O's: Passing on Burnett
There were a lot of angry Orioles fans when the club failed to make a legitimate run at free agent starter A.J. Burnett. The guy lives in Monkton and seemed like the rare front-line free agent who might actually want to play in Baltimore, but he did not fit into Andy MacPhail's "Grow the arms, buy the bats" philosophy.
Looking back, maybe that was a good thing. Burnett was a durability risk and the price ended up through the roof. The Yankees eventually signed him to a five-year, $82.5 million contract and are cruising toward the postseason, but it's not like he's been the cornerstone of their starting rotation.
In fact, coming into tonight's game, he had won exactly one more game than Orioles No. 1 starter Jeremy Guthrie, who took a pay cut last spring and is having a very difficult season. Don't misunderstand, Burnett has pitched much better than Guthrie, but he has struggled with his command at times -- Burnett leads the American League with 80 walks -- and was 0-4 in six August starts.
Of course, if you compared the Yankees record in Burnett's games with the Orioles overall record in Guthrie's games, it would not be close, but the guy does make $15.9 million per year more than Jeremy.






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Comments
fire trembley
Posted by: Anonymous | September 1, 2009 8:45 PM
Great observation Pete. I never wanted Burnett here anyway. Way to many injury concerns for that type of money.
Posted by: bms | September 1, 2009 8:46 PM
Pete,
Yes it does look like passing on Burnett was a good no-move. His reaction to Pie's home run was uncalled for. I wish Pie had bigger balls and had charged the mound after he hit the home run.
Speaking of home runs. Luuuuuuuuuuuke! Did that ball hit the warehouse?
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Pete's reply: I guess not, but it looked like it came close.
Posted by: Slugger | September 1, 2009 8:57 PM
That was A SHOT by LUUUUKE. Man I thought itdid have a chance to hit the warehouse, one of the few I've witnessed that I thought may have a chance.
Posted by: bms | September 1, 2009 9:01 PM
Burnett is a .500 pitcher whose bloated contracts, especially the opt-out clause with Toronto, illustrates how stupid owners are. Here's a guy that can look good for 5 games in a row and then look like Adam Eaton for the next 5 starts. What has he done to deserve 17 mill/yr?
Yet, fans here were ranting about how he should be given an open check book, keys to the city and how he'd be the 'ace/anchor/mentor all rolled into one!
Just shows that the last thing we needed was this over-paid prima donna; send him out every 5 days with the current O's lineup and he'd be lucky to have 7 wins. The only thing that surprised me with this mediocre(at best) pitcher is that he hasn't ended up on the DL. Not to wish him harm but his history speaks for itself...
Amazingly, owners keep laying out major coin to the likes of Zito, Silva, Perez and Burnett, despite their shaky performances. Do they suddenly think these guys are going to become stoppers overnight?
Let's hope the O's don't fall into these traps; I'd rather see a staff full of youngsters any day!
Posted by: TerryP | September 1, 2009 9:04 PM
Peter,
Aren't we jumping the gun on the "buy the bats" portion of the plan? As to the best of my recollection Mcphail hasn't bought anything yet. I hope that changes this winter...........
P.S. Ty Wiggington doesn't count!
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Pete's reply: Agreed.
Posted by: Larry | September 1, 2009 9:08 PM
I understand the O's aren't focused on wins now, but bringing in Sarfate in a one-run game against the best team in the majors after he hasn't pitched in how long? I don't get it.
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Pete's reply: I'm not to thrilled with this either.
Posted by: Jon | September 1, 2009 9:10 PM
This is a winnable game, except Trembley brings in the worst possible choice for a pitcher. Oh no, wait...he could have brought in Albers or Bass. Couldn't we see if Mickilio, Ray, Baez, and Johnson could protect this lead? Instead, we bring in the Norfolk contingent. Trembley's job must be secure.
Posted by: flaosfan | September 1, 2009 9:13 PM
WHere is Mikilio? He has pitched so well and now because he has more guys DT feels he has to use them all? Sarfate hasn't thrown strikes akk year. DT is a poor game manager, right Pete?
Posted by: CBSullivan | September 1, 2009 9:16 PM
Another masterful managerial performance by DT. Sarfate hasn't pitched since May and he brings him with the game on the line against the best team in baseball. To top his greatness he starts the famous bullpen musical chairs to see who will be the reliever blowing the game tonight.
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Pete's reply: In this case, I don't think he had much choice in the matter. Some of the more obvious guys are banged up.
Posted by: Slugger | September 1, 2009 9:20 PM
Despite are little disagreement over facts surrounding the Adam Jone's slumpfest (0-4 so far tonight) I'm glad he didn't hurt himself there.
As for Burnett, that Jones at bat was when I knew he was done.
Posada rested his glove on the dirt about 10 inches off the outside corner of the plate on all four pitches (says something about how teams are approaching Jones, huh Pete) and Burnett proceeded to throw all four pitches high and middle in. Not his night at all.
Win would be nice here.
Posted by: djph | September 1, 2009 9:33 PM
Hey Slugger,
The music stopped and Ray was standing there looking for a seat.
NOw the fat lady can start singing.
Posted by: djph | September 1, 2009 9:38 PM
Djph,
I hate it when I'm right. Ray was the the pitcher du jour again. To quote Yogi Berra: "It's like deja-vu all over again"
Posted by: Slugger | September 1, 2009 10:19 PM
Fire Schmuck! He has already given up on the Os ...
Posted by: JBear | September 2, 2009 6:52 AM
Overrated pitcher and I am glad the Yankees are stuck with his over paid contract.
Posted by: Leo mangini | September 2, 2009 10:00 AM
Sorry, Peter, I respectfully disagree with you and Andy MacPhail on this. Growing talent on the farm is a noble approach, but it is not an either/or situation.
I also don't subscribe to the one must have the home-grown talent first theory either. In fact, the Yankees are a prime example.
Under King George, the Yankees spent wildly and many times rather foolishly. They didn't end their World Series drought until home-grown players littered their roster. However, they had their free agents (Wetteland, Gooden, et al) in place first.
The curious sideshow to this was the Orioles were actually outspending the Yankees. Although they didn't win it all, it did mark the last occasion the Orioles were genuinely competitive.
There are no guarantees in trying to produce a winning franchise. For every Frank Robinson stolen, there is a Glenn Davis getting treatment. For every Reggie Jackson, there is a Wayne Garland.
The truth is AJ Burnett should have been worth MORE to the Orioles than the Yankees because he would most assuredly been our Number One starter, injury risk and all. And maybe, just maybe, Burnett could have been the important piece as a Number Three starter for the 2011 team, or he might have been the trade bait that year that would have fetched an important piece.
If the collective heads at The Warehouse want to stick them in the sand until a guarantee rolls around, it'll never happen. In the meantime, the Orioles' goal should be the same as New York's, Boston's, Atlanta's, St. Louis's, etc.--try to keep getting better.
Signing a significant player or two need not derail the other necessary cogs in the equation. And trying to get better has to be a yearly endeavor, not done selectively once at sit back for three years to catch one's breath and see how it turned out.
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Pete's reply: If you're willing to pay $82.5 million over five years for a No. 3 starter, you're going to end up short when there's somebody out there who could actually take you to the promised land. The Orioles did spend more than the Yankees in the late 90s, because the had developed some of their own young stars (who were still cheap) and the Yes Network had not yet exploded into a $200 million cash cow. Also, the O's were still in the new-stadium era, when everybody who had one of the new ballparks was selling out every night. If you look around the country, those other teams (Indians, Rockies, Padres, etc) are not bringing in giant crowds anymore either. The Yankees and Red Sox, meanwhile, continue to have huge revenue streams that allow them the luxury of paying $17 million per year for their No. 3 starters. Just the way it is. If the Orioles had payed $90 million for this guy, it would have been more of the same front office insanity that has kept the O's in decline for the last decade or so.
Posted by: waspman | September 2, 2009 10:27 AM
And to those who characterize Burnett as a .500 pitcher, here are some facts.
Burnett is 97-84 (.536) while primarily pitching for FLA and TOR.
His ONLY losing record since 2001 was his 0-2 record of 2003, his injury year. His W-L record is typically better than his team's. He had made at least 20 appearances per year since 2003 including leading the league in starts last year with 34.
His lifetime ERA is 3.86 and his record since 2001 is 79-63 (.556). His record in the American League is 48-34 (.585).
Sorry, guys, I would still rather he was wearing Orange and Black even if his 10-8 is an "off year" in progress.
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Pete's reply: Never said he wasn't a good pitcher, but you failed to point out that he has only once in his career -- his option year -- won more than 12 games in a season. I realize wins are not a great measure of a pitcher, but my experience tells me that winning pitchers win. You failed to point out in your analysis that he has those 97 wins in 11 SEASONS. That's less than nine wins per season. Like I said, Jeremy Guthrie has nine wins and he's having a lousy season. Oh, and Burnett has pitched more than 200 innings in a season two times and has made 30 starts in a season only twice. No, for $17 million per year, I'll make a run at John Lackey.
Posted by: waspman | September 2, 2009 10:43 AM
Sorry Waspman you must be confused about the Orioles spending historically compared to the Yankees. The last time we were competitive (97') the Orioles team payroll was $64,611,399 for the year. The Yankees payroll was $73,389,577 . The gap has growing between the two ever since. If you think the O's can spend $200 million a year on payroll your just plain delusional. Andy is going to pay for people but paying $80 million for questionable starter without the team to go with him makes no sense.
Posted by: Micah | September 2, 2009 10:44 AM
waspman -
Get your facts straight, bud. Not sure who you're referring to with your "et al", but here's some info for you:
April 5, 1995: Yankees trade Fernando Seguignol and cash to Expos for John Wetteland.
As for Doc Gooden, he posted a 6.31 ERA in 1994 with the Mets, missed 1995 with an injury and put up a 5.01 ERA with the Yanks in '96 before he was left off the postseason roster due to injury and fatigue.
And how much more should the O's have paid for A.J. Burnett? The Yanks gave Burnett a five year, $82.5M contract that will take him into his 36-year-old season. So the O's should have paid him, what, $90M over five years? $100M over five years? As Pete said, isn't that the exact same kind of contract that got this team into this position in the first place? A huge contract wasted on an oft-injured guy who will be 36 when the deal is up?
Do you seriously think it would have been a good plan to risk all the money on Burnett, who has averaged just 24 starts per season over an 11 year career?
Do you seriously think it would have been a good plan to devote 25% of the payroll to a guy who might miss a full season or two over the course of the contract? Did you really want the O's to take a risk on Burnett instead of locking up Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts?
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen are all going to win more games and put up better ERAs than A.J. Burnett in 2011, 12 and 13, the final three years of Burnett's contract. And if the O's do it right, they'll probably pay all three of those guys less than the Yanks will pay Burnett.
If I'm wrong, make sure to come back here and tell me that I'm wrong and that the O's were stupid to pass on spending big bucks on Burnett.
Oh, and one more piece of Burnett's awesomeness for you: He's got 10 wins while playing for the Yanks, who are the best team in baseball (84 wins) and have scored the most runs in the bigs (753, 5.7 runs per game). How many wins would he have with the O's, who score a full run less per game?
Posted by: b | September 2, 2009 11:59 AM
Burnett winning percentage was better than his team's winning percentage in six of the past eight years. He missed most of six years ago (0-2) and his 12-12 in '05 was slightly below FLA's 83-79.
Yes, he has ten wins on a Yankee team that has 84, but he also has nine no decisions. His W-L record is a .556 percentage which not only dwarfs anything currently on the O's staff, his 27 starts makes the O's staff totals look like beer league totals.
And I am not saying Burnett instead of Matusz, Tillman, Arieta and whoever else we are pinning our current hopes on, I am saying in addition to.
As for the '96 Yankees, some of my "et all" are Tino Martinez, Wade Boggs, Ruben Sierra, Kenny Rogers, David Cone, Jimmy Key and Steve Howe. I can't say they all came from free agency but they all came from outside the Yankee farm system. And I never said free agency was the only other method of acquiring the pieces a team needs.
I was for the trading of Tejada even though that trade doesn't look so brilliant anymore. I was for the trading Bedard, too. But somewhere along the line, the trading needs to address quality as well as quantity.
The salary sources I saw had the Orioles as the highest AL team in '96, '97 and even '98. They seem to be fluid so I won't argue the numbers above.
The team has its own network that also taps into the Nationals' money. Even as crappy as the team has been under the current ownership, especially the last 12 years, they still outdraw Tampa Bay. And I don't remember what Peter the Grate paid for the Orioles, but it is reasonably safe to say they are probably worth at least $600M today.
Placing an $80M salary cap and claiming small market is rubbish in my book.
I didn't say let's spend money like a drunken sailor. And I am not saying $200M on any roster is okay either. What I am saying is: There is money to spend, and it's not being spent. It's not even being offered (unless you count a second best offer AFTER a better offer is already on the table).
And for those who point out Burnett specifically, I will reiterate this for you once again--THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES.
Teixeira was as close to a guarantee as there is going to be and you see what his price is. A home-grown Puljos type will also eventually cost you big money. And even then, who knows if they live up that contract?
I'm fine with those who might say, "Good idea but not Burnett." If you only are going to pursue players once you have already become a good team, then the Orioles will be (or already are) the modern day version of the Philadelphia A's. We will just have to wait out the lifespan of ownership and hope the team hasn't moved a couple of times once they actually are good again.
Posted by: waspman | September 2, 2009 7:07 PM
I think you meant the Kansas City A's.
The Philly A's played in the World Series nine times and won five.
Posted by: b | September 2, 2009 7:29 PM
needed here
Posted by: Davide | October 3, 2009 9:34 AM