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June 13, 2009

Orioles: Perspective check

The first thing you have to do to survive this ugly period in this transitional season is to stop comparing how you feel about the team now to how you felt on the night Matt Wieters made his Orioles debut.

Remember how good that felt? The Orioles won that night for the seventh time in eight games and everybody overreacted and thought that happy days were here again. It was fun, of course, because some of the young pitchers had come up and made solid starts, Nolan Reimold was rolling and Wieters appeared to be the icing on the cake. It wasn't real, however, and everyone should have recognized that and just enjoyed the moment.

Oops, there I go again telling other people how to feel. The fact is, the Orioles are very much the team they were expected to be, though this particularly offensive slump has been deeper and more extended than most. It will end soon and the team will start winning about half of it's games and the Orioles will end up with 70 wins or so. If you expected anything more than that and you're fuming about another lost season, this is more about you than it is about them.

Posted by Peter Schmuck at 12:52 PM | | Comments (28)
Categories: Just baseball
        

Comments

selling perspective to this crowd is like selling prophylactics to Ken or "feminine hygiene products" to Barbie. They havent a clue what to do with them even if they WERE equipped to use them.

One of the better posts of late. I say, I do like it. With ham and green eggs, ofc... All the same, good comments.

Pete I just read your very good article about "nobody willing to step up to the plate for the O's"suggesting that they are missing a clubhouse leader. I agree wholeheartedly but in the absence of someone like Millar and with so many young rookies on the team where does Dave Trembley get off saying "I usually leave the players alone,'' "I talk to a lot of guys one-on-one. Today, I talked to the group as a whole. It's all about basics. Don't worry about what you can't control? The manager can't go out and hit or pitch for the team but surely its the managers job to motivate and encourage? Perhaps a little more 'hands-on' time with the team between and before games might at least provide some of the encouragement the young players in particular seem to be missing in the absence of a Colin Millar type of player. I have been disappointed with Trembley's attitude on this one and I am a big Trembley supporter.

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Pete' s reply: Trembley is trying to take that role and called the meeting Friday for that reason. I just think some leadership has to come from within.

Pete i wish i could have had a built in excuse on my job like it's a rebuilding year. You eventually have to be held accountable and not keep saying that if you expected anymore then you are getting then it's all about you. According to andy's plan the majority of that plan consists of bringing up all the young guns on this team. So please tell me how bringing up these young pitchers is going to solve the rest of this team woes. Lack of productive hitting, failure to advance runners into scoring position, failure to run the bases properly , leaving tons of runners in scoring postion, throwing to the wrong bases swinging at bad pitches, Totally lacking a team leader and total lack of motivation from a manager who wants to have empathy on his players rather expect them to be inspired and accountable every time they step between the white lines. So please explain to me according to andy plan how are they going to rectify all these problems when next year you are going to have to fill at least 3 more postion players on your team, mora ,huff, scott, does bringing up pitchers automatically make roberts, nick, jones, weiters better players.You can't explain to me how they can continue to under perform night in and night out and everybody just keeps saying that it's a rebuilding year. I wish i could have had that built in excuse on my job all those years with my bosses not expecting to much from me.


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Pete's reply: Well then, you should have become a great GM and taken over a team that had lost nine years in a row. When you do that, you get time to rebuild.

if you wanta win, you have to act and play to win. the sunday malaise is the perfect example. the second string lineup we have to put up with is a crock. sunday sets the tone for the week. it energizes the fanbase. it used to be the markee game of the week. now it is used to rest the veterans. the only veterans that need a rest, that i know of, are down at the vfw. catcher rotations, pitcher rotations, lets win ten in a row then we can all rest.

orioles need someone to step and say...i'm spartacus! someone has to step up to be a leader. trembley should be the leader but it's hard to imagine his let's have fun meeting having any bite and that meeting was his chance to shake things up. he needed to tell the team that he was mad as hell and he wasn't going to take it anymore. if he had said that the players would have said. who is that guy? lord baltimore. orioles need to be shaken not stirred. where else can you work in stuff from 4 movies hopefully the next game won't seem like the longest day. that's 5!


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Pete's reply: You had me at "I'm Spartacus."

Pete,

Nice realism, say like the last 11 years! Problem is, the Manager isn't new and between stupid pitching changes from overmanaging to failing to get a struggling team to manufacture runs, Dave has demonstrated he is well over his head. How for the love of God do you take Reimhold out of the current line-up as he is one of the few guys hitting? How do you repeatedly play your bench on the last game of series and continue to wonder why your record is so poor on series ending games? How do you bring in Jaime Walker repeatedly to get left handers out, only to see him fail and drag the O's to the loss column and EXPECT different results.

We are obviously short a few players, particularly in the rotation and our bats are cold right now, but we really need the manager to step up to the plate and manage like a major league manager!

Amen!

You can go back in the archives snd see the hype about all the Orioles hot pitching prospects over the past, say 6 seasons. Then you heard about new leadership, great prospects, new training facilities (oops, forget that one) , etc,

It may be too early to judge the 'rebuilding' , as you need to actually give McPhail about 4 more years, as Wietres and Reimold weren't his picks, and we won't know about thepitchers that are next to be brought-up.

Having low expectations going into the season is the 'out' the Orioles have used for so many years now they need a new slogan.

Should we hire Dennis Green as a consultant? WE ARE WHO WE THOUGHT WE WERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last year was supposed to be about building an actual farm system.

This year was supposed to be about finding out who can play and who cannot.

Next year was supposed to be about reaching .500.

2011 was supposed to be about competing, at least for the wild card.

I see nothing whatsoever to assume that anything in that schedule has changed.

When are people going to stop apologizing for an under achieving team? I hate the old line about managers only making a difference in 3 games a year. Twice last night Wieters leads off with a single and Andino isn't trying to bunt him over either time. This is what #9 hitters are supposed to do.Benching Reimold when he's averaged an RBI about every six AB's in his career isn't bad luck.Keeping Mora who hasn't had an RBI in 98 AB's in the middle of the line up isn't bad luck.

All teams go through slumps is another lame excuse.The O's have been losing road games, third games of series,losing against lefties,losing on Sundays,last in the league in walks.A horrendous record when trailing after 7 innings..All these things are part of the culture of this team not in the past two weeks but going back way farther than that.They need a new way of thinking and leadership from the dugout,someone the players have confidence in.

They also need a game changing bat more than anything right now. I don't think anyone on the team is capable of that on a consistent basis.The whole idea from the get go that we're not going to compete until 2011 was a horrible message for the FO to send.This does nothing but excuse losing.

McPhail himself is finally getting the message and he's pushing "the plan" ahead with the recent promotions to Norfolk.We can't depend on buying bats, the good ones will be over priced. We have to trade for them.

What makes this swoon particularly frustrating is that it's the offense that is struggling. Everyone assumed that the Orioles would only win 70 games because the starting pitching was in such shambles.

Over the past 12 games in which the Birds are 2-10, they have scored 4 or more runs once (a loss). During this time, the pitching staff has surrendered 4 or less runs SIX times.

The pitching staff has kept games close often enough to play .500 ball. Now, the O's just seem determined to find a different way to tear the fans' hearts out.

On the bright side, we'll appreciate a winning record (not far down the road, hopefully) a heck of a lot more.

Chalk up one of those 70 wins tonight...Hill-7ip/3h/3w/2er....O's 7-2's....

I couldn't agree more Pete. Better days are on the horizon. It took a long time to create this mess and it's going to take more than two years to dig out. If you want to cheer about something, cheer about the Norfolk Tides. They are winning and they have talent. Talent that will contribute to winning in Baltimore soon enough. Just breathe...

Exactly right Pete... nothing has changed, from the original pre-season expectations. The offensive slump has been prolonged, but will end... 101 games left, I still think the O's finish with 73-76 wins. As rough a stretch as this has been, the O's are a lot more enjoyable to watch on a daily basis, because of the number of players on the roster that can/will be part of the future core.

This is a talented offense 1-8, and will get going at some point.

Guthrie, Uehera, Hill, Bergesen, and Berken is good enough to keep you in most games... even with their limitations.

Zaun, Wiggington, Andino, Pie is a bench capable of contributing...

Sherrill can close in the Major Leagues, but once recalled, Ray should get another opportunity. I believe Sherrill is better suited as a lefty-specialist or set-up… and if Sherrill is in that roll, there is no need to carry Hendrickson. Sherrill teams with Castillo to give the pen two lefty relievers, and from the right-side you have Ray, Johnson, Albers, Baez, and Bass.

Will be interesting to see if Guthrie, Baez, Sherrill, Huff, and perhaps Scott are moved at the deadline.... I think the O's listen to offers on each, and quite possibly move Baez, and Sherrill... I think that it is unlikely Huff, Scott, and Guthrie are traded.

Of course the other thing enjoyable to watch right is the development going on in the minors, particularly with Tillman, Arrieta, Patton, Hernandez in the Norfolk rotation.... the continued progress of Snyder at Bowie... and Matusz's impending arrival with the Baysox.

Chin-up O's fans... the last time it was this good as an Oriole fan, it was '97.

Pete, I agree and disagree. While it's true people shouldn't have gotten too optimistic when Matt Wieters and the pitchers arrived, the current slump is much worse than anyone expected.

If, as you say, the Orioles end up with 70 wins or so, then you're right, that's about where we figured they'd end up, so no one should be shocked, though a modest improvement over that figure was by no means unreasonable.

My concern is, though, is that while the team should start hitting well, and soon, I don't know that that's going to be enough. The bigger problem, and one that doesn't seem to have such foreseeable solution, is starting pitching.

At this point in the season there is no one pitcher in the rotation who is without question marks:

* Jeremy Guthrie--He yielded 3 runs in 6 innings last start and struggled all night with his command in the strike zone. His disappointing season is such, however, that that outing is deemed progress over the previous one, where he gave up 6 runs in two-thirds of an inning and did not resemble the hurler for which the O's have had such high hopes.

* Koji Uehara--Probably the club's most consistent starter over much of the year, he's had problems working late in games. The time on the DL didn't help. He needs either to figure out how to get into the later innings without getting lit up or perhaps go to the bullpen. Problem with that is he's supposed to be the O's number two starter. Oops.

* Rich Hill--Maybe the biggest question mark of them all, Hill has pitched brilliantly at times, but then had outings that underscored all the doubts about him returning to form after last year. Boom or bust.

* Brad Bergesen--Of late he's looked like an ace without ace stuff. Certainly the most consistent member of the rotation over the past two starts and one of the few reasons to be optimistic when evaluating O's starters, Bergesen looks like he could be a dependable righty for years to come. He still must win over naysayers who question whether his stuff is good enough to play for the long haul in the majors, though he quieted them a bit with back-to-back strong outings against the Mariners.

* Jason Berken--He's pitched well at times, but the jury's still out on whether he's really ready to make the leap to the big leagues after starting the season in Double-A. After his last start, Berken's ERA ballooned to 7.32, which makes it all the more puzzling the demotion of Dave Hernandez (3.95).

True, the rotation could come together and start pitching well, but considering that after 61 games the Orioles' record is six games worse than last season: 25-36 this year, 31-30 in 2008 (and for the record, they were better in 2007 under Sam Perlozzo at 29-32), the starters must improve from here out to avert a possible 100 loss season.

This isn't idle speculation but a glance at recent history. We all know the scenario: Early in the season Oriole starters can't work deep into games, but the 'pen bails them out repeatedly; this goes on until a breaking point late in the year, where the relievers burn out. This has been the O's M.O. for years, and if happens this year, things could get ugly around Camden Yards.

If it gets that bad, Pete, I'm sorry, but Oriole fans will have a legitimate reason to fume. And we do have a legitimate reason to fume at Andy MacPhail's signing Adam Eaton and Mark Hendrickson, two wasted rotation spots, instead of decent starters. Eaton's gone, and Hendrickson is now relegated to the bullpen, where he should have been in the first place, and who may not be with the team much longer if he continues to pitch poorly.

There is no defense for what MacPhail did, unless he was following orders from Peter Angelos to get cheap pitchers. More likely it was a combination of that and MacPhail's policy of not foing out of the system to pay for arms.

While I agree with that in general, MacPhail showed himself to be too rigid, not bending even when the situation clearly warranted it.

And to what end was the signing of bargain basement arms when better pitchers were out there? Save a little money? But that doesn't follow, because the end result is a rotation so poor that the team is in line to lose 100+ games. If that happens, Angelos and MacPhail should get ready for some new all-time attendance lows (under 10,000?).

The only possible way I see the O's avoiding such a disaster is to bring up some of their young guns, because MacPhail won't go after Tom Glavine and the southpaw probably wouldn't be interested in playing with the Orioles. To use Dave Trembley's term, more "cavalry" needs to be sent and soon, otherwise "General Custer" may not be around much longer.

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Pete's reply: I don't think the pitching is that big an issue at the moment. I'm content to let Bergesen, Berken and Hill continue their audition for the future.

Thanks, Peter. I feel sooooo much more hopeful about the O's right now than I have in years. This was always going to be a rebuilding season. Tillman and Arrieta are close, and maybe Patton too. Reimold looks good. Jones is a star. This team could be decent as soon as next year -- but 2011 is still the goal. After 11 long years, I can wait two more.

Hey Pete, 10 years ago TODAY the Orioles beat the braves 22-1. Cal Ripken went 6 for 6 with 2 dingers. Maybe some decade old mojo comes back to work for the O's tonight.

Fact is, every year there are teams that exceed expectations and teams that disappoint. Its not always determined quantitatively; intangibles are often at work. This team, for whatever reason, has no consistency or identity. They play scared, he manages scared. I doubt that a predetermined and somewhat arbitrary timetable will change that.

And if this plan doesn't work then what are you going to tell me? Please report responsibly and stop being a homer Please that is all i ask.

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Pete's reply: Sure I've considered that it might not work. It might not. I've also considered that if the Orioles viewed things like you do, they'd bail on this and continue the same endless cycle of defeat and frustration. Now for your other comment. I'm getting real tired of this crap. If I don't agree with you, I'm not reporting responsibly and I'm a homer. Have you considered the possibility that you might be overly negative and bitter?

Ken, I don't think replacing Mora's projected 6 hrs and 50 rbi s will be much of a problem.I never liked the long term deal he got, but they had to reward him for wanting to stick around I guess. Plus they were handing out a few crazy contracts at the time. So the O's can save about 10 mm. Baez goes, Huff goes, another 15 mm in savings. Let's see what the folks do with that 25 mm.

And all i ask is it just possible that some of the things i say are true. Just some of the things. My stance is always going to be viewed as negative, doesn't mean that i am wrong.

70 wins is a bit optimistic for me--I remember when I thought we'd end up with 70 last year and then we fell off the table and my heart broke (again, as usual).

Other than that, thanks for the wisdom. Perspective is a talent, and you bring it. Thanks.

Perspective is in the eye of the beholder and by the read of this blog, Pete your in the lower 10 percent. If the right personnel moves had been made in the offseason, the right opening day roster had been implied and a major league manager had been hired, the O's WOULD be a .500 team, no question. That would represent progress! What we've seen so far is poor fundamentals, horrid pitching, terrible player perssonel moves (this year) and a sense of already going through the motions and a great daily blog that seems to be apologizing daily for the teams failures. I'm sure they are all great guys and wonderful human beings, but as many of the bloggers have pointed out, we all have jobs to do, most don't paid as any of these guys do, and we don't get to say were rebuilding so I'm gonna mail my job in for the next 11 years!
We want to see progress, to potential progress and how well our next generation of players will turn all this around. The young guys have all been improvements and play hard, it's the high paid guys that look like bad influences on them and making excuses for them will only perpetuate this same behavior for years to come!

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Pete's reply: If your goal is to watch a .500 team for one year and then fall back into baseball hell, I concede the point Keith.

In adition to overly bitter and negative add in that he just doesnt know what he thinks he knows. I keep seeing statements attributed to Andrew and Dave and blindly to the organization that I just dont think they ever actually made. Where did Andy say his plan consisted mainly of bringing up the pitchers drafted before he got here? I seem to recall the plan being about a renewal of international scouting, player development, I assume Weiters, a non pitcher who was widely claimed by non team sources to be the best prospect in baseball figured in somewhere. Reimold seems to figure in. The two signature trades would seem to figure in somewhere. As for the revelation that it might not work? What brilliance! There are no guarantees. That is why MacPhail is building an organization, not a team. This seems to escape the naysayers. Even if all our prospects wash out due to injuries, the organization being built will stand us in good stead. But that takes more of that perspective stuff that you are trying to sell to disinterested purveyors of doom and gloom.

jim66. I agree that Mora certainly isn't going to be around past this year. I was one of Baez' harshest critics but he has done a decent job this yeara nd if he's willing to sign for a mill or so-why not? Maybe we'll recoup some of our losses from the bloated 19 mill deal.
I'm on the fence about Huff. After his stellar 08 and fast start, I was gung ho about re-signing him but maybe he's coming back to earth. He is s serviceable 1B but is probably better served as our DH. I'd say if he ends up hitting .270-.290 with 25-30 Hr and 90-100 RBI, then offer him 5-7 mill. Some may feel he'll ask for more but I can't see that-if so, let him walk.
We may have gaping holes at 1st and 3rd so hopefully, there's help on the farm or in the free agent market. We need to stay away from aging, out-of-shape guys like Wigginton though!

Pete:

I wouldn't worry too much about what blancione writes. I believe many of those that contribute to The Sun's various sports' blogs will agree with me that he is single most negative individual in Baltimore. The guy NEVER posts anything positive. What's worse is that he apparently believes such "empty" opinions contain any value. While I'm all for critical analysis, and the Orioles certainly deserve same, Mr. Lancione doesn't seem to grasp the latter portion of that phrase. In short, engaging with him is akin to wrestling with a pig--you only get muddy and the pig likes it.

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About Peter Schmuck
Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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