Pete, I think this all hints at a larger issue. Americans today are too d**n impatient. Everyone wants Holliday because he represents an instant "fix" to absolutely nothing. Only time presents a fix to the "problem" the orioles face. That "problem", being youth. That said, I think Holliday could help the team, but I don't think anyone should be upset at Macphail for not getting Holliday. Although, that logic is completely foolproof - screw you Andy, for not signing someone on a $100 million deal to fill a position that we have 3 legitimate options for. I just don't understand it sometimes.

Pete, Pete, Pete

Surely nothing personal!

I'm just pushing the media (in my own way) to do the right thing. The NY press doesn't hold back on their teams. Why should the Baltimore media be any different?

It is great to see more comments from those 'tired' than ever before. It's drowning out the 'it was never about this year' crowd, and you're finally getting a real sense of how fans really feel.

It used to be that the same 4 or 5 posters would bully the truth-sayers, to the point where people would just go away (like they've gone away from visiting Oriole Park).

No more though! People are fed up and they want answers and WINS.

It's only about WINS Pete. No longer should it be about 'next year' before this year even begins.

Happy New Year (and it'll be much happier if the O's win 82 games).

Peace!

Oh no now you've done it Jeff. The loser posters will be all over you. Patience?....after 12 years we need patience? Yes of course we do.

Just to warn you Jeff....You now love losing, you don't realize Macphail won his 2 rings in the stone age and you probably work at the warehouse.... did I say you don't care if we "win now"?

And if Jason catches wind if your post he will accuse you of delivering newspapers for a living... or close your ears...he may call you a busboy....because real business people don't tolerate losing like you do......

Oh yeah, and it doesn't matter that we have two whole months to go before the offseason ends...we need to WIN NOW. We need to sign overpriced free agents for a position that we have good players for.

You don't really believe that Matusz Tillman Weiters Reimold Bergesen are real major leagers do you???? Oh no, that's even worse...now you believe the lies that Macfail has been spreading...your toast man

Jeff,
you also care nothing about WINS
All you have to do is read some others on here.
Don't you get it. It's about wins, wins , wins,

You must have patience because you enjoy following a team that loses. Fight that man!!! It's about WINNING NOW NO MORE LOSING.

Hope that helps...

Hahahaha, best comment ever ^

Happy New Years Pete! Thanks for all the great reporting and insight. As a long time fan of the O's, I don't want to get too excited about the upcoming season but things are definitely looking up. Here's to a prosperous, and hopefully more fun, Orioles season!

Wayne makes good observations in my opinion most of the time. Negative as they may be...

I see both sides of the argument, but to compare Baltimore to NYC is a joke. Have you ever heard the old Mike and the Mad Dog shows? They would analyze every pitch and decision made by the manager every single game. That doesn't happen anywhere else sans Boston. You can't expect the scrutiny to be the same, its just not realistic.

Pete,

Negative people are going to find fault in everything they see, so I wouldn't waste energy thinking about them.

I can only hope the jaded and hurt O's fans (myself included) can take extra satisfaction if and when this whole mess gets turned around.

Woops, sorry about that, my computer was freaking out. Although, i'm not sure that three posts mentioning your brilliance weren't warranted.

I've seen it posted before, but since it was brought up again, why does andymac get credit for players like reimold and bergesen? And wasn't bergesen out of nowhere in the first place, not rated to be much, meaning andymac got lucky with that one, assuming of course he wasn't a fluke? I'm not about being all negative or anything. It's just that I don't understand all the optimism. And aren't we only talking about holliday because he's the last free agent bat worth buying? Doesn't everyone think it may just be frustration pouring out from the fans? Personally, i think the Orioles are in for a very long season. So many players have to develop at the same time, that it just seems unreasonable. I only check the blogs once in a while, looking for updates or anything positive. I just never see it though. I want to be a bird fan. It's just real tough.

Good for you Wayne. You tend to hit nerves because you're spot on. Thanks

It also helps when there aren't many other Orioles entries posted here. Of course people are going to pile on. The comments would be misplaced in a Ravens game update or an entry that includes a fur hat.

Pete, I think Wayne just says what most people are thinking. I don't see that as being a bad thing.

It is a broken sport. Period.
We are screwed being in AL EAST.Period
We will never,ever compete on an extended period of time.
Enjoy the game for what it is. Root for these kids. But forget about returning to the glory days
We have as much chance of returning to glory as Ford has plans to reintroduce the Edsel.
Happy New Year anyway guys.
Life goes on. Every precious moment.

If the O's aren't offering a bid for Holliday's services, and apparently no other teams out there are (bidding), then which team is St Louis bidding against? Scott Boras has pulled the wool over the Cards eyes on this one. Eight years for something like 20 million per is a pretty steep price to pay when no one else seems willing to fork over the money.

My 2 cents:

Pete,
If you ask me (which no one is), Andy's very quick response to the Os-Holliday contract bid rumor may have been influenced by last year's Teixeira Hot Stove? True, they're completely different cases, and Holliday isn't a local kid, but sometimes teams let those rumors fly around a bit. Yes, MacPhail is an extremely experienced and shrewd manageger, but he's never headed the Os with its idiosyncratic fanbase before this run. So, was last year's Teixeira episode a test case for MacPhail, in terms of where the fanbase is at?

By allowing the Teixeira-Os rumors to circulate between the Winter Mtgs and his subsequent signing a months later, it generated such a buzz throughout Os Nation, that when he didn't sign, it sent a real shockwave of disappointment, and perhaps influenced some decisions later down the road? True, the Os actually did make an offer then; and, today there's no such thing on the table, but one can't help but wonder if he chose to refute erroneous rumors immediately because he couldn't see any net gain by such a thing as exampled by last offseason's fiasco.

Maybe it's just a style difference, but some teams like to allow rumors to stew because it's thought that they can sometimes generate some opportunities to gather information and/or leverage while avoiding tampering and negotiation issues. Maybe here MacPhail has made the calculation that none of that stuff is worth it when weighed against general fan disappointment?

Jay... I don't think Boras has pulled the wool over anyone's eyes. Teams know how he operates. Just like when he started crap with other unnamed teams when ARod became a FA, then ARod had him be the fall guy when it got ugly.

You are right, no one else is going after Holliday. He wants to stay in the NL and STL. Trying to get every dime he can from them.

Pablo,

A better compliment, you couldn't have given.....

Happy New Year to all! Be careful tonight as it's going to ice up quickly. be safe!

Recently uncovered Wayne footage!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Qdnka2J-yI

or Wayne in Italian...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i26hmBh0h0c

Happy New Year Pete!

Forget Holliday - just give me Jim Thome as our DH. He would be a great guy for Wieters, Reimhold, and Jones to look up to (you can even throw Roberts & Markakis in there as well.) The guy is still a force at the plate. This is the kind of veteran leadership we've been dying for (not guys like Sosa, Palmeiro, or Tejada)!

Hey Pete...

I think the problem is that the weather always sucks when I am off work, thus nothing to do, thus stuck on the coach, etc etc...

Merry New Year! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpqknwKbvDE

Pete - I greatly appreciate you and this blog. But I got a complaint - now don't get upset and don't get mad or hyper, I'm only trying to help! For whateveer reason you have multiple guys who over and over and over when they post - they/it does it posts the same thing - THREE times!! VERY VERY annoying!! IF they can't stop themselves and or help it - can't you be a little pro active and "clean up" their mess on YOUR blog?? Surely you can delete the "2 extras" if you were so inclined. It sure would make your blog a nicer place to visit!! Unless you want/need those 2 extra hits each time they do it to get your "bonus" for x amount of blog hits you had Boras put into your contract. Not trying to start any trouble but Roch doesn't have this problem on HIS blog!! Just sayin'!

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I do try to clean things up when I can, but I have to say, the volume of comments the past week or so has been so impressive that I haven't gotten all the way back to correct everything.

Happy New Year to all of the people who blog here...I wish you and your families good health and good fortune in 2010,

Especially to the old curmudgeons, jim66 and bob c., to Chris in Hawaii, to Jason C. in Florida, to Shamrock, to Bill Frederick, to Lucky Horseshoe, to Eddie in NYC, to Jeff, to Josh, to Rich, to djph, to Wane, to Not Brooks, Pablo, Daniel, Ted B, Frank Rizzo, Larry, Jeff D, and to everyone I may have missed because I am doing this out of memory and as Shamrock said I have a 30 second attention span.

God Bless all of you and see you on the other side. Oh, you too Pete!

Wayne, sorry I mispelled your name. Don't come out of the 5th dimension and get me tonight. It was an accident.

Happy New Year, Bud. Live long and prosper.

how about signing adam laroche?

I predicted weeks ago that Holliday would be wearing an O's uniform by New Years Eve, it just looks like I may have been a few days late! With only one other team in it and empty seats at the Yard to fill, MacPhail would be stupid not to go the extra mile.

Sorry, Pablo, wayne does not speak for the majority of people who care about the Orioles.

Some people just don't get it and wayne is one of them. I just can't take seriously his posts anymore. It's the same old same old, nothing the Orioles do is right, they are destined for 100 or more losses for the foreseeable future, yada yada yada. Frankly, it gets old.

I love how wayne says he wants the Baltimore media to push the team to "do the right thing." But like a true megalomaniac, wayne only considers what he wants the team to do as the "right thing." Sorry, wayne, my boy, you are not the baseball expert you think you are. You fail to see the improvements made, the excitement that can be generated by a young, hungry team, you only want to dwell on the past.

You refuse to see that while the Orioles might not win in 2010, it is a step in the right direction as the youngsters blend and learn OTJ. Almost certainly, guys like Tillman, Matusz, Wieters, et al will take their lumps in the upcoming season, all youngins do, but it is all part of the learning process. And after next season, with all the FAs supposedly coming on the market, the front office then can make its splash. But, who knows? Maybe we'll see Bell, Waring, Snyder show that they don't need to step outside the organization. Quite likely, the solutions to the Orioles' troubles are already on the roster.

wayne, you are certainly not the only fan tired of losing. The difference is, we "true believers", as you call us, can see that the light at the end of the tunnel is this club's bright future. You? Seems all you want to believe is that that light is the proverbial oncoming train.

Then there's patrick, who wants AM to go the extra mile, only that extra mile will cost millions of dollars to, like the best post on this current thread says, provide an instant fix to absolutely nothing. Just makes you wonder what some of these people are thinking.

Well, time to go back to William Powell and Myrna Loy. I would watch the Three Stooges marathon, but frankly, they remind me too much of some of the people who post here.

Like Bill says, hope this helps!!!!!

Merry New Year!

Have a happy and safe New Year, Pete

KEN,

You're like the first baby born in the new year. Look at your post. Right at midnight! Must have been a mad party at your place.

Try to stop with the name calling in 2010 Ken. I don't write on these much but I don't think it's cool. Even wayne doesn't resort to such.

I agree with wayne. he could be a tad more elegant at times, but he's passionate and quite frankly, i don't agree with you that he says the same thing all the time. I actually think he gives his point of view from different angles. I don't know, but it seems like fans have been patient enough, and guys like wayne and gil want the winning to begin now. Maybe all the young players you mention will develop at once, although that would be unusual in this game. But even if they do, there's nothing saying they'll pay them when they all come up for arbitration and contracts. That's the problem when building like this. And please don't use roberts and markakis as examples of them paying. The birds had no choice with both, or they'd be closer to last in payroll. They do have to field somewhat of a team afterall.
Now stop the name calling ken.

Happy New Year and to all a goodnight!

The answer to the Orioles woes and the rest of the leagues dismal ailments is not a single player on the "I got to get him list". The real issue is a legitimate salary cap that forces a team to pick and keep one or two top players and gives every team a chance to win it all. That is why Football is so successful...every team has a chance.....so who will make the playoffs next year..Yanks, Sox,Dodgers....get the picture?

Well, if you are reading this, you likely made it through the Big Eve in one piece and hopefully without even being arrested.

I would say Happy New Year to all, but why lie? If you didn't like 2009, just wait untul you see 2010.

And finally, for those of you all burnt out from not seeing Matt Holliday come to Baltimore, keep in mind that he has already come to Baltimore, only his name is not Matt Holliday, it is Nolan Reimold, and he is younger and sooner or later wiill eventually be better, probably sooner rather than later.

enough about holliday, it aint happening...what about the pitchers out there that the Os were thought to be interested in i.e Bedard? Sheets? etc., guys with injury issues that we can take a flier on cause the worst that happens is we finish last in the East...again...any word on those guys?

and if we dont get any pitching help what is our rotation?

Millwood, Guthrie, Koji?, Bergesen?, Matusz? Hernandez? all these guys plus more once they get hurt and/or rocked?

thanks, JZ

Sorry, Doug, I wasn't really paying attention to the time. As I just got out of prison, I haven't had the time to scare up a girl friend or a life so I'll just annoy you.

All I did was compare our good buddy wayne to a megalomaniac, someone who believes his way is the right way and no other way matters. Tell me I'm wrong.

Go ahead and agree with wayne, I don't care. We would all love it if the winning were to start now, but that's not the way it works. But wayne and his followers, I guess we can include you in that category, don't seem to understand that.

Building a winner takes time and patience and finally, we have in place the foundation to build that winner. I don't think anyone can say that in the past 12 years, the Orioles were building a winner. I don't think they were even trying. More to the point, they were just treading water.

But this team right now is on the verge of turning the corner. Yeah, we are likely facing another year or two of sub 500 ball, as the kids learn and gel. And in two to three years, the pieces will be in place and they will still be young and hungry. This team is being built to be not only a winner, but a winner for a long time.

Mac's plan reminds us of the great Orioles teams of the 70s and early 80s, when such homegrown stars as Eddie Murray, Mike Flanagan, Scott MacGregor, Doug DeCinces, Al Bumbry, Rich Dauer et al, augmented by the right trades and FA signings made them contenders thru the 70s, a World Series in '79, a hundred wins in '80, the best overall record in the AL in '81, a so very close near miss in '82 and finally, the whole thing in '83.

No matter what the day and age, building thru the system is the right way and it was only because the Orioles got away from that led to the debacles in '86, '87 and especially '88. And it was guys that came up thru the system that helped rebound the team in 89 and helped them be mostly competitive thru the 90s.

Now we are on the cusp of being relevant again, and you guys want to throw it all away for the historically dubious route of buying our way to a winner. People, that way doesn't work, and if it does work, it doesn't work for long.

But wayne's never ending diatribe is that unless the team does what he think they should do, the team is wrong. And his act is getting tiresome. It is very much the same theme over and over again.

No offense to all of you fine people, but I think I'll trust the building of the team to Andy MacPhail and Joe Jordan.

ken,the only thiing we are close to being on the cusp of being relevant too,is another losing season,and another one after that,before we even get to being competetive,and all of the roster moves to this point bear that out.And signing Holliday does not solve that problem.I'm not an Andy McPhail fan,never have been,but I think he is right in this move at least.

Hey,

I don't agree with everything that anyone says, including myself sometimes after some long diliberation. But I have to admit, if I was sitting in judgement of the O's and the media coverage of them, the word that comes to mind is accountability. And while I've said repeatedly (thanks Jim66 for pointing out the repeating nature of blogs) that AM has done a fine job in the draft, player development and beefing up the minors, his Major league product remains inferior and is actually losing ground to the other members of the AL East. Also, the half assed effort in the international prospects, signing old over the hill Japanese guys, and third rate Australian prospects does not make the O's a player. AM sure can apply cheap to all aspects of the organization.

But AM is paid to be the O's GM, and the product on the field, based on record has gone the wrong direction, FACT! Building the 2009 staff, I wrote repeatedly we needed to sign some proven middle of the road inning eaters! Who did he sign, Eaton, traded with Cubs for a bum, Mark Hendrickson, HELLO. Who is accountable for that? So this year we sign 35 year old Kevin Millwood to be our front of the rotation starter! He's 35 and hasn't been a front end starter for a few years. He's a 4 or 5 guy and and innings eater for a good team. And to make it worse, neither he or his agent wanted to come to Baltimore, only because we weren't on his exclusionary list of teams, very sad! But one guy to solve all the SP woes? I thought we didn't want to rush our youngsters? What about Jason Marquis? 2 years at $15M? Or Sheets where are we on that, oh let me guess were waiting til everyone else picks over the good players and we will sign whats left, say Jaime Moyer on a 1 year flyer for $1M. Accountability!
AM says we'll buy bats, ok we've needed a 4 hitter for about 8 years, he's been here for 3 years, where is the bat? He said were now counting wins, why the roster relative to the rest of the division is no better! Poor Dave, who should not have been rehired but why not have a sucky manager if the rest of the organization follows suit!

So as everyone whines and complains about all the whining and complaining on this blog, at least the whiners and complainers are realists and have assessed the situation for what it is. We all want the O's to win, and some of us are just a little more honest with ourselves and haven't bought into all the BS the Warehouse has dished out or the high road the local media takes! If it looks like a duck, sounds like a duck and walks like a duck, I for one call it a duck, not a rejuvinated, greatly improved with prospects and cheap gap fillers a major league baseball team!

Go Wayne, keep the faith UNTIL they actually demonstrate a committment to winning and you owe no apologies, to ANYONE on this blog for speaking your mind. There is more truth in your blogging than most of the Kool Aid drinkers posting here!

Way to go ken, keep it up...the warehouse is eternally grateful for your kind words and support.

In this age of slavishness to the bottom line (dare I say... WINS) it is gratifying to see there are still true fans like yourself who understand what it is like to stick by their team through the darkest of hours. Peace out.

Pete, Happy New Year to you and to all of my American friends. I enjoy the debate.

I don't claim to be the baseball expert so many of you are. My expertise lies more in organizational development, which is why baseball's off-season is often more interesting for me than the regular season.

Here is a question to consider and debate: is the road to an 82+ season in 2010 the same as to a 95+ season in 2013? If the roads are the same, then do what you can to get the 82 wins this season.

I suspect that they are different roads, and that the better road to choose would be the 95+ road in 2013.

I understand that among the assets the Orioles have squandered in the last decade is credibility and fan patience. I understand that many do not believe that the current road will ultimately get the Orioles to 95+ wins.

Talent is acquired through draft, trade, wire pick-ups, international free agency, and regular free agency. It seems like the current administration is good at the draft, good at the trade (some plusses and no big minusses), developing in the international free agency (this will take time to get up to normal since it was neglected for so long). Success in big name free agency will come with more credibility, but I have not noticed much success with under-valued free agents or waiver pick ups. I don't know if this is a problem with scouting, or a problem with player development.

Anyway, I think that trading for A Gonzalez or signing Holliday represents buying high. Holliday is less problematic as he only costs money, but I just don't see him as the kind of guy you significantly over-spend for. I would have preferred if they had put that kind of effort into signing Tex.

2010 really is a cross roads for the franchise. If the young arms come through as projected (both in the majors and minors), then there will be both the credibility to land the big free agent, and the inventory to make the big trade. If the young arms don't come through, Holliday won't make much of a difference.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Prof, great post. Happy New Year to you and yours. I think the road to 95 wins goes through the road to 77 wins this year, but that would still require some more talent.

"Keep the faith" -- that's a good one. The self-absorbed one wants Baltimore writers to be like New York writers, and he's doing what he can in his own way to make that happen.

Baltimore has had no shortage of having New York wannabees. From Mike Littwin to Mike Preston, this newspaper alone has employed plenty agenda-driven blowhards. We don't need anymore.

"It's all about winning" -- another good one. Duh! Rather than asking if anyone thinks there is a realistic chance this club will get 82 games this year, let me ask does anyone realistically think the Orioles COULD get 82 games this year?

If you say YES and think they will, then you are indeed Kool-Aid drinkers (wherever that stupid term came from). If you say YES but think it won't happen because Satan hired Andy MacPhail to hypnotize the masses, then you're so consumed with hate you can't move on.

I understand the hate. I was once an 81-game season ticket holder. Now, I see more minor league games involving the Tides, Baysox and Keys than I do the Orioles in person.

Right now -- and I mean right stinking now -- any discourse should revolve around whether the Orioles are getting better now, or if they could be doing something to make themselves better NOW.

We can all talk about the great blunders over the past . There is no shortage of evidence with Peter the Grate from the firing of Johnny Oates to the bringing in of 37 arms last year. As for the latter, I thought the Orioles should have made a proper offer to Teixeira and Burnett. If they weren't coming here anyway -- a typical defeatest attitude -- then make them turn down a better offer or make the Yankees pay more. Even after that, I thought there were a couple of pitchers who were obviously past their prime but could have been role models.

When none of that happened, I predicted 58 wins. And I was only an unlikely 6-2 start (half of the team needed to bat over .400 to overcome the smelly pitching) and a meaningless four-game winning streak at the end from being right.

However, I don't see how anyone can fault the Millwood trade. We gave up next to nothing for a guy who has had significant success and has has starts, innings pitched, ERA, complete games, etc. higher over the last 12 years than what most Orioles staffs have enjoyed in that time. Cal Ripken was still playing the last time the Orioles had three pitchers with at least 30 starts the same year.

Millwood makes the team better. Period. He may not be an ideal #1, but he's a better candidate than anyone else on the current 40-man. And that makes our former #1 (Guthrie) a #2, and so on down the line -- making the entire starting rotation better. Better as in more wins.

No one is saying that is enough -- even for this year. Certainly it won't be enough to get to 82 wins. Then again, this isn't the best year to really go after it, unless there is an amazing trade waiting to be made.

The first commitment to winning is to try to get better. The Orioles have done that. If you can't see that OR if think it's enough, you're delusional. Talk about sounding like a duck ... sheesh.

Good post European Prof. It's nice to hear a more analitical view once and a while, not that emotion or passion are a bad thing, but I believe they sometimes cloud our judgement. (myself included)

I especially like your post because while I have a hard time taking my fandom (and my desire for instant gratification as Jeff mentioned) out of the equation, I too feel that 2010 is a "crossroads" season for all of the reasons you mentioned.

A post like yours' makes me think about all the parallels that our baseball discussion has to the world of business and even politics. (In that world I guess the "warehousers" would be the conservatives and the "trolls" would be the liberals, or is it vice-versa, i can't decide, the whole thing is becoming a little too much Lord of The Flies/Outsiders for me!)

Well, whatever your affiliation, Happy New Year too all. Best of luck in 2010.

How about signing Holliday and then packaging up some of the surplus for Adrian Gonzales?

Who cares? Navy beat the snot out of Missouri in the bowl game. Congratulations Navy. Is it any wonder why Maryland is scared to death to sign a deal to play Navy every year? The Naval Academy: the official college football team of the state of Maryland.

Nicely put Jeff.

Eight years is too long for anyone not named Texeira or Pujols.

Prediction: Holliday hits 8-12 more HR's than Reimold.

Not saying the O's cannot use Holliday in the lineup, but eight years is WAY to much to lock into. Thank goodness Andy Mac doesn't buy into it.

Give Andy a break. The guy's been on the job for 2 years and he has changed the entire culture of the organization. This guy is attempting to repair years and years of systematic abuse and disfunction. That doesn't happen overnight. The young nucleus is starting to bud and will continue to grow this year. I trust this guy 100%. He comes from a family of baseball men and he knows what he's doing. I'm as sick of losing as anybody, believe me. I just think its ridiculous how quick to judge people are. Remember Flanagan and Beatie, Sid Thryft? Those guys were a joke. I know its the last thing everybody wants to hear right now cuz we all want to see The O's win but have patience. 2 years is not enough of a sample size to judge a man tasked with the burden of turning THIS ship around.

Excellent post CT Chris.

Happy New Year to all.

Signed,
The Old Curmudgeon

debate can be boiled down to two basic thrusts:

1. angry fan says there is no reason why Team shouldn't be competitive

2. patient fan says be patient

insults, flames ensue

oddly, both are true. depending on day wayward o is either in camp one or two

If MacPhail gets the greenlight from Angelos to pony up the money for Matt Holliday, then why would it not be a good move? I think that Holliday would have to come in knowing that he was getting paid to be a full-time DH, one he is reportedly trying to run away from after the post-season cupcheck. Second, Nolan Reimold surprised everyone with his plate discipline, but still continued to battle injuries that have plagued him throughout the minors. Holliday is a great, albeit expensive insurance should he not be able to come back. It frees up a marginal trade piece in Luke Scott to be traded for an equally marginal corner infield bat to throw in the mix with Adkins and Wigginton or (and perhaps needed more) a good bullpen arm with a track record.

The bullpen is where the Orioles need to turn attention now to support the young staff. The market is glutted with middle relief and most would come cheap. A guy, or two, say David Weathers who ended his season with the Brewers and is 40, would be cheap and add stability.

Food for thought. I am as tired of the losing as anyone but was generally pleased with the projected prospects finally able to contribute as they were advertised. If Angelos is willing to spend it, why not put Holliday in the equation. Angelos has the money, it's his ego that gets in the way.

EuroProf,

Nice post.

BTW, there are no baseball experts on this site. Lots of opinions,lots of stats,lots of conjecture and rumours, yelling,screaming,name calling- across the board, but I don't think anyone has ever run a baseball club. Either into the ground or up from a junkpile.

Happy New Year.

The Old Curmudgeon.

jim66{old Curmudgeon]

But if we did we would run it better than this one has been run which is as you said, into the ground and into the junkpile.

Barack Obama never ran anything either and look where he is.

Happy New year, as my father used to say, as long as you wake up on this side of the dirt, it's a good day.

Signed,

Gil, the older curmudgeon

Pete,

I want to wish you, and everyone who posts here a happy new year! I have decided to reduce myself to a reader on this blog because, who knows what wayne, jason c, and all the other eternal pessimists will do next. I almost find it comical, wayne, that you think you're so high and mighty when, in reality, most people on this blog don't have an ounce of respect for you. And you know what? They never will if you don't stop the personal attacks and make coherent arguments that aren't riddled with nonsense about, "the Orioles will never get better," and variations on that overused diatribe.

We get it, wayne. You don't need to make the same point over, and over, and over again. I might tolerate it if you didn't take such offense at the people who are actually fans, and WANT to see this team do well. Unlike you; you just want to dwell on the O's past woes and, honestly, you don't want to see the other side of things. You think, "My way or the high way." You refuse to look at rational arguments--yes, you say your arguments are "rational" when, in fact, they're just a bunch of pessimistic dribble drabble that you've made so many times that nobody wants to take you seriously.

I'm not into attacking you like you do unto others. But I think you need to realize (even though I'm probably wasting my time--worth a try, though) that there are boundaries. You have crossed them, big time. You want to face the truth? You want to be rational? Well, obviously not. You may say we're wimps, you may say we're stupid for wanting to look at the future, but you're just as dumb for believing that this team hasn't changed any since, MacPhail (or as you coined him, McFail) took over. It has. Face it.

I'm sure you're going to respond with some sarcastic remarks about my irrational, eternal optimism, but I won't take it to heart because you've become a joke to me, and to most people on this blog.

Happy new year, wayne.

Some amazing post!

Shamrock, very, very funny dude! Laughed my azs off! Great stuff!

Ted, yes the game is broken... sadly! It doesn't mean the Orioles have to be broken however. Let's see them develop players with a payroll near 110 million and see where the chips fall. That would be fair to the fans because at least there would be an 'effort'.

Gil, Happy New Year to you as well. We agree allot, it's just that you're more diplomatic than I. You're obviously a great guy!

New years resolution wayne, I wanted your post to be funny, but it doesn't seem to work. I'll go back and read it once more though....

Finally, those of you using the word 'patience', you're really embarrassing yourselves. And when you infer that the next 2 years may be sub 500 years, you're truly defining the type of fan the warehouse cherishes. The type of fan who doesn't care about winning, and the type of fan that will always buy their multiple excuses. They count on you, although they're losing you in numbers, quickly!

Thanks Keith, Pablo, and the rest for the kind words. Keep pushing for this once proud organization to win games. Push the media, push your neighbors, push the warehouse bloggers..... It's worth it, because you care, and you're tired of the lies....

Enjoy New Years day everyone!

Hi Gil,

I do have one gripe with PA,
and it's all water under the bridge.(No, this is not to start a PA bitching session. You know that I don't think that tact is productive).
If the job that AM has been charged with had started 5 years ago, we'd probably be having a different conversation today.
You know, on second reading, I think Europrof has pretty much hit the nail on the head. AM's job is here is exactly that-organizational development.
This is a plan that stresses consistency and efficiencies, proper player development, smart resource allocation, one that eschews the short term fix for long term gains. It sets a course and provides marching orders for the organization. In the scheme of things, one more year spent nailing down what you really have, then making the proper cost-effective moves in a better market is pretty consistent with the goal of long-term success.
I don't think that this Plan discounts necessary flexibility,
Or means that it is blind to the goins on at OPACY. But it does require staying a rational course for once.
On a side note, I don't think that anyone who agrees or disagrees with this approach is any more a winner or loser than the next guy. I can respect almost everyone's opinion.

Best in 2010, Jim.

llana,

Happy New Year to you as well,

I've never called anyone a wimp, nor have I called one stupid. Hasn't happened. Won't happen!

You simply don't like what I, and so many others are saying. And that's ok! The great thing is, there are more people finally telling the truth on these pages than in the past.

You see, we understand the development of the team. We have acknowledged such in fact. We want more though.

We want to know why the team is 26 of 30 in spending. At least they could tell us what they're doing with the money they're saving. You think your tickets will be discounted in 2010? I guess we'll see...

Mostly though, we have decided not to ALWAYS accept that 'it's not about this season', when this season has yet to begin. When do you stop accepting such?

We realize that there will always be those who are ultra positive, no matter what. I mean there are still positive people in Pittsburgh if you can believe that. That really is true!

But you see, Pittsburgh has developing players as well.... as does KC, Cincy etc, etc.... We ARE those cities now.

Some of us just don't choose to be!

SIncerely, thanks for the post. Now let's see if the Orioles can win one more game than they lose. Not in 2012, but this year. Let's all be prideful of baseball in baltimore once again.

Now you have the Europeans involved. Great! They're always good at solving big problems. But Russia and China will almost certainly veto any sanctions against the Yankees, so let's move on.

First of all, anybody who doesn't agree with himself has a serious personality disorder. Good God, man, get help!

Second, the Orioles won't go after Matt Holliday cause it's a dumb idea. Matt Holliday wants Mark Texiera money. Matt Holliday isn't Mark Texeira. Without Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texeira isn't Mark Texeira. The Yankees overpaid for him because they were a few players away from contention. The Orioles are not.

And Nolan Reimold's numbers were pretty comparable to Holliday's last year. If he can stay healthy (big if), he could be a better player than Holliday by 2011 when the team plans a return to respectability. Just in case, McPhail kept Felix Pie, which at the time I thought was dumb, but that's why even Peter Angelos won't let me run his team.

I have to admit, at first I thought McPhail may not know what he was doing, but now I think he may be a genius. This is the way the Orioles used to do it in their heyday, and the way the Ravens do it now. They draft the best player on the board and spent their FA money wisely. The make trades to add depth and fill holes. They hedge their bets by keeping several talented players in each position rather than trading them away for a case of beer because somebody's "blocking" them.

This isn't the last World Series the Yankees will buy, but the Orioles can't do that. They have to be smarter. And overpaying for an overrated, second-tier "superstar" because he's the top free agent in a thin market ain't smart, it's desperate.

Wait and see what Matt Wieters and Adam Jones can do. If those guys pan out, we won't need to overspend for Mark Texeira or Matt Holliday.

jim66,

I agree, I think that Andy Macphail has done a great job filling the pipeline with player development and prospect acquistion. I was one of his biggest supporters all through 2008.

My issue with Macphail started during 2009 when it appeared that he was banking evreything entirerly on the success of the minor league system and either forgot or didn't seem to care that the major league team was busy playing 162 games and needed some help to stay viable while help was on the way.

Thta's what I think has created the polarization between the fans who are of a mindset to wait patiently for the"plan" to succeed and those, like myself, who feel that Macphail shortchganged the major league product on the field while we had a vested interested, many of us financially, in expecting to see a major league product.

I have always said that it did not have to be a zero sum game, and the fans did not have to be teased with Macphail's"i'll add big time talent when I think it is appropriate"philosophy. That uncertainty is what is creating the anxiety and rancor with fans who think like myself.
I think the professor did a much more eloquent and diplomatic job of framing that debate than any of us ever have.

By the way, you know I think the world of you and bob c. and i wouldn't even think to tease both of you a little if I thought it would upset you.

There have been several times on the blog my attempt at humor has ended up with the recipient responding to me like George Brett in the pine tar incident.

Oriole fans would love to see the 100 million dollar contract spent on a free agent, to show that the front office has a pulse. IMO, the Orioles need to stay the course! Next years free agent class will be much better. Opps, I said "next year". Under the MacSnail watch, the O's have re-signed and rewarded the home grown talent, the O's now have a pulse in the international free agent community, moved to a respectable spring training facility and have been big spenders when it comes to the ML draft. Everyone wants do it the Oriole way, well that takes time. I'm not going to tell Oriole fans to be patient or wait till next year but look what is finally happening under the MacSnail watch, the Oriole way is coming back!

Sign a stop gap at 1b and DH and let the baby birds play some ball!!!

Nothing personal to anyone on here- we're ALL long-suffering O's fans, joined together in our opinions, and ready to bust out in jubilation when the winning returns! Yes, we've all been frustrated and it's not fun losing. Even though I may not agree w/everything said, I still respect your opinions- which you are entitled to.

That said, I completely agree with Ken, who is spot on in regards to our O's heading in the right direction. Out of the 12 losing years, remember that most of those years we had absolutely NO direction and had this deceived notion that we were on the cusp to field a competitive team year after year- while NOT spending wisely on a lot of high-over, priced free agents. But finally, with PA realizing he has failed miserably, he brought in AM to actually build the way you're supposed to build. We will never be able to financially compete consistently w/the hated Yanks (although we have in the past at times), but we can certainly build the right way, for the long-term- mostly by a youth focus. There is no perfect GM- never will be- and AM- like everyone else- will make questionable and even bad decisions at times. But he truly is the BEST GM we have had in quite some time who is building the right way. Like Ken said, I also choose to leave the building to him and his staff. They know what's best, and if they think it's wise to sign Holliday- they WILL do it. If not, a better plan/FA is coming. I've said all along, don't make a splash this year. Wait another year to better evaluate our young players to see what they can do, thus better evaluating long-term needs- AND wait for a better FA class. Holiday is good, but I will not be disappointed in the slightest if we pass on him. AM knows what budget he has to work with long-term. I do believe PA will crack open the checkbook when he has a compelling reason to do so- by his trusted advisors. Let's just be glad PA isn't persuading AM to sign Holliday at all costs b/c HE think it's the best way to go. That my friends, is the old PA. Let's be grateful that it appears he is letting AM do his job WITHOUT the meddling. More than anything, THIS makes me happy b/c I know the winning will return. AM inherited a mess, but the ship is turning around. Patience.

Happy New Years and GO O'S!!

OK, Wayne, I'm not really into to getting into a debate with you, but here goes. Please, humor me, and tell me what more do you want? First of all, we are a LOT better off than Pittsburgh. The Pirates are a mess because, as bad as Angelos may be, their penny pinching owner is much, much worse. At least we're making an effort. Pittsburgh has done nothing of the sort. Do you seriously think that having a young team to build around is BAD? That this team is going backward because we don't pay $18 million per year (for 8 years) to a guy who definitely isn't worth than kind of cash?

Wayne, I'm as frustrated as you are. But I'm not going to rail on and on about how much Andy MacPhail is messing up this team--he's doing nothing of the sort.

I'd like to hear a coherent argument about how this team is becoming worse. Not more of the same, "WIN NOW or ELSE I WON'T BUY TICKETS!" When in fact, you contradict yourself. You keep coming back to this blog and saying (something along the lines of), "I'm buying tickets but I want to see them win." That doesn't convince me to take you seriously.

Honestly, I'm being more of a realist than you because I'm demonstrating patience. Not everything can be fixed instantly. MacPhail inherited a disaster, I'll admit that. But he's making it better, faster than you let on. Wake up, wayne, yeah--YOU WAKE UP! I've already had my morning coffee and I suggest you have some, too--even though it's already the afternoon.

Look, we can go back and forth until I hear real answers out of you. Maybe you should listen to people who believe in the direction the team is going, and not ignore it. Maybe, just maybe, you'll see that this O's team is world's better than the teams of the last 12 years.

And maybe the O's will surprise us and win in 2010. I'd really like to hear from you then. I'm not counting on it, but I really would like to listen to what you have to say. If they win, what will you be saying about penny pinching Peter Angelos? Or will you still say MacPhail is running this team into the ground? Or will you man up and say, "You told me so"?

I don't know if I really want to hear your answer, but hell, worth a shot. I believe in this team because they deserve it.

Wouldn't you rather spend that $18 million per year on a position of need? How about using that money to sign Chapman, Bedard, and Delgado? Chapman won't command a huge salary. And you can even argue he would be a top pick in the 1st round if he were in the draft. Signing him would more then make up for the loss of our 2nd round pick. Bedard, we all know what he is capable of. How sweet it would be to get him back after trading him. Get him on a short term, incentive laden deal. Same with Delgado.

Frank Rizzo,

First of all, Happy New Year.

I think the Orioles should stay away from Bedard. He is coming off labrum surgery and may never be the same. I read that his surgery was similar to the surgey performed on Oriole prospect Troy Patton two years ago who was a lot younger than Bedard. Patton's velocity has yet to return to the low 90's fastball he had when Macphail aquired him. Macphail wants veteren pitchers who are ready to get into the rotation and give him 200 innings, as the Orioles ease and condition the younger pitchers to stretch out.

All anybody knows about Chapman is what they have read in the Papers and I don't know if there are any Major League Scouts who have seen him perform under game conditions. Andy Macphail is not likely to take a flyer and spend a lot of money on someone he has little documentation on, and in this case I think he will be right.

Delgado probably best fits Macpail's "stopgap" definitions but I don't think he will end up here either. Again, if he does not end up in Baltimore I think Macphail would have made the right move. Delgado is breaking down physically and if Macphail does acquire a stopgap first baseman I think he will expect him to be able to play 150 games. Odds are against it with Delgado at this point.

Happy New Year Pete and all the posters here. I enjoy reading this blog, and watching but generally not participating in all the arguments. As long as folks stay away from calling each other imbeciles and idiots and the like, I enjoy reading spirited arguments and I occasionally learn something from them.
I think we're all united in hoping that the O's can improve substantially this coming season, hopefully to at least .500, though we will likely always have disagreements over how best to get there. Just remember folks, that even though we love them and want to see them do well, it's just a game. There's really no reason to be calling your fellow fans morons and boneheads just because they disagree with you.
Let's hope the O's surpass all of our best hopes and dreams in 2010, and I wish all of you a wonderful year.

waspman:

I agree with much of what you say in your 4:06am post, in particular with respect to pitching. I take minor exception though to you saying, "Certainly it won't be enough to get to 82 wins."

If Millwood and Guthrie each put up 200IP with ERAs in the 4-4,5 range and 2 of our 3 kids work out, we'll have a decent 4 man staff and a big leg up to having a decent overall team ERA.

No team in the AL last year that had at least a somewhat middle of the road ERA won fewer than 75 games. In fact, of the 3 teams last year with slightly lower than average ERAs, and the 3 that were slightly higher, 5 of the 6 had winning records with the worst being the Jays with 75.

All we have is ifs this time of year, but if that happens, if we have a reasonable amount of improvement from Jones, Weiters and the other young guys, if AM adresses first base and adds a solid arm or two in the pen between now and spring training, there's no reason they can't have a winning season. They may not, but they certainly could.

llana,

Now that was better, and certainly more civil.

First, I've never threatened to not re-new my season tickets. My longtime friends and I enjoy the open air summer nights, and we love baseball in general.

llana, what makes us very close to Pitts is the losing. Not long ago the Pirates had all the names... names arguably as good as the developing Orioles. As they developed together however, they were shipped off. Why won't that happen in Baltimore?

I don't know what rank Pitts is in payroll, but can they be much worse than the O's, who are 26 of 30? I mean are they # 28 or 30? The bottom is the bottom is the bottom.

I read above that we have to have patience with the 'baby birds'. Hmmm, heard that back in 2002 and 2003. Or was it 2004? The 'patient' request never ends in baltimore.

AM is treated like a god in this city. Problem is, he had nothing to do with bringing in players like BRob, Markakis, Reimold, Bergesen and he wasn't here to draft Weiters.

But wait, he did sign Weiters and got new deals for BRob and Markakis. What if he didn't do such however? Would the O's be #29 in payroll? I mean they do have to field a team...

Now, and as I have said MANY times, he has done some good things, especially organizational wise. He also made some good trades when he first arrived, but in my opinion, he missed terribly on getting quality for Huff (he waited too long) and Sherrill last year.

I've often said the model is St. Louis. They're a similar size market and spend accordingly. They are known for surrounding their developing players with quality, proven veterans. They would NEVER bank everything on developing players only, surrounded by Fillers.

In order to be respectable, the Orioles needed to get 2 middle of the order proven, experienced bats, thus taking pressure of young players like Weiters and Reimold. Instead, they got Atkins (enough said).

To help the young pitchers, who make up three fifths of the starting rotation, they needed to get another quality, experienced starter. Millwood is fine, but his 07' and 08' stats were miserable meaning he could easily be a bust. A top of the rotation player would allow the Bergesen's, Tillman's, etc to come along at a better pace.

This isn't rocket science lliana! It's also nothing new. The problem is, the Angelos family brought in AM because he's ultra, ultra, ultra, ultra conservative. While Angelos doesn't care about winning (fact), he hired someone who will give the appearance that things are always progressing in the right direction.

Thus the ALWAYS 'it was never about this year' line. Problem is, the 'it was never about this year' line was used in 09'. It's a line Pittsburgh and KC use every year.

I just don't buy the line anymore llana. Neither do my season ticket holder friends, and neither do most people on these blogs. We're tired of the lies and deception. We're tired of the same old lines, the same old excuses and most importantly, the same old losing.

Call us names, call us negative, call us trolls and call us whiners. Lie about us, distort what we say, and criticize our rants. It's all good!

At the end of the day though, all we want is to not be embarrassed of our hometown baseball team. No matter how you look at it, teams are rated on Wins and Losses..... not by how baseball america rate prospects.

Wayne,

I want to commend you for your so-called rants. I've been around Pete's blog for some time and I think you're a breath of fresh air.
I just think it's terrible how some people treat you though. llana in particular was simply rude and obnoxious. I think your response to her was amazing. Keep it up wayne. As someone else said earlier, you do speak for many of us.

I love reading all you guys. Everybody wants the same thing, for the O's to WIN. Some are positive and some are negative but everyone wants them to WIN. Would it be possible to delete the words Stopgap and Inning Eater from our posts or are they really necessary? Kool Aid Drinkers means what? Everyone have a Happy and Healthy New Year from an O's fan that went to his first game in 1945 (Int League)

Gil,

Happy New Year to you as well. You may be right. Chapman is a bit of an unknown. But he is rated as one of the premier starting pitchers in the free agent class. He is 21 years old and a hard throwing lefty. Everyone who has seen him pitch has raved about him. Maybe he is a bit of a risk. But my point was the money that could have been spent on Holliday, could go to other positions of need. You can never have enough young starting pitchers. I would take the gamble on him and roll the dice. Let him be the 2nd round pick we are giving up next year. Again, he would be a first rounder if he were in the draft.

You may also be right about Bedard. Coming off surgery is always a risk. That is why you sign him short term to an incentive laden deal. If he doesn't perform, then he won't cost you much. If he does perform, it would be worth the gamble since his salary will only go up based on innings pitched and wins. Either way, we probably do not need another starting pitcher. But if we do, Bedard could be a risk worth taking.

Another left handed pitcher who is relatively young that I have not heard much about is Noah Lowry. Looking at his stats, he looks pretty decent. I am not sure why his name has not come up at all.

As far as adding a big bat, Delgado would be a perfect fit. You say his health is an issue. But if you look at his stats, last season was his only year where he missed significant time due to injury. You may think he is not the same player, but again, if you sign him to an incentive laden deal, the risk is limited. Troy Glaus signed for $2 million. You don't think Delgado would be in a similar range? Delgado would be perfect at 1B and Atkins at 3B. Then when Bell comes up, Atkins can move to 1B and Delgado can DH. I think that would be a pretty solid lineup. If Delgado returns to form, he will easily hit 30 HR's with that short right field fence. He is getting older, but that is why you sign him to a short term deal.

Then we can see how Snyder, Waring, and Widlansky are doing. If none of them are the answer, you go for another big bat next off season when there are more top players who fill the need. I just don't think Holliday is the answer. Remember, Izturis will be a free agent after the season too. I don't know about you, but I think a player like Jose Reyes would be worth the wait and be a nice upgrade at SS. More than Holliday would be in the OF, don't you think? Then maybe you make a run at Adam Dunn. I think those players fill in the holes more than Holliday ever will. That's where I would spend the money if it were me. If it means waiting, then I would have no problem waiting knowing the guys who will have more of an impact are in the next free agent class. You have to admit, this year's free agent class is nothing special. Very little supply and demand is still high. When supply is high, we will be able to get the players we need.

Barb,

If you have been reading this blog for some time, then you might see Pete's side. And my side. And other people who are tired of Wayne's constant whining. I haven't commented in a very long time, but I've seen what he does.

Excuse me for taking offense at his name-calling. Wayne, I have seen you call people names, by the way. I chose to ignore that response because I didn't want to start a heated debate with you.

I find it hard to believe that I would be called rude and obnoxious when I am just echoing what people have said before. Barb, he's been told that his constant negativity is annoying. He's been told that there is no need to call us "warehousers" or "irrational" or whatever it is. But he doesn't listen. I thought he needed to be told straight up.

Obviously, I was misunderstood. I suppose there is no use reasoning with Wayne because he refuses to accept that there are other views. Recently he's been vouching for himself. He's saying that I am at fault ("I" being those who believe in the direction the team is going in) for disagreeing with him. He is saying that I am wrong. He is saying that if I believe something other than him, than it's OK. Fine, but you need to show me that it's OK if I am to believe you actually are agreeing to disagree.

Excuse me for wanting my opinion respected. Wayne, you've shot down opinions like mine in the past, and you've dodged anyone who finds flaws in your logic.

Everyone keeps saying how much we improved over last yr's team. WEll, is that REALLY any sort of accomplshment ?

It was awfully clever of MacPhail to waste last offseason by signing washed up retreads like Adam Eaton, et al. Now he can waste another yr signing "better" retreads and call it "improvement" since Millwood is "better" than Eaton. He aint better than CC or Beckett or Shields but strangely that seems irrelevant to some

Now if Andy (I set expectations low so I dont have to ever accomplish anything) MacPahil can somehow arrange the 2010 Orioles to play the 2009 Orioles 162 games this yr, we might actually have a chance at a winning record.

Unfortunately, we play major league teams built to compete who and they r going to be better than the 2009 Orioles, lol

SInce improvement in the standings isnt likely, we'll just ahve to settle for being at the top in PROFITABILTY, the bottom of the standings and 26 th of 30 in payroll

Andy has managed to slice 35 million off of payroll since his arrival in 2007, so he's doing what he came to do. He even took 1 million of the 35 million he slashed from payroll and put it into international scouting. If he adds 5 million more, he'll be even with the red sox in that dept.

Keep waiting for that player that "makes more sense" and while you do, ol greedy petey will just put more money in his pockets, cuz it wont be going onto the product on the field anytime soon. The warehouse is already hard at work on formulating the excuses for why it wont be prudent to spend next yr.

llana,

Maybe I haven't been checking the blogs enough lately, but I think I've been following them pretty well. I just don't see the back and forth the way you do. I have no reason to speak for this guy but I don't feel that just because he passionately disagrees, that means he's calling people names. Could it be that you're doing exactly what you're accusing him of doing? In a previous subject a few weeks ago, I was called a wayne follower, just because I happened to agree with one of his statements. I took it as mean spirited because I don't follow anyone, wayne or anyone else. I think for myself. I'm not ashamed to admit that he does seem to make sense and he does make people think in ways I don't think we've seen. Maybe that makes me a bad person, the kind of person you make wayne out to be. If so, fine. I do know one thing though. I am tired of losing. Very tired. There's is something he says often that really makes sense. And that is why is it never about this season before this season ever starts? And you know what llana? He's so right. I've been hearing that for years. It never ends.

Just be nicer and listen to opposing views without thinking you're being attacked. It makes people look very defensive.

Jason,

Amazing! Isn't it a powerful feeling when you have facts to work with?

Good job!

............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Wayne, just because you agree with a certain piece of information does not make it a fact. Jason made some observations with you can agree with or not, but there wasn't a single fact there.

It is comical for you to think we could have signed C.C, Beckett, or Shields when we had no chance to compete even if we did sign them. Those players wanted to play for a contender. The O's were not even close at that point. None of the prospects were ready to play. You think the team now resembles the team then? Really? Are you serious? Millwood and Guthrie are not aces. But guess what? Bergensen, Matusz, and Tillman are all projected as top of the rotation pitchers. You really think Guthrie and Millwood will be here two years from now? I am pretty sure by that time, we will have Arrieta and Erbe up in the rotation filling their spots. Both of those players are also projected as top of the rotation pitchers. Why is that you can't see that? The rebuilding is in the midst of paying off. You want to write off all the young players before you even give them a chance. I can see you complaining if it turns out they don't pan out. But do you really have that much hope for failure? It's like you don't want the young players to succeed at all costs. You don't even want to see what they can do, no matter how much potential they have.

You can say that all of us who think things are turning around are oblivious and have no clue what is going on. But the truth is that you don't want the O's to do better, even if it means developing players and allowing them to improve. You want to get rid of them and replace them high priced free agents. Why did we trade Tejada, Bedard, Sherrill, etc.? We all knew when that happened it would take time to see the results. You are giving up way too early. These players are making their way on the roster NOW. There is no more waiting. Why is it so bad to do what the Rays did and have your own highly touted prospects turn the franchise around? I still think we will be in the hunt to go .500 next season. It could take another year or two after that to make a serious run. But when that happens, don't think it would have been well worth the wait? If the front office does not sign the players to take us over the top then, I will be on the same boat as all of you. But you have to at least give them a chance and see what we have.

Some of the posters on here make me sick. Do you people really think the Orioles are basically an expansion team because the bad decisions the team made in the past? All I know is the Orioles got MASN basically for free and that is a big source of revenue regardless if people think it does not have many advertisements or whatever. That was given to them years ago so why haven’t they been able to turn it around yet with that revenue and MLBs revenue sharing. Why is the payroll always close to the last in MLB? Peter Angelos is a greedy bum who pockets that cash instead of getting real major league caliber athletes. Instead he spends a fraction to over hype marginal players that cant win games because it is cost effective. That is the so called plan. Andy Mcphail knows he cannot fix this team and I am sure the only reason he took the job was to give the appearance that the Orioles want to improve. I am sure Andy took this job because there is no pressure due to the circumstances of not having to try to win and he can wait out his time before he is the next commissioner while still earning millions being an exec. This team is an expansion team because it chooses to and its easier to fool fans that they cannot compete but they will in the future. Baseball is not broken it’s the Orioles.

Frank, Do you see how it is with young pitchers in major league baseball? To believe that Matusz and Tillman will meet their projections, and to believe teams won't adjust to Bergesen, who was not a significant prospect, would be terribly naive.

So many teams hope their young pitchers pan out, yet most don't. Some blow their arms out, some take 5 years to develop and some end up in the bullpen. Look around the league. For every King Felix, their are dozens and dozens of Ian Kennedy's. That's just the way it is. The way it has always been. To expect the Oriole arms to meet projections would be irresponsible.

I know your answer to that will be that the Orioles are stockpiled with pitchers in case the Tillman's don't pan out. To that I say good. Just don't bank everything on young pitchers though.

Balance

Jason, do all of us a favor- Andy got rid of 35 million of payroll. How about you name those players and the associated dollars, and we'll discuss the relative merits of those players. Short of you naming those players and having me look it up (a famous Wayne ploy), I'll consider your post just another garbage filled senseless rant. I'll even start:
Gibbons - 5 m

Barb, I guess you also like factless rants.
Please.Wayne doesn't get validated because you feel sorry for him.

Pete,
This seemingly innocuous article sure stirred up a hornets nest of activity. Folks are bogged down in minutia and don't see the big picture.
There are only two ways for the Orioles to return to greatness.
1)MLB institutes a hard salary cap
2)MLB folds due to irreconcilable differences and a new WORLD BASEBALL LEAGUE emerges. I suspect that the BALT-DC area would get a team. This is the scenario I want, but it would certainly take several decades. A new type of aircraft that can traverse half the planet in just a few hours would be required to make this feasible. Presuming that civilization persists in its current form for at least a few more centuries, a WBL will evolve due to world wide demand. Teams would be in the USA, Mexico, Cuba, Venezuela, the Caribbean, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Europe and South Africa for starters. There would be a TRUE World Series!
With baseball in its current form, you could still look forward to the Orioles winning a pennant once per generation.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I don't think Wayne can wait that long.

Ken,

What if Peter Angelos would just spend money? Then would baseball still need a cap or would we wish there was not a cap?

If baseball ends up getting a salary cap expect that to be the new excuse the Orioles throw out there why we wont get any hot names here in Baltimore.

Baseball does not need a cap it needs protection from bad owners that take areas hostage. MLB should step in and help the Orioles be a better team.

Frank Dizzo,

Its comical that u cant read at the 3rd grade level. I wasnt suggesting that we could've signed CC, Beckett, and SHields, especailly considering that Shileds and Beckett werent even free agents. LMAO

The point was that comparing this yrs team to last yrs team isnt how u build a winner. IF you want to make a comparison, it should be a comparison to the other teams in the division, u know the guys we actually play. Its sort of... well moronic to compare this yrs team to last yrs team since we dont play them.

Y not compare the 2010 orioles to the 88 orioles while were at it? SUrely the 2010 Os wont lose 21 in a row, therefore we're making "progress". its just not real or honest progress. Its what apologists lean on to justify their curious belief in the macpahil myth. Nobody said the apologists were big into facts, they prefer leaning on projections and goofy scenarios where everything magically falls into place in some distant future world

SO try and keep up, skippy

Jim(IQ of)66. Ill tell u where the 35 million didnt go, it didnt go back into the team.

That 35 million went back in the coffers so the O's can remain in the top of the standings, if you are measuring profitability that is.

Admit it Jim, you are dogging Beatagan now, but I guarantee u were blindly supporting their idiocy when it was happening then just like u are acting like macphails blind lapdog now.

The same ppl whop blindly support macphail now definitely showed the same blind devotion to the moronic decisions of their predecessors. One day you'll catch up and will be mocking the inept macphail administration, it just takes the apologists a little longer to catch up, poor guys

............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Sorry Jason, but you'll have to spell better if you're going to take such an irritatingly superior attitude.

Jim66, You just validated so much. I never thought wayne was correct about there being warehouse bloggers, until now. You're mean to people and like a little boy, you get defensive. People like you and llana are really ruining these blogs.

Ted,

You are right. You can't count on all the prospects to pan out. I have acknowledged that already in other posts. But what many of you naysayers continue to believe is that none of them will. I have a problem with that. Which prospects do you think won't pan out? You think Reimold, Weiters, Bergensen, and Matusz all will regress instead of progress? If you watched them play last season, you would have seen them all improve at the end.

I think we can all agree that the prospects in the past that were highly touted ended up being overrated. But what you also fail to realize is that our farm system was also one of the worst in baseball. So if the prospects did not pan out, there was no one to replace them with.

You are right though. If they don't pan out, we still have enough waiting in the wings who can come up. Arrieta and Erbe both have the potential to be front line pitchers as well. We have all waited a long time for these prospects to be major league ready. Now it looks like they are. It still makes no sense to throw it all away when they are here. Same thing with the position players. It is getting pointless arguing about the rookies who are ready to play when most of you don't care. You don't want to give the rookies a chance to see how they even perform. It is sad that you can be so negative when there are many bright spots to look forward to.

Frank,

Of course some of them will pan out. Who said all of them wouldn't? And why am I a naysayer because I'm just stating the obvious as it pertains to prospects and developing players? All I'm saying is that it's irresponsible to put all of one's eggs into this one basket, especially when you don't have to. I keep reading that this club is number 26 in payroll. Why does that not make a point with anyone?

Surround these young guys with mature talent. Real talent that will cost real dollars. I am a calm person but I just want to scream. It's so clear that the orioles have become one of the cheapest clubs in baseball. Help Wayne, Jason, Gil and everyone

Wayne chastises posters who defend the front office and buy into whatever "plan" they have. I wonder if it has occurred to him that he's the one who has a 81 game plan. At least that's what he claims. If that's true, he's one of the suckers putting money in Peter Angelos' pockets in return for the poor teams and misleading management he rails about. It makes little sense to me.

I'm one of the skeptics sitting on my wallet until the O's stop talking about fielding a winning team and actually do it. Seems to me that's more logical.

dedalus,

You are 100% correct! I've explained why I keep writing the checks, but trust me, some nights I do feel like a sucker.

Maybe I'll sell my tickets to Yankee or Red Sox fans like everyone else has been doing. Something to ponder.

Barb, if I worked for the Orioles do you really think I'd be on this blog responding to jason, wayne, and now you? Another one, get a grip.
All I validated is that when you ask jason a pointed question in response to his latest whiny rant, you get total bs in response. A little personal attack thrown in for good measure. Really not unexpected,Maybe you didn't read his reply to my simple question. Maybe it was easy to gloss over his 30 line rant to a simple question? I don't know, you tell me?
Maybe you can ask him why he is so intent on spending money, as if throwing money at something guarantees you immediate success. As if waving dollar bills at players makes them trip over each other trying to get to Baltimore. Ummm, we both know that is not the case.
Between Wayne(Win in your life) and Jason(MoneyBlahAngelosBlahMillionsBlah), I'm torn between who is worse.

I'm bored,

Everyone....... Yes, Im saying win now. Why is that so bad? Win more games than you lose... Yes, Now!

The losing is old! Saying 'next year' is old! Always making excuses is old!

So Hell Yes... Win Now!

Gnight all!

How is this even up for debate? The Orioles suck. Spend some money, get some players, win some games, bring back the fans lol cmon man

The naysayers have finally won me over. It is all so clear to me now. "The warehouse" doesn't want to win. Imagine, a civil litigation attorney, who doesn't get paid unless he wins in court, doesn't actually care about winning on the baseball field.

Pete, why didn't I see this before?!

bob c, keep in mind the nature of baseball's 162-game season is when a team is pegged as an x-win team, there is a geometric plus or minus involved. That's why when those who major in applied mathematics run a computer model of something with as many variables as a baseball season, they tend to run it 100,000 or some other crazy amount of times. Eventually, a pattern emerges.

Therefore, if March rolls around and this looks like it might be a 75-win team, there is an implication involved that they COULD win 82 games, but the higher you deviate the less likely it would happen.

My 58-win prediction last year sort of had a range of 55 to 65 wins (without involving decimals and such). And yes, at 58 wins, it would be roughly a +7 or -3 range.

This is an important factor IF the Orioles ever do achieve the 82 wins to end the losing season streak. The '89 Orioles won 87 games but were not an 87-win team per se. They were more likely a 77-win team that overachieved by quite a bit. They deserved credit for that season but unfortunately they were also evaluated on that season. Hence, the Glenn Davis trade was doomed from the get-go and would have probably been doomed even if Davis hit 120 HRs in 1990-92.

There is also one other very basic factor involved and it doesn't get real messy with math either.

Most or all of the teams you implicitly mention as meeting your criterion and achieving 75 wins do not play in the AL East. The Orioles and two other teams have the dubious honor of playing a lopsided schedule against the two Brinks Trucks.

The Orioles quite simply need to do better in order to achieve the same from a wild card perspective. Winning the division ... uh, let's get to 82 wins first.

waspman,

I think I just became smarter having read your post. I predicted 66 wins for the O's last year. No decimals, no plus or minus ranges, no deviations, nothing nearly as smart as your sophisticated formula. Instead, I simply evaluated the product AndyMac put on the field and said 'this smells like no more than 66 wins'. I'd like to say I made a pretty good guess. Problem is, if you say this team will win 66 games every year, you'll always be close. So, looking into my crystal ball once again for 2010, I predict 66 wins.

Lets see the correct formula for predicting the Orioles 2010 record. Have the Yanks and Sox improved? Yes. Are the Orioles better now or about the same as last season? About the same. Yeah same record as last season give or take 5 wins thats my call.

I am surprised i haven't seen this before, but does anyone remember the record Detroit had 5 or 6 years ago and how they rebuilt. Didn't they go from possibly the the worst record ever in the modern game to world series in 3 years, with basically the same philosophy the Orioles are taking.

I still maintain that the biggest need now is to map out the bullpen situation. In the current plan you have:

Millwood - 225-240 innnings proj.
Guthrie - 215-228 innings proj.
Bergeson - 185-202 innings proj.
Tillman - 175-195 innings proj.
Matusz - 160-185 innings proj.

These are rough projections based on the Orioles existing program for building innings. Matusz is a year behind Tillman in minor league experience. Who is going to take up the innings?

If spring training started today, I would say there are only two roles defined.
Koji Uehara - longman or spot starter
Mike Gonzalez - closer

That leaves, Kam Mickolio, James Johnson, Cla Meredith, David Hernandez to be sorted through to be assigned roles in the pen.

I just don't see anyone else that should be there on opening day, but my question is whether this group is lacking a veteran arm? Mickolio and Hernandez are still young, but also the most most promising power arms in the bullpen. Does one of them start back at Norfolk in order to give the Orioles a slot to sign an experienced arm?

Eric-
Mickolio is a potential closer. He has played well since he was brought up. I don't see him, or Hernandez starting at AAA. The one player who may start at AAA is Tillman since he is the youngest out of the group (21 years old). I only see that happening if we sign another starting pitcher, which most likely won't happen. Also, I don't think you will see Koji as a long reliever or spot starter. I think that job would go to Hernandez. Koji had too many lingering injuries and I would hope the O's use him in short relief so he can last a whole season. If anything, we will need to find another long reliever other then Hernandez. I don't see Burken being that guy.

Ted-

I see your point about putting all your eggs in one basket with the prospects. I don't think they will all pan out either. But that is why we have to do it by numbers. So whoever does not pan out, the next one steps up. The problem we had before MacPhail took over was that our farm system was one of the worst in baseball. If a prospect did not pan out, no one could replace the void. That is not the case now. We have many prospects who can step up if one fails to meet expectations.

The problem I have is that it took a few years to build the farm system. We are just now getting to the point where we can see what we have been waiting for. There are no more real stop gap players like the ones we signed in the past. The roster is made up of many young players. We know who they are, so I won't get into names. My point is why sign big contracts to a free agent without knowing what they can do first? To me, it does not make sense to trade the farm for a single player (A.G) or sign a free agent to a huge contract that is not a real position of need (Holliday). This years free agent class is weak.

I am not worried or upset that we are not going for those two players. I would much rather see how the young guys do and give them one full season to evaluate them to see what we really need to contend in the future. I anticipate the young guys making strides and showing brilliance at times, while also making "rookie mistakes" as well. All I am saying is that they are here now. Why not give them a chance to see what they can do first before opening up the check book?

If after next season the O's fail to make a big signing, then I will be on the other side of the argument. I, too, am growing more impatient with the rebuilding plan. But I still want to see what these players can do first before crossing the line. I would love to see the young players continue to improve and then next off season sign that big free agent we need. I understand why everyone wants to win NOW, but one more year to see how they do is fine by me. After that, I will (gasp) be on the same side of the fence as wayne and many others. Only time will tell what AM really will do when the "time comes" to buy a big bat. One more off season for me and that is all I can take.

Frank,

Question: Is Baltimore a minor league city with a minor league team? So what we're suppose to do is let ALL the youngsters develop at the major league level.....All so we can see what we've got....All so we can further evaluate?

Interesting and begs the question: Why do the O's need a AAA team when they're players all develop in Baltimore?

Doug

dont forget then we trade them to the majors haha

exactly

Frank,
I like Mickolio and from what I have read, he is likely to be a front-runner for the back of the bullpen, but I look at him as a Kyle Farnsworth who tends to throw the fastball too straight. Mickolio will be as good as the emerging slider.

I don't know that I agree with you on Uehara. I think to maximize his arm, he needs to do it for shorter bursts. The bullpen is where he last had success and if a starter falters (they always do) they can give him a handful of starts.

I agree with you on the prospect of bringing in another starter...slim pickings and probably not a priority. However an injury risk that could be healthy in August would certainly help the younger arms which hit a wall around August 15. So Bedard or Sheets may not be a bad gamble.

I have also read that Wifredo Perez may be more a situational guy, so perhaps he also plays into the mix. I would imagine the matchups would be similar for the closer role as the past couple of years with Sherrill. To me Cla Meredith becomes a pretty important vet arm.

We will see.

Pete,

I'm obviously in the minority (maybe as a younger guy), but I find myself losing interest in this whole "I'm a better fan that you" debate that's been progressing over the last couple months. I'm not sure if there were Warehousers posting that have been drown out or if it's that some of those with hope feel there's nothing to enjoy about getting badgered about your beliefs and belief system. I watch and follow sports because it's fun. Things have broken down from playful banter among fans in response to the usually witty posts you make to basic bullying. It's not fun by any means anymore.

I'm all for demanding accountability from the Orioles, but I (nor anyone else here) needs to be told the right way to be a fan. If people are getting tired of "the plan" or whatever, then they'll get there when they're ready to. If people enjoy seeing the young guys who represent the future of the franchise come up then let them enjoy it. The same goes for those who will support this team no matter what they do. People are definitely well within their right to be disgusted with the last 12 years too.

There won't be a magical day where everyone agrees no matter how many names they get called and personal manifestos they read. This blog used to be great because we could all agree to disagree and that fun culture is gone. So congratulations to those of you who've managed to do that here.

James C, Come on now son. Please don't take things so seriously. I do agree with allot of things you say but the baltimore orioles mean a great deal to a great many people. To see how far they have fallen has been hard to watch for some fans. So so what if they're pushing the envelope a little. It certainly makes for good debate. I do know one thing, having been a fan for a very long time. That winning is much more fun than losing. And why not hold the organization accountable? Like any company, they're responsible for the good and the bad. Questioning the bad, even vehemently can be a good thing. Now lighten up young man and enjoy a lively debate.

James C, I agree with you, as I was unaware there was a book on what makes a great fan.

I used to love this blog, as it was always fun to come on and talk O's baseball, but lately there are 300 posts per topic with the majority of them calling someone and idiot or worse. I am hoping when the season gets closer, we can all go back to talking baseball and not all this conspiracy BS. The sad thing is there are some actual good baseball questions to Pete and other posters on here, but they are getting drowned out by the same people.

Birdland Todd, I very much agree with you and James C. I'm kinda new to this blog but quickly noticed how guys like Wayne and Gil get attacked relentlessly. The name calling, just because one disagrees with another's views is something I find very surprising and disturbing.

I got it everyone.......

Let's drop to #30 in payroll. Come on, let's do it!

If that happens, the Baltimore Orioles will be the absolute BEST at doing something. They'll be #30 out of 30! Has a nice ring to it, right?

And as a bonus...... As fans, we'd have the satisfaction of knowing ownership is saving tons of money.

Who's with me?

We're # 30!
We're # 30!

Barb,

I was here all summer when there was real lively debate as opposed to battling sides just insulting the intelligence of those they disagree with (or even threatening to meet and fight them in parking lots prior to Ravens games). It's gotten bitter and personal and it's not playful at all like it used to be. If that's what you enjoy, then that's fine. I just think it's sad to see what was a truly open forum break down into a personal agenda pushing rant-fest.