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December 22, 2009

Ravens: Must win? Not exactly

If the Ravens can sweep the home-and-home series against the Steelers with a victory at Heinz Field on Sunday, they'll all but lock up a playoff berth, but the notion that it is a must-win situation is just not accurate...unless you're talking about the Steelers.

The Ravens need to win for a lot of reasons, but they would not be eliminated from playoff consideration if Ben Roethlisberger jacks up another huge game like he did on the way to last Sunday's miraculous victory over the Green Bay Packers.

The only other 8-6 team in the AFC wild card hunt is the Broncos, who also face a tough road game (Philadelphia) this weekend. There are six teams with 7-7 records, and only two of them -- the Dolphins and Texans -- will be playing each other, so there are too many scenarios to reasonably contemplate.

Of course, the best way to reduce the variables is to win out. Both the Ravens and Broncos make the playoffs if they win their final two regular season games. But both are listed by the oddsmakers as underdogs this week.

It's been almost surreal the way the Ravens' wild card competitors have been falling by the wayside over the past three weeks, and that could continue in Week 16. Only two of the 7-7 teams (in addition to the Steelers) are posted as favorites. Is that parity or parody?

Posted by Peter Schmuck at 7:38 PM | | Comments (15)
Categories: Just football
        

Comments

sell the team peter!

Do you ever sleep, Schmuck?

Every game in the NFL is a must win--it's the nature of the game.

I hope Harbaugh understands this fact--I also believe that Billick doped out the season and had calculated losses. In these games, he stuck to the 3 and out game plan, with hopes for a couple of field goal drives in between. In fact, that seemed to be the plan in the 2003 playoff loss to the Titans.

If the Ravens do not beat the Steelers on Sunday, they have no business in the playoffs. The Steelers are a terrible team. They have lost to the Browns, Chiefs, Bears and Raiders. The Ravens have not lost to a bad team this season. We have to stop thinking of the Steelers as the Superbowl Champs. They are we we think they are. They are a bad team. And the Ravens need to approach the game that way. They need to administer a beatdown on the Steelers as they have on other bad teams likes Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, and Kansas City.

LOL @ Purple Koolaid, you do realize that the Ravens are just ONE game ahead of the terrible Steelers right? I also hope you realize that you BARELY beat the Steelers IN BMORE the last time we played. OK, just checking

LOL is absolutely right--the Ravens had a Golden opportunity with Dennis Dixon at the controls, and they made the MAIN mistakes they have made all year. They overshot on blitzes, giving Dixon the chance to step up and BURN the defense, and they brought too many people into the box, exposing their corners, while the safeties either joined the blitz or did not give support to the corners.

Parody indeed ... but I'd rather see that than the ridiculous state baseball has gotten itself into, with the Yankee (and Red Sox) hegemony.

Parity--an equal distribution

Parody--A satirical imitation

2009 Steelers: a PARODY of recent Super Bowl Steeler teams. Led by Mr. Parody himself, Hines Ward. Questioning his QB's fortitude in public? C'Mon Man!

For all practical purposes, the Ravens do need to win. If they can't beat the Steelers they don't deserve to be in the playoffs to begin with and would be one-and-done anyway.
For all practical purposes, the Ravens are in the playoffs already. If they win out, they get a ring, if they lose, they go home. I know that they can still possibly sneak in, even with a loss Sunday if everything breaks their way, but if you can't play with the big boys, you don't belong in the playoffs anyway. The playoffs have started, so lets see how far they get.

Rather than worrying what the Ravens would need if they lose to the Steelers -- and they cannot clinch with a loss by the way -- why not look at what would be needed to clinch should they win.

Scenarios One and Two:
BAL > PIT
NE > JAX
PHI > DEN or IND > NYJ

Scenario Three:
BAL > PIT
IND > NYJ
PHI > DEN
HOU > MIA

Weirdo Scenarios Four and Five:
BAL = PIT
IND > NYJ
NE > JAX
HOU = MIA
SD > TEN or SD = TEN

Obviously, I should have said if the Ravens win or tie.

Anyway, it is also more important for the Ravens to win out for who they would play in the playoffs. The Ravens would likely play CIN as the fifth seed. Although BAL has lost to CIN twice this year, I have more confidence in them avoiding a three-sweep this year against them than I did to PIT last year. In fact, I would rather play CIN than PIT in a one-game shootout this year despite how awful PIT has played at times.

As unlikely as it may seem, BAL has a chance at the fourth seed should CIN lose out, and even the third seed. Those slim chances start and end with winning this Sunday.

Right you are, Pete.

More than likely the Ravens get in at 9 -7. Whether they lose to the Steelers or the Raiders, the Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos (should Broncos lose again).

as to the 7 - 7 teams, only jax has as few conference losses as the ravens. The jets and miami are 1 back, and the texans, steelers, and titans are toast.

So if jax, jets, and miami each lose one more game( they each have two conference games remaining), ravens are in at 9 -7. If the broncos lose one more as well, ravens are a 5 seed at 9 - 7.

But i love the fact that the steelers pulled out the miracle win this past sunday, because now it sets up the hype at heinz field as a deciding game,
(which in fact it is not).

LOL must not pay attention to tie-breakers. It doesn't matter if the Ravens and Steelers split the season series at this point because even if they beat us, we hold the better division record and thus the tie-breaker belongs to the Ravens. Now, winning is the best way for the Ravens to take care of business but this game is not a must win with all the 7-7 teams playing tough opponents this week. I'm starting to think it is pretty likely that both the Ravens and Steelers are going to make the playoffs at 9-7.

AM is a sneaky guy. He never really gave a timetable on when the Orioles would contend. I think many people just figured we were on a 3-5 year plan but with the way these other divisional rivals are stockpiling all AM will do is keep the seat warm for the next guy. We do not know if he fixed the team because he is on paper a loser in the major leagues with the Orioles. All that other talk about him fixing the minor league teams and got us great prospects is moot because we are just the same as before he got here.

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About Peter Schmuck
Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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