Good. You trade prospects when you're one or two guys away. We're not there yet.

Like someone else mentioned, McPhail didn't say anything about a pitcher. I assume, from the article, that he wouldn't be involving the top-flight prospects in a trade for a premier starting pitcher, so it's not likely that we'll be trading for someone to fill out the rotation. With that said, what do you think of the free-agent options?

Pete, you said you liked Harden, but that "he's a huge injury risk". I really think it'd be a waste, dishing out millions of dollars for someone to sit (check out your last blog - i.e. Uehara). We need someone who'll close in around 200 innings, keep his ERA around 4.50 or below and win more games than he loses. We, AT LEAST, need someone to do that. What do you think about Randy Wolf and Jarod Washburn? Do you not think, anymore, that getting one of these guys should be number one on the priority list??

Please tell me you have some insider info, and you're just not responding because you're waiting to write up a column on it. Otherwise, who, of the free agents, do you see us going after and who do you think would actually be good in Baltimore? This is a legitimate question and deserves more of a response than the guys that just bash every decision the O's make all day get from you. I don't mean to demand your opinion, but it's the coolest thing about this blog - that we get to pick your brain a bit and share ideas with everyone.

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Pete's reply: Sorry, went to bed early and had to write a column today. I understand what you're saying, but I think they've got guys who can win 13 games. I want somebody who has a chance to win 19. Harden has that kind of talent, but I agree with you that it's probably too much to spend on the possibility he ends up making 17 starts.

Steve D; I am with you.

christian; I certainly understand the desire for a pitcher with the qualities you list, but there is a problem if we go out and get such a guy.

I have to figure that, barring a meltdown by someone next spring training or injuries, Guthrie, Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman look to be in 4 of the 5 starting spots. Signing or trading for the guy you are talking about means that there is no spot for Arrieta who is showing signs of being ready, to say nothing of Berken, Hernandez etc.

Would it not be nice if these guys turn into the guy you are looking for, or better. It would be a real sweet cheap deal if it worked out and would free up money for the bats we would like to see at first and third.

Chris bounced back nicely from the 3 run HR by ARod. Given the events of the night with the rain delays and the atmosphere with Jeter breaking the record, I thought he pitched very well. Kudos to Hendrickson for saving the BP for the rest of the weekend. Andy wanted him as a reliever and he has been excellent as a reliever.

Pete, it's early, but I don't see Luke as a 1B. He doesn't have the athleticism nor the footwork. Could he get better? I am sure, but do the O's want to invest in a guy that's a long shot at best, to be a serviceable 1B? I hope not. Watching the way Aubrey played 1B, I still don't get why he isn't playing 1B till the season ends? I know his minor league #s, don't say power hitter, but he seems to have a good idea of what he wants to do at the plate so I don't see the harm.

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Pete's reply: Well, he played today. I don't see Luke as the everyday 1B either, but the O's want to know what they can do with him. The extra position experience also could enhance his trade value. I think to compete in the AL East, you have to have a probable 100 RBI guy at first and/or DH.

I read the column...Andy is spinning a little too much for home audiences...there is no home run bat available out there unless he parts with at least one of the top pitching prospects.
I think they should just hold their dollars,get a new manager, let the pitchers develop further, see if Snyder or Bell develop, draft well and wait for the offseason of 2010 to make a major buy.
No matter what minor pieces they may buy in the offseason...a Nick Johnson or an Adrian Beltre or even John Lackey (no way he is coming to loserville)...2010 is going to be dead last once again...maybe the team record improves a bit from this year, the young pitchers develop a bit and the team with major purchases in 2010 offseason could maybe be competitive by 2011.
But for Macphail's plan to work it means Matusz and Tillman both have to become true top of the rotation aces...not middle of the road, OK major leaguers, but aces. If not, it is back to the drawing board and likely to be another GM at that point.

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Pete's reply: Where they finish will depend mostly on the rotation. I actually think Nick Johnson is a real possibility, but he's not going to lead you to the World Series.

how great is it that Mark Hndrickson got his first career save last night... hahahaha!

Good news. I would rather watch lots of young talent develop than add one good bat.

I'm also sceptical about NL hitters. The O's were burned badly by the trade of our young talent (Schilling, Finley and Harnisch) for a proven NL hitter, Davis, a few years ago. I haven't recovered from that disaster yet. Give me another decade or two before I'm ready for another such trade.

Get ready for more of the same in 2010. They will just get another 3rd tier type player like wigginton, another fill in. At least andy is letting all of you know what the outcome of next year is going to be.Oh with one exception the manager i will hold to my word if andy brings back dave t my brother and myself will not renew our families 10 season tickets ever again after having tickets for more then 20 years.

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Pete's reply: Bob, I don't know about any of that, but I do know that you need eight straight losses to win that bet you made.

Bob L. - stay home...we don't want you and your constant whining at Camben Yards.

Without question, Lackey is the guy we want. He would make for a great #1 starter as an addition to the rotation.

And kudos to Mac for hanging on to his top prospects. Trading much of our future rotation would be a huge mistake.

George,

The disaster from which you say you haven''t recovered was more than just a few years ago, it was 18 years ago.

At the time, there was no reason to believe Davis wouldn't thrive in the AL. His problem was injuries, always a risk when dealing with human ball players.
Yea, the Orioles gave up a ton of talent, but that is a risk you sometimes need to take.

A more recent example of a NL hitter not living up to expectations is Matt Holliday. He went from a hitter's paradise in Colorado to a hitter's graveyard in Oakland, still put up decent numbers, 278/378/454 with an OPS+ of 125, but because they didn't match what he did in Coors Field, he was deemed a failure and traded. And lo and behold, with StL., he's back to his Rockie's production. Does this mean he is only good against NL pitching? Who knows? Put him in Fenway or OPACY or Texas, and he might thrive.

I agree that it's a crapshoot when dealing youngsters for proven veterans, but sometimes it is necessary risk. I don't believe the Orioles are close enough to make it a good risk, maybe one more year of seasoning for the kids, but after that, if a big bat becomes available, maybe you take that chance.

TNTOriole, Blancione,

I love you guys but consider this: What both of you just reflected is the resignation that the warehouse wants fans to accepts while Macphail "works the plan". Macphail has just floated a trial balloon by indicating that the Orioles won't likely trade top prospects but he left open the prosepct that the team may be ready to spend some money on a combination of trades and/or free agents.

The fans need to speak loudly in one voice that unless we draw a line in the sand we are giving the organization a free hand to drag out the rebuilding plan to infinity.

Not one of us should allow the organization to think that we are prepared to accept any more losing on the hope that one day we may win.

The team has plenty of money to spend and Macphail is a smart guy. The Orioles need to play to win in 2010 and say so.

Many of you are managers and businessmen who have taken over failing projects
and departments and were asked to produce immediate results. How many of you were given a 5 year plan to succeed? Next year will be year #4 for Macphail and he needs to start feeling the heat from the fans now.

I say plan to win in 2010. Why not?

One of the nice things about living in the mountains of NC is that we get to watch some of the O's prospects in the various levels of the minors. At one such game we sat next to a scout wearing a monstrous championship ring. As we chatted about all the players he scouted who are now stars he assured us that the O's are on the right track and our prospects are going to be legit. I hope he's as perceptive about our guys as he was about his, and yes he was also very interseted in Hobgood.

Ben,

You are correct, Lackey is the guy, fact is he will get more than AJ in contract offers. I guess we will see how serious the Orioles will be.

The O's need a spark in 2010. Someone needs to be brought in to get these guys hoppin'. Whether it is a new manager or veteran player, something to get these guys playing with a winning mentality.

Barring injuries, the young guys should be able to string together 12-14 wins, Guthrie needs to work out his kinks, and Hernandez needs to be shifted to a set up, long relief role, he is way too inefficient to start, but a good swing and miss guy.

They are going to need to take a chance on a injury prone starter, it is an unfortunate cost of doing business. Harden, Penny, or someone on a 2 year deal is not going to Albert Belle us for years to come. Lackey will not sign here. Probably need to stop hoping for him, then complaining when he goes to the Sox/Yankees.

I'm not a big fan of trading any of our prospects. Nor am I really fired up about throwing buckets of money at one front-line starter or "big bat". Like one of the earlier posters said, we're not just one player away from playoff contention or a World Series berth. For that matter, if we got one of each (pitcher and a "bat"), we still wouldn't be there.

Follow the model set by Oakland and Minnesota (and when you think about it, look at how Atlanta stayed in contention for 13-15 straight years). Build a deep minor league pipeline, keep the kids coming. Sign the good ones to long term extensions early on (see Markakis), let the ones who want to chase the mega bucks go drain the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels dry. Trade mid & lower level prospects to fill "needs" at mid season, depending on where you are in the standings. Everyone once in a while, make an impact trade (like Atlanta getting McGriff a number of years back, lots of other similar examples).

Throwing money at one or two players to come here and "make the difference" is risky at best, and probably foolish at worst. Don't see any "cornerstone" players, like a Palmer or F Robinson, in this year's free agent crop. And, if they were, they're not coming here anyway until we build this thing up and show that we're competitive.

Andy shouldn't need to trade any of the Orioles propects (the Orioles best commodities). The next phase of the plan should be to unload the unproductive veterans (Scott/Mora/Albars/Wigginton(?) and see if Josh Bell and/or Waring and/or Snydor are major league ready next spring. Andy needs to buy (free agent) a power/high average hitting 1b/3b/dh kind of guy and maybe a relief pitcher or two. The Orioles biggest concern is starting pitching - the youth - Matusz, Tillman, Bergusen which I feel more and more confident about with each start. Guthrie and maybe a free agent to complete the rotation.

I rotation of Matusz, Tillman, Bergusen, Guthrie, and anybody for number five for a full season will blow away the rotation of Guthrie, Kojo, Simon, Hendrickson, and Eaton any day.

Ok, let's start from the top...tony larussa, dave duncan, john lackey, matt holiday, and shift Riemold to 1b...bring a winning attitude to this clubhouse and we're set.

In continuation of my earlier post:

Build an atmosphere here like we had 25-30 years ago. That is, that the Orioles are a first class organization, we do things "the right way". There is a culture in the clubhouse of "we", not "me". The team does not live and die on the fortunes of one player, but everyone chips in and contributes (think late 70's/early 80's O's). It's not the "Bronx Zoo", or the latest episode of "Manny being Manny".

That mindset starts at the lowest levels of the minors, and carries all the way up to the bigs. When bringing in players via free agency or trade, target those with the same mindset / work ethic. Don't bring a "star" in just because they are a "star" (see Ramirez, Manny).

I had mentioned Minnesota and Oakland, but probably the best model for this out there today is St. Louis. Never hear a lot of controversy out of them, they just win and are in contention and in the playoffs year in and year out. That's where we need to be, and hopefully that's where McPhail is taking us. But it's not happening next year, and maybe even not the year after that. The key is steady progress. Maybe .500 or close to it next year, and a run at the wild card in 2011. Then by 2012, be the team to beat.

Kind of funny how different people viewing the same event have completely different opinions of it.
Regarding Jordan -
"This wasn’t a Hall of Fame induction speech, but a bully tripping nerds with lunch trays in the school cafeteria. He had a responsibility to his standing in history, to players past and present, and he let everyone down. This was a night to leave behind the petty grievances and past slights – real and imagined. This was a night to be gracious, to be generous with praise and credit."

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-jordanhall091209&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

One last comment:

For the "let's go for broke, demand that we win next year" crowd -- you have to remember where we've come from. This team has frankly been a hot mess for close to a decade, and has been generally mismanaged for close to a quarter century. The few blips of success since our last World Series win in 1983 were:

1989: "Why Not" O's: Killed off by the bonehead Davis trade

96-97: Playoff appearances with a veteran team, Angelos got lucky in assembling a bunch of veteran spare parts from other winning teams of the era. Flushed it all down the toilet by getting rid of the last real field manager (D. Johnson) that we had and chasing off P. Gillick because "I know better than the 'baseball people'.

And the whole while, the minor league system went to seed.

You don't recover from that kind of mismanagement and incompetence in 1, 3, or I would go so far to say, 5 years. We are starting to see the fruits now of what McPhail has been doing in the minors for the past few years. The message now needs to be "This year was rock bottom, it's only up from here." Demand steady progress every year from here on out. No more 65-70 win seasons. No more epic collapses post-All Star break. Every year from now, we win 10 more games per year, until we get in the 90+ range consistently.

Too bad. I think an aggressive approach would land Gonzalez from the Padres, and he's worth it, since no comparable corner bat is out there. Having prospects is great, and in the Orioles' financial situation they have to bank on them all developing at once, but you must remember that even the most promising prospects are a long shot.

I would trade anyone except Matusz of the top pitchers for a guy who is young and proven like Gonzalez. I mean, you are HOPING that your prospects turn out to be as good as Gonzalez, so trading a few maybes for a definitely sometimes is the right call. I think it is here. I fear that McPhail is smart, but too cautious, and too prone to celebrating minor victories in player development. Sad as it is to say, Hall-of-Fame caliber players (not saying Gonzalez is there, but...) are necessary to win consistently, so even developing solid players is not going to get you a pennant.

Orsulakfan: HOF-caliber talent can be developed by any team. Once upon a time, we cranked out guys like Brooks, Palmer, Murray and Ripken, and a whole host of "next tier" players, like McNally, Powell, Baylor, Flanagan, D. Martinez, Mussina, etc.

We can do that again, and hopefully, are on the track to doing so. I hope that one day we can add the names Tillman, Matusz, Wieters, Reimold, and Markakis to either the HOF or "next tier" list.

"even developing solid players is not going to get you a pennant"? Um, let's see, the Yankees built a dynasty around Jeter, B. Williams, Posada, and M. Rivera. Red Sox keep bringing up guys like Pedroia and Ellsbury. Build the foundation from within, go get the spare parts. But, don't mortgage the farm to build a team around one guy. Maybe one day we'll sit back and say "we should have got that Gonzalez guy", but right now, I'm not buying it.

Orsulak,

The Padres have finally turned the corner themselves, for the last 6 weeks they've been playing better than .500 ball. It would be a PR nightmare for the Pad's to trade Gonzalez, I would be surprised if he's traded.

The Padre's have unloaded 18 million in payroll, they have room to re-sign him now.

Grand Salami BaBy!!!!!

ken,

The remark about "a few years ago" was supposed to be facetious. Obviously the time had to be about the length of Schilling's long career.

I agree with you about waiting to see more of the young guys, especially the pitchers, develop before considering a trade . When and if a trade is made for an outstanding clean-up hitter, I hope it's a proven AL slugger.

I have hope that Bell may become a very good bat, perhaps next year. That's another reason for my reluctance to trade away pitching. As the old baseball adage says, you can't have too much pitching.

Spirit of 1966;

Very well said, especially the part about building a deep minor league pipeline. Year in and year out, we need a conveyor belt of good young pitchers. That is how a middle market team like the Os are going to compete.

Pete,

I'm one that NEVER uses the word NEVER as it seems to come back and bite most people. AM has done a nice job of bringing in and developing talent, but I would hate to see him fall in the trap of many of his predecessors and overvalue our prospects. Candidly, Bergesen, Matusz and Reimhold have thus far demostrated reasonable success of the home grown talent. As I've written many times, it will take until at least 2011 for the young arms to mature and learn how to pitch at this level. Not sure what to think about trading a package of Snyder, Arieta and ??? for Gonzales, we need a 4, 5 of the order hitter as well as corner infielders and none are immediately available from our system! The next 7-8 month will tell you if the Orioles are serious or just stringing us along for at least another season.

So, McPhail said that he won't trade top prospects, he didn't say he wouldn't trade prospects. With that being said, who is a top prospect versus prospect? I would guess anyone on that list to be pitchers.

The O's have a logjam in the outfield with Riemold Jones Markakis Pie Fiorentino & Montonez, there isn't room for all of them to play. 4 of the 6 being untouchable? The O's also have a possible logjam of infielders coming up through the minors, due any of these players warrent being put on the untouchable list?

It's going to be interesting to see the O's playing in the Arizona Fall League.

The O's need a big bat. The Padre's have a young kid named Kyle Blancs, I think he will be a future big bat in the Majors. I wish the O's could find a way for Blanc's to come to Baltimore.

Markakis AGAIN fails to get a man in from 3rd with less than 2 out. No way this guy is a dependable 3-4-5 hitter. Just a nice .290 - .300 #2 or #6

I'm not sure why AM would make a statement like he did unless he's targeting the likes of Garret Atkins and Randy Wolf, players that will fill a role and be gone in a year. But if he is serious about upgrading the roster with a "front of the rotation" starter and a legit power hitter, it'll cost him. Either in a trade where he'll have "to give to get" or a FA contract that he will regret down the road.

And if he sticks to this stance, it'll be another year before we become legit contenders. The cavalry will carry us only so far in their first full year in the bigs. Like most of us, I'm tired of waiting another year, though it seems inevitable.

With the likes of Arrieta, Britton, Spoone (if he gets healthy), Erbe and hopefully Hobgood, there is an arm or 2 to spare (even Hernandez and Berken) for the right player. Snyder is just superfluous if you get the likes of Gonzales so he's expendable in any deal for a bat. I'm assuming that they will not trade for a 3rd baseman with Bell almost ready. Besides, how many FA pitchers will sign here to face the AL East when they can go to the NL? So it almost has to be a trade to get that quality pitcher.

We offer Bergeson, Reimold, and Hernandez for Gonzalez. Try to hold onto Tillman and Matusz.

That's the start of a proposal...of course, MacFail doesn't have half the brain to consider this.

Trade away half our prospects for a big bat? Bergeson and Reimold stay, end of discussion.

I agree with not trading the top core prospects. I also would not pay big dollars for a starting pitcher (like Lackey.) If a veteran starter is sought, look for someone like Sutcliffe in 1992 - a guy who pitches a lot of innings, can win 14 games or so (and the team can some more of the starts he leaves with the game tied, or down a run or two.) The Orioles can't afford to pay Sabathia money to pitchers and pay for a strong offense at the same time, like the Yankees and Red Sox can. The Yankees have baseball's best record, despite ranking fifth in ERA, because they have baseball's best offense, helped in no small measure by baseball's highest tam OBP (more runners means more scoring chances, and more pressure on opposing pitchers). A starting pitcher can only help win every fifth day - a good average, good to great power, high OBP guy (Dunn, Abreu, Jeter, Howard, et al, can help every day.)

Speaking of offense, the Orioles can improve theirs by emulating the Yankees and Red Sox. Their hitters, save for a few exceptions, MUST change their approach at the plate from aggressive to patient and selective, use the whole field, and draw walks by not getting themselves out on balls so often (Pie has done it - Jones, Scott, and Wigginton, to name two, haven't.) Plate discipline should be the mantra at very level, from ML to the lowest minor league team, as it is in the Yankee and Red Sox organizations. We should have different players at 1B and 3B to hopefully improve the weak offense we got from those positions this season. Pitchers pitch much more relaxed with big leads, and with an offense they're confident can come from behind if needed. The Orioles have rarely had such an offense the past 12 seasons, including this season (11th in league in runs entering last night.)

Great pitching job by Matusz in the 7th. There's your #1. And short of 1 bad pitch, Tillman looked like a 1A last night.
Both vs. a big Yankee line-up and in Yankee Stadium. Very impressive.

Yes, but we don't know who Andy believes is one of those "core" prospects. We can all assume he means Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Weiters.

But what about guys like Reimold and Bergeson? To me either one is expendable, and have the most value right now. I'm not convinced that Bergeson's success this year is anything particularly special -- his story is not exactly a new one. Pitchers have good 1/2-3/4 seasons out of the minors *all the time* until the hitters catch up. If you read evaluations of Bergeson from sources other than Oriole fans, there is a much more sobering view of him developing into no more than a #4 or #5 guy. He may have been our "ace" for few months, but he really doesn't project into that role, at all. Andy's no fool: he may be thinking the same thing.

As for Reimold, I like him. He seems like a classic "Oriole". But that alone shouldn't make him untouchable. He projects to be an average outfielder with 15-20 HR potential -- not exactly a rarity, folks. Pie can do that. Scott has already proven he can do it (although Nolan is better defensively, it's not like Scott is as bad as Manny out there). Montanez can probably fill that role nicely too. There are foolish teams out there who would love to get Reimold, and overpay for him. I say let Andy fleece one of them, and include Reimold as part of that deal.

If Reimold and Bergeson bring a big ole middle of the order bat that will be around for the next 5-8 years cranking out 35 HRs and 120 RBIs, then I'll drive them both the airport.

i would much rather trade arrieta than bergesen. he was by far their most consistent pitcher until he got hurt and he reminds me of brandon webb. i also really like reimold. he has good power(better than 15-20 homer potential) and he has great plate discipline to go along with a good glove. i would love to see the o's get fielder or gonzalez, but not at the cost of both of these guys. plus, does anyone think they'd be able to sign whoever they get to a long term deal? baltimore isn't exactly the most attractive place to play since theyr in the toughest division

MacPhail has announced that he will acquire Frank Robinson, but he won't trade Milt Papas. Which raises two questions:

1) Does he think Orioles fans are all stupid? Judging by some responses to his pronouncements, he is not greatly underestimating us.

2) If you accept the unlikely proposition that he can sign an impact hitter without giving up anything of value, that raises another question - "What has he been waiting for?"

Hey, Sam, who's going to drive in the runs so we don't lose,3-1 ballgames every night?

You have to give up quality to get it.

If Fielder is on the trade block, I'd improve my initial offer.

Every contending team has a slugger to go along with quality pitching and defense.

Hey Ferg,

Reimold has 15 homers in 344 at-bats which projects to 25-30 homers in a full-season. There is nothing to indicate he is having a fluke season and he actually is playing hard through a nagging injury. His intangibles are off the chart and if he stays healthy he could have a 10+ year career in Baltimore. It always sounds good to parlay a good player into something better but most parlays never pay off (or haven't you been to Vegas lately).

Yes, we can trade Reimold to teams who want cheap power production for a Fielder or Gonzalez who might produce 10 more homers and cost 10-20 million more per season. Doesn't sound worth it to me.

Also it doesn't matter if Bergesen is the #1 or #4 starter if he continues to eat up innings. With his efficient style he can easily be a 200+ inning pitcher. Do you know how much 200+ inning pitchers cost on the open market?

So let's trade all the young guys because they might be flashes in the pan for mercenaries like Mark Teixera.

No Thanks.

Hey Hal....Put the pipe down...

That's fine, Mike, I'll be happy to put it down.

Go on drinking the orange Kool Aid with these other saps who think the O's can compete without a middle-of-the order slugger.......

Reimold can be replaced and for a 'Big Gun' like Gonzalez or Prince Fielder, Nolan Reimold won't be missed AT ALL.