Although my initial feeling was one of disappointment, I have to admit that I have never seen anyone play who will be drafted today. My opinions are really based on observations fed to me by others; usually those not talented enough to currently be evaluating and selecting players for a major league team. The Orioles front office has no incentive to blow the pick, and will pay for it with their jobs if they develop a habit of blowing them. So I have decided to reserve judgment.

I am happy to say that I am now back in the States for a short period of time as I am lecturing in Austin. I hope to visit my favorite part of America (Maryland) for a week before I return home.

...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Hope you get here, though the weather has been crappy lately. I think this is a sincere pick, but I don't know how it will turn out.

Can anything good come out of Norco? (I speak as a former resident of Corona).

No, seriously, this looks like a great pick.

I am proud whenever one of our fine Inland Empire folks make it big in sports--in fact, Norco has one of the strongest sports programs in Southern California.

Hopefully he will follow in the footsteps of some of the other Inland athletes who became major league stars.

On the other hand, he could be the second coming of Ben McDonald--which would be alright if the Os played the 1994 Angels every night.

i think a lot of o's fans are gonna have questions about this pick but i'm gonna defer to MC Andy & co. on this. He has my backing. I think the o's are really getting better

Wow... This really does seem like a "signability" pick at first glance... The only way this really makes sense is if they go after some guys in the later rounds that are demanding high bonuses, or if they are serious about jumping into the bidding for the Dominican SS that was profiled the other day...

I thought the O's were long past their days of picking someone simply due to signability. But I guess not.

The amount of talent they were sitting on when their turn came is mind-boggling. Instead they went for a kid who was on absolutely nobody's radar due to his having exactly one effective pitch; a fastball no less.

There is absiolutely no excuse for such a dreadful decision. It was clearly a money call and therefore unquestionably came from Angelos, who still seems to think you can take it with you, and which also means MacPhail will take the hit for the call and therefore should quit now while his reputation is still intact.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Who knows. People said the same thing about Flacco. You have to wait and see. I think Baseball America does as great job, but it's not infallible. Keep in mind that the various draft books don't all have a set of eyeballs on each player. The Orioles did bring the kid -- and some of the others -- in for workouts, so they did see them close up. I'll defer to them for the moment.

Peter,

Has there been any word out of the warehouse on why they valued him so much higher than he was rated by basically everyone else?

...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Got to ask, who was everybody else? The Orioles brought the kids in and worked them out. They liked this guy the best. I kind of like the last two guys they picked first, so I'll withhold judgment just because Baseball America has a different opinion.

Mistake not taking Wheeler, but we made the Giants very happy.

I'm a bit disappointed, sorry but the guy looks chubby. 245lbs at 18 years sounds like a fat guy in the making.

Pete, I would like to ask an off-topic question: I saw Wieters first AB tonight, he popped up and the Mariner infield let it fall to the ground. It was ruled a hit. Why not an error? It was clearly a catchable ball. I know this is a routine ruling, but I don't understand it. I would really appreciate your insight.

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: As long as I've been doing this, the ball is ruled a hit if no one touches it before it hits the ground. Obviously, it's a defensive screwup, but it's hard to assign blame if no one touches it. They probably should have a team error category for plays like that.

Seems like a dare. Based on your last sentence, I sense you feel the same way.

I don't like the pick at all. If the pitching depth was so deep in the draft, they should have gone after one of the top position players in the draft. A high school pitching prospect is a huge unknown. The O's desperately need a SS in the farm system. They should have taken the best SS available in the draft, unless they are going after the SS from the Domincan Republic.

It just does not make sense to go after a HS pitcher when everyone else had him rated a much later pick. If that was their guy, why couldn't they have traded back and received an additional pick and get their guy? Or do they not trade picks in the MLB Draft often?

...............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Major League Baseball does not allow the trading of draft choices.

Two things; the Hobgood pick does smell of signability. It seems a stretch when most had him a late first as best, more possibly a second or even third rounder. Guess we'll all find out a few years down the road but it still reeks of signability to me.

Everyone that thinks Hobgood is no good because he's chubby should refer back to Sabathia. He's really chubby. Would you turn him down? I thought not. Give Andy and the O's scouts some slack!

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I don't think the guy is chubby. He's just wide.

Peter,

Have the Orioles EVER drafted a high school player who: 1) Made it to the Majors; 2) Had a productive Major League career?

Sorry, but I smell the stench of Adam Loewen and Billy Rowell in our 1st & 2nd round choices.

His curveball is even better than his fastball and is considered major league caliber already.

Arrrggghh!!! High school pitchers are nothing but wasted picks. Seriously Andy, wasn't there at least a single overweight, one-pitch, sign-able *college* pitcher? At least he would have another two to four years of experience from which to draw conclusions.

I really like what McPhail has done so far, but this is a boneheaded move.

Yeah yeah, I know -- you have to wait years before you know. But the odds of a high school pitcher panning out are a lot lower than a college pitcher, and it's not like anyone was dying for a this one-pitch high school wonder. Except for the O's.

Pass the donuts.

Haters and blind followers of Baseball America beware! BA is wrong more often than they are right - I'll trust Jordan and the real baseball scouts. I love this pick. Hobgood has been climbing fast for the past several weeks. He throws mid-90's heat and was off-the-charts on the O's personality/character assessment.

I'm going to assume that MacPhail and Jordan know more than I do about these kids I hadn't heard of before last week.

The pick is fine. The guys on MLB.com thought he reminded them of Joba. I think the Orioles needed to draft like this so the bottom of the system would not be barren. If they drafted a Crow, he would come up quickly, but in three years, there would be NO pitching prospects coming up. If the O's contend in three years, they still want good prospects in the system, and this will help.

Jubal,

Brooks Robinson.

Pretty sure he did alright.

Jubal,

Brooks Robinson.

Pretty sure he did alright.

I swear alot of Oriole fans are even more psycho than Redskin fans. And just as out of touch with reality. Anyone who complains about this pick is making a fool of themselves. Virtually none of us have seen ANY of these guys play baseball. Hasn't McPhail done enough in the past 2 years to warrant cutting the guy some slack? These blogosphere maniacs are the same idiots who want to send Wieters back down and move Johnson to the rotation. Calm down everyone. TRUST IN MCPHAIL! It's safe to say that we have the foundation built, now comes the next step. He is building upon that foundation. The more arms, the better. And looking at Bergesen, Hernandez, and co. tells me that Hobgood is in good hands. I am content because I look at the big picture. By the time Hobgood puts it together, our rotation will already be among the league's best. Why not stockpile arms in the AL East?

Pete,
You wanted to know who the "everybody else" is who didn't rate Hobgood as highly as the Orioles. How about Keith Law and other draft scouts from Scouts, Inc., Jim Callis, the staff of Baseball America other than Callis (they have multiple people view the picks), and Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider? To imply that the only people who evaluate the draft are the O's and Baseball America is wrong. How about you tell us who are the people other than the O's who rated this guy a top five (or even top ten) pick? Why not use your contacts and call other teams' scouts, GMs, or other people who specialize in the draft and buttress your position. Find us somebody whose expertise in the draft outside of the O's organization that agrees with their and your point of view, rather than mock those of us who actually did research and read several draft guides. If you're going to just parrot the O's company line as usual, that's fine, but don't pretend that nobody else disagrees with them and imply that our criticism is unsupported or unjustified. I'm fine with picking Hobgood, but not with the number five pick when Crow, Matzek, Miller, and others are still on the board. They could have taken any of the top talents and then grabbed Hobgood with their 2nd round pick. It's not just whether or not the club likes the player, I'm fine with them liking him and picking outside the mainstream, but part of a draft is knowing how other teams rate players and not overdrafting or overreaching so you maximize the talent that you accumulate in a draft. It's pretty obvious that they could have gotten him in the 2nd round and used this top pick on a another top talent and really restocked the system. That's the real problem with this pick, we could have had Hobgood and Crow or another top talent.

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I don't want to break this to you, but this isn't fantasy baseball. I'm sure the Orioles check out those publications once in awhile, but they have their own scouting staff and they've done a pretty good job the past few years. I have great respect for Baseball America -- I used to be their American League columnist -- but you don't pick your top pick by taking a concensus of the various media outlets. That Flacco guy is a good example, by the way.

Jubal - Don't cast judgement on Billy Rowell so quickly. He's still only 20 years old and he's putting up decent power numbers in Frederick this season. Last year, he hit 7 homers in 375 at bats. This year, he's got 7 in 205 at bats. He's still got a ways to go with his plate discipline, but as I said, he's still only 20.

I like the Hobgood pick. I don't know why, but I have a good feeling about the kid. From the videos, you can tell that he has life on his fastball and an absolutely filthy breaking ball, which is amazing for a high schooler. And to those of you who are looking at the 6'4", 245 listing, look at a picture of Hobgood before you call him fat. He's just got a huge frame and he's absolutely built.

Admittedly my fat guy comment wasn’t exactly the right thing to say. Obviously it is unfair to Hobgood, (and McPhail), to denigrate him based on some simpleton observation from a 20sec video. And weight isn’t a deal breaker for pitchers, as CC, Wells and Chamberlain have demonstrated. Further, no one is paying me to scout baseball players, and even pro scouts can’t call any individual a slam dunk to future greatness.

I think where a lot of us who don’t like the pick stand is simply, we have done some homework, we have read some information by respected baseball sources and the majority did not rate Hobgood as a #5 pick. So we were a little surprised, so we had to digest it a bit. Of course I defer to McPhail, I haven’t felt this good about being an O’s fan since preseason 1998.

BTW Pete, thanks for your explanation of the Wieters pop-up. It was one of those baseball quirks I had to cross off my list…which is clear…for now at least.

Pete,

As a usual doubting Thomas, I too withold judgement and I'm cautiously optimistic! The SS pickup at the second position, another good sign and a LF/1B prospect to boot! Nice draft and if a couple of the later round picks blossum we'll be in good shape!