"quality injured pitchers". An oxymoron if I've ever come across one. You obviously are speaking of either Bedard or Sheets. Am I right

Its a lock Bedard and/or Sheets would sign a 1 or 2 year deal and all we have to lose is the 5+ million or so it will cost to get them. I don't see why we wouldn't sign at least 1 of these guys. That still leaves 2 spots in the rotation for the young guys to step up (even though there were 4 spots available for that to happen last year and look at us now...) Bedard is probably the most likely and would help Macphail's cause by having Adam Jones AND Bedard on the same roster. Hopefully this gets done and hopefully we find a bat somewhere, but I stopped getting my hopes up about 7 years ago. Just wait until the trade deadline or next year when Pujols, Fielder, Mauer, and Gonzalez are available. Schmuck might need some help with the blog.

ONE POINT TWENTY ONE GIGGAWATTS!!!!!

If A Gon is a free agent at the end of the year, why trade for him at mid-season just to give him to the Red Sox in 2011? Besides, if the Orioles are doing well then, they won't need him.

Just trying to think like Peter Angelos. It makes my brain hurt.

............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Pretty sure he's not a free agent until after 2011.

I don’t get it….. People don’t want to sign a power bat or a corner infielder rather having Wiggy or a rookie play 1st and the Atkins diet at 3rd but most people seem cool about bringing back Bedard lol. Bedard is the typical pitcher the Orioles bring in each year. Why don’t the Orioles address real team needs?

Hey JZ how would it help Macphail's cause by having Jones and Bedard on the same roster? If you're referring to the trade involving both players then that is straight up illogical. Oh and as for Pujols (not a free agent until 2012) and Mauer being available at the trade deadline next year you're high if you believe that either team would put those players on the market. Even if we were living in your fantasy world and they were available it would take our entire farm system plus major league ready talent (which would go against everything Macphail is trying to accomplish) to get one of them. And trading for either one would be pointless anyway because there is no way in God’s green earth that they would sign a contract extension with us. So basically you’re proposing that we trade our entire farm system for Joe Mauer next season in order to watch him leave as a free agent three months later? Get it together man.

This is what the Orioles are shaping up to be in 2010

C Matt Wieters
1B Ty Wigginton
2B Brian Roberts
3B Garrett Atkins
SS Cesar Izturis
LF Nolan Reimold
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Luke Scott

SP1 Kevin Millwood
SP2 Jeremy Guthrie
SP3 Jason Berken
SP4 David Hernandez
SP5 Chris Tillman
CL Mike Gonzalez

Add Bedard to this cheap mix of bums and you got 100+ loses and the worst Orioles lineup I’ve ever seen. Tickets should be discounted.

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I think you've got a slight credibility problem here. First off, if you think Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and Adam Jones are bums, you might want to talk to the 29 other clubs that would love to have any of them. Also, you left the best pitcher in the organzation out of the rotation, so I guess you don't really have enough of a grasp of the situation to make a reasoned judgment. I'll take the 100 losses bet. If last year's team couldn't lose 100 games, this year's team certainly won't.

Hey I was just looking at ESPN insider and the Pittsburgh Pirates are talking about their plan hahah It looks like all bad teams with no future are following the Orioles strategy!

This is what the Orioles are shaping up to be in 2010

C Matt Wieters
1B Ty Wigginton - WHY?
2B Brian Roberts *****
3B Garrett Atkins -OMG
SS Cesar Izturis -so so
LF Nolan Reimold -Stay off the DL
CF Adam Jones same
RF Nick Markakis -Needs a DH behind him
DH Luke Scott- WHY?

"The O's need a big bat and there's no guarantee there'll be somebody better [than Holliday] available in next year's free agent market."

Exactly, Pete.

That's why it's so important to sign Holliday, even if they have to overpay.

Not to mention the fact that the power bats in next year's market aren't Boras clients and, therefor, won't necessarily go where the most money is.

And to "LOL!" -

If you're going to continue to make fun of the team without any kind of intelligent analysis whatsoever, at least get the roster right.

At this point, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Berken and Hernandez will be in the starting rotation over Matusz and Bergesen.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I agree, but there's overpaying and there's overpaying. He's not Mark Teixeira and you can't throw the kitchen sink at him without regard to your future budgets. He is not a good enough player to justify a sixth of your payroll (and that's assuming a payroll of $120 million) for the next six or seven years.

I hear Yankee fans already have Wieters jerseys in pinstripes for when Posada retires lol.

Are they allowed to have Matt Wieters T-Shirt night also while he is still playing for our AAA team? Thats not really fair.....

not brooks

Sorry i got the mess of rookies confused my mistake hahaha

Pete,

The team overall is a bunch of low rent bums at this point unless they make some moves you have to expect 100. Look who is playing 1st and 3rd and DH!

LOL! Is being a jerk about it but I to some extent I understand his frustration. This roster cannot compete with the AL East teams and I am not talking about the Sox and Yanks this current roster will struggle against even Tampa and the Jays. Last year was a very bad year and it looks like the team might have had more depth than they do now which is pretty damn scary. There are way too many question marks in the starting rotation, bullpen and the infield.

Pete -

Holliday may not be as good as Tex, and that's why you don't pay him as much.

According to the rumors (and I know they're just rumors), overpaying Holliday would mean giving him about $18M per over six or seven years, which is $2M less per year over the course of a shorter contract.

Also, Holliday's offensive numbers are pretty comparable to Tex's. And I know Holliday has played most of his career in the best hitters park ever, but it's not like Arlington and New Yankee Stadium are pitcher's paradises or something.

This team needs to do something to speed up the rebuilding and to bring back the fans. And I don't see a better option than Holliday.

Has anybody even seen Bergy pitch since he was injured last season?

Pete,

As I have said before, I really like Jason Berken and I hope the Orioles stick with him. Let him work out of the bullpen to develop his confidence and command. I think he has more upside than Hernandez . The games I went to he got his fastball up to 95 on the gun.

His mechanics are so similar to a young Greg Maddux sometimes I have to rub my eyes. Maddux did not exactly burst onto the scene either.

I think eventually he will be able to throw four pitches for strikes and change speeds on all. Of course, I could be dead wrong and he gets battered back to Triple A. But I hope not and I don't think so. I think he will eventually be an effective starting pitcher in the Big Leagues and I hope it is here.

What do you think about Berken?

Pete,

Just a note about the Orioles before Ravens mode......

Heard you on the radio for a bit yesterday, and your story about Gene Autry was both interesting and moving. I often heard he was a good man... you confirmed such!

I also heard a different tone in your voice than this time last year, as pertaining to the upcoming season. There's not quite that kick in your step there once was......for good reason.

To suggest the team could possibly win 75 games, only if players reasonably developed in 2010 was very honest. It was obvious by your tone however, that 75 wins is likely a reach (and I agree).

You also said, as I have mentioned in multiple post, that this team is relying heavily on two players this year..... Bergesen and Reimold. Two players who were surprises last year and two players coming off of significant injuries.

Quite alarming indeed!

For AM to rely so much on two players who were both SURPRISES, two players that the league will adjust to (they won't surprise anyone anymore), and two players coming off of worse injuries than people want to believe.....Well, I just feel it's very irresponsible.

Anyway, good show yesterday! I'm not the jerk you think I am. I'm just someone who is tired of the always 'it's not about this year', before this year ever starts. And I think (deep down) you know the same will be said next year.

But, I'll be in my seats with my friends..... we'll all gripe to each other about Atkins and Aubrey being at the corners (among so many other things), and we'll shake our heads leaving the stadium after another loss...saying to each other 'see ya tomorrow night'.

That's just the way it is......

Pete,

Who did you mean when you said

Also, you left the best pitcher in the organzation out of the rotation

Who is that cause i would really like to meet him! hahah did we just sign a new pitcher or are you talking about that kid that is coming off major injury?

Wayne,

How are we as fans supposed to rely on 2 young players coming off major injury when the roster is in complete shambles?? No vets to winners nothing!! Scary stuff bro...

Gil,

Berken was looking good the last month and a half when he switched to the 2-seamer as his primary fastball. It had good movement and he could keep it low in the strikezone (as opposed to his 4-seamer). His velocity was about 2-3 mph slower, but that's not always a bad thing if he can locate it and mix it in with his repetoire

On the other hand, a month and a half is too small of a sample size to judge any player. I almost agree with you, though. Let him work out of the bullpen, but keep him there. Because judging his season as a whole, by the time he goes through the heart of a lineup the 2nd time around, he's getting hit hard. IMO, his effectiveness would be best suited out of the long relief role and spot starter.

If Arrieta, Erbe, Patton and Britton live up to thier billing, they're going to pass over Berken and Hernandez anyway.

1. The best pitcher in the otrganization who was not included in that proposed rotation was Brian Matusz, who is who Pete meant. He'll be the #2 or #3 starter this season.

2. Matt Holliday is being pumped up by Scott Boras to scare St. Louis into overpaying. This is the Orioles' annual off-season job for Boras, as the O's are the only credible other source. (See 2009 - Mark Teixeira - for a history lesson on the topic).

There are two chances - zero and zero - of Holliday's coming here. Superstars don't come to 98-game losers - especially perennial ones - unless they are wildly overpaid, and I do think we can safely assume that Mr. A. is going to wildly overpay nobody. Ironically, it would be a great opportunity for Holliday to get in on the ground floor of something good and very interesting, but so be it.

3. We already have Matt Holliday, only his name is Nolan Reimold. The fans are wayyyyy too eager to deal him. It would be a huge mistake.

Wayne,

I would consider Bergesen somewhat of a surprise. But Riemold? Granted, yes, it took him a while to get to the majors due to injuries. But to consider him as mearly a surprise is really short-changing him. He was/is considered a 4-tool prospect and has been listed in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects since 2006 (as opposed to Bergesen, who niether made the Top 100 or the Orioles top organizational prospects).

Fang Guy,

I think Reimold may have "two" seasons this year. I think he will struggle early, coming off the injury as MLB pitchers go after the hole is his swing, which is the fastball above the belt. I went to a lot of games last year and that is the pitch that gives him the most trouble. Hopefully, he will make the necessary adjustments and pick up steam as the season goes on. Don't get me wrong, I am a big Nolan Reimold fan, but most young players go through the adjustment period. Some are able to do it, some can't. Adam Jones is still adjusting as Major League pitchers were letting him get himself out in the stretch before his season ended.

Remember Mike Young?

Dave in Glen Burnie,

You mentioned Zach Britton and all I know about him is what I have read about prospect updates in the "Sun"

It is reported that his name came up a lot in trade talks this winter so if other teams want him he must have promise. I was listening to an oriole scout on wbal on a saturday months back who thinks that Britton is right up among the top prospects the orioles have.

Hey "LOL!",

Where have you been for the last 8 months? Ever heard of this Brian Matusz guy who jumped from college to the big leagues in a little over a year? Your grouchiness doesn't stand up very well if it's grounded in amnesia.

To Frank: Wieters won't go to the Yankees if the Orioles are contending in the next few years. He wouldn't get anything by switching teams... and believe it or not, the time when players would rather play for the O's than the Yankees may not be much more than two years away. Wieters will still be under contract then.

not brooks: I appreciate your energetic wishes for this team, but I don't think Holliday is as hot a player as you make him out to be. The difference between what Holliday would offer and what Reimold may offer isn't worth $18 million over 8 seasons... but that's just my thought.

Holliday will be 30 in less than two weeks. He's seeking a long, very lucrative contract. Bad idea for the Orioles. Four or five years is conceivable, if the price isn't way out of line.

The O's should be moving Reimold to first, and give the outfield of Pie, Jones, and Markakis a long look (while hoping Jones learned from his last 2.5 months that swinging at everything is not the way to succeed.)

Gil,

I think what really gives Britton attention is that he's a lefty. Anyway, here's some links if you're interested:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2010/269300.html

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/211463-zachary-britton-the-kink-in-the-well-oiled-machine

I think ppl are overlooking several key aspects to the Holliday signing

1) He irs a true RH power bat and clean up hitter and will make those hitting around him better. U arent just getting holliday, you are getting better pitches for Kakes to hit too
2) SIgning him always u to trade from a position of strength to another team's position of strength RE: OF. U can subsequently flip reimold and/or pie for either a cheap LT solution for 1b or ss. In essence, u might be paying holliday 18 million a season but a rookie salary at the position you've upgraded somewhere else---i.e It may cost 19 mill for Holliday and the new SS/1b we receive back in trade-- thats certainly better than paying 18 million for 2 of the usual huff/payton/ cordova/gibbons medicority. The Orioles havent really tried "overpaying" any elite players, yet. they've overpaid mediocrity--its time to land some elite players in their prime

Im glad Scmuckers finally put some cold water on next yrs FA's becuase many of the 1b are in their mid 30's (Lee

For ppl hating on Holliday, u realize that his ops would've easily lead the team by 100 pts last yr, right ? Even the "bad" numbers he put up in Oakland was better than Kakes last yr

Dont get me wrong, I would've preferred Tex over Holliday but that ship is sailed, but I definitely prefer Holliday to more money in Greedy Petey's pockets

(Schmueroni, i couldnt find you on the radio yesterday, plug that so i can hear you online)

Gil - Maddux was a stud by the time he was 22. Berken is 26.

Fang - How many times has Reimold hit 24+ home runs in a season? How many times has Reimold hit .320? How many times has Reimold put up a .380+ OBP?

Reimold might be as good as Holliday some day. But to say it doesn't make sense to sign Holliday because we have Reimold is pretty ridiculous. I know. I was saying the same exact thing about a month ago before I realized how ridiculous it was.

Anyways... I hope Reimold does turn into a 30 home run hitter. But he's not that guy yet. And this team needs that guy.

Wayne, thanks for the explanation. If I still lived in MD I would be at the games and would be shaking my head at the end of the game. Why? Because 46 years ago my dad took me to see a game and I still remember walking up the ramp and seeing the greenest grass in the world and watching my team warm up. I'm frustrated with this team but they're still my team. Go Os

Michael,

There is nothing "illogical" about that. Getting back the SP that you traded away and having the guy you got for him who is now a Gold Glover in a span of what, 2 years? That's a coup.

Also, I didn't say we would get any of those guys, my point was that the people on here (Schmucks blog) would go crazy making arguments for why we could or should get them. Just like they have for Tex last year and Holliday this year, even though the Os never had a chance at either of those guys...

thanks for playing.

Michael,

There is nothing "illogical" about that. Getting back the SP that you traded away and having the guy you got for him who is now a Gold Glover in a span of what, 2 years? That's a coup.

Also, I didn't say we would get any of those guys, my point was that the people on here (Schmucks blog) would go crazy making arguments for why we could or should get them. Just like they have for Tex last year and Holliday this year, even though the Os never had a chance at either of those guys...and you are high if you think the cards or twins can afford a contract in the range of what Pujols and Mauer will get...

thanks for playing.

Not Brooks,

Re: Berken
I know, and sometimes I think I see what I want to see rather than what really is when it comes to young players. I guess I have been around so long that when I see a young player their style and physical appearance remind me great players from back in the day.

Just like Brandon Waring. I got to see him play a few games at the end of the season and he reminded me of Tony Coniglairo in physical appearance and swing. I mentioned it to a friend of mine who went with me to Bowie to a few games He is an old timer like me and he did not see the similarities, other than that they were both tall and lean. He remembered correctly that Conigiaro had a much quicker, shorter and more compact swing than Waring who he thinks has a "slider speed" bat.

Gil and Not Brooks -

Point taken. I should not have suggested that Reimold will be as good as Holliday in the next ten minutes and it is not what I meant. But I do believe that he will be there someday - and someday soon.

But I certainly never implied - nor would I - that I don't want Holliday on the team. It would create an outfield glut, but we should always have such problems.

What I did mean to imply is that it ain't gonna happen. St. Louis has to make Albert Pujols MLB's first $30 million man in two years and may not be as excited as they otherwise would be in signing Hollida; thus Scott Boras is using the Oriole's interest to pump up the Cardinal checkbook.

As for Reimold, if he is not as good as Holliday right now, give him some time, and not necessarily much of it. I predict superstardom for this kid.

And as all you regular readers of my comments (somewhere around zero!) in these blogs know, I am never wrong.. Ok, not "never", but very seldom. Oh ok, more than seldom, but not a whole lot more.

Ok, a whole lot more, but I'm not wrong this time: Reimold is going to be terrific. You heard it here first. In fact, look for somewhat of a breakout season this coming summer. In fact, this whole team will be better than any of us particularly expect. As in pushing .500. Just watch.

Some Bill James projections for 2010... can you guess the players?

Player #1 - .373 OBP .524 SLG .897 OPS 29 HR

Player #2 - .391 OBP .531 SLG .922 OPS 27 HR

Answers to come later...

Folks,

Is Holiday the best option available in free agency right now to fill the 4 hole, definitely! He will be 30 in Jan and anything more than 5 years even in the AL with the DH would be plenty. That doesn't relieve us of the fact that AM & PA said" we will buy bats when the time is right"! Well having that big bat not only helps the line-up, but it helps those young pitchers stay in outings longer. It also allows the Warehouse to actually access DT jobs and counting wins and losses. So from my perspective, if were still in rebuilding, don't have or get a legitimate 4 hitter, you can't start counting wins and losses, you can expect young starters to have early exits and AM knew when they extended DT it was another sorry rebuilding year!

As for signing Bedard, it will only happen on the cheap! We left Marquis go cheap to the Nationals, I would rather see them go after Sheets if were taking a flyer on anyone, he was a true number 1 guy in a rotation. But look at 85+ losses diminishing fan base and more futility! Very sad the lack of committment by this Front Office and warehouse!

Pete -
The O"s can only expect to land most of the best free agents in a year following the big guys landing the blue chippers want. This is such a year. Burnett, Tex and those guys all signed last year.
It is hard to believe we can't outbid the Cardinals for a right handed power hitter. As Jason C points out, Holliday's signing would put us in a great position to make further deals. But there would be no rush. Holliday could shift to DH if all of our incumbent outfielders are healthy. Nice to be sitting on such riches.
Coors Field is a great home run park but it strains the imagination to figure out what Holliday would do playing 81 games in the Yards.

Pete,

Come on man! You can't get away with saying ". He's not Mark Teixeira and you can't throw the kitchen sink at him without regard to your future budgets." when we failed to show the appropriate amount of love for a once in a generation free agent (young, gold-glove, High BA, switch-hitter) and then use it as an excuse not to offer Holiday. No one in the local media said it, so I will, if you were going to pay an astronomical long term contract, Tex was the one and the O's blew it, $140 when he had three better offers! I agree Holiday isn't worth it, but don't want to ever hear the local media this year using Tex as an analogy for not doing something else, the warehouse screwed up miserably last year and they got a free pass for it!

Fang,

I also think Reimold is going to be very good. I hope he does become a superstar. We will get a better idea this year after about 450 AB's. We are not going to get Matt Holliday and most everybody on the blog knows it, so we will have to make the best of it with the young players and the stopgap players Macphail has signed and will sign.

Are the Orioles going to be very good in 2010? Probably not.

chris in hawaii, i'm pretty sure player 1 is reimold and player 2 is holliday. am i right?

anyway, heres a scenario for the orioles.they land holliday for a big time contract, and the cardinals save all their money and sign pujols. OR, the cardinals, who are the only other team interested in holliday, sign him and have no money left for pujols next offseason. meanwhile, many of the big money franchises(yankees, red sox, tigers, cubs) all have solid franchise 1st basemen, while the orioles don't. sounds like a good fit to me. the mets have a 1st baseman in the waiting, so you would think they would spend their money elsewhere. the orioles have a lot of money right now, plus i believe millwood's contract will be up after this season, they just need to learn how to spend it. i'm not saying this is realistic, because it really isn't, but who better to spend a ton of money on than the best player in the league, who happens to not be a boris client.

either way it COULD be win-win for the orioles,but i would like to see the them wait until next offseason to really spend some money rather than overspend right now for a guy who isn't even really a franchise player. let the young guys develop, and go get pujols next year.

Dave in Buffalo, you are a winner.

Dave - You're right. Chris' Player A is Reimold and his Player B is Holliday.

And Chris, go ahead and keep putting stock in Bill James predictions.

But don't forget that James was the guy who projected a .311/.407/.526 line for Matt Wieters in 2009.

A couple more thoughts...

...James projections are always wildly optimistic. Just go to Fangraphs and look up any player. Pay close attention to guys who are coming off serious injuries. James' projections for Troy Glaus and José Reyes are HUGE.

...In Holliday's case, how in the world can you project for a player when you have no idea what stadium he's going to be playing in?

Dave -

Your suggestion that the Orioles would sign Albert Pujols made me laugh out loud.

A few thoughts for you:

Alex Rodriguez makes $30M per season. Albert Pujols is phenomenally better than A-Rod. The Players Union would have a cow if Pujols doesn't get paid more than A-Rod.

That said, the O's would have to offer $30M+ per year for at least eight years, because players like Pujols (who will turn 32 before the 2012 season starts) get crazy long deals no matter how old they are. If the O's aren't willing to offer a 30-year-old Matt Holliday $18M per over eight years, they're not going to offer a 32-year-old Pujols $30M per over eight years.

Also, as I've said before, Pujols is the Cardinals. Without Pujols, the Cardinals are nothing. And if St. Louis management lets Pujols leave after 2011, every Cardinal fan will revolt and they'll burn Busch Stadium to the ground.

Oh, and one more thing. The only reason the Cards are so intent on keeping Holliday in the first place is so Pujols will have some semblance of a real offense around him, which should encourage him to stay in St. Louis.

I'll only say this once: There is absolutely no chance that the Orioles will sign Albert Pujols. None. Zero. Forget about it.

End.

1. NY Yankees 208,097,414
2. NY Mets 145,367,987
3. Chicago Cubs 134,058,500
4. Boston 122,435,399
5. Detroit 119,160,145
6. LA Angels 118,964,000
7. Seattle 112,053,666
8. Philadelphia 111,209,046
9. Houston 102,996,414
10. Chicago Sox 100,598,500
11. LA Dodgers 100,008,592
12. Atlanta 94,313,666
13. St. Louis 87,703,409
14. San Francisco 82,616,450
15. Kansas City 81,384,553
16. Milwaukee 80,182,502
17. Cincinnati 73,558,500
18. Arizona 73,516,666
19. Texas 73,439,238
20. Toronto 72,563,200
21. Colorado 72,428,000
22. Tampa Bay 68,230,934
23. Minnesota 67,634,766
24. Cleveland 66,757,366
25. Washington 62,001,000
**26. Baltimore 61,885,566**
27. Oakland 56,089,250
28. San Diego 37,800,800
29. Florida 35,774,000
30. Pittsburgh 25,197,000

Note:Team salaries do not represent full team payroll. Amount listed includes current salary for all players currently on the roster.

OK I'm a bit late to the game here but I think the O's are on the cusp of making some decent gains this year. But it’s gonna take a couple more moves - mostly of the $$ type. First sign either Sheets (my 1st pick) or Bedard to help keep the pressure off our young starters. Each has some risk, but they can dominate games. Sign Delgado to DH - if he proves healthy enough. Lastly - go after Uggla to play 3rd (not sure the cost of this one in both money and trade bait). That lineup would be a bit weak defensively at the corners but would have a lot of pop at bat. Mainly you'd hold onto most if not all of the prized prospects. You see how the kids develop during the year to determine your next steps. But you'd give the fan base something to cheer for now too.

not brooks,

The point is, why put out an extra $17-19 million a year (for 7+ years) to get slightly better production (and possibly less HRs) from a player that will be past his prime in a few years? Especially when... (drum roll)... HE'S NOT WORTH THAT MONEY!!!

Look, if you can get him cheaper (like what he's actually worth, probably somewhere around $10-$12 million a year, or for $14-15 for under 5 years) then that's one thing, but he's not a guy who's worth overspending on when you're not really hurting for his production. The London Broil may be better than the Ground Beef, but it's not worth paying Prime Rib prices for.

chris,

what are the adjusted bill james projections on the rest of the line-up with Holliday vs without him?

The effect hitters ahve on each other in a line-up is ignored by the most on this board. If u dont think that there's anything to it, ask david ortiz and jeff kent

How much better does markakis' projections improve hitting in front of Holliday as opposed to whatever unqualified hitter is batting clean-up behind him as the roster is presently comprised ? What are the bill james projections on the players we could possibly get in return by trading reimold ?

Since you love stats, surely you know that even at 18 million, Holliday projects as worth his contract. His WAR figure puts his value at around 20 million per season, therefore making Holliday worth his contract, even using Statistical formulas.

Personally, I think the team aspect of baseball is largely ignored, especially in the way that each player is improved/negated by those around him

There is more to consider than bill james "projections"

I'll go one step further and say that it would be a better gamble to use $20 million of whatever was gonna be offered to Holliday and make Chapman an offer.

I know he's gonna start off at A+ ball, but so did Matusz last year. Now I know he's not the same guy Matusz is and he may take a bit longer to mature, but flame throwing leftys are harder to come by than left fielders with pop.

That's where we disagree, Chris. On Holliday's value.

If they could sign Holliday for six years at $18M per, that's where I'd pull the trigger. It gets dicey when you get into seven and eight years, so obviously you need to be more cautious there. I'd be all for a six year deal with some production based vesting options in years seven and/or eight.

And I don't think that Holliday's contribution on the field alone is worth $18M per. But the guy fills so many needs it's not even funny. He's a right handed power hitter, he's protection for the younger hitters, he's a veteran leader on a team full of rookies, he's a sign to the fans that Angelos is willing to spend to win. He's a lot more than just a bat.

Would he be a risk? Sure he would. But every player that you pay a significant amount of money is a risk. This team is paying $15M for Nick Markakis in 2013 and 2014. Suppose Nick doesn't progress any more and settles in as a .280 hitter with 20 homer pop. Is that worth $15M per? Suppose Brian Roberts loses a few steps and his defense and base running abilities take a big hit? Will he still be worth $10M per in 2012? Who the heck knows?

All I know is that this team needs to take a risk to make a jump in the standings and this organization needs to take a risk to bring the fans back.

OMG

Not Brooks: Great analysis. But Holliday is really not worth the money. Against next year's FA class, he's not even in top level. He's just the best available NOW. It's like if PeeWee Herman was available for playing James Bond. Sure, he would be a better actor than Carrot Top, but I still wouldn't put him in the role.

LOL: You're obviously an idiot for omitting Matucz. Please go back to school

Hey here's a thought. Montanez is coming back from an injury. He was pounding it the year before. And Aubrey was starting to heat up at the end of last year. I'd be interested to see if a no-name shows up and makes an impact at 1st base. No one knew Reimold before last year. Let's see if we have another diamond in the rough. We can always trade for a home run hitter during the season.

If it's true that St. Louis is offering Holliday 8 years, that would be the end of discussion. No way you would go over 5 years for someone like Holiday. Reimold really should give you similar offensive numbers with better defense. Now if he wants to come and DH for 10 mil a year for 5 years, why not?

Sign Bedard and call it an offseason....

GTuck,

Guys like you make guys like Wayne look brilliant! Step up bro! At least try to act like winning matters.... Sorry Wayne - I couldn't help it!

Ok jason,

So let's say that Holliday is actually worth $20 million this year and that's what you're paying him. Is he gonna live up to that every year throughout the length of his contract?

Furthermore, if Holliday is worth that and you get slightly less production from Reimold (OPS-wise), then what is Reimold's worth and who is a better value?

And yes, I understand the impact of a batter on other guys in the line-up, but I honestly don't think Holliday is a legit clean-up guy in the AL East. I think he's a 3 or 5 slot guy, which we have in spades.

Also, I think by the time the guys we have get a little more experience, Markakis should be back in the 2 spot. Reimold looks like a 3/5 guy to me. And Wieters will hit anywhere.

Ultimately though, it's not our offense that needs the most fixing. It wasn't our offense that was at the bottom of the league last year, it was our pitching. That was thanks to guys like Adam Eaton and Rich Hill being our starters.
Our runs per game were 4.57 and our ERA was 5.15. If the pitching can lower it's ERA to 4.40 (which is at least respectable if not great) then we still win more games. What would you all propose we do about the pitching staff? Or have we done enough?

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Good question, Chris. I would get another starter, and not an Eaton or Hill. I also think another quality late-inning reliever wouldn't hurt.

"Reimold really should give you similar offensive numbers with better defense [than Holliday]."

Bill -

You should look up Holliday's defensive stats. He's got a 9.3 UZR over the past three seasons and Fielding Bible ranked him as the fifth best left fielder in baseball last season. He's been around +10 in their +/- ratings over the past three seasons.

And while Reimold "should" or "might" put up numbers "similar" to Holliday's, Holliday will put up Holliday numbers without a doubt.

Chris M.

You are dead on target. In fact add the comment from Chris from Hawaii and sign the Cuban phenom and then assess 2010 and where they need to go. The Cuban is young and adds to our potential, and Uggula, Delgado (or LaRoach) and Sheets show a committment to improve! Possibly with exceptional performances maybe making some mid season trade bait for an A Gonz or some other legit power guy!

I like the way you guys are thinking! Enough of this talk about the O's signing someone who makes more than Nick M, it just won't happen, the Warehouse doesn't have the stones for it!

Chris -

Unless Bedard or Sheets would come to Baltimore on a one year, incentive laden deal with a $3-5M base, there's really no worthwhile pitching left on the market.

You won't like my plan for the pitching staff though...

Step 1: Sign Holliday, showing free agents that the team is serious about speeding up the rebuilding by opening the wallet.

Step 2: Let Millwood and Guthrie make 30+ starts. Ride them for as long as they can go to save the bullpen. Hope that Matusz, Tillman and Bergesen progress and lock down rotation spots for the next several years.

Step 3: Sign Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee or Brandon Webb (considering how he bounces back) after the 2010 season.

I wouldn't mind LaRoche, if he would play for two years and $7-8M per. Three years and $10M is crazy for that guy.

Then, if Hughes, Snyder or Waring steps up and deserves a promotion, they can DH or split time with LaRoche at first.

I like steps 2 & 3, not brooks. :)

And I think Bedard for a year at $3-$5 million plus incentives with a 2nd year team option is totally do-able. He won't be able to join the big league team until June or July, but by then, you'll know if you can (and should) trade Millwood. At that point, Bedard could take spot #1.

I think at some point "overpaying" becomes "just paying." A-Rod was overpaid when he signed in Texas, but I think more than just the Yankees would take him with that contract now. Holliday isn't an $18MM player alone per se, but the value comes from looking at the added value he adds to other players. $2MM in value to another guy in your lineup and some value to your pitching staff who can work a little easier with the offensive boost, makes the return on the investment more worthwhile. That and the value of actually selling tickets to a team the general public has lost interest in. Like it or not, something has to spark this team over the hump at some point.

I don't think the possibility of Reimold maturing into a 30HR kind of guy should be a deterrent either. I think he has all the potential to make it there and then the Orioles are in the position to make a trade to fill another hole or make someone a permanant DH or move to 1B. Not a bad position to find ourselves in.

Pete is right when he says the team has to pay attention to future budgets. Take a look at what's happening on the northside of Chicago regarding Alfonzo Soriano.

If there was ever a guy you would think you wouldn't have to worry about fulfilling a long term deal, it would be Soriano. But the Cubs would do anything to get rid of him. His contract has tied up the Cubs' payroll and his ineffectiveness vs RH pitchers led, in part, to the disastrous signing of Milton Bradley.

If we could get Holliday for 60 over four, I'd say go for it. But Holliday is going to want 100 and frankly that's too much when we have a junior Holliday already on the roster. Yes, Reimold. Anything more than 60/4 would mean we'd have an albatross of a contract on the books.

The Orioles MO seems to be let the kids have another year of seasoning and then make a big hit or two next off-season, and with the talent that's supposed to be coming on the market, that's not such a dumb idea.

Even if next year's group isn't as great as hoped, Reimold and Wieters would have had another year to mature and turn into the power hitters we need.

Oh, while we wouldn't pay 18m for Holiday, I would, and I think so would alot of other people, pay Albert 30m. He could play 1B for the next eight years with his build and athletic ability, and that hole would be filled. He is that great.

Notice the same style, or should I say lack of style, in the comments left by LOL and haha compared to those by the biggest whiner of all blogs on MASN? Same negativity, same lack of writing style, same whining, same lack of baseball knowledge.

When the O's are in a playoff race in September then I will get excited. It has been a 13-14 year mess. Thanks Pete.

When the O's are in a playoff race in September then I will get excited. It has been a 13-14 year mess. Thanks Pete.

Ok... winter break is over, back to real work. Gotta make some money.

AM, back to work for you too... find the O's a decent 1B, another RP and another SP to challenge the young guys in camp.

2010- the year Matt Wieters makes Joe Mauer look like Geronimo Gil.

"Holliday will put up Holliday numbers without a doubt"
NB- There is always a doubt...ever heard of injuries?

We have a number 4 hitter for years to come. He's currently our starting catcher with the initials MW.
Sign Bedard.....Aubrey at first....rent a DH for a year....find a shortstop for 2011....
playoffs and WINNING records for the forseeable future....

Go O's!!! Playoffs 2010

Anyone notice how boring any subject pertaining the the orioles is on a day the Ravens make it to the post season yet again?

I mean why kill the buzz and talk about a losing team?

cya

Andy is way ahead of you on the Shortstop issue. Shortstop Mychal Givens was the Orioles 2009 second round draft. Depending on Mychal's development, an one yr extension for Izzy who is 29 looks like a solid bridge to the future. Izzy has the best fielding range in league. Izzy is second only to Jeter in fielding percentage.

wayne,
your posts are always boring

bf,

you know how predictable that was? Come on man, step up.

you may want to stop focusing on me so much. do you own thing man..........

Wayne don't you think saying that we are relying heavily on Reimold and Bergesen is a bit a stretch? We have more OF depth than any team in the league. Scott is more than capable in left and was average to above average in the OF last year by most metrics, better than Reimold. Not to mentino we still have Pie floating around as a 4th OF. It's not like we HAVE to have Reimold produce.

Bergesen maybe is a bit more accurate but even in his case, he's really the 5th guy on this rotation as Matusz and Tillman are clearly the organizational favorites. But honestly, show me a team with no ?'s around their #5 pitcher and I will show you a playoff team and legit world series contender.

I'm with Chris in Hawaii, and Ken on stance. And I do agree w/Not Brooks on points 2 & 3, and that there is probably no way we are able to land Pujols next year. Yes, chances are slim and none, but I do think we should gear up to at least offer the kitchen sink for him- over $30M if necessary. Again, we SHOULD NOT make a splash this year. 2010 season is phase 2 of "The Plan"- which yes, I am completely on board with- and is two-fold:

1. Let our young players develop a little more to better evaluate their value and our needs going forward. Steward the talent and budget we currently have and be in better position for next off-season. And yes, it may still be painful for another year and the likes of Wayne and Not Brooks don't like this pain (and neither do I or Orioles Nation), but it is still necessary for big picture to be in better position to win long-term. We don't want another Glenn Davis-like trade again and the current possibility of a lot of prospects for A Gon smells too much like Davis at this point. Yes, Angelos needs to prove to the fans he is going to spend...but not quite yet. Patience.

2. Use our $ more wisely to PUSH HARD on better free agents next year: like perhaps a Beckett or Lee- as Not Brooks suggests; a HUGE offer to Pujols, or a trade/FA signing of a Fielder, Gonzalez, or perhaps Reyes at SS. Holliday is good and yes, still ahead of Reimold, but spend that $ more wisely next year- going forward.

GO O'S!

No mention of Smoltz. I know Smoltz is an injury risk (Bedard isn't?), but if he's on he'd lead the staff. If he get's hurt he can tutor the young guns. Give him a two year contract and promise him the pitching coach position when he retires.

Jim -

How would a trade for Gonzalez "smell like" the Davis trade? Because they're both first basemen? Because the O's would have to give up a pretty big bounty to get AG?

When the O's traded for Davis, they got a 30-year-old coming off an injury plagued year who had never slugged over .500 or put up an OBP higher than .350 in a full season.

Gonzalez turns 28 in May, he's played 156+ games in each of the last four seasons, he's put up a slugging percentage of .500 or better in each of the last four seasons while playing half of his games in the worst hitters park in the world, and his OBP has been higher than .360 in three of the last four seasons.

Couldn't be more different if you ask me.

baronherv - Two years for a soon-to-be 43-year-old with serious health issues who put up an 8.32 ERA while pitching in the AL East last season? Boy am I glad you're not a General Manager... Wait a second... Is that you, Syd Thrift?

west anchor -

Way to peg Mychal Givens as the shortstop of the future when the kid hasn't even played an inning of baseball past high school.

Absolutely Pete something else will happen soon. I sure hope its Bedard

I scanned these posts, still not seeing a lot of love for Pie. Baseball, unlike any other sport, man - stats to devour and compare, apples to apples. Projecting talent into stats is a blast. I hope Pie gets the opportunity to do it here.

As far as plate discipline, Pie and Reimold progressed and Jones regressed. I think thats the key. They all have pop. Can't wait for April.

Someone mentioned Mike Young. yeah, wow, i thought he'd be the next Eddie Murray. Power to all fields. Then again, I thought Ken Dixon would be the next Fergie Jenkins. or at least Storm Davis. wrong and wrong

onceawarrior -

How do you figure that Jones regressed in terms of plate discipline?

In 2008, his K rate was 22.6% and his BB rate was 4.6%.

In 2009, his K rate was 19.7% and his BB rate was 7.1%.

In my book, a decrease in K rate and an increase in BB rate equals improved plate discipline.

So, signing Smoltz for 3 mil for 2 years wouldn't pay off? Cmon, it'd be worth it just for the mentoring factor. Smoltz could fill a Hendrickson like role - long relief and spot starter.

As i recall, Jones had a tremendous April and May, a decent June, but started expanding the strike zone in July that continued all the rest of his shortened season. Swung at too many low and away sliders, too many fastballs above the letters. His declining production would support that observation.

Not Brooks,

I agree with you in regards to Davis' numbers- and age difference- compared to A Gon, but when I say smells the same, just to clarify I see it similar in terms of the types of players we may have to give up. Names being thrown around that SD apparently would want- or at least a combo of the likes of : Tillman, Wieters, Reimold, Arrieta...to me, this sounds similar to a Schilling, Finley, Harnisch-type of combo. I don't think we should let go of any of these names- our top young prospects, who are still un-proven, with a possible high-ceiling. I simply think we should evaluate them a little more before pulling the trigger on something potentially this big.

Okay, so even if he does make a lick of sense for the O's (which he doesn't) let's look at Smoltz's side:

Why would Smoltz sign a two year, $3M contract with a loser when he could probably make the same amount, or more, on a one year deal with a winner?

Smoltz has made $135M over the course of his career. He's been to the playoffs like 43 times and already has a World Series ring. He has nothing left to prove and no reason to sign with a bad team just to make a paycheck. The guy is a competitor and if he's going to play in 2010, he's going to play for a winner.

Jim -

Thanks for clarifying.

I'm with you to a certain extent, though I do think that now is the time for the O's to take a risk that would bring the fans back and increase their chances of putting together a winning season.

Doesn't seem like that's going to happen any time soon though, as the O's don't seem to be willing to commit big money and lots of years to Matt Holliday and the Padres don't seem too keen on trading AG just yet.

PS - I seriously doubt the O's would consider trading Wieters for anyone at this point.

not brooks,

i'm so glad i could make you laugh out loud. i wasn't suggesting that the orioles have a realistic opportunity to sign pujols, but that he would be a great fit for the o's and they would be better spending tons of money on someone proven,and not on holliday, who IMO really isn't that much better than reimold. like i said before, i know it is not realistic, but i guess you never know.

"and they would be better spending tons of money on someone proven,and not on holliday, who IMO really isn't that much better than reimold."

Dave -

I'm not sure how you didn't see the irony of this sentence when you typed it.

You talk about spending money on a proven star and then you imply that Holliday isn't much better than Reimold.

Again...

How many times has Reimold hit .320+?

How many times has Reimold hit 24+ home runs?

How many times has Reimold put up a .380+ OBP?

How many times has Reimold put up a .900+ OPS?

Come on people.

This year, it's hoping that Reimold will be as good as Holliday.

Next year, it'll be hoping that Tillman will be as good as Beckett and that Matusz will be as good as Cliff Lee.

The year after that, it'll be hoping that Tyler Townsend will be as good as Ryan Howard.

And the year after that, it'll be hoping that Mychal Givens will be as good as Hanley Ramirez.

I have as much hope as anyone else that Reimold and Matusz and Tillman and Townsend and Givens will all achieve their potential and turn into stars. But I'm also a realist, so I know that the chances of all five of those guys doing so are about a billion to one.

So, some time, and some time soon at that, the O's and their fans are going to have to stop hoping that [insert O's prospect here] will be as good as [insert top free agent here] and just take a freaking risk and sign [insert top free agent here].

Until that happens, this team isn't going to have a chance of winning the AL East.

Pete,
Any inside info on the O's pursuit of Adrian Beltre? From what I read on ESPN, it is between the O's, Redsox, and A's, with the A's being the least likely destination? Are we a real player in this, or is this a Boras ploy to get more dough out of the Sox or Mariners?

For the record, I am not in favor of the move as I view Beltre as a very selfish guy and not someone you want in a locker room that is devoid of veteran leadership. I think he is a very good defensive player and an above average hitter, but not worth the free agent money he is looking for. Especially not on this team of youngsters. He's more the kind of guy that you add to an established clubhouse. I would rather be patient and see what Bell can do for us... Just my two cents...

Of all the pitching depth the Orioles have in their system, probably two at the most will turn out to be above average or better. And by most standards, that's considered a success. The O's need to go after more quality pitchers before they think about offense. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm probably right.

Tony, I haven't heard the ESPN report, but I would find it hard to believe that the O's would go after Beltre because it seems like Bell is the man in 2011. I know Atkins can play 1B, but Beltre wants 5 years so unless they plan on playing Bell at 1B for a long time, I think it's a rumor.

Chris, good points on the pitching. I still would like the O's to take a shot on a low risk/high reward type guy like Bedard or Ben Sheets. If Sheets is healthy, he's the ace and Millwood is #2 and it betters the whole staff. I know some guys don't like Garland, but I still think is a solid guy that the O's can count on every time he takes the mound to go at least 6 innings. Brian, Chris or Brad are going to still have growing pains and if they don't, I think Guthrie is better suited for the BP. Can't have enough pitching in the East.

Todd -

There's going to be a huge difference between what Beltre wants and what he's going to get.

Any player can want any kind of salary demand, but if no one is willing to pay it, too bad for said player.

It's the same thing that's happening with Holliday right now. The guy wants eight years at $18M per, but the Cardinals know that no one is going to offer him that much. So they're content to wait out Holliday/Boras until the greedy realize that they're not going to get what they want.

At this point, I'd expect Beltre to settle for a two or three year deal at about $8-9M per. Three years if he lands in Boston, two if he lands anywhere else.

not brooks

I guess that's why he's considering an offer from the Nats - he has an ally there and the idea of grooming new pitchers is appealing to him. His first choice is, of course, a team with a chance to win, but they aren't exactly knocking on his door or he wouldn't be considering the Nats. It probably would take more than 3 mil for 2 yrs, I just think it's critical to get proven pitcher of a Smoltz, or Maddux, or Glavine, or Martinez to help mentor the young ones.

not brooks

I guess that's why he's considering an offer from the Nats - he has an ally there and the idea of grooming new pitchers is appealing to him. His first choice is, of course, a team with a chance to win, but they aren't exactly knocking on his door or he wouldn't be considering the Nats. It probably would take more than 3 mil for 2 yrs, I just think it's critical to get proven pitcher of a Smoltz, or Maddux, or Glavine, or Martinez to help mentor the young ones.

baron -

I've seen a bit about Nats having interest in Smoltz, but nothing about Smoltz wanting to pitch for them.

Do you have a link?

It will be great to watch Will Young, i have bought tickets from
http://ticketfront.com/event/Will_Young-tickets looking forward to it.