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September 3, 2009

More pinstripe-induced paranoia

Nothing like another Yankees sweep to keep everyone focused on the dismal present. The Orioles obviously are in the same division as the Yankees, but they haven't been in the same league in quite some time, but every time they lose a game to the most expensive team in baseball, the most frustrated Orioles fans come out of the woodwork and want a pound of flesh from whoever they imagine is responsible.

Fair enough, if that's the point. Everybody knew this team could not compete six months ago, yet a lot of people seem surprised that it isn't competing now. I'll concede that I expected the O's to be slightly better than they are right now, but we're really talking about subtle shadings here. I thought the team could win 68 games, but with George Sherrill and Aubrey Huff down the highway, it's starting to look like they could lose 100.

That's not good, of course, but it's damaging more from an appearance standpoint than a rebuilding standpoint. Whether the Orioles win 62 games or 68 doesn't mean a whole lot in the greater competitive scheme of things, except in the effect that could have on the ability to sign quality free agents.

Andy MacPhail said earlier this year that he was looking for the Orioles to avoid another disastrous late-season cliff dive, both for the purpose of showing more promise for next year and also to present a better face heading into the offseason. But he obviously didn't think that was important enough to hold onto Sherrill or Huff...and he rightly doesn't think it's important enough to risk burning up Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman.

Which leaves all of us to wonder what's over the horizon. Has MacPhail secretly decided to move the whole timetable back a year? Or is he preparing to package some of his inventory to trade for the big bat that would solidify the offense? The Orioles rank fifth in the majors in batting average and hits, so they aren't that far away from being a pretty decent offensive team, but that's really a side issue. The only way the Orioles get competitive quickly is if these young pitchers bloom quickly. If the O's young rotation matures enough to be competitive next year, the team could improve significantly, but that's a lot to ask.

Frankly, the Orioles have sagged so badly, that all I can think of right now is that old saying: The first thing you need to do to get out of a hole is to stop digging.

Posted by Peter Schmuck at 6:51 PM | | Comments (21)
Categories: Just baseball
        

Comments

fire trembley

The remarkable consistency the Orioles have shown over the past 12 years is testimony to the commitment of Peter Angelos to the people of Baltimore and Oriole fans everywhere.

The O's have the day off, the last day of exhibiton football (meaningless football), and tomorrow is Friday.

For one day, "All is Good"

Great observations Pete,

Rebuilding through prospects is an inexact science, thus Macphail in some respects, has a general plan but must adapt as things move forward. The one certain given is the acquisition and development of prospects. The variables are the rate and success of the development.


Thus in some respects Macphail is making it up as he goes along. This is not a comforting situation for a team that is about to log 12 consecutive losing seasons, and appears to be headed in the wrong direction. There are no absolutes.

Thus as fans we are left to cheer only the apparent potential of many of the prospects, but concerned at the real possibility that at the end of the day we do not know when and if the team will ever win.

Today's earlier blog had many passionate and heartfelt opinions about this dilemma and I respect and agree with all of them in some ways.

We want this team to win, but we do not know if it ever will.


It is very unsettling to be sure.

O's fans. Stop blaming the Yankees and Red Sox. Our team can't compete because of Angelos.

He destroyed everything good about this team in November 1997.

Until he is out of the picture, the O's will continue to stink.

GO RAVENS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

With each agonizing loss, it is becoming more and more apparent that Mr. Trembley and his staff will be seeking employment elsewhere by the time the leaves begin to fsll. I would also bet the farm that Andy Mac will do whatever it takes to bring in a legitimate cleanup hitter, even if it means parting with some of his precious "inventory" and/or several million of Mr. Angelos's asbestos dollars.

This year, it is easy to make Trembley the scapegoat. But what happens next year if AMac brings in a new staff and some new players but the team makes it a baker's dozen as far as losing seasons go?

It's entirely possible that the MacPhail regime could come to an end in another year or so. Then what happens? I think what transpires in the next year will tell if the team has truly turned the corner or if it will continue to sink deeper into an abyss that it might not get out of for many years to come.

I've read most of the posts here lately and many of us are using this forum to vent. Personally, I find it somewhat therapuetic and have to remind myself that things can only get better. That's why it's so frustrating to see these annual end-of-the-season meltdowns of huge proportions.
I counter-act the negativity by trying to see the positives. I also try the 'compare us to other wretched teams' approach and hope that we are more like the Rays/Giants/Rockies than the Royals/Pirates/Nats. Then today I read a Sports Illustrated article about Lincecum and Cain and a light bulb flashed. Maybe Matusz and Tilman can be those guys!!!. Hey, if we had 2 dominant starters like the Giants then anyhting is possible. I mean here's a team that went from worse than us to contenders. The same team that signed Edgar Renteria, Randy Johnson, Randy Winn and even gave Russ Ortiz a shot ...a team with limited offense went from bad to good in one year.
Just shows that pitching is the key and that if we have 2 studs in the rotation then we could turn this around. Of course, a lot of other things would have to improve but there, I feel better already(that and the fact that it's an off day for the Birds and the Yanks are gone for now!).

The Orioles began the year as one of the oldest teams around, an average age of near or over 30. Now, with the release of Adam Eaton and Jamie Walker and the trades of Sherrill, Huff, Zaun and Freel, all over 30, it is one of the youngest. Mora is, of course still here, and Hendrickson in the bullpen, neither will likely be back next year. Roberts and Wigginton are both 31, Izturis is 29 and Moeller is 34. With the exception of Roberts, the core building blocks are all under 25. The key to rebuilding properly is to get younger and they have done that.

With the addition of a big time right handed hitter to provide protection and depth, there is no reason to think the offense can't remain effective for several years.

And if people like Waring, Bell, Snyder, Turner and Hughes et al actually turn out to be useful ML ball players, combined with the hoped for improvement from the youngin's on the mound plus the current core, it is not hard to see this team being a factor in the next two years.

Better days are ahead but it requires patience and that is something this town has in very short supply, and that includes football.

Os things to do in offseason

lower ticket prices 10-15%

fire coaching staff (too much a part of the losing culture) maybe give kranatz a reprieve

hire manager who holds players accountable for bad/lazy play

Inquire about power hitters who may be shopped (gonzales, fielder) and others that aren't supposed to be but have BIG contracts their current teams may want out of (Cabrera-Det) Look at 3b also

Put together package of Arrietta/Reimold or, Hernandez/Jones or Arrietta/Hernandez plus Scott or Wiggington and one of 3 minor league pitchers to get one of these sluggers.

Throw a lot of money at Chone Figgins, John Lackey and Jason Bay...depending if Reimold or Jones is gone. Maybe Vlad for a 2 year deal. ALthough I don't see Figgins leaving and Lackey was asking for Sabathia money before the season started. Bay will probably go to a better team, although with him hitting 4 or 5, the Os would be tough.

Pray that a rotation of Guthrie, Matusz, Tillman, Bergeson, and someone can make it through a full season together.

There, instant 74 win team with hope for the future.

Complain all you want about the high price Yankees. Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Andy Petitte, Phil Coke, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Melky Cabrera are HOME GROWN. Put a bunch a scrubs with them and they still beat the Orioles.

The young guns can do it up here but it depends on the adjustments they make during the off season. We will have a good rotation next year, baring injury, that will continue to improve. We need to add a power bat.... and learn to run the bases! Bring in some of our young guys into the bullpen instead of the same ole used ones.

I think we stopped digging that hole and the young guns are holding up the ladder to get out. I see the light!

Rivera, Andy Petitte, Phil Hughes,Melky Carbrera, Joba Chamberlin all HOME GROWN. Put a buch of AA players with them and the still beat the Orioles.

Great Simpsons line:

"No no, dig UP stupid." - Chief Wiggum

I'm a believer in Andy MacPhail's plan. So far, so good. We've got great young players who are on the verge of serious success.

We have been waiting 12 years for a winning team. How much longer are we supposed to be patient?? I've grown up with the O's (40+ years) and love them dearly but enough is enough. Even if PA would open his wallet, what good veteran would want to come here? We couldn't get Texiera, who supposedly grew up watching the O's. The Stankees manager passed on the manager's job here. What was once the example of what other clubs wanted to emulate, we are now the laughing stock of MLB. Unless a salary cap is put in place, there is no hope for us in this division - not when you have Boston and NY buying whoever they want. C'mon, almost half a BILLION dollars on TWO players? Talk about disparity!! And the higher ups in baseball and the small market owners are not outraged by this and don't see the unfairness in this???? Baseball has been ruined by greed. There is no love of the game, just love of the money. How disgusting!! I'm sorry for venting! :( It's just heartbreaking.

this season has been a lost cause for a long time now. i for one just hope that the nationals pass the o's in the standings and we can get the top draft pick. i can already hear selig announcing it..."with the 1st pick, the orioles select Bryce Harper"...sounds nice doesn't it?

I always find it humorous when a reliever gets a save in an 8 run game...

The save rule is what it is. It was a one run game when he came in.

Pete, Really do not think that the fans can wait another year or two if the plan is changed. Really need to let the young pitchers work more out of the bullpen than rush them. So I believe if they are going to be competitive any time soon, they need to find a power bat and two starters, then whoever is not pitched in the rotation go to the bullpen and pitch long relief. I do not think you need to sign much more than that. You read these guys post and the general attitude of the fans losing is just getting old. A lot of people do want to see success with the plan, but really baseball careers are short, Roberts is probably one of the best players in baseball now to never to play in the playoffs. If the plan is extended out, he will be near retirement before the team comes together to compete.

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: You're not going to get more than one veteran starter, if you get one. I'm waiting to hear what Andy's intentions are for the winter. Right now, we're just speculating, but I don't think they can afford to risk another season like this if they want to have any fans left.

As a 30 years+ O's fan, I feel the frustration, also. I agree with those posters who have pointed to the need for a salary cap. An article in USAToday http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2009-09-03-payroll-disparity_N.htm#payroll illustrates the problem. The Stinkees' payroll this year is almost four times the O's. There's no way they're going to win four times as many games (except head-to-head, alas), so we're technically the more efficient franchise. Small comfort when efficiency has you headed for 100 losses, though. I think the O's have improved their future outlook this year, but I still don't see us contending for much more than a .500 record in the foreseeable future, absent some major upgrades from outside the current organization.

bschief is exactly right. You can't expect the O's to compete next season without major upgrades from without the organization. I've been an O's fan myself for 30 years, and every team that excels, that makes the playoffs/World Series, is ALWAYS a mix of youth and veterans. An all rookie/kid rotation isn't going to get the job done, you need a veteran anchor or two to provide stability and relieve pressure. And we most definitely need a "big stick" in the lineup. Any team that trots out Aubrey Huff as its cleanup hitter is a team headed for the cellar (no offense to Aubrey, a good hitter, but not a guy to carry a team). As I've said ad nauseum on this blog, we need an Eddie Murray and we haven't had an Eddie Murray since...Eddie Murray. However, I'm reticent about trading young talent for veterans. I'd rather trade someone from the major league roster like Brian Roberts who is at his peak right now (as we should have traded Melvin Mora if we could a couple seasons ago). Again, no offense, I think Roberts is fantastic, but if you want something, you have to give up something to get it. Anyway, whether we win 100 or lose 100, I'm staying an Orioles fan, because isn't that what being a fan is all about? Go O's!

All we ask is that the Orioles play games that matter next year, at least until September 20, 2010.
Can't wait ANOTHER year. 2010 must be the movement year.

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About Peter Schmuck
Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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