Ok, so I'm one of those probably getting too excited about CMW. The Yank want him back and I think he wants to go back. However, he only made $5M last yr, and the fact that they non-tendered him means they hope to re-sign him for less than $4M. I would think another team can (and will) make things interesting by offering $5-6M. If nothing else, might there be several teams interested in forcing the Yankees to pay top dollar to re-sign him?

We could do a lot worse than bringing in Garko for 1B/DH platoon with Scott. His power and OBP are not terrible.

how about jeremy accardo as a potential closer..didn't i see his name?

For Koji is being paid and if he's not going to be a starter, then he should be put into the closer's role.

Boomer,

I see your point, but once a player is signed to a deal you need to have him in the best role for the team. Danys Baez made a lot of dough last yr (way too much, and it was the Orioles' mistake), but that was not logic enough to have him as the closer. I believe Koji is a good choice for closer, but it has nothing to do with his contract.

charlie. Excellent idea re" Accardo as our closer. For some reason, this guy fell out of favour with the Jays, despite racking up 30 plus saves before going down with an injury. HE seems to have receovered but I'd kick the tires on him first and then grab him if he's available.
He's a better option than Rodney, who, as someone rightly pointed out, is another Jorge Julio or even half=pack Stanhouse.
I think Koji could possibly close but if not, he might be OK as a middle reliever. Glad to see the release of Bass but why is Albers still around?

Charlie & TerryP,

Accardo was tendered a contract by the Jays. So, you are not going to be able to pick him up as a FA.

JR

Pete, I think it's premature to assume the Yankees are automatically going to get back Wang. His agent, Alan Nero doesn't sound like it's necessarily a give: "I think it's difficult to rationalize a non-tender as further building a bridge with a team, but we'll see." To me, that sounds like he'll be willing to talk to Cashman and Co., but is also going to be open to discussing things with other teams as well.

{Sidebar: Cashman. What a perfect name for a Yankee GM, huh? LOL}

Los Angeles could be an attractive fit for Wang, as he pitched for Dodgers' manager Joe Torre in New York and apparently has a good relationship with him. It would also be much closer to Taiwan than the Bronx, which might also be appealing to Wang and his family.

Still, there's no doubt playing for the champs would have also have a allure, although falling from team ace to number five starter is a significant drop. How big is Wang's ego. If he's near the top of another contender's rotation, would that be enough to tip the scales in that team's favor?

When I say Wang would be a number five in New York, it's because I think it's fairly certain that the Yankees will at some point make a hard push to sign either John Lackey or Roy Halladay regardless the cost (payroll cut? What payroll cut?). And although they may want Wang back at a reduced rate, they surely want another solid front of rotation guy more than a question mark like Wang. After all, there are a number of comparable pitchers available at likely the same amount of money.

It's all going to come down to how much the Steinbrenners are willing shell out. If it's a decent contract that has incentive pushing it up to what would be equivalent his previous salary, that might be enough to bring him back, but this depends more on what Wang wants than what the Yankees want. He's the free agent who may feel underappreciated.

I'd think Nero will make the rounds and see what other teams are willing to pay. It may turn out that someone offers more than New York is willing to give. In any case, the Orioles probably won't be a factor regardless of what transquires; that is unless Andy MacPhail wants to really role the dice and offer big money in the hope of Wang returning to All-Star form.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/sports/baseball/2009/12/13/236363/Wang-becomes.htm

Absolutely. You might need to guarantee Wang at least 5 milion as Jonathan points out, but if you sign him and Bedard to incentive deals with club options Millwood potentially becomes a no. 3 starter. Intriguing.

Branyon will be the 1st baseman.Take it to the bank. Marquis will be the other starter.

I thought all this non-tender arbitration business was over during the winter meetings?

I'd like to see Marquis in Bmore, but what is his asking price? $30/3? He's gotta at least get Randy Wolf $$$.

Adding 2 solid RP's should give them a decent BP this year.

Why not Valverde? I mean, they may have to give up a 2nd round pick, but that's a small price to pay for a shutdown closer, am I right?

It never ends.......

There's actual debate over this junk-heap?

I'm not being negative. Rather, one need only look at 09' stats.

Set the bar higher baltimore. Have some pride!

Pete, I was shocked to see that John Buck was let go by KC. A few years ago, he was being highly touted. Some catchers take longer to develop so here's a young guy that the O's could pick up as a back up to Matt, as well as allow Matt to DH during those humid Baltimore summer nights.

Every time the Tribe played the O's, Garko always did something positive so in my book, he's an interesting player. Will he pan out here? I don't know, but he's familiar with the AL pitchers and he certainly has some big time pop.

Pete, I know Gregg wouldn't be the popular choice, but don't you agree with the philosophy that if a coach had success with a player, he's worth a minimal risk to see if lightning can strike twice? He was very good when Kranny was in FL. I've seen him pitch in person quite a bit when he was with the Marlins and always was impressed with his stuff. Seems like a low risk, potentially high reward signing whether he's closing or a the 7th inning pitcher. Only Koji, JJ and Hendrickson (if they sign him) are locks to pitch out of the pen in 2010 so anything to improve the BP would be great including taking a shot at Capps if the price is right.

Schmuck,

Is that a Jackson Browne reference in the blog title?

What do you think about Jack Cust? I wouldn't want the O's to overpay for him but since he's a 1-dimensional player he should be available on the cheap, Right? The O's desperately need a big bat to save their investment in Markakis who became a very mediocre punch & judy hitter after Huff was traded.

Buck signed with Toronto. He would have been an upgrade of Moeller. I know we need someone at third, but I think Garko would be a good pickup. Still pretty young and pretty solid.

I would take Atkins or Garko on a 1 year deal. If they do well, extend them.

Buy low, sell high!

Same with Capps, all three are coming off bad years.

I think Mike Gonzales is the best of who's left.

Wayne-
What's your plan to make the Orioles competitive?

It never ends.......

There's actual debate over this junk-heap?

I'm not being negative. Rather, one need only look at 09' stats.

Set the bar higher baltimore. Have some pride!

Posted by: wayne | December

Yes, you are being negative (big shock). Look at Valverde's stats and tell me he is "junk". Why don't you actually look at a guy's stats before you put your foot in your mouth? Maybe you wouldn't be the fool of the message boards then?

Guru, I'm with Wayne. This is a ridiculous list of choices. Look back at the last 10 years or more and find me a World Series MVP who was a rookie, or a prospect, or anything OTHER than a 30 + year old established star MLB player. You can't find one because it doesn't happen. Until the Orioles organization is willing to throw major league money, at established major league stars, they can not be a contender. Until they are willing to part with ANY and ALL of these "Prospects" they have, they can not win with regularity. Prospects are not stars, they are prospects. Prospects have never won a playoff game. Prospects do not get a team in the postseason. MOST prospects never cut it in the big leagues. This organization cannot sit around and wait, hoping these young guys will became all stars. Trade them for guys who are, yes, 30+ years old. Trade them for guys with 8,10, 12 years of proven success in the big leagues. Throw major league money at free agents in addition to this. Then and only then will the Orioles be able to compete with the top two teams in their division.

Guru, I'm with Wayne. This is a ridiculous list of choices. Look back at the last 10 years or more and find me a World Series MVP who was a rookie, or a prospect, or anything OTHER than a 30 + year old established star MLB player. You can't find one because it doesn't happen. Until the Orioles organization is willing to throw major league money, at established major league stars, they can not be a contender. Until they are willing to part with ANY and ALL of these "Prospects" they have, they can not win with regularity. Prospects are not stars, they are prospects. Prospects have never won a playoff game. Prospects do not get a team in the postseason. MOST prospects never cut it in the big leagues. This organization cannot sit around and wait, hoping these young guys will became all stars. Trade them for guys who are, yes, 30+ years old. Trade them for guys with 8,10, 12 years of proven success in the big leagues. Throw major league money at free agents in addition to this. Then and only then will the Orioles be able to compete with the top two teams in their division.

Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett, and Troy Glaus all have won the World Series MVP in the last 10 years. Their ages at the time were 24, 23, and 26, respectively.

"Wang had a series of problems last sasonthat stemmed from a foot injury he suffered running the bases in an interleague game."

uhh no im pretty sure it was when he got destroyed by the indians. he gave up, what 10 runs while getting one out? oh what a lovely inning...

Dan--

I would guess PS's blog title is a ricochet from F. Scott Fitzgerald's novel "Tender Is the Night."

About Buck, if he was non-tendered, did the FO move too slowly (as usual) to prevent him from signing with Toronto? Did they move at all? Maybe they think Moeller is just fine at the position. Since Trembley apparently believes that no major league player can play more than two days in a row without taking a rest, the back-up catcher might end up playing fifty games or more. That's a lot of games in which to add another hole in the line-up.
Finding a back-up who can hit, while not quite as crucial as solving the corner infield mess, is pretty important. Any ideas, anyone?

Win Sum Soon was non tendered, too. He would be a fit with Wang!

Everyone!

You must obey the Macfail loser plan!!! Start getting excited about guys that have minor leagues written all over them!!

Trollhunter,

"Prospects have never won a playoff game."

This is a ridiculous notion. Every team that has won the world series has had prospects or young guys on their team. I challenge you to find one world series team that hasn't built through their minor leagues in one way or another.

It's very important to use your minor league resources to build a team that is a few free agents away from contending. That is what AM has done. When the O's tried to build through free agency with trio of Palmeiro, Tejada, and Javy Lopez, it still resulted in a fourth place finish.

This team cannot afford to spend $400 million in one offseason to compete with the Yankees. So the only other way to compete is to fill your farm system with quality players, hope the majority pan out, and then add quality players at the right time. Also, timing is everything, so while it would be nice to add multiple free agent pieces to this team, this is an uncharacteristically bad year for building from outside your organization.

The game of baseball and the poor starving baseball fans of Baltimore should file a restraining order keeping Dave Trembley 100 yards from a bullpen and absolutely no contact. Trembley has the ability to make even great relievers like Rivera, Papelbon, and Hoffman etc into Matt Albers. Trembley needs to focus his time on making lineups and eating McDonald’s Big Macs.

Rich -

You really want to trade Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz for a couple of guys in their 30's?

Now that we've moved on from the steroid era, baseball is a young man's game. You want a team that's going to be good for a very long time? You build it from the ground up, supplementing it with solid veterans. You want an expensive team that might have one good year and then break down and hamper the franchise for years? You trade all of your young talent for guys in their 30's.

Heck, just look at the 2009 stats leaders on MLB.com...

Seven of the Top 10 in batting average were in their 20's.

Eight of the Top 10 in homers were in their 20's.

Eight of the Top 10 in innings pitched were in their 20's.

Eight of the Top 10 in strikeouts were in their 20's.

Six of the seven guys with 200+ innings and ERA under 3.00 were in their 20's.

Need I go on?

It's a young man's game, my friend. No GM ever trades his top young talent for 30somethings and then says, "We're really trying to get older."

Trembley has the ability to make even great relievers like Rivera, Papelbon, and Hoffman etc into Matt Albers.

That's one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard.

Excluding George Sherrill and the pre-closer version of Jim Johnson, who were both damn good, name one solid reliever that Trembley has had to work with.

I'm wating...

if Wang isn't signed by NYY do you really think that his agent is going to allow him to sign with the Os. Com'on! If there is at least one other bidder for his services, you can kiss him goodbye.

I don't know that we must get a closer....JJ, Koji, or even Mickolio could do it. We need a big bat.

not brooks

Trembley wont be given any talent because they want to make it look like these losing years were his fault and not upper management. However if he did have good players especially a good pen he would screw it up its just the reality of the Orioles deep routed dysfunction level.

MacFail’s Loss Plan requires Trembley being Trembley. Trembley has to be manager so we stink and collect picks and make moves to get the team better but cost effectively for the next 10 years.

Seth -

Obviously.

It's a conspiracy! It's a cult! Get out while you can!

PS - This kool aid is good...

Not Brooks,

Thanks for a very interesting perspective. I had not thought of that change until now. With the decline of the chemically engineered "proven major leaguer" for whom certain posters here salivate, it is all the more important to have a surplus of young talent moving onto the roster year to year. Your numbers make that point well.

Guys like Gil, Whiny Wayne, Rich Munchel, The Plan and others fail to see that very real trend. They want "proven major leaguers." That's a phrase I love by the way, it's shorthand for I want to bitch and moan, but I don't want to write down actual names because then the absurdity of what I am suggesting would become apparent. On the other hand, who can argue with acquiring "proven major leaguers"?

I thought Millwood was a proven major leaguer but from the fury released by the Miserable Marys on this blog, I guess not. I suppose they are holding out for Andy to pull off a multi-team trade of Jason Berken for CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Roy Halladay and Alex Rodriguez.

The only problem with Cautiously Optimistic's otherwise sound reasoning is his conclusion that the FA class this year is "uncharacteristically bad." I sense that the GMs in the league (unlike the Bitch Brigade mentioned above) understand that this is a young man's league now and the trend is to lock up young (less proven) talent for their "new" peak years (ala Longoria or, heaven forbid, our own Kakes), so fewer and fewer of the true young studs become available these days. All the more reason drafting, trades like the Bedard trade, international scouting and prospect development are so important. All areas in which the Orioles are finally among the league's best.

It's a new world in MLB and Andy's on the front end of current trends. The complainers above are stuck back in the late 90's, pining for a bunch of roid-riddled geriatrics to win a championship. Those days are gone. It's harder to build a winner now, but subtlety and patience aren't exactly strong suits for guys like Wayne who punch out "losers!" on a keyboard to describe fans with whom they disagree.

Seth and Ron,

Great points. I'm sure you've hit the nail squarely on the head. It's a big conspiracy and we'll just the pawns.

That's a really intelligent perspective. It explains the decade plus of losing so much better than the gross mismanagement of the franchise prior to Andy McPhail's arrival.

The things McPhail's done...signing Markakis long-term, acquiring Tillman and Jones for Bedard and bringing up two of Baseball America's top prospects in Wieters and Matusz...are all just diversionary tactics to keep the silly and stupid among us quiet while Andy and Peter continue their devious plot to lose.

Thanks for straightening it all out.

Safe to say that Jackson Browne drew the line from Fitzgerald, not the other way around. As for which of those two Schmuck drew it from, that's anyone's guess. Looking at his picture on the banner, I have to believe the smart money is on Jackson Browne.

One thought on the current FA market:

Here are two starting pitchers. Which one do you want?

Pitcher A: 6.6 innings per start, 3.79 ERA, 269 K, 43 HR, ~$15M per season

Pitcher B: 6 innings per start, 3.66 ERA, 243 K, 47 HR, ~$2M per season

Hey Troll,

Huh?

Not Brooks,

Probably Pitcher B, but do tell...who are the pitchers in question?

The one question I have is whether we as fans should really be worried about the price. Sure, if I were an owner, I would want Pitcher B. As a fan, why should I care? Just get the best pitcher, it's not my money. If Pitcher B means the team will put the balance to work by acquiring another piece, then perhaps the cheaper pitcher is the better option. If not (which to me seems likely enough), then as a fan just get one of them...and frankly as a FAN (not an OWNER), I'd rather have Pitcher A (who's at least marginally better).

During Hot Stove season, fans enjoy posting things like "Teixeira is worth about 5 years, $90 million," etc, etc. That's the influence of fantasy sports. In terms of free agency, fans ought to want to see the Orioles fully in the thick of it. The problem of course is that free agents seem to get less and less attractive as teams lock up their young talent early.

So, if the team does jump in, should we really care about the cost? Payroll flexibility seems like a bit of a white elephant to me, unless you're the Royals, Twins, Marlins etc.

Trades are a different ballgame. Then, fans can and should evaluate whether the cost of losing certain players to acquire one was a good or bad deal based on long or short term objectives. When it comes to free agency, I don't know that the same logic applies. Spend big, trade and develop well. That wouldn't be too bad.

Fred -

Pitcher A is the 2008-09 version of John Lackey

Pitcher B is the 2007-2008 version of Jeremy Guthrie.

You raise an interesting point about fans and money, and I think you're right. Unless the O's are using the $13M they'll save by going with Guthrie over Lackey, what's the point?

This winter is a difficult one for me in that the Orioles do have a lot of talent and there isn't much franchise changing talent available - especially in the places that we need it.

When it comes to Lackey, the big thing is years. Sure, I guess it doesn't matter if he's "worth" $15M+, because it's not my money, but I really don't want to see this team, or any mid market team for that matter, invest five years in a guy who hasn't started his season until May each of the past two years. After Lackey, there isn't much available unless you're into reclamation projects (Sheets, Bedard) or overpaying for a career National Leaguer (Jason Marquis).

Then you've got Bay and Holliday in left field, but why pay one of those guys $18M per into their 36 or 37-year-old season when you can pay Reimold next to nothing to potentially put up similar numbers?

And the corner infield FA's aren't too inspiring, otherwise we wouldn't be talking about Kevin Kouzmanoff and Ryan Garko.

It's just a weird year. The Orioles have a pretty significant chunk of money to spend. Do I want to see them spend it? Sure. Should they spend it? Probably not.

There are some preliminary reports that a three-way deal including the Phils, M's and Jays will send Cliff Lee to to the M's and Holladay to the Phils.

Have you heard anything? I wonder what the other players involved are...who is getting whom?

Thanks!

Pete, Now that Lackey and Halladay appear to be off the board, it looks like the Yankees will be pushing harder to re-sign Wang. This is assuming he's healthy, because I'd be surprised to see New York go after someone it wasn't sure about, given the Pavano debacle.

I still have to believe, though, that Wang and his agent are going to take the opportunity of free agency to see what teams really want him, before signing anywhere...even with the Yankees.

But I think with what's on the verge of transpiring with the two aces, Cashman is going to be shifting gears and getting more involved in revisiting negotiations with Nero. What's your take?

I am just curious why pretty much everyone in this post is talking about signing another starter. Didn't we just get Millwood to eat innings? Why do we want to spend more money on garbage pitchers? We have Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman and Bergy for the rotation, so why add a Wang or Marqoius for big money when then are no better than the younger cheaper guys we have?? Isn't the whole point of rebuilding to grow the arms? So why does everyone want to sign another washed up stater off the scrap heap and push the young guys back in their development? I don't get it. Didn't you learn your lesson when we signed Koji to that big contract?! He was washed up in Japen yet we gave him millions to be a starter in MLB, Yeah that was pure brillance. The only move i can see is signing Bedard and trading Guthrie or moving him to the bullpen..other than that signing another golden oldie makes no sense... AND PLEASE DONT SAY YOU WANT TO BE COMPETITVE THIS YEAR!!that is the biggest crock of you know what... This team won't be good for at least 2 year and signing Wang or Marquois isn't the answer.

Pete, one question. Why don't they do the "non-tender" thing BEFORE the Winter Meetings? Seems it puts everyone on "pause" at the meetings, making them rather pointless in most cases, and I like a good excuse to drink as much as anybody..
but, wow.. it makes no sense MLB hasn't done this

Pete:

Maybe the Birds should go after Dick Diver as the color man.

By the way...have I mentioned that the Orioles suck? They just sit back while all the real moves are made by everyone else. Who the hell are we kidding? The Orioles will never ever contend. The Red Sox have now landed Lackey. What the hell? McFail is just that. Beltre is next on the Red Sox roster. Cross your fingers fans......maybe we'll get Jim Rice for $15 an hour.

oldtoys and others being real,

Please know that the Orioles plant some of their own warehousers on every relevant baltimore sports blog.

I'm not saying everyone is guilty of such, but trust me....there are enough!

It's not a conspiracy (so no one needs to hit me with that). Instead, it's just the way the warehouse thinks and markets.

The more people who are positive, the more it appears that fans are on board. It's a very simple strategy, and they do it well.

So be prepared to be attacked by the hired orange and black bleeders. They won't go away!

Just believe your eyes... believe what you see on the field and what you read in the standings. Anything else is just a lie!

Wayne,

The main one they planted runs this website :)

You idiots who complain constantly about the Orioles not emptying the bank to sign all these free agents need to realize something...just because the team might offer up the money doesn't mean the players will sign here.

Set aside your bias towards the Orioles, and ask yourself this...if you were offered a contract by a team that are annual contenders for the World Seriews, or the exact same contract by a team with 12 straight losing years, which one would you take? Be honest...the chance to play on a winning team, with a fan base that is supportive and fills the stadium game after game; or one that has been one of the worst teams in MLB for the past decade plus, with a fan base that barely shows up to games, where the O's are the "visiting team" in their own stadium when the Red Sox and Yankees are in town?

The only way to finally draw the interest of big name free agents is the way they are going about it...build from within, adding small parts here and there, and slowly climbing back to respectability. Until the results show up in the standings, no marquee free agent is going to want to come here without the O's grossly overpaying for them. And if the O's did overpay to get such a player, then in a few years they'll be right back in the same situation they've been for the past decade...with overpriced, aging veterans whose salaries they can't dump which hamper the team for years.

You idiots who complain constantly about the Orioles not emptying the bank to sign all these free agents need to realize something...just because the team might offer up the money doesn't mean the players will WANT to sign here.

Set aside your bias towards the Orioles, and ask yourself this...if you were offered a contract by a team that are annual contenders for the World Series, or the exact same contract by a team with 12 straight losing years, which one would you take? Be honest...the chance to play on a winning team, with a fan base that is supportive and fills the stadium game after game; or one that has been one of the worst teams in MLB for the past decade plus, with a fan base that barely shows up to games, where the O's are the "visiting team" in their own stadium when the Red Sox and Yankees are in town?

The only way to finally draw the interest of big name free agents is the way they are going about it...build from within, adding small parts here and there, and slowly climbing back to respectability. Until the results show up in the standings, no marquee free agent is ever going to want to come here without the O's grossly overpaying for them. And if the O's did overpay to get such a player, then in a few years they'll be right back in the same situation they've been for the past decade...with overpriced, aging veterans whose salaries they can't dump which hamper the team for years.

Love watching Wayne disintegrate right before our eyes. Just two weeks ago, he was simply another uber-negative poster ticked off about anything and everything Orioles, including the "O!" cheer. Now, he's graduated to conspiracy theories. The downward slide he's on, I'm steering clear on any bell towers in the near future.

FS,

Thanks for the note....... I expect and welcome such...

Just keep your eyes open. That's all any fair and open minded person would ask.... Just continue to watch since doing so speaks louder than I ever could.

That's fair enough. I will.

Please do the same, not just in Hot Stove where success or failure is merely speculative, but on the field, where the proof will be in the pudding.