Winter Meetings: Oriole updates
Just trying to get up to speed this morning in Indianapolis while wondering if I'm the only one who knows that the shortest distance between two points when it's first and goal from the 1 is a straight line. I'm still marveling at how hard the Ravens had to work to lose last night's game in Green Bay, but I've got smaller fish to fry here at the Winter Meetings.
Right now, I'm waiting to see if the Orioles can put together a trade with the Texas Rangers for pitcher Kevin Millwood, who would fit my description of the kind of veteran pitcher who would help stabilize the young Orioles rotation. I'm going to speculate -- and this is only based on baseball logic and the overall economic situation -- that if the Orioles get a deal done, they'll give up one of their next-level pitching prospects and assume about three quarters of his $12 million guarantee for next season.
If I had to guess, the chances of Andy MacPhail completing a trade for Millwood here is probably below 50 percent, but when you're talking about deals for veteran players, 30 or 40 percent would be a pretty good probability.






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Comments
What do you mean by "next level pitching prospects"?
I'm going to go ahead and assume that Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta are the top level and the "next level" starts with Brandon Erbe, Troy Patton, Zach Britton and Matt Hobgood (only because of his draft status).
I'd rather see someone like Steve Johnson or Ryan Berry go. Especially if the O's are going to have to pay Millwood $9-10M.
Posted by: not brooks | December 8, 2009 11:10 AM
Why give up a prospect for a 1 yr rental?
Posted by: Cereal Blogger | December 8, 2009 11:20 AM
I would say that what the Orioles have know don't win games. We need pitchers to eat up innings and win games. The stands are getting empty and lots of fans are getting tired of seeing a losing product every year.
If one pitcher could help the orioles not lose 90 to 100 games then I think it's worth going after millwood............
Posted by: john | December 8, 2009 11:41 AM
I'd rather see them use that money for Chapman and then sign Bedard or Harden. That would allow flexibility to put forth a package for A-Gon or Miggy using one of the young arms as a centerpiece.
Posted by: DB | December 8, 2009 11:43 AM
$9 million is no where near enough money for Chapman, let alone enough for Chapman and Bedard or Harden.
Also A-gon and Miggy aren't going anywhere.
Posted by: Micah | December 8, 2009 12:22 PM
Haven't the O's learned about over-the-hill pitchers?
Why Millwood???? Why???????????
How many dingers did he give up last year? 26 BIG ones in less than 200 innings. That averages to more than one a game. Might as well try to bring back D. Cabrera if getting a pitcher who gives up homers is a priority.
Unbelievable.....we chart a course to develop talent and we give it away for mediocrity.
Posted by: Jerryg | December 8, 2009 12:31 PM
Kevin Millwood??? I dont know about that. My why make an offer to Randy wolf. I know we dont have a chance with Lacey but why not invest the money to bring him in?
Posted by: Jerome Cone | December 8, 2009 12:51 PM
Millwood. Andy you're killing me. His OPS against just zig zags up for the past 10 years. That era last year was his last, lucky hurrah. He projects to a 800+ ops against this year. Way below average pitcher now. Give him 9MM? That's a mike flanagan move.
Posted by: saj | December 8, 2009 12:55 PM
I'm not liking this Milwood trade the more that I see his past numbers. That's a lot of money to pay for a guy who before last year posted above 4.50 ERA and who gives up the HR with regularity. We already have Guthrie. We don't need that. I'm not sure why they're not taking a look at Garland. He eats innings and if it wasn't for the DBacks offense he would have won more games. I bet McPhail will start looking for more Cubs rejects. I'm sick of this guy like I'm sick of Harbaugh.
Posted by: Devin | December 8, 2009 2:05 PM
I think this would be a good deal for the O's. Camden Yards is a hitter's park, but it is nothing like the "arena baseball" field Texas plays on. I would think that the change in venue is worth at least a quarter-run off of his ERA. We also have better defense than Texas. He should be able to produce similar or slightly better numbers despite the transfer to the AL East.
Posted by: Mike H. | December 8, 2009 2:25 PM
Why aren't we doing everything we possibly can to talk the Tigers into trading Edwin Jackson to us? He's only 26 and was an All-Star last year.
Posted by: Bird Fan in FL | December 8, 2009 2:26 PM
"Why aren't we doing everything we possibly can to talk the Tigers into trading Edwin Jackson to us? He's only 26 and was an All-Star last year."
Jackson also put up a 5.07 ERA after the All Star Break last year.
His career ERA is 4.66 and, even in his best season, his BB/9 rate was almost 3.0 and his K/9 rate was south of 7.0.
Those numbers are not good.
Posted by: not brooks | December 8, 2009 2:36 PM
I agree with saj. Why don't the Orioles sign Jon Garland instead of going after Kevin Millwood? He's put up better numbers, won't cost the O's any current players and it five years younger.
Posted by: Andrew | December 8, 2009 3:32 PM
Andrew, I honestly believe that the O's getting Millwood, wouldn't stop them from signing another pitcher. The next crop of pitchers aren't going to make it to OPACY in 2010. They have to go slow with Patton because of the serious injury he's overcoming and I still don't see Guthrie locked in as a starter next year. One pitcher isn't enough so if it's getting a guy like Millwood to buy another year and at least give the O's some quality starts so the pen wont collapse by July, great, but I don't think this has anything to do with taking them out of the running for Bedard, Garland or any other vet. They ran out of pitching last year when there was over 30 guys in spring training so I don't think they want déjà vu.
Posted by: Birdland Todd | December 9, 2009 2:08 AM
Agree that get mite get an additional pitcher besides Millwood.Id like to see a Millwood deal expand to include Chris Davis. They have Smoak and another guy in the minors who plays first, and Michael Young at third.Davis is expendable.
The O's should get a first baseman w/upside, not some fading vet like Delgado or Johnson. Snyder won't have enough power.
Posted by: mikezpen | December 9, 2009 7:30 AM