The devil is in the details. How does Dan define being "any kind of factor in the AL East?" Oh, I'm supposed to go over there? Maybe later.

At this point, I am predicting 74 wins. I don't really anticipate any major changes in the roster at this point so 74-88 really doesn't scream of being a factor.

The Orioles were a combined 7-29 against Boston and New York last year. They were 17-19 against Toronto and Tampa. That's 24 games under just within your own division.

So the real question ought to be: Can the Orioles be improved enough to be a real factor in the AL East in 2011?

Without going into all of the if's and coulduv's, the simple answers are:

- The Orioles need to be within 14 games of .500 within the division as well as overall.

- The Orioles need to be within 17 games of .500 as a road team (25-56 last year).

- The Orioles need to have their best winning streak match their worst losing streak (5 and 13 in 2009).

- The Orioles need a more even split between season halves (36-45 and 28-53 last year).

A lot of factors go into this happening, and that is exactly the point. The team needs to improve on a lot of fronts. The team is banking on that happening with what they have.

If they finish the season with my predicted record but these conditions are unfulfilled, they will be a lot further away from being a factor in 2011 than if they have the same record and fulfill all of the above conditions.

No matter what, the Orioles are unlikely to make that next step unless they try to improve through other avenues. How much they need to delve into the other avenues will be determined by meeting the above conditions.

While we know later today this will be filled with all the negative comments about how the O's have done nothing right, missed all the great FA's this winter and are doomed to 100 years of losing, Connolly and all those quoted are dead on. The off season additions make the O's marginally better (maybe 10 games, we'll see), but the real issue is going to be the development of Weiters, Reimold, Bergeson, Matusz and Tillman as well as whether Jones takes a step forward or levels out. If they all make significant progress, the O's could be 20 games better. Interesting comment from Jeff Passan:

"They are young, they are talented and they are deep, and that's the thing that really struck me, the amount of really good to possibly great young players that they have," Passan said. "It's a very rare thing to see this amount of talent coming up at the same time." And here I thought they had no prospects.

However, the other point they make correctly, is that even if all goes according to pland it is not nearly good enough to win in the AL East. The key therefore, is 2011 free agency. The crop will be better and if the young players develop 2 or 3 key players can make this team competitive in 11. Like it not spending big this yea, absent information on the development of these players would have been foolish.

Realignment would be wonderful, but it's not going to happen, so absent a major shift to revenue sharing or a salargy cap, O's management simply has to more efficient and smarter in order to compete in this division and that can only happen by preserving a healthy player development system and then periodically (every few years) try to step aggressively into free agency.

Now I'll sit back and wait to be blasted for drinking the Kool Aid and believing all of AM's lies etc....

Hope!

Go to just about every losing teams site or newspaper and you'll see stories about hope. To a team however, each talks about growth this year, and competing next.

It's a common theme and a common tale. It's something most losing clubs share.

Around the league, each losing team can find a national writer/analyst who will speak positive about that team. It's a yearly tradition for losing clubs.

Thanks for pointing out the article though Pete. I did find it interesting, as I was waiting for the yearly pre-training camp spin.

Or as I call it 'The losers lament - mlb style'.

I have to admit though, it must be exciting preparing to go south. Just getting away from the hell hole facility in Ft Lauderdale is likely enough to get the blood pumping.

I'd even tell you I'll say hi when I'm down there..... but I don't want to ruin your trip.

Jeff,

No blasting here...... You're right on time the way teams like the O's want you to be. They need guys like you - their pr department prays for people like you.

This is what happens during pre-season, and you have every right. It's your opinion!

If you think a 10 game improvement means anything, especially compared to the disastrous season in 09', then that's your right. Me though..... I thought the 10 game improvement was suppose to happen las year. It didn't, thus it's about 2011.

This time next year, it'll be about 2012. That's just the way it is with losing teams.

Regardless, you'll enjoy the O's no matter what, and if that makes you happy, then that's all one can ask for.

I would like to see the O's break the .500 berrier, but I do say that every year. The Ray's went from worst to first a few years ago, maybe the O's can go from worst to 3rd?

What the He!!, I would take the O's playing Boston or NY at a .500 clip as well. I would love to knock one them out of the playoffs!

The recent history of the O's has been pitching. If the O's could sign Bedard and put him on the DL without taking a spot on the 40 man roster, that would be an option.

Does anyone when is the DL list available?

The O's will need more pitching in the second half of the season to avoid the traditional collapse. I don't think the O's will let the younger pitchers go 200 innings, and will probably want to protect them from injury. That's where having Bedard coming off the DL could benefit the O's.

A healthy Bedard would be a good weapon to have.

Who cares or believes anything Kurkijan and Rosenthal have to say about anything? They both use to write for the Baltimore Sun and we all know how much experts Sun writers are.

Jeff, I think you're right on. Improvement of the young guys will add more wins to this team than any of the free agent additions. The division really is the problem here; building internally is the right way to go, but playing against the Yanks and Red Sox, it has to be REALLY right.

Unfortunately, I don't know of a better way. There was no certainly no combination of money to be spent or players to be signed this offseason that would have added the 30-35 wins it would have taken to compete in 2010. the key is continued improvement -- 10 wins better this year, 10 more next year, and 10 the year after that. Teams that go for 30 in one year make bad decisions that haunt them for 10 (see: Orioles, 1998-present).

The best thing that could happen to this team is to go back to 2 divisions and drop the unbalanced schedule. We play a third of our games against the best three teams in the league and have to beat out two of them to make the playoffs. That's a higher bar than any other team in baseball other than Toronto.

wayne (Brummie/Paul at Roch's blog) is the same one who screamed for the O's to play the kids a couple years ago. Now with Tillman, Matusz, Reimold, Wieters, Jones, Pie, Hernandez, Berken, on the squad he now screams there's no talent on the team and they need to pay ridiculous salaries for free agents. Go figure.

New Oriole slogans for 2010

'Come see the double digit improvement by the Birds - even if that only means 74 wins'

'Double digits is double digits, no matter what'

'If the Birds were in the Central, they'd be better'

'2010 - Yes, we'll collapse in the 2nd half, but that's ok, we're just kids'

'Something Magic Happens - In 2013'

And no Wayne, I didn't forget the '2010 - Year of The Hail Mary'.

IMHO, we have improved slightly....are we a contender?....maybe.... for the 4th spot in the AL East. Fact is, we shouldn't have spent as much as we did this hot stove. No one out there, this year, was a game changer. We coulda spent Miggy's 6 milly on a bullpen, with some pieces that WERE out there, to help the youngsters with solid backup. I am quite positive that next year, with the much better FA class, we shall splurge, especially if the kids show improvement this year. If only 2 of our coveted pitching prospects pan out, we should be in a good position at the end of the year. Pie could add dynamic, if his streak at the end of last year continues, but he needs to GET the time to prove himself. Hopefully Bell will clean up his fielding while seasoning in the minors, and will make strides to get to the show. I am not a participant in the Kool Aid parties, but I am getting excited to get down to spring training, and see ,with my own eyes, the new product.....and, if for no other reason, to get the hell away from the snow....only 75 more days....it will be a challenge to keep my sanity....

Factoid,

Weird handle since you have your facts wrong.

Sorry, while I've heard of Brunnie before, I've never seen a single post from him (i don't recall him ever being on Schmucks Blogs).

Have also never seen or been on Roch's blog,

Furthermore, I've never said there's no talent on this team, and I've never said it wasn't worth developing some of the young prospects.

While Brunnie sounds like an interesting dude, i think we may be coming from different places, and that's ok. He's certainly entitled to his opinion, as are you... although you may want to change your handle since you're suppose to be based on facts? Just a thought!

Dear Waynehouser and Others of Similar Bent: Baseball is a game of hope, always has been, always will (ever read "Casey at the Bat"?). In my lifetime of following baseball, the "impossible dream" Red Sox, Twins, Braves, Rays and others have literally gone worst-to-first in one season. The recent Tigers squad did virtually the same. The Rockies won 21 of 22 in September of '07 to make the playoffs and get into the Series.

So, while is it, and should be expected to be, rare, teams do make dramatic improvement in short spaces of time. It is not at all impossible. Teams like the Orioles have to have virtually everything go right at once, of course, but that CAN happen.

You and your WAYNEHOUSER buddies have already written off the season, the rest of the decade, and the remainder of the millenium? That's just being negatory for the sake of sounding somehow prescient about a sport that I gather from your short-sighted comments you really know very little about.

I, for one, as well as tens of thousands of real fans (those at FanFest, for starters )will look at the upsides of trades and signings and developing youngsters and dream a little. You go ahead and continue to wallow in your own potpourri of misery.

For us real fans, "Pitchers and Catchers Report" will continue to be four of the most beautiful words in the language. For the WAYNEHOUSERS, I suppose those four words are just another pronouncement of an impending six months of doom and gloom. Go O's, and enjoy!

Nick,

I agree!

The O's shouldn't have spent a dime this off season.

Since the Marlins have been forced to spend, if the O's shut it down this year, they could have attempted to be #30 of #30 in spending.

I mean since it's not about this year anyway, who cares 1) if people come to the games (accept for Yank and Sox fans), or 2) if the product is acceptable for the O's fans who do show up?

So, yes Nick... I'm with you! Let's let all the baby birds play. It's not about this year, and maybe, just maybe, you'll get a good seat when the Yankee's come to town.

Thanks Pete,
Refreshing to hear the positive comments from those who don't have some axe to grind like the posters on your blog who seem to wallow in misery.
I seriously wonder why anyone with such a negative attitude as some posters here even bother being fans.
I think it's more about drawing some attention to themselves as you can see with those who have taken almost one third of this blog to say the same thing they have said 100 times.
The heat from outside sources about how good the young O's look is probably hard on them. Oh well, when we are 10 games over 500 in August, they will probably have to be straightjacketed.

Colorado,

Waynehouser? I like it! Does that mean I can be the leader of the 'Warehousers'?

Kidding aside, I'm happy you have hope sir, and I hope your worst to first dream comes true, I really do.

The one thing the O's have going for them is - well since they're always worst, they give themselves a shot at going worst to first every single year.

Maybe this is the year!

as for the blousy shirts, here's some lines you can use....if someone asks you if you want a lite beer, say "it's too late for lite"...personally, I like to say I have 24-pack abs. :-)

Actually Wayne, I didn't enjoy '09 any more than you did (other than Reimold, Bergeson, Matusz - and Weiters late) and I won't enjoy 75 wins all that much either. I would be happy to see them move towards .500 if there is reason to expect continued improvement and I actually think that is possible if 3 or 4 young guys take a big step forward.

Like any struggling business, ownership looks for a qualified management team, demands a plan and then supports the implementation of that plan. If after several years the plan doesn't produce the desired results, the management team gets canned..

The O's have spent 12 years searching for a mangement team that could even come up with a plan, no less implement it. The haphazard signing of over the hill free agents and stop gap trades, that did nothing to improve the team, all while depleting and ignoring the farm system created the mess that you so often lament.

I actually agree with you about all that. Where our opinions differ, and that's fine, is that I think AM's plan has merit and I think it warrants more patience than you seem to believe is warranted. You are entitled to that opinion, but the great thing about sports is the players will eventually settle our disagreement on the field.

That said, if the young players develop and AM doesn't act next year, then I'll join the naysayers, although I think it will be more about Angelos withholding $, than Andy not wanting to act. On the other hand if the young players turn out to be less than AM has touted, then he loses and we're stuck with another 5 years of a new plan because in that case 1 or 2 FA's isn't going to get it done in this division.

Jeff,

Fair enough! Great post!

I will be looking forward to spring training as I do every year. The only race I'm expecting the O's to be competitive in is the race to a .500 season. I think they may have improved enough to at least fight for the 81st win this year. That doesn't seem too much to ask in the third year of the plan, and I'll be quite content if they finally halt the embarrassing string of losing seasons.
Is that me just being hopeful? Well yes, I guess. If I wasn't hopeful I'd have quit following this team years ago. I've had my arguments with the moves made this off-season, but in the end I'm a long time O's fan who is always hopeful and anxious to see each new season begin.
You never know just what's going to happen each year, so why not at least hope for the best?
I'll not be betting the house that the O's finally break .500 this year, but it is at least possible without bending the laws of logic too far. If I was so down on the team that I had no hope at all, why would I even bother to follow them or come to this blog and talk about them?
A.M. has indicated that this season is the year that player development comes second behind actually winning games. He's done what he thinks is best for the team, and as fans we can agree or disagree with those moves, but the bar has been set and now it comes down to results. The O's will do their talking on the field and like any true baseball fan, I can't wait to hear what they have to say.

Wayne and Gil,

What happens when Tejada isn't re-signed, and they don't pick up Atkins option (I can't see him doing well enough for them to do so)?

Seems to me that means, in the year this team is suppose to compete (2011), we'll have 2 rookies at the corners. Two more young, developing unknowns.

Can you see it going any other way? And if so, at what positions will Andy buy the bats? I mean why did they bring in Tejada and Atkins if they weren't planning to go all the way cheap next year with the rookie corners?

I'm asking because on most teams, the corners are where much of the offensive production comes from. But on the Orioles, they'll have 2 rookies.

Now I know the hope is that Weiters can be that power cleanup guy. But he's still young, as are so many other guys. And it certainly appears Markakis, while a good young hitter, isn't a power or speed guy.

I guess what I'm saying is, doesn't it already appear that 2011 will be just another phase of the continued rebuilding with rookie corners, and don't you think everyone will again be saying 'it's about next year'?

Starting to panic!

larry, are you kidding me? you're giving up on not only 2010, but 2011 already? how about you just see what happens this year before you make any judgements. i personally would be fine with 75-80 wins this year, but it seems like some of you will never be happy about this team. you "fans" have a young team most people would be excited about and all anyone does is complain. i know everyone has heard this a million times, but the fact is you have to give them time to develope. they're heading in the right direction.

Larry,

While your question wasn't addressed to me, don't necessarily assume the rookies are locks at those spots - both have real questions. Those positions, especially 1B is the logical spot to go after a major FA or a trade or if they decide to move Reimold to first, they can go after an outfielder. Based on next year's FA at 1st and 3rd - Jorge Cantu, Pena and yes not brooks - Adam Dunn may be the best available (assuming Albert is not an option) - a trade might be the best hope.

Remember, (and I'm not sure AM is doing this), but teams often hype their guys in the minors as desitined to start "next year" in order to inflate their trade value.

I hope Snyder and Bell emerge, but Bell's defense is an issue and Snyder's decline when moved to AAA has to worry some folks. That said, if they are the real deal.......

How wierd is it that the fans who are tired of losing and are demanding that the team finally produce a winning record are pilloried by other fans as being negative and not really good fans?

And the fans who consider themselves to bleed Orange and Black and apparently really don't care about winning in the forseeable future consider themselves positive and the only true fans?

As for me, I'm sick and tired of all of the spin about the "plan". All it means is another losing year to push forward to the next losing year so they can start writing that it never was about 2011 anyhow.

I'm going to try to scoop Wayne and predict that, in late September when the Orioles are 30 games out with, Garrett Atkins batting .218 and two of the young startters on the DL and/or shut down, we will start talking about 2012.

Seriously though, the O's suck. You need to get that through your heads. Maybe one day they can be good... not this year, not the next. You wide eyed little optimists need to shut up and get a reality check. Have a good day friends.

I'm calling copyright infringement on "waynehouser."

Anyway, all this bashing of hope if funny to me. I feel like if this were a politics blog during WWII there would be people here saying we need to learn German and await the inevitable.

Larry,

Interesting scenario...and very likely!

Unless Bell and Snyder completely fall apart this year, they will be the corners in 11'. Even if Atkins turns things around, you can bet they'll take the cheaper route with the rookie, using the excuse that they don't want to block the youngster.

If one or both players fail to develop however, it'll be interesting to watch. Given this scenario, the smart money will be on AM once again finding short term, cheap fillers, thus buying another year in hope his prospects will develop.

Either way, the team will be left with rookies, fillers or one of each. Either way, I'm sorry to say the team will again be looking at next year..... in this case, 2012.

When AM said 'buy the bats', he didn't mean it the way many fans would hope. In his mind, he did buy the bats this year. That's reality Larry! That's his conservative, cheap approach!

From AM's history in chicago, and now with the O's, it's not difficult to predict the kind of moves he likes to make. In the modern baseball business structure, his conservative plan is always with an eye on years down the road.

Although it hasn't worked his way for a very long time, maybe we'll get lucky by 2013 or so.....

I have been an O's fan since 1973, and I have hoped they win the W.S. every year. I despise the cranks & wish they would get marooned on the "LOST" island. In 2010 I really believe the Birds will be an excellent team and will get a wild card spot. Remember that many things can happen after the season begins & before it ends.

James C,

Too late, I already bought the domain and I'm working on the copyright!

Sie sind ein lustiger Mensch

The 4:23 post wasn't mine folks.

Instead, it was just a reminder that there really are bad and pathetic people who blog.

You can call me negative, but there isn't a word for someone who post under another users name.

I have an idea who you are (Gil, you know who it is as well most likely), but let's see if you have the guts to reveal yourself.

I predict 78 wins, but would love 83.

I think expectations on Bell and Snyder are much to high. Bell version 2011 will not be better than Tejada version 2010 (good hit awful field).

Ummm... it would be important for the O's to get some good players via free agency before 2011... if there were actually any good players available. I see really only three of note. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html
Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee...

Jayson Werth might be nice, but he will be paid well above value and don't we have a right-fielder. Doesn't make sense. Carl Crawford might except the outfield isn't really where we need help. Cliff Lee isn't coming to the Orioles. No way. And they wouldn't pay him anyway (nor should they). The O's will still probably need a legitimate major league, power hitting first basemen and unless they trade for Adrian Gonzalez mid-season (not going to happen), that player just isn't out there. There is no Raphael Palmeiro to sign, though that's exactly the type of player they need to get.

Oh, wayne, you poor, misguided fool. By the way, when I refer to "wayne" I am referring to not only wayne , but his followers, as well, that includes you, gil. I believe it is you naysayers, the people whose collective heads are buried where the sun don't shine, who can't or won't see the nice little story that is developing here. You narrow eyed little pessimists need to open your eyes and shut your mouths and get a dose of reality, because the color of the sky in your world is a gloomy gray.

All of you have already consigned the Orioles to doom for the next several years. You aren't giving these blue chippers any chance, none. Fact is, the Orioles match up well with the rest of the division, and like wayne says,(yes, wayne, there is something on which you and I agree) Baltimore is not small market like KC or PIttsburgh are small market. This club has the resources to make a splash and I suspect they will.

Don't forget, everyone's favorite whipping boy, Angelos, has shown a willingness to spend and with a guy he trusts running the show, don't be surprised if he writes a big check next off-season. He's done it before, don't be shocked if he does it again.

Take the Chankees. I'm not gonna try and blow smoke up your rear ends and tell you the Orioles have an ARod or a Tex. But in all other positions, save maybe one, and on the pitching staff, the O's are the Yankees equal.

Jones vs Granderson? I'll take Jones. Winn vs Reimold/Pie? I'll take the Orioles pair. Swisher vs Markakis? Are you kidding me? Cano vs BRob is a wash and I will grant you Jeter over Izturis. And who here would rather have Posada than Wieters? And just because some combination of Atkins, Tejada, Aubrey and Wiggington aren't ARod or Teixeira, there's no reason reason the Orioles guys can put up some good numbers. And Luke Scott can rake, if we can get him to do it all year, not just for six weeks.

Face it, the Yankees won because they have 50 million committed to two players for the next seven years. For long term success, that is not the way to go, history has proven it. There is already talk of where to put Jeter(he is 36), you can't move him to 3B, ARod's there and ARod can't move to first(ARod will be 35 this year) because Tex is there. And where's the replacement for Posada(he's 37)?

Vazquez is a nice pickup, but his career has been the epitome of inconsistency. Pettite has a year or two left and I am not sure that right now Matusz is that far behind him. We've been waiting two years for Joba and Hughes, they've shown flashes, much like Tillman. And if Bergeson has a sophomore year like his freshman year.... And Guthrie has the tools to bounce back. With Mike Gonzo in the pen, taking on Sherill's old role, the pen will round in to shape. You can't tell me the Yanks' pen is any better than the Orioles. Indeed, you can't tell me that the Yankees have a better future than the Orioles.

You can make similar match-ups with the Red Sox and Rays, the I do like the BoSox rotation and the Blue Jays don't figure to beat the Orioles this year no matter what happens.

Sure, a lot has to go right, but the potential is there, more than any other team in this league. Tell me another club with the overall depth of young talent of the Orioles?

The PECOTA system from Baseball Prospectus predicts 79 wins for the Orioles this year, I believe we all would take that.

Like has been pointed out above, the key to this year is the continued development and progression of the youngsters. Without that, there is no hope.

And I will say this, and wayne, I have said this to you before, if the O's show the needed progress and next off-season the front office sits on its thumbs, then I will also be disappointed and wondering what the bleep is going on.

But until that day comes and frankly, I doubt it will, let's sit back and get behind the very good young players going out there this season to prove they belong and that they are worthy of all the hype. Does this city have the gumption to get behind these guys, for better or worse?

We'll see.

It's all about next year. Or sometime thereafter....

The article is pretty clear that the off season moves were designed to bring in guys the O's hope can be league average. We knew that. Seems to me there is an awful lot of hope in the prospects to come fill the holes. These guys are going to push the O's to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees? Yeah, I don't buy it all either.

I'll be glad to see an improved team, and the O's can't be a pitiful as last year just because there is more talent. But I sure do hope Angelos and MacPhail are forced to ante up next year and prove or disprove that they'll try to compete in the AL East. If the young players come through, next year will be put up or shit up for the "plan". Here's hoping the owner is put on the hot seat come late 2010 and that the O's are tolerable (meaning you actually want to tune in a few games a week) this year.

ken,

As misguided a fool I may be, I heard all the same things last year. Then when the season became a disaster, AM got a complete pass.

He was the one who brought in stiffs like Eaton, Hill, etc, who were just as bad as names brought in during past regimes.

Ken, can you imagine if AM didn't get lucky with Bergesen and Reimold, players he had nothing to so with? Without those guys, we're talking by far the worst team in O's history.

Sorry if I seem negative, but I was with the 78 wins program last year. Now,I'm being asked to be happy about a 14 game increase, when it still leaves them with a losing record.

What was our agreement ken, that I'll buy you a beer if they win 82 games? Ken, if they win 82 games, I'll buy you dinner in the warehouse and all the beer you want. That's a bet I'd be happy to pay.

6:21 post was not mine - could be another Jeff I guess.

wayne, last year's Orioles were a product of the misguided fools that ran the team for the previous several years. They left the team bereft of major league pitching, which was the reason for the collapse in 2001, 2002, 2003, and so on. Luckily, I was in Florida for the 4-36(or whatever it was) finish in 2001 or 2002, or whenever it was.

Who can forget the Victor Zambrano era? The Victor Santos, Russ Ortiz, Steve Trachsel or James Baldwin experiments? MacPhail last year signed Eaton, Hendrickson, Trachsel the year before, Fernando Cabrera et al because there was nothing in the cupboard. He had no choice.

Well, compare past off-seasons with this year's. A solid starter in Millwood(and he is, this is not Adam Eaton) and a solid reliever who already has a defined role(unlike the four pack that was brought in before the 2007 season when no one was quite sure what was going on). Solidifying the back end puts everyone else on track and I hope they find a way to get Sarfate back.

Don't you see, wayne? Things are different now.

All I'm trying to say is that this is not the same team on the field and not the same management team. Just because the Orioles have lost for 12 years in a row does not mean it is a certainty they will continue to lose.

Yeah, the probability is they will lose 85 to 90 games this year(so I will lose our bet), but it will be on the road to winning 85 to 90 games, or more. In the past, the team lost 95 games on the road to losing 95 games. I don't believe this will happen.

All signs point to some good things here in the next few years and while the Yankees and Red Sox get old, the Orioles' kids will be hitting their prime, or so the theory goes.

So, I say again, like you told me and the other optimists to get a reality check, I'm gonna tell you the same thing.

And Maryland just lost, ech.

ken,

Granted, things are different now! At some point though, different must = wins in order to matter. After 3 years, AM will be 0 for 3. I get year 1, and I'll give him slack for year 2. Another bad season in year 3 though, and he's no better than the others.....just different!

And the Maryland game - ugh! Looked like earlier in the season.

As I said on another thread, it is incredible to me that we have fans arguing about how "good" our losing season in 2010 is going to be. We have fans that are absolutely giddy about the prospect of a 70 something win season.

Macphail's grand experiment rolls into year four with the fans left to speculate about which of the "prospects" will excel, which will bomb.

Hope died officially for me during the 2010 offseason when Macphail missed an opportunity to upgrade the talent level on the team thorugh FA's and trades.

Here are the Five Commandments of the "Plan" true believers, bow your heads and repeat after me:

1.Thou shalt not trade thy prospects

2. Thou will not sign free agents that may block thy prospects.

3. Thou shall not spend tribute on Free agents since they are not worthy.

4. Thou shall not offer name Free Agents a contract as they will not come here anyhow.

5. Thou shalt not worship winning, for it is a vice. Thou should only believe in "the plan" for one day it will surely deliver us to the .500 mark

I'm not sure what I want more, the continued development of our "deep" pool of talent or censorship of whiners like Wayne. Pete, since you and the Sun control only one, I'll add my mojo to the Kool Aide Collective. Trusting you'll take care of the light work.

Wayne,

I noticed what you were referring to in the last week. A dozen new posters have shown up all with the same inimitiable style of several already here, Doesn't take Dick Tracey for me to figure out who they are.

Time for Pete to cross check computer URL's and recocgnize one per computer

What about it Pete?

What planet are you on Gil?
Macphail did upgrade through trades and free agents (Millwood Miggy etc.) Just not the ones you wanted. Actually better than the ones you wanted but we won't let facts get in the way. Oh, yeah we should have offered Holliday 10 years and 200 million to fill a position we didn't need help in.
I see the fact that Macphail is entering his third full year at the helm doesn't stop you from continuing to call it his 4th. Oh yeah because you were asked to straighten out a dept of a bank and they didn't give you 5 years, you think straightening out a large dysfunctional major league team only needed 90 days also.
Give it a break at least until June, won't you. Very tiresome from you guys especially repeating the same errors.
C\You and W JS the used car salesman should brainstorm to come up with some new stuff.

Her Gil, to help you count
2 off seasons to sign free agents
2 off seasons to make trades
2 full years to analyze above trades and free agents.
OK Gil now how many seasons has AM's plan had a chance to show fruition?
Surely you won't lay that mess of a club that he had to watch through the first summer he got here?
The said team that he didn't have anything to do with? He just had to watch with the rest of us?
Cmon Gil, even though you may have gone to public school, I think you realize we are entering the third year of Macphails reign as GM.
Can't we just see how this 3rde full season plays out before you continue your rants?

I don't know, Gil, they offered Texeira something like 160/8 and while I doubt Boras's story of the Orioles offering 130, I'm sure there was some discussion of compensation for Matt Holliday.

Lest we forget, they offered Paul Konerko a contract a couple of years ago and the Orioles have signed several FAs in the past five years, starting with Tejada/Lopez/Palmeiro before the 2003 season. Its just that they haven't signed the right guys. That takes care of Commandment 4. On to the others....

Commandment 1. Why should they trade prospects? MacPhail has gone to great lengths to resupply the farm system with high caliber guys. So, of course, as soon as we get them, you want to trade them. My guess is you are referring to Adrian Gonzales. The Padres really didn't want to trade him, they don't have to, the Red Sox made a very good offer that was turned down and while the Orioles had talks with SD and likely could have come up with a good package, the cost would have been too much for a guy that might have only been here for a couple of years.
If you're going to make a great effort to restock the system, makes no sense to trade the youngins before they even have a chance to shine.

When the Orioles are contending, don't be surprised if prospects are dealt to shore up weak areas. That's the time to do it.

Commandment 2 and 3:
"Hope died officially for me during the 2010 offseason when Macphail missed an opportunity to upgrade the talent level on the team thorugh FA's and trades."

What free agents would you have them sign? There was nothing out there this year worth anything and in case you haven't noticed, the Orioles signed three guys, four if you count Hendrickson, and traded for another. Those guys might not be Ruth, Mantle and Mays, but they are solid major leaguers who have improved the team.

Commandment 5. This one is ludicrous, I expected better from you.

Winning is a vice? Are you insane? You think what Mac has done hasn't been for the purpose of building a long time contender? Over the history of sport, any sport, the policy of home growing your talent has proven time and time again as the right way to build a winner.

Sure, they could have dropped 120/7 on a LF, 80/6 on a pitcher who is a DL visit waiting to happen, another 80 for a number three starter coming off an 11 win season and two years where he totaled 53 starts. But all those contracts do is hamstring those teams when the players start to go bad. Have you noticed, Gil, the situation in LF on the northside of Chicago? Oh, I'm sorry, that touches on Commandments 2-3-4 and we already covered them.

What MacPhail has done is build the foundation for a consistent contender. Will they win a series or two? Who knows? But there is every reason to believe that the pieces are here to at least be in the conversation down the road.

I give you as an example, the Washington Capitals, if not the best team in the NHL, then certainly one of the top three.

Years ago, they signed to a big contract Jaromir Jagr, a big time scorer and talent. But the contract prevented them from putting a good cast around him and his tenure in DC was wasted.

The GM, George McPhee, then went back to what he wanted to do(signing Jagr was the owner's idea) and that was building thru the draft. An Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Mike Green, Nik Backstrom, Jeff Schultz et al and a couple of key trades later, the Caps are rolling, and what's more, those guys are young(none over 24) and the Caps are going to be winners for years to come. They are doing the same thing in Chicago with the Blackhawks.

That's what Andy MacPhail is trying to do, build from within and re-instill the winning ways from top to bottom. Indeed, you could call Mac the second coming of Frank Cashen or Harry Dalton.

wayne and gil, sure I will accept 70 wins and no I won't be giddy about it, but I know, even if you don't, that the guys losing 70 this year are likely going to be the guys winning 90 or more in the future. I know there are no guarantees, but these guys are as close as you're going to get.

These guys are young, talented, hungry, enthusiastic and dying to prove they are as good as everyone thinks and hopes they are. They know they are going to take their lumps, but they will be learning and progressing. This is the kind of team to get behind and support.

Like I said before, let's see if this city has the gumption to get with the program and get out and support them.

Gil,

It's not a new trick, although it is a desperate one. I do believe ken to be legit and his own man. The other though, well.... it is what it is......

Hi Bill,

That was a terriffic filibuster. Save the insults about the public school system for those who attended. I am a product of a catholic education, although my children are doing did just fine in the public schools, one has a Master's degree in Education, my daughter is a veterenarian another is working on an engineering degree at VPI. One is still home and will start as a 9th grader on the varsity baseball team and ia a straight A student in the "Public" School system.

That comment of yours ended our discussions.

Gil,
Didn't mean to offend only making a point with some humor. sorry you didn't see that.
I went to Balto. City public schools as you can see by my lack of good spelling etc..

Ken,

Laroche and Kouzmanoff should have been signed, and would have been a significant talent upgrade to the major league club. It was purely over money, Macphail pretty much admitted it. They should have traded for or signed another bonafide experienced starting pitcher.

Ken, I was a Macphail supporter until the offseason of 2008 just before the 2009 season when the ether wore off and I realized Macphail was going to try to go on the cheap, entirely by prospect development and promotion of same. I have given him an A+ for the job he has done with the farm system and an F for the level of talent at the major league level. He could have done both incrementally and it is not a zero sum game.

This elongated experiment added to the ten years down the drain before he got here is absolutely uncalled for, and would have only taken a few tweaks in the plan to get better on the field while rebuilding.

When I realized that this was not a 5 year rebuilding plan, but moreover 5 years just to see what the quality of the prospects were, I got off the train.

Angelos hired Macphail to get the heat off himself and also because he knew the fans would buy the rebuilding hoax hook, line and sinker while he banked the profits. I am absolutely convinced of that.

I appreciate your opinion and as I have said many times on the blog I don't always claim to be right. We shall see how much patience people have as this year plays out.

Bill,

I can tell you are frustrated with people who question the plan. As I just told Ken, I was happy when Macphail got here. I watched his grandfather help build the great Oriole teams through pitching and defense.

My expectations were that Macphail would rebuild the farm system and simultaneously and incrementally try to improve the talent level at the major laegue level, in deference to the fans who had already suffered through 10 losing seasons. I became alarmed when I saw that Macphail was not concerned about how many more losing seasons he might pile on, but was focused entirely on the farm system. That is a risky gambit and an inexact science. There can be no timetable for producing a winning team and it is prbably closer to a 10 year project than five the way he approached it.

There were moves that could have been made in the last few years that would have put the team in a position to compete. That was never in the cards.

I felt that this offseason was a n opportunity for Macphail to stop being a minimalist and bring in some genuine talent. It didn't happen. What we got was just Ok at best. He is waiting on the prsopects and is betting the farm on his approach. I think the fans deserve better than an experiment at this point.

Hey Gil,
Lets just at least give Mr. Macphail till his 3rd anniversary (what was it late june early July 07?). I really think this season is more about wins and losses as Trembley has been warned but also for AM. You'll have to admit this is the first season that all the players are his. The bad contracts have played themselves out. he pulled off some nice trades. Of course the drafts need a couple more years in baseball to see how they play out, but basically the 25 man roster is his responsibility. Can't we just see how it goes for the first three months. I mean with spring coming and all the young kids and all the young pitching....let's just see it play out a bit? Sit back and enjoy (I hope)....oh there's that word again....HOPE...that is a good word you know...

O Wild night... Got together w the Collective, forced me they did to guzzle a gallon of good ole Orange Kool Aide; Knowing the result be akin to digging a hole, not w a shovel but tiny dull spade. Nevertheless I awoke covered in black ink as if visions of past Championships and I had danced in my sleep, has it really almost been 30 years since the O's paraded down Charles Street? This everpresent fact lost on symetrical baseball Gods, my dreams welcomed us from this horrible fate amidst hordes of hometown fans once again at the gate. Castrated though we may feel, boiled even to hate, after a decade and more, under the score of bad judgement, indeed, all ills that deflate. Still it is deeply held these Birds have no more connection to past transgressions than a pre- schooler does to say, a biology lesson. No. No, this stupor cannot wear off. The gut keeps telling me, whilest the stove cools and is no longer hot, There is absolutely NO ONE to stop us from asking once again, together, WHY NOT?

Incremental change is something that happens at a steady if not slow pace. By definition, the only people on this board who can claim or be accused of being incrementalists are those who are happy with the steady progress MacPhail has made so far.

Hoping that the Orioles would be a winner by MacPhail's third year was a wish for transformative change, since turning around teams as bad as we were 2 years ago that quickly is historicly somewhat rare.

Wayne,
I know you like to play the devil's advocate, but you cannot tell me that there was/is anyone who could seriously impact our organization in the FA class this year. We could always use bullpen help, but then again, who couldn't? The only player I think we should have seriously pursued was Chone Figgins, who would have been a very nice addition. After we see what these kids can do for a FULL season, we will be in a better frame of mind to decide what we need, and we will be in a better market of FA. We may also have some bargaining chips after this year to make some trades. If we could leverage Sandoval away from the Giants, add a front line ace, and a lights out long reliever for '11, then we would be a nasty beast.
No matter how you cut it, no matter who we brought in, we would still not be a contender this year....

Bill,

Of course I have hope, but absolutely no faith that Macphail will do the right things when and if the time is right. This offseason will be looked back as one of missed opportunity several years from now. We could have been better right now. a lot better, and still kept rebuilding.

The opinion that the O's could have been a lot better with different moves is just an opinion.

I'm not sure there was a far better set of moves to be made this winter given the limited FA market and the fact that there are two more seasons on a couple young impact player's deals. Next winter SD and Milwaukee my be willing to deal & the O's better be ready.

Atkins could fall on his face, the O's have scouts that apparently feel otherwise. Tejada could age quickly, or he could have a solid year and provide veteran stability in the middle of that batting order. Again it comes down to scouting.

Point I was trying to make when I first started to post, fixing scouting has to come first. The O's let their scouting unrepaired for nearly 20 yrs. That's why they bumbled around for years. Making trades,signing FA's, and drafting, signing, and developing prospects all start with scouting.

You don't have to be a scout to see how terrible the O's minors had been for years, now there's a wave of legit young players working their way through the system. And I'm not taking the O's word for it, I've seen them compete against their peers at Frederick & Bowie.

My quess is the O's finish some where between 75-85 wins, I'd expect it to be on the high side of that or Trembly's toast. I'd expect that 55-65 of those wins come from the starting rotation.

Tejada will anchor the batting order and his HR's will be in the range of 20+, not cause he's back on the juice, but because he's in the 4 hole and trying to drive the ball instead of taking a lot of pitches batting second.

That's all my opinion, just like most everything else on here is an just an opinion too. Just because somebody posts their's all day, every day, doesn't make their's right.

17 days until the REAL hype begins

Warehousers can't even sleep at night in anticipation..........

Wayne and Gil,

I have not posted on Pete's blog most of the offseason, but I have followed the conversation pretty closely. However, I'm not sure if I've ever read what you guys would have done this year to make the Orioles better at the major league level in 2010. You blast the front office and Angelos, and, in many ways, rightly so. I could certainly do without the constant barrage of negativity and sarcasm in every post, but I think you feel the same way as many fans do. I am as tired of the losing and excuse making as you are. But, and this is important, I don't really know what the Orioles could have done this year to make the team significantly better in the short run. What was the "wasted opportunity" of this offseason?

There are only two guys that I think would have made a huge difference in the standings, and those were Holliday and Lackey. Adrian Gonzalez would have also been nice, but you have to assume the price would have been astronomical, and it's not like anyone else in the league had serious discussions with the Padres about him. But with Lackey and Holliday, both got insanely long deals and are not anything close to a sure thing. Lackey has been injured for the last couple years, and while a very good pitcher is not a true ace anymore, at least in the mold of guys like Sabbathia and Lincecum. Holliday is probably a top fifteen or so outfielder, but I don’t think that contract will be looking too great when he is 37 or 38 years old. Having said that, though, it would have been nice to see the Orioles go after those guys.

The only real miss that I saw this offseason was the lack of interest in Chone Figgins. Of course, it is also likely that he wanted to stay on the West Coast, since he signed with the Mariners a week or so after free agency. As for the rest of the free agent crop, our bargain bin pickups will probably do as well as almost anyone else. This was an extraordinarly weak free agent year. Offseasons have to be judged relative to the talent that is available, not the talent we wish was available.

If the O’s do improve, even by only (gasp!) ten games, and do nothing next offseason, then I will be right where you guys are.

Hi Joe,

Scott Kouzmanoff at third, Andy Laroche at first, and either a Rich Harden or a Randy Wolf to solidify a rotation of Millwood, Guthrie, Bergenson, and Matusz.

They were available and it was all about the money. It will always be about the money as long as Macphail is here and can rationalize a reason not to spend it.

Joe,

Figgins plugged in the #2 hole would have been amazing for a team desperate to score runs. 300 avg, 100 walks, 40 sb's, behind BRob - would have been amazing (see Ichiro and figgins in seattle). And if you never went after players who had a preference of which coast they wanted to play near, you'd always be handcuffed.

Laroche at 1B, batting in the 4 hole would have been fantastic. An experienced vet who's been consistently productive. Someone who has power who can protect the young developing players in the middle of the order. Come on!

Add to that both players would be playing the positions the played last year, thus we'd be a much better defensive team as well.

Throw in one additional solid starter to the rotation..... someone who allows the 3 (basically) rookies to come along at a better pace, and damn......

Do all three, and they'd STILL be near the middle of the pack in payroll.

Then, as John Madden would say:

'BOOM, BAM, WHOMP'

This team is fun to watch in 2010.

As it is though.......... we have to HYPE the hell out of the possibility of 75 wins.

We have to hype Millwood (see 07 and 08, Miggy (some say he's 39), and Atkins (embarrassing #'s).

I mean really ---- Tampa must be sweating bullets!

Just to respond briefly to the money comment, Laroche and Atkins are making the same amount this season. Now, if you want to argue that you would rather have Laroche than Atkins, that is an argument worth having. But in this case, it is certainly not about money. Additionally, their career numbers are nearly identical. Yes, you could say Laroche is more consistent, but he is also a consistently terrible first half player that has played for 5 teams since 2004. So, I don't find it a slam dunk that Laroche is light years better than Atkins, especially for one year.

Chone Figgins, yet again, was absolutely never going to come here. I would have liked to have him as well, and I agree he would have been a great #2 hitter. But, again, I think you have to question whether he will be an elite or even good player at age 36 (he is signed for 4 years). The Orioles would have had to pay, almost certainly, significantly more than the Mariners for any number of reasons, not least of which is that the Mariners are truly on the verge of being the best team in the AL West. So, it would likely have required 5 years, 55-65 million to get him. Is that honestly worth it? Again, he is valuable given the dearth of other options, but that value is relative.

As for Kouzmanoff, I also wanted the Orioles to pursue him. I really think the reason they did not was not about money, as Tejada got 6 mil, but rather that they believe in Josh Bell. Time will tell if they are right about him, but I think the Kouzmanoff non-deal had a lot to do with their position on Bell.

And Randy Wolf? A pitcher no less or more mediocre than Millwood, who takes a rotation spot away from Tillman, Matusz, or Bergeson, and a guy who signed a multi-year deal with the Brewers. What’s the point? Rich Harden? Constantly injured, often unable to go more than 5 or 6 innings even when healthy. He’s obviously a great talent, but much like Sheets or Bedard, completely unreliable.

The bottom line, is that while these are all good players, none of them makes the Orioles a contender this season. In several cases, signing them would probably do more harm than good. Besides, I don't think Andy Laroche and Randy Wolf would make anyone, much less Tampa, sweat bullets. Again, next year’s free agent class is vastly superior. If we want to improve, that’s when we do it. If not, you guys are right about Macphail and his plan.

Throw out last year and Laroche and Atkins numbers aren't that far apart. Kouz, Figgins, or Tejada at third, can't see more then a handful of difference either way. The O's need a middle of the order hitter more then a #2 hitter.

Not sure who "some" is they may be first cousins to "they", but my mother told me to always ignore em' all. Miggy will still out hit Kouz if he's 50. Figgins is out of position as a 3rd baseman I'd considered signing him and slid him to SS.

Starting pitching, Bergenson,Tillman, and Matusz showed enough last year to pencil them in the rotation. They've got more talent then any of the pitchers either of you mentioned.

All and all, make all the moves you've both suggested and the O's might, I mean might challenge TB for 3. And you'd have set back giving the O's young talented pitchers experience in the rotation.

At some point fella's the young pitchers have got to sink or swim, they're the center peices of the rebuilding plan. And behind them are another batch. Hold these guys off a year and you've just got more in experienced starters next year.

If Matusz, Bergy, and Tillman avg. 12 wins apiece we're looking at an 80-85 win year. Not a bad step forward. One or more may struggle, but like I said, there's another group behind them.

The key is to develop the young pitching talent in order to compete.

Joe,

The players I mentioned would have made the Orioles a better team this year. Tejada was a panic signing, it was either him or Crede since pretty much everything else was gone. Tejada is a big defensive gamble moving to third at this stage of his career.

Yes Joe, it was about the money and Macpahil pretty mcuh admitted that at fanfest. You are right that he doesn't want to block any of the prospects. he's the GM and that is his decision. We will see how it works out for him.

Tillman would have been much better off working out of the bullpen to start the year and work on developing three pitches that he can command.

I love the lines like.......

'if you throw out last year', when talking about guys like Atkins. Classic!

or

'he never would have come here', when talking about just about anyone.....

or

'they wouldn't have made the team a contender this year'... something that's repeated every year.

It really helps to make any rational debate useless.

Listen, if the O's had a track record (at all) and if AM wasn't so (he admits it himself) so awful the decade he was in Chicago, then I could give the benefit of the doubt.... In fact, I'D LOVE to give the benefit of the doubt.

To do so though, your arguments have to be more than just warehouse type spin. There's not a jury or mediator in the world (well maybe in third world country's) who would come down on your side. The losing (and yes, even the AM losing), would prevail.

But, with all that said, you should enjoy the countdown to camp. If anything, it means that Summer can't be that far away. And for me, I'll take sitting out at the park on a beautiful summer night over a February night, anytime - even if the losing continues... and the losing will continue. Sorry!

"Tejada will anchor the batting order and his HR's will be in the range of 20+, not cause he's back on the juice, but because he's in the 4 hole and trying to drive the ball instead of taking a lot of pitches batting second."

Had to laugh at this, Mountain Fan.

I don't think Miggy's ever taken a lot of pitches. His single season high for walks was 66, and that was 10 years ago. The guy walked just 43 times in over 1300 plate appearances in Houston. He's a textbook "you can't walk off the island" Dominican.

Why do you think he grounds into so many double plays?

Gil, you say they players you mentioned would make the Orioles better, but that is, in the immortal words of the Dude, "like, your opinion, man." What if Laroche started out, like he always does, hitting .220 with 5 homers in April and May? What if Harden stubs his toe and goes on the DL? What if Randy Wolf, a career National Leaguer, gets completely lit up in the AL East? You aren't talking about sure things. You're talking about mid-level guys who have never won anything. The reason none of them signed with elite teams is that they aren't elite players.

Also, you completely fail to respond to the fact that Atkins and Laroche have the exact same contract for 2010. If you think Laroche is a better player, that's fine, but it is objectively not about money. Both got 1 year, 4.5 mil deals. Oh, and Tejada and Kouzmanoff? Tejada signed for 6 mil this year, Kouz for 3.1. I know that doesn't fit the narrative, but facts often don't.

Let me propose a possible future for next year. Matusz, Bergesen and Tillman all have solid years with Matusz actually becoming the Os ace. Gonzalez is a highly capapble closer. Reimold and Jones have years in the .290 25 90 range. Pie plays more and hits .285 with 15 HRS. Weiters hits .300 30 120. On the farm, Bell,Snyder, Patton, Arrieta and Hernandez all appear to be ready to move up. Atkins is a failure and Miggy has a good year. With the youngsters showing promise, the Os trade Tillman, Arrieta, Pie and Snyder to Milwaukee for Fielder and sign him to a 7 year, 150 mil extension. Then, IT'S ON!

Wayne,

You think I want to give this team the benefit of the doubt? I was born in 1984, which means I have never seen a World Series with the Orioles actually in it. I was at the deciding games of both the 1996 and 1997 ALCS, both of which we of course lost. The only really amazing moment in my time as an Orioles fan was 2131, which I had the incredibly fortune to attend. One night in 25 years. You think it's all sunshine and roses? You think I toe the company line for...well, I have no idea why you think anyone would toe the company line. I want this team to win. Just because I don't complain and moan constantly about it doesn't mean I, or anyone else, wants it less than you do.

I also know, however, that no one was going to get this team to compete this year. We could have signed Lackey, Holliday, and Figgins and still probably barely been in the wild card running. There has been too much mismanagement, dumb decisions, and downright bad luck that has plagued this franchise for too long for it to simply turn around in a year. You know how Tampa did it? Developing their players, making one or two nice moves, and having a season where everyone had career years.

We can do that. We have talent comparable to what Tampa had, but it's not ready yet. We got a late start, and that sucks, and we are probably going to have to sit through another losing season. But, I'd rather the team be in a position to make a serious run at the big time free agents next offseason than be stuck with bad contracts and players with declining skills. I want us to sign players and trade for players that aren't going to help us win five more games, but that help us go to the playoffs. The Laroche's, Kouzmanoff's, Harden's, and even Figgins' aren't going to do that. So, you know, sit there and say I work for the front office, or that I'm a fool who loves losing, or whatever, since that seems to be your response to everyone. I'll sit here and wait for that glorious day when baseball starts again.

Joe,

That's right it is my opinion, and I'm tired of the back and fourth. Laroche and Kouzmanoff and a Harden or a Wolf would have masde this a better team going in, and that is not hypothetical. I think most people would look at those players, vs. Atkins, Tejada, and no Harden and or Wolf and agree, but not you Joe. And that's Ok. Next subject.

Joe -

Bad plan giving up your birth year.

You're about to be hit with the "You're too young to understand what a winning franchise is" line.

Gil,

I recognize this is all opinion, and you are more than entitled to yours. Again, though, I have to wonder why you think the Orioles didn't pursue those guys, since it was certainly not about money, at least in the Atkins/Tejada scenario. I'm honestly interested.

Not Brooks,

Well, at the very least, I know how not to do it. The Orioles have given me a pretty good education in that respect. Of course, we all forget that the good team in town has won almost exclusively by drafting and developing their own players and not spending wildly on mediocre free agents (let's pretend Dominque Foxworth never happened for this to work).

'no one was going to get this team to compete this year'

That's another common line of reasoning we often here when it comes to FA's.

And that's exactly how AM and company want you to think.

To say that guys like Figgins, Laroche, and another quality starting pitcher, wouldn't have made this team more pleasurable to watch (can't we all at least ask for that?) really makes the debate ridiculous.

I mean some people are saying Atkins and Laroche's #'s were similar in 2008. And we're suppose to forget about 2009 stats, why?

Someone even questioned what the Figgins stats would be 4 years from now. Such a statement really can't be commented on.

By the way, no one said to break the bank here.... Just middle of the ole pack spending. Nothing more, nothing less.

Uncle guys........ I get it (i'm with you Gil, the back and forth on this is mind numbing), it's all about 2011, 2012, etc..... (insert Cubs pressing about AM here).

Enjoy your 75 win season, knowing that more rookies are coming up next year....

Now please... hype among yourselves!

Man, I'm glad I don't have work today! Wayne and Gil, you're tired of the back and forth? Really? I mean, that is pretty laughable, considering the sheer amount of posts you guys have had over the last few months. Wayne, you have hijacked this blog time and again, but now the back and forth is "mind numbing"? Maybe I should have started posting sooner, if it means you would stop commenting.

For Figgins stats 4 years from now, if it can't be commented on, then why were you so excited about the possibility signing him? He would never in a million years accept a one or two year deal with anyone, much less the Orioles, so I think it's pretty relevant to discuss how good or bad he might be for the entire length of the contract. Do you buy stock and not care what it's likely to do in four years?

I will agree with ok?ne thing, Wayne. It really is sad how far we have fallen, that watching Adam Laroche play is now somehow "enjoyable." A guy who puts up average numbers and can't stick with a team (he was traded not once, but twice last season) now makes it fun to go to the ballpark? Good grief.

Just for fun...

1B - LaRoche... 30 years old. Averaged 26 home runs, .500 SLG% per year over the past four. Notoriously slow starter. Somewhat discouraging home/away splits. Solid glove. Numbers would probably look better if he hadn't played for the Pirates for 2.5 years.

3B - Kouzmanoff... 28 years old. Averaged 20 home runs per year over the past three. Home/away splits show he's a much better hitter outside of Petco: .284/.328/.477 on the road. Good defensive third baseman

SP - Wolf... 33 years old. Solid, if unspectacular, career NLer. Injury history is an issue: Averaged only 16 starts per year from '04-'07. 4.58 ERA in three seasons throwing half of his starts in hitter friendly Citizen's Bank Park. Renaissance in '08-'09 while throwing half of his starts in pitcher friendly Petco, Minute Maid and Dodger Stadium.

SP - Harden... 28 years old. One of the best pitchers in the game when healthy. But... Injuries are a huge issue: Never thrown 200 innings. More than 26 starts just once in six full seasons. Spent first 5.5 seasons in pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum, then switched to the NL.

vs.

1B - Atkins... 30 years old. Home/away splits are horrific: .327/.385/.507 at Coors, .252/.324/.411 on the road. Has been in a consistent decline since career year in 2006. BABIP was way down in 2009, so he's probably not that bad. A natural first baseman who moved to third because he was blocked by Todd Helton. Not much of a defender at either corner though.

3B - Tejada... 36 years old. Never walks. Grounds into a ton of double plays. Still a bit of pop though. Defense is a giant question mark, as he's never played third base in the bigs.

SP - Millwood... 35 years old. Wealth of knowledge and experience. Innings eater. Decent track record against the AL East. Experienced moderate success in a hitters park in the AL (Texas). Ugly 5.12 ERA '07-'08, but a very nice rebound in '09.

Just some thoughts and numbers for everyone...

Anyone who posts here regularly loves the back and forth.

We've all tried to deny it, but the fact that we keep coming back shows that we can't help it.

RE:
Seriously though, the O's suck. You need to get that through your heads. Maybe one day they can be good... not this year, not the next. You wide eyed little optimists need to shut up and get a reality check. Have a good day friends.

Yawn.

Noteworthy news: The Mariners just signed Ryan Garko for $550K. He can earn another $525K in plate appearance incentives.

My take: Why on earth did the O's ignore this guy? Didn't Andy say something about improving the team's numbers against lefty pitchers? Garko's got an .870 OPS vs. lefties. A DH platoon with Scott (.788 OPS vs. lefties) would have been perfect. And Garko would have been a nice insurance plan at first base just in case Atkins turns out to be worthless.

Once again, Orioles, it's not a bad thing to have too many good players on a baseball team.

The reason my name appears as much as it does is because I only go by one name. Others however, appear to post less, but only because they go by multiple names.... To each their own.

My point about Figgins was that it's incredible how one automatically suggest he'll be in decline in 4 years....

It doesn't matter who the FA is though. They're either not good enough for the O's or they won't come here, Meanwhile, our prospects are so amazing that this team will be competing in 2011.....

Doesn't matter that there are a load of teams (already much better than the O's) who have just as many, if not more prospects than the O's.

Bottom line, and this can't be debated.....

EVERYONE last year said 'it's not about this year', and EVERYONE also said 'we'll be in position to compete in 2010'.

Now that it's next year.....

EVERYONE says 'it's not about this year, and EVERYONE also says 'we'll be in position to compete in 2011'.

Next year this time......

EVERYONE....... well, you get it!

Hey Doug, we need one of your team slogans.

nb,

He would have blocked, ummmm, I don't know, someone! I lose track!

The Mariners are a team who was awful last year, but who's trying to compete this year...all while developing some nice young players.

I can't imagine how it must feel to have a team who actually attempts to win baseball games now, as well as in the future....

wayne -

I'm not at all siding with those who say the O's shouldn't have even tried to snag Figgins, but it certainly isn't absurd to suggest that any player will be in his decline stage at 33, 34, 35 years old.

Not Brooks, Joe

The discussion we were having was about Laroche and Kouzmanoff vs. Tejada and Atkins, PLUS another starter not Harden/Wolf vs. Millwood but in addition to. I like my argument, but Joe doesn't and nothing either of us say is going to change either of our minds.

As far as the money is concerned Macphail flat out admitted that Laroche signed for a little more than the Orioles wanted to pay. At fan fest he inferred the same thing about Kouzmanoff.

Who knows, Mountain Man may be right and Tejada may make me look like a fool if he hits 25 Home runs, drives in 100 and draws 75 walks and fields like Brooks Robinson. It could happen.

wayne -

To be fair, it's probably comforting to know that you've only got to compete against three other teams instead of four and that two out of the Angels, A's and Rangers aren't going to go out and spend $150M+ on payroll.

But, either way, I'd take Jack Zduriencik over Andy MacPhail any day.

Gil, I agree that signing Wolf or Harden would make the team better this year, but there are two problems as I see it. In both cases, each would be blocking one of Matusz, Tillman, and/or Bergesen, which strikes me as a step backward for the young guys. I just don't think it's worth it to slow the development of our young pitchers for one year of a guy (Harden) who can't stay healthy and had a down year in the weak NL last season. In Wolf's case, he ended up signing for three years, which is likely going to look disastrous this time next year. Again, two good pitchers, but I don't think either will be significantly better than what we have and, frankly, I'd much rather watch one of our young guys than either of those two.

Also, even if we aren't going to change each other's minds, I still find this to be an interesting conversation. Not to mention, of course, that we are engaging in a forum that has no other purpose but argument and conversation. That's what makes it fun.

I am confused, though, about this money issue. Combined, Atkins and Tejada are costing the O's more this year in terms of dollars than Laroche/Kouz. Maybe Macphail was talking about prospects in the case of Kouz?

Guys like LaRoche, Atkins, Garko, etc. all would seem more filler than anything else and all were signed to short contracts. Watching any one of them seems boring to me and I for one would rather watch guys like Tillman, Bergesen and Reimold. And, I would think we'll get to see Snyder and Bell late this year to better understand what the 2011 needs really are. I can't understand why some feel that approach is unattractive. We've all watched a lot of losers (I'm old enough to remember the late 50's and early 60's) and it's fun watching guys rise to the level of Brooks and Boog. My money is on Reimold (good eye, patient bat), Bergesen (a pitcher in an era of throwers) Matusz and Brittan but you have to try them all out or otherwise run the risk of trading the next Schilling or Finley. Bottomline though is it's all about TV ratings first and when a team is this far back trying for anything other than entertainment value would seem a bit unrealistic.

you can't not look at atkins' #s from last year, however its ok to say "look at millwood in '07 an d'08?" one of the negative posters consistently brings it up. everyone'll spin numbers to make their point.

I'd have loved to see Miggy at 3rd and Laroche at 1st. Laroche was really frustrating, not because he's the answer to a world title, but because he was the best of an ok lot and he signed for 4.5 million, which is cheap based on his past performances. I, like Gil and Wayne, would like to see the Os put as good a product on the field each year as possible...they can do it and still stick to a longer range plan.

LOVE harden's stuff but i like that another team will take the gamble for 1 year (i think) and he'll be a FA next year.

Good points, Joe. My feeling was to start Tillman in the bullpen, not necessarily block him, but take the pressure off three young pitchers all having to hit the ground running in 2010. Don't get me wrong, I like Tillman, he has major Laegue stuff and reminds me of a young Jim Palmer. He can clearly overmatch hitters at all levels of the minors but is not as polished as Bergenson and Matusz. I saw all three of them pitch last year and Tillman was the one who had trouble finishing patient hitters off, just like Bedard did early on. So when we started you asked me what I thought the Orioles could have done over the winter that could have made a difference and I thought it was Laroche, Kouzmanoff and a pitcher like a Harden or a Randy Wolf that could have stabilized the rotation a little. Millwood was a good addition and an innings eater.

Joe, I think it had to do more with timing than the money that he ended up paying. At fanfest, Macphail freely admitted that he wanted to let the market play out and not try to set it. He said at one point he had a 100 potential names on his list to consider. He also wanted to balance the lineup more against left handed pitching and that's why he said he took a chance with Atkins. He said he was very disappointed in the way the Orioles performed gainst left handed pitching last year. To get Kouzmanoff, who had been traded a month before the Orioles signed atkins, Macpahil would have to have acted aggressively to put something together and that's not where it appeared he wanted to be.

Timing is everything. I think you can make a case for the players Macphail signed over the players he didn't sign, but I definitely agree that timing does play a crucial role. I, too, really wanted to see Macphail go after Kouzmanoff, and I think we could have gotten him relatively painlessly. Again, I have to believe that Macphail really expects Josh Bell to be a contributor in the near future, and didn't want to block him with Kouz. I'm not sure I'm that optimistic about Bell, but I think that's why he was so concerned with getting a one year option at third.

My biggest criticism of Macphail is probably yours, in that he seems too methodical and risk averse. In most cases, I think this is actually a good trait, especially for an organization that has been defined by reactionary moves that ended up costing the team. Not to bring up Figgins again, but an expensive, five year contract would, I think, have been disastrous.

I do worry, though, that his snail's pace could cost us next year. Again, this free agent bunch was mostly crap, one seems just as good as the next. Next year, however, there are some very good players that could really make this club a contender, and I am concerned that Macphail's cautious nature will be an obstacle. I really think it's less about being cheap and more about being overly conservative and risk-averse. In the AL East, that's not gonna work.

Joe, as jimmy jazz, another poster put it so eloquently a couple weeks ago and to paraphrase: If the young players and prospects perform as well or better than expected in 2010 and 2011 The Orioles are really into something and"the time could be right". If many of them bomb out, for a variety of reasons, we are back to the drawing board and the whole process starts over.

Not Brooks,
Did I mention a thing about Tejada walking? He'll drive the ball more sitting in the 4 hole then in the two hole behind a LL base stealer.

As for pitching, if you have a guy with the stuff, sooner or later he's just got to pitch. Pitching Tillman out of the pen is a not a plan to develop a starter. If he needs to work on another pitch have him do it at Norfolk, not when he's trying to keep you in a game.

All of Wayne & Gil's combined moves would have at best lead to a third place team, can't tell me that their supposed baseball knowledge would have led to a team that could actually been better.

You go Ken, the pair of them will never admit when they're wrong, they'll just want to start calling you a warehouser if you don't agree with them 100%.

There is help on the way, I've seen it at Bowie and Frederick. I'm going to enjoy the O's breaking spring with a talented young team that's got a chance to compete. And I'll still stick by my 75-85 win prediction

Gil,

Couldn't agree more. No matter what the O's did this offseason, we need the young guys to pan out. It's risky, but not much more risky than banking on high priced veterans. Look at all the years the Yankees spent wildly and didn't win, and no other team in baseball can spend to that level. If the young guys don't pan out, at least the team is not stuck with debilitating contracts that handcuffs us for another decade.

MountainFan -

I took this quote to mean that Tejada would take a lot of pitches if he was in the two hole.

"Tejada will anchor the batting order and his HR's will be in the range of 20+, not cause he's back on the juice, but because he's in the 4 hole and trying to drive the ball instead of taking a lot of pitches batting second."

My apologies if I was wrong.

I agree with you on Tillman. If he needs to work on something, don't make him do it in pressure situations. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem likely that Berken or Hernandez will challenge for Tillman's rotation spot, so I expect Tillman to take the ball every fifth day for the O's. Hopefully that won't stunt his development.

I don't think you could be more wrong in your assessment of Gil. He's more than willing to admit that he doesn't know everything and that he's been proven wrong. And I don't think I've ever seen him call someone a "warehouser".

You're right about wayne though. It drives me crazy that you can't get a single answer out of the guy. But I suspect that he knows that he drives people crazy and he enjoys it.

Anyways, in the end, they're both right until Andy and the O's prove them wrong.

I'm hoping for that as much as you are.

Someone mentioned that the Mariners were awful last year. That is just not true. We were 85-77, which is not great, but is not anywhere near awful.

Also, the market dictated that our team had to be aggressive this winter because we were losing guys like Branyan and Beltre to FA and had no one near ready in the minors to replace them. The Figgins signing made sense for us because it not only helped us, but took away from our division rivals as well. We were fairly close in the running last year, but we'll be on top of the west this year. Go M's!

Good luck to you guys too.

MountainFan I am laughing out loud, not at you but with you. I constantly say I don't claim to be right. I also didn't suggest that the moves I discussed with Joe would vault them over Tampa Bay, in which case we could be talkin' a run for the wild card. I like Laroche, Kouzmanoff and Harden or Wolf, but they might help get the team to 81 wins at best. I go to Bowie and I go to Frederick and I enjoy minor league baseball. Sounds like you are a good fan.

First rumor is out that Joe Mauer and the Twins have agreed to a 10 year contract: http://wcco.com/sports/twins/joe.mauer.minnesota.2.1462891.html

Until it's confirmed, it's just speculation, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's true. I've always had a feeling that Mauer would work something out with the Twins.

Anyways, one big free agent off the board, one less non-signing for all of us to whine about next year if (when?) Andy doesn't act.

Swinging the bat in the 2 hole behind a guy that wants to run makes you give up a lot of swings either taking or trying to protect the runner by hitting behind him.

Coming up to bat with runners in scoring position is a whole different ball game, then you're just trying to hit the ball hard and DP's come with the territory of being an RBI producer.
I just think Tejada is better in a run producing role. The guy did a very good job batting out of position at 2 in the order.

When you talk about moves the O's could make that would improve the team, there's one still out there. Johnny Damon is still unsigned. He'd really improve the O's consistancy at the DH spot. There's still teams seaching for a LF with power. Scott may bring the O's something in a trade.

Roberts, Damon, Markakis, Tejada, Jones, Weiters, Atkins, Riemold, Izturis wouldn't be a bad lineup. If Scott could bring a decent middle releiver or a B/u catcher that can hit you might have a move that would make sense.

MountainFan,

You mean mine and Gils moves would have them competing for 3rd?

That's awesome! You know why? Because it.....

Means they'd be winning baseball games.

Means they wouldn't be in last place.

Means they would break their consecutive losing streak.

Means they wouldn't have a 2nd half collapse.

Means they'd have a respectable team?

Means they wouldn't be the laughing stock of the AL.

Means the fans would be getting more for their money.

Means the 'kids' would be developing without having all the pressure.

And,

Means 2011 would truly be something to look forward to.

Hey Gil,

Validation!

By the way MountainFan,

Damon would be great. If anything, the guy's a winner. The young players could use being around a guy who's been there.

Problem is........ PA and AM would never pony up. Plus, somehow, someway, he'd be blocking one of our hall of fame prospects.

Scott can easily put up numbers of Damon last year in that small park. In fact Scotts numbers were similar to Damons last year with over 100 less at bats. I'd much rather see Pie (Speed) or Scott (power) hitting in the DH spot than Damon who is neither a good fielder or fast or a power hitter. Doesn't make sense at all for this team which is why we won't see him. It has nothing to do with dollars, but with not needing him. The Yankees could afford him and din't want him. The guy is 8 years older than Scott. I woiuldn't trade him straight up fpr Scott or Pie so why would we sign him? Because he's a winner? No, he played on some teams that won. So did Millar when we bought him here. Winning doesn't travel with players folks.

Bill -

I'd take Damon's .360ish OBP in the #2 spot over any current possibility.

Heck, even in a run production spot in the lineup, I'd take Damon over Scott's one or two months of production and four months of ineptitude.

Also, the Yanks wanted Damon, they just didn't want to pay him the $10M+ per year that Boras was asking for. New York offered 2/$14 and then 1/$6, but Damon/Boras turned those both down.

One more thing: Scott's 32. Damon's 36.

not brooks,
not to nitpick but we are both a little off. Scott is currently 31. I'd call Damon an old 36. No more arm. I think even the real Brooks could hit 15 dingers in that stadium with that lineup last year.
I guess it's all a moot point as he's not coming here. I would bet If I were so inclined that Scotts numbers will be better than Damons this year in virtually all categories. I think Luke will work on more consistency and I just think Damon is on the downside.

not brooks,
One final note on Damon. I think it would be sort of like bringing Sosa here and others who's best years were behind them. No excitement for me in seeing Damon. I just think I'd much rather see if Pie can further progress and Scott just seems like a real likeable team player who if he can just cut down on the long slumps is quite a good hitter.
Plus Scott plays pretty decent defence whenever I've seen him. Damon's just not a good fit for this roster I think.

For a broken down player, his AB's (550+) and stats have been incredibly consistent.

He's a good attitude guy who's a proven winner. The young guys could use having that kind of experience around. The club would be better having him in the 2 hole, rather than having Scott batting 5th, 6th or lower. They'd simply score more runs... which is a huge need for this club.

He's nothing like Sosa! That's an insult to Damon!

not brooks
You greatly exaggerate when you say, "Scott's one or two months of production and four months of ineptitude."
Scott had a good April, a great May, so so in June, awful in July and August and a good September with a 512 slg percentage and an 824 ops.

The funniest thing about the kool aid drinkers is that they think that there is no one available thats an IMPROVEMENT for a team that lost 98 games

Anytime someone mentions a free agent that the Os ignored, the koolaiders claim that they wouldnt really help anyway. Really ? It wouldnt be an improvement over a last place team that was 40 games out of first place?

How can you possibly even try to reason with someone who "thinks" like that ?

None of the alternatives mentioned at thrid would be anywhere near a permanent fix. I really believe based upon his numbers on the road and his horrible season last year that Atkins will be a disaster and is not the answer at first this year or in the future. LaRouche would have beena better option and at least would have beena ligitimate number 4 hitter. Tejada is ok as a stop gap 3rd baseman

IMROVEMENTS on young teams come from more experience, not from sitting them on the bench while an old one dimensional player (Damon) comes to take 500 at bats away. We are supposed to sit Pie and Scott in favor of Damon? That makes no sense for development nor to win games I think.
And this stuff about him being a "winner" is just blowing smoke. So by that rationale Brian Roberts is a loser? No, Damon has been on some very good teams while Roberts has been on bad teams. Can't you get that? If Damon had been here the past ten years, he would be "loser", not a "winner".

I'm excited about the O's, this season and every season. If given the choice between the Orioles and Ravens, I'd take the O's every time. Hell, half the Ravens fans are so drunk by half time they can't remember what happened in the game.

Hawk, That was one of the dumbest comments I've ever seen anyone make on a blog. And by the way, it was so Oriole fan like. You've likely never recovered from the beatings you took in grade school.

freeman -

Alright, so three months of production and three months of ineptitude. Either way, a young team like the O's can't afford to have an automatic out in their lineup for two or three months out of the season.

If Scott was 26 or 27, I wouldn't care as much about his inconsistency because he might still have time to figure things out. But he's 32. He is what he is and he's not going to change.

Bill - Who would you like to see batting second?

Not Brooks,

I posted about this some time back. Scott is very streaky and needs to be managed as such by Trembley. A hitter like Scott can kill you for six weeks if you leave him in the lineup in the hope that he will swing his way out of the slump.

With Scott, once he takes and 0 for 10 or 12 he needs to sit awhile.

My thoughts exactly, Gil.

Scott needs to be a part timer. He has absolutely no business in the every day starting lineup.

When the O's are facing a tough lefty or any pitcher with good breaking stuff, Scott should be on the bench, without question.

That's why the O's should have made a play for Ryan Garko. Sure, Garko's not a long term solution in the starting lineup by any means, but, since he mashes lefties, he could have been a nice bench/1B/DH piece for years to come.

I was going to post something positive but really,most of you guys are only interested in the negative. Have at it. I'm going to enjoy following the youngsters who are in their first, full season.

Gee Tom,

You're a rebel..... A rebel who enjoys watching losing baseball, but a rebel nonetheless!

not brooks
You started off by saying Scott had one or two good months and now you're up to three. Keep going because you're still off the mark. He had 4 average to good months and 2 when he went missing in action, July and August. In fact, in July he was good for the first half and awful in the 2nd. So it's 4 and a half good and 1 and a half bad. For the record, Markakis had 4 good months and 2 bad. Sorry, but those are the facts.

not brooks
For the record, Scott hit left handers very well last year with a 264 avg, a 528 slg percentage and an 840 ops.

freeman -

Aside from the seven RBI game in Seattle, Scott was a joke from July 1 to the end of the season.

Over that span, he hit .227 with a .309 OBP, a .430 SLG%, 11 home runs and 38 rbi in 71 games.

That's horrible. I'm sure you'll find a way to spin it for good, but I'm not interested.

At the end of the day, you're happy with an inconsistent DH who has no chance of getting better, and I'm not.

not brooks
I haven't expressed an opinion about Scott. I merely responded to your inaccurate take on his numbers. Sorry if that offends.
By the way, did you know that Jason Bay went missing in action for two solid months in June and July last year. Does that make him too inconsistent.
As far as Scott hitting 11 Hrs and 38 rbi's in his last 71 games, that prorates to 25 HRs and 87 rbi's over 162 games. That's pretty productive for a guy who hit just 227 over that span.

I am still hoping the O's will bring someone else in for the DH role. Luke is way too inconsistent for this team. Damon or Delgado would top my list, but if they decide to not trade Luke, I would like to see Garko or Dye so when Luke goes through one of his ice cold streaks, we have someone to put in the DH role other than Wiggy.

Birland Todd,

I agree, and by the way, how did we still end up with Wiggenton going into Spring Training? He must be holding 8" X 10" Glossies on Macphail.

freeman -

Unfortunately for your projection, Scott has never played 162 games. Mostly because... he's too inconsistent!

Why don't we look at career splits? A larger sample size is always better, right?

April: .236/.337/.380, 303 PA
May: 290/.359/.608, 198 PA
June: .282/.365/.556, 266 PA
July: .245/.326/.482, 276 PA
August: .311/.409/.512, 391 PA
Sept/Oct: .227/.299/.475, 371 PA

Three good months, three bad months. I'm just guesstimating here, but April/July/Sept/Oct line looks to be about .235/.320/.450 while the May/June/August line looks to be about .290/.375/.560. Maybe a playoff caliber lineup could absorb those three months of crap, but the O's can't.

And why are we talking about Jason Bay? This is a guy who's averaged 31 home runs and an .892 OPS over the past five seasons. Are you sure you want to compare Scott to Bay?

PS - Bay does have a history of struggling in June/July. For his career, those are the only two months that his SLG% is under .500. And his .254 batting average in June is his worth month by far.

Todd -

Garko signed with the Mariners yesterday.

Too bad, because he would have been a perfect fit in a 1B/DH/PH bench role for this team. And he would have been a decent insurance policy just in case Atkins doesn't rebound.

brooks- so by your calculations, Scott should be traded for a kings ransom to some sucker team by the end of July? buy low and SELL HIGH!

not brooks
Slugging % and ops are far better indicators of a hitters value than is BA. Scott's career 245/326/482 numbers in July are good, not bad. I think you know that which makes me wonder why you'd say differently.

Not Brooks
Pie would look good in the 2 spot for me.
We should/will rotate the 3 regular outfielders with Scott and Pie including DH. 4 spots for 5 guys all with pretty good skills in different areas.
The outfield and DH are actually quite a strength right now, hence the lack of need and the reason we won't be adding anyone like Damon, etc.

1. New York Yankees $201,449,289 $7,748,050
2. New York Mets $135,773,988 $4,849,071
3. Chicago Cubs $135,050,000 $5,402,000
4. Boston Red Sox $122,696,000 $4,089,867
5. Detroit Tigers $115,085,145 $4,110,184
6. Los Angeles Angels $113,709,000 $4,061,036
7. Philadelphia Phillies $113,004,048 $4,185,335
8. Houston Astros $102,996,415 $3,814,682
9. Los Angeles Dodgers $100,458,101 $4,018,324
10. Seattle Mariners $98,904,167 $3,532,292
11. Atlanta Braves $96,726,167 $3,335,385
12. Chicago White Sox $96,068,500 $3,694,942
13. St. Louis Cardinals $88,528,411 $3,278,830
14. San Francisco Giants $82,161,450 $3,043,017
15. Cleveland Indians $81,625,567 $3,023,169
16. Toronto Blue Jays $80,993,657 $2,892,631
17. Milwaukee Brewers $79,857,502 $3,194,300
18. Colorado Rockies $75,201,000 $2,785,222
19. Arizona Diamondbacks $73,571,667 $2,724,877
20. Cincinnati Reds $70,968,500 $2,957,021
21. Kansas City Royals $70,908,333 $2,727,244
22. Texas Rangers $68,646,023 $2,367,104

The following teams outspent the O's last year

We finished at 23rd barely passing Minnesota (we wont spend MN this yr)

22 teams outspent the O'S last yr. It looks like 25 teams will outspend us this yr with MN and Oak passing us in the payroll standings (and the real standings as per usual)

WE always hear the apologists crying about how we cant spend with the skanks and Sux but we cant outspend the A's Royals and Twins ?!?!?!?!

If MN and Oak pass us as expected, THE ORIOLES WILL HAVE THE LOWEST PAYROLL IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE

great post jisfla!!!

could you continue to post the same list hourly?

Also, while you're at it, why not post the team rosters and associated salaries so we can see who's making all the money on those teams. That might add some perspective.

Looking forward to it!!!!!!!

Thanks.

Sorry, wayne and gil(and others) I couldn't post the past few days because MacPhail had me on a scouting mission to the Australian League looking for prospects.

gil, I agree, I would have liked them to have signed LaRoche, pushed for it many times. He's no Texeira, but would have been a solid run producer. His swing is made for the RF wall at OPACY.

I'm not as sold on Kouzamanoff. Yeah, he hit 18 HRs, including nine at the cavernous Petco, but I couldn't get by his anemic OBP. I mean, 27 BB and 106 K? A 302 OBP last year and 308 for the career? I beleive Tejada can match that easily. Even with his 19 BB for Houston last year, Miggy still had a 340 OBP. For a one year rental, the Orioles could have done worse.

Garko? Baseball prospectus predicted two years ago that Garko was as good as he was going to get and nothing we've seen since has changed. Atkins is much more of a gamble, but his upside could be higher. That's the only reason Wigginton and Aubrey are still around, they need someone to play first in case we find that Atkins is done.

Figgins was intriguing. He's another I would not have minded them getting, but I think were looking long term and did want to block Bell or Waring. Borderline point, I know, but that's what it seems.

All y'all keep harping on payroll. The Orioles have had large payrolls, 2003 for example. They have hired many veteran players in the past few years that command a higher salary.

Now, the Orioles are a youth oriented team, and those guys have yet to make the big bucks and I would imagine most are under the team's control for the next several years. Even those with ML contracts are not making tons of money(everything being relative) so the Orioles should have the money and flexibility to make big moves in the next two years.

My guess is the management wants to see some of the youngins in action next year to see if they can be as good as advertised and also to give other teams a look, in case trades could be worked out. Remember, though, these guys are still quite young and their true potential won't be known for a couple of years. Young players often are inconsistent, even the good ones, so once again, I have to preach patience, as much as it hurts. At least we will have hungry young players out there, instead of old retreads. That's what you guys have to focus on.

Jim66,

U are glad that the Os bypass elite FA'a in lieu of saving money on payroll ? Nothing gets me more excited than a retread batting clean up

I know its better to toil in ignorance than explain how teams like HOu and Sea spend 30- 40 million more per yr on players tahn we do while we rack up losing season afrer losing season

Oh we can compete with Bos and NYY blah blah blah

It a little harder to explain when we cant keep up with CIn and KC -LMAO

The Os have a very good chance of having the lowest payroll in the AL, while finishing in the top 3 in profits and DimJim thinks that great.

U apologists are a peculiar lot

jeez, all i asked was that you post that list with some detail.
Might be tough to beat FLA for lowest payroll, but I'm all about giving it a fair shot.

Are you with me fellow Apologists?

Does anyone know what's the story with Delgado? He was holding an open practice and the O's went to see him, but either he's not looking good psychically or a lot of teams are playing chicken in order to sign him on the cheap.

I don't see any guys like last year who will come up in a month or two and make an impact. I know Bell is the big name, but it sounds like they want him in the minors for a full year and see what position he will most likely play at the next level and to be monitored by the origination since he didn't come over till late in the season from LA so I don't think signing guys like Delgado, Dye or Blalock will block anyone. I sound like a broken record, but there isn't a hell of a lot of insurance if Atkins doesn't rebound or if Luke plays like he did in the 2nd half.

I have no clue what Blalock or Dye would cost, but I would be willing to bet it wouldn't be as much as what Wiggy makes. I am assuming Delgado would be more in the range of the contract Miggy signed, but with incentives so we aren't talking about breaking the bank or locking up guys long term, but just getting guys in here to make everyone competitive and if the team falters, trade chips.

Like a lot of people, I thought Garko would've been a very nice player off the bench or to spell Atkins at 1B and Luke at DH, but he was signed with incentives for 1 mil by the M's so I am holding out hope that the O's realize that the combo of Luke and Wiggy wont cut it in the AL East. Luke is bitching about not playing the field and Wiggy says he was promised AB's in 2010 so I guess that's why he decided to do virtually nothing except swing at the 1st pitch last year. New season and we don't need guys that should just be happy to have a job in baseball because I doubt Wiggy would get a whole hell of a lot on the FA market this year and Luke is a part time player for any other team.

Florida plays in the NL