2010, I'd expect Bergesen to remain in the rotation. Otherwise, I'd expect him to be part of a trade that brings in a corner infielder.

It should also be noted that I'm extremely high on Britton. The kid hasn't pitched above A ball yet and I've got him penciled into my 2011 rotation. Bergesen could easily jump into Britton's place if the latter doesn't progress as quickly as I expect.

Not Brooks,

Dave Duncan may have never thrown a pitch but he caught thousands playing for Oakland and even did a stint here in Baltimore. I think a catcher's perspective is unique, ala Joe Girardi, Paul Richards, and other ex catchers who coached and managed in the big Leagues.

I am supporting your point not arguing it that great players don't necessarily make great managers and coaches and vice versa.

not brooks
You must be talking about some other Bergesen.....because the Bergesen that pitched here last year didn't look like trade bait, but more like a #1 or 2 starter.

Absolutely right about catchers, Gil. Mike Scioscia and Joe Torre are on that list as well.

Middle infielders, especially shortstops, seem to do well also, which is one of the reasons I'm excited about Bordick.

bill -

Matusz and Tillman both are much more talented than Bergesen, and I fully expect both of them to outpitch Bergesen in 2010.

Bergesen may stick around as a middle to back of the rotation guy, depending on free agents and how Arrieta, Britton and Erbe progress. But, while Bergesen's small sample size in 2009 was solid, he isn't anything remotely close to a #1 or #2 starter.

Consider this: In his larger sample sizes (148 innings in AAA in 2008, 123 innings in MLB in 2009), Bergesen has put up about 4.5 strikeouts per 9. #1 and #2 starters miss bats. Bergesen doesn't.

Holliday just signed with the Cardinals. Seven years, $120M.

Oh well... Maybe the O's will finally sign a franchise free agent next year.

But, of course, this time next year, everyone will be saying that Tillman could be as good as Josh Beckett and that Snyder could be as good as Carlos Peña. Just like Reimold could be as good as Holliday...

The vicious cycle continues. Develop players who could be as good as marquee free agents and then you don't have to spend money on marquee free agents.

Not brooks...
Ever heard of Greg Maddux?

PS - Now that Holliday has signed, things are going to start moving quickly.

Time for Andy to do something to make it so we don't have a Wigginton/Aubrey platoon at first base.

Sheets or Bedard would be nice as well.

Glad we didn't pay that money for that long.
7 Years 112 million? I predict they will be trying to unload that one before the halfway point.

Not brooks Maddux averaged a little over 5 strikeouts per game over his career. He's not a number 1?
I'm not saying Bergesen will be as good as that of course, but strikeouts are not the whole story.

Not Brooks-

Bergensen is not a power pitcher. By no means will he strike out a ton of guys. He is a sinker ball pitcher and will get a ton of ground outs. He was the most consistent of all the young pitchers last season. I think he will continue where he left off. Every game he pitched in, we had a chance to win. He may not be as highly touted as the others you mentioned, but he is ahead of them now. If the others do pass him as you predict, it will just prove how great these young pitchers really are. I am also very high on Erbe and Britton. But Erbe is coming off injury and may not have the endurance to be a starter in the big leagues. Britton still is a couple years away, but Like Tillman, he could come up sooner then expected depending on how he does. I suspect those prospects won't be able to make their way until the contracts of Millwood and Guthrie expire. Pushing them to the bullpen is probably not in the cards.

bill -

Of course there are going to be anomalies every once in a while, but even Maddux struck out 6.1 per nine (while walking 1.8 per nine) for his career.

If you're looking for an even better example, check out Tom Glavine. His career K/9 was an ugly 5.3 and he walked 3.1 per nine and still wound up with a 3.54 career ERA.

Anyways, I fully expect Bergesen to be a solid big league pitcher for a number of years. I just don't think he's as talented as some of the other guys in the pipeline.

Regardless, none of them have a big league track record, so there's not really a whole lot to base anything on. I guess I'm just going on a hunch.

maddux was a FREAK and had cajones of steel. And got hammered in the post season when facing more disciplined linueps top to bottom. And he pitched in the NL, and he benefitted (as did glavine) from the WIDEST strike zone of all time.

I'm not a Maddux hater, but man I'd go insane at some of the calls he'd get on the "corners" strikes were called on pitches hitters have been trained since they were 7 to lay off.

I'll say it again, if healthy, Delgado drives in 115 in the 4 hole here.

If I were Holliday I would have stayed with the Cards too. Loads of cash... the chance to play with Pooholes... competing in the NL Central, c'mon, actually COMPETING for a championship... Sign me up too.

cush -

You've got to give it to Maddux though.

Name one other pitcher in the history of the game who could locate a pitch right on the black of the plate and then toss the next one an inch more outside and the next one another inch more outside.

Add in the fact that he put up a 2.47 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, 1900 strikeouts and just 400some walks in 2500some innings in the height of the steroid era ('92-'02).

The guy probably did get a bit of help from the umps, but he was nothing short of amazing. And he did it all while looking like a middle school math teacher.

Oh, and Maddux had a few bad games in October, but I'm not sure how putting up a 3.27 career postseason ERA equals getting "hammered" in the playoffs.

A few more fun facts:

- From '93 to '99, Maddux's postseason ERA was 2.39. In that span, he gave up more than three earned runs just three times in 21 starts.

- From '96 to '99, Maddux tossed 100 playoff innings and put up a 1.89 postseason ERA.

- After an ugly start against St. Louis in the 2000 NLDS, Maddux went on another solid playoff run, putting up a 3.83 ERA in his next five starts and giving up more than two runs in just one of those games.

- In total, Maddux pitched in 35 postseason games (30 starts) and gave up more than three earned runs just seven times.

"Hammered" in the playoffs, huh?

got to hand it to you nb. don't agree with you all the time, but you sure can back some of it up....
Maddux was just what good pitching is all about ...the best PITCHER of our era no doubt...love the postseason stats....seems like he held his own and then some.

We've had enough guys the last few years who could throw in the 90's consistently but just flat out didn't know how to pitch. Looks like the young ones coming up now and in the pipeline are true pitchers and not just hard throwers...and that is EXACTLY why I and so many others are being patient and we are positive..no matter how the game has evolved...good pitching still beats good hitting 7 days a week...
forget the lineup for a minute. The pitching staff that looks to break camp this year looks to be FAR above last years staff....and if we land Bedard and maybe one other solid relief pitcher...I feel good about getting to at least 500

"The pitching staff that looks to break camp this year looks to be FAR above last years staff...."

100% with you on that, bill. And that's one of the things about some people here that irritates me to no end.

The projected rotation this year is, in no particular order: Millwood, Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen and Tillman. I say no particular order because I don't expect for one second that Millwood is going to be the best pitcher on the staff. I just listed them that way because that's the rotation in which I expect them to pitch.

When the team went north last year, the starting rotation was (correct me if I'm wrong) Guthrie, Koji, Hendrickson, Eaton and Simon. Just on paper, the 2010 bunch looks better than that group of retreads.

So the thing that gets to me the most is that some people (you know who you are) aren't expecting a lick of improvement from Matusz, Tillman and Bergesen.

Sure, those three may not progress as some of us expect, but to say that the starting rotation isn't in any better shape than it was last year is shortsighted, if not just plain ignorant.

PS - I would absolutely love to have a Roy Halladay or a Cliff Lee at the front of the rotation, and I think that the O's should have (and could have, given current crop of prospects and open payroll space) made a bigger move than Millwood in regard to the starting pitching, but it didn't happen, so let's move on.

Bill Frederick,

I totally agree with you assessment of Brad Bergersen, with the current staff including all prospects I've seen from Frederick through Baltimore, Bergersen throws strikes and already knows how to pitch at the major league level and I wouldn't be suprised, if healthy is our biggest winner in 2010! Assessing talent isn't an exact science but with his success last year, he has demonstrated more ability than 95% of what we have rolled out there in some time.

Date much?

A couple of you on here should just exchange phone numbers and possibly go on a date (not that there's anything wrong with that).

bf, you do realize people read your post now (when they don't just skip by them) to get a laugh? Yo get that, right? If you don't already have a gig, Tom Davis needs an intern.

Not Brooks/Bill,

"The pitching staff that looks to break camp this year looks to be FAR above last years staff...."

Any rotation without Eaton, Hill and Hendrickson would meet the above statement. I'm agreeing with you here, just a blinding flash of the obvious but counting too much on the young guys vice working them in. I'm still not sold on Guthrie, his stuff is too straight and he throws too fat when ahead in the count. Bergersen and Matusz are the real deal, how fast the others develop the key, but if any can pitch versus throw hard will begin to get us closer to .500.

I'm tired of the 93-97 MPH guys who can't find the plate! But if all works out, I think Guthrie will be the one looking for a home!

The truth will set you free!

not brooks-

Again, those three pitchers Bergensen, Matusz, and Tillman are all potential aces. You would have to give up the farm for a player like Holliday and Lee. It makes no sense to trade for an ace when we have a number of pitchers starting in the rotation that could turn into that guy. If we wanted to get an ace, we should sign one as a free agent so we don't give up any of the young pitchers.

I agree with you that Millwood and Guthrie will not be the teams win leader. I think it will be Bergensen. On the other hand, Matusz will make a big run at ROY. Tillman is still only 21 so it is hard to say how he will do next season. He probably should start the year at AAA to work on his command, but we don't have anyone to replace right him in the rotation unless we sign another free agent. Don't see that happening either. The rotation is most likely set.

As long as the team ERA goes from the worst in all of baseball to the middle of the pack, we have a pretty good chance of getting to .500 next season. Now that Holliday is signed, I hope we can make a run at LaRoche since he turned down the Giants offer. I doubt that AM will go after Delgado. If there is a corner IF to sign, LaRoche is probably the best available at this point. Sign him and get another quality reliever.

HEY PETE,

Don't forget about an update on the organizations most important minor league club. You know, the one in BALTIMORE?

They should go wire to wire at the AAA level this year..... maybe!

Like I said brooksie, not a hater...if he was on our side, I'd haved loved getting those pitches. He hypnotized the umps the way he'd keep going outside...and as for the playoffs, i got a little excited...maybe my anti-braves slant got to me. Curse you and your stats!

When i read the names in the rotation at the start of last year, its laughable. The Os will be 12 games better with what they have now compared to last year.

NB
The thing is everyone wants to have Cliff Lee and Halladay. Few can afford them. The ones that can if you include us are not appealing to them because players want to get paid AND WIN . That is why the discussion on Texiera was so ludicrous. The main reason (or 2nd reason) Texiera is now a Yankee is sitting on his finger. He said as much. Now, I really see the Yankees coming back to the pack soon (Boston a little later) because of age and they don't have unlimited resourses (only more than the others).

Keith Rowe
Is that really you? I sort of thought you only made angry and dismissive posts. Oh well,I suppose you may have thought I only made "lame attempts at humor" posts. Yeah, Bergesen to me just "has it". I don't know what you call "it", a combination of hard throwing, changing speeds, knowing when to throw certain pitches and VERY competitive without being cocky. His stuff is just a part of the whole makeup it seems to me. Sometimes guys like him outshine the supposed phenoms...although i can't wait to see Hobgood up here.

Now if W comes on here and says after some serious reflection he believes the O's may be much improved this summer and could possibly win more than we lose...........ahhh... nevermind

Keith,
Totally agree on Guthrie. I sort of wanted him packaged in a deal (still could happen if we land Bedard). I'm not sure last year was an anomaly. Ihope he returns to 08 but I doubt it. If he's here he could be in the pen by July.

Frank -

I'd include Brad Bergesen, who could be an ace, in a trade for Cliff Lee, who is an ace, any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

I'd take Matt Holliday, who is a .300/25/100 hitter over Nolan Reimold, who could be a .300/25/100 hitter, any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

In 2007 the Os had a 95 million payroll and were still the 3rd most profitable team in baseball with attendance at 2.1 million

Can someone tell me why they think the Os cant spend more money? other than false assumptions, of course. This is a rhetorical question, the Os can obviously spend way more than they do

Imagine if the team actually put together a legit contender and drew 1997 type crowds of 3.7 million. Doesnt it stand to reason if u can afford 95 million with attendance at 2.1 million and still be the 3rd most profitable team in baseabll that u can afford a payroll of approx 165 million drawing 3.7 million ?

Current payroll is around 60 million

95 million dollar payroll and still 3rd most profitable....someone is getting duped here

Bill Frederick,

Come on man, cut me a little slack! I'm just trying to keep it real! There is a lot to be hopeful for, but in our division it isn't enough, our free agent signings aren't keeping up with the rest of the division even if most of our prospects pan out! I really like the job AM has done with the draft and player development, but he's not holding the checkbook. He knows how to spend money (see Cubs payroll) I just get the @ss with the elcheapo signings! The Warehouse and Angelos build us up with words that are never followed up with actions and the media gives them one pass after another! But the homegrown talent is better and will get better, but it just isn't enough!

The truth will set you free!

Jason C.,

You couldn't be more right, BUT you have to consider another factor for Peter the Grate! He has to win and I'm not talking about on the field. He fought to NOT allow the Nationals to move to DC and part of buyout is to show he would lose money, For his concessions in a battle he was going to lose he got MASN and a share of Nationals television rights, BUT he also gets money from MLB to compensate for such losses. So in effect if he were to spend money, have a competitive team and good attendance, he wouldn't be able to get the blood out of MLB for allowing the Nats to exist. So I believe he would rather win at beating MLB and Bud Selig than beating the AL East opponents. Its really and indifference to PA because he gets paid either way and this way he gets back at MLB!

Very very sad!

The truth will set you free!

Jason and Keith,
Check the calendars....It's January....
We can't spend 200 million....can't happen
The yanks also can't spend 300 million and they are aging. They got their 1 World Series and I think that's all they could buy. Yeah, I know they go to the playoffs every year, but that won't last forever either. The O's will be in the 120 million range by next spring. No one worth it this time around.
I certainly wouldn't think it's smart to lock up
Holliday for 120 million and 7 years!!!???
If you think we should have offfered 8 years and 140 million?...fine, but I think that would have been the stupidest move possible. I'm glad we have a GM who is thinking ahead and not just looking to placate the naysayers.
I like Aubry at 1st. We'll add a power hitting DH/1st baseman before April 1st. Jan.5th dudes

Not Brooks, as our resident Matt Holliday lobbiest you seem to be taking the news well. I would like to hear your opinion 2 years from now if you still would've signed him for that kind of cash.

It's been said before but I'll say it again, while Holliday is a very good player, he's not great and he's not a legit number 4 hitter. While he is better than Reimold at this point in their respective careers, I don't think he would have been able to ultimately justify spending that kind of money when Reimold is only going to get better. (By the way NB stat man, look up the AL OPS's last year for the two. In a difference of 9 at bats, Holliday held an OPS advantage of .001 over Reimold).

Let's see.....a .001 OPS improvement for about $16.5 mil/year, OR we save that money, keep developing the young pitching and spend it on a Hanley Ramirez next year who will improve the SS position OPS by about .400. No brainer to me. Or on a legit first baseman, take your pick.

As far as the "pipeline" pitching conversation, I agree that if they stay healthy Erbe and Britton should be solid contributors in Baltimore before the end of the 2011 season. My 2011 rotation looks something like:

1. Matusz
2. Tillman
3. Bergesen
4. Erbe
5. Patton/Arietta/Britton

We currently have an abundance of quality relief arms in the minors right now too. No reason to believe that all the excess of talent in starting pitching won't be used to bring in quality MLB proven players to round out the lineup.

I have a feeling that a Bedard signing is still going to happen for the O's in the next 6 weeks or so. Something like the Atkins deal $4-5mil for 2010 with a team option for 2011 at around $8-9mil.

If Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder turn into quality major leaguers (and Billy Rowell, "oh Billy", "please Billy", can do anything to remotely live up to his draft status, keep an eye on him in Bowie this year) this team is completely set up for a big time run from 2011-2014/15.

bf,

What a crock of shxt!

Accept for Tex last year, all you warehouser types said the exact same thing - that there was no one worth buying. Same thing this year. Will be the same next!

You can't even speak about clubs like the Yankee's. Such is way over your head dude. And they're already lasting forever genius. But is that you talking about 2013 and 14' again, when you think the O's will be competitive? Do you know you're embarrassing yourself?

You and friends will ALWAYS find excuses, will always come up with ways to apologize for arguably the worst organization in all of sports. But what's the excuse for your transparency?

These people can not be defended, yet you come on these pages and embarrass yourself day in and day out.

You, Jeff and others should simply get a room and be done with it...... on the Orioles of course!

IT'S NOT YOUR F'IN MONEY DJ!

STOP ACTING LIKE IT IS!

YOU WON'T GET A DISCOUNT, BEER WILL COST THE SAME, AND THE TEAM WILL STILL STINK.............. SO WHY DO YOU GET PLEASURE WHEN OWNERSHIP SAVES MONEY?

THEY ARE #26 DUDE! #26! HOW DOES THAT GET BY YOU SO EASILY!

WAKE THE FXCK UP PEOPLE! IT'S NOT YOUR MONEY TO SAVE!

djph -

I'll let you know in two years. Of course, hindsight is 20/20...

Anyways, I still think that, at this point, to the Orioles, Holliday would have been worth $18M per over six years. I've stated my reasons for that several times, so I expect you've read them at least once or twice.

I've also stated several times the impact on Holliday of being traded to Oakland and everything that came with it. In his first 30 games in Oakland, Holliday hit .240 with a .697 OPS. Not a surprising struggle for a guy with a new team in a new league, hitting in one of the worst hitters parks in the game. But then, In his final 63 games with the A's, Holliday hit .311 with a .901 OPS. All while hitting between two guys with .420 slugging percentages. Not bad, in my book.

wow - there's another 'this team is set up to make a run in 2011 - 2014/15. Reading that crap is enough to turn ones stomach. Relying on developing players only, banking on the fact that they'll all be what you hope is so amazingly blind, it defies explanation. In 4 or 5 years, attendance and interest will be so poor, only the few positive bloggers here will be left. Fans already don't care and you want them to wait another 4 or 5 years. What kind company do you work for that would allow such an attitude and forecast?

I'm talking about spending money (and I assume PA will, I know you don't), in the right places. I look at Holliday dollars saved this year (while the lineup and pitching staffs comprised almost entirely of guys between 22-27), as dollars that will be better spent next year on Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzales were they'll help the team the most.

As I said before Wayne, we're going to have to wait 2010 out. If the team wins between 75-82 games, as I suspect they will, then we are in a postion that is enviable by every team in major league baseball, including the Yankees and Sox.

If you are right however, and our abundance of prospects and/or cash aren't used to improve the team before the 2011 season, then I will tell you that you are the man. That's a promise.

My view of what's best for the team right now doesn't include waiting 4 or 3 or even 2 more full seasons to be in the postseason mix, just one more.

I know you'll say "Oh yeah one more, then one more, then one more" but I honestly won't. I'll tell you to your face if you want that you're the man if I'm wrong.

One more thing Wayne. For all your negativity, I can't remember you saying a word about Dave Trembley. McTremble is the one who concerns me more than anything else. And our biggest detremint to winning in the future. More so that McPhail or Angelos even. What say you?

wayne,

I sometimes find your negitivity and discontent annoying (and melodrama). Your "spend now, win now" attitude has been tried before and it got the team nowhere. The fact of the matter is this team is a lot further then a Lackey or a Holliday signing away into respectability. I not an apoligist for the way this franchise was jacked up in the past. But maybe, just maybe we should wait out this "plan" and see just how good these rookies and prospects are supposed to be. Because honestly, I'm absolutely stumped as to where we should improve this team first, except for pitching. And that's the #1 thing that I agree with MacPhail is we should build this team around the pitching, once it comes to realization.

And that's what kills me about this rebuilding. There are so many areas where this team needs to improve that, at least in my opinion, it only makes sense to first build from the system and then evaluate what they need in the market. But just going out and signing a big name just for the sake of it seems like the cookie cutter management Jim Duquette and Flanagan demonstrated in the '03/'04 offseasons.

brooksie,

When they read your stats, they're quickly thinking of ways to ignor or dispute your findings. You can repeat yourself all you want. They WILL NOT listen to facts...

Some of the people here are told to keep to a certain theme and to steer the conversation away from anything that will divert their agenda.

A conspiracy theory? Hell no! It's just business, Orioles style!

So don't be discouraged, because your #'s were right on about Holiday. Be discouraged however, because these blogs aren't always what you think they are.

It's easy to figure out who I'm talking about. Gil knows who some of them all as well. It's become beyond obvious!

Dave,

1) I could care less if you tire of my negativity. Means nothing to me!

2) I've been very clear from the beginning that you don't just spend to spend. I agree that developing solid young players is key to long term winning.

To not surround the youngsters with proven, quality players is irresponsible at it's highest level however. To not protect players like Markakis and Weiters is stone cold bullshxt.

I've never said be top 10 in spending. But what's wrong with doing the right thing and being in the middle of the pact, ESPECIALLY in a market that is not small (like the warehouse wants you to believe.

3) See # 1.

wayne

So what are you arguing about then? You agree that they should develope their talent. Fine. But who in this market can they sign to supposedly protect Markakis and Wieters? The Cardinals just completed a bidding war against themselves to sign Holliday to a stupid $115/7year contract. And you honestly think that's the answer? I'm the one calling bullsh-t on that.

Next is Jason Bay who is a horrible outfielder on the wrong side of 30 and will probably take the Mets from a 72 win team to a 75 win team at best. Third is Adrian Beltre who, outside his glove, is still living off his 2004 season.

The market this year sucked. Yes, it sucked. The warehouse believes it and so does every other team who wasn't knocking down the door to pay top dollar to 3 overhyped players that aren't even close to the best in either league. Explain that one.

95 million payroll in 07 and still 3rd most profitable team in MLB. WE could've signed Holliday and Lackey and still been at or below it. FOr some reason, ppl would rather see petey pocket the money than put it back in the team.

SOme ppl are still going for the old "we're saving it up" bs. well its been getting "saved up" for some time now, but never spent. its just being put in peteys pockets. how long is it going to take b4 u realize its never gonna get spent

even the most of the shameless apologists cant come up with a good excuse for this farce, so biil f goes on some idiotic tangent about the yankees, lol. where do these momos come from ? I thought bill sold meth, but clearly he's into hallucinogenics LMAO

Someone else said it best. Get that AL low ERA to the middle/upper part of the pack and you'll see a dramatic differnce in the standings. If you don't think that Millwood, Guthrie, Bergesen, Matusz,Tillman, and a bullpen of Gonzalez, Johnson, Koji, Mickolio, Hernandez, Meredith, Berken, Hendrickson can do it, then I understand your arguement. I however think that they can.

jason bay is a horrible fielder now, ?

Cmon, he had more assists than markakis and made no errors playing a tough LF in fenway park.

He stole twice as many bases as markakis and also hit twice as many HR"s. Bay's ops was .921 and Markakis's was .801. Bay's road splits were better b4 u attribute everything to fenway pk

We couldve signed Bay and our payroll still wouldve been about 20 million less than 07.

Keep the excuses coming though, I like to see how misguided the apologists are. U guys are so consumed with saving peteys money that u ignore the facts and seem oblivious to the idea of improving the team with good players via free agency

If u actually acquire some elite FA's, it wont take 394 yrs to rebuild. BUt if you are always in a state of "rebuilding" then "it doesnt make sense to sign FA's since u r not ready to contend" Convenient huh

Jason

Assists don't determine how good or bad an OFer is and his range is horrible. Last year his UZR was at a -13 which is Jermaine Dye territory. Yes, Bay is a horrible fielder.

Bill Frederick,

We can't go into the season with Aubrey at 1B, come on man! As we wait it out, the only options left on the table appear to be Laroach and Delgado. Laroach is looking like the last best bet. PA needs to get the checkbook out and AM needs to get the deal done. Otherwise we never turn the corner, we'll just get next year again next year or their aren't any good FA available or we will wait the market out. I need committment, show me the money and the Truth will set you free!

Jason,

doesn't matter.... the warehousers will poke holes in every FA the O's pass on. Think of one they haven't come up with an excuse for.

There's NEVER anyone good enough for the last place O's. There's never anyone good enough for the worst team in the amercian league. There's never anyone good enough for the team that will continue their amazing streak this year.

OR, if they are borderline good enough, the warehousers don't believe we should pay market value...as if it's THEIR MONEY. Lol!

Oh, then there's the 'it'll be a better crop next year'... as if next year will matter.

The warehouse bloggers have become a joke and they don't get that they're only talking to themselves. They actually think they're fooling someone.... They think they're doing a great job for the organization.

They look at each others post and say 'good one' to each other on facebook. Meanwhile Bay or Holliday would have both been the best player on the Orioles last year BY FAR!

I'm not even saying we should have signed each....... but they each would have been the Oriole MVP, by a landslide... and these joker warehousers think they're fooling people.

gnight all, carry on..... even you warehouse posters.... keep fooling yourselves guys!

Bill,

It's funny that you see look at the calendar, I'm a calendar freak, have 9 in my office at work! But if you looked at the calendar on Jan 6 2009, 2008 and since the year we signed Tejada, Palmero and Lopez and promised Tejada that it was just the beginning, its never happened. So the problem when EVERYONE says no free agents want to sign in Baltimore, its because Baltimore has NOT demonstrated a committment to winning and what makes ANYONE think that just when AM and PA think the time is right they will come begging to play in Baltimore then. If not now, when?

I say it, you know its true, look at MIllwood, his own agent refused to admit the trade to Baltimore, because he didn't want to come here, but he couldn't reject it because we weren't on his list. We need to send a strong signal now that we are players, not just bottom of the barrel players.

The truth will set you free!

djph -

This year it's Holliday dollars saved. Last year it was Tex dollars saved. I'm sure there were several other in previous years.

When are they actually going to spend some of those saved dollars?

And why do you keep bringing up Hanley Ramirez? He doesn't make a substantial amount of money until 2012 and the Marlins would most certainly trade everyone else on their roster before they would even think of trading him.

jason -

Jason Bay is most certainly a horrible fielder.

Check out his numbers and what some scouts say about him.

Apparently, the Mets scouts are the only baseball people in the world who think that Bay is a good outfielder.

PS - Assists mean nothing. Especially from left field.

They are using the money give Wiggy a 5 year/50 mil extension because he's so versatile that he will now do color commentary in the dugout before and after his ABs so they save on Buck's replacement.

I actually expect that things will heat up very quickly now that the big names are off the board. There are some good FAs out there, but I still think (hope) the O's look into trading Luke Scott because for whatever reason, teams want the guy. I prefer a more stable DH because the guy is not going to change at his age.

not brooks,

I dont need to read what scouts say. Ive seen him play. He gets a good jump and many ppl have mangled playing LF at fenway and he made it look routine

If u dont think assists count, Id beg to differ, especially when they are keeping runs off the board at home plate

U might read a lot about baseball, but Ive played a lot of baseball and i trust my eyes more than some of these goofy fielding stats they come up with. I dont ignore what I see

If assists arent important, y does everyone think kakes is the 2nd coming ?

In your haste to be a stat dummy, you've missed the entire point. Everyone here creams over Kakes but dogs Bay, yet Bay's numbers are a lot better than kakes in many areas. Therefore, If u think Kakes is good, you should think bay is good. IF youre rational, that is. IF youre trying to save peteys money, it wont interest you

BTW,

Bay had 310 PO of 325 TC
Kakes had 298 PO of 317 TC

Bay had no errors and kakes had 6

If u think UZR negates all of the above stats, I dont know what to tell you

IF you think assists are irrelevant, then u obviously never actually played any baseball

Oh yeah, offensively Bay had twice the HR's and SB's and a 920 ops compared to kakes 800 ops, but we couldnt use a guy like Bay, LOL

Oh yeah we cant sign Bay because a statistical formula says that bay's range is bad even though he got to a higher pct of balls than kakes, had more put outs, more assists and fewer errors. Makes sense

Not Brooks, you are exactly right. Apparently Hanley Ramirez is under contract through 2014. Making 15-16 milllion each year between 2012-2014. I thought because he was entering his 5th year of ML service he would be free agent elligible, not realizing that he signed his current deal in 2007.

For the most part, my point was that there are a couple positions, most notably SS, 1B and 3B that dollars would be better spent than the outfield and for all of our misfortune as fans, there were no real interesting long term soultions at any of those positions in free agency this offseason.

I believe that Jose Reyes may be available in the next couple of years (I'm sure you'll correct me if I'm wrong), anyway, I don't think that the O's will hesitate to pull the trigger on a big trade or free agent signing once they feel they're ready to contend. But of course, I do understand those that feel otherwise.

Yes, Jose Reyes is a free agent next off season. I, too, would much rather see them spend the money on a position of need. Especially since Izturis will be a free agent after this season as well.

I'm not getting into the Jason Bay versus Nick Markakis argument because it's not solving anything. It's like rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.

Anyhoot, one does need to be careful when evaluating defensive stats with OF's. This is true for two reasons.

One, certain stats are low numbers anyway -- particularly, assists and errors. Two, some stats are the product of the team as a whole (since we're talking about two players from two different teams) and/or the ballpark they play most of their games.

On the latter point, Camden Yards has a much smaller foul territory and shorter outfield fences than say Oakland. Also, Baltimore's pitching staff yielded more base runners than say Boston or New York. Those can have a lasting effect for an OF when it comes to accumulating stats.

On the former point, you can have differing approaches creating skewed stats. There were times Dwight Evans didn't have gaudy assists because no one even tried to take the extra base on him. On the other hand, it might not have mattered if Joe Orsalak was leading the league in assists; opponents were going to keep on challenging him.

Errors can be tricky, too. If a player lays back and let's the ball come to him, he is less likely to draw an error. Same thing if a player takes the safe route and doesn't challenge a base runner with a throw.

I love stats. I deal with them for a living and I deal with them for fun. But the key to any stat is understanding what it is measuring and, just as importantly, what it is not measuring.

I usually don't come back to correct typos and grammatical errors from the lack of proofreading, but I should spell Orsulak correctly.

Keith,
Jesus Christ said "the truth will set you free". He wasn't talking about baseball, that's for sure. Your posts are just filled with opinion, not the truth many times.

I've met him by the way, and you aint him.

I dont need to read what scouts say. Ive seen him play. He gets a good jump and many ppl have mangled playing LF at fenway and he made it look routine

U might read a lot about baseball, but Ive played a lot of baseball and i trust my eyes more than some of these goofy fielding stats they come up with. I dont ignore what I see
Posted by: Jason C in South FLorida | January 6, 2010 2:43 AM

That's the problem, you don't read. And anytime anyone counters your opinion (and that's all it is), you completely discard it and say "oh, well I've seen so and so.....". These stats are developed for a reason and tells a lot more then what you've seen 2 or 3 times in person. Listening to you explain your logic is like someone saying "the world is flat because that's how it looks to me". Think outside you're little bubble and maybe you'll learn something. I believe what I see too and his stats don't match up to the better fielders in the league.

the above comment is from me, BTW

Bill Frederick,

Once again, editorial comment and slamming anyone who offers corrective criticism. Take another hit off of that bong, and hook up with the other 345 Orioles fans in the Yard when they play the YANKS/RED SOX/ANGELS AND LOSE 34 OF 38 GAMES and root root root for the home team!

Your problem, you can't handle the truth! But the truth will set you free!

Bill Frederick,

Once again, editorial comment and slamming anyone who offers corrective criticism. Take another hit off of that bong, and hook up with the other 345 Orioles fans in the Yard when they play the YANKS/RED SOX/ANGELS AND LOSE 34 OF 38 GAMES and root root root for the home team!

Your problem, you can't handle the truth! But the truth will set you free!

Bill Frederick,

Not so fast my misinformed blogger

The truth is there at all times – whether or not we recognize it – but unless we know the truth, and apply it, truth itself is powerless.
Actually, the quote is from the book of John and has to do with the Trinity, so I see you know as little about the bible as you do the Orioles.

As I said the truth will set you free!

jason -

When you're talking outfielders, would you rather have a guy who throws a runner out once a week or a guy who stops runners from advancing or even getting on base (because he covers more ground and takes better routes) every single game?

I've played and watched a lot of baseball as well, but I know that it's impossible to judge a player's defense by watching him play a few times a year.

In response to your "If Markakis is good, Bay is good" bit, you've missed the entire point. Playing the outfield is about a lot more than just assists. Heck, the fact that Markakis plays right field and Bay plays left makes Markakis better.

Frank -

Reyes has an option for 2011. He might be a free agent after 2010, but he might not.

You are right. I just noticed that he has an option for 11 million. He probably will have it picked up, assuming he plays how he did before the injury. There are no other legitimate SS so it looks like we will probably resign Izturis. Maybe, they will decide to give the job to Andino or Turner if they go another direction. Looking at next years free agent class, there are a bunch of quality players available. One player I would love to see the O's make a run at is Matt Cain. I would take him over Beckett and Lee. For 1B we could make a run for Dunn, Pena, or Cantu.

Keith,
As i said
You don't "tell the truth" on here. You just basically spout your opinion like me and many others. You see, the truth about how good or bad the O's will be this year is not yet determined. I think they will be over 500 and contending for a wild card spot. That makes me all sorts of things to those of you who don't> So be it. I'd rather be hopeful of success than sure of failure.

Wayne,
Sorry wrong again. I've never said we shouldn't spend money on this years free agent crop. I like both of Macphails signings. I think it would have been stupid and reckless to offer Holliday 8 years at 130 million (which it may have taken to outbid his current team, and even then he may have wanted to stay put).
Get your facts straight.
I have said I would like to see us pick up Bedard. But I don't have access to his Medical records, so I don't really know about that.
I feel good about the team and I like the idea of Aubry at 1st. I know....that makes me.....insert list of accusatory names here..
But I'm looking forward to the season, are you?
If you say no, find a sport or a team that you can enjoy....Just be a Yankees fan dude cause they will be in the playoffs for the next 20 years right???...haha
actually they just missed

Wayne,

I see the light, Bill Frederick is the blogging alias for AM. Now he supports all of AM signings and he even thinks a broken down arm like Bedard who won't be able to pitch until July and won't help much, I think the Bill Frederick/AM plan is to plan to lose! I get it now.

The truth has set me free!

I've known such about bf for quite awhile now. I don't even take him seriously.

Guys like him are fine though. They live for club development rather than actual wins. They say winning matters, but it obviously doesn't.

They say go root for another team, but I support the O's more than he likely could ever dream to.

Keith, I've resigned myself to the fact the this team will be horrible again this year.

They're relying heavily on 2 rookies who are coming off of major injury's, a CF'er who can't stay on the field, a starting rotation comprised of 3 rookies (basically), the worst offensive corners in the game, no proven power hitter to protect players like Markakis and Weiters......I mean it goes on and on.

The fact that guys like bf spin all of the above in the O's favor simply destroys whatever cred they have. People look at their post and actually laugh.

Makes for entertaining blogs however. Problem is, the Orioles are so ridiculously stupid that they don't realize how their hired warehousers help to dig the loser mentality hole deeper and deeper.

It will be a terrible season Keith and Jason. IF by chance this teams wins 75 games though, they'll treat it as if they made the post season. Me? I'll treat it the way it should be treated..... as year #13!

If this blog exist next year, these SAME people (along with the media) will be saying 'it's not about 2011'.

The Plan continues......

wayne-
You are correct. The Plan continues. Unfortunately, no matter who likes it, who hates it or what is said about it, The Plan will continue.

Angelos is the owner. McPhail is the General Manager. Angelos endorses McPhail's Plan. It will not change until McPhail is fired or finds a new job.

It doesn't matter what is said on this or any other blog, or any other forum. They're going to do what they want to do. It's as simple as that.

Rage against the machine all you want. It's not going to make any difference. Don't renew your season tickets. Talk all your friends into it. It won't make any difference.

Keep up the fight. Point out all the supposed warehousers, all the Kool Aid drinkers. It won't make any difference.

In the end, someone will take over you and your friends' season tickets. The warehousers will still spin, the drinkers will still drink. McPhail will sign who he wants to sign. Deal with it, or don't. It doesn't matter.