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August 18, 2009

Dancing with myself

It's time for another edition of Schmuck's Shameless Self-Promotional Plugs, so pay close attention or you might miss an opportunity to blast me in the posting section or call me out tonight on the radio show.

If you want to read my column evaluating the Aubrey Huff deal before tomorrow's print edition, you can do that right here.

If you want to hear me make fun of Brett Favre and talk about the Ravens and the rest of the sports news of the day, tune in to WBAL (1090 AM) at six for Sportsline. If you're not in signal range, go to WBAL.com and click on the "Listen Live" icon. Lots of people do and call in from all over the country to tell me what an idiot I am.

Posted by Peter Schmuck at 4:40 PM | | Comments (28)
Categories: Schmuck being Schmuck
        

Comments

Pete, I'm no longer sure we are even watching the same team. It's pretty obvious to most that moving away from Huff and Mora either during or at the end of this season were major "TO DO" list items for a rebuilding team that needs to shed unproductive players. Both qualify under that category. I'd much rather see any of Snyder, Aubrey or Hughes at 1B for the rest of this and next season than Huff. Kudos to MacPhail for actually getting some quality in exchange for a rent-a-player in decline.

I'll say it again, this was a trade made several months too late. If they had traded Huff earlier in the year, when his stock was up, they would have received much more than a single A pitcher likely to spend the rest of his career in Bowie.

Pete, the premise of your column is that Huff is the kind of legitimate power bat the O's need at first base. The problem with this premise is that Aubrey hasn't been playing like a legitimate power guy this year.

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Pete's reply: No, he hasn't, but he still was headed for 90-100 RBI. That production, even though it has declined since last year, still has to be replaced.

Hey Pete. I liked your suggestion of bring in a guy like Adrian Gonzalez. I odn't care if we have to give up a couple of young arms, we aren't going to compete without a big bat in the middle of the lineup and AGone certainly seems like a good fit. He might hit 35 HR in our bandbox as he doesn't seem to have trouble hitting them out at Petco.
I guess it all depends how much MacPhail is willing to give up. It may mean surrending a stud like Tillman and maybe Guthrie and another player or 2 but why not? Supposedly, we have this stockpile of arms and it may be time to pull the trigger. We can't be gun shy and afraid that there's another Glenn Davis fiasco; maybe the pitchers we trade blow their arms out too-who knows?
All I know is that we can't go into '10 without another big bat in the middle of the lineup and with a guy like Scott at 1st. In all fairness, he's a role/platoon player and sticking him at a new position weakens us defensively as well.
So do you think there's much chance of that trade happening and if so, are we looking at a package like Tillman, Guthrie, Scott and maybe a mid-level minor league arm or 2?


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Pete's reply: I suppose Tillman and Guthrie would be a start, if the Padres think they can fix Guthrie. But it would take at least one more really good prospect, which probably would discourage Andy from going in that direction.

The stockpiling of 1B candidates at the minor league level is interesting. They probably could shift Mike Constanza over there while they're at it. Seems like everyone is getting a look. Too bad the club can't find some guy like Garrett Jones (Pirates), a relatively young power hitter who was buried in the minors behind a league MVP (Morneau). Perhaps that's what Andy M thinks he has in the two guys he obtained in recent trades. Maybe St Louis (Pujols) or Philly (Howard) have someone that is just not quite good enough to replace the future Hall member they currently have playing the position.

I would concerned about giving up to much for Adrian Gonzalez for anyone for that matter especially pitching.
It seems some folks are operating under the assumption that we can afford to give up some of our young arms, but without insurance of what we have in the farm system to replace anyone we ould potentially trade.
Granted we need a power hitter, but I rather let a year pass and see what free agency provides.
Another thing speaking to the other blogs of the last 24 hours and the response to Aubrey Huff being traded.
I didn't realize we had sop many major league scouts reading and commenting. According to these obviously intelligent folks we should have gotten the Tiger number 1 prospect for a guy who was hitting .254 and 13 homeruns and seemed to careless whether we won or loss and was a top notch presence in the club house. Oh and these same folks have determined that the kid we got was a waste along with the guys we got for Sherill that top notch closer that teams were beating down our door to get. Maybe instead of trying to scouts those folks should be sports agents.
Oh as for Aubrey "Puff" I know the reason why he was so wonderful,he was great last year.
Mmmmm ever hear of career year!!!!

If you people are going to start calling him AGone I hope Gonzalez never comes to Baltimore.
Please stop with the stupid nick names.

"Until that happens, I think we're going to miss him" This is the problem with a football guy covering baseball. Pete let me explain to you Huff's value. Let's measure it using VORP (Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances) Huffs VORP this season at age 32 is -6.4. That is #24 out of 24 1B with at least 350 plate appearances. Simply put he was the least productive everyday 1b in the game. That does not even take into account his horrid defense. The fact we even got something in return AND didn’t have to pick up his salary is a miracle. To say we are going to miss him between the lines is the most inaccurate statement you could make.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=519083

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Pete's reply: Thanks for the lecture. I guess I wasted thosed 30 years actually going to 4,000 baseball games when I could have just stayed in my basement and evaluated everybody with a calculator.

Contrary to popular demand this years oriole team has really complicated things. Regardless of what anybody say's about the expectations of this team before the year started you can bet your bottom dollar that the results are way below even what andy expected. Make no mistake as you mentioned in your article that this will also have repercussions for next years team as well. Andy will never spend money for any free agent unless he thinks they will help us be competitive.next year's team can't be competetive with the current projected makeup.There is no way that they can field a team that will even play 500 ball.This plan has certainly been derailed because of this year's drastic performance. If you are honest Matt weiters powers production has been a bit disappointing regardless of what anybody say's. Adam jone has been hitting below 250 since june 1st something nobody mentions. With all that said huff despite having a off year still will be close to 100 rbi's so please tell me how are you going to replace that. Nick will always be Nick, Brian will be a year older.Next year will be another very long and frustrating year and the fans will still be wishing and hoping for something that can't and won't happen.

I guess there is nothing going on in sports to blog about so you have to link to your own story? Is that how the Sun is paying you now? Or are you on too many meds?

Huff's RBI's are due to the fact he was batting behind guys who have been on base a lot: Roberts (.353), Markakis (.357), Jones (.340) and sometimes Reimold (.361). Not to mention all can run.

Pretty much find any .270 hitter with 20 HR capability and he would have 100+ RBIs batting 4th behind those guys. And Camden Yards is hardly a pitchers ball park.

Scott, Reimold or some FA that you can pick up with the $8M+ that Huff was getting will get you similar RBIs in the worst case.

Your argument is as useful as someone claiming a pitcher had a good year based on the number of wins he had w/o seeing how much run support he was getting.


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Pete's reply: Hey Rich. I've written a column today and done a radio show along with writing a few blog entries, reading 160 posts and trying to answer some of them...and, yes, I linked the column and YES, that's exactly what the Sun is paying me for. Oh, and one other thing. take a hike and if you don't come back, I won't mind.

Macphail better start worrying about who is going to play shortstop in 2011. First base will be an easier position to fill as will third.

If the Orioles had come out of the gate in after the All Star break winning, Macphail would have worried more about the fan's interest for the rest of the year and next. Once it was abundantly clear that the annual collapse was underway, he figured how could things get any worse, so he decided to move up the timetable to find young players to fill key spots. And I'm OK with that.

Gonzalez is not leaving SanDiego & McPhail is never going to unload Guthrie, Tillman & another arm.Gonzalez grew up in SanDiego & is the 2nd. most revered person in that organization behind Tony Gwynn. He's totally immeresed in that community & what would we have gained if we now had a bat but an even crapier pitching staff than we already roll out on a dailey basis?
My hunch...Andy is going to pull a Ponson. Trade him for an arm & resign over the winter.

Pete,

I agree with your story particularly your wondering what AM has in mind for 2010. I think the answer is obvious. Within the past month, AM has given away the closer and clean-up hitter for not much of anything in return. AM has now set the stage for what he does best - LOWER EXPECTATIONS.

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Pete's reply: It's not like you're obsessed with this. I understand that you think the team would be better if Andy just told everybody it would be, but I don't see the logic. My mom used to tell me I should get A's in school, but I still got C's. Expectations matter only if the team is capable of fulfilling them. This team is not...at least not yet.

What, nobody calls in to tell you you're a Schmuck?


..............................................................................................Pete's reply: No, my listeners are way too polite to do that. They draw the line at idiot.

Pete,
I don't see where moving Luke Scott to first is a big downgrade. I think what you are really saying is the O's need an upgrade over huff to plug into the lineup either at 3rd or 1st. Not a replacement but an upgrade! I think we need to hold the front office's feet to the fire on this point. We don't have a dominant hitting prospect so we have to go get one via trade or the free agent market. If we don't this team will not compete and I'm afraid Angelos is still playing us along. I hope they get someone and give us real hope.(We'll also need a dependable starter and reliever)


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Pete's reply: Whether he's a downgrade or not, he's a guy who was already in the lineup, so the offensive comparison then has to be with the DH.

Pete,

What's stopping the Birds from resigning Huff in the offseason? It was a viable option 2 days ago,why wouldn't it be now?


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Pete's reply: It might be, but I hope they try to do better and come up with somebody younger who can deliver more consistent production. When I said the Orioles are going to miss him, that's only in comparison with what they're going to send out there unless they acquire a better replacement.

Peter,

Am I "misremembering" (thank you Rocket) or didn't the Texas Rangers once offer us one Adrian Gonzalez for Sidney Ponson, straight up, say maybe 5-6 years ago when Sidney was still decent and Gonzalez was a highly regarded power hitting 1st baseman in their minor league system, AND we passed? Please clarify.Thanks.

Herschel

Huff was one of the least productive first basemen in the league. He was the second worst, but Giambi got released. His unselective hitting, lack of real power, and atrocious baserunning will not be missed.

On another note - is Trembley picking lineups out of hat? Why hit Izturis second, with his .300 OBP?

Pete,

I am good with the trade and I am even good with a rotation next year of the two guys just acquired. Between the outfielders and Weiters you have to expect an increase in power production. The O;s could have 6 guys in tonights line up who hit 20+ homers next year.

I would rather see an ace be obtained. This team will show significant improvement if the pitchers get better, and you don't need to score 8 runs every evening.

If the goal is to sign a one year stop gap until Snyder and Bell are ready then I say move Wiggy to 3b and give the newbees a shot. What do we have to lose, a 13th consecutive losing season?

Berken is giving up 2 hits/inning. I'm amazed he's given up only 2 runs.Of course he has to give up a homerun.
Unless Berken has some sort of pitching epiphany over the off season, I can't see him in Baltimore next year.
I was hoping he had a pitching epiphany tonite.Maybe he has...
2 on, 0 outs, no runs. Hmmm. Excellent hitting by Mora and Scott, 2 strikeouts.
Maybe if they had bunted...hahahahaha.

Now, why the hell would a team that cannot pitch, who has a GM that says he needs to grow the pitchers and buy the bats, give up a 21 year old pitcher they just brought to the bigs, pretty much the gem of their minor league system? Am I losing my mind, or did I actually read that? Does anyone actually understand what AM says? Well maybe he ought dangle matusz out there while he's at it?
This blog gets more wacked every day.

It's a good thing Berken didn't start the season in the rotation, he'd be coming up on 20 losses if he did. On a non-related note, the O's need to do some sort of campaigning to get Markakis a Gold Glove, he is an amazing defensive outfielder.

Pete,

I think that McPhail is throwing Trembley under the bus. September is going to be pretty brutal with series against Boston, Tampa, and NY. The lights have been turned out on this season.

This is an indication that Trembley WILL NOT be back next season and that they probably will make a fresh start with a new manager come October 1.

McFail should realize however that until the Orioles start signing some free agents, don't expect toattract a respectable manager.

By the end of the season you're going to see the Orioles with the worst record in baseball.

You're doing a great job with this blog. Keep up the good work.

Scratch that. No epiphany. Just 2 more home runs. Maybe DT will enjoy his time off, if that's what everyone thinks he's getting. His neck will have time to heal from watching balls getting jacked all over the park, many times out of it. Am I the only one who thinks the HR total is just insane?

Yea, let's trade some pitching....

Charles, what exactly do you think that AM needs to know about this team and organization that he does not already know, or that he can learn by reading some blog? He's clued in. And he's not throwing anyone under the bus. This season was over on April 1. This is the pain he was talking about. Trembley just happens to be the guy in the chair charged with keeping some order and coaching up the young players. They have five pitchers under 25 in the rotation! All rookies.Competing in the AL East, arguably the toughest division in baseball. That's not a bus coming. That's a 50 car train loaded with explosives on the wrong track!

The Huff deal needed to be done. He faded this year and there is no proof that he will rebound next year or beyond. We need to move on and look at other options...

We need a lot on this team, and I agree with most of the opinions the positive fans have put forth. Except: We do not need a big HR guy. Why not? Because they DON'T WIN for their teams! I just looked at league HR leaders, back through '89, and at the WS participants. That's 19 World Series, 38 total teams making it to the WS. Four of the 38 teams had the league HR leader. Before '89 it looks even worse, but I'd already worn down my pencil. My point (haha): Having a big HR guy on the team does not at all correlate with winning games. Not at all. Not. Very exciting, and makes the news even the non-baseball people see, but not at all an essential part of building a winner, and quite possibly a negative.

Well, Danny, I don't think anyone is saying that we need a guy who is going to lead the team in HRs, but rather that 1b and 3b are generally power positions, and the O's need more pop from those spots, and a guy capable of hitting 30+ homers to bat cleanup.

Thanks for taking the time to research, but your logic in looking soley for league leaders was seriously flawed to begin with. I bet if you looked for WS teams with a 30+ homerun guy, or a player finishing in the top 10 in homers the results would look quite a bit different.

What FA will ever want to sign here? Are you kidding 12 straight losing seasons. Patten getting killed and shutdown. Tillman and Matusz era's over 5 and a half??!! Are you kidding we will be lucky to get a loser like Huff this offseason.

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About Peter Schmuck
Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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