I think he'd be a GREAT choice!

I think he'd be a GREAT choice!

We need this. Goo-goo-eyed as we are about our young pitchers, let's not forget that we have exactly ONE starters who's ever put together even two years of MLB success. And there's almost no chance that four youngsters will all pan out. (Even if each of them is a 70 percent shot -- very optimistic -- the chance for all four is about 24 percent.) If two of them are solid season-long starters for us three years from now, we'll be very very fortunate. So amid all the talk about corner infielders who can hit in the middle of the order, let's remember that we desperately need starting pitchers for our 2011 or '12 fantasy team.

Not sure what to make of Millwood at this point in his career.

2009 was most definitely a mirage, as he's never going to post an ERA under 4.00 again. How does a guy post the lowest strikeout rate of his career AND one of his best hits per nine marks in the same season?

Also, Millwood has a 4.57 ERA over the past four seasons, along with two marks over 5.00 ('07 and '08). I'm going to go ahead and say that 2009's 3.67 mark was the outlier there.

Oh, and he turns 35 on Chrismas Eve.

Now that I've thought about it, I'll take Jon Garland. He's five years younger, he put up a 4.30 ERA in seven years in an AL hitters park, he won't cost as much in terms of money and he won't cost anything in terms of prospects.

His decling strike out rate, his raising LD% and his much lower then career BaBIP last season all point to a fluke year last year.

If the O's send over a warm body and take him for his salary ok, but they should not part with anyone that has any chance of being part of the future.

Can the O's get cheap? If not, that would not make sense unless you give a new contract.

This move does not excite me.

I'm OK with Millwood, as long as they bring Bedard back home too.

I think everyone is ignoring that his "fluke" year came in Texas, one of the hardest places to put up good pitching numbers.

Even if he pitches slightly worse next year, being in Baltimore (and being backed by what should end up being a better offensive lineup and defense), his numbers should be similar or slightly better.

Would certainly add the inning eating vet we are looking for. If we eat the contract maybe we can limit what we have to give up to get him. The Rangers are looking for a utility infielder so Wigginton as the centerpiece of our package would work for me.

He's a band-aid. Expensive one at 12 mill, also.

PLEASE take a shot at Harden, Bedard, or Sheets. Young guys w/ a discount due to injuries. So much upside.

Or why not throw all the young guys in there? After Guthrie, keep Matusz, Till, Bergesen in the mix. Arrieta should be up by midseason.

I'm the first to cry Angelos is cheap, but if you're going to spend, do it wisely.

We need another LEFTY in the rotation.
ERIK BEDARD should be that choice.
Millwood isn't even a free agent and would require a TRADE to acquire him.
I'm not willing to part with anyone we have now in order to facilitate that.
Bedard on the other hand,IS a free agent.. Millwood is just a stupid idea.

The move only makes sense if we are able to re-negotiate his contract for less money and more years. To give up prospects for an aging veteran doesn't make a lot of sense for a stop gap pitcher. He is not a true ace. He would be good enough to be a number 3 or 4 pitcher in the rotation. We still need to find a true number 1. If not, then I would even put Bergensen as the ace and let him grow. He is the real deal. He is an ace in the making.

1.Bergensen
2. Guthrie
3. Millwood
4. Matusz
5. Tillman

The only logic behind this signing is if they are going to let Bergensen be the number 1. Guthrie is by no means an ace. Matusz and Tillman still have a long way to go before they can be considered moving up in the rotation.

It wouldn't be a terrible trade. And it makes sense for Texas considering the amount of pitching talent they have. They would have to eat up some of that $12 million though.

With Texas' abundance of pitching talent and the O's logjam in the outfield, I could see this trade happening. And Pie might be the one sent packing.

There's no reason to think that Halladay would come to Bmore, but, before thinking about Millwood's 12 mil., why not at least inquire?

A huge inprovement ocer Woody or Arlo Guthrie~

but what do they want in return?

Anon asks why not throw all the young guys in there? Answer: Because one or two of them will almost certainly not be ready, so we'd be facing another hopelessly lost season and also very possibly ruining a young pitcher's future by forcing him to strain every game to perform above his level, or else shopping for a way overpriced veteran stopgap pitcher midway through the season. Don't throw anybody into anything! Wait until they're ready, and you won't have to throw them, they'll go in there on their own.

I think a guy like Millwood would be a great addition to the rotation. He's going into a contract year and would more than likely put up average to above-average numbers. Bringing in Millwood, a decent #1 starter and work horse, would move Guthrie to his natural #2 spot.

I don't buy that last year was a fluke year for Millwood. First of all, he pitched well against the AL East last year. Two years ago, Cliff Lee suddenly won the Cy Young Award and looked like a completely different pitcher. Some people thought that he was having an outlier type of season, but he's continued to put up one great performance after another. Who knows if Millwood could have found th3 groove that Lee found.

Anon asks why not throw all the young guys in there? Answer: Because one or two of them will almost certainly not be ready, so we'd be facing another hopelessly lost season and also very possibly ruining a young pitcher's future by forcing him to strain every game to perform above his level, or else shopping for a way overpriced veteran stopgap pitcher midway through the season. Don't throw anybody into anything! Wait until they're ready, and you won't have to throw them, they'll go in there on their own.

"I think everyone is ignoring that his 'fluke' year came in Texas, one of the hardest places to put up good pitching numbers."

Seriously? That's exactly why Millwood's 2009 was a fluke.

In his first three years with Texas, Millwood's number took the expected jump. Then he puts up one of the best seasons of his career and you're saying it's not necessarily a fluke?

Here are two HUGE reasons that it was:

Reason #1:

'06-'08 ERA: 4.88
2009 ERA: 3.67

Reason #2:

In 2009, Millwood posted a career low in K/9 along with his fifth lowest H/9 (8.8) in his 13 seasons. He allowed 10.7 H/9 in his first three years in Texas. How does a pitcher strike out fewer hitter per nine than he ever has in his career and still put up one of his best H/9 marks? Does that make any sense to you? (Refer to Jeff V's BaBIP argument for more info.)

"I don't buy that last year was a fluke year for Millwood. First of all, he pitched well against the AL East last year."

By "he pitched well against the AL East last year" do you mean "he pitched well against the Red Sox (1.45 ERA in 3 starts) and Blue Jays (2.45 ERA in 2 starts) and got pounded by the O's (9.00 ERA in 1 start) and Yankees (6.35 ERA in 2 starts)"?

I guess that's about right. But I would say that he was damn lucky that he didn't give up any home runs to the Red Sox (the only team he held homerless in more than 10 innings), as he walked 10 in 18.2 innings. And he was also damn lucky that most of the home runs he gave up to the Blue Jays were solo shots.

"Two years ago, Cliff Lee suddenly won the Cy Young Award and looked like a completely different pitcher. Some people thought that he was having an outlier type of season, but he's continued to put up one great performance after another.

2008 was, most certainly, an outlier season for Cliff Lee. His ERA that season was 2.54. Compare that to an 3.97 career mark and a 3.22 mark in 2009. Big difference = outlier.

Cliff Lee is a very good pitcher. I think it just took him a while to really figure things out. But regardless of that, 2008 still was, and will be, the huge outlier in his career.

I am okay with going after Millwood. He shouldn't cost that much in what players the O's will give up depending on how much salary we are also inheriting.

And there's nothing wrong with band-aids. It makes the up-and-comers earn their way to promotions rather than just getting there by default. Millwood is also a pitcher with past success. He should serve as a proper example for the young pitchers to see how one goes about their business.

Obviously, this shouldn't be THEE move of the offseason. Nor should it be viewed as a long-term investment although it could turn into a longer stint if he earns it.

Not all moves are long-term investments, and it doesn't have to be a long-term move to be a good one. For example, Rick Sutcliffe was a great mentor to Mike Mussina, Ben McDonald, Bob Milacki and Arthur Rhoades in 1992 plus Jamie Moyer (only 30 then) in 1993. (Fernando Valenzuela also pitched for the O's in 1993.)

Let's remember, Sutcliffe was 36 and 37 those two years, and the Orioles had two winning seasons those years under Johnny Oates.

As for Bedard, I don't get the fascination with him. He MIGHT pull a fast one and stay healthy for a change. Regardless, he is most likely to be a curmudgeon -- something a team trying to learn how to win doesn't need.

If we're not to pitch the young guys, what should we do? Stick Till, Matusz, and Bergesen in the bullpen? All competed well last year. Should they be sent back down?

This team is not a few pieces away from competing - that's the scenario you add a Millwood. He does nothing for building this franchise. He'd be gone as a FA in a year.

The people who post here crack me up!!! An ace isn't someone who has 20 career starts and 12 career wins. An ace is someone who has 5-7 seasons on 15+ wins. Until the Orioles have 2-3 pitchers with over 50-100 career wins that can win 12-16 games every year, they will be a joke.

The people who post here crack me up!!! An ace isn't someone who has 20 career starts and 12 career wins. An ace is someone who has 5-7 seasons on 15+ wins. Until the Orioles have 2-3 pitchers with over 50-100 career wins that can win 12-16 games every year, they will be a joke.

My best guess is that Bergy, Tillman and Matusz, would have to F up real bad to not make the 2010 starting rotation, but no one else is a lock so if you can add Millwood and not give up a whole lot for him than great, but I am not sold on Guthrie being an Oriole in 2010 so just because they make a run at Millwood in my opinion, doesn't mean they wont go after a guy like Jon Garland since Millwood would be here for 1 year only and buy another year for the prospects unless he is lights out and wants to stay which would be a great problem to have.

Pete, are you hearing anything about the pen? The Birds need to seriously add some guys because half the guys we have, don't belong in the majors and the other half are all question marks.

"An ace is someone who has 5-7 seasons on 15+ wins. Until the Orioles have 2-3 pitchers with over 50-100 career wins that can win 12-16 games every year, they will be a joke."

According to your logic, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, Brandon Webb, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson and Jon Lester aren't aces.

According to your logic, if Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman each win 15 games next year and the O's win 85, they'll still be a joke.

Good one.

I bet we could get Bedard or someone else for less than 12 Mil. Not averse to Millwood, I have long advocated for an established starter to help mentor the younglings.

First of all, we need a Millwood to eat innings. Bergy, Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta aren't ready to throw 200-220 innings this year. Not to mention what do we do if someone gets hurt.

Second of all Millwood is going to come DIRT cheap from the Rangers. The Rangers had to take a $15 million line of credit from major league baseball as an advance on their future revenue sharing money last year just to meet their financial obligations. They HAVE to unload Millwood's contract.

Micah -

If the Rangers can't afford to pay a portion of Millwood's contract, then what's the point?

If you want an innings eater and you're willing to pay him $12M, why not just spend $8 or $10M on Jon Garland?

Not Brooks you are correct. Unless they flat out give him up for free its no deal. Garland is a much better choice.

Oh, and I'm not sure about you guys, but in my book, an "innings eater" is a guy who tosses 200+ innings year in and year out.

Millwood has done that once in the past six seasons (215 in '06). He got close two other times (192 in '05; 198.2 in '09), but, as Frank Robinson said, "close don't count in baseball. Close only counts in horseshoes and grenades."

Frank- Brad Bergesen is by no means an ace. Heard a great comparison b/w him and Andy Sonnanstine. Accuracy/Finesse guy that is great for a while, then it catches up to him and Whammo... back in the minors.

Im not holding my breathe on BB. If he's great, great. If not, trying to not get my hopes up for the same reason people shouldn't get their hopes down on Matusz and Tillman. Not a large enough body of work to pass judgement.

Millwood will eat innings, if his ERA is sub 4.50, great. Need a guy who doesn't melt down and get chased in the 3rd inning.

Why all the love for getting that sour puss Bedard back here. He is a punk with a way over inflated ego who can't stay healthy and will be looking into the dugout every 6th inning, hoping to be pulled out because he is exhausted. He might be the biggest "richard head" in the league and I don't think he would be a great influence around the youngsters trying to find their way on this team...

"[Bedard] might be the biggest "richard head" in the league and I don't think he would be a great influence around the youngsters trying to find their way on this team...

Never understood where the "Bedard is a jackass" thing came from.

Pete: What were your encounters like with Bedard?

Also, in his final three seasons in Baltimore, Bedard averaged a little over 6 innings per start. How is that any different from the rest of the league?

I can understand the arguments about Bedard's durability, which is close to nil at this point, but the personal shots at his attitude and desire to win have always baffled me.

Remember the ankle injury a few years back that Bedard milked for weeks, costing him a bunch of starts? He hurt it out drinking in Canton with another moron, sir Sydney Ponson. My friend was the bartender. Don't believe all the spin that comes out of the warehouse. I've got more if you want. Trust me, the guy is a schmuck, no offense Pete...

sounds like they maybe trying to sell millwood at a high but get whatever they can for him and dump his salary. Prob someone like Dave Johnson's kid in return.

Brooks... nothing about Ubaldo Jimenez says "ace" to me.
31-28 3.81? Really? Greinke wasn't an ace til he got his act together this year. Lincecum is just a freak. Not yet on Lester and Johnson. Bad argument to someone's generalization. Not even good comparisons. Sounds like "Mike" was trying to calm people from annointing Bergeson as the next Roy Halladay. After all, the guy has 20 starts. Give him a year or two or five before we make him Jim Palmer.

Bergy should be considered nothing more than a pleasant surprise. He was not highly touted coming up, anything positve from him is great... I'll take 14 wins and a 3.80 ERA.

Shamrock -

Several scouts have said that Jimenez has some of the best stuff in the game. He's also got the top average fastball in MLB. And what do career stats have to do with current status? Jimenez posted a 3.47 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, 198 K's and a 2.33 K/BB ratio in 218 innings in 2009. And he put up those numbers in the best hitters park in the game. 80% of MLB teams would love to have him at the front of their rotation. Oh, and he'll be just 26 in January.

Moving on:

Jon Lester: 3.31 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 377 K's, 2.90 K/BB in 413.2 innings over the past two years. Not to mention 31 wins in that time. At the end of May 2009, his ERA was 5.35 - the ultimate rough start. From June 6 through the end of the season, he put up a 2.35 ERA in 21 starts with 151 K's in 138 innings. Also 26 in January. Also came back from cancer. An ace in every sense of the word.

Josh Johnson: His resume isn't as impressive as Lester's, but if you give me a 25-year-old and he tosses 200+ innings while posting a 3.23 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, a 3.29 K/BB ratio, I'll call him an ace.

That said, I'm not sure how I put up a bad argument. Especially when I was arguing against a stupid generalization. Honestly, I could have just said, "Wow, that was stupid", and my post would have been more insightful than his.

Finally, on Bergesen: I never compared him to anyone. I just made a comment about the guy's status if he wins 15 games in 2010. And here, I will say something: if Bergesen, Tillman and Matusz each win 15 games and, more importantly, post sub-4.00 ERAs along with solid peripherals (WHIP, K/BB, etc.), I'll have no problem dubbing them Baltimore's Big Three.

I know you weren't calling BB an ace... you picked several players with good stats thru 1-4 years and called them aces. The other guy was simply saying come up with a track record over a few years.

John Lester isn't even the best starter on his team. Beckett is the ace, he has the talent, the presence and image. The go-to guy that scares other teams and seen as the leader of the staff... who do you give the ball to in game 7? Beckett or Lester?

That is a big part of it too... having the talent to match the presence. Not every team has one... Santana, Sabathia, Beckett, Halladay, Lincecum... those guys are aces. Not Ubaldo Jimenez and his Sabermetrics... teams don't roll into town and say, oh crap, that guy has a 5.1 k/BB, park adjusted. They say, its going to be a long night, CC is pitching.

Not saying they aren't the best pitchers on their staffs or that they won't be good, but give them a few years to build a name for themselves. Save the stats for fantasy baseball.

"John Lester isn't even the best starter on his team. Beckett is the ace, he has the talent, the presence and image."

So a team can't have two aces? What about Tom Glavine and John Smoltz on those 90's Atlanta teams? Were they chopped liver because Greg Maddux was the best?

Either way, I'll take talent over "presence" any day. What did "presence" do for David Wells, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina and Roger Clemens in the 2003 World Series? And who was Josh Beckett before that World Series? What "presence" did he have? And what did Beckett's "presence" get him in the '08 and '09 playoffs? 10 earned runs in 9.1 innings against Tampa in the '08 ALCS? What "presence" did Matt Garza have when he shut down the Sox in his two ALCS wins?

teams don't roll into town and say, oh crap, that guy has a 5.1 k/BB, park adjusted.

Go check out archived articles from Jimenez games at the Rockies MLB.com website. You can bet that teams that he just shut down said "man, that guy has amazing stuff".

Save the stats for fantasy baseball.

What's that supposed to mean? Are you seriously going to take your guys with "presence" and "image" over the guys with the better numbers?

Come on, man. Do a google news search on any of the guys I mentioned and you'll find articles with quotes from players, managers, and all other sorts of personnel calling those guys some of the best young aces in the game.

Im talking about aces... you only get one... an Ace equals 1, thus you get one. If there were two, they would be called Deuces.

Maddux was the ace in atlanta, Smoltz, while great, piled up a lot of losses, got hurt and became a closer. Glavine was Maddux's trusty sidekick and compliment.

your talking about an article on a teams website??? guess you aren't one of the kooks on this site that have a fit over what the O's website and MASN say to promote players and the team. whats the website supposed to say, Ubaldo's 12 losses really suck?

What presence does Wells or Mussina have? Pettitte was 3-1 2003 playoffs and was pretty decent this year winning a WS. He's a guy that gets by on more than talent...

Ace is more of an image term than statistical...

Sorry bud, I'll take results over "image". And I've got four aces in all my decks of cards.

"your talking about an article on a teams website??? guess you aren't one of the kooks on this site that have a fit over what the O's website and MASN say to promote players and the team."

Yes, I'm talking about articles on the team website, only because that's the only place you'll find in depth articles about every Jimenez start. And it's not like the writer is making stuff up. I'm talking about direct quotes from hitters. Things like "That guy has some of the best stuff I've ever seen".

""What presence does Wells or Mussina have?""

Wells has 10 playoff wins to go with a 3.17 postseason ERA.

Mussina was the ace of the O's for nine years and one of the best pitchers in the AL over the course of his career. How is that not "presence"?

Pettitte has your "presence" as well, as does Clemens, and that staff of "aces" was beaten by a couple of upstarts.