oh schmuckalovitz..questioning trembley? when are you going to realize that trembley doesn't have the best baseball instincts. nice guy, speaks well, really doesn't manage too well. just wonder who will be the new manager next year? sorry about your pooch. glad to hear you're out of the cast. may the schmuck be with you.

Pete,
There has been alot to question with the moves of Trembley. You happened to pick the wrong one.
Chad Moeller is not a pitcher.
The chances of scoring 1 run in the scenario you lay out is as follows...

average number of runs scored with a man on 2nd and no outs 1.189
number of runs scored with a man on 3rd and 1 out .983

You see, statistically, it makes no sense to bunt the guy to third, especially at home.....
these are some of the things that Earl Weaver knew so well, which is why he rarely bunted....because it's statistically stupid....
unless you have a Daniel Cabrera at the plate

Please, the last thing this team needs is more bunting in the 6th inning of a tie ball game

Yup, you are right on here. Between that and continuing to let Guthrie go out and give up run after run, Trembley doesn't look very smart. I'm starting to believe the "fire Trembley" posters may be correct.

Sorry, Mr. Frederick, you are wrong. The game was not tied at that point; the O's were down by one run and they had a "gimme" run on second to tie it up. Any other manager in baseball, with a .200 hitter at the plate, bunts the runner over to 3rd and then the game gets tied by the next batter.

one more thing Pete,
Why in the world would you give them an out when you have just scored 2 runs in each of the previous 3 innings?
It's not like we are up against Bob Gibson.

You are a very knowledgable baseball guy...I am surprised at your thinking here...which is why it's such a great game I suppose.

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Pete's reply: I'm not a big bunt guy, but you've got your 8 and 9 hitters coming up, which wasn't factored into your equation. I wouldn't bunt with Nick Markakis, but I would with Moeller.

That's the B-Rob I remember and love. Picking his spot, stealing himself into better scoring position at the perfect time and then the sac fly.

Great instinctive and fundamental baseball. With all the second-guessing and criticism lately, recognition is due. Great job, Roberts and AJ.

Hey Bill (not Frederick)
You are wrong statistically if not in your own mind
you state
"then the game gets tied by the next hitter"
oh really?....you are certain that Andino would launch a fly ball or not strike out or whatever....they don't give you home plate because you give them an out ....it's not played that way
and you really want to play for a tie in the 6th inning at home when your team has been really hitting well lately?
does not compute....

Wow! I can't remember the last time the O's tried to steal a base in a late-game important situation, even with Roberts on the bases. Take's me back to my youth watching Billy Ball in Oakland. Let's finish it Orioles!

give it up Bill Frederick

two bunts in a row gets the job done - the whole point being that not only is it 8 and 9 coming to the plate, but bench players to boot

I don't like the bunt either but occasionally it makes sense

once warrior....if you want me to give up logic..sorry
facts are it's more likely to score a run with a man on second with no outs then a man on third with 1 out
that is a fact... if you don't like the facts that's fine... i think it's better to go with the higher probabilities.

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Pete's reply: Bill, you know I respect your opinion, but you're totally oversimplifying the situation and using a blanket stat that doesn't factor in the potential of the specific hitters. If that made sense, you'd never pinch hit in any situation, for instance, because the average outcome of each particular place in the lineup would be more important than the relative skill of the hitters involved.

Pete,

Back to fundamentals, I've been highly disapointed all year in their inability (even the back end of the order) to lay down a bunt when needed. Good teams like the Angels get it done!

Yeah Bill Fredrick.
Totally wrong.
As Pete mentioned more formally your stats include numbers when Pujols, Fielder, Texiera, etc. etc. are up with a guy on second and no outs.
There numbers will certainly change a bit when you consider that you've got Moeller and Andino coming up.
Not that hard to grasp really.

Is Chad Moeller any good at bunting? That'd be an important question I'd ask before deciding. It's also a matter of whether you think you can start a rally. Bunting and spotting them an out, limits a rally if you are able to eventually turn the lineup over.

It's not too long ago where he was getting ripped for always playing small ball, but this is the 2nd time he's been questioned lately about not bunting. I don't think this is a team that can put down a reliable bunt in most cases. I definitely think that's an issue (hitting coach issue). If I'm not certain about a bunt as the manager though, then sometimes the hand is forced a little.

We're also somehow 2nd behind the Angels in average with RISP. I'm not quite sure how that's happened, but it's something else to have in mind.

If I think he can get it down, I do the bunt almost every time. Sometimes though you put trust in a guy and maybe you blow one wide open. There are 27 outs in a game, so playing a hunch on one of them doesn't really get me too much. Although to be honest, I'd be so distraught losing this much, that I'd be trying anything I could since nothing else has really worked. Then again, I'd be drinking before games a la Tom Hanks in League of Their Own by now.

lt all goes back to starting pitching! lf the 'zeros' had a few pitchers who could go 8 or 9 innings they wouldn't need to carry 13 picthers and could put a few bats on the bench who could get the clutch hits! l'm tired of hearing of all the pitching talent in this organisation but as soon as the get to the majors they turn to $hi! !!

Bill, I could not agree more with you on the bunting issue. You'll never talk anyone on this blog out of bunting. They love it. Keep trotting out the facts.
How about this everyone? Perhaps if you are hell bent on moving the guy over, let the guy at the plate take a shot or two at hitting the ball to the right side. Maybe he gets one through. Who knows? Stranger things have happened.Playing for one run in the sixth with that bullpen and almost winning the game might have been one of them...
Yes, Earl's problem with the stats was applying the same logic to everyone. He should have never bunted wit the 3-4-5 man(he never did) but bunted a lot with the bottom of the order(he never did). You people are crazy for trying to make a valid argument for bunting in the sixth iniing.