The O's signed 3 good players, but not good enough to climb in the standings of the ALeast. The need remains the same; 1 or 2 guys that will give us 30 to 40 homers. Until then we'll be on the outside looking up. Have a great Christmas and a happy and healthy new year

may i suggest, a better barometer is the
amount of season ticket sales.a re they up or down? are prices up or down?

sell the team angelos! Please!!!!

Team History
YEAR W L RS RA
2009 64 98 741 876
2008 68 93 782 869
2007 69 93 756 868
2006 70 92 768 899
2005 74 88 729 800
2004 78 84 843 830
2003 71 91 743 820
2002 67 95 667 773

Merry X-Mas!

If we were in any other division it would feel like we were closer to contending...lets face it, build a great farm system but you have to spend money too to compete...

Great piece, Pete. I took a month off from the blog to try to take a pragmatic view of where the Orioles really are in the rebuilding plan and to study all of the opinions on the blog. As you are aware, I have been a critic of Macphail because of his deliberate style and propensity to bargain basement shop for free agents.

I have to say that I am deeply disappointed in what Macphail has done so far this offseason, and the gap between the Orioles and Red Sox and Yankees has widened if anything.

Gonzalez is really a replacement for Sherill, Atkins is coming off a terrible season and his numbers have been in decline since the 2006 season, and Macphail got him because no one else wanted to spend the money and take the risk. Millwood would have been a good addition five years ago but he alone is not going to stabilize a rotation that is unproven and in flux.

The old song "Is that all there is?" comes to mind with what has happened this offseason so far, and I hope, for the fans sake, that Macphail has a lot more up his sleeve before opening day.

The roster, as currently composed, is probably good for 70 to 75 wins at best, and that is not good enough. The Orioles were supposed to be competitive this year and good next year in order for Macphail's plan to be on course. At this point, there is no real sign that either scenario is plausible.

Ahhh yes the plan to brainwash the fans into thinking losing is okay and sooner or later McFail will jump out of this burning plane and use his golden parachute becoming the new commissioner of baseball when ol buddy boy retires….that plan!

Not addressing team needs and just playing is not a plan.

Angelos has plenty of history of reaching for the brass ring. People seem to forget it's still the same owner that shelled out for Alomar, Palmeiro, Belle, and Tejada, the same owner who refused to raise the white flag in 1996 and wound up getting us our only two playoff appearances in the last 25 years.

Angelos' problems have been two-fold. First, he meddled, costing us a good manager and good GM and starting the decline into this mess we're in today. His fault, no doubt, and once upon a time I hated him for it.

Second, he went for the brass ring even when it was made out of... I don't know, something less than brass. I'm thinking of Segui, Cordova, and five or six middle relievers we paid way too much for. Too many players who were expensive but not good.

The evidence of the past few years indicates that both of these concerns have been addressed. MacPhail has pretty much had the freedom to do what he thought was best from a baseball perspective; I've seen no evidence of meddling from ownership. Beyond that, we haven't given out any crippling contracts to mediocre players since Andy came aboard. The major offers we've made have been to guys who were worth it; you can't blame ownership for Teixiera not accepting it.

Schmucker is right, we won't know anything until it comes time to pay the price for success, possibly as soon as next winter. All we know for now is that he won't pay the price for mediocrity, and that's a good thing. Like it or not, the O's (and 27 other teams) have limitations; they just have to play in the division with the 2 guys who don't. They have to be smart with the resources they have, and I think they have gotten *much* smarter as an organization.

The image of Angelos as a bottom-5 owner is stale. It may not be wrong, but it's certainly in need of fresher evidence than what happened 5-10 years ago. What's happening now is the right way to build a franchise for long-term success. I can wait a little longer.

The Orioles are not even in the AL East. Many games at Camden Yards are away games for the Orioles they are a joke and are going nowhere!

Essentially little has been done. Millwood's a one year stop gap. I like Millwood, but let's face it, beyond this year he's gone. Atkins is coming off a .229 hitting year who once showed potential (shades of Jay Gibbons). The only signing I was excited about was Gonzalez, and basically he's just replacing Sherill. AM is basically hoping Snyder and Bell are the real deal.

But AM also said it is now time to start measuring success not on potential for wins, but actual wins. Under AM's regime we've made progress on the farm ,but have actually lost more games than the previous GM regimes.

It bothers me to see the Yankees always willing to sign free agent after free agent ot improve their team while we sit on the sidelines and essentially concede the year. Ken Rosenthal said as much in a recent article that the Jay's, O's and Rays may as well concede the year.

I can't support that kind of thinking, but AM could have risked to maybe pay a little more for that impact bat like acquiring Miguel Cabrera, or even trying to address the long term SS situation by perhaps trading for Wood from LAA or a dozen other things.

I just feel AM is fearful of taking a huge risk of making a mistake. I can understand that but the improvement of thiws team is like arteriosclerosis. Slow, and I'l lbe dead before the O's are .500.

A lot of people feel we've made improvements. We won 64 games last year. Even if we win 6 more games that's only 70 wins, something we managed to do even in years 2004-2006. I'd like to see .500 this year, but that would require an improvement of 17 wins. With the acquisitions we've acquired, and the improvements to the Yankees Red Sox and Rays, we're not even close to improving 17 wins. It's quite, quite frustrating.

Take a gamble AM. Even if it hurts a bit.

Gil:

First off, welcome back. Regarding your comment that "The Orioles were supposed to be competitive this year", who said that and when. I don't remember AM ever being that specific. I googled around and couldn't find anything specific that attests to that, rather more general comments about the need to tear down and rebuild with young talent.

Celebrating a 50th Birthday post today.

The Orioles may better but without a difference-maker or two, they will continue to muddle along in obscurity even in their own home town.

Here is some perspective.

If the Orioles and Yankees both did nothing this offseason, the Orioles would close the gap some on the Yankees because the Orioles' players are increasing in value (youth) and the Yankees players are decreasing in value.

Even if they did nothing, the Orioles would improve because of maturation. In addition to natural maturation, they have 3 players that are better than any they lost. It is also likely that they will sign at least 1 or 2 more free agents that will be more valuable than anything lost.

I think that the Yankees only have stood still (if I'm optimistic towards them) or have reduced their decline (if I'm pessimistic) by their trades.

I'm really surprised at Rosenthal. Wasn't he at the Sun when the Orioles had their sudden decline in the late 90's? Personally, that this the situation I envision for the Yankees within the next 3 years. They remind me a lot of the '97 Orioles where you have a lot of established stars (synonym for old players) and not many rising stars.

I don't believe the Yankees collapse will be as drastic as the Orioles as they are smart enough and have sufficient prestige and resources to turn it around much sooner, but their collapse looks inevitable to me, whether it happens in 2011 or 2012.

Boston is the team Baltimore needs to fear more for the future, unless it adopts the Yankee way and actually gets Gonzalez for the bulk of their future stars.

AM is a sneaky guy. He never really gave a timetable on when the Orioles would contend. I think many people just figured we were on a 3-5 year plan but with the way these other divisional rivals are stockpiling all AM will do is keep the seat warm for the next guy. We do not know if he fixed the team because he is on paper a loser in the major leagues with the Orioles. All that other talk about him fixing the minor league teams and got us great prospects is moot because we are just the same as before he got here.

The question isn't whether PA is willing to spend wildly. The question is whether or not he's even willing to spend wisely.

JohnBoy

We know the answer to that.... Just look at the team!

The famous, "... if we were two players away it would be worth doing." Guess what -- if we get Holliday and trade for Adrian Gonzalez - we are competitive - even in "the East!" I will go back to getting tickets - as will thousands of O fans.

Q:

I don't believe that any GM trying to rebuild a team would be so specific as to pinpoint the year he thought he'd accomplish the goal. I stand to be corrected, but I don't think AM did that. Can we be competitive in 2010. Yes, if our young kids step up, particularly our young pitchers.

Even a negative critic of the plan like myself can't argue with this article. Finally pete you set the facts straight and win or lose i can deal with it. The 3 moves that we have made so far absolutely make us a better ball club then last year , but even you know that eventually we have to make some high price acqusitions if we are going to contend. Even that might not be enough to compete with boston and the yankee's in this current structure.

I can understand the negative views that are too often expressed on this site, I really can. It's been a terrible ten years, especially for this aging, lifetime O's fan. I do think, however, that the O's are significantly better going into this season than they were last year.

First, does anyone remember the horrid strating 5 the Os had going into last year? Egad! Millwood is steady and will eat innings. He will also serve as a mentor to a young staff. Millwood, Bergesen, Matuz, Guthrie and Tillman are are tremendous improvement If the youngsters improve they could be one of the best 1-5 staffs around.

We'll have to see how the bullpen does and perhaps their record will depend to a great deal on how well the starters perform.

The outfield is the best it's been in many, many years. There are four starters there when one considers how well Pie preformed at the end of last year. The more he played the better he became. I predict that Reimold will blossom this year.

The infield is a problem. Second is great with one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball. SS is steady in the field and that's ok. Atkins is a gamble but if nothing else he's a placeholder for Bell. The O's need a power hitter at first to bat fourth. They may hae a very good first baseman in Aubrey as he hit very well in his brief time with the O's and he's an excellent fielder. However, the O's need a numner 4 hitter and Aubrey isn't that. I encourage AM to trade 3-4 top prospects for either A. Gonzalez or Prince Feilder. Either one hitting fourth in this lineup would make the Os an instant contender as soon as the young starters mature. I realize it wouold hurt, but Tillman, Snyder, Arrietta and Hernandez ought to get one of them. Te cupboard of pitchers in the minor woud not be bare. Uheara, Patton, Erbie and Berkin would all be possible candidates to fill Tillman's spot in the rotation.

If the O's don't trade for one of thhe two they will have no proven number 4 hitter and the pitching would have to improve markedly this year to help them contend.

My point is, the Os have much more realistic hope to improve this year than they did last year. I agree AM needs to pull the trigger on a big time number 4 hitter but even if he dosen't the coming campaign has a better chance to demonstrate significant improvement then any of the last 12 years.

Come on people....you have blinders on...the O's have been one of the most active teams in aquiring players.

I love the 3 year decline lines for Atkins...when in reality he had one bad year last year...he's worht the 1 year contract with the flexibility to still find a 1B/3B. Plus he is only 30 if we strike paydirt with him. Gonzalez replaces Sherill which is exactly what we needed. The entore bullpen will be better for it. Milwood is not a stud but a proven vet who we can count on to eat innings and keep the stress off the pen.

We are giving short 1 year contracts to fill immediate needsa until we can reap the awards of the farm system.

Who exactly is out there that we want to bust the bank for?

It will be in the next few seasons to strike on the big FA or trade to put us back into contention but now is not the time....but soon. I think Pete will do it.

This team is built to compete in 2011-2014 or so. They might surprise us, and arrive early. More likely, they improve a little bit at a time, while more and more of the young guys come through.

But 2010 should be much better than 2009. Full seasons from improving Matusz and Tillman. Wieters and Jones continue to improve. Reimold and Pie - heck, I'd be happy if Reimold can repeat his 2009, and Pie his second half.

Late in the year, we get to see Josh Bell and maybe Jake Arrieta. Maybe Brandon Snyder, too.

Atkins probably won't be worse than Mora / Wigginton, and could be much much better. Milwood should give us 200 solid innings, which may not be exciting, but the team could really use some average performance from the starting pitchers.

Someone will do worse than expected, of course - if you roll 24 dice, you get some 1s. But this team, overall, should do meaningfully better than last year's team. The pitching staff alone might be 100 runs better, and the offense should improve as well.

All that will still only get them to fourth place, probably. But they're building in the right direction.

I agree with you Pete. We are a better organization today than we were 3 years ago. We just aren't a better team. I'm really having a hard time looking fwd to more losing. Does anyone even see mediocrity coming on the horizon. After analyzing Die hard's entry 2004 looks like a wonderful season. Does anyone believe we can get to that this year or next?

Prof, Steve D, bob c, good points. All the rest, not so much.

As Pete says, no one can argue that this is the same organization now as it was three years ago. And the image of Angelos as a horrible owner is getting stale.

Many people are agonizing over the Yankees getting Javy Vasquez, saying its a case of the rich getting richer.

Sure they picked up a nice pitcher, one with an inconsistent history but gave up a needed OFer. With Melky gone, Damon not wanted back, Jackson gone to Detroit, and apparently Bay and Holliday off their radar, who plays in their OF aside from Granderson? Reports are they want to trade Swisher and there isn't anything of consequence in the system. ARod is 35, Jeter 36, Posada 37, Pettite 38. Joba still hasn't shown he can be counted on, Burnett is a DL visit waiting to happen, so is Nick Johnson. And how long can Sabathia abuse his arm before it falls off? Don't be so quick to anoint the Yankees as a another dynasty.

And the Red Sox have their own problems. A huge hole in left, a declining DH, problems at third, another SS, an ancient ex-Mariner and a FA pitcher who can hardly be counted on to be a staff ace.

Yeah, the Yankees and BoSox might be ahead of the curve now, but they both have serious issues. And the Orioles? They have people in position now who can learn and develop and in time, turn into a very good team. Would anybody really rather be the Yankees or Sox and not the Orioles going forward.

As Iron Mike says, the past is history and the future is a mystery. The guy that listed the past several years? Who cares? This is a different team. Never in the past 12 years have the Orioles have the quality young players they have now. I defy anyone to say different. Yeah, they might only win 70 this year, but I believe it will be 70 on the road to 90 plus.

And when the time comes, every indication is that Angelos will shell out the money, he has done it before. The key is too make the right decision. We have all seen how huge contracts can hamstring a team, AM's job is to see that doesn't happen. I would love to see Bay here or A Gonzo, but not at what it would take to bring them here.

And as for the Orioles muddling along in relative obscurity even in their hometown, well, that says more about the hometown than about the Orioles, doesn't it???

Get behind this team, people, things
are looking up! You just gotta believe.

Hi Bob C.,

Thanks I am glad to come back. Bob, incremental steps are necessary to build a winning team, to be sure. But at some point, the team needs to begin to compete in order to be in a position to take that next step. I believe that Pete himself has said that this year the team needs to at least compete, and Macphail has talked about Trembley being measured on wins and losses in 2010.

To me, it is just not plausible for the team to be in a situation that they are not trying to compete in the AL East, and I'm afraid that's where 2010 is headed.

Surely you are not inferring that the Orioles should just throw away another season for the sake of the "plan", are you? I have said all along that the team could rebuild and try to compete at the same time. In my opinion it is not a zero sum game.

What do you think?

It is terrible how bad sports ownership can hold a city and fan base hostage, namely Peter Angelos, Al Davis, and Daniel Snyder, just to name a few. Congress should change the way sports teams are operated. Allowing bad owners to run teams is as bad as allowing evil people to rule countries such as of North Korea, Iran and Cuba.

I think people on here have the idea that we can just call up the Padres, throw a few players at them and get Gonzalez. I read that the asking price was Wieters and Tillman (I believe I read it on FoxSports) Would any of you make that deal?
Give this team a chance to improve. You guys all seem to think that these players are as good as they are going to get...they are just kids. None of our core guys is over 26 years old! We just signed Atkins and he is our 3rd oldest position player! (Wiggy and Roberts are older). We have a young team. I know we have been waiting for a winner for 12 years, but if you guys can't see that we are in a MUCH better situation now than we were 3 years ago, you are nuts. I am not just talking about the farm system either. Our major league team is miles ahead of where we were talent-wise since the day McPhail arrived. The talent is there. All we need is another season of experience for a lot of these guys.

One important thing to remember is that as this team matures this year and this talent continues their development, Baltimore will be a lot more attractive of a free agent destination. Continue to build the foundation of a stable organization and it will be much easier to sign the guys you want in the future.

Remember, we don't want to be one year wonders like the Rays, we want to re-establish our identity as a good organization. I believe Andy McPhail is doing that. We just need a little more patience...

Gil:

Maybe what we need to do is define what we mean by competitive. If it means 75 wins and being a consistent tough out for the Yanks and Bosox, (like not losing 15 of 18 to the Bosox like we did last year) then I think we have a good chance of that. If it means 81+ wins minimum, the odds are a little longer and we'll need things to break the right way with our kids. If it means approaching 90 wins then we'd best be advised not to hold our breath. I don't see that until 2011 or 2012.

What does competitive mean to you.

One upgrade not being made is the manager. I don't have much confidence in Dave Trembley, but as an O's fan I wish him all the best. I certainly hope a manager with previous success at the major league level will be considered if or when Trembley needs to be replaced.

In general, I like how MacPhail is handling the re-building of this club, but I really expect to see some improvement (10+ more wins?) this coming season over 2009. By 2011 we really should be a winning ball team (82+ wins total).

Peter,

The lack of a true clean-up hitter weakens the rest of the line-up. The addition of a true clean-up hitter enhances the rest of the line-up.

I love having Andy in the GM chair. The club is getting better from Rookie Ball to the Majors. I have no gripes about any of his moves. But we are close right now and adding that young star who to the middle of the line-up who also flashes some leather is vital. Teixiera was the one that got away last year. Adrian Gonzalez looks like the real deal and apparently can be had for the right package. If they are asking for too much then so be it. But I just hope we are going hard after him.

Have a great holiday season!

Obviously they had to rebuild the farm system and obviously in the past Angelos did spend money. People do change and it is possible that Angelos realizes he can make money without spending a lot of money, and that spending a lot of money doesn't guarantee you will win.

I guess my point is that just because someone did something in the past doesn't mean they will ever do it again.

I think the W-L totals speak for them selves. The Orioles have won FEWER games for each of the last 5 yrs. Honestly if they don't win 70+ this year, then I think it is fair to move McPhail on to his next job. I don't think expecting 70 wins is unrealistic.

You heard it here first: If the Yankees and the Bosox don't sign a big hitter to their lineups then I won't be surprised to see their run production fall by about 10% this year. It will be hard for them to replace the run production and clutch hitting of Damon and Matsui. Jeter, Riviera and Posada have to grow old at some point. Likewise, it'll be hard to replace Jayson Bay for Boston. Both teams have improved their pitching though.

If the O's sign Delgado and he has a productive year then the O's have a chance to be respectable this year. And by respectable I mean more than 85 wins. They're going to surprise a few with the strength of their bullpen. Koji, Mickolio, Johnson wouldn't let many leads slip away.

I think AM has done a great job this offseason. When you consider it was a poor FA market there was not a lot he could do, put did what needed to be done. A solid closer will add 5 wins right now. I think you will see our starting pitching improve dramtaticly this season which will have the knock on effect of using our bullpen less, which will only make them more effective. While I would like to see them sign Holiday I don't think he would be a great fit since he would block both Reimold and Pie and tie up a huge chunk of salary. I personally would rather see them tie up Wieters and Jones then go after a big 1B next offseason when there are quite a few above average 1B available. I would also like to see them get Chapman as I think he could be a #1 starter in the future if we groom him right. This season is going to be great, lets go O's.

Hey Lancione, I thought you were finished with this blog. Couldn't stay away huh?

What all the doom and gloomers keep failing to remember is just how bad the prior GM's of this team were. Flanagan, and prior to that Flanabeattie were horrible. They probably set us back 10 years. You don't recover from that in 2, 3 or even 5 years in most cases.

McPahil is focusing on 2011 and beyond and I'm fine with that. All of the proposed trades in here are like the ones sent to me in my fantasy football league. You toss around 4 average names for Chris Johnson? Just because it's a 4-for-1, heck no. Do you think the Padres want 4 or 5 marginal minor leaguers for Gonzalez? No.

I have one more year left in me to wait and honestly, I don't think it will be as bad in 2010. If Matusz, Wieters, Reimold, Jones, Markakis & Roberts alone don't get you to be interested, then just wait for Bell and the rest to get here in 2011.

I'll take Andy McPhail and his plan over Flanagan and his any day of the week.

Just wait guys.. This team will lose close to 100 and people will turn.. its coming!

Pete could you give an evaluation of Andy's offseason progress compared to the other GM'S. Not just the AL east but the Whole AL?????

Tony P in AZ:

Nice well thought out post.

The free agent market this year is suspect at best.

Out of Keith Law's top 50 FA's... this is who is left that the O's could target:
29 Adam LaRoche B
35 Carlos Delgado B
36 Jose Valverde A
40 Vladimir Guerrero B
41 Fernando Rodney B

All will cost a draft pick and all are iffy at best.

Rebuilding the organization top to bottom as MacPhail has is the only way to get FA's here in the future: wise FA acqusitions, Asian scouting, new spring training home, better drafts, a loaded farm system... all of which should lead to wins.

Pete,

We can't even hold ground with NY and Boston let along gain on them. Milwood is an upgrade but Atkins and Gonzalez are really nothing more than a pust to Mora and Sherrill when it comes to production. Andy sits and watches the market perculate while the Yankees and Red Sox continue to make moves to improve. He's jailed by the fact he may trade a suspect who may turn into something that he's unwilling to deal for an All Star level player.

The plan seems to be very Syd Thriftish (do nothing and hope players develop) and will no way get us closer to a playoff spot. Fact of the matter is you can both develop talent and acquire quality free agents. Not one or the other.
We'll once again accept a welfare check from MLB which puts more $$$ in Big Pete's pocket. What happened to all the money MASN (Mr Angelos & Sons Network) was suppose to pour into the team. Our payroll will once again be around $60 million and I believe only onc team with a payroll near that made the playoffs last year.

Question to you Pete.... Just how many years is McPhail to be given before he's held accoutable for wins and loses?

Tony P, no I wouldn't trade Weiters and Tillman for Gonzalez but I would trade Tillman, Arrieta, Snyder and Hernandez or something like that for him. That's not calling up the Padres and making an offer. That's a serious offer they would have to think about. Three highly thought of pitching propects and an equally highly thought of first base prospect can't be easily dismissed. You don't trade Weiters for anyone. Period.

There are just a few first basemen who are number 4 hitters. Pouluez (sp), Fielder, Gonzalez and Tex. One and four aren't going anywhere so it's down to Fielder and Gonzalez. In the post steroids era these guys are as rare as it gets. A lineup og Roberts, Markakis, Jones, A. Gonzalz, Weiters, Reimold, Atkins, Scott/Wiggington and Iztaurus is competitive. A starting five of Millwood, Bergesen, Matuz, Guthrie and Patton or someone else is competitive. No pain, no gain. Or we could keep it as is, put Aubrey on first and hit Weiters fourth and hope he continues to be as good as he was at the end of last year.

Great post Larry

Where is all this money going and the teams payroll is so low... Its just very odd.. Revenue sharing is supposed to make teams competitive not for fat cat owners to put in Swiss bank accounts.

Until the balanced schedule is restored (and the interleague play gimmick ended), the O's, Rays, and Jays will be pishing into the wind trying to beat the Yankees and Red Sox. Why? Because those two teams can afford to make expensive mistakes. If they sign a big name free agent (or two, or three) who don't work out, they can sign more, and/or trade for expensive players mid-season. The O's, Rays, and Jays can't afford to miss, but baseball is not a game of sure things, and expensive mistakes or injuries will happen. With a balanced schedule, at least the O's, Rays, and Jays wouldn't have to play 18 games each vs. Yankees and Red Sox, while no other team plays them nearly as often.

I don’t care what anybody says about only 4 commercials being played on MASN the channel does make money for having deals with all the cable providers. It is the decision of Peter Angelos to use that money and the money he receives from revenue sharing for baseball operations and he simply refuses to do so. That’s why he is in the running for worst owner of all time. Snyder and Davis don’t even come close.

Bob C,

To me the definition of competitive is hanging around the .500 mark and not folding after the All Star Break. I don't think that is too much to ask.

Many people on this blog are betting the farm{no pun intended} on our prospects, many of who likely will never have an impact at the Major League level due to injuries, Peter Principle, etc.

I don't think the fans should accept Macphail's nebulous rebuilding theory without some monikers along the way. Even today on the blog people are speculating that 2011 and 2012 will be our time. Based on what? None of the pitchers that we have developed have won 10 games in the Big Leagues.

Bob, it's not Macphail's fault that the Orioles have been so bad for so long, but he is in a position to make sure that the fans finally get some relief in 2010 and not just promises that one day the team may be good. He had a chance to add two front line starters and a big right handed bat, but so far has settled for sloppy seconds. I guess what I am saying is that planning to lose so that some day the team may win is a 50/50 proposition at best.

OriAl,
The Orioles could have a market just as big if not bigger than the Red Sox. They could be as competitive as the Sox if they wanted to. The Orioles had all of Maryland, Virginia, DC parts of PA, NC etc. They simply chose not to sell their product properly. Blaming baseball for this mess is unfair. Look at the bad teams in baseball its not location it is bad ownership. The Orioles have major advantages and don’t bother.

European Prof, Steve D, Paul in Boston, Tim S, Ken, Tony P, Sudhir, Ben, and Rob K,

Agree with each of you on pretty much everything; encouraging to see like minded fans. From the assessments of the O's talent being the "improvement" needed for 2010, to the Yankees and Red Sox teams, I agree whole heartily.

KEN: I think you're dead on with the Yankees. They're old, and will be relying on aging stars to continue their dominance. Maybe it's the media pressure in NYC, but they're making moves that "appease" rather than "produce" this year. The Sox....they too don't have a solid 3-4 hitter.

Yes, the O's need a middle of the order bat, HOWEVER, before making trades with un-rippened talent, I'd rather see the 2nd/3rd years outta some of the Key guys. I think Wieters will live up to the outrageous hype this year, start to look like a 3-4 hitter. Jones, Riemold, Markakis could each be 3 hitters with another year of playing.

Personally, I've been an advocate of letting the Kids play this year out, so that in next years FA market, the O's have a better idea of what type of talent they have on hand, and can make a splash with better data on the players already in house.

As far as making Trades goes, I'd rather the O's play it out in the Free Agent market, thus holding onto the prospects. As was said before, "prospects are just that,...prospects" and while that is entirely true, SOME of them will live up to the pedigree, other not so much. Trading those guys, you never know who will pan out. "Quantity of quality" is an ideal position to be in, and the O's are FINALLY at that point. If the right deal can be made, great. But Adrain Gonzales would be a 2 year deal, and cost 3-5 big prospects. Does getting Adrain Gonzalez mean a top finish in the AL East? No. Are the O's better off? sure. But you can only make that assessment because the prospects haven't done anything. Anyone wanna be the M's trading for Bedard? Thought so.

There's a hue and cry for a big bat or two in the middle of the lineup, and sure, adding one or two wouldn't hurt (but not at the price of Wieters and Tillman).

But don't we already have a big bat arriving in the middle of the lineup: Wieters.

OK, he did not produce offensively throughout 2009 the way we might have liked, but he came on big at the end of the season, clearly growing into the big leagues, and he's delivered power at every level he's played.

Am I the only one who thinks this guy is one of the big bats in the middle of the lineup that the Os need?

I will say it again. It is the pitching that has been the problem for the O's. They have had the worst ERA in the league for many years. Now that we have 3 young pitchers in Bergensen, Matusz, and Tillman ready to start the season in the majors, we should be much more competitive. We all can agree that Bergensen was the most impressive. Matusz came on very strong at the end and should be in the running for ROY. Tillman is still raw and will continue to improve throughout the year. Guthrie and Millwood will provide stability as the younger pitchers mature. All three of the young pitchers have top of the rotation potential. We have seen glimpses of it. This could be the year where our pitching improves dramatically. It is the pitching that will get us over .500. The hitting has been just fine and our runs per game are above average, even without a 40 HR a year guy. We have Reimold, Weiters, Markakis, and Jones who should all come close to 30 HR's next season if they can stay healthy.

*snore*

New Mex, when I look at Weiters I can see he could be a .300 30 100 hitter. Last year he focused on defense first and once he mastered that ( did anyone notice how much he improved!) he turned his attention to becoming a better hitter and he ended the year very strongly in average and power. So yes, I could see him at number 4 but that's a guess. I'd rather trade for A. Gonzalez because he's proven and bat Weiters 5th. It will cost some prospects but thanks to AM we have more available than we need to get this trade done.

The thing that concerns me regarding McPhail is that he tends to be satisfied with small victories. Those Twins teams he developed had nice players, but you need at least a few superstar, Hall-of-Famer types to win. If Reimhold, for example, becomes a 20-HR, .290 hitter, that's nice but not good enough. He can't settle for those small victories, and I worry that he does.

Still, I think the Orioles' financial situation is such that they have to do what the Rays did, and catch lightning in a bottle with the simultaneous development of several young players. It's not a plan without risks - essentially you have to get very lucky, and the gains will be fleeting, since the team cannot afford to keep the stars they do develop, but it's the only shot they have. Even if it doesn't work, if the young players don't blossom at the same time, it's still the only shot they have, unless they fix this damn game so it's not like European soccer, where the Manchester United/Yankees/Red Sox just spend the money they need to win and the other teams pick up the scraps.

Just watch, with the Melky-Vazquez trade the Yanks are clearing the decks for Holliday or Bay. How can we compete against that?

Pete,
Some numbers to look at to show how the O's can and should improve this year. For those who say we haven't done anything to improve.

Last year Guthrie was 10-17, Matusz 5-2, Tillman 2-5, Bergesen 7-5. Others 18-34 (I tried to get those who started but may not have all of them) That is a total of 42-63 (105 games). If we estimate totals for this year Guthrie 10-8, Matusz 13-8, Tillman 10-8, Bergesen 13-8, Millwood 13-9 That's 59-41 (100 games) That's a 17 game pickup and an 81-81 season. We SHOULD be better this year because our starters have the experience of last year and we have a pitcher who should add 12-15 wins in Millwood.

Hopefully we have a closer that can actually close and a setup guy who doesn't blow the lead. We should have Reimold for a full year and Atkins should be no worse then Melvin and hopefully a bit better. Wieters will have a full year and should add to last years total RBIs. This IS part of the plan. The growth of the players you have now.

2010 Projections:

NLCS (Phillies, Dodgers)
ALCS (Yankees, Angels)

World Series (Yankees - Dodgers)

World Series Champs: NY Yankees

Dishonorable mention: Orioles (Last place in AL). McPhail gets fired in lame attempt to give fans hope for future. Orioles sign Barry Bonds (coming out of retirement) and Andy Pettite. The fans are ecstatic! Angelos unveils MASN3, sports network that plays historic Yankmee games 24/7.

Go Ow's !

WAIT AND SEE??!?!?!?!? sheesh, that's like watching a baseball game! oh, waitaminnit.

Look twa said something I have been harping on to my buddies. Throw a slightly above market value offer at Matt Holliday. If he bites, then you can plug him into left field and use Reimold, Snyder, Scott and 2 young pitchers to attempt to land Gonzalez. I love Reimold, but he isn't Matt Holliday. Face it, that's about what it would take. Hell try to get them to throw in Kouzmanoff, they want to move him anyway. If they do, give them Wiggy too that way they have a vetran backup for the young 3B they want to bring up in SD. Kouz is better than Atkins. Right away, offer Gonzo the same deal as Holliday. Bring in Bedard on an incentive laden deal. Have him ready to pitch by the all star break. That's the equivilent of landing an ace at the trade deadline. I know this is a pipe dream, but it involves aquiring two bats. That's it, two bats. This isn't rocket science. It's very doable. We O's fans deserve a competitive product. I know Pete will say this and that about my idea, but a lineup with Roberts, Jones, Markakis, Holliday, Gonzalez, Wieters, Atkins/Kouzmanoff(wishful thought), Izturis, and anyone who we can find to hit 20 homers at dh is a legit AL East lineup. The only question I would have for Pete is do you think my trade scenario for Gonzo would work assuming we had Holliday already.

Pete -- Correct me if I'm wrong, but at the end of the season wasn't the buzz coming from the Warehouse about how the Orioles needs (among other things) a big run-producing (preferably right-handed) bat in the middle of the line-up to protect Nick Markakis?

Is Garrett Atkins supposed to be that guy? I can't take that seriously. Here's a guy who struggled mightily for the Rockies, even losing his job due to non-production, but the O's were willing to take a flyer on him, hoping that Terry Crowley can help him correct "fixable" problems in his swing.

Now, the O's certainly could have found someone they didn't need to fix, but I'll concede that Crow might be able to get Atkins hitting again. It's still going to be tough for the third baseman to switch leagues and go up against tough AL East pitching. Still, he's shown he could hit in the past, so it's not out of the question.

Yes, Atkins averaged 25 HR and 100+ RBI in his three best years for Colorado, but there is absolutely no way of knowing whether he'll be able to rebound from an awful 2009.

In other words, if Atkins is supposed to be the clean-up hitter (something he wasn't for the Rockies and for which he might not really be suited), then Andy MacPhail is rolling the dice rather than getting a sure thing to fill that lineup slot.

And I say "if" because we know MacPhail's said the O's aren't done yet in making deals, so there's still a chance he might get someone else.

Atkins, in any case, isn't the right answer at cleanup, that's for sure, and it would be a cruel trick played on Oriole fans if this is the "big bat" they were promised a few months ago.

NewMex -- I agree with you about Matt Wieters one day becoming a big bat in the center of the lineup. The question is when will that "one day" happen?

He could blossom in the spring and put up monster numbers starting on opening day or it could take him a couple of years to grow into that role (I'm thinking sooner than later, but in baseball there are no guarantees of this sort). Reimold is also capable of being a huge bat for the Orioles.

For anyone who doesn't want to see any improvement, this is the most concise way I can put it. Starting rotation:

2009 2010

1. Guthrie 1. Millwood
2. Koji 2. Guthrie
3. Simone 3. Bergesen
4. Hendrickson 4. Matusz
5. Eaton 5. Tillman

Sure 3 or the five guys in 2010 don't have much experience, but I think saying that's a huge improvement would be an understatement.

We shouldn't be afraid to root for all these young guys because we're scared that we might turn out to be wrong.

wow, pete, this is a very busy blogting topic. My 2 cents, our current players have the ability to step it up pitching and hitting for power and average. the red sox and yankees aren't always this good. sooner or later, the the jeters and ramirezs will age and be difficult to replace. i honestly think the sox are on that downward trend now, not much left on the roster from the world series teams. the yankees farm system is so depleted, they either have to pay the available free agents top dollar or trade away a world series experienced player to get something of equal value in return. honestly, for all the heartache over the past 20+ years, this is the most "potential" talent the Os have had on the roster. the pitchers need to turn the corner this year.

Welcome back Gil and blancione (it's been a while since I've seen you too),

As the team stands right now, I think "the Plan" is a bust.

Then again, how many 2010 regular season games start on 12/24/09? None? OK then.

I also think if we were introducing Adrian Gonzalez this week, it'd be a mistake. Obviously their initial price is too high. Not because it's apparently rumored to include Wieters, but because no one else has stepped up and snagged him either. The price will come down as the reality of the situation hits the Padres that they will never see an offer like the one from the Orioles again as another season ticks away on his contract.

I also tend to think Boston's plan to bring Gonzalez in hit a snag when Mike Lowell became untradable. There is now no hole at 3B to move Youklis to and Ortiz is already their $13MM DH.

So while I'm optimistic, I'm not yet fully satisfied either. I just happen to think there's still 2 months to make some moves and judging a team that's not finalized is a waste of time in my opinion.

Did the O's even try to get Troy Glaus?

1. Guthrie 1. Millwood
2. Koji 2. Guthrie
3. Simone 3. Bergesen
4. Hendrickson 4. Matusz
5. Eaton 5. Tillman

until we see progress and Ws from this new rotation it looks about = to me.

I think we went after Atkins to help draw Holliday here.
It's a foregone conclusion that Josh Bell will take over at 3B within the next year or so. I'm not as sure about Snyder.
In Atkins, you've got a guy who can play 1B as well as 3B in order to accomodate the addition of Bell.

If I had to trade one of our outfielders in order to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, it would be Adam Jones.
I think Reimold and Pie should be untouchable, and of course, Markakis already is.
But I have a feeling that Jones is always going to be injury-prone.

I would trade Jones along with Scott, Johnson, Hernandez, and another lesser known pitching prospect for Adrian.
If Holliday were to come here too (which I think is more possible than most people think), then we should go after Bedard to round out our rotation with another lefty.
We could end up starting 2010 with:
Gonzalez 1B
Roberts 2B
Izturis SS
Atkins 3B
Holliday LF
Pie CF
Markakis RF
Weiters C
Reimold DH, LF, CF, RF

Bergesen
Bedard
Millwood
Matusz
Tillman

Gonzalez
Uehara
Hendrickson
Guthrie
Meredith
Mickolio
Sarfate

Backups could be Moeller, Turner, Wigginton, and Montanez.

I'd put that team up against any team in the AL East.

Don't you think it make no sense to spend big dollars on a player if the team/pitching isn't ready to challange for a playoff spot. Doesn't it make sense to let the young player mature to the point where they can play competitive ball with the AL leaders. At that point go out and spend money to put your team over the top. At that point trade some prospects that are blocked at the MLB level to complete your team. Andy Mcphail has a good plan. He's done what he said he was going to do. Look at the farm system, that's example #1 of where the team is headed. It seems the O's finally have the right person in place to lead the franchise. I don't know how anyone can argue with that.

Hey James C.,

Yeah, you are right. It's the dead of winter. Do you remember that famous line John Riggins used after ending a one year holdout with the Redskins nearly 30 years ago?

He rarely spoke to the press. He pulled into training camp on his Harley and told the gathered press, "I am going to say one thing to you all of you and this is my first and last comment for the year."

"I'm bored, I'm broke, and I'm back"

That about sums it up for me.

I think the one thing to consider in judging MacPhail's offseason is to take into account the number of question marks that this upcoming season will answer. Given the number of young pitchers we have effectively starting their first full year in the bigs it's really not possible to know how they will perform. Are Matusz and Tillman future aces, or #2 and #3 starters at best? Is Bergeson an ML pitcher? Also, considering Jones and Markakis have pretty much proven themselves, what will Reimold and Pie do to prove they can be reliable year in and year out. Can Matt Wieters serve as a number 3 or 4 hitter in a MLB lineup? It just seems like when the O's finally do go to the free agent market and outbid the competition to bring in a big free agent signing, they better make sure they spend the money on the right guy - whether that is a hitter (OF or IF??) or a starting pitcher. You wouldn't want them to blow it all on Holliday if they have plenty of good outfield options on hand already, and want that money to go after a true ace to the pitching staff next offseason (Lee, Becket, Vazquez all FA). They should know alot more about what they can expect from their current players next year at this time. If they don't sign a BIG free agent next year then I think O's fans have every right to be up in arms. But I think right now it is still to unclear where exactly is the best place to spend that money.

Looks like you struck a nerve with this one Pete, all sorts of people posting today.
I say so far so good. I think the three moves AM as made so far are decent, low risk moves that will marginally improve the team over last year. I also think we can count on some improvement just from the youngsters maturing. Weiters and Reimold could both substantially up their offense next season and the pitching staff looks to get better as well even without Millwood.
So, I'm already more optimistic about next spring.
Having stated that however, there is no doubt that the O's are in desperate need of a genuine power threat in the middle of the lineup, and until we get one nobody else in the division is going to give us a second thought.
I'll be content with 81 wins in 2010, which is perhaps possible with the team as now constructed, but would require a lot of good things falling into place all at once. Instead of depending on all that luck, AM needs to get us at least one big bat. If he does then I'll head into ST expecting to see the O's become "competitive" in the sense of being at least potentially a winning team. As for actually competing head to head against the rest of the East, I can wait another year, even two, as long as I see steady progress. This season will tell me if such steady progress is a real possibility or not.

I agree with Travis on this. You don't spend the money in free agency until it makes sense. Probably makes more sense next year or the year after. I don't believe getting say Lackey and/or Gonzalez would have put this team over the top.

The other thing to consider is: what profit are the Orioles making exactly? In other words could they afford to have $160 million in annual salaries or are they playing with Confederate money? I'm guessing the low gate figures from the past 5 years or so have hurt quite a bit.

Markakis, Jones, Matusz, Weiters, Bergesen, Tillman, Reimold, Pie, Hernandez, Bell, Snyder, Arrieta, Patton, Erbe, Brittan. Can you guys wait one year to see how these youngsters evolve before you abandon ship? You'd think after so many years of losing there would be a higher tolerance threshold. The first four are already considered elite players and odds are at least three of the other eleven will reach elite level too. If the O's have seven young elite players then they can augment to round out. In the meantime I'm going to enjoy a team with maybe as many young stars as the team had back in 1964. Like back then with McNally, Powell, B Robinson, Palmer, etc, you let them season awhile and then you get a guy like Frank to put them over the top. That's a recipe for success. In the meantime stop adding spices and let the pot simmer.

Wait and see? I was born and raised in Baltimore and attended two games of their first world series in 1966....my high school graduation year. I attended "the game" on Sep 6th 1995. Great times. But the bottom line is that Angelos has ruined it all. He just doesn't give any impression whatsoever that he cares about competing in the AL east.....or anywhere else for that matter. He's not the winning owner like the Red Sox and Yankees have. He sells hot dogs and beer and that's about it. They need the huge bat in the middle of that lineup. Why not go the hell out and get it?? The other teams do. It's certainly not for lack of money....the miser could own the AL east. So what's going on here? Baltimore deserves a much better owner. He keeps the fans frustrated 24-7-365. I used to pull splinters in the outfield at old Memorial Stadium and now.....well I'm just plain sick and tired of the crap.

BOB C ASKED " when did macphail say the O's would be competitive this yr ? He said so last season:
I told Dave earlier this afternoon, 'I think we're out of Phase One,'" he said. "And that's the most destructive and the toughest phase, where you're essentially tearing down and you've got the real construction in front of you. You dealt off your more attractive players to other clubs -- or at least some of them, anyway -- and you've brought in a nucleus of young talent. So we're out of Phase One now going forward, and where we are now, in my estimation, is we're going to move back to the more traditional criteria of evaluating managers: Wins and losses. It may not always be fair. Things happen, but from this point going forward, I'd like to think we're out of that first stage of what we'd hoped to do.

I

"To give him every chance going forward and to win as many games as we can and show meaningful improvement in the standings, which I think we need to do starting in 2010, it's our job in the front office -- mine specifically and in particular -- to augment, to give him as much help as we possibly can going towards that goal."

I dont think that fans expecting their team to have a CHANCE at the postseason is too much to ask. After all, my tax dollars built that gorgeous stadium that team plays in. They say April is a time of hope for every team in baseball... Not the Orioles

My question is when do we start hearing why the Orioles ARE going to get elite players rather than excuses why they CANT/WONT?

Several yrs back, we couldnt spend because we didnt know if there was going to be a team move into Washington. Then when MLB awarded Petey a regional sprts network for FREE and gave him the start up money, 60% equity in MASN, along with a guaranteed purchase price of 360 million if ol greedy petey ever decided to sell the team. Must be nice to run a team so poorly, yet receive so much compensation

. MLB GUARANTEED operating revenues of 130 million and if the O's dont make 130 million, MLB will make up the amount to make sure that they do. Hmmm, the Os are GUARANTEED operating revenues of 130 million, but ppl still think they "CANT" spend more ? LMAO

SO now the Excuse DU Jour is its pointless to spend money since we arent close to competing. WEll, how do we ever compete without ever adding to some ELITE talent. Nice little system the Os have. WHy should they care ? Why should they spend ?

THEY ARE GUARANTEED 130 MILLION IN REVENUE NO MATTER HOW BAD THEY STINK, Why should they bother spending any on talent, when they already know that they will be PROFITABLE no matter what. Its all part of "the plan"

2002-2007 3rd most profitable in MLB
2008 5 th most profitable in MLB
2009 ? WE'll find out in April 2010.

Ill bet we'll be near the top again in PROFITABLIITY--- in wins, not so much. Last place here we come!!

Its really all about next yr..until next yr gets here. NIce little system the Os have, they even have ppl buying into this comical propoganda. PT Barnum was on to something

Travis,

People will find ways to argue with that. They won't be right. Their posts will seem asinine. But the bottom line is a lot of these people don't pay attention to the organization as a whole. They only pay attention to the major league team. They don't understand that all great players have to begin somewhere. They don't understand how production can come from anywhere other than already established players obtained by trades or free agency. They don't understand that there is a median for players' growth/decline around the early thirties. The younger you are, the more capable you are of maturing into a better player. Once you're past that peak (and most players in free agency are around that age) your numbers go down. That's why guys hitting that free agency period want longer contracts, because they know the decline is on the way.

There are no givens in this game. Anywhere. Garrett Atkins was a huge guy who would have been a great trade chip for the Rockies last winter when they traded Holliday. What would have happened if the O's had traded for him and he put up the numbers he put up last year for Baltimore? Who's to say the same thing couldn't happen to Adrian Gonzales? Look at the Bedard trade. The Mariners were certain they were getting an ace, and they were, but look how it turned out for them.

The difference is that you're always giving up more to get outside talent, be it money or prospects. And nothing is guaranteed. The deeper your organization is talent wise in the minors, the more you can afford to go and make trades for big name players. But when your team has just gotten to the point where your minor league talent pool is reclaimed its respectability is not the time to make that move and put you back at square one if things don't work out in your favor.

But like I said, some people on here will never understand that.

While I may sound like a fan who is unaccustomed to hard economic analysis with this post, some teams need to consider local conditions in deciding whether to sign a free agent.

Let's look at the Orioles, since some criticize the Mike Gonzalez signing. The Orioles management is, I'm sure, well aware of its shrinking attendance. There is a growing feeling in Baltimore that the Orioles have been losers for 12 years, and, especially since they are in the AL East with the Yankees and the Red Sox, are likely to be losers into the indefinite future. Many in Baltimore are blind to the improvements in the team, and the promise in their young players, over the last year or two, and look solely to the annual win (and loss) total to determine the direction and development of the team. If the team does not win more games, it is not improving.

In this environment does the signing make more sense? Is it necessary to improve the team's performance, even if it doesn't get them to the playoffs, so management can sell the team's improvement to its fan base?

The lead Orioles story in The Sun the other day was headlined "All the right moves aren't all that exciting". It generally praised the O's moves thus far in the off-season, but asked where is the trade for Adrian Gonzalez, where is the signing of Matt Holiday or a similar "impact" free agent. Is the signing of Gonzalez necessary to sell hope to its fan base?

Is it necessary for a "bad" young team to butress its bullpen so it wins "the games it should win" so the spirit of the young players is not crushed by the losing?

I don't have answers to these questions. Moreover these questions sound suspiciously like the kind of sports writing pap that passes for analysis, which is blind to the hard realities of the development of a team.

The Orioles face a skeptical fan base. They must show that they are working to improve. If they continue to lose with the kids, claiming they are working to improve in the long term, they will continue to lose the fan base. Some wins now are important, even if it doesn't get them to the playoffs.

AM realizes that this will be another rebuilding year, that is why he kept Dave Trembley, he did not want to hire a new manager for another crappy year, that would reflect poorly on him. Alas we will have to endure at least one more long painful season, what choice do we have?

Gil:

Your definition of competitive is a little more modest than I was expecting. With that in mind, I think you are going to be pleasantly surprised this year.

Let's assume the following which I don't think requires a great leap of faith. Millwood and Guthrie throw 200IP with ERAs between 4 and four and a half. Bergesen shows us that 09 wasn't a fluke and just one of either Matusz or Tillman steps up.

If that happens, we will not have the worst pitching in the league. We'll be somewhere in the middle of the pack which will put them pretty close to satifying your definition.

Of course, we are also going to have to see continued improvement from our young position players, a modest bounce back by Atkins as well as AM addressing first base and the bullpen.

I think we're a lot closer than you think we are. I sure hope so.

All of the ppl banking on prospects probably did the same thing with Loewen, Riley, Penn, Stephens,Cabrera,Calvin Pickering, Darnell MCDonald,Keith Reed, etc,etc, etc

Im not against young players, on the contrary, I want support for the young players to take some pressure off of them. It would be nice if those goofy MASN commercials were asking "if u were there" for a meaningful game in sept for a friggin change

A true clean-up hitter isnt too much to ask, especially since its been a need for so long. THis team is spending 30-50 million less than it could yr in and yr out. The chest is full, instead of pocketing the money, how bout spending some and help accelerate the rebuilding process. IF not now, when ?

Trivia Question :

Name the last team to outspend the Skankees ?

hint: they play in the ALesat and the city begins with "B"

answer: if u said boston, you are wrong

The O's are suffering through the 7th longest World Series appearence drought of any team currently existing.

1)Chicago Cubs
2)Seatle
3)Texas
4)Kansas City
5)Pittsburgh
6) Montreal/Washington
7) O's -1983

that is just sad

bob c,

u seem to think the o's are close to contending. I dont agree, but I hope that you're right.

With that said, doesnt it create even more urgency for AM to go out and get that big bopper thats been missing since the 90's even more?

If these prospects somehow all work out, ppl will be really sorry if AM "waited until we're ready to contend" especially if by some miracle the O's surprise some ppl ala 2005 and contend a yr early, only not to have the horses to stay in the whole way. The money is there, we dont need to save it as though we're the royals (although they might outspend us, lol) if we can improve now. Better to have it (FA's) and not need it than need it and not have it.

There are ppl on here acting like the team will go belly up if the team starts ponying up some money. The deal Greedy Petey made with MLB with the Nats moving in ensured that that could NEVER happen.

I am back and forth on whether we should go after A. Gonzalez or let are youth improve for a more long time tenure. But, I have to admit that signing Holiday would free up Reimold to be including in a trade for Gonzalez with a group like Reimold, Snyder, Arrieta, and Hernandez those 4 players should be enough to land Gonzalez and still leave us with a strong core of young pitching prospects. This would give us a lineup of:
Roberts 2B
Jones CF
Holiday LF
Gonzalez B
Markakis RF
Scott DH
Weiters C
Atkins B
Isturis SS
I would put that lineup against anybodies
And it doesn't mean you only have Gonzalez for two years we can do what the Phillies did with Halliday and sign him to a 3 year extension. You pay him and Holiday somewhere between 15-18 mil. a year and your payroll still won't be close to the yankees and red sox.Who you are trying to compete with. I know some of you love Reimold and Snyder but unless you can guarantee Reimold will be as good as Holiday and Snyder will as good as Gonzalez then that argument doesn't hold any water to me.

We need 3 young starting pitchers to "pop" at same time, a la Flanagan/McGregor/Dennis, then add a big bat. The O's will Rise Again!!

"All of the ppl banking on prospects probably did the same thing with Loewen, Riley, Penn, Stephens,Cabrera,Calvin Pickering, Darnell MCDonald,Keith Reed, etc,etc, etc"

See, that there is another problem. You can't compare the talent levels of the prospects in our system now to those listed above. These guys are a different breed as is evident by publications such as Baseball America ratinq our system higher now than they ever did when guys like those were the O's prospects.

Those guys were the product of a system damaged by poor draft selection and the signing of class A free agents past their prime. Since Joe Jordan was hired away from the Marlins in 2004, our 1st round draft picks have been as follows:

2005 - Brandon Snyder (on the cusp of making the big leagues following a strong showing in the AFL)

2006 - Billy Rowell (probably a bust, but it's still a tad too early to tell)

2007 - Matt Wieters (contributing to the MLB club and hyped as a future All-Star not just by the O's, but by baseball writers everywhere)

2008 - Brian Matusz (showed success by making it all the way to the big leagues in his first year with the organization and finishing the season with 3 straight starts of 7.0 innings in which he had an ERA of 2.57, the last one being in Yankee Stadium, where he only gave up 1 run)

2009 - Matt Hobgood (TBD)

I know O's fans have suffered through an organization that put out little in the way of successful prospects for a long time, but the system has changed. New management started from the ground up (the proper way to build a home) and when that's the way you go, the major league club is the last to be effected.

Personally, I don't care whether you, the negative "fans," believe or not. You have every right to be blind to the changes that have happened in this organization. But don't condescend me with your empty words for looking at facts and having a positive attitude.

Jason:

Mea Culpa. When I made that remark in my response to Gil, I was assuming that he equated a "competitive" team with a plus 500 record. (See my 5:25pm post)

If it is truely your belief that 2010 is the year we should "have a CHANCE at the postseason", we couldn't possibly do that without having a winning record, then my remark stands.

Re-read the quote you cite. Nowhere does he talk about a winning record. I can understand after 12 straight losing seasons the temptation to read that into it, but that is what you would be doing. AM did not promise a winning team by 2010.

Jason C,
I understand that we have had some busts come out of our minor league system in the past, but I am pretty sure those prospects were always touted by the organization far more than they were throughout baseball. In the prospects we have now, the articles written about them are not just in the local papers. These are prospects that are being recognized nationally by people like Keith Law, Buster Olney, Peter Gammons and the like. While that doesn't guarantee success, it should mean more than just hearing about how great your prospects are from your own organization. I really believe that these young guys are going to contribute to a nice future in Camden Yards, and that future is not that far away...
I am not saying that we need to keep every single one of these guys either. If we can make the right deal for the right player, I have faith that McPhail will make that deal and he will not mortgage the long term stability of the organization to do it.
All of you clamouring to trade 4 or 5 prospects to get A. Gonzalez or anyone else, don't forget what happend to Seattle when they did that very same thing to get Bedard... When you see Adam Jones in Center, Bell at third (thanks to trading Sherrill), Tillman on the mound Mickolio warming up in the pen... remember how we got them all...
Think Seattle wants a do-over?

Tony P

It doesnt matter Seattle is a better ran team than the Orioles and is going to make a run this year. If they want to they can bleed out the minors and still be good.

Yeah prospects can only go so far the main thing is the ability of the GM and how dedicated the owner is to building a good team. We have a good GM but Angelos is the worst owner ever. The Orioles focus now is mainly on future hype, PR spin and showcasing Camden Yards and places to get drunk and packing in out of towners.

If you dont believe me just look at the manager! :)

I like the moves the Orioles have made -- but I don't think they're difference makers. Millwood is not a number one, but will be with the Orioles and the pressure relieved from Guthrie will fall to Millwood; Atkins is a placeholder for Bell; Gonzalez, a reliever with a good ERA and spotty closer record. The real improvement will come from the young players who debuted last season: Weiters, Reimold, Jones may provide the power; Matusz, Tillman, Bergeson, the starting pitching. Orioles still need to make some significant moves. To call frustrated Orioles fans imipatient is absurd. Those who have stuck with the team for this decades plus of disaster are the most patient, loyal fans on planet earth. It's about time for some dramatic moves.

Jason:

"Contending" to me means that we're in the running for a division title or at least a wild card spot. No, I don't think we're there yet, but I think we're closer than a lot of people think.

Let me run this by you. Did you know that Reimold had better minor league numbers than Holliday? That doesn't mean that he can do the same at the major league level, but giving him a chance to get a full season under his belt so we can find out doesn't seem like a bad idea.

What if he is, or is at least a reasonable facsimile? What if after 2010 we are looking back at AJ with 25+ HRs and seeing why so many have compared him to Torry Hunter. What if Weiters has the kind of year that makes clear the comparisons to Joe Mauer?

In other words, we may have Holliday, Hunter and Mauer (by different names) already playing for us. How much sense would it make to go out, sign huge multi million dollar contracts, give up draft choices and/or trade a boatload of young prospects because we were too impatient to wait and see.

Bob C. and Jason c. and Chris in Hawaii,

I agree with all of you in some respects, and it is good to have these discussions with informed fans. I think evreyone's opinion is framed by their own experience and I would no more say anyone's opinion is wrong and mine is right.

That being said, with leadership comes responsibility, and Macphail needs to do more than sell perpetual rebuilding. He needs to multi task and bring in blue chip major League talent now. If the kids develop, fine, but there is no guarantee.We all agree that rebuilding the sorry farm system was a priority when Macphail arrived here. Yes Bob, after losing 100 games this year I said some time back that I would do handstands at Calvert and Lexington for a .500 record in 2010.

Where I differ from some is on the timing of trading for and or signing big time talent. After 12 losing seasons I feel it is unconsionable for the organization not to make a serious effort to win now.

I don't trust peter Angelos or Andy Macphail to decide when and if it is time to spend some real money. The team could be 10 games better by inserting a big time right handed hitter with power in the middle of the lineup. Why wait?

Chris in Hawaii -- I read you agreeing with Travis that the Orioles shouldn't go after any big player until they are ready to compete and you go so far as to assert that any of us who disagree with you will post" comments that "seem asinine."

Well, at the risk of seeming asinine, I'll take you on. You argue that there is no assurance, should the Orioles trade, say, for Adrian Gonzalez, that he'll pan out. You cite the example of how the Mariners got burned when they traded for Bedard.

Fair enough, that's all true. On the other hand, there are no guarantees that the prospects in the farm system are going to amount to anything. Think about Corey Patterson, who the O's got from the Cubs a few years back. Had he lived up to his hype, he'd be a perennial All-Star, but he never was able to complete harness his considerable ability.

Current Oriole Felix Pie came to the team with the Patterson M.O.: Loads of talent, but couldn't put it together. In the second half of the season he made strides to living up to his scouting report, but there are no guarantees that he'll be able to find himself completely.

The point being is that there is no hard and fast way of assuring that prospects or established stars are going to live up to expectations. Does anyone really know how the young Orioles we're so high about, such as Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Reimold, Bergesen, Hernandez, Berken, Mickolio, Erbe, Bell, Arrieta, Snyder, Britton, Lebron, etc., are going to be next year, two years, five years, ten years from now?

Of course not. Some of them doubtless are going to make it in the majors, a few become stars. Some of those may get traded somewhere else. Others may burn brightly, then flame out early or be up for just a cup of coffee and never be heard from again or have a career ending injury.

No one has a crystal ball and can predict with certainly what any of them are going to do. Sure there are a few "can't misses" in the bunch, but there have even been "can't misses" who missed.

What I'm trying to say is this. Yes, I agree with you of the importance of home-grown talent, but as MacPhail has often said, "Buy bats, grow arms."

Now if the Orioles can trade for an established major league hitter like Gonzalez, why shouldn't they. Sure, maybe he doesn't make the adjustment to coming over to the AL East, but who's to say. He hit in the NL West against some excellent pitching and excelled and that's the point: The man has a major league track record. He's proven he can hit big league pitching, something that Bell and Snyder haven't proven yet.

I don't say empty the cupboard to get Gonzalez, but as MacPhail also says, you have to trade talent to get talent. The O's need to make this big step and show the Yankees and Red Sox that they're ready to better themselves substantially.

It's time that the Orioles make turn the corner in the rebuilding process and not be complacent any longer. Certainly with Gonzalez in the middle of their lineup they finally can start making some noise in the AL East. If they won't yet be right there with the top two teams, he'd at least give them enough ammunition to via for the third spot in the division, which would be a significant one-season from dead last and make them a more attractive team for free agents at the end of next season.

And that would be an accomplishment they can't hope for a presently configured.

I just hope the O's win it all in 2012. That way when all of us long suffering fans die on December 21, 2012, we can die happy.

Gil:

My 7:36 post is a partial answer to your question. To add to it I would just say that we need to see what are young guys are made of.

If we do that, then we have a much clearer idea of where we have to spend to fill out our roster. Right now we're guessing. We do not have the almost unlimited resources of the Yanks and Bosox.

In addition, I'd say that wanting to sign high priced free agents is one thing. Getting them to agree to sign is another. I very much doubt that we can right now. If, as I say in my last post, that our kids really step up, some awfully good free agents are going to see that Baltimore as a place they want to be.

SPENDING: I hear people asking for big acquisitions with big contracts since the O's have the money. But the Free Agent market is weak. I just don't see any sense in getting Matt Holiday for big money; If the O's do get him, do they have a .500 + team suddenly, or a Post season team?....no. Why not wait till next year....

Best of 2011 Free Agents:
Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Adam Dunn, Derick Lee, Jorge Cantu, Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, Brandon Webb. And MAYBE Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes!

I think you wait, and spend it all next year after the "Prospects" have another year to shine or fail so the needs are crystal clear. Next years Free Agent class is exactly what O's need to be pursuing.

MAKING A BIG TRADE: While it is obvious that the O's need a big bat and there are some of those big bats that "might" be moved, with only 1-2 years of playing in the Big Leagues, it's hard to tell if the prospects are the real deal or not. They aren't all going to be Great, but some will be. You can only tell by giving them a little more time.

What does winning 5-10 more games mean with Matt Holliday...and that's IF he's the real deal type A+ free agent. If he were in next years class of Free Agents he'd be outside the top 10. He looks good cause the others in this years group are so weak.

After 12 loosing years, the only thing that'll make me upset is frivolous spending. Like Matt Holliday. Spend the money on our guys we have now. Sign up Adam Jones and Matt Wieters like the Rays did Evan Langoria.

All current debate aside about baseball economics and players unions --The consequences appear black and white clearly simple to discern to many. If the Yankees continue to up the ante on players salaries and free agents MLB WILL SUFFER NOT JUST THE FANS . Simple many small mrkt teams will continue to hemorrage fans (after all who wants to go see perpetual bottom dwellers) some teams will contract (fold). Baseball is a business and if one corporation is allowed to monopolize the product and shut out competitors by cornering the market on talent plus in effect sell more caps ,jerseys, have more fan base the best highest paid players ----the rest of the businesses (clubs) if they can't turn a profit will fold. The total fan base will errode due to lack of competition & interest (not everyone is a Yankee fan) except in certain markets . The league will get smaller NOT EXPAND. Baseball's exemption from anti-monopoly laws has come home to roost.

Pete,

I agree and disagree with your latest post. AM has turned the mindset of this organization in the right direction, his improvements in the player development and successful drafts have been exceptional over previous efforts. However, pulling the trigger seems to be his biggest problem. Where were we on the Marquis signing? Another solid arm, 2 years and at Millwood money? You saw our pitching this year, wouldn't two proven starters make you feel better?

As for the big bat, there are a few out there, and corner infielders with pop are a lot more scarce than OF's with pop! So you either move Reimhold to 1B and buy some time, sign Bay or Holliday and if and when Snyder and Bell come up, move Bay or Holliday to DH! Not all that complicated just requires PA to open up the checkbook (let me guess he lost it)! I'm really not so sure there was ever a plan beyond turning around our minors because I'm not convinced PA will pay. The bottomline is that we will NEVER complete depending completely on the draft, player development can't keep up with the spending of the NY Yankees and the Red Sox and as long as PA is making money he won't sell. So to that point I would suggest a boycott of O's game and force his hand! Make this painful in the wallett will get message because the Warehouse has gotten a pass for too long!

Bob C.,

How long would you wait to see who and how many of the prospects pan out?

How many more losing seasons would you endure in order to test Macphail's rebuilding plan?

If the orioles lose 90 games next year would you then say enough is enough no matter how the prospects seem to develop, or.......

would you be OK with 65 or 70 wins next year if you think the plan is on schedule?

In your opinion, when is the end game, Bob?

The fact that the comments are lasting for hours upon end show that the Orioles are worth talking about. I'm super excited for this season and can't wait to see Bell and Snyder get their chance. The Yanks are getting old..and Boston is starting to throw money away. Sometimes its not the deal you make, but the deal you don't make. I say let all the young guys play.. honestly right now.. I wouldn't mind seeing Delgado on a 1 year deal.. maybe work in a Pie and Reimhold on a LF-DH platoon. Trade Luke Scott and Arrieta for a Starting pitcher...

What a joke.....

I even read above where someone said this team is built for 2011-2014. Now there's a warehouse blogger if I ever saw one.

Gil, I agree with everything you've said. You're just always more elequant than I. I don't see how you come up with them winning 70-75 though. How? From where?

Half of the starting rotation is completely unproven, while we have no closer with experiance.

The oriole corners consist of Atkins, possibly Aubrey and maybe a little Wiggy thrown in. Just typing those names was a pathetic excercise.

There is no legitimate # 4 hitter and there surely be no consistantcy in the #5 hole.

Our OF has promise, but our gold glove/all star center fielder has failed to stay on the field 2 years running.

And Markakis? Great glove, but as I've said, if he's not going to hit 20 bombs he either needs to hit 300 or steal more bases. O's fans talk about him like he's Frank Robinson. And don't throw stats at me Brooksie. It's a different game (park dimensions, etc...).

Pete, you'r getting closer. You want to take it to the edge of telling it 'completely' the way it is, but something keeps holding you back. I understand though. Trust me, I do.

Maybe get closer to doing a story about how while PA did spend in the 90's, control of the club has slowly been given to his boys (one in particular). Maybe write how 1) he (his boy) doesn't want to spend, and 2) he could care less about winning.

I know you hear more than just whispers about such Pete. When you write about such though, then it'll be game on.....and the fans will finally be getting the entire truth.

And so it goes......

Wayne,

I believe your on to something my friend!

Pete,

Lets construct our roster from another perspective, from a business view. What is our annual budget for players salaries? What should it be in the AL East? $100M considering the Red Sox and Yankees I believe that is the minimum. That said, with our salary currently sitting in the LOW $45M we should have about $55M to lay out. Follow the money or lack there of! This is a business and should be treated appropriately! Lets do some real fact digging and get to the bottom of this!

Gil:

In answer to your questions:

a/ one year
b/ one
c/ if we lose 90+ next year then we're seriously screwed because it will mean most, not just some, but most of our prospects will have fallen on their faces. At that point I'll take up lawn bowling.
d/ if we win only 65 games next year the rebuilding plan will be completely off track.

Obviously, given the optimistic tone of my posts, I don't think that's going to happen. I think Weiters, Jones, Reimold and Matusz are the real deal.

We don't have a lot of choice at this point Gil. Our future is in the hands of our young guys. So is AM's for that matter.

Gil. you've been hearing the exact same augument for a long time now. Fact is, you'll hear it again next off-season.

People will always say 'big names don't want to come to baltimore'...AND 'what free agents are out there this year'.....AND 'ths club is in much better shape than before AM got here'....AND 'this club is set up for 2011'....AND....well I could go on forever.

The team won 64 games last year. 64! They could easily have one of the weakest rotations in the majors this year, they have no proven closer, possibly the weakest corners in the game, no clean-up hitter, etc, etc....

This will be losing season # 13. They will tank in the 2nd half like they always do, the manager will be fired, and MARK MY WORD, people will say 'it's always been about 2012'!

That's the story Pete.... That's the real Blog!

Pete is right about one thing, this is a polarized blog. It's great to see passion about this team, both for and against the "Plan."

We have enough haters and believers to have teams for a flag football game. The winners chose the way the team will be built. There are any number of fields we could use and Pete could be the referee.

Bring some brews and brauts and we can toast Andy MacPhail, Syd Thrift, and Jim Doucette. We can call the game the "Schmuck Bowl". Beats all this sniping back and forth at each other. Because whatever your viewpoint, we all love the O's! Besides, if I were to meet Wayne in person, maybe he won't think I'm such a dolt! LOL

Waddya say?

Wayne and Keith,
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion and that includes both of you. I have to disagree with your assesment of the finances though. Yes, we are spending $45 mil on the team as it currently stands. The talent we have is young and cheap now, but it won't be forever. If you spend $100 by adding to the team today (Which is not a contender due to inexperience, not lack of talent), what are you going to do when Matusz, Tillman, Wieters, Jones, etc are due to get paid? Why not let this team develop, spend the bulk of our $100 mil on keeping our players here when the time is right and wait for the RIGHT free agent that will put us over the top? Until this staff develops, spending money on a Holliday is a waste. As I said in an earlier post, as this team gets better, we will not have to over-spend to get people to come here. This will be a place that they will want to play, like it used to be...
Just an opinion...

SO, my post get taken down? Why, because I spoke the truth Pete? Because the truth is tough to hear?

And so it goes......

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I haven't taken any of your posts down. What are you talking about?

Bob C.,

I think that Wieters is the real deal, no doubt about it. I think Matusz has a tremendous amount of potential but facing Major League hitters for a full year, if he stays healthy, will give us a better guage of his viability

I think Reimold will struggle next year at least early. He has a hole in his swing and it is the fastball above the belt. Remember Mike Young? Reimold will have to make adjustments.

Jones is a tremendous athlete, and in my opinion may have more overall natural ability than anyone who has ever played centerfield for the Orioles. There are those inside the organization who question his attitude, and ability to stay on the field.

I think you are 100% correct that as fans we are joined to the hip of Macphail's plan with rebuilding through the development of the prospects and it had better work, or I will join you in lawn darts.

Bob C.,

I think that Wieters is the real deal, no doubt about it. I think Matusz has a tremendous amount of potential but facing Major League hitters for a full year, if he stays healthy, will give us a better guage of his viability

I think Reimold will struggle next year at least early. He has a hole in his swing and it is the fastball above the belt. Remember Mike Young? Reimold will have to make adjustments.

Jones is a tremendous athlete, and in my opinion may have more overall natural ability than anyone who has ever played centerfield for the Orioles. There are those inside the organization who question his attitude, and ability to stay on the field.

I think you are 100% correct that as fans we are joined to the hip of Macphail's plan with rebuilding through the development of the prospects and it had better work, or I will join you in lawn darts.

first of all, anyone who wants to trade jones and make pie the starting center fielder is insane. pie had a couple solid months, but jones really looks like a future star if he can become more consistent.

second, holliday would be great, but i don't think he's the power hitting number 4 hitter that the orioles need. he did good in colorado because the park is a launching pad(look at his splits during his time in colorado), and he did good in st. louis because he hit behind the best player in baseball. in oakland, he was counted on to lead the team, and his stats were only mediocre. he would definitly be counted on to lead the orioles, and i just don't think he could do it. for people who want bay, he's the same story. he did great in boston because he wasn't being counted on to be "the man".

yes, the orioles definitly need a great cleanup hitter(such as miguel cabrera or adrian gonzalez), but can everyone give the young guys some time to develop and have a little patience? i think everyone knows the orioles will not contend next year, with or without a-gon. the orioles should wait until they are actually one piece away from contention and then pull the trigger on a big time trade. in the meantime, sign a guy like delgado or laroche for a season. this team is heading in the right direction. they just need a little more time(and yes, i know o's fans are tired of hearing that but it's true).

My problem with McPhail is that he is trying to get by hitting singles and doubles in a division where you need home runs to compete. And by that I mean that I think he is assembling an Orioles team that when the final product is ready, will have more quality players than probably ever since 1997. And I think he did a great job assembling top end pitching talent, with Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta, though I doubt Tillman or Arrieta ever quite live up to their billing.

But aside from Wieters, McPhail seems to be assembling solid but not great, and thus not good enough in the AL East, lineup. Markakis will always be one step below great, and Jones probably showed us in the 2nd half of the season what we should expect from him as a hitter. And then what do we have after that? Guys like Reimold, Bell, and Snyder. Who will all be solid major leaguers, but never all that scary.

We're in the AL East. You need GREAT players, not merely good ones. McPhail is assembling a team whose ceiling is that of a barely above .500 team. We need a truly big bat in the middle, like Adrian Gonzalez, if we want to be a team that actually challenges the Yankees or Red Sox down the road.

Swing for the fences, Andy. Otherwise, the team that you're building will never be good enough.

Ryan K -

I stopped reading your post after this nugget: "Jones probably showed us in the 2nd half of the season what we should expect from him as a hitter."

You really think that Adam Jones is going to be a .222 hitter with a .290 OBP and a .405 slugging %?

Unlike many of the bloggers here, I really, really, really like baseball a lot. I've been going to the park, watching on tv, listening on the radio, and thinking and talking about it for 50 years, and I never get tired of it. About the only thing that can spoil a day at the park for me (unless they run out of food) is bad basball. I don't need my team to win all the time. In fact, some of my happiest times have been on days when my team lost, but the combination of baseball, summer, friends, and everything else was perfect. If both teams play good ball, I'm happy, and winning the game is just an extra boost to something I already love. Unfortunately, the O's have been playing some bad ball for too many years, with too many players out of position or out of their league. I personally don't need the Orioles to win the division, or even win any set number of games. If they can play with heart, and with major-league ability all around the field, and I can still get heartburn and sunburn at the same time, I'll just love coming out to the park as often as I can do it. And right now, I believe I can reasonably hope that a couple of the new players and some of the developing young ones have a pretty good shot at playing the game the right way, and especially at a couple of spots where that has been lacking. And that makes me happy. So maybe I'm an idiot.

Danny,

You're certainly no idiot!

I love baseball in a similar fashion believe it or not. I have season tix, and while I can't go to all, I go to many. Good baseball, great friends, and open air is why I go.

The 'good baseball' part hasn't been there for so long though. And while I am all for developing good young players who play with heart, that doesn't mean we'll see a good baseball team in 2010...the kind of team my friends and I can be proud of.

I too have not asking for a playoff bound team, Instead, just a team that wins more games than they lose.

In order to do so Danny, you can not enter a season with three fifths of your staring rotation inexperienced, an inexperienced closer, very weak corner infielders, no clean-up hitter, etc, etc.... It just can't be done.

You also can't expect to watch a good baseball 'team' when the owners son does not 1) want to spend money the way a market the size of baltimore should, and 2) does not care about winning.

Unless voices (fans) are heard Danny, you and I will continue to watch bad baseball for years to come.

That said, during a 162 game schedule, the O's are bound to play 'good baseball' at times. Let's just hope you'll be at the park when they do.

This is turning out to be one of the best threads in a long time Pete. I was really happy to read every comment down the whole thing and see all the well thought out, insightful comments. Certainly there's no denying that there are still a lot of articulate, passionate O's fans around.

As someone who shares the viewpoint stated by many here (looking at the 2010 season as an opportunity to make significant improvements in the W/L column, while at the same time letting the kids play to have a better idea of where free agent dollars or big trade pieces will be best spent next offseason), I was interested in some of the comments by posters with opposing views.

As to Jason in Florida, it would be nice to perhaps see a piece detailing the finances of the Orioles to get a close estimate of total profit for the last few years. I've heard estamites of our payroll capacity to be anywhere from $100 mil to $140 mil while still turning a profit.

I think if we had a close to exact number on O's profits, it would make for a lively discussion on how much the O's should be spending on talent to improve the team that we as fans so badly desire to be sucessful once again.

As for the reports from our resident Angelos "insider" that son John is running the team now, I'd be surprised if that was entirely or even significantly true. My understanding is that John runs MASN along with radio and marketing operations. I'd be amazed if the final veto for free agent spending or big trades still doesn't stop at Pete's desk. And as someone who has had an opportunity to observe the old man first hand in more social than necessarily business situations, he still has the energy and enthusiasm that would make one believe that he's not only gonna be around but in control, until the day he dies.

djph- John has been 'running' the team for some time now. He runs teh business side and doesn't have anything to do with the baseball operations side. Peter Schmuck can verify this if he chooses to respond.

Jason is correct about the finances and he didn't mention the Sarasota deal. Sarasota is paying up to $31M to renovate Ed Smith Stadium and Twin Lakes. You remember Twin Lakes, the place other ML teams refused to send their teams to play because of the condition of the place. It was built in 1970 by the Royals and the Orioles have used it for decades now, and the Orioles have not put a penny into it. Ask Schmuck about that as well.
The Orioles get all the revenue from the stadium, including events they put on there that don't involve the Orioles.

It's so interesting that only 7 years ago the Orioles were had out drawn the Red Sox for a decade or more. They had the second highest payroll on the majors, and still made money. The Red Sox got better with a new owner who hired people that tyrned the franchise around on the baseball and marketing/fan experience side. They won and could add seats, raise prices, use NESN to their advantage.

The Orioles have left $20-25M a year on the table with the all the revenue they have lost on attendance alone by their poor performance on the field.

They have no one to blame but themselves.

jason c in south florida is on target in recalling the revenue guarantee that MLB made to Angelos. Ouch. This makes it even more painful that the Oriole refuse to invest a bigger fraction of their handsome profits in putting better talent on the field.

oldetoys is on target in recalling the revenue guarantee that MLB made to Angelos. Ouch. This makes it even more painful that the Oriole refuse to invest a bigger fraction of their handsome profits in putting talent on the field.

Gil:

There's a reason why I like the approach AM is taking. I live up in Toronto, and while I always paid the most attention to the Os, it was pretty difficult not to notice how Gillick largely, and Paul Beeston as well, built the Jays. They were the best team in the AL from 83-93, and to me anyway, a model worthy of study in terms of how a franchise should be built and run.

Did you know that from their first winning year in 83 until their first WS win in 92, four fifths of their rotation were always homegrowns. Never once did they have more than one starter they got from someone else. In 93 when they won their second WS, they broke the mold with two.

He also assembled a good cast of homegrown position players. The 87 team, which was the best to that point winning 96 games, had homegrown starters at every position, except for Ernie Whitt who they picked up from Boston after his cup of coffee season when he was 23 years old.

Gillick was a good talent evaluator. He built the Jays minor league system into the best in baseball. He didn't make a lot of trades, never handed a boatload of prospects for a big bat, rarely signed any big name free agents. He made astute trades here and there to round out his team and to fill gaps but that was about it.

Gillick held onto his draft picks and prospects. He understood that not everyone he thought was going to be good was going to work out. He increased his odds by building depth at every position on his minor league teams. If this second baseman at AAA flopped, up would come a AA guy who worked out. It was a security in numbers philosophy that worked out to a solid decade of being a great team.

There would be those who would argue that Gillick didn't win a WS until he went out and got some free agents, and they'd be right. (He did come awful close a couple of times though) But Gillick only did it to put them over the top. He built a solid core before he did. Jack Morris and Paul Molitor didn't join a club with a bunch of kids with loads of potential, but a team with solid proven players with track records.

Gillick had an advantage that AM doesn't, or rather, didn't have to work under an impediment that that AM does. The Jays were an expansion team starting from scratch. Fans accepted that and were happy with each improvement, regardless of how modest.

AM works with an impatient, (understandably so after a decade of losing), set of fans who don't want to win now, but rather yesterday. And who can blame us. I would argue though, given the example of Gillick, that if we can find a little more patience we may be very well served.

We'll be competitive with the big boys on a consistent basis if we can build a solid player development system that is the envy of baseball. Gillick proved it to my satisfaction.

It's wonderful to read so much passionate and knowledgeable interest in our beloved Orioles. It augurs well for the future, even if the team's maddening play often makes me want to throw things at the field. Danny in WV--I couldn't agree with you more. It's the quality of the play that matters to me, much more than the wins and losses, although more wins would light up those summer afternoons in ways we haven't experienced for too long.

As I see it, there are five issues in play here: 1) will to improve, 2) money, 3) offense, 4) pitching, and 5) managing and coaching. It might be helpful, in the interests of focusing the discussion, if Peter were to write five separate posts, one on each of these topics, preferably including some fresh information, following which bloggers could, through give and take, try to arrive at least at a rough agreement on the most productive ways forward in thinking about each of these issues.

WILL TO IMPROVE
Here, for example, Wayne's assertion that one or more members of the Angelos family is a) in a position of power, and b) uninterested in improving the team, is disturbing. Perhaps through interviews, perhaps by passing on information acquired through other means, it would be helpful if Peter could press on this issue--a delicate and difficult matter to approach directly, but none more relevant or important.

MONEY
Similarly, instead of wildly differing surmises and guesswork, it would be helpful to have some facts about the team's finances: how profitable IS the franchise?, how high IS the current payroll?, how much money has been accumulated over recent years by the disparity between income and expenditure?, how much money IS available to spend without breaking the bank, etc? Is there any public access to the team's books? Does the fact that the team plays in a publicly financed facility under favorable terms from the State of MD give the public any rights to financial information? If not, what would be the team's response to a request from, say, The Baltimore Sun, for even a rough accounting?

OFFENSE
It's obvious that the O's offensive production needs to get much, much better. Most posters recognize this. Our ability to score more runs becomes even more critical as we head into a season in which 3 of our 5 pitchers will each have less than one full year of pitching in the major leagues under his belt. There are going to be many games in which, to win, we are just going to have to out-slug the opposition. Right now that doesn't look likely. Of the nine position players, two (SS, and IB ) are below average in production, one (DH) is inconsistent overall and bad against LH pitching, and one (backup C) will be staffed for 50-60 games by a player who is close to an automatic out. That's a lot of holes. Most critically, the team also lacks a legitimate cleanup hitter. BALANCED teams win championships. The Orioles have enormous weaknesses on offense.

So what to do? As I've said before on the blog, I'm of the wing that believes that you go out now and try to balance the young talent with at least one proven hitter, and preferably two. I think A. Gonzalez can be had. His market value in a contract extension would probably be in the region of 6/18 mil, which, when added to his first two years at 10 mil, would add up to 8 years at $118 mil, an average of $14.75 mil/year. For a great, consistent hitter who is also a Gold Glove first-baseman, that, in my view is a bargain. He would also be still only 35 when those 8 years are up. To those of the add-only-when-we're-near-the-cusp school of thought, I would say that such neat formulations rarely correspond to life's messiness. Strengthening our offense will be an ongoing process, full of ups and downs, more than one big improvement will have to be made, one big acquisition will attract others over time, those in turn will make more chips available for trade, etc. As King Lear said, in another context, "Nothing will come of nothing." If we're going to start, let's start, let's get moving.

PITCHING
There are some bright spots here: Bergeson and Matusz, who both showed frequent brilliance last year: command, maturity, great stuff, brains, and the ability to get the best hitters out on a consistent basis. Therefore, in my view, they should be the 1 and 2 starters. Tillman was less impressive. While obviously very talented, and potentially in the Bergeson-Matusz class, he had serious control problems, and should be in the minors for a good while longer. Millwood will probably have an ERA of around 4, and Guthrie probably around 4.5. The games that these two start will be struggles; I doubt they'll win more than 11 or 12 each. As I see it, the O's need another starter, someone capable of pitching from the start of the season onward, and someone good enough to pitch near the top of the rotation.

MANAGING/COACHING
I think Trembley is a nice man but a terrible manager. In my opinion, he alone, through his weak line-ups, his mishandling of pitchers, his inability to maintain discipline, and his cowardice in confronting lazy, unfocused play, cost the team at least 10 games, maybe more. The same goes for the coaches responsible for baserunning, outfield defense, and 3B. Because I did not grow up playing this game, but have grown to love it as a fan over the last thirty years, I may be wrong about this, and about much else that I've said, but that's my view.

I look forward to hearing what others think.

Bob C.,

The Orioles also had a long history of successful player development and good GM's. The 1966 World Championship team was a culmination of 12 years of building a team through pitching and defense and then adding Frank Robinson from the Reds and Luis Aparicio at short from the White Sox.

Althought the Orioles got into the playoffs twice early in the Angelos era, he presided over the demise of the minor league system and meddled in the front office to the point that he destroyed the autonomy of the front office to make infromed baseball decisions. Pat Gillick did a stint here, but he was the last GM with any real authority that did not quit or get fired by Angelos.

In my opinion, time ran out on Angelos long before he hired Macphail ostensibly to take the heat off himself. Angelos would never have even hired Macphail to try to remake the organization had not the National League moved in down the street and threatened his empire.

I like what you are saying Bob and I agree with all of it when it comes to building talent through the farm system. But due to the baggage Angelos has created, it iscritical that the process be accelerated through the introduction of proven talent to the major league roster.
I just can't concieve of one more losing season, even if the organization is moving in the right direction. Peter Angelos has run out of time and it is his own doing.

Gil:

At the risk of boring you, there's another aspect to Gillick and the Jays story worth noting.

They came achingly close to winning a world series in 85, getting knocked out by KC after leading three games to one. In 87 they were winning until a collapse in the last week of the season.

That started a lot of chatter in town. Gillick has to do something to get us over the hump. After good but not great 88 and 89 seasons, including getting knocked out of the playoffs by Oakland, the volumn of chatter got pretty loud.

Gillick responded. He started making trades, signing free agents, and in the process giving up prospects and draft choices. It paid off in two WS wins, but they were followed by 5 straight losing seasons.
They didn't have the depth in the minors to cover when their players started getting old.

I would argue, and a lot of Toronto fans would agree with me, that had Toronto won either in 85, 87 or both years, there would have been no pressure on Gillick to change his game plan. Two WS rings buys you a lot of faith from the fans. He would have stuck to what he'd always done, keeping his draft choices and prospects. Hell, he might still be here working on winning season number 24 and with a few more rings on his fingers.

Gil:

And here I thought I was the only night owl up this late. Sorry, I was typing my last post while you were posting yours. Mine wasn't in response, but it serves the purpose.

Oh, and you're absolutely right about Angelos. He deserves a lot of scorn. I try not to focus on him, keep my eyes on AM, and pray to God PA doesn't start thinking again that he has advice to give.

Pitching is the key, and we are still a couple years away. Millwood will only help us stay close every 5th day. We've got a nucleus of position players, but until our pitching can be counted on . . . we will suffer. Of course, we could have 1989 all over again. . .

Merry Christmas.

Bob C.,

Here is why it is critical that the Orioles try to move the timetable up and start winning in 2010: The fan base is dying, interest on the team is on the wane, and people in the Baltimore area have dicovered other things to do. This is not an ancedote. I manage a medium size company in Timonium, just north of baltimore. I have maintained a corporate season ticket plan for 25 Years with the Orioles. There were times when I had some extra tickets not designated for clients and my employees would put in for them and scarf them up

In recent years, I have a diffficult time giving the tickets to clients as perks, and I can't even get my employees to take them anymore. The only tickets in demand are the Yankees/Red sox tickets and those are requested by out of town clients months in advance. I only bought a 15 game plan this year for our four seats and our comptroller is all over me to put the marketing money somewhere else.

We people on this blog are baseball geeks and are not represenataive of the local fan base to any degree. We are an abberation and I'll wager that many who post here are from out of the area and follow the team more based on nostalgia and rotieserrie interests. For those who work and live here, we know the awful truth. Angelos has destroyed fan loylaty and interest and it would take a World series to stoke it up again.

I was talking Baeball in the Lunchroom the other day, chattering about Oriole's prospects and hopefuls such as Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Chris Tillman. My employees had no idea who they were. All they remember is Cal Ripken. That's pretty much where the clock stopped in this town.

Wayne, who posts here regularly has accurately diagnosed the plight of the franchise, the ownership and the organization.

The geeks on this blog can chatter all day about the prospects and"the Plan" but we are talking to ourselves in a vacuum while the fan base and inerest recedes every day.

I commute from York County, Pa to Timonium daily. When I moved up here from Baltimore 20 years ag this was Orioles Country. Brooks Robinson played minor league baseball in the arae and they recently unveiled a statue to him in the new stadium for the Independent league team, the York Revolution. I used to see people all over York wearing Oriole Caps and Oriole jackets. Local bars used to organize bus trips to Oriole games in baltimore. Those days are over. If you see baseball caps on people up here anymore{other than mine} they are Phillies paraphanalia. Becausethey win.

Peter Angelos let his son negotiate the radio coverage of the Orioles. As a result, the orioles lost their flagship station, WBAL 1090 with 50,000 watts. It used to carry all the way to Reading PA. John Angelos, in his brilliance, broke it up into a bunch of 5,000 watt stations all over the arae so that as you drive you have to switch stations to find the games.

I have to switch three times between Timonium and Harrisburg. Most people in York County don't even bother anymore, and many up here think the Orioles are not on the radio in the area.

We the baseball geeks think we see hope, but what we see see a mirage that is slowly evaporating as the Orioles pile one losing season on another.

I spent the afternoon yesterday watching the 1970 Os win the first game of the WS against the Reds. I watched Brooks and Boog and Jim make this city proud...wish I could say it feels like it was yesterday, but it didn't. It felt like a lifetime ago.
I'm an old O fan, sat in Memorial Stadium in section 34 with Wild Bill and company for 60 to 70 games a year - the Os were part of the fabric of this city. For better or worse we endured with their play on the field, screaming for Eddie or Cal or encouraging Ken to hit it in the bullpen.

Sad to say, when I attend Camden Yards, that no longer exists. More yanks and sox than Os and the feeling is just flat...no emotion, its all mechanical....down to the ushers.

I mention all this because I think all of us who took the time to comment on this blog - love our Os, yet, feel conflicted over their direction. AM seems like a great guy, educated, well spoken and intelligent. But, what he lacks, at least to me, is the ability to go out on a limb and make the bold move.

I think the Os will be better this year...hard to get any worse, but in the end it boils down to - will AM/Pete ever spend the money to bring in the high priced talent - whether its Fielder or Gonzo, or Lee someday soon he's going to have to either admit we will never be in that market or take a stand and commit to winning, no matter the cost.

I hope its the latter. Like all of you I love the Os, and it sure would be nice to watch a meaningful Os game with real Os fans at Camden some day soon!

Gil,

Your 9:28 post was easily the best post I've ever read, as pertaining to the Orioles.

You spoke from an angle that drives the warehouse absolutely nuts. Because of your proximity, your corporate experience and because you're simply a fan, your post helps to define the current demise of the Oriole organization.

To follow though, will be the positive bloggers who simply don't understand the importance of your experience.

Yours is a story that the media should be all over. While they won't touch the issue of PA's son directly, they could/should write around the issue so that O's fan can get a glimpse of what's really going on.

I get why they don't go there though Gil.... The risk are just too high! The team is run completely differently than it was during the 90's. Does PA have final say on huge deals? Yes? He in no way runs the day to day operation however, and is strongly, strongly influenced by his son.

The fact that stories aren't written about why this team is 26th our of 30 in payroll in an embarrassment to the city of baltimore. Instead, we get stories about how AM got PA to open up his wallet to pay Roberts and Markakis. What you won't read is how the warehouse had no choice but to pay both, especially since they never took a serious swing at Tex. They have to field a team but they don't want to be the last or next to last payroll in baseball. They realize even the most positive would wake up to such...

Baltimore is not a small market everyone. Many of you talk like they are however. Developing young players are obvious keys to any clubs eventual success. Surrounding said youngsters with the garbage this team continually embarrasses baltimore with however, should be a wake up call for even the most positive.

Thanks for the post Gil! You simply have facts and lots and lots of 'L's' on your side.

There is definitely passion about the Orioles, and whenever trades/signings occur, these passions flare up...both positively and negatively. I do believe the Orioles are going in the right direction. Historically, we've had, at least in the 30 years I've been a fan, a poor history when it comes to making splashy free agent signings and trades. Glenn Davis? Or the 80s years with signings like Alan Wiggins, Lee Lacy, Don Aase, Tom Niedenfurer (or Niedenfutile as he was called), Doug Corbett, Sid Fernandez. And let's not forget the baseball abortion which was Albert Belle. When the Orioles have been great, it was when they built from within...Mike Flanagan, Mike Boddicker, Cal Ripken, guys who came up through the system. That is, in essence, truly the ORIOLE WAY. And in my opinion, that's the way to return to greatness. Keep putting those millions into the farm system...and EXPAND that system. Start reaching out to other countries, China, Russia, find NEW markets for players, start baseball schools ala the Kansas City baseball academy in these foreign lands, take a tip from Cal Ripken who keeps globehopping, bringing baseball to people, building an interest...followup on that interest by starting teams. And believe me, in time, we will get to the World Series again. Merry Christmas and happy holidays to everyone!

Gil:
I'm with you on the debacle that resulted in the O's leaving WBAL. If you want an idea of the real reach of that station, I could listen to games up here in Vermont after the sun went down. Of course in the height of summer that often meant not being able to tune in until the 7th inning or so, but I still got to hear them. I can now occasionally get the station out of Salisbury whose call letters I have forgotten, also only at night and never as clearly and consistently as WBAL.
There does seem to be a bigger network of stations now, but I do miss the big powerhouse of WBAL. I had listened to the O's on that station since I was a child.

Excellent post Gil!
The Angelos family has reduced this once proud franchised into a novelty act and has the nerve to try to sell the fans this ridicules 10 year rebuilding distraction.

Great post Gil
All I would like to see of this “plan” is the team go over 500. That’s it! I am in no rush to for the Orioles to make the playoffs or win a World Series because those achievements take time but at this point I think we need to see the record go above 500 this season. You cannot have 3 years of moral victories when the record keeps getting worse and we avoid free agents that could make us better. Things just have to change at the end of this season if improvement isn’t made.

The fact the Orioles brought back Dave Trembley was a clear message they don’t give a damn about the record and will lose as cheaply as possible. Not sure if they are waiting for perfect conditions to land big time FAs and a great manager in one swoop but with the history of the Angelos family you have to logically think they are putting on a show.

Not just the fact they brought back McTrembley and as much as I like Kakes he is not the guy to carry a team in the AL East and is not the face of a franchise. He is a damn good player but he is not the elite player that can raise the level of play on a team. Maybe that’s the Orioles problem they don’t want to get a legitimate cleanup hitter because they think Kakes or Wieters can be that guy and maybe they will be but it wouldn’t hurt to go out and sign a one this season to at least a one year deal. This Atkins signing to me makes no sense.

Orioles will be ready to compete (2011) when the Tillmans, Matuszs, Bergys, etc., get another year to develop. AM got us an innings eater and a 3rd baseman for a stop gap. I think AM will hit the free-agent market hard after this season to fill the gaping holes, if any.

As much as I appreciate Andy MacPhail's approach to building a long term winner, I think that, with the way the market is playing out, it's time to offer that big contract to Matt Holliday.

And here are my three reasons why:

1. Holliday is a legitimate power threat. The kind of guy pitchers don't want to face. The kind of guy the Orioles haven't had since the first Rafael Palmiero era and, to a lesser extent, Albert Belle.

2. Signing Holliday will give the O's flexibility to let Nolan Reimold start the year at DH and maybe give him some reps at first base. Or, it would allow them to use Reimold as one of the headliners in a trade for Adrian Gonzalez.

3. This one is by far the most important. Signing Holliday will show the fans that Peter Angelos is still willing to spend money to make this team better.

So, come on Peter (Angelos, that is). Come on Andy. Toss out a six year, $115M deal. If that doesn't get the job done, bump it up to $125M.

Sure, it may sting to pay a guy $20M per. But that'll bump the payroll up to what, $90M? The team spent more than that in 2007 on a bunch of garbage.

Sure, it'll tie up a bunch of money as well. But Matt Holliday will make this team better. And we all know that Angelos has been willing, in the past, to spend a lot of money on a good team.

And besides, most of the young guys are still under team control for four or five more years. And if the team improves, you can probably go the Evan Longoria route and lock up guys like Wieters, Matusz, Jones, etc through their arbitration years so that, if those guys are ever deserving of a monster contract, Holliday will be off the books by that time.

Let's see it happen. The Cardinals are sitting on thier hands. The Yankees are lurking in the shadows. Offer up the big deal that Holliday and Boras can't refuse and bring some life back into this city.

Gil,

Now there you go!

It won't happen though. In fact, it won't even get in the vicinity of happening. It's the last thing AM will go to the Angelos family with and it's the last thing the Angelos 'family' would approve.

This team should be spending at least 80m now, with the idea that they'll go at least 25m higher in 2011. That would be 'in line' for a market of this size.....not debatable!

Holliday will NOT happen, and they certainly won't make a move to acquire AG.

Great post Brooksie. Reality is however, any moves AM makes from here will simply be made to fill the roster, while selling the fans on youth and has beens

Atkins may actually bat #4 in this line-up. Or it could be Wiggy or Scott! Can anyone see what that does to the rest of the line-up?

Sorry Brooksie, there is less than 0% chance Holliday will be coming to the yard.

Pete,
I think the plan is working but it has suffered some setbacks. The initial setback was the lost of Adam Loewen in 2008. In 2009, Alfredo Simon, Rich Hill and Koji Uehara were out most of the year. Plus Bergesen, McCory and Mickolio went down near the end of the year. It looks as if 2010 is the pivotal year. The 3 new vets are sure to help. But it's important that the development of the younger players continues. Hernandez, Berken, Tillman and Matusz all came up to the majors much sooner than expected. I dont expect the Orioles to keep with the Yankees or Res Sox - the team is too young. But they should be compettive with most other teams.

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year!

Pete,

It looks like our sister team at MASN, the NATs have taken the aggressive offseason in acquiring Capps, Marquise and Gourdado! I guess we went on holiday vacation far to soon! In South Central PA we have a few sayings; 1) He who hesitates is lost 2) the early bird gets the worm!

I hope the warehouse had a nice party and enjoys the holidays!

To beat the Yankees and Red Sox, the Orioles have to BE the Yankees and Red Sox. That means strong pitching AND disciplined, strong offense (all the good Oriole teams were strong on the mound and at the plate, ranking at or near the top of the league in ERA and runs scored.) Obviously, we can't do it by buying the best hitter and pitcher available each offseason, and trading for expensive help every July - Andy will have to be judicial WRT to those methods.

We can, however, do what we're doing - develop quality players, and then supplement them with a few expensive free agents when the time is right. We can also improve by doing what the Yankees do throughout their system - stress the importance of plate discipline, patience, and the value of drawing walks, all of which improve offense by making hitters better, making pitchers work harder, and increasing scoring opportunities. Atkins is yet another low-OBP guy added to a team that has consistently ranked low in OBP and runs scored during the string of losing seasons, along with the pitching woes. Our top OBP guy in 2009 barely posted a higher number than the Yankees TEAM OBP. This is something we can improve without spending money, and it should be done.

Tony P in AZ,

I've been an Orioles fan since 1964, lived in and followed closely the AL East for 45 years. I've seen good front offices and bad front offices, and while I hear you that paying for our own in required, to you I say inflation. The inflation rate in the AL East is much higher, like real estate in NY City or Washington DC compared to sale the mid west. Yes we need to keep our own, but when your in the bottom 4 teams in salary, but your at about 12th in market size, your FO is not allowing you to be competive. And to ever get good players to look at Baltimore, they need to show a strong committment to winning. ESPN says the murder rate in Baltimore is 6 times the national average, I'm suggesting the O's only spend to their capabilities not to the level of profit maximization. But hey, why should they,due to their MASN deal through the MLB - PA can continue to get back at MLB and Bud Selig by making MLB pay them for their losses when in fact their financial losses are directly related to the losses on the field and terrible managment and spending. Face it our team is CHEAP!

Gil & Brooksie,

That 'There you go' was obviously meant for not brooks. Sorry!

I think everybody needs to stop looking @ Atkin's last three years. Look @ Aubrey Huff. He didnt have the stellar numbers b4 we signed him. He had that one career year & then tapered off. When we signed Aubrey Huff, he had a career year with us. Garrett Atkins is in the same position to do the same & Camden Yards in smaller gap to gap than Coors Field so just sit back and allow the guy to do his thing & I garuntee that he will have a good season!

Gee Jeremy,

I feel so much better now. You're so right about the gap to gap advantage at Camden. And the fact that his pre 2009 numbers were inflated due to the Denver air means nothing......

So sit back everyone, here comes a 2008 Huff type of year, which was one of the best individual years of any Oriole in the last decade.

Then when he does deliver, let's get excited about the great prospects we'll get for him when he's traded. After all, his stock will surely rise meaning he will no longer fit in the Oriole PLAN.

Atkins in the 4-hole! Watch out!

"It looks like our sister team at MASN, the NATs have taken the aggressive offseason in acquiring Capps, Marquise and Gourdado! I guess we went on holiday vacation far to soon!"

How is signing two relievers and a starter more aggressive than trading for a starter and signing a reliever and a third baseman?

Atkins was not signed for the 4 hole people, not even a birdbrain would expect a guy to make a complete turnaround with that kind of burnden on his shoulders. Del Gado or Laroche (my preference by far) are on their way so JUST relax arleady, drink some eggnog and hum a cheery seasonal tune cause right now, everyone is tied.
Start to dream if you will about a rotation sans Adam Eaton and Mark Hnedrickson. That fact right there is reason for glee. Not to mention the SERIOUS promise of Matusz and Tillman. Guthrie will rebound in the 2 slot, count on it, his stuff and chatacter are way too good. WE DO NEED that PROFESSIONAL GRADE BIG BOPPER THO, or I too will have abandoned ship!
HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ONE AND ALL!

A bit off topic here, at least were we as posters have taken the discussion, but I wanted to share this link with everyone. It's the Bowie Baysox manager talking about all the pitchers that passed through Bowie last year and I found the article, in particular the manager's candidness, very interesting.

Hope I'm not stepping on your toes Mr. Schmuck by posting a link from another local blog but I really wanted to share this one with all the guys out there.

http://masnsports.com/2009/12/talking-bowie-baysox-pitching.html

djph;

Thanks for the link. Good read.

Tony P in AZ,

U asked if Seattle wants a do over. Its ironic becuase I was talking to a friend today about them. They made a trade and it didnt work out. THEY TOOK A SHOT and I cant blame them, they thought that Erika was the Pitcher to put them over the hump. Nothing brings more glee to the hearts of the apologists than AM's fleecing of the M's. The Kool Aid drinkers always cite that as an example on y u dont give up prospects. Lets take a look at that theory a little more closely

Seattle had a terrible yr and lost 95 games that year but here it is ONLY 2 season later and they are GOING ALL IN TO MAKE THIS PLAYOFFS THIS YEAR and we're in it late last yr. That trade was supposed to set that organization back a decade. Well, i Hate to tell you, but it looks to me like the Mariners are contenders again and it didnt take 12 friggin yrs. I know I know, but they dont play in the ALeast. Theres always sn EXCUSE in TURDLAND.

I just dont get it, yr in and yr out we keep hearing about how we're going to compete, really just wait. But then Im reminded of things said in the past such as:

We want to be right on the heels of the Yankees and the Red Sox ... or right in their faces - Peter Angelos, Sept 24, 2004

Baltimore is a great baseball town, with great fans, a beautiful ballpark and a good organization. We will get the players necessary to be successful." - Peter Angelos, Sept 2005

The Orioles intend to acquire additional players in the postseason to improve the team's offense and pitching. We intend to be competitive in the new season, and we expect our young players to be especially productive with the experience they have gained from last season
- Peter Angelos, Nov 18, 2002

Success was promised but never came

Im always puzzled by ppl's assumptions that MacPhails "plan" is really about "long term success", when in fact macpahil has NEVER HAD LONG TERM SUCCESS anywhere he has been. He has had 8 winning and 16 losing seasons as GM.. Its such a blatant misconception not based remotely in reality, yet its repeated over and over.........Look up his record and you'll see.

Pete/Everyone,

I truly want to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Also just to provide you what might be the funniest thing I've seen in months, check out Dean Johnson's minor league signing of an Australian LHRP. Between Dean write up and the comments that bloggers provided do a great job of summerizing all that the O's are doing!

Not Brooks,

Last I checked Marquise was an All-star last year, were any of the non-tendered rejects we got sniffing an all-star game? They have a run producer in Dunn, one of the best 3b in the game and their own stud who throws 100 MPH fastball!.

It's time y'all stop with the orange Kool Aid and look what happening around us. As most on this blog like to compliment AM for fleecing the M's their a helluva lot closer to winning a division than the O's have been despite the so called fleecing! I can only figure most of you like losing!

A Fan,

I like the way you think! The future is NOW!

Keith -

You're basing your opinion of Marquis on one season? Can I do that too? I'll choose 2006, when he put up a 6.02 ERA.

And speaking of non-tendered rejects, Matt Capps was non-tendered as well. I guess that's why you made it plural, since the Orioles have only signed one non-tender player.

On to Eddie Guardado, the guy is 38 years old. He should have retired after the 2006 season. Talk about rejects...

Come on, man. To say that the Nats are in a better position than the O's is ridiculous.

I really like what I'm reading......

Fans trying to take back their team. Fans finally holding the warehouse accountable. Fans standing up to the lies once and for all.....

The PA lies have been printed for all to see. The AM record has finally been described for what it is.....

Believe me all, if enough people stand up to the warehouse and if the media finally grows a set, maybe they'll get fed up and either 1) commit to real change or, 2) sell the team. Either way, we'll all win!

FInally, the truth is out blogging the positives warehousers and reality is drowning out the lies.

Keep it up everyone.... You have years and years of facts and 'L's' on your side.

It's a start....

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I'm not sure how you "take back" the team by not supporting it, but I'll leave that to you to figure out. I'm guessing if you succeeded in what you're suggesting, it would simply guarantee that the team is terrible in perpetuity, since MLB -- in the Nats settlement --guaranteed the O's a minimum level of value and insured the team against huge losses.

I tend to think Bay would be the better fit than Holliday. Bay has put up some pretty sick numbers consistantly and will be a bit cheaper than Holliday. He's snubbing the Mets and Boston simply can't afford him (they have $5mm left for 2010 I read on espnboston).

I still think any OF signing should be followed with an A Gonzalez offer again. One of them makes us better. Two of them makes us relevant. Two also gets people outside this blog thinking about the team again.

Also, the Nationals are not in a better place than the Orioles. I'm not sure what color Kool Aid that would be, but I sure hope it wasn't made with water from the Anacostia.

Merry Christmas to all!

According to the St Louis Cardinals website and mlb.com (see Harold Reynolds comment), the Cards have offered Holliday an eight year deal at $16 mil per. (Yikes. Wonder if he needs a chaffeur?) I can't see the O's matching that offer. Can any of you?

Merry Christmas everybody! Did Santa bring us a legitimate power hitting first baseman? Mr. Angelos better check under his tree...then again, since most posters on this blog probably would file PA under "NAUGHTY" he'll probably find Buddy Biancalana and Andres Mora there instead. While I'm definitely alot more positive about the Orioles than some of the naysayers out there, one point I will admit--the B.S. that the Orioles can't spend on par with the Yankees and Red Sox et al is ridiculous. PA ain't exactly on the road to the poor house. The issue, however, is getting the top of the line players to want to come here. I think the strides we are making will benefit us in showing top players that we are becoming competitive and that makes us more attractive. Finally, Pete, any word on (1) the Bedard front and (2) that Cuban pitcher we've supposedly been courting? Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays everybody!

Jason,
Why is AM wearing those two rings?
That's not success?
Boy, I'd hate to try to measure up to your standards.....

bill frederick

That will not happen in Baltimore. AM will be gone in 2 years and we will have to form a new plan. Hopefully it involves Peter Angelos selling the team to someone who wants to take the Orioles out of the basement.

I went to Tides games and Orioles games last season and the Tides was an all around better buy ! LOL

Merry Christmas to evereyone on the blog, and to the owner of the most popular blog in town, Peter the Great.

As my family gathers and sits down to dinner shortly, I have asked Grandpop, in his blessing this year to ask that Orioles end the periennial losing and stop the streak at 12 years.

I figured it will take divine intervention as the owner of the team and the GM do not seem to share the same sense of urgency.

And to Peter Angelos, may you be visited by three ghosts tonight.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Gil, Merry Christmas to you, too. I once wrote a column about three ghosts visiting Peter Angelos on Christmas Eve. Didn't go over very well at the Law Office or the Warehouse.

In the holiday spirit, how about a blog entry titled My Favorite Things. That should wrap it all up quite nicely.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all.

bill f

Ive never tried to take away AM's rings although, u could make the argument that he didnt have a whole lot to do with the 1st one since it came after only 1 yr with the twins.

MacPhails record is not a matter of opinion, its a matter of fact. Most ppl just dont bother to look at his record, They just say he's better than his predecessors and I say it would be nearly impossible not to be, especially considering how hamstrung previous GMs were

Bill, look up his record and tell me if he's had any "long term success" after you take a look at where his teams finished in the standings. He's had 8 winning and 16 losing seasons as GM/CEO. For the cubs, in the "weak " NL Central- where the Cubs are flushed with resources and have a shrine for a stadium, the CUbs had 5 winning and 7 losing seasons. When he resigned from the Cubs in 2006, the CUbs had the worst record in the NL and won only 66 games that year. He had .475 winning pct while in charge of the CUbs and more losing seasons than winning ones

I apologize if facts get in the way of a reputation that just doesnt exist. Mac Phail is definitely not known for "long term success" because hes never actually obtained it. If u bothered to look up his record, you couldnt reasonably argue against it. IF u looked at his record that is.....

Merry CHristmas, may your stockings be stuffed with a great "Holliday" present. Just dont hold your breath

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Before you blame Andy for the Cubs, consider that he did get them within a deflected foul ball of their first World Series appearance in 60 years or so. And, to be fair, if you're going to discount his first world title with the Twins because he was only GM a year or so, then how can you rip him for not winning in just two years in Baltimore? Can't have it both ways.

The main hope I see is in several years as the players the Yanks have signed to long term contract start falling off THEN maybe the O's can win for a year or so like the Rays. Only if the O's can keep their young team together for that long. While I like what Andy has done with the farm system, he still has away to go to built a winner in Baltimore which the City and Fans deserve. I'm not sure that PA is too cheap to sign a major player or if Andy is just TOO conservative.

Jason says
"Macphails record is not a matter of opinion, It's a matter of fact."

Very true. So the World Series rings are FACTS and legitimate and so is the FACT that he bought the Cubs to a deflected fly ball to their first World Series in how many years?
Those are facts my friend. I hope he can duplicate those FACTS here.
Your OPINION is he didn't have so much to do with the FACTS of TWO World Series rings. I'll take the FACT he won them over your OPINION of how much he had to do with them

Jason,
The previous post was in fact me. I guess that leaves me with only a .500 record today on successful posting.

Jason and other AM bashers,

You should check out Pat Gillicks first tenure with the Blue Jays. Did you know in his first 7 years as Assistant and as GM they finished in last place for 7 straight years and lost over 100 games in three of those years? Was he really incompetent then or was he building something for the future. If you really want to throw in the record of the O's for the past two years and credit that to AM's account you can do that. But if you do, then don't turn around and not give him credit for winning a World Series after only a year on the job.
If you and others don't see the dramatic improvement in the organization since he took over you are either not looking at the right things or simply are too blind to see for whatever reason.
Ask any person in the business who knows about winning baseball and building organizations and they will tell you the O's are on the right track. It's easy to just sit back and take pot shots at others.
BTW, I don't care if the O's sign Matt Holiday. I trust what Macphail will do. His track record here and with other teams has earned him that right.
FACT UPDATE: TWO RINGS To W and all the others who want to give up Matusz and Tillman and Weiters (yes, slight exageration) for Gonzales and sign Matt Holliday for 8 years, I am so glad you are only posting and not running things

All of you with the Kool Aid references do know that refers to a mass suicide in which 918 people died, right? Just saying.

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Is it too soon?

Pete,
I think this team, even if McPhail doesn't make any more FA signings or Major trades, has the potential to win more consistently than any Oriole team since the steriod scandal rocked the baseball world. I also think it will be a consistently improving team in 2010 and 2011.

Happy Holidays to you and yours!

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Happy holidays to you, too. I think the team is better (how could it not be) and will be more consistent day to day, but that isn't going to translate into a big win total unless every domino falls in place. Since that almost never happens, I'll settle for real, observable progress that puts them in position to buy their way into real wild card contention in 2011.

Bill F,

I dont know how to take you seriously when you choose to ignore the facts. I have no doubt that you probably never bothered to look at macphails numbers.

Let me break it down for you again, because even tho Im certain that you are impervious to reason, there may be some ppl who will use the information to make a more informed opinion. BTW

In 12 yrs with the Cubs, Macphail's teams came in last place 4 of 12 seasons and it could have easilty been 5 last places finishes. Luckily for Dandy Andy the brewers posted 106 losses in 02 to keep dandy andy's cubs out of the basement despite losing 95 games that yr. Only 5 of 12 winning season. Only 1 of 12 seasons finished in 1st place

Under MacPhail, the cubs won 90 games only once. In 12yrs, they finished in 1st place only ONCE. They only had 2 winning seasons in a row, a feat that was accomplished ONCE. He had 94 or more losses 5 times in 12 seasons. His best yr, he won 90 games. He had seasons where he lost 94,95,97,95 and finally 96 in his final season when he resigned. Those 94 loss team came 3 yrs in, so u cant blame him for what he inherited in CHicago. MacPhail did help improve PROFITABILITY in CHitown though.

Keep telling me how andy is a consistent winner and Ill tell you to stop telling LIES

Jason,
I never said he was a "consistent winner". So you can't really call someone a liar for something they never said now can you?

What I said was.. he has won 2 WORLD SERIES RINGS.

Name me all the current GM's in baseball who have won more than 2 World Series rings...

Yeah, I'll stick with Macphail because I think he has another World Series ring coming his way here in Balto.

These successful GM's (by successful I mean those who have won a couple WS rings) have a tendency to duplicate their very savvy job skills wherever they go.

I don't think I've told any lies in this post.

Now if you had a GM with the record Macphail has and he HADN'T WON 2 WORLD SERIES RINGS, you might have reason to be impatient as to not notice the vast improvements he has bought here. Since he has IN FACT WON 2 WORLD SERIES RINGS, shouldn't you just let the man do his job?

FACT ALERT>..ANDY MACPHAIL has WON 2 World Series rings. How many does Billy Beane have?

By the way.... who is your favorite current GM anyway? I hope he has more than 2 WORLD SERIES RINGS (one for each hand).

I'm a lifetime fan, but also a realist.The O's are a bunch of misfits and ne're do wells,and will never compete in this devision unless they spend freely to get the players needed. Growing from within will garner you a fluke season maybe, without buying some big name players.The Oriole way is a thing of the past. Existing players seem depresed and listless,and no one wants to come here to play. Yanks, Red Socks, "BIG MONEY".O's not so much. Perhaps I've just become too cynical after all the years. Merry Christmas everybody.

You Know Jason,
Even when tho O's make the playoffs this year and maybe win a world sereis next year, under your criteria, you can still call AM a failure because of the overall won loss record.

I'd rather focus on the FACTS OF TWO WORLD SERIES RINGS.

You would rather focus on the facts of his not so stellar overall record. Have at it. But you know it seems to me if you look at all the facts, the Cubs haven't exactly lit the baseball world on fire for what......100 years? And you want to rail on one who got them as close as they have been in 100 years? Have at it.

Also, please tell me who you would rather have at GM right now?

MacPhail has 2 WS rings, Ive never disputed that. That was another time and another place and a lot of losing has happened since then.Im not disputing the rings or ancient history. Youre the one whose disputing or ignoring everything thats happened since then. He left the Cubs a loser with a .475 winning pct.

How can u focus on the 2 WS rings with the twins over 2 decades ago but ignore his most recent history ? Thats genius, lol . SInce the 91 WS, he has 6 winning and 12 losing seasons or 1 of every 3 season produced a winning record. thats a lot of LOSING

He won in 1987 even though he was only there for a yr ,so its not a stretch to say he won with someone else's players. Not to mention that 1987 team made the playoffs with only 85 wins. There were 5 teams in the ALeast with a better record. At that time, home field advantage alternated, so Minny got lucky and had home field advantage for the playoffs and the World Series despite being the team in the postseason with the fewest wins. The metrodome is considered the best home field advantage in MLB history. He won in 1991 and I cant take anything away from him for that but He's milked that for almost 20 yrs now. He was a loser in CHicago in his last attempt at running a franchise and only came in 1st place once in 12 yrs, while losing 94+ games 5 times in 12 years, and had 7 of 12 losing seasons. U may choose to ignore an entire decade and a half of losing, but not me

HE HAS DONE ALOT MORE LOSING THAN WINNING SINCE 1991 AND THE NUMBERS DONT LIE. I get it, you ignore his most recent failures in favor of something that happened a much longer time ago...makes sense. YOuve obviously done some painstaking analysis to reach that conclusion. Bertrand Russell once said " People would rather die than think, in fact most do " Seems appropriate for this discussion

He was a self described failure during his tenure in CHicago. In Chicago, the Cubs had the most resources in the division and there wasnt the Sux and the Skanks standing between him and winning. In the NL central, he only managed 2 winning seasons in a row in 2003/04. In CHicago his seasons were as followed : W,L,L,W,L,L,W,L,W,W,L,L

He lost 2 of his last 3 in MN and hasnt come close to winning here either. Dont stop beLIEving

IF AM couldnt win in the NLCentral,despite having inferior competitiion and vastly superior resources to the other teams in the division, why would any rational person think his approach will work in the ALeast with superior competiton? (he lost his last 2 seasons in MN too)

Oh he won a WS 20 yrs ago so its only natural to ignore everything thats happened since then. I guess it easier to ignore facts u dont like rather than acknowledging them. Ive often suspected apologists werent really familiar with AM's track record, now I know it.. Hey, he won a WS 19 yrs ago , but hasnt been back since, but the only logical assumption is that he'll be back to the WS, I mean he has to, he did it 19 yrs ago, just ignore that hes only had 6 of 18 winning seasons since then. The better predictor is what happened a longer tiime ago LMAO

I mean he won the WS almost 20yrs ago, he has to go back, no matter whats happened more recently. that may indicate otherwise, Sounds about right. Ignore the fact that, he's only had 6 winning and 12 losing seasons since then.

pete, happy holidays to you and your family.

i know this is random, but i'm just wondering. is wieters changing his number back to 32? i saw on mlb.com it said he was number 32, but other sites still had it has 15. just wondering if you knew anything about it. thanks.

bill frederick:

Another point about AM. When he took over the Cubs, they'd had losing records in 8 of the previous 10 years. With the Os, it was 10 out of 10. What ever he has won has not been by riding the coattails of someone else's work. Some GM's who end up with gaudy career records are more fortunate.

Jason,

You won't answer the simple question..
Who would you rather have right now???...

And I hope its someone who has a WORLD SERIES ring on each finger.

We are on a great track and I look forward to AM with a 3rd ring on his finger within a year or two!!!!!

as far as all your other stats...pretty ridiculous stuff.. It's baseball man...you can't win all the time...I'm so glad you are pster on a blog and not making any actual decisions...

Why not post the first 7 years of Gillick in Toronto
LLLLLLL so What?????? Is he a loser also?

"Andy's the best GM in baseball"
OPINION of Bill Frederick Dec 09

Andy Macphail- One of only 3 current GM's to have won at least 2 World Series FACT submitted by Bill of Frederick!!!!

Bill F,

I just caught your assertion that the Os will make the playoffs this yr and the WS next yr. LOL

Ill tell u what, Ill bet u anything. Ill even give you generous odds and hope that u win

Id be willing to bet vital organs, money, you name it. You havent realized yet that Andy's solving the clean up hitter problem with a guy who battted .226 last yr,have you ? Dont worry, the crow will straighten him out, lmao. Lighteneing in a bottle is cheaper than consistency

U probaly believe that the Os CANT spend any more money. even though they are the one team that can do so without ANY risk attached. The Os could spend like a drunken sailor and ahve every FA be a colossal bust and still be ok.

PPl always 4get that settlement Greedy Petey made with MLB. No matter what, he'll make 360 million selling the Os and he only paid 170 mill. Not bad, u get over 200% profit after running the franchise into the ground

Im starting to think wayne might be on to something about warehouse employees posting here

I deduce from your inability to answer the simple question of who would be abetter GM you are definitely stumped and have no good answer. I am not surprised as people like you and Wayne and Keith Rowe can only throw out criticisms and attacks and can't even come up with a simple answer to a simple question.

You against people making money also I see.....

I can't really continiue this line unless you tell me who you would rather have for the GM right now.....only it should be someone with a track record of winning A COUPLE WORLD SERIES RINGS.

And yes, I am very hopeful for the playoffs this year... because "hope springs eternal" as someone said..

You can choose to lay in bed and curse the rich evil people in the guarded fortress you call "the warehouse" but it must be pretty miserable in there..

I am very positive about the O's direction..
And guess what....If I'm wrong, big deal... It won't make me hate Angelos or Macphail, cause guess what....It's a GAME!!!!!

P.S. I think it's a good thing Angelos is rich because he can employ a whole bunch of people and give them good paying jobs. It's called capitalism

you should google the term "Capitalism" sometime

Bill of Frederick,

Ive always been wary of ppl from places where there are water towers visible-- you've done nothing to change my mind

I would caution u against driving after so much egg nog, but I suspect that youre on something much stronger and its definitely not legal

mcphail won the WS in 1991, but has had 6 of 18 winning seasons since then, yet goofy bill still thinks another WS is imminent.--- u cant make this up. APparently a WS from a different era is a better indicator of what is going to happen than the most recent 18 yrs of a person's career.

Im glad you're just some inebriated poster on a msg board and not running things-- See i can say that too, even though it still sounds stupid- I never understood why ppl say that and think that there "getting" someone. LMAO

Bill

Im sure you're some big capitalist, lol. Was that a vocabulary word for u this wk or something ?

Ol Silly HillBilly isnt upset about the plight of the O's, he's too young to even know what he's missing. He wont be upset if the O's dont win, i mean if that doesnt scream undying devotion, what does ?

Im going to "google" capitalism. That Silly (hill)billy really knows how to stick it to a guy. MUAUAHAHAHAHAHA

But he wont be upset if the Os fail to turn it around. Hes too big of a fan to actually care about what happens to them. AS long as he does well in his XBox O's, he's OK. The true definition of the term "fanatic" if ever ever seen it

Gil said
~~Here is why it is critical that the Orioles try to move the timetable up and start winning in 2010: The fan base is dying, interest on the team is on the wane, and people in the Baltimore area have dicovered other things to do.~~

And this will last until the team wins.
Whenever that is, the fans will come back and forget all of the stuff you are whining about today. Happens almost everywhere all the time.

~~This is not an ancedote. I manage a medium size company in Timonium, just north of baltimore. I have maintained a corporate season ticket plan for 25 Years with the Orioles. There were times when I had some extra tickets not designated for clients and my employees would put in for them and scarf them up

In recent years, I have a diffficult time giving the tickets to clients as perks, and I can't even get my employees to take them anymore. The only tickets in demand are the Yankees/Red sox tickets and those are requested by out of town clients months in advance. I only bought a 15 game plan this year for our four seats and our comptroller is all over me to put the marketing money somewhere else.~~

Actually that is the very definition of anecdotal:
1 a : of, relating to, or consisting of anecdotes b : anecdotic 2
2 : based on or consisting of reports or observations of usually unscientific observers
3 : of, relating to, or being the depiction of a scene suggesting a story

~~We people on this blog are baseball geeks and are not represenataive of the local fan base to any degree. We are an abberation and I'll wager that many who post here are from out of the area and follow the team more based on nostalgia and rotieserrie interests. ~~

Personally I would classify those who are rotisserie.fantasy Bill James devotees the baseball geeks, but I follow your point.

~~For those who work and live here, ~~

Where is here? You live in York, about as far from Baltimore as I am in Rockville.

~~we know the awful truth.~~

You know YOR awful truth. It differs from mine.

~~Angelos has destroyed fan loylaty and interest and it would take a World series to stoke it up again.~~

Than it is not destroyed but merely, as I Pointed out previously dormant, waiting for a winner again.

~~I was talking Baeball in the Lunchroom the other day, chattering about Oriole's prospects and hopefuls such as Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Chris Tillman. My employees had no idea who they were. All they remember is Cal Ripken. That's pretty much where the clock stopped in this town.~~

Or maybe you just weren't talking to baseball fans? Non fans across the country know Cal Ripken but dont know Adam Jones.

~~Wayne, who posts here regularly has accurately diagnosed the plight of the franchise, the ownership and the organization.~~

In other words he agrees with you so therefore is a brilliant blogger who isnt on a smarmy crusade of character assasination of anyone connected with the Orioles, the local media and our host, Peter . . despite all facts pointing to the contrary.

~~The geeks on this blog can chatter all day about the prospects and"the Plan" but we are talking to ourselves in a vacuum while the fan base and inerest recedes every day.~~

Which is fine. Unlike you and Wayne, I do not believe in my divine right to interfere with how Peter Angelos runs his personal business/private property. I do not weigh in on his management of his law firm, though I might have my own opinions on it, and I dont weigh in on what color he should paint his rumpus room. They are his personal property and none of my business. He owns the Orioles, which try to market themselves to me. I have the right to buy or not to buy. I have my opinions and this blog is the place to express them. BUt those here who talk in terms of demanding such and such performance from Angelos are out of your ever loving minds. Those of you who expect him to open his books are plumb crazy. Those of you who confuse building a stadium and renting it to the team and gifting it to them are confused. I am here for enjoyment, not on some crusade. This blog enhances my enjoyment of the Orioles (sometimes). I dont treat it as a platform from which to attack Angelos (pater or familia), MacPhail, Schmuck or Tremblay.

~~I commute from York County, Pa to Timonium daily. When I moved up here from Baltimore 20 years ag this was Orioles Country. Brooks Robinson played minor league baseball in the arae and they recently unveiled a statue to him in the new stadium for the Independent league team, the York Revolution. I used to see people all over York wearing Oriole Caps and Oriole jackets. Local bars used to organize bus trips to Oriole games in baltimore. Those days are over. If you see baseball caps on people up here anymore{other than mine} they are Phillies paraphanalia. Becausethey win.~~

My family owned several properties in York and Harrisburg through the eighties until the mid nineties. The area was always at best 50/50 O's/Phillies. I was in the area monthly for more than a decade, And yes, you see Phillies gear today, I am sure. They are winning. It will flip around when the winning turns around. So no special urgency for the owners to be shortsighted and take risks to make it happen ahead of plan.

~~Peter Angelos let his son negotiate the radio coverage of the Orioles. As a result, the orioles lost their flagship station, WBAL 1090 with 50,000 watts. It used to carry all the way to Reading PA. John Angelos, in his brilliance, broke it up into a bunch of 5,000 watt stations all over the arae so that as you drive you have to switch stations to find the games.

I have to switch three times between Timonium and Harrisburg. Most people in York County don't even bother anymore, and many up here think the Orioles are not on the radio in the area.~~

This is not the fifties or sixties. In the cable/satellite TV, satellite radio, ESPN, baseball network era, the radio network and 50,000 watt flagship stations are relics.

~~We the baseball geeks think we see hope, but what we see see a mirage that is slowly evaporating as the Orioles pile one losing season on another.~~

Dont tell me what I think or see. I am perfectly capable of seeing and thinking for myself. I find it insulting that you think all of us are doddering fools who need you to think and speak for us or to lift the fog from our eyes and for Wayne to declare that anyone who does not agree with him is a "tool of the man".

Hey Guess what kind of odds you could have gotten on the Rays going to the World Series a couple years ago?
Yeah, that would have b
Sorry my friend, no drinking here just optimism...you ever heard of that?

So, only the "true fans" and "good fans" hate Peter and think AM is a loser....priceless

Actually Jason
My vocabulary lesson for this week has me looking at the phrase
"nattering nabobs of nagativism"
In my lesson plan there is a picture of you and Wayne and Keith frowning and throwing darts at a picture of Peter Angelos while wearing tee shirts saying "Macfail won his world series rings during the stone age".

Nice Post Lucky.
I too have run my own business for many years. I tend to think that those who are overly critical of PA and AM have for the most part never had to run a business and think it's like the government and we should just print money and everything will be ok. Just give Texiera 190 Mil and then give Holliday 8 years and 100 mil and trade Weiters and Tillman for Gonzales and these are the same people who when we don't have anything to spend in two years will talk about how stupid Andy is and how Peter has ruined the franchise.

Jason-
Just curious about your "most resources" reference to the Cubs whose owners recently filed for bankruptcy protection to protect the Cubs from the decade long or more hemhoraging of profits the Tribune has been going through. Are those the resources you were referring to?

I'll be in Coral Gables after New Years so you can leave your response for me on calle ocho

Lucky Horshoe,

Merry Christmas, and I didn't mean to strike a nerve so close to home.

Yes, Lucky, some people still listen to the old AM radio frequency, as much as the marketing drop outs like Greg Bader and Bill Stetka thought otherwise when they blew the radio deal. That debacle can not be defended by all of the Seriuss radio components within 400 miles of Television Hill.

I live in York, you visited. It was never Phillies Country until the Orioles, under the leadership of Peter Angelos destroyed, that's right, destroyed the franchise. He is the owner, by the way, isn't he? I don't think 12 losing seasons in a row is an anecdote. Har Har.

And, Lucky, all the team has to do is win to get the fans back, Huh? Duh, what a novel idea, winning for a change. Please pass that along to the geniuses at the warehouse and maybe they can do a powerpoint on the concept. It does happen in many Major League Cities with Major League organizations. Uh Oh, another nerve. sorry.

It's a good thing that the Nats moved in down the street. Made Peter A. wake up and realize that if they ever got better than the Orioles the Birds could rent CaL Ripken's joint and still have plenty of empty seats left.

I didn't say that you and those who think like you are doddering fools but I'll take your word for it if you insist.
.
Say hello to all of your friends in the organization when you get back to work and try not to type with your fists the next time.

All of you with the Kool Aid references do know that refers to a mass suicide in which 918 people died, right? Just saying.
.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Is it too soon?

That's really funny, Pete. My nephew committed suicide in 2003. He was twenty years old.

What's the statute of limitations on turning a tragedy into a witty catch all descriptor?

I can turn September 11th victims jumping to their death into a nice catch all. Is it too soon?

I understand it's a blog. I expect the random people on here to say off color things. It would be nice for an employee of a major newspaper to try and refrain from justifying the statements when not asked for his input, especially since he refrains from answering questions directed at him.

But hey, it's your blog. If you approve of people setting up a fight in a parking lot, personal attacks, name calling and the like, why would I think you'd understand that suicide tends to be a sensitive subject to many people?

Pete,

Many thanks to you for raising this issue which cuts to the heart of the Orioles' current situation. It certainly has provoked a lot of comments by fans with differing points of view. What's been impressive to me has been hearing from Bob C. (in Toronto), Jason in S. Fla, Tony in Arizona, and Chris in Hawaii. These are individuals who appear to not reside in Baltimore, but still have a deep connection to the Orioles....even if they are on opposite sides of this debate. There is still a lot of passion from those who comment here even if the general fan base appears to be losing interest....at least relative to it's support in the past.

Bob C. wrote about being competitive and Jason wrote about the need to pull the trigger now on a free agent or deal.
I think both of these points represent the dilemma for the Orioles.

Before I get into this, I'd like to mention a few items on which we can hopefully all agree. First, the Orioles have the misfortune of being in the AL East with the two biggest free annual spenders in all of baseball. On top of this, we play an unbalanced schedule which exacerbates the problem--sort of like living next door to the town bully who, due to proximity, has more opportunity to beat you up. However, the problem goes deeper than this. NY and Boston are the only teams in the Major Leagues with four elements that have a direct bearing on the way they do business.
First, the both have aggressive, competitive and outspoken ownership.
They also have young, dynamic and proactive management (Theo Epstein and Brian Cashman). They have very fervent fans who, not only sell out all home games, but also contribute to sell outs at visiting parks which dramatically increases team revenue. Last, they both have a very large, proactive and somewhat circumspect media that stirs the pot continually. On top of this, they have a genuine dislike for one another which results in them always trying to "one-up" the other. It's important to discern this because it's their operating mentality. Therefore, those here who believe that the Yankees will grow old and fall out of contention or that Boston will hit a financial wall and stop signing free agents or retaining their own key players, need to reread what I wrote above. Lest we forget, the Yankees ate
all of Carl Pavano's $38-40 million contract ( he gave them nothing over four years) and that didn't stop them from spending. I saw recently where for every 50 cents p/month increase to see Yankees games over YES, the team realizes $11 million in additional revenue. This IS our competition. Bottom line here is that both teams will continue to spend whatever it takes to compete against each other.

There are only three ways to build any business including a baseball team....
a) organically, by hiring and developing your own talent; b) externally, by bringing in seasoned, heavy hitters from the outside; or c) a combination of the two.
I think we all agree on "c" , but disagree on the numbers and timing.

If we understand who we're competing against and their operating mentality,
let's address Bob C's. "competitive" comment. First, does anyone know what this exactly means to the Orioles?
Roch Kubatko wrote earlier this week that Andy MacPhail said "we'd know it when we saw it". I assume Andy meant the team's management and not the fans. What I believe Andy has said is that when the Orioles are close, they'll
go after a high-end free agent who could put them over the top.

Personally, I do not think being competitive means an absolute number of wins. Instead, it comes down to a relative number of wins. If the Orioles go 81-81 and finish 7-8 games behind, they would be considered competitive. However, if they went 86-76 and finished 13-14 games behind, they would not be. So the challenge is to get to the point where we consistently will be competitive. However, given the operating mentality of NY and Boston, how exactly do we get there? I see this as the proverbial Catch-22 situation.
Without signing additional key pieces, we shall continue to make progress, but not appreciably close the gap. There is an important distinction to be made here between continuing to make progress and being competitive.

The Orioles ARE making progress. I believe Any MacPhail deserves a great deal of credit for rebuilding the farm system, helping to secure a better spring training facility, improving the video technology for the players, etc. All of these things happened on his watch and should not be minimized because none of his predecessors could do them. However, can any of us objectively say that the team is any closer to its goal of being more competitive?

I believe there is a misconception that, if the kids continue to develop, the team will be only that one key signing away from going over the top. I'm sure no one would argue that the Yankees were a better team than the Orioles at the end of the 2008 season, and they then went out and signed the top three free agents----CC, Tex and A J---to put them over. So far this off season, they have added an All-Star center fielder and a pitcher would is arguably as good as Millwood. Boston signed the top free agent pitcher and got a huge upgrade at shortstop in Scutaro. While the off season is not over---for any of the teams, does anyone feel we've become more competitive?

If you agree that the team is more than just a single piece away from being truly competitive, then the Orioles need to move now on acquiring additional top end talent. It's not just the added productivity achieved by that person
that will benefit the team. Upgrading the personnel also means that other players potentially become more productive because of the protection offered by the new guy.

When Nick Markakis came up, the talk from the Orioles was that, once he filled out, he could be a 30 hr, 120 rbi guy. Well, he hasn't come close to these home run numbers, but perhaps it's because he doesn't have a Matt Holliday or Adrian Gonzalez batting behind him.
[Remember, it wasn't until 5-6 weeks into last season and A-Rod returned to the Yankees line-up that Tex took off.]
The more powerful one's line-up, the better pitches everyone sees. In the 2009 Yankees line-up, there were no easy outs. Opposing pitchers had to pitch to every hitter.

Signing impact players that conceivably improve your ability to be competitive also sends a message to every future
free agent that Baltimore is a desirable destination. [Let's not forget that the top free agents are going to get their money. What they also want, as most recently expressed by Roy Halladay, is "to be on a team that has a real chance to win every year." And if you want to know what happens when they get the first without the second, see Miggy.] This is why NY and Boston are the preferred destinations now. While their business models don't insure championships (as anything can happen in a 5 or 7 game series), it does seem to translate into making the playoffs over a 162 game season. It's not a fluke that NY has been in the post-season 14 out of the past 15 years. If we truly want to compete, we have to exhibit the same mentality that our competitors do. We can't slug it out with them for every player, but If we can sign a key piece now (since they may not be involved) and our kids continue to develop in 2010, perhaps then adding another key piece after next year gets us very close. If, instead, we rely primarily on our youth and we improve to 21 games behind NY instead of 31, we shall continue to hear that we're not close enough to go after a key free agent. Also, acting now to sign a Type A free agent does not cost us a first round draft choice as compensation.

Keep in mind that, while, a slower progression may help our kids, it has the exact opposite effect on Brian Roberts who is currently 32. Will he be as productive at 34-35?

I think the Orioles need to be bold, and by bold I do not mean reckless. I'm surprised that many of the same people who believe Andy MacPhail to be a shrewd baseball guy also believe he would be that stupid to trade 4-5 top players and/or prospects for two year rental of Adrian Gonzalez. Without an extension agreed to at the time of trade, the Orioles won't give up that basket of prospects even if it means no trade.
No GM does business that way. Just look at the deal for Cliff Lee. He tells the world that he is intent on testing free agency after next year. Seattle trades two mid-level prospects (according to MLB TV) , not their top farm hands.

When thinking of bold, remember Theo Epstein flying to Arizona to have Thanksgiving dinner with Schilling and his family and then signing him over the holiday. Contrast that to "let's see how the market plays out."

Finally, I live in the Chicago area so I have had the opportunity to see Andy MacPhail for a much monger time period than most. With apologies to Dennis Green, Andy is who we thought he'd be. He's a smart, savvy and experienced, but old school baseball guy. He proceeds very cautiously and is very concerned about making a mistake,
to the point where he will pass on opportunities because he can't pull the trigger. When he arrived in Chicago, there was great anticipation due to his perceived success with the Twins.
However, his laid back, reactive style
didn't play well here in this big market city among fans, the media and most importantly, his bosses at the (Chicago)
Tribune Tower. The biggest knock on him was that he was too slow to act and wouldn't spend the money available for acquiring additional players. When he and the team separated, to say that there were no tears shed by the management would be a gross understatement. On top of all this the brass wasn't too subtle about publicly expressing its joy that he was gone.
This isn't my opinion. Rather it has been well documented in the media.

Andy's M O is very predictable. First, he
lowers everyone's expectations by making statements (like those prior to this year's Winter Meetings) by saying that he doesn't expect much to happen. Then, if he does do something, it surprise the fans. If he doesn't, well then he's previously conditioned the fans to expect that outcome. All this notwithstanding, he's probably the most
knowledgeable guy running the organization since Pat Gillick although Frank Wren was never really given the opportunity. Under his watch, we shall probably get slow but steady improvement. In any of the other five divisions, this strategy would lead to the Orioles being competitive. However, in the AL East, I do not believe he can achieve sustained results.

Finally, a few thoughts on Peter Angelos.
There isn't any way to paint his stewardship of the team in a positive light. Taking nearly a generation to find a new spring training home....a search which included accusations by officials of multiple municipalities that the Orioles had not dealt in good faith...did nothing to stamp the Orioles as a class organization. Firing the team's most popular broadcaster because he was enough of a homer, and then changing flagship stations that made it more difficult to receive the games on radio didn't ingratiate Angelos to the fans either.

On the baseball side, the question remains whether he will spend money to build and sustain a winner. It's ironic in a way. He spent money in the mid 90's. The team won and the fans came out. Then, it appeared he became traumatized by that one bad experience with the Albert Belle contract...a signing he insisted on to steal him away from signing with the Yankees...even though insurance paid off a large portion of Belle's contract due to his degenerative hip condition. He became very cautious.
In this regard, Andy MacPhail is probably the best GM for Angelos, and is one of the reasons the owner has backed away from the overt meddling he exhibited with previous GMs.

No one knows how profitable the Orioles are, but a report 2-3 weeks ago in a blog from San Francisco newspaper Internet site quoted that the team made $26 million in 2008, the most recent year figures were available. However, that may not even tell the whole story. Unless we had access to the books of the club and MASN, which as private companies they're not required to open, we have no idea. I do know that for years here in Chicago, the Cubs regularly stated that the team was only marginally profitable and cried poor boy. That wasn't true. What made it appear that way was that the rights fees paid by WGN and WGN radio were only a fraction of what they should have been. Since both the team and the stations were owned by the Tribune Company, this was merely an accounting ploy which increased profits in the broadcasting division at the expense of the Cubs.

Since the same relationship exists between the team and MASN, we do not know if the $26 million reported is a good number. However, a smart businessman like Angelos could follow the same path as the Tribune Company.
By doing so, he might be entitled to more revenue and luxury tax monies while driving home more profits through MASN.

Hey Harvey, I couldn't stay focused for the whole thing...a little long for this format..
But please...You refer to Andy's."perceived success with Twins"
2 World Series rings is actual success, not percieved. Getting your Cubs that close to the World Series was actual success, not perceived.
And the Angelos bashing....sorry, but it's old and tired and I wouldn't want him to open the books unless he told me I could keep some of it if I didn't fall asleep analyzing them.
How many people do you open your books for? do you even tell epople if they ask you how much money you make. I have found most people don't like to answer that.
And yet Angelos should open them for what? We should force him to give Matt Holiday 115 million. Not me.

Harvey,

I read every word and I beleive it is a pragmatic analysis from an objective third party as to the state of the Orioles and the organization. The blog tends to devolve into buzzwords for those of us who are tired of the sytemic losing, and those with some ties to the organization who sent forth in an attempt marginalize all critisism.

Much of what is said is over the top, so congratulations on thoughtful summary.

As you will see, there are those who will pick and parse at a single statement or word in your post, because they are unable to contradict your overall theme by unshakable fact.

Good job.

Gil,
Your post is probably one of the top reasons why your posts are so pathetic. This whole conspiracy idea that those of us who feel very positive about the O's since Macphail took over, how we are "sent forth in an attempt to marginalize all criticism". LOL
It would be funny you believed that if it were not so entirely ridiculous and absurd. About as ridiculous as me saying you and Wayne are paid by the nationals to come on here and bash the O's management so that we will become Nats fan. That's how completely absurd your ideas are.
Oh well, keep on bashing till the one of only 3 current GM's in baseball to win more than one WORLD SERIES RING (one for each hand) continues to improve this team in so many obvious ways.

Is this O.K. Peter? Oh......we are still live? Oops....Will I still get paid for this one anyway?

sorry accidentally posted with Gil name.

By the way Gil...hint hint.... I think we are all sort of "third party" people here

I think the blog is at a crossroads.

Just how ridiculous is it to continually rake Angleos and AM over the coals every single chance you get? What do any of you hope to achieve? And these ideas of brainwashing the fans into losing (if any are left, according to Gil) are as silly as the warehouse conspiracy theories - people from the organization blogging to stand up for the team. You're kidding ,right? Andy and the family worry about you guys? Please.

And what is this 'taking back the team' stuff all about. You want the team?
If you think the ownership group has a stranglehold on efforts to win, if you think that AM's endgame is complete failure(because every business person is all about that) then hey...Instead of bashing the man, you and your buddies put your collective brainpower to work and get some folks to cough up about 700m, and you can have a run at it. Then you can put Jason's phantom GM in place, and he can figure out how to work the stapler and organize his email. Oh yea, don't forget the guys buying the team might want to make a profit, so if they run it like a business and not as a civic charity, don't be so surprised. Then you can complain amongst yourselves, or better yet, read all of the complaints about the new ownership group. You might even field a request or two to have them open their books, or maybe do some defensive blog posting.

Hi Bill,

There is only one thing that matters and that is winning...or am I wrong there? stupid me, I thought that was why professional sports franchises were organized. Bill, The Titanic was headed in the right direction back in 1912. How's that working?

As I have said many times on the blog, I don't claim to be right, but one thing I am right about is the unshakable fact that the Orioles have lost 12 years in a row. Count them..1998, 1999, 2000, 2001{whew my fingers are getting tired} 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010???, doesn't look too rosy either Bill. But there is always 2011, and if not then 2012, or maybe 2013. Bill you are right. Why the hell am I being so impatient?. Sooner or later they are actaully going to win Arent they? Maybe? Down the road?

Your reflexively defensive posts remind me of a story from years back...

Harry Truman was asked why he was always giving the press"hell'.

Harry responded" I don't give them hell, I tell them the truth and they think it's hell".

...and the truth is, 12 years and counting Bill, 12 years and counting. spin it any way you want to, but it is the truth.

But we are headed in the right direction, aren't we? Bill, I feel a lot better tonight after your input. What am I worried about? Macphail is at the helm and Peter is on his cell as we speak setting up depostions for another class action suit.

And all is well in Birdland

Jim66,

Now that I took my nap, where the hell are you coming from? Jim, I didn't say there were no fans left, but you are a smart man, I have read your posts and you can read the attendance numbers.

What I have said over and over and over, is that in business, or in sports, or in life,
negative situations sometimes require a dramatic turn around. The Orioles have simply run out of the goodwill to embark on a long term rebuilding project and expect the general fan base to be patient.

Watching Andy Macpail operate is akin to the Chinese water torture.

Fortunately I run my own company, and have have had "losing' seasons". But only one in a row. If I worked for someone else, after the year I had back in 1999, I would have been history, and rightly so.

C'mon Jim, why should we give Peter Angelos a pass? We can't affect one damn thing he does on this blog. This blog is all for fun, I just like to see who comes out of the woodwork when I dare suggest it is time to win now.

Yes Gil, I strongly believe we are headed in the right direction. Andy has been on the job for over two years. When he came here, things were very bleak. Of course Peter Angelos made some bad decisions. The GM's made some bad decisions. The scouts made some bad decisions. The whole organization was ion a bad tailspin. The titanic reference is a good one. They needed a lot more time than they had to move the ship in another direction. I suppose you would have demanded that they "change course immediately", sort of like the "win now" philosophy.
It wasn't possible then, and it's not possible with a major league franchise. So yes, patience is exactly what is needed right now. We have definitely changed course. i believe you will see the fruit of that change next year. I'm hoping for 90 wins and be contending for the playoffs......but then again, I could be getting paid to say that, huh?

.You and the other overly negative posters want to continually wallow in the clubs failures over the last 12 years. Well fine, but don't then come on here and tell those of us who see all the good things happenning that we are on the O's payroll. It's insulting and childish. We actually have very knowledgable people in baseball circles who agree with us. Have you not seen any of the national stories about our farm system and it's improvements? You didn't notice any of the trades that took place over the last two years? You haven't noticed how we are poised to add to the payroll significantly if the right person is available?
Of course the improvements in all aspects of the organization are much better today than two and a half years ago. If you don't see that you are willingly ignorant.
But you all who seem to hate Peter Angelos (because he's rich?) or because he made some really bad decisions just can't see the forest through the trees.
This bashing of Andy is quite silly though. Because he acts judicially and prudently you all seem to rake him over the coals. Because he won't throw boatloads of money at marginal free agents??? That's part of what got us into this mess.
And because he won't "be bold" and go get Gonzales. You all have no clue if San Diego even wants to move him and what they would want in return. Do you really want an Eric Bedard trade in reverse?
Get a grip and yes, be patient. It hasn't been 12 years with AM. It's been two and a half.

Bill,

There you go again, as a great man once said. Anybody who does not agree with your rosy scenario is "negative" and a Macphail or Angelos"basher"

By the way, if you have read my posts like you claim, I never use the word "hate'. It is a powerful word and I have raised 5 children not to use it. I don't "hate "Peter Anglelos. Those are your words. I have said before that he is a local philanthropist who I actually have been involved with via the United Way over the years. I think he is a very good man,and a great lawyer.

He is just a terrible baseball owner that allowed his team to devolve to the point that he finally hired a baseball man to run it to get the heat off himself. I do have doubts as to how much autonomy Mcphail has, but that is for another blog.

The blog is for opinions and mine is just as good as yours but no better.

I own and run a business Bill, and I expect results. Until it happens in the standings all of the blather about the potential of the "plan" is pure speculation with no empiracal basis.

You have a nice Holiday, Bill, and I mean that. I have a right to criticize a product that I have financially subsidized for over 25 years and I will continue to do so until the Orioles achieve a winning record. Since I will be 64 next year, at Macphail's rate of "rebuilding", my guess is I will be 6 feet under at Oaklawn and the Orioles will still be last.

Funny stuff,

Every since I suggested that the positive warehousers are finally getting drowned out by facts, truth and common sense, a 'few' bloggers have attempted to take over the blog with their continued, generic losers creed.

To guys like Gil...... don't fret though. It's not about winning to these people. Literally, the 'L's' don't matter to them.

Just keep moving forward, playing whatever part you can in holding the warehouse accountable for their continued dishonesty and continued losing.....

Thanks Gil,
Sometimes the negative bloggers get lumped together just like the positive ones do. You probably support the O's more than I do and we can all chime in. It really gets me though when you or others start talking about being on the payroll or being a tool. As you know from watching the O's success in past years, no matter how the game has changed, you really still need solid starting pitching and a sound bullpen. That is finally what I think we will get next year. Matuszs and Bergesen are probably the two best looking pitchers we've had come up since who?? Palmer and Mcnally. I mean if folks can't get excited about our young pitching, I don't know what to say. Not to mention Weiters. I mean are you guys kidding? The kid could be a Johnny Bench type. We have never had a catcher that looks like he could turn out. And the young outfielders? Man oh man, what a great time to be a kid and to grow up with this team. I remember rooting for Mcgregor and Flanagan (I'm a little younger than you) and Boddiker etc. As the saying goes and is true the darkest hour is right before dawn. I think we hit that point actually the day they extended Trembley and we lost 30-3. While the won loss isn't there yet, I don't know how you could say that last year was just like all the other years. This ship is ready to sail again.
Well, gotta go to bed to be ready to go the warehouse in the AM. Uh oh did I just say that Dagnabbitt!!!

Lucky, that was the newspaper filing bankruptcy, not the baseball team. The baseball team was in the top 5 in profitabiltiy according to Forbes. ( i know the apologists dont believe in forbes though, lol)

Gil,

Dont even waste your time with (hill)Billy frederick. He said in this blog that he "wouldnt be upset" if andy didnt turn it around. Ive never understood the loser mindset of the apologists. I think it clear now that they just dont care.

SOme ppl's bizarre defense of Angelos could suggest that either they are not re4ally fans or just bizarre ignorance

Ignorant and apathetic--that pretty much sums up the apologists. Seriously, why should a "capitalist" who got a stadium from taxpayers dollars and a sports network from his fellow owners feel the need to be competitive when he knows he has a guaranteed profit when he sells the team, no matter how poorly its run ? That sounds more like communism to me. Theres certainly no incentive to compete. Why bother when there is a 190 million profit waiting no matter how much u lose?

Its funny, the apologists have swithced from arguing that the "Plan" will actually work to Petey's got the "right" to run the team the way he sees fit. Thats a strange position from ppl who claim to be "fans" perhaps they dont know the meaning of the word

No one likes Angelos very much, but wow... Jason just compared the way the team is run to communism. Hopefully now the last three people that considered him insightful and bothered to read his dreck have now been convinced otherwise.

Oh yeah, did you coin the "apologists" thing? Because it's very clever, I just wanted to know who to make fun of. And in the future, you might keep in mind that throwing quotation marks around everything doesn't make you sound more emphatic or snide, but instead exposes you as the grammatically inept buffoon that you are. Merry Christmas!

Ed,
You are the man.....uh actually, you are the "Mcman"
I just heard Steven Wright say that he wished the first word that he spoke was Quote......then right before he died he would say Unquote.....
Jason doesn't like anybody very much but he can throw some "quotes" around. He doesn't like "capitalism" very much either although I don't think he knows what it means.
He started calling me (hill) billy.....you "get it"? It's making fun of me I think. he must have gone to "college" or something because he's really "zinged" me a few times but I have to admit I am an "apologist". Watch.....I'm really sorry if anything I've said is too harsh.... get it Jason? I'm an "apologist" and I can't stop.
Peter Angelos is the best Owner. I'm sorry for that.

Hey Jason,
I'm going to really throw a curve at you now. I believe that Angelos should run the team any way he sees fit AND that the current plan will work. Would that be Communist or maybe Facism? Does that make me a double apologist? Is there therapy or should I just go on some meds? Please send some advice?
hillbilly apologist Frederick

Hi Gil,
Not for giving Angelos a pass. Who and how could anyone argue that the last 10 years or so has been a case study in running a successful sports franchise? I won't. I guess I'm tired of hearing about it. I read, have a brain, have followed the O's. I get it. No mas. Preaching to the choir, as they say. And I am not against making moves that make this team better today without undoing a lot of the good work done to this point. Of course I believe it can be done. If this FO spends the next few years building nothing but a 4A franchise, I'll be right there with you.
Because I agree that there will be ample opportunity in the next couple of years to make themselves into a contending ballclub and do it the right way.

Wayne, you can now stop the self-idolization,which by the way has reached near legendary proportions, even for a blog. I'll venture to guess that since I saw no official announcement that you have become the self-appointed spokesperson and head cheerleader for a certain group of posters?
The minute a fact hits one of your posts it will probably be a first. You're really a funny guy. Look at the picture you have painted yourself into:Angelos stinks, AM stinks, the O's need better players, the O's need to spend tons of the cheap owner's dough...blahblahblah. I mean, the only rebuttal to any of that will be if the O's do win without doing any of it.
But c'mon now, though they might not be moving at the desired pace, you cannot sit there and tell me that the guy running the show doesn't know that better players cost more money and at some point here he needs to bring in a couple. I mean, according to reports, they have and probably will continue to make a run at Gonzalez or others. Like I said in a previous post that you actually liked, I don't think this offseason makes or breaks this team, as two and a half years into rehabbing this mess from top to bottom isn't a hell of a long time. But even AM says this is the year where wins and losses will be a measuring stick. It sounds to me like accountability. So in actuality, you are telling me nothing new. I guess you're mostly annoyed by the owner. And his son too.That's really the only thing I can figure.Great. Good for you. As Gil says, you can't change that.

And I'm not attempting to take over any blog.Where does this stuff come from?

When the team starts winning, does the attitude change? or simply the target?
That shouldn't be that tough to answer.

Ahhhh, spoken like a true lover of the L column.......

Always the L column!

you make absolutely no sense
you've passed from antagonism to irrelevance.

Wow. Did I REALLY just read someone state that out of anyone, they would "Trade Adam Jones for Adrian Gonzalez, as Reimold, PIE(?!), and Markakis should be untouchable...". The theory is that Jones will always be "injury prone". Well, that's possible, but you'd REALLY trade the stud Gold Golve, All-Star CF we've FINALLY managed to grab, and he's got less than 3 yrs tenure?? And keep PIE as an untouchable!? WOW. Thanking the stars you're not the O's GM... Adam Jones, Markakis, Weiters, Matusz, and Tilman should be the only untouchables, and they should ALL be untouchables.... TRADE ADAM JONES, a 23 y/o CF, for a guy 10 years his senior that plays 1B (A position you could probably find a guy in the crowd to adequately fill most nights)....!?

Jim66 and Bill,

What is it that sets people off when all I say is that it's time to try to win in 2010, that the players that can help the Orioles stop the losing are out there and Angelos has the money? I don't get it. It's not your money, it's not my money, it's his money.

I have tried to reverse the arguments in my own mind but I just don't understand why any casual fan would tolerate what has already happened, let alone the fact that Macphail seems to be teeing up losing season number 13 in 2010. And I stand by a statement I made earlier in the blog that the casual fan couldn't name any of the prospects, they just want to see a winner.

Kids in the area who were in the first grade the last time the Orioles had a winning season are now entering College. Do you think that we are nurturing a new generation of fans with 90 losses and last place every year?

Of course I like the potential of some of the young players. Why not introduce big time talent like Holliday and/or Gonzalez to show them that it is possible to play meaningful games after the All Star break for the first time since Bill Clinton won his second term?

What if this time next year the Orioles have lost another 90 games, and several of the young pitchers and players bombed out and/ or went on the DL? That scenario is just as likely as the alternative.

What then? Wait for 2011?
There is absolutely no reason that I can see to wait any longer to pull the trigger on some big deals and give the team a good chance to stop the losing now.

Also, don't be so sure that the fans will come streaming back in numbers similar to 1997 if the Orioles do ever figure out a way to win. I think the shine is off that penny due to the last 12 years.

Yes Bill, it's his team and it's his money. What a shame for the fans of Baltimore that we have the worst owner in Major League Baseball according to Sports iIllustrated. Of course, what do they know, right Bill? I guess the SI writers are just a bunch of hacks out to get PA.

I can understand the A. Jones frustration. I don't think he's ever had more than 475 abs. 24 yo and has knee, ankle, hamstring, and even ailing back issues. Durability may be an issue with this guy. I would rather have a A Gonz @ 1st. That guy has amazing #'s playing half the time in crappy hitting park. Avg. 160 games a year in S.D. I don't consider Pie untouchable (can't hit lefties) I think Reimold is good but talk about another guy who is hurt alot. Always hurt in the minors. There are still some big ? marks with our youth. I hope we can start getting some guys who you can rely on. (600 abs, 150 plus gms)

Bealzy,

Uh Oh, that post will bring Bill and the "perpetual rebuilding" crowd out of the woodwork, because you just made sense, and created a disturbance in the force for the "In Andy we Trust" Blog Posse.

Gil -

You're absolutely right.

While I don't think Lackey should have been an O's target (too much of an injury history for a 5+ year deal and why not see what the kids can do with full seasons before next years crop of FA pitchers hit the market?) I do think, as I said in my previous post that it's time to go after Holliday (or maybe even Bay to DH) and Gonzalez.

The fact is that Holliday and Bay aren't going to get nearly what they were expecting. Peter Gammons recently wrote that it was foolish for Scott Boras to pass up on Boston's 5 year, $82.5M deal because he was pretty sure that was the best offer to date. So if the Red Sox would have to pay Holliday only $16.5M per for five years, it seems likely that the guy would take an extra $3-4M per and another year of commitment from a losing ballclub, especially since he's a Boras client (and they go where the money is).

So, everyone in Baltimore, storm the warehouse for me. Start a silent protest to get Peter the (Not So) Great to spend. Stand on Eutaw Street with duct tape over your mouths and signs that say "Happy Holliday to the Orioles - Six years, $115M".

Everyone who has read my posts should know that I agree with "The Plan", but from what I recall, "The Plan" was to grow pitching and buy hitting. Well, there's a pretty damn good hitter on the market. Let's buy him.

Not Brooks,

You know for the first few years I was a supporter of the "The Plan". But I see an opportunity for flexibility on Andy Macphail's part. Who knows what the Free Agent and Non Tender Landscape will look like next year? Injuries and trades may make it worse than this year's crop.

If the Orioles acquired Holliday now it could only be a good thing for the organization and the fans.

Sign me up for the "Get Holliday" campaign.

Gil:

With respect, I think you have the meaning of the word tolerate twisted up in your mind. To tolerate something is to endure something that is distasteful and aggrevating.

We optimists are seeing something enjoyable, whether you happen to agree with that assessment or not. A new GM with a plan, some evidence of it in the form of a bevy of good young talent we haven't seen in a long time etc.

It's you pessimists who are doing the tolerating. You're the ones who don't hear sweet music but who hear only discordant notes and keep coming back for more.

bob c.

I am a pragmatist, you may characterize that as pessimism if you wish..

Win in 2010! Spend the Money! Get the players!

How's that for optimism? It's all perspective, Bob.

bob c -

Obviously, I'm with Gil.

I support "The Plan", but it always makes sense to change your strategies as things around you change.

The Orioles have an opportunity to land a franchise type hitter that would kill several birds with one stone. It would give the team the right-handed middle of the order bat it's been lacking for a dozen years. It would give the young hitters a veteran to learn from (who says only pitchers need that?). It would re-energize a fan base that clearly doesn't care anymore. It would show said fan base that Scrooge McAngelos is still willing to spend big money on good players. It would show future free agents that said owner is willing to spend to build a good team. It would increase the team's flexibility to include Felix Pie or Nolan Reimold in a trade for a certain power hitting corner infielder from San Diego How that's for some optimism?

And to the Holliday haters who use his 346 at bats in Oakland as proof that he's no good in the AL and/or the O's shouldn't pay for him, a few questions for you:

1. Do you also use Nolan Reimold's 358 at bats in the majors as a reason that the O's shouldn't get Holliday?

2. Which AL park is the worst hitters park in the league?

3. Which AL team finished in last place in home runs?

4. Which AL team finished in last place in slugging percentage?

Gil:

A pragmatist wants to a/ see the truth, b/ decide whether they like it, c/ decide whether they can change it if they don't, d/ decide whether they can endure it if they can't change it, and if the answer is no, e/ walk away from it if they can.

Since I can't know the truth, I'll give you a. You decided you don't like it so you get b too. You start coming off the rails on c and d though.

You can't change anything. The Plan will play itself out. Things will not be done that you would wish for. You're left to decide whether you can endure it. So far you're showing signs that you can't but don't want to pull the trigger on e.

My original point was that we who are optimistic about AM and The Plan have nothing to tolerate or endure. It's sweet music to our ears. Not so for you, I appreciate.

Jim66, and others,

You don't get what I'm saying simply because I come from an angle that is non tolerant of losing. SInce wins and loses don't matter to you, you simply have a different perspective.

You see, what you have (and this is similar to some fans in other cities) are names of developing players and prospects. That's where you get your enjoyment.

You get excited when scouts and Baseball America say the Orioles are up and comers. But if you look over the years, baseball america and scouts are often wrong.... They're guessing! Guessing people........

Teams that bank everything on developing players and prospects, without a mix of proven quality players mostly Lose. But that's ok, because you don't mind losing.

Well I do mind losing and I'll continue to base post on facts, loses and common sense.

So keep calling me a troll or whatever other names you come up with simply because you've run out of ways to sell your delusional idea's.

Have some pride guys. FInd ways to win, in whatever you do!

"My original point was that we who are optimistic about AM and The Plan have nothing to tolerate or endure. It's sweet music to our ears. Not so for you, I appreciate."

Whoa... You make it sound like a cult.

And it seems like you're saying that those who agree with the Plan don't care about whether or not the team is successful. "The Plan is in place, so I'm happy and free!"

You're not really drinking Kool Aid are you?

not brooks:

Don't get me wrong. If it's a matter of signing a top notch free agent, I'm all in favour. What I do not believe, and would be happy to be proven wrong about, is that such a hitter is going to come to us this year no matter how much money AM waves around.

That leaves us with trading prospects, and that is a path I simply wouldn't follow. Look, most of our young talent doesn't have a full year under their belts. Are we confident enough now in Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman to deal away Arietta, Hernandez and Britton.

Where would we be if we traded the latter three away and two of the first three flamed out. I don't want to even think about it. We'd be like the Rangers were for years with a good hitting lineup and no pitching to back it up.

Most of our young talent in the minors is pitching. We need to hold onto it until we're satisfied who the keepers are and aren't. We need to give our young Os a full season under their belts.

I guess what I'd say is that I don't disagree with you that much, you're just one year ahead of my scedule.

Names........

Areitta, Hernandez, Britton.....all names!

And that's the next tier.

We have no idea if Bergesen was a fluke or if Tillman or Matusz will develop (at all). They could, they may......with some luck, but no one has any idea.

SO, let's continue to build the fortress with MORE names. Even though the odds are that the next tier of names may fall flat (like most do), let's DARE NOT even consider trading ANY of them for a bat or two.

If we do.....we're the Rangers! lol!

The losers lament continues!

bob c,.

Ok Bob, I'm not sure I really understand what you just tried to say, but since you are a very intelligent man, I won't argue and parse word definitions. All that does is drag the discussion off the point of the prime directive, which is winning, and as I see it, winning now.

Whenever I come up with an argument as to why the orioles should and can try to win in 2010, your reflex action is to frame my comments as negative. I'm not against Macphail, I am for winning in 2010. If you are not, that's OK and I won't accuse you of being negative.

not brooks:

Either I'm having a problem explaining myself or you're having a problem understanding. Why would you assume that because I think AM is going about rebuilding the Os in the right way, that it means I don't care whether the Os are successful.

I simply see the Os success in longer terms than you do. I don't start from the assumption that two years is a reasonable time frame for rebuilding a team as sad as the Os were when AM took over.

I think 3-5 years is a reasonable length of time. A winner in 2010 possible but not likely, greater odds of it in 2011, and pretty good odds by 2012. I think we get there by doing what AM is doing. By getting there I mean being successfull and winning.

There's the first 2012! lol!

Gil and Brooksie, I realize you're not asking for the post season in 2010. I get what you're asking for.

SInce winning is NOT possible however, you're going to keep getting the 3-5 year sell. It's what they do, what they thrive on.

Winning doesn't matter to some.....not really! You're getting a good life lesson just by reading these post!

Time to.....

.... turn your attention to a real organization with real leadership... one that treats its fans with respect and one that cares about W's.

No, they may not always get to where we want them to go, but the Ravens mostly play meaningful games and take much pride in the product they put on the field.

Winning matters to the Ravens. Even if the financial landscape was the same in the nfl as it is in baseball, you can bet this organization would fight to remain competitive.

Interesting, but if baseball had a salary cap such as football, the Orioles would be the Detroit Lions of the league. You know it, the media knows it, and most shamefully of all, the orioles know it.

Good luck Ravens!

While I tend to agree with Bob C on a lot of points, there is a serious flaw, I've realized, in that line of thinking. It seems that if Bob were the GM he would want to deal in guarantees. i.e. taking another year to learn more about the highly touted players we have, at the risk of being too conservative, and making what would appear to a more guarenteed attempt to improve the team a year from now.

The problem is that if MLB teams and their transactions have taught us anything in the past, it is that nothing is guarenteed. Were the Yankess guarenteed a world series ring every year while doubling anyone else's spending. Up until last year, no not for 8 years in fact. Did Seattle's wheeling and dealing (sometimes high risk as I think we all remember) over the last 5 years in free agency and trades, guarentee them a trip to the playoffs? How about the Mets?

The fact of the matter is you can't ever really guarentee anything. Any move you make at all has some level of risk involved. Wether it be sending away a player you felt was expendable that developed into an all-star, or getting an all-star who failed to live up to his reputation.

I think McPhail has enough experience to know he will not be guarenteed anything, but his track record does seem to indicate that he likes to get as comfortable/low risk as possible. But he is the Orioles GM, like it or not, and where we as fans must realize that criticizing his decisions is foolish is simple. The Orioles pay a lot of money to a lot of smart people, scouts, talent evaluators, etc. They have to trust these individuals advice (which we as fans have no access to).

For example, if SD is asking for Tillman, Reimold and Josh Bell, it is easy for you as fans to say "do it", "they're expendable", "we need to have excitment and win now", but if the scouts are telling McPhail that Tillman, Reimold and Bell are as close to can't misses as possible, while at the same time expressing concerns that Arietta and Erbe aren't ready to step in and fill the void left, then would you really feel comfortable making that deal?

Or would you feel comfortable giving Holliday 7yrs/115mil if scouts are telling you they don't like his numbers outside of Coors Field, and when he's not hitting behind Albert Pujols?

In short nothing is guarenteed. But Gil, Brooks & even Wayne, do have a point. At some point you will have to make some tough decisions. For a fan base that has been dwindeling year after year, I can certainly see their confusion about why McPhail would want to wait any longer to make it.

We all do have one thing in common though. We all have to sit back and wait to see what happens.

djph:

My ideas are based on what I've seen work. If you read a post I put up at 3:00am on the 24th you'll understand. It deals with how Gillick constructed the Jays. Read it. It's an eye opener.

I won't repeat it here, except to say that what Gillick did was patterned after the Os dynasty from 66 to 83. By following it, he put in place the next AL dynasty that lasted another 10 years.

I have been going back and forth as to whether I'd want the Orioles to pursue A. Gonzalez. I've now concluded that getting him now would be buying high (because his trade value is likely to be less in a year) using assets (Arieta, Erbe) that you may be selling low for they'd be worth more in year.

It is obvious that Orioles need to add to their current inventory of assets, even if it means over-supply in one position, so that they would have assets to trade for areas of need.

To me, the Orioles need to spend the money necessary to get Bedard and Chapman. Bedard for 2 years has the asset value of at a guy like Arrieta. Sign Chapman and you can now trade someone like Erbe or Britton, and at least maintain the same pitching inventory.

So I would then go shopping and see what I could buy with Arrieta, Erbe/Britton, and Snyder. I would try to buy the best corner infield prospects I could get with this trio as bait. My primary focus would be the Pirates. Perhaps they would be willing to trade Alvarez. Perhaps the Rangers would trade Smoak. Anyway, it seems like a prospects for prospect trade might be the best way to get the long term solution to the big bat problem.

Anonymous -

Pedro Alvarez and Justin Smoak are two of the top five prospects in the game. There's absolutely no way the Pirates or Rangers are going to trade them unless they're giving up a package for some established big league talent.

You all have no idea what San Diego would want for Adrian Gonzalea.
AM does know and has proven very astute at making trades since being here.
I trust his judgement. I'm sure we'd trade for him if the price were right.
If San Diego is not even interested in trading him right now, it sure is a lot of wasted time on this blog the past day.

Anonymous,

I would stay away from Bedard, coming off labrum surgery he may never be the same. Troy Patton had the same operation two years ago shortly after Macphail acquired him and reports are that his velocity has not returned. The Orioles don't even mention him anymore in their plans. Patton was a lot younger at the time of the surgery.

The Orioles need to think big and get over the stop gap mentality. Matt Holliday is out there, and they should go after him. They also need another top of the line starter for 2010 in order to win. The Orioles can not afford another throw away year.

The Orioles have drawn half a million fans less in the last three years than they did in the last three years at Memorial Stadium. Attendance is half of what it was shortly after the team moved to Camden Yards and declining.

This was not an expansion team when Macphail got here. To be sure he came here under extraordinary circumstances, with the farm system in ruin, a new National League franchise 25 miles away, and an owner who has lost all credibility with the majority of the local fan base.

Unfortunately, Macphail does not enjoy the time frame in which he would like to perform a liesurely and plodding rebuilding program if the organization wishes to remain a viable major league entity in the area.

I have no doubt that Washington will lose their third major league team within 5 years due to declining support. As Pete has said on the blog, the situation in Baltimore is a catch 22. If the fans don't support the team, the organization won't have the money to spend to make it better. If the team doesn't get better, the fans won't support the team.

I believe it is time for some bold action on the part of Peter Angelos and Andy Macphail. They must make the trades and signings necessary so that the team can win in 2010, Macphail does not have to abandon the rebuilding plan. The Orioles can rebuild and compete at the same time. It is not a zero sum game as some on the blog seem to think.

The Orioles need to try to win in 2010. Planning to lose in order to fight another day may turn out to be a seminal moment in the history of the franchise, and the damage may not be reversable.

Gil:

Sorry if I offended you by suggesting you're negative, but I almost have the feeling that I woke up this morning in a parallel universe.

In the one I come from, the poster named Gil doesn't think much good about what AM has done this offseason, (signing Atkins, Millwood and Gonzalez), and can't see anything but losing unless we sign a big bat, (which I don't think will happen), or trade away prospects for one. (something I'd almost feel safe in guaranteeing isn't going to happen.)

Where I come from that's being negative about our chances for 2010. Whether it is a position mindlessly arrived at, or as the product of sound and thoughtful analysis, it's still negative. Sorry for saying so.

I love it when......

People use the Yanks as an example of how you can't buy a series every year, using the 8 years previous to this one as an example. What they don't tell you is how they're always playing meaningful ball (always), series or not, which is all a fan can ask for.

I love it when..... People use the 60's, 70's, 80's or even the 90's as examples of anything pertaining to baseball, without understanding how much the game has changed in the last decade.

I love it when.... People say we can't compete with the big bad east when all most fans are asking for is to beat smaller markets like Oakland and Detroit.

I love it when....1057 TheFan hypes the Orioles knowing they have to create interest following the ratings disaster of 2009. And I mean disaster!

I love it when..... Positive bloggers suggest realist like me think baltimore can compete financially with markets like NY, when all I've ever wanted was for the O's to spend according to their market size...instead of spending at # 26 of 30.

I love it when..... AM blatantly lies about how he'll spend approaching the 2010 season - without anyone in the media calling him out.

I love it when..... I'm called names when saying there are warehouse employee's who are given instructions to do whatever they can to spin the O's in a positive direction, whether on blogs, talk shows...you name it.

I love it when..... I get attacked when stating the Angelos family no longer has interest in 1) spending competitively, or 2) fielding a winner - even when the facts are severely on my side.

I love it when...... Oh nevermind.... I could go on all day!

Just turn it around baltimore. Demand that this club wIns more games than it loses. Stop talking about 2011 and 2012 as if all the prospects will turn into gold.

History 'proves' they won't!

bob c.,

Are you actually Professor Irwin Corey?

Gil:

Sorry, but I don't get the allusion. Please explain.

Sorry bob c.,

It was a joke not meant to offend you but to laugh with you. Professor Irwin Corey was a very cerebral comedian who used to perform on the Ed Sullivan and other variety shows back in the 50's and 60's.

He used to come out dressed in Albert Einstein black professorial coattails, large black tie and immedately digress into the most amusing and highly educated doubletalk that would have the audience roaring, even though no one had any idea what he really was saying.

You could probably google him and see one of his old acts.

Anyway, it was just for fun on my part becuase I had absolutely no cogent response for your last post.

Don't get mad at me.

bob c.,

I just went on youtube and not only is Professor Irwin Corey still alive but he is still performing.

Gil:

No offence taken. I have no idea about Corey, but I can do a pretty good imitation of some of Robin Williams stuff. Pure genius. If you ever saw his skit about having a colonoscopy, you'll know what I mean.

If you were implying that I come across as a know it all, then that's a little cutty, but I'm a big boy and can take it.

As I said to you before, I'm a great believer in how Gillick built the Jays. I think it is a model to follow. He didn't go after big names, either by free agency or by trades. Everything he did was geared to gaining draft choices and prospects, not giving them up.

He built a great team by staying well away from what a lot of people on this blog are recommending. I think he'd say to AM that if there is a time to break with that process, that it isn't now while we're in the early stages of rebuilding.

I remember how Gillick built the Jays. I just think that the situations and times they are a changin'. I would like to go back to my youth, when in 1954 at 8 years old my dad took me to the parade in Baltimore that introduced the the then St. Louis Browns as the new Baltimore Orioles.

I followed the new team like any kid back then, reading the Sporting News about the farm team prospects all the way up to the Orioles winning the World Series in 1966. That was the high point for me, athough the"Oriole Way" continued for many years thereafter. Pitching and defense.

But Bob, sadly, those days are gone, along with the reserve clause. The paridigm has changed. Players developed in the farm system are gone with the wind as soon as they are free to go to the highest bidder. There is no player loyalty. Brooks Robinson says that the one thing he is the most proud of is that he spent his whole 24 year major league career with one team.

There really is no tomorrow in Major League Baseball, only today, and the Orioles need to get what they can and do what they can now if they want to win.

Gil:

I'm not advocating a return to the days before free agency. Gillick built the Jays during the FA era. While everyone else dove in, he said no thanks and went his own way. He beat them all including the Yankees who thought their cheque book was enough.

bob c.,

I hear you, but that was then and this is now. The steroid era intervened driving up the cost of players as the cheating went on unabated under Bud Selig.

Bob, today, as a general rule, the teams that spend the most money are the most likely to compete. There are always aberrations like the Mets this year,but you can almost rank the standings of the 32 teams by payroll. The agents and players are much more sophisticated. Today, money talks and bull**t walks. I hate it, but as Walter Cronkite used to say"And that's the way it is,,December 26, 2009.

I did in fact read your eye opening post Bob C, sometime shortly after you posted it 3 days ago. I tend to agree with Gil though in that I don't think anyone can deny that times have changed considerably from the 80's. I can remember when Ripken resigned in the mid-late 80's and everyone was making a big deal about him being the second or third highest paid player in baseball. If I recall correctly, at the time Jose Canseco was the highest paid player at around 5mil per year.

But like I said, I agree with you almost across the board in your philosiphy and I don't agree with spending just for spendings sake. However, I would propose that if this blog or others I've read is indicative of the remaining fan base, it might be time for a well calculated signing of good faith from the front office.

In my opion Jason Bay at 5yrs/65mil along with an Alber Belle type insurance policy, might make the most sense. Surely it can be afforded and the I'm fine with the idea of moving either Bay or Reimold to first base. I don't think that would disrupt the youth movement in anyway or hamstring the franchise moving forward. Plus as I mentioned, you get the added benefit of showing the fans that you're committed to sucess, however long it's going to take.

Of course if anyone likes the idea of a "good faith" signing, I'd be interested in hearing any other suggestions.

I think that Chapman represents a good "good faith" signing in that it "builds inventory", and probably gives the Orioles the flexibility this year or next to trade pitching for the bat.

I'm not against signing Bay or Holliday, but I think that both may be a bit overpriced due to market scarcity.

This is when the failure to sign Tex last year really hurts. If he was an Oriole now, they would be well positioned for the future. Perhaps they would not be ready to contend in 2010, but the pieces would all be in place for a good run in 2011 and beyond.

Ok, repeatedly being branded a patient L by the blogs resident Tony Robbins(Win in your life!!) has convinced me that the O's need to grab the brass ring now!!!! I mean NOW!!!
Sign Holliday- 24 mm/8 yrs should do it
Sign Bay- 5 yrs/90 mm ties him up
Trade Reimold and 5 of the top NAMES to SD for Gonzalez(as you don't need them,and you'll need room on the 40 man roster).
Did I leave anyone out?
Can anyone argue with this proposal?
Try.I dare you.

Wait, not done. Not forward thinking you say??!!!. I beg to differ...
Next yr, sign FA Cliff Lee(whatever it takes), freeing us up to trade Matusz to the Nats for Zimmerman, then whoever we need to pry Hanley R from the cash-strapped Marlins.
I know that's only thinking one yr ahead, but the best I could do without having Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus in front of me. I had Gammons on retainer for moments just like this, but he's at church. And Steve Phillips is busy.

Jim66,

I can't stop laughing. I thought you were serious until I continued to read. That got my moring started.

My idea of a good faith signing is twofold:

Go after Matt Holliday no matter what it takes and sign him.

Then trade whichever prospects not yet on the major League roster{except for Felix Pie, he is expendable} for a top of the line major League starting pitcher.

No one would be blocked since the Orioles need arms in the bullpen for middle relief.

I don't think that those moves could be characterized as giving up on the rebuilding plan

Correction: Holliday signing was for 8 yrs, 24m per yr

Gil,

Getting a big bat for the middle of the order has to be a priority for the team.Balls hit by Orioles are going to have to begin leaving the yard at a far greater rate. It's tough to make up a 200 run differential with singles hitters and improved pitching alone. I'd rather give up a draft pick and some cash, though the O's have done a much better job drafting the last few years- Weiters and Matusz poised to make some contributions this year, so in this scheme I can understand the reluctance to give up on what has been for them a source of near major-league ready talent that you can control for a few years at a decent cost. I also understand the flip side of the coin, the whole prospects argument,so hopefully I don't get beat up too bad here. The tolerance level varies amongst the blogging population. Perhaps you've noticed.

Anyway, agreed, and as i stated before, The Plan(as it's been dubbed) and improving the team thru trades and signings are not mutually exclusive.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Can't trade draft picks in baseball, and can't trade drafted players for a determinate period.

sorry, meant 'can be mutually exclusive'

Pete, guess I should have used the correct terminology. I meant that signing a Type-A free agent would force the O's to forfeit a pick in the draft. In that way they would give up a draft pick...I believe that would be the case in signing Holliday or Bay?

Jim66,

There are those on the blog who want to follow the plan with no deviations until when and if a winning team is produced through sheer rebuilding and occasional stopgap signings as Macphail has just done.

There are those{who your blog in jest best characterized}who are ready to trade anything that is not nailed down in order to compete for the short term.

I find myself in the middle. I would like to see the team in a postion to compete next year, and it gets tougher every day to keep up with the Yankees and Red Sox as they wheel and deal. The Yankees starting pitching is sick with the additon of Vasquez.

I think the Orioles could play .500 ball with the addition of the big bat and another proven major league starting pitcher. They are not going to overtake the Yankees or Red Sox next yesr and we know that. But we could be a fly in the ointment and hang around .500 all year.

I don't think it will happen though, and that's why I get frustrated with Macphail. The roster as currently composed probably assures the Orioles a last place finish again, and the attendance falls at least 100,000 a year while the losing continues. I would not be surprised to see attendance decline to 1,500,000 if the Orioles lose another 90 games next year and are out of it at the All Star break

So the pure rebuilding cultists don't care about the present or about attendance. They think the fans will stream back in greater numbers than ever once the Orioles start winning, no matter how far in the future that date might be.

The trade my mother if necessary just to win one year crowd is fed up with 12 years of losing and one promise after another from Pete Angelos and they don't believe a word that comes out of the warehouse

That's why you see the polarization on the blog.

I just want to see the team step on the field with a real chance to win each night, and that means 5 competitive starting pitchers and more run production.

But as I said, I'm afraid that the pure rebuilding cultists will get their wish from Macphail.

It's really quite sImple,

To most fans, winning matters! They don't always ask for post season appearances, just more wins than losses.... In other words, a competitive baseball 'team'.

To others however, winning doesn't matter!

You see both types in business every day. Those who encourage and demand winning are by and large, very successful. Those who are conservative, passive and accepting of losing are by and large, fillers.

Fillers usually are less stressed, thus live longer. They do have that going for them!

SINCE THE BRAVES SIGNED GLAUS TO PLAY 1ST BASE AND THEY HAVE A PROSPECT COMING UP TO FILL NEXT YEAR. ADAM LAROCHE IS EXPENDABLE. COULD WE TRADE FOR HIM AND HAVE A 25HR HITTER PLAYING HIS TRUE POS. AND GET RID OF LUKE SCOTT FOR SOME PROSPECTS

dewain -

LaRoche is a free agent.

Gil:

Unless someone else wants to assume the title, I'll step up for the "pure rebuilding cultists". Hope I get a tee shirt or something.

For the record, I've said that I'm not against signing a top free agent, only that I don't think it is realistic to expect that one is going to want to sign with a team coming off close to 100 losses in their 12th consecutive losing season. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but I don't think so.

So it seems to me that trading for a big bat is the only available option. And that is where the pure rebuilding cultist in me comes out. Of all the young talent we have, only AJ has so much as a full season under his belt. Weiters, Pie and Reimold combined have less than a thousand at bats. Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman combined have 230 IP between them. Hernandez and Berken have all of 220IP.

With that level of inexperience, we aren't close to knowing how these guys are going to ultimately turn out. It's taking a big risk and shooting in the dark to deal a package of say, Arietta, Hernandez, Reimold and Snyder for a big bat.

In that scenario, what position would we be in if say, Tillam doesn't do well and gets sent down by the end of May, and in June we lose a starter to the DL. We'd be left with Berken and Patton to step and take those roles.

If that scenario played out, a not unrealistic one at all, we'd be far, far better off with Arietta, Hernandez, Patton and Berken than with just the latter two. That's indisputable.

It's a total straw man to say, "So the pure rebuilding cultists don't care about the present or about attendance." We cultists deserve a little more respect than that Gil. I'd love to win in the short term, but not at the risk of damaging the medium term. I'd love to win in 2010, I just don't want to set us back in 2011, 2012, 2013.......

We've lost so much that I think we deserve a nice long run of winning. Not just 2010, but off into the foreseeable future. I don't think you get there by dealing away prospects, certainly not when you do it so early in the game that you don't have a clear idea of what you're trading.

If that makes me a cultist, I'll wear my tee shirt with pride.

bob c.,

Sorry, cult was not a good term and i apologize. Your post, however, did validate the fact that you don't expect to win in 2010 and don't want to take chances trading prospects to give the team a chance to win next year.

I respect your position but I could not disagree more and I hope Macphail is not hinking like you or he is also planning to lose ,it's another 90 losses and last place.

Gil:

No need to apologize. Tweaking my nose isn't out of line. I was just having fun with it. Disagree as we do, you've always been respectful and I appreciate it.

I think history has shown that one of the surest recipes for a losing season is to go into it thin in pitching. Injuries, a kid not working out, those kinds of things happen. Always have. Teams that don't have depth almost always pay a stiff price.

There isn't a hitter in baseball who can make up for holes in your starting staff that you can't fill. A vote for trading a bunch of our young prospects is a vote to increase the risk of that happening.

So, no. I don't think that it's fair to say because I don't think trading our good young arms is a good idea, that I therefore am giving up on a chance to win next year. That's a straw man.

Trading away pitching depth even on a team with an established staff is something you want to give a lot of thought before you do it. Doing it on a team that is three fifths rookies could be downright suicidal.

Getting a big bat by trading prospects isn't all blue skies Gil. You could end up with the kind of season you claim you won't be able to endure if our starters don't all work out and you've dealt your better arms down below.

I want to win as much as you. I just don't think we get there without pitching first. We don't yet know what we have. We shouldn't trade any of it until we have a much clearer picture. I think that increases our odds of winning, not decreases it.

since he is a free agent. (laroche) we should sign him. he hits 25 hr a year and is a .998 fielding%. this is what the team needs right now. i would love to have bay or halliday, but we need another year under or belts. sign bedard and trade for the best SS prospect we can. wait for next years free agency and go all in then with our prospects still here. enless we dicide to get rid of a couple for a big bat with a reasonable salary.(cabrara)

bob c.,

As I said I respect your opinion, my friend.

Gil:

You're not so strangely silent on the main point; pitching depth. Are you willing to trade Arietta and Hernandez who are likely the Os 6th and 7th starters.

Food for thought. TBay used 6 starters last year, the lowest number I found. The Yankees and Bosox both about 8 or 9, the Jays a dozen. Seattle, Chicago and Oakland, the three lowest ERAs in the league each used 10 or more.

I hate to break it to you people but Holliday, Bay, A Gon...these guys aren't the solution. The solution are the kids. How Jones, Markakis, Reimold, Pie, Weiters, Matusz and Tillman progress is going to be the biggest factor in which way this team goes. Like it or not they are are the core of this team. If these guys don't pan out its not going to matter if you add any of those players I mentioned. Everyone wants instant gratification, but how often does that happen. MacPhail took over the worst run team in baseball and he's finally starting to turn it around. We went from one of the worst minor league systems to one of the top 10 in just two years...thats an insane move up. And remember how the Yankees started their current dynasty...remember way back when they became annual contenders again it started with home grown youngsters like Jeter, Petite, Williams, Posada, Rivera, Soriano, etc....once they built that base thats when they started spending all the money to keep it going...but it started from within first. This isn't kool-aid drinking folks...just reality. This isn't the year to spend big. We still have question marks about which youngsters are for real but this is the year to answer those questions. Its also the year we find out if Snyder and Bell will be future pieces of this team or bust. But at the same time, if they progress like many in baseball think they will, the Weiters, Reimolds, Jones, Pies will turn into these impact players you all are clamouring for. I'm amazed that you so many of you can't see that we may already have the answers here. Reimold and Weiters could very well be those two 30 homerun bats you're looking for. Jones could be too if he stays healthy. Matusz could be that "ace" that everyone is looing for, or maybe it will be Tillman. Somebody mentioned that the front office is trying to brainwash into thinking this is the right plan as an excuse not to spend, but I think 12 years of losing has brainwashed many of us on here into believing that no Oriole prospect is capable of turning into a star because no one seems to think Jones, Reimold or Weiters is going to be one or you all wouldn't be calling for MacPhail's head for not signing a Bay or Holliday. But before you bash me for this post and say I'm a kool-aid drinker, part of the conspiracy, or Angelos sympathizer, take a deep breath, then take 5 minutes and just think to yourself, what if Jones, Reimold, and Weiters all hit 30 homers, what if Matusz wins 15 games and has a ERA below 4 this year. Does the plan look so bad now? Especially when the free agent crop is 3 or 4 times as deep next year than it was this year. Would it still have been as wise to overpay for a Holliday or Bay when you can get better talent next year probably easier as the young guys prove they can make this team competitive on their own? I'm asking you all to look at the big picture, not the one right in front of your face right now. Do you want extending winning or instant gratification. For at least half of the losing 12 years we went for instant gratification signing guys like Belle, Tejada, Lopez, Segui, Palmerio and all it did was bring more losing because we didn't have the young talent to support them. Now you're asking for more of it. Remember, deep breath and think about it for 5 minutes. Big picture people, big picture.

Ok, I thought about it for more than 5 minutes D. What did your Uncle Andy get you for Chritsmas?

I'd like to think MacPhail would have gotten better players this offseason if they were available. All in all it was a pretty thin year of free agency, and anyone who wants to argue with me about trading away prospects in our system for stud veterans now can just reference the millions of blogs and articles about how thats a bad idea (so I don't want to even entertain those arguments). I guess we could have gone after Beltre @ 3rd, but his injury woes would make signing him a dicey risk. I believe if there was a number of quality 1st basemen out there MacPhail would have gone for it, but there weren't, really. None that we could get to come to Baltimore right now. Same with pitching, yeah Millwood will probably be average at best, but was John Lackey really going to sign here? Don't think so.

I suppose MacPhail could always do what Flanagan did and sign garbage free agents for more money than they are worth and trick the fans into thinking the problems are solved. Personally, I find his approach of not settling until he gets what he wants both refreshing and effective.

I'd like to think MacPhail would have gotten better players this offseason if they were available. All in all it was a pretty thin year of free agency, and anyone who wants to argue with me about trading away prospects in our system for stud veterans now can just reference the millions of blogs and articles about how thats a bad idea (so I don't want to even entertain those arguments). I guess we could have gone after Beltre @ 3rd, but his injury woes would make signing him a dicey risk. I believe if there was a number of quality 1st basemen out there MacPhail would have gone for it, but there weren't, really. None that we could get to come to Baltimore right now. Same with pitching, yeah Millwood will probably be average at best, but was John Lackey really going to sign here? Don't think so.

I suppose MacPhail could always do what Flanagan did and sign garbage free agents for more money than they are worth and trick the fans into thinking the problems are solved. Personally, I find his approach of not settling until he gets what he wants both refreshing and effective.

I'd like to think MacPhail would have gotten better players this offseason if they were available. All in all it was a pretty thin year of free agency, and anyone who wants to argue with me about trading away prospects in our system for stud veterans now can just reference the millions of blogs and articles about how thats a bad idea (so I don't want to even entertain those arguments). I guess we could have gone after Beltre @ 3rd, but his injury woes would make signing him a dicey risk. I believe if there was a number of quality 1st basemen out there MacPhail would have gone for it, but there weren't, really. None that we could get to come to Baltimore right now. Same with pitching, yeah Millwood will probably be average at best, but was John Lackey really going to sign here? Don't think so.

I suppose MacPhail could always do what Flanagan did and sign garbage free agents for more money than they are worth and trick the fans into thinking the problems are solved. Personally, I find his approach of not settling until he gets what he wants both refreshing and effective.

Gil -

Andy got me an iPhone for Christmas, but he knows that ATT's coverage in northern New Mexico is spotty at best. The jerk...

Can't believe the comments are still rolling in here. We're already more than halfway there, so let's get to 500! Maybe if we do, wayne's Warehouse posters will report that back to Andy and the O's will get us a late Christmas present and sign Holliday!

Agree with you D. Welcome to the cult.

"And remember how the Yankees started their current dynasty...remember way back when they became annual contenders again it started with home grown youngsters like Jeter, Petite, Williams, Posada, Rivera, Soriano, etc"

First off, the Yankee's current squad can't really be called a dynasty, as they've only won one championship. And, as far as the current Yankee team goes, they've got four leftovers from the previous dynasty in Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera. Aside from those four, the rest of the team is a collection of free agents or guys that were traded for that only the Yankees could afford.

Going back to the Yanks dynasty of the late 90's and early 00's...

They traded young players and prospects for Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Chuck Knoblauch, Scott Brosius and Roger Clemens and signed Wade Boggs, Jimmy Key, David Cone and David Wells to complement their young players.

In other words, those Yankees did exactly what the O's should be starting to do right now.

Sure, there isn't a lot on the market, but there is a right handed power bat that would probably sign with any team that offered him the six year, ~$100M contract he's looking for. And signing that guy would probably make it a lot easier to sign one of the power hitting 1B/DH types and one of the aces from next year's market.

Not Brooks,

It figures... he is so tight with Uncle Peter's money that you're lucky you didn't get two Dixie cups connected by a long,long string.

By the way, Hello and almost happy New Year to the perennnial losing through perpetual rebuilding cult. I hope that everything is well and that you are getting ready for the new year...of losing...again..while hoping that one day all of the pain might turn into gain.

I am waiting for Macphail to further lower expectations by announcing next week that although he expects the team to finish last again in 2010, definite progress is being made and by 2011 we should be able to compete for fourth place.

And even that little bit of anticipated progress would give the the Perennial losing through perpetual rebuilding cult warm fuzzies.

By the way, Not Brooks, you were formally voted out of the cult yesterday for suggesting that the Orioles sign Matt Holliday. Cult members consider such spoken thoughts heresy.

not brooks:

I don't think the Yankees are a good example for either side in this debate.

Their winning run in the 90s started in 1993 after 4 straight losing seasons. If there is a comparison to be made to the Os it would be took look at how the Yanks turned it around from 74 wins in 89 to 88 wins by 93. That's a little more work than I care to do.

Suffice it to say that the 93 winner was largely built by trades and signings. They had just Williams and Mattingly among their 9 starting players, along with role players Leyritz and Velarde. On the mound, only Kaminicki, Wickman and Hitchcock were homegrown. Pettite and Rivera didn't come along until 95, Derek Jeter in 96 and Posada in 97.

So the Yanks 90s run didn't start because they went out and signed guys to add to their own homegrown talent, but rather added great young talent to what they had signed or traded for already.

Of the names you list, O'Neill, Boggs and Key were added in 93 to help build a winner and before the influx of the homegrown talent.

Cone and Martinez were added in 96 when they'd been a winning team for 3 years, Wells in 97 when they were 4 year winners with a WS in their back pockets, Knoblach, Brosius and Clemens joined in 98 and 99.

The Os in the middle of a 12 year losing streak aren't close to being comparable to the winning team that that the Yanks were when all the guys you name joined on.

I don't say that to argue with your belief that we should go out and sign a bat, only to point out that the Yanks aren't a good comparative, for either side of this argument for that matter.

So Bob, if a correctly run rebuilding plan, in your eyes, takes 4 years to go from 74 to 88 wins, how many years would you estimate the Orioles should take to go from 64 to 88?

I guess 6 or maybe 7 years right? That sounds great. 2015 (maybe 2016) here we come!

BTW, have you ever heard of the World's Most Patient Man competition? You should consider entering next year!

"Sure, there isn't a lot on the market, but there is a right handed power bat that would probably sign with any team that offered him the six year, ~$100M contract he's looking for. And signing that guy would probably make it a lot easier to sign one of the power hitting 1B/DH types and one of the aces from next year's market."

I have no problem signing big time free agents, just stating that this year was, unfortunately, a little slimmer than we'd all have liked. I also would even agree to signing guys an losing a draft pick over it, but my biggest pet peeve is when people want to trade away prospects for veterans when we haven't even started winning yet. Let's use the guys in our system and go after the free agents, quality free agents, then when we're over the hump see what we need and tinker with trades from there.

When you've just spent 2 years getting rid of ugly, bloated contracts, restocking a farm system, and getting the major league club younger in age the last thing you should be doing is trading away what you've done to get old and bloated again. Holliday would be nice, Beltre could have been nice, but this other nonsense like some of the fans hypothesizing about signing Carlos Delgado is ridiculous. Come on? Really? And trading for Gonzalez? I'd rather have Wieters and Tillman on the roster than Gonzalez thank you very much. No sense in filling 1 void by creating 2 more.

Let's see what some of the younger pitchers can do before we trade them, and let's hold off on the trading until the July 31st deadline - when there are many, MANY more desperate moves made and MacPhail can orchestrate a proper fleecing.

hahahaha the cult of oriole losers!

djph,

The pure rebuilding crowd mindset,and their Guru, Andy Macphail is not necessarily outcome based. Wins and losses are not part of their discussion, and when the subject is raised they quickly try to change it. Trying to pin them down for an end game as to when they think the team will actually comptete for a divisional title is not part of their groupspeak.

Rather, they focus on the process which tantalizes them as they jabber about prospects and dig up vague facts about other rebuilding plans in other times that they feel justifies their position.

Fortunately they appear to be a small minority of fans. The vast majority expect the team to take steps this offseason through trades and at least one big free agent signing so that the team will be in in a position to have a winning record in 2010. The casual fan does not follow the blogs, and they will be deeply disappointed in the organization if it fails to put a winning product on the field next year That disappointment will likely show up in another decline in attendance of at least 100,000 in 2010. This disastrous decline in attendance is purely Economics and Marketing 101.

It will be very difficult to sell the fans the fact that things are getting better if the Orioles lose 90 games again in 2010 and are 20 games out of first at the All Start Break.

djph:

It took the Yankees 4 years to rebuild to a winner in 93. I don't think that makes it some kind of magic number for the Os or anybody else though.

Each team is different. Some need more work to rebuild and some less. I guess the question is, are the Os, or were they in 07 when AM took over, a team needing a lot of rebuilding or just a little.

On that score there is no dispute. The Os were sad sacks at the ML level and equally pathetic in the minors. Add that up and it would tell any dispassionate betting man that the Os were not likely to be a quickie fix, but more likely to come in at the long end of whatever we think the reasonable range of time is that it should take to turn a loser into a winner.

So what do you think is a reasonable time period for the Os. Do you not think that 3 years is at least on the optimistic end of whatever that range is.

My belief is 3 to 5 years. I think that while optimistic, we have a chance to do it in year 3 if our pitching works out. Personally, I'm hopeful. I don't see why Millwood and Guthrie can't put up 200IP and ERAs around 4-4.5 range. If they do and 2 of our 3 young kids work out, then I think a winning or at least close to winning season is possible.

If that happens our pitching won't be the worst in the league like it has been in recent years. It will be somewhere in the middle of the pack with the expectation that our win total would be as well. I see it getting better from there, and if we don't have a winner in 2010, I'm pretty confident in both 2011 and 2012.

As far as being a model of patience, my family and friends would get a good laugh out of that suggestion. I'm a terror if there is something that can be changed but isn't. I could spit nails when I see that.

On the other hand, I have managed to figure out over the passing years that there is no point sweating about things you can't change. We can't change anything to do with the Os, regardless of how much fun it is to talk about it.

Gil:

You have a tendency to build straw men. Why is that. I don't know anyone on here, me included, who has argued that we should only develop our own players, and not sign free agents or make trades. At least I assume that's what you mean when you talk about the "pure rebuilding mindset".

Where are you getting that from and can you name whoever said anything even approximating that. I want to go back and read their posts. I know I've clearly said to you a few times that I'd be happy to sign a big bat free agent, only that I doubted any such big bat would come to us off close to 100 losses in our 12th consecutive year of losing.

"We shouldn't trade any of [our young talent] until we have a much clearer picture. I think that increases our odds of winning, not decreases it."

Posted by: bob c | December 27, 2009 4:16 PM

bob c.,

This blog and other past threads are filled with Posters like Lucky Horshoe, Bill frederick and others who don't want to trade prospects OR spend Peter Angelos money on big name free agents. That's my definition of a pure rebuilder. In the past you have on many occasions expressed reticince about spending big money on free agents and trading psospects because that's how we got where we are. C'mon Bob, stop feigning innocence. It's only been recently that you have bought into the concept of maybe signing a big bat, and even in your last post you said you doubted one would come here.

The point of my post is that there is a small minority of fans who have bought hook,line and sinker into Andy Macpahil's vague timelines of both rebuilding and when he might decide to improve the team through a big free agent signing.

Now, be honest with me, if the orioles could pick up a big bat or a real quality MLB starter would you be willing to trade Chris Tillman, Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder to do it?

Anonymous:

That's a little disingenuous use of a quote from a post where I was referring to our pitchers at AAA. Given that three fifths of our starting rotation is young and unproven, I didn't think it wise to deal the guys we're going to need to back them up. It was a statement to a specific case. If we had a proven 5 man staff, then if the deal were right I might take my chances. I think long and hard before I trade pitching. I don't want to be thin. Bad general policy.

Gil:

You're way off base on my thoughts about free agents. I'd have unloaded the vault to get Tex. I have no problem with spending big money. The only thing I don't want to see is budget busting long term deals to middle age and older guys who break down and end up on the DL half the time.

What does "and even in your last post you said you doubted one would come here" have to do with whether I would want to sign a big name free agent. You are equating my doubts with my desires.

Honestly Gil, I'd really, really love it if a big bat were to sign with us. I just doubt it.

As far as your question about whether I'd trade Tillman, Bell and Snyder for a big name, I really think you should answer my question first about trading Arietta and Hernadez.

So, while I'm waiting I might as well take a shot at it. Yes, I would think about that package for a Halliday or a Beckett in their prime. I would be getting there very guy I was hoping Tillman would turn into in my wildest dreams. Why not.

For a position player I would have more difficulty. I think we're thin in pitching now. I think the thinner you get the more you're going to lose. Considering that and how good some people think Tillman might become, I probably wouldn't although Albert Pujols we be awfully tempting.

bob c.,

I'm sorry but I am not really focused tonight. Please repeat your question about Arietta and Hernandez. for me.

I must aplogize somewhat because I have spent some time going back through the blogs and I see that you have never completely ruled out the possibility of a deal if it made sense, although your overriding theme seems to be give the plan some more time before we pull the trigger on anything major, and not to trade prospects, especially pitchers. Do you agree with that assessment because I just got done scanning 3 months of posts?

I think that is a defendable position, much more so than the pure rebuilders who wouldn't trade anybody or sign any big name free agents. I think time is up and the Orioles need to try to do something major for 2010 to rebuild fan interest... although I think that Macphail has lowered expectations steeper than consumer confidence survey.

bob -

That last Anonymous was me.

Sorry for the use of that quote. I must admit I just searched "trades" and only read the line that I posted.

Gil:

My question was would you trade Arietta, Hernandez and others in a package for a bat like A Gonzalez. My position was that I wouldn't since they shape up as the Os most likely 6th and 7th starters this year and would leave us dangerously thin.

Thank you for re-reading some of my posts although you could have saved yourself the trouble and just taken me at my word. As far as your assessment of my position, it's pretty close. As AM says, grow arms and buy bats with the understanding that it is a general philosophy that can have exceptions. Roy Halliday would be an exception.

I really think that what separates you and I is 12 months. You think that a big name free agent will want to join us now. I don't believe one will until we put together a decent season which hopefully 2010 will be.

I would be willing to think about trading a couple of arms for a bat, with our pitching a little clearer than it presently is and Britton and Erbe a little closer to being major league ready. I'd still be very reluctant, but the right deal could convince me.

not brooks:

Thanks for that. Appreciate it.

bob c.,

When you start quoting Andy Macphail you make me nervous, and I guess that is my entire issue with the current situation.

I don't believe in Macphail, I think his hire was a dodge and a hoax to get the heat off Peter Angelos. Angelos could have hired anybody to rebuild the farm system, it was in such bad shape. But he hired a person with a baseball pedigree that was acquired through nepotism and a local history.

It was a brilliant PR move and the only thing Angelos could have done to hold off the wolves short of selling the team. We are nearly three years into the Macphail regime and the Orioles are still last and likely to finish there again in 2010.

The Orioles need results in the standings not puff pieces in the"Sun" today about how much progress the Orioles have made signing International players under Macphail. It nearly made me puke. The entire media in this town, save for the blog owner, is in the tank for Angelos and he must have 8 by 10 glossies on many of them. Pete is the only guy brave enough to even suggest that maybe Macphail could do a little more a little sooner.

Sorry Bob, there is too much blood in the water for me to buy into a long term rebuilding program after all of the years of losing. Angelos has the money to turn it around in 2010 but he is content to let his scam play out. There will be another "plan' in a few years after Macphail becomes commssioner.

What is the alternative you say? Spend the money Angelos is hoarding and start by signing Matt Holliday. Put together a package of "prospects" for a top of the line starting pitcher. The organization needs to start acting like they want to win now.

Gil -

When you talk about a top of the line starting pitcher, who are you thinking of, specifically?

Unfortunately, Halladay, Lee and Vazquez have already moved, so they aren't available anymore.

Josh Johnson's name was on the board a few weeks ago, but, according to reports from the Marlins front office, he's staying put for now. I don't think I'd want to give up a big package for Johnson anyway. Maybe swing a deal for him if he puts up another solid, 200 inning season in 2010.

Matt Cain might be available, but I doubt the Giants would give up a starter for anything short of a proven big bat. The O's don't have one of them.

Just looking for ideas, as the market for top of the line starters seems pretty thin.

Not Brooks,

Yes, as usual the Orioles are a day late and a dollar short for the Lackeys and Hallidays, Cliff Lee,etc. Andy Macphail never had any intention of trying to sign a big time Major League free agent arm.

But I think it is possible to entice pitching rich teams, such as the Yankees, Red Sox, to part with a piece of their insurance for the right package of prospects.
Or teams that are not likely to challenge in 2010. Players sometimes move twice in an offseason. Pitchers that come to mind that the Orioles could pursue are Zach Greinke, Jake Peavy, Matt Garza, Carlos Zambrano, etc.

I guess what I am saying is that in order to get such a pitcher, the organization would have to think outside of Andy Macphails rebuilding box. And that is not likely.

To "D", the problem with signing Miguel Tejada wasn't related to instant gratification, but rather a lack of understanding by the Orioles' brain trust
(at the time) of just how far away we were from being competitive. Tejada should have been the first of a number of pieces the club should have added in addition to bringing young players along. His signing was meant to herald that the team was moving to change its image in order to entice future free agents. Remember that Miggy announced during his initial press conference that he would try to induce others to come play for the Orioles. However, no such signings ensued. He put up some huge numbers after he first arrived. It was only after the team failed top sign other impact players that he soured on the team.

This segues to the point made by not brooks. If the Orioles signed a Matt Holiday, he should be seen as another key piece, not the final piece to getting the team to where it needs to be. However, such a signing with the expected improvement in the standings should make it easier......AND CHEAPER to attract additional key pieces after the 2010 season. Regarding Holiday or Bay caliber players, the team has to overpay to get them. It's no different than a less than
first rate company having to pay a higher rate of interest on its bonds to attract investors due to the perceived greater risk to the investors. To a top free agent, signing with the Orioles now represents a greater risk of not making the post season than signing with NY or Boston.
The good news that such a signing together with the continued development of the young guys will reduce this "premium" to the point where we can compete for future free agents based on performance and results, and not just hope for a better future.

I believe that the best thing the team can do to help its pitching staff for 2010 is to buy a big bat now. If we look back at 2009, our sorry pitching at the beginning of the year (see Adam Eaton) often had us behind early in games. It put a lot of pressure on both our relief pitchers and
young hitters. While I do believe our starting pitching will be improved this coming season, adding an impact bat that results in more runs scored will relieve some of that pressure. [Looking at the ERAs of NY and Boston's starters, they're not all impressive. What both teams did, however, was beat the opposition into submission.] If we can more frequently get to 5th or 6th innings ahead or tied, our starters may be able to stay in games longer which will reduce the strain on the bullpen. For this scenario to play out, one or both of the following has to happen. Either the starters have to significantly reduce the number of pitches they throw or the Orioles have to relax their reliance on pitch counts, or both. The starters can not be at 85 pitches in the sixth inning.

The trade possibilities are endless. I think that when you have a stocked farm system just about any team could be enticed into letting go a proven major league talent. The problem is that they don't come cheap, and the length of their respective remaining contracts are a big issue.

1. Because unless you feel you are ready to compete for a world series, it doesn't make sense to give away top notch prospects for a one or half year rental.

2. You would have to be very much concerned if you could re-sign said stud player to a long term deal, given the conditions of today's free agent market.

Heck, I believe Hanley Ramirez (who in my estamation would improve the entire team more than any other player) could be had in a trade. But you'd have to mortgage your future. And for a team coming off 98 losses that doesn't make sense.

The frustrating thing is that I agree with many posters that we could've put together a better package than what ended up sealing the Halladay/Lee deal. But you have to remember that the Phillies already got Roy to agree to a long term deal and the Mariners are gambling once again that they can overtake the Angels. We all know how well that's worked out for them the last few years.

I'm gonna side with Bob C on the trade issue here. Not that the proven talent couldn't be had now, but that it probably will make a lot more sense if most of our prospects pan out and we're able to stay close to .500 this year.

The refusal to jump into the free agent market is more concerning to me, and I have to agree with Gil in that McPhail (while I don't doubt his overall intentions), is trying to do this rebuilding effort on the cheap.

How can you blame him though? He's already got half of the posters on here (probably the top 1% of the Oriole faithful in terms of interest), convinced that they would rather see how Tillman or Reimold pan out, than see the team sign a proven top of the rotation starter or Holliday/Bay.

I applaud the Mike Gonzalez signing, because I think it does make us a better team, and they did give Millwood $9mil to eat some innings, but they do need to send the right message to the fans by landing one of the remaining big free agents THIS offseason. Matt Holliday (probably overpriced), Jason Bay (better fit in my eyes, move him to first), Laroche (not sexy, would almost rather see Aubrey/Snyder), Thome/Dye/Guererro (too old, depressing to watch the decline from what they were). In the end, I don't think they'll land anyone and maybe get a pass on it because it was such a weak free agent class. I've resigned myself to hoping to see breakout seasons for Jones, Weiters, Reimold, Matusz, Tillman and company. I just hope Dave Trembley can get a clue and not make a mess of things like he has in the past.

This is the last off season of inactivity I can tolerate. And 2010 will be the last season of "growing pains", I can tolerate. None of us know exactly how it will all work out, but either way if ownership and management don't step up and commit to putting a winning product on the field within a year, I'm going to find something better to do with my time than caring about a franchise that will never compete.

Gil:

Forget the Os for a minute. How long should it take a new GM to turn a losing team into a winner. And not just a losing team, but one that was truely awful, one of, if not the worst, franchises in the sport. How long would it take to do that with a basketball team, or hockey, football etc.

I think that if you were to ask most knowledgeable people in whatever sport that question, year 3 would be a seldom heard answer.

If you put your money on it in Vegas, I think you'd get long odds on year three and a handsome payday if you had the courage to bet on it happening that quickly.

Pete, for the love of Jimmyville, please start a new O's topic like a 10 top list of how Bonnie Hunter lasted this long with Jimmy or how Wiggy's Dad has been inked to voice ET in the remake, but this topic is almost as long as The Lord of the Rings Trilogy which I read 20 years ago.

Curious if you guys like the idea of picking up Ryan Garko? Seems like he could put up Carlos Pena like #s if given the ABs. There isn't a 1B out there that screams sign me so he could be a big time steal.

Bob C,

Gil can answer for himself, but baseball is unique from the other three major team sports BECAUSE it has no salary cap. That allows each GM greater latitude in improving his club. All some of us have been trying to say is that the Orioles should utilize EVERY means to improve the club including signing big name free agents.

Since you asked how long would it take, and since you're in Toronto, let's examine a team and a sport you're probably most familiar with...the Chicago Blackhawks of the NHL. They finished the '07 season with something like 68 points, missed the playoffs and attendance was near the bottom of the league. They brought up the top kids like Patrick Kane and Jonathan Towes and finished '08 with 90 points...just missing the playoffs. Overpaid to sign top free agent, Brain Campbell, in July '08. Finished '09 season with 104 points, won two playoff rounds before losing in Conference finals. Led league in attendance. In July' 09, again signed top free agent, Marian Hossa. Through Sunday's games, had the most points in the league and leading NHL in attendance. On a pace to finish with 120+ points for this season ending 2010. Total elapsed time...2 1/3
years. By comparison, let's look at your home town team. Despite having the greatest worth according to Forbes, the Maple Leafs have not signed any top free agents in the past 3 years (they traded for Phil Kessel) and are exactly where they were three years ago...one of the worst teams in the league.

h:

While there are undoubtedly examples to the contrary, I've got to think that in any sport turning a sad sack into a winner in 2 years qualifies as an ambitious agenda.

bob c, Not Brooks,h, djph, Harvey and others..

I think Birdland Todd is right, we have beaten this thread to death and we are basically right back where we started. djph has pretty much summed up my feelings in his final paragraphs. Yes the organization sucked when Macphail got here, yes he has made some good trades and acquired some nice prospects...but..last place looms again in 2010 unless Macphail decides it is time to try to bring in big time talent to accelerate the process, and I seriously doubt that he will do that for another year or two, or if ever. Some of us are OK with that, some of us are not. The only real count that matters is rear ends in the seats at Camden Yards, which get fewer by the year.

As Pete said at the beginning of the thread, we have reached the intersection of can and can't and the traffic lights just went out.

Time for a future thread dated September 30, 2012 titled" The Macphail Years, looking back".

If we stop now, there's no chance of getting to 500 posts, which is when Andy will reward us with Holliday (or an O's pennant, whichever is cheaper).

I give up. I've finally been worn down. Let's get out there and sign someone. Hang out the shingle.

WANTED: Big name hitter

TO JOIN: Team in 12th straight losing season, coming off 98 losses, that plays in the toughest division in baseball.

MISSION: Turn team into a winner.

HELP IN ACHIEVING GOAL:
1/ A starting staff made up of 2 decent major leaguers plus 3 unproven young guys
2/ A bullpen looking okay in the 8th and 9th but question marks after that.
3/ No one yet to play 1st.
4/ Bunch of young talent with little playing time under their belts and no clear picture yet of how thet're going to turn out.

I mean, what's not to like. Sign em up Andy.

to Gil:

Matt Garza? You want Matt Garza? Not only do you want him, you want to give away something that we have for him?

Yes, a erratic young pitcher who throws hard and has potential but is a known headcase and when the game gets to him he is susceptible to walking batters. Didn't we do this once already? If this is where were headed then forget it and just bring back Daniel Cabrera.

This poor idea speaks volumes of your baseball senses.