Pete,

Please don't start making excuses about the free agent landscape and what a difficult time Andy Macphail may have getting the pieces the team needs to become competitive in 2010.

After 12 losing seasons in a row I don't want to hear it, and neither do the rest of the long suffering fans. The organization got itself into this situation and they need to get themselves out NOW, not in 2011 or 2012.

I am sick of the rebuilding talk, it is for losers.

It is time to win in 2010, whatever it takes.

...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Wasn't meant as an excuse, just looking at the landscape. Not letting anybody off the hook.

Pete: I agree that the free agent market is going to present a challenge to Andy MacPhail, but there are other avenues. For example, do you think Andy will take another look at the Japanese and Mexican leagues for players? No matter what happens, it should be a fun offseason. I don't think we should mortage the future by giving up our best prospects for free agents. We tried that and the result was lousy seasons in 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, etc. We've had years of futility BEFORE the 12 years of 1997 til today and alot of that came from signings like Lee Lacy and Don Aase and Doug Corbett and gosh knows who all else. Build the farm system. Look to new markets. Sign free agents like you would drink alcohol: RESPONSIBLY. We will get to the top again! Go O's!

Gil -

This difficulty in this year's free agent market has little to do with the Orioles recent history of failing to sign top players. It's just that there aren't many impact players available.

Sure, no one really wants to come here, but aside from John Lackey, who we might have due cause to be worried about since the Angels haven't been very aggressive in trying to resign him, and Matt Holliday, who on this market would you be willing to spend top dollar on? Maybe Jason Bay, but I'd rather let Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie continue to push each other in left. Maybe the competition forces both of them to step up their games and Pie breaks out, which would allow the team to move Reimold to first.

The best way to go about the coming hot stove season is to lock up a stop gap 1st and 3rd baseman, a veteran starter and then to invite as many relief arms as possible to camp. It also wouldn't be a bad idea to take a chance on a couple of guys coming back from injuries or bad seasons.

My choices?

1st Base: Trade for Jorge Cantu

3rd Base: Sign Adrian Beltre for no more than two years

Starter: Jason Marquis, Carl Pavano

Relievers: Kiko Calero, Jason Grilli, Brandon Lyon, Joe Beimel

Injured: Ben Sheets, Mark Prior (hey, he's still only 28), Troy Glaus, Conor Jackson (if the D-Back's DFA him, sign him immediately)

Comebacks: Bobby Crosby (can play every infield position but 2nd)

Whomever out there is tired of losing , raise your hand .
C'mon , Peter A . , throw some ducketts out there and get some help for this team !
I'm not twenty-something , I'm 51 , and have been following this team since the glory days .
What we're doing now ain't working .How much longer are we supposed to wait for the "plan" to come to fruition ???????????

I think the best they can do this year is:

Sign: Delgado (1b), Vlad Guerrero, and a vet starter (possibly Bedard).

Hope Delgado has one healthy season left in him.

Let Guerrerro and Reimold platoon between LF and DH. Guerrerro is the scary right handed bat we need.

Let that lineup go with a rotation of Tillman, Matusz, Bergeson, Guthrie, Veteran/Bedard.

Move Koji to long relief. Move Johnson back to setup Hope to find a closer within the organization. Hernandez maybe? I don't think he's a starter.

chone figgins : 3 yrs - 26 million
john lackey: 5 yrs - 80 million
left handed relief: 3yrs - 18 million

competing in the AL East : priceless

Peter,
I hope soon you will give us your offseason predictions!

Pete, the free agent list for this offseason is largely no big surprise. The potential list for the 2010 offseason is also out there, in a simple internet search.

Contract data for every player in MLB is available at websites such as
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005_01_04_mlbcontracts_archive.html

None of this should come as a surprise to the Orioles front office if they are on top of things as much as we hope they are. As such, this should have been factored into their planning long ago, well before this season ended.

Wouldn't it have been nice if the Orioles had been upfront with the fanbase, i.e. the paying public, that wins and losses didn't matter in 2009? It's called intellectual honesty. The fans deserve better.

I'd like Andy MacPhail to give a definitive date as to when this team should be competitive. No generalities. Give us the year !! Throw a bone to a fanbase that has been looking for a winner for 12 years.

Lay it all out for us, MacPhail. When is your grow the arms, buy the bats" mantra going to mean a winning record let alone a run for the playoffs?

Do we need to turn blue in the face waiting for someone to really hold their feet to the fire?

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: What would be the point of that when you apparently don't read anything about the team anyway? The Orioles said long before last season that they were not going to be competitive and would not be concerned with the won-loss record. I think the Adam Eaton signing pretty much confirmed that, but you apparently weren't paying attention. This year, they say they do care about wins and losses, but I can't imagine them being a winning team without some very surprising moves.

Pete we will have another president, the public option will be old hat by then, and home prices will be back to where they were by the time the orioles win. Andy will become the commish and the orioles will still be broken. And even you by that time will realize that 3rd place is considered successful. Yanks win there 27th world series starting tonight and the kids of this town can only dream about there home town team when playing on the little league field.Have a great winter pete and here's wishing you and your familiy a great holiday season.

Vote for Pedro! Seriously, they need a veteran mentor for the young staff. Bedard can not stay healthy although he i good when he can, but someone who has been there, done that would be nice. Closer is the position that scares me most. Wagner?

Wow, most of these are just... awful ideas. Pedro Martinez? Carlos Delgado? Mark Prior? I didn't realize it was 2001 and these were the guys who would take us from 63 wins to 90+. Maybe we should also lock up Ken Griffey Jr., Jim Thome and Kevin Appier to long term deals while we're at it.

Lackey and Chone would be good fits, but it sounds like Lackey is pretty unlikely. Adrian Gonzalez would be great too, but if we're going to move some of our young pitching for him, we need to replace it with one or two vets to plug the rotation, so we aren't trapped with guys like Jason Berken and Alfredo Simon as starters.

Thank goodness Schmuck is our blogger and not any of you.

b,

Your analysis and logic is impeccable, but that's exactly what I'm talking about when it comes to the organization already using favored media such as Pete to begin lowering expectations for 2010.

Heck, Pete is already running interference for the warehouse by saying that Lackey is probably out of reach for the Orioles. Why?
If he is the best out there let's man up and sign him. Don't already start whining the Yankees or Red sox are going to overpay and get him. Angelos has the money. Just do it.

And Pete, for Chr**s sake don't help these people equivocate and skate any longer. Hold their feet to the fire and make Macphail's life miserable unless serious acquisitions are made and a lot of money spent.

They will come here if the money is right. The Orioles may have to pay crazy money to turn this mess around quickly, but they have had 12 years to put it in the bank.

Enough losing is enough. Period. As George Allen said, "The future is now".

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Pete's reply: Gil, you've lost me here. I'm not allowed to evaluate the free agent crop without you calling me a club lackey (and not the right lackey)? That's bush league. I'm not letting the club off the hook on 2010. They need to be much more competitive. But the market is the market. What exactly is "favored media," by the way. I'm still trying to get my first phone call returned from Peter Angelos since 2006.

Regardless of who is added, the Orioles harmed their chances of improvement next season when they retained Trembley, Crowley, and Samuel (especially the latter two.) The quickest way to improve the team's offense is by improving the team's plate discipline and thus increase team OBP to a higher ranking in the league, but that won't happen with Crowley's aggressive approach. Improved offense would make life easier for the pitchers, who wouldn't always have to think "we can't allow three or four runs, or fall a couple of runs behind, or the team will lose," which puts extra pressure on them. Do you think the Yankees, Red Sox, or Angels pitchers have to think like that? No way, as those teams have strong offenses with disciplined hitters that can come back from almost any deficit at any time in the game. Our offenses haven't had that aura and ability for years.

The free agent market is weak, which is why MacPhail should have considered improving the players we have, as there no "put a team over the top" players available. Get the team OBP up to Yankees range (.360 or better.)

As for Samuel, he's a great asset - to anyone playing the Orioles.

Hey blancione,

I'll take the moneyline that you don't follow through on your promises to go away since Trembley is staying.

Oh wait, yeah you've already proved that.

Drama Queen.

J-Wiz -

Tell me, my friend, what would be so bad about signing Pedro, Delgado or Prior to the right deal? And by the right deal, this is what I mean:

Pedro: 1 year, $5M + incentives
Delgado: 1 year, $5M + incentives
Prior: 1 year, $500K + incentives

Teams that don't have a ton of money (ie: teams that aren't based in New York, Boston or LA) need to get creative to win. Remember when the A's signed old, washed up Frank Thomas to a $500K deal + incentives in 2006? What happened? It was the right deal. Big Frank hit 39 homers and the A's made it to the ALCS. And if it wasn't the right deal, Oakland was only out $500K. Chump change for any team.

And sure, $5M is a lot more than $500K, but the Orioles also have a lot more money than the A's.

A few more notes on Pedro, Delgado and Prior:

Pedro: Not even close to the stuff he had with Boston, but still gets by. And a veteran presence on the young staff is imperative at this point.

Delgado: Hurt in '09. Averaged 33 homers and 106 rbi from '04 to '08. Not bad.

Prior: Hurt all the time, but that's why I put him on my "injured" list. There's probably a one in a million chance that he's healthy enough to make a difference, but I'd take that chance for $500K. Especially if health = the 3.23 ERA he averaged from '03 to '05.

In short, if you don't agree with someone, don't be an ass.

BMS please save that money and spend it on tickets to the games.As long at dave t is managing this team that post above will be my last.

He's doing it again, everyone!

Bob is threatening to leave us!

Last time it was for what? 48 Hours?

What's the over/under this time?

The Orioles will start winning when the young starting pitchers mature and blossom. Whether this happens in 2010, 2011, 2012, etc., pitching is the key. The Orioles scored plenty of runs in 2009.

For the 1st / 3rd base openings, the priority should be solid defense. I think Aubrey proved he can play very good defense at 1st base; given the opportunity in 2010, he will contribute at the plate too. The last thing the Orioles should do is sign a mediocre defender to gain 20 home runs at the corner infield.

Not to minimize the importance of savvy roster moves. I'm saying that Orioles fans should get real. Free agents and home run hitters won't turn this thing around. It hinges on pitching and defense.

Tom Paine

Beltre -- as those of us in the West know, to put it bluntly, he sucks. He had a single, steroid filled pre-free agent year. Other than that, he has been oft-injured. OK, he is a good glove and (allegedly) isn't too old. Essentially, he is Melvin Mora. Also, he has a habit of bringing down entire organizations with his awful attitude. Other than that, a great idea. He is on the DO NOT TOUCH pile.

Here are some ideas --

Sign Craig Counsell as a back up to Itsuris. Left handed hitter allows for platooning Itsuris more. He can back up at all IF spots. He's cheap. He is a proven pinch hitter. Great guy off the bench -- almost .800 OPS vs righties. Yes, he is 39 or 40 -- but he is a perfect fit as a pair to Itsuris. In games Counsell starts at SS, you have Izzy to come in to play D.

Glaus for a year is a great idea. And, when Bell is ready, you have the luxury of a possible platoon for someone (Bell) who has a track record of being weak vs. lefties. Take advantage of him being a cheap option. Also, he has experience in the AL East. And, if need be, can play 1b down the road.

Nick Johnson for a year at 1b is also fine -- at worst, it buys time for Snyder and/or platoons with him -- at best he is a healthy, on-base machine with a great glove.

Release Wiggington -- addition by subtraction. He is everything you don't want -- horrible approach at the plate, bad glove, no speed, overweight, poor baserunner -- a potentially awful influence on the young Birds. Wiggy, here are your parting gifts and thanks for playing in 2009 with us.

Now that is a bench -- Pie/Reimold/Scott sitter, Bell/Glaus sitter, Snyder/Johnson sitter, Itsuris/Counsell sitter, and Moeller -- and Wiggy is gone.

Pitchers --

-- If Bedard wants to be here for an incentive laden contract for a year or two -- we should welcome him with open arms. High upside. He is also the devil WE KNOW. Only caveat -- is he a bad influence too? If so, forget him. I have heard mixed things about him over the years. I suspect, he is just a "quiet guy" who would thrive in a less pressured environment (than being the centerpiece of a failed trade in Seattle). Face it, Baltimore is going to be "less pressured" for a couple more years.

Lackey won't come -- don't waste your time thinking about it.

Bullpen -- there are a bunch of closers out there as free agents. Pick one, pay him decently for 1-2 year deal, swallow hard and hope for the best. I like Valverde and even Rodney, but all are cross your fingers and swallow hard guys. Gonzalez is intriguing because he is a lefty which would balance things a bit (and there is always a July market for guys like him -- e.g., Sherrill)

One more lefty for the bullpen -- I am all for Hendrickson and Castillo getting shots -- but a 3rd guy doesn't hurt. Beimel or others -- let the scouts pick. Again, short term deal.

Finally, if someone would overvalue Guthrie and give us an everyday hitter like a Hardy or a solid 1b/3b for Guthrie and change, you have to make a deal like that. It would mean finding a substitute innings eater -- but they are available. I am not opposed to keeping Guts, but if some decent team values him as a 2/3 starter, then make the deal

Beltre -- as those of us in the West know, to put it bluntly, he sucks. He had a single, steroid filled pre-free agent year. Other than that, he has been oft-injured. OK, he is a good glove and (allegedly) isn't too old. Essentially, he is Melvin Mora. Also, he has a habit of bringing down entire organizations with his awful attitude. Other than that, a great idea. He is on the DO NOT TOUCH pile.

Here are some ideas --

Sign Craig Counsell as a back up to Itsuris. Left handed hitter allows for platooning Itsuris more. He can back up at all IF spots. He's cheap. He is a proven pinch hitter. Great guy off the bench -- almost .800 OPS vs righties. Yes, he is 39 or 40 -- but he is a perfect fit as a pair to Itsuris. In games Counsell starts at SS, you have Izzy to come in to play D.

Glaus for a year is a great idea. And, when Bell is ready, you have the luxury of a possible platoon for someone (Bell) who has a track record of being weak vs. lefties. Take advantage of him being a cheap option. Also, he has experience in the AL East. And, if need be, can play 1b down the road.

Nick Johnson for a year at 1b is also fine -- at worst, it buys time for Snyder and/or platoons with him -- at best he is a healthy, on-base machine with a great glove.

Release Wiggington -- addition by subtraction. He is everything you don't want -- horrible approach at the plate, bad glove, no speed, overweight, poor baserunner -- a potentially awful influence on the young Birds. Wiggy, here are your parting gifts and thanks for playing in 2009 with us.

Now that is a bench -- Pie/Reimold/Scott sitter, Bell/Glaus sitter, Snyder/Johnson sitter, Itsuris/Counsell sitter, and Moeller -- and Wiggy is gone.

Pitchers --

-- If Bedard wants to be here for an incentive laden contract for a year or two -- we should welcome him with open arms. High upside. He is also the devil WE KNOW. Only caveat -- is he a bad influence too? If so, forget him. I have heard mixed things about him over the years. I suspect, he is just a "quiet guy" who would thrive in a less pressured environment (than being the centerpiece of a failed trade in Seattle). Face it, Baltimore is going to be "less pressured" for a couple more years.

Lackey won't come -- don't waste your time thinking about it.

Bullpen -- there are a bunch of closers out there as free agents. Pick one, pay him decently for 1-2 year deal, swallow hard and hope for the best. I like Valverde and even Rodney, but all are cross your fingers and swallow hard guys. Gonzalez is intriguing because he is a lefty which would balance things a bit (and there is always a July market for guys like him -- e.g., Sherrill)

One more lefty for the bullpen -- I am all for Hendrickson and Castillo getting shots -- but a 3rd guy doesn't hurt. Beimel or others -- let the scouts pick. Again, short term deal.

Finally, if someone would overvalue Guthrie and give us an everyday hitter like a Hardy or a solid 1b/3b for Guthrie and change, you have to make a deal like that. It would mean finding a substitute innings eater -- but they are available. I am not opposed to keeping Guts, but if some decent team values him as a 2/3 starter, then make the deal

Tom -

Michael Aubrey is NOT the answer at first base. Heck, I'd take Ty Wigginton at first over Aubrey.

He may be a good defender, but Aubrey's minor league line looks like this: .259 avg, .310 obp, .444 slg. In limited time with the O's last year, his OBP was .326. Even if he's a great defender, that's not going to cut it. Ever hear of Doug Mientkiewicz?

Any updates on Bergesen's health? The last time I heard anything he still had trouble running.

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: It took him quite a while to shake that bone bruise off, but I think he's okay and will be fine for spring training.

Bart -

Beltre sucks? Sure, he had that huge year in LA, and whether it was steroid influenced or not, it was a major outlier. But...

Beltre's averaged 25 homers and 88 rbi from '05 to '07, before an injury plagued 2009. Plus, the guy is probably the best defensive third baseman in the American League.

Sure, he's not a superstar, and he's not going to hit 48 homers again, but he certainly doesn't suck.

A few more things on Beltre...

Oft-injured?

Exclude his first season, when he only played 77 games and this past season when he only played 111, and he's averaged 149 games per year.

Heck, include the rookie year and 2009 and he's averaged 140 per.

Bad attitude?

If I remember correctly, Beltre loved LA, was willing to accept less money to stay there and even cried when he talked about leaving. I also seem to remember a story about the Dodgers telling him he was their top priority and then proceeding to ignore him.

And I've never heard a thing about Beltre-caused dysfunction in Seattle.

And one more thing about Beltre: He plays balls out every night. The guy's a competitor.

In short, I'd love to have him in Baltimore.

I can't see the Orioles making a serious run at 2010. But that's OK. The progress in the organization is obvious.

Don't sign a 3B because Josh Bell might be ready by next summer. Don't sign an outfielder because we already have 4 or 5, depending on how you count them.

We could still use a shortstop and a first baseman, but I don't see any values there. Orlando Cabrera isn't all that much better than Izturis at this point, certainly not enough to make a fuss over. Nick Johnson is OK when healthy, but he's not a building block. I wouldn't bother.

If the O's were one big hitter away from competing, I could see trading prospects for Gonzalez or Fielder. But they're not.

I wish they could compete in 2010. But they can't, no matter what they do or what they spend.

So the sensible thing to do is accept and admit that it's another rebuilding year. Trade veterans at peak value (Scott?) and give tryouts to other teams' failed prospects (Guthrie and Pie).

I can see light on the horizon, but it's in 2011.

I don't think you should leave Bob, I like seeing your "all knowing" locks for the week. I have to admit the Skins to win was silly, I do like anyone and everyone's input on spreads for the weekend. I think almost everyone over analyzes their picks to a degree.

section 34 wrote - " I can see light on the horizon .... "
Those are the tail lights of the rest of the AL East .

A chance to improve? Perhaps.... Will they improve? Doubtful.

Look towards 2011 gang.

My two fav teams are owned by PA aka Mr Potter & the Human Hobbit aka Danny Snyder..... I am still trying to figure out what I did to the sports Gods to have two of the worst owners in sports own my fav teams.

What's the Os salary ceiling if OPCY is averaging 38,000 a night? The Os are at disadvantage playing the AL east because in order to make the playoffs, they have to be one of the 3 best teams in all of baseball, whereas the twins were probably around the 10th best (I think I'm being kind). They would've been barely .500 had they played the AL East 18 times each. Tex was never coming to balt (losing franchise) or DC (highest bidder) The Os should've pushed that bid up to whatever is just below what A-Rod is making. Tex woudld've been more 'valuable' all round to the Os than any other team. And don't start calling angelos a good owner because he vetoed one bad trade. Fact is, Brian Roberts is maybe the 3rd best 2b in the division (Aaron hill had a huge year)and 2b are a dime a dozen so getting a lot for B-Rob just ain't happening unless a contender's 2b goes down during the season. Andy is wrong not to consider giving up prospects to get Fielder as the guy brings more than just a big bat. He's a leader and that's hard to put a price tag on. I DONT see why PA got gun-shy after the Belle debacle. That's baseball, every signing is a gamble, . Basically you have to overpay for quality FA's and hope they produce the first 50-75% of the contract length then trade em just in time to get some value (tejada). Os will be better next year because the rotation is set and should pitch deeper into games.
And seriously Gil, what would you do, offer Lackey (1 year with more than 14 wins, 3.81 ERA) 6 years, 269 million? The Os aren't going after FAs in a vacuum.

OriAl is correct. Most of the teams that make the playoffs have high obp.

cush

section 34 -

It's fun to think about what prospects MIGHT do in the bigs, but that's no reason to hold off on getting help now.

This team NEEDS to sign/trade for a first AND third baseman, regardless of what Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder are doing in the minors and the AFL. The fact is, we have no clue if either of those guys can make the jump to the bigs. Snyder already had trouble making the jump from AA to AAA. Bell's taken his fair share of lumps.

Now is the time for action, not inaction, even if that action is just some help for the next year or two.

1. Give Aubrey a shot at first base. He can field great, and has the potential to be a fine major league hitter, although he will not hit more than 25 or so home runs.

2. Trade for David Wright from the Mets, to play third base. Do this without disturbing the core nucleous that has been developed of young position players and pitchers. Something like Guthrie, Pie, Bell for Wright. Wright is a fine player, is a terrific third baseman, and would be a fine cleanup hitter for several years to come.

3. Sign one good starter from the free agents available. Lackey would be great, but he will probably go to Yankees. If Pettite is not resigned by Yankees, try to sign him. Pavano might be worth a try. Not sure if Bedard can pitch a full season, as he never really has! When healthy, he's very good, though.

4. Sign all the good minor league free agents possible for Norfolk, and hope to get one or two that will help in late 2010 or beyond.

I feel we can be a much better team in 2010 than we were this year, mainly from the maturity of the young pitchers and position players. Getting the good cleanup hitter to play 3d base is the priority item, in my view.

Ron A. in Rochester

Ron -

David Wright is not going to be traded. He's the present and future of the Mets. He's a Gold Glove defender who has averaged 27 homers, 107 rbi and a .907 ops in his six seasons in the bigs. Oh, and he's only 27 years old.

Even the Mets were considering trading Wright, the O's would have to offer Matusz, Tillman, Bell, Snyder and probably another prospect to even get talks started.

And what's with all this love for Michael Aubrey? Four words: He. Is. Not. Good.

Something to think about. To me, the Orioles are the most interesting team in baseball for next season. I love the home grown flavor of the team and would rather root for this type of team than the NY and Bostons of the world

Can they get there from here? All depends on your definition of here doesn't it?
The Orioles have a chance to be a .500 club next year. That's not going to be enough for a lot of fans, but it will do for me.
I expect decent improvements out of Reimold and Weiters, and out of several of our young pitchers. If we get someone like Beltre or Glaus, and a decent innings eater, and the youngsters improve, then yes they can get there with some luck.

Just a quick follow up. I would like to hear what teams the other fans would trade next years Orioles for.

florida -

I'm with you. Even before any additions, I like the makeup of this team...

Infield - Wieters, Roberts, Izturis
Outfield - Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Pie
Rotation - Guthrie, Bergesen, Matusz, Tillman
Pen - Johnson, Mickolio, Castillo, Hendrickson, Berken, Hernandez

Add Adrian Beltre to play third, a Nick Johnson or a Jorge Cantu to play first, a more athletic utility guy like Bobby Crosby and a veteran starter like Jason Marquis or Carl Pavano and you've got a pretty solid team.

STOP with the give Michael Aubrey a shot at 1b. At best, he's a platoon/ph/def replacement. Beltre? Nope. .326 OBP lifetime. Delgado? .383 obp lifetime, you gotta like that. I'd give him an offer. Nick Johnson? Hurt a lot! .402 obp. and announcers talk about how Bobby Abreau has shown the angels that you can be patient and still get your hits. Delgado or Johnson could do the same thing. The Os were what, 4th with RISP? Doesn't matter when you have no RISP. I'd love to know how many times Texieria batted in the 1st inning this year with nobody on? And b is right, what's wrong with having too much talent that you have to wait an extra 6 months before you bring a minor leaguer up? what better way to KNOW they are ready.

florida -

Before free agency, I would trade the 2010 Orioles for the...

...Rays - With rebounds from B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena, continued success from Ben Zobrist and improvement upon rookie seasons from David Price and Wade Davis, they could easily make another run for the AL East crown.

...A's - Ryan Sweeney and Rajai Davis make up two thirds of a dynamic outfield. Kurt Suzuki, Mark Ellis, Cliff Pennington and Davis make them strong up the middle. The pitching is already there and if Chris Carter (1B/OF) and Brett Wallace (3B) make the jump to the bigs next season, they could make a serious run.

...Giants - They're a big bat short of seriously competing in a tight NL West.

...Cardinals - Especially if they can hold on to Matt Holliday.

...Dodgers - Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Clayton Kershaw and Jonathan Broxton make up one of the best young cores in the game. If Russell Martin and Chad Billingsley rebound, they'll be tough to beat.

Aubrey 25 HR? LOL Riiiiight. If he hit 10-12 I'd be surprised. He might hit .280, but this team can't afford a doubles/singles hitter at 1B.

Wright from the Mets??? File that one under pipe dream...

cush -

Beltre's 30 years old, he averaged 25 homers and 88 rbi in the AL before he got hurt this year and he's a Gold Glove defender.

Who cares if he's got a low OBP? He's better than anyone else available (unless you think the O's have a shot at Figgins).

Hey b
Good stuff. Thanks for the great observations. Win or lose, this season should be fun!

b, here is the problem with signing a pedro, delgado or prior. This team won 63 games last year, we aren't close to competing. The players you mentioned are fillers, its no different from signing players like wigginton and aubrey huff when we signed them. And while Delgado has been decently productive the last few years as a Met, the fact of the matter is hes an aging player coming off of a major injury, and there isn't a lot of upside there for a player like that.

That will cost you a decent chunk of change and for what? To boost us into the 70-80 win range? I'm all for making a move for Lackey or Gonzalez, but we need to stop wasting everyone's time with these minimal impact players and competing half-a$$. We cut a monster portion of our payroll this offseason, its time to spend that money on something worthwhile.

Patience. "Tom Paine" has the big picture right - this nucleus will succeed or fail based on the career path of Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, etc... as well as the young hitters, of course.

I do think there are some pieces available that could be very helpful to the team's long-term plans, though. Jason Bay (at DH) is one of them, but you'd have to surrender a draft pick to sign him...

Lackey, sure, but you'd pay through the nose for him. There are some other interesting arms, at the right price: Harden; Webb, whose injury may mean his option isn't picked up; Marquis, who was very good for 5 months last year and has a talent for keeping the ball in the yard that the O's staff could, um, learn something about.

There are many bullpen arms available that could help shore up that unit, but I would also guess that one or two or three of the O's young starters are headed there, and that could be very good for the team.

But there isn't that transformational player (let's face it, there's no Teixeira) that the Orioles can sign to catapult them to the next level.

So...be patient. Improve the team without giving up or blocking young talent. Maybe bring in some fiery competitors like Mark DeRosa or John Smoltz (to close!).

With all respect, it seems to me that most Orioles fans have all been drinking from the same water cooler.

The 2010 Orioles don't need 50 home runs out of the corner infielders. With young pitchers that you need to develop, good defense matters more. Give me speed, athleticism, and a nose for the ball, please

Between the outfielders and Weiters, there will be plenty of power in 2010 and plenty of runs.

Lol,

Pete, you knew you'd get the whacko's out with this subject.....

Folks, the Orioles do not have a chance in hell with the current ownership in place.

The team is run by PA's underlings now (you don't believe it? wake up!), and they could care less if the O's win next year or any year.

They want you to think Baltimore is a small market city (they aren't) and they want as many apologist on their side as possible.

They brought in AM because 'they knew' he works at a snails pace, while effectively selling the promise of better days ahead (see first 9 years with the cubs).

And you all have bought in...

To top it all off, the local media will continue to follow their company line because the O's supply needed advertising/revenue to local radio, tv and print. Times are tough indeed!

So get ready for year #13 of pure 'pathetic' everyone. Baltimore's best hope is that the Pirates continue their string of losing seasons. Otherwise, the O's will catch, then surpass their record in no time.

Call me one of the whacko's by the way..... At least I see what's happening!

Cheers!

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Pete's reply: I don't know if you're a whacko Wayne, but you're a one-trick pony who only thinks he's way, way smarter than everybody else. This ridiculous mantra about how we all toe the company line is crap and it's offensive. I've never been told by anyone what to write....anyone...and I have nothing to do with advertising and sponsorships in print or on the radio. I guess nobody told you that WBAL hasn't had the rights or any relationship with the Orioles in years, but that would be a fact and people who make it up as they go along don't like facts. The fact that you and others use this as an argument is proof that you have no argument, just a lot of misdirected bitterness. And while I'm on the subject, you've fallen into the "George W. Bush is a moron and an evil genius" approach to criticizing the team. You spend half your time saying how stupid the Orioles are, then give them credit for running an intricate conspiracy to create a business that makes tons of money while losing on purpose.

J-Wiz -

I understand what you're saying, but I have to disagree.

This team is at a point where it needs some veteran leadership, as well as some place fillers, or stop gaps or whatever you want to call them.

Signing Pedro or Delgado to a one year, incentive-laden deal is completely different than the Huff and Wigginton deals. Huff got three years guaranteed and was expected to be the starting first baseman/DH in each of those three seasons. Wigginton got two years and was expected to... well, I'm not exactly sure what was expected from Wiggy...

Anyways... The point of a short, incentive-laden contract is that the player who signs it isn't necessarily expected to be a big part of the team. Usually, players are signed to those types of deals because the team that signs them is looking for a short term solution until better options present themselves. In the Orioles case, those better options are Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder.

Anyways, I'm all for signing John Lackey or Matt Holliday or Chone Figgins or even Jason Bay. I know that this team has money, and now would be a great time to spend it on an impact starter and hitter to go along with the young guys. But as far as first base goes, the market is pretty bare, and I'm not too keen on giving up four or five of our top 10 prospects for Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder. Carlos Delgado on a one year deal sounds like a great plan to me.

Isn't Pedro Feliz a free agent? The guy was good in San Fran and now in Philly.

If the Dodgers don't pick up Garland's option, the O's should go hard after him. It didn't work out for them last year, but no denying that he's the type of pitcher who will give you innings and leadership which is missing on this staff.

I really like Jim Thome, as the DH. He would provide protection for Nick and he still will give you 30+ HRs.

Lastly, get Bobby Abreu! The guy will lead by example, show plate discipline, steal bases, knock in runs and flat out give everything he has. A guy like him is needed in Baltimore.

i wouldnt like Delgado considering his age and the fact that hes a lefty. I would love to see them get a true right handed power threat.

Hi Pete,

My point is that you may be assessing what appears to be the current landscape, but that can all change with one trade. The only way the Orioles can become competetive now is to add proven talent. And they have the money to do it. Yes we have prospects but that's all they are. There is proven talent out there both at third and first and there are proven starting and relief pitchers to be had.

Frankly I am sick and tired of talking rebuilding and as I said before that term is for losers. The Yankees don't rebuild, nor do the Red Sox.

I did not mean to infer that you were a lackey for the team, but the thread seemed to give Macphail some cover. My God, don't give this organization any cover or any benefit of the doubt or you will be writing the same story line in 2015, I will probably be dead, and the kool aid drinkers on your blog will be getting tingley feelings up their legs about all of our "prospects"

Wayne has it right until Angelos proves him wrong. We have lost TWELVE YEARS in a row Pete, going on 13.

Screw patience, logic, and rebuilding. The Orioles need to go get the players and stop playing the fans for loyal idiots.

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Fair enough. So who are the frontline position players and pitchers who are available in trade for the Orioles prospects? The Padres have indicated they won't trade Adrian Gonzalez. The Brewers may trade Prince Fielder. Would you trade Brian Matusz for him? (I wouldn't) Or Chris Tillman and Nolan Reimold? (I might) Who are the starting pitchers in the free agent market you would pay big money to? Harden? It's just a soft market after Lackey, and they can waste the winter bidding on him, but they won't get him. I hope they take a chance on somebody, but I sure don't want Matusz to become the next Roy Halladay in a Brewers uniform.

So, let me get this straight. Last year, when the talent was available, it was not the right time. But, after an abismal season, the time is right, but the talent pool isn't there?
Give me a break! You are telling us the Oriole Executive Team could not predict the upcoming talent pool last year based on contract analyses? Or that the Executives could not predict the need for power hitting infielders, outfielders, and starting pitching this year?
No wonder the Orioles are struggling if its Executives can only evaluate its opportunities to improve on a year by year basis and does not take investment risks when available.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: What talent was available last year that you think the Orioles had a real chance to get?

Pete's reply: What would be the point of that when you apparently don't read anything about the team anyway? The Orioles said long before last season that they were not going to be competitive and would not be concerned with the won-loss record.

Hey Pete, I actually read a lot more than you give me credit for. For example, your own Jeff Zrebiec said the following on October 4:

"Though nobody with any authority said so publicly, the 2009 season was never about wins and losses for the Orioles. "

OOPS.

About my request for a firmer outline of the plan, when do you think we'll get one? I will be reading your paper daily to look for it.

I'm glad this year they care about the wins-losses. Somehow it doesn't instill me with any confidence that they won't sign the next Steve Trachsel / Adam Eaton to provide that "veteran presence."

...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I quoted MacPhail a couple of times saying that the plan was to hopefully get some kind of upturn in performance at the end of 2009 to give some momentum for the offseason going into 2010. It was clear that they were not trying to win this year and you know that. Obviously, no team holds a press conference and says, "Hey, we're not going to try to win" but Jeff and I wrote numerous times that the team was building beyond this year. I think it's funny that you say you'd just like the team to tell you they aren't going to win. If they had done that, you would have had a cow.

By the way, Pete, on March 1st, your former colleague, Roch Kubatko had this to say about the Eaton acquisition

"The Orioles discussed Eaton with Phillies officials at the GM meetings, and again at the winter meetings. He's been on their radar for a long time, so signing him isn't entirely due to the recent injuries that have struck Brad Hennessey, Rich Hill and John Parrish.

"The release surprised us some because we had intended to see him if he pitched this spring," team president Andy MacPhail said. "We wanted to make sure our scouts went in and saw him. He was on our target list, but since he was available today, we put in a call as soon as we knew he was released. A couple of other clubs clearly had interest, but they must have weighed the opportunity as one that made sense for us.

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Pete's reply: Wow, do you have any Watergate evidence? Where were you last spring when Andy said they wouldn't even look at Pedro Martinez because they weren't looking to spend any significant money on guys who would only be here for one year. They signed Eaton and Mark Hendrickson to fill out the major league rotation and you're acting like you were fooled into thinking they might be good. Geez. What did you think Andy was going to say about Eaton, "We think this guy really sucks, but we thought we'd sign him since the Phillies have to pay his salary?" Maybe if you had read the stuff at the time instead of going on Google and finding it now, you would have had a sense for what was really being said. Everybody -- except you, apparently -- knew what was going on. Not many people were happy about it, but they weren't blindsided.

nice job pete. for what it's worth, i did enjoy what amounted to a brief lull in PA/AM / general Oriole bashing. I figured it was only a matter of time before it would resume with good force, maybe until at least after the Series(The Late Fall Classic). I guess not.
I mean even the real GM and the actual players take a well-deserved break.
How about next year we all hop on a cruise with the O's organization and some folks can give them an in-person earful for 2 weeks or so? Who needs a blog when the horrible history and sins of the stingy owner, the buffoonery of the GM and his deceitful ways can finally be exposed, the clownish antics of the n'eer do well players can be discussed up close and personal over a few cocktails?

That'll just be so much fun!!

I just can't believe that they'd tire so soon of bashing the Ravens...

b

I'm not a beltre hater and i'm asking lot. he reminds me of Soriano (over rated) in that he doesn't strike fear into a p in a clutch situation...he can be pitched to and even gotten out without throwing a strike.

I would rather see the Os make a serious run at Figgins...anything to get Jones out of the #2 spot in the order. Figgins/Roberts/Markakis is a strong top 3. Weiters/Reimold/Jones/Scott is a solid 5-8. Isturiz is cool at #9. CLEANUP! Delgado, Glaus, somebody with power and some patience.

"Screw patience, logic, and rebuilding."
Gil

Gil, if you plead that you don't read what you write before you post it to give it a quick idiot check, or tell me that you don't even think before your fingers hit the keyboard, I can almost give you a pass for that statement as that would explain it away.

But if not, please explain your way out of how "screwing logic" helps build a better ballclub. This should be interesting.

The success of the Orioles -- however defined -- is more likely linked to the development of the youngsters already in the fold and getting a full six months from Markakis and Roberts than any player who may be available as a free agent.

Almost of the free agent names mentioned above are the same suspects I saw when looking the possibilities up. Quite frankly, I am rather ho-hum to some degreee about all of them.

Some have flaws. Some were recently injured. Some have an injury history. Some are less than the sum of their stats.

I have two main interests for the Orioles for this offseason. Before mentioning both of those, my comments are outside the boundaries of what might be through the trade route. It is difficult to know who might be expendable and waht the associated cost might be.

I would try to borrow a ploy from our big-money cousins of the AL East. I would target players from the genuine small markets of MLB.

My first main interest for the Orioles is to get decent place-holders for 1B and 3B (again, unless a stud is available from another means). The bank shouldn't be broken for them. The contract length should be no more than two years with a possible club option on a third year.

I whined about the lack of effort in signing studs last offseason. There are no studs this offseason. I don't believe players half as good should get half as much money. They should get less, considerably less. There should be a geometric relationship between talent and salary, not linear.

I know "place-holders" is an unflattering term. Nevertheless, it would stop the flow of youngsters being promoted too soon in their development.

It would be nice to get a starter, a reliever (or two, or three, haha), and another OF. Same rules apply as above.

One name I would interject here is Jeremy Guthrie. He had a bad year last year. We can speculate all we want as to why he had a bad year -- I have my opinion on that -- but I believe it was just that. A bad year.

The second aspect to the Orioles I will be looking at is the farm system. I want every level to have progress as compared to 2009.

I also want to see more power in the minors. I want to see pitchers work their way deeper into games. I know they are young, and one can't be ignorant of pitch counts. But when these guys do develop and are part of the Orioles in 2011 or beyond, I want their effectiveness to determine if they continue in a game or not.

Unless the Orioles totally fall flat on filling the basic needs, they should be ten games better than last year just with their returning core. If not, the team needs to take a serious look at their player development program.

Jim66,

Can't you write a post without personal attacks? I will never respond to you or others like you. This is a blog not your journalism class. Grow up

Gil,

Sorry for the personal attack. The sentence just caught me the wrong way i guess.

I should have stated in a nicer manner that I believe logic plays an important part in building a ballclub, and dispensing with it might lead to what some see as an even an even more dire circumstances.
Though i don't believe the circumstance is nearly as dire as 3 years ago before
a capable baseball man was brought in to put things in order. I guess it's not so easy flipping things around. I won't pretend to speak for him and say things haven't gone as planned. How would I even know that?

I happen to agree with the approach that they are taking. The team continues to draft well, develop some players, make some trades to bring in a few younger players, lock up some of the younger players(which it may need to continue to do), and not make rash decisions that will again forfeit the future. Unfortunately for the Orioles, the future is not now.
I know that puts me in the category of 'people who like losing' .

Maybe if I went on and on about the failings of Angelos and the Orioles,
and demanded to know things like timelines, and demanded accountability, and demanded the pursuit of players who have no intention of playing in Baltimore, I could demonstrate how much I hate losing.

The only thing I hate about the rebuilding plan is that it has started about 5 years too late. Sorry, I'll try and refrain from using the the word 'rebuilding'. Perhaps 'overhaul' would be a better choice.

Now, does throwing logic out the window help the Orioles be better?

Jim66,

Everything you just said is absolutely correct. Everything that could be said about Angelos and the Organization has altready beeen said, it's just different people saying it.

I was on board with the rebuilding plan until recently when I realized that even if the Orioles go through a succesful regeneration of talent and win a division championship in a few years, that success cannot be sustained because of the Yankees and the Red Sox. Since 1995, the American League East has been won by a team other than the Yankees or the Red Sox only twice, once by Tampa Bay and once by the Orioles. The Yankees have won it eleven times.

Why wait for another three years or so to compete to maybe win one time? That's why I believe that the Orioles should pursue a "win now" strategy. No one can predict the future. There is a nucleous of young talent in the organization, but thats all it is at this time.

That's why I said that rebuilding is for losers, especially in the American League East.

Pete,

Acttually I wasn't blindsided by the won-loss record. In fact I expected it when the big signings are Uehara, Hendrickson, and Izturis. I deliberately compared Eaton to Trachsel - same crapola, different year.

Keep badgering me about 2009 and not addressing the tough questions about 2010 and beyond.

Want an early prediction for 2010? Losing season #13 in a row. Really going out on a limb, huh?

MacPhail could have said Eaton provides a valuable "veteran presence," and left it at that. By saying we targeted this guy, it makes him look foolish. By the way, every time we see you guys print the tired expression "veteran presence" the translation is someone who's going to pitch batting practice, but more importantly can be had cheap.

Who's kidding who? We didn't target Pedro because a) he'd cost more than Eaton, and b) Pedro has some pride left and wants to play for a winner.

In short, Pete, I knew last year was a lost cause.

When are we going to have a team that doesn't play .324 ball for the entire second half of the season? Before you respond about how trading Huff and his .725 OPS absolutely killed the offense and how trading Sherrill decimated the bullpen, keep in mind the second half winning percentage in 2008 was .328.

What I'm looking for is someone in management to grow a backbone and tell us exactly when we can have a season that won't be effectively over in June.

When can we expect a winner? Is that too tough a question to get answered?

I agree with poster that commented starting with the excuses to rebuilding. It's high past time for results not patience . Have the O's ever
felt a twinge of accountability
for their shotcomings? Lets get to work . Several years ago 2009 was to be the breakout year? Someone needs to turn the heat up. enough with trotting out unacceptible relievers. Lets jettison Ray and some others and at least get mediocre bullpen pitching. someone who can nibble the corners.

I thought the O's made great progress this year, but they still have a little way to go. Now isn't the time to start paying for over-priced free agents or to trade away some prospects for a big hitter or pitcher - at least not in 2009-10's market. O's should probably wait until 2010-11 and see what that off-season market brings.

So for 2010, go forward with breaking in the rookies, even at the infield positions:

1B - Michael Aubrey / Luke Scott
3B - Josh Bell / Ty Wiggington

SP1: Brad Bergenson
SP2: Brian Mastuz
SP3: Jeremy Guthrie
SP4: Chris Tillman
SP5: David Hernandez / Jason Berken / Jake Arrietta

Trade Felix Pie
Keep Lou Montanez as the 5th outfielder

Hi Pete,
Quick question. Probably been answered already but going forward what role do you see for Michael Aubrey? Seems to hit the ball really well and seemed to have good instincts at first. I know he's a rookie and it takes a while for teams to develop a "book" on a player about how to pitch to him but he looked promising. Besides, every team could use more guys who wear the high socks. Thanks.

Pete,

All I want for Christmas is to move back to California (hometown) so I can be known as O's fan in Cali! Wish me luck with my application process Schmucker

Gil,

I share your frustration, but re-building is the only option in the AL East for the non-YankSox teams.

Unless MLB institutes salary caps or revenue sharing (fat chance) or returns to balanced schedules (unlikely but possible), the lesser teams of the AL East will always be outbid for the big name FAs. A good FA or two may fill a void, but the core of the team must be built from the farm system up.

MLB is doing pretty good business these days, so they have no incentive to change their business model. The Orioles will never be willing or able to maintain a $200 million payroll, so what other options are there?

Besides, Mr. Angelos tried to "buy" a winner with our FA-laden 1996-1997 teams, but they quickly fell to disrepair, leaving this current 12-season losing streak in its wake. (Of course, PA's penchant for firing competent management professionals at that time didn't help matters).

And even though Tampa Bay ended their 2009 season rather badly, they still ended up with a winning record and with 20 more wins than the Orioles.

Hell NO!

Who is going to sign in B-more???? We may pick up some 2-bit over the hill guy trying to get one more contract! Look at another last place finish! This year we might even have more losses than the Nationals! Very, very sad!

BMS please save that money and spend it on tickets to the games.As long at dave t is managing this team that post above will be my last.

Posted by: blancione | October 2

Bob, you just made me a big fan of Trembley..hope he manages the next 20 years!

BMS please save that money and spend it on tickets to the games.As long at dave t is managing this team that post above will be my last.

Posted by: blancione | October 2

Bob, you just made me a big fan of Trembley..hope he manages the next 20 years!

BMS please save that money and spend it on tickets to the games.As long at dave t is managing this team that post above will be my last.

Posted by: blancione | October 2

Bob, you just made me a big fan of Trembley..hope he manages the next 20 years!