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June 21, 2009

Baseball 101

Okay, for all of you who posted your complaints about Dave Trembley letting Danys Baez pitch to Ryan Howard, I'm only going to say this once -- and it has nothing to do with being a Dave apologist. There were a few things he did in the game I didn't agree with, but the Howard non-decision is such a no-brainer I'm surprised I have to do this.

The situation was this: The Orioles were up by one run with runners at FIRST and THIRD base and TWO outs. Howard was out of the starting lineup because he had gone to the hospital the night before with dehydration, but that's actually irrelevant, because it shouldn't affect the decision. To quote one correct poster, there is not one manager at any professional level who would have walked Howard in that situation.

The guy is a monster, but even at his best he is only going to hit a home run about once every 10 at-bats. If you walk him, you load the bases, which brings the next batter to the plate with a chance to drive home the tying and go-ahead runs with a SINGLE. The average hitter in that situation gets a hit about once every four at-bats.

It's really that simple. The dynamic changes if the runner steals second base, but you still might pitch to Howard if the guy behind him has a better statistical chance to get a hit (not a home run) than Howard.

I really have to call some people out here, as one poster already did. The only way you justify an intentional walk to Howard in that situation is if you can see into the future. I don't doubt some of you can do that, but if you can, you should be at the racetrack and not wasting time with my blog.

Posted by Peter Schmuck at 10:40 AM | | Comments (24)
Categories: Just baseball
        

Comments

Totally agree . . . the only thing that would have changed the situation was if the O's actually had a reliable lefty specialist. Then you make the pitching change. But the way the lefties have been pitching this year, Baez was the best option.

not an intentional walk, heck no. but the monster struck out 398 times in the last 2 seasons. let him work for it a little. but that's on Baez not Dave T

Pete,

I imagine people are looking for any reason to dump Trembley, which I don't disagree with, but I agree with you on this. What we should be arguing about is benching Reimold against a LH starter, and then pinch hitting him against a RH reliever. In this case Trembley was wrong. (Not to take away anything from Scott, who has recent success against lefties).

Hey Pete,
Agree with you 100%. The only people who say you shouldnt pitch to Howard or anyone in that situation are the armchair managers of the world... that being said I still think Trembles is an awful manager. he has got to go along with Mora...

What has to be factored into all of this is that Bergesen had to run the bases in the top of the inning, and was on base when the final out was made. He didn't go through his usual routine before the inning started.

He had thrown only 71 pitches, so USUALLY you would leave him in there to complete the inning.

My baseball 101 is that you leave the starter in through the 7th inning if he has a shutout and a three run lead. If the starter loses the shutout and puts the TIE RUN on base, you pull him - that way, he can only get a W and can't get an L.

What Trembley did was in between - he left him in too long, then didn't let him finish the inning. That would leave a lot of O's players rolling their eyes in the dugout. Trembly allowed him to face the lead run, which in this case singled, leaving the Phils down 3-2 with 2 runners on. Bergerson was still under 100 pitches. I say, you LEAVE the starter in at that point and keep Baez in for the eighth.

If I'm Trembly, I say you noticed Bergersen struggling with his delivery, or release point, or something to justify your decision.

To sum up: Bergersen CAN'T get an L for last nights game unless HE surrenders the go ahead run. My baseball 101 rule doesn't apply in the 5th or 6th inning.

Happy Father's Day Peter;

On last night MASN broadcast, either Gary Thorne or Buck Martinez suposedly made a comment that several players went to Dave Trembley's office prior to last night's game to question, or at least voice their concerns about, last night's lineup. Are you aware of this or can you confirm that this happened? I know Trembley wanted to get Scott some at bats, but he should be putting the lineup together that has the best change of winning.

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Pete's reply: I am not in Philly and do not know about that.

As far as Trembley goes, this team is doing more right than wrong. Sure, everyone is going to pick on his decision-making, but some things are intangibles. It's like Kevin Millar in the dugout. He's not gonna have 30 dingers or a .300 average, but he's going to keep everyone on their toes and keep the morale up. Trembley, being a minor-league manager, is going to keep this club moving in the right direction, even if he isn't always the best performer.

As to pitching to Ryan Howard, I can't say it was a bad decision. Your points are especially true, and also, we have, arguably, our best reliever on the mound. He is a split-baller, so on most of his pitches, he'll have some good sink, and when he is doing well, Howard will strike out or ground out. The scenario didn't end the way Trembley or Baltimore in its entirety would have liked, but the end result was one more in the win column, so I'll take it.

So I can see in the future, for instance I correctly predicted that the Cubs, Red Sox, Cards, Giants and Rockies would win yesterday and that Detroit and the Brew Crew would score a lot of runs.

Oh wait nevermind that was just luck ;-)

I wasn't hating on Dave for pitching to Howard, I would've been hating on the O's for leaving the entire team on base at one point, but hey they made up for it. Break out the brooms.

Pete,

The thought never crossed my mind under the circumstances. HOWEVER, here we go again with the "B" line-up on the last day of a series, it's almost like Dave doesn't want to win! Nick desperately needed a day off, he is looking sick at bat, BUT why give Huff the day off. He's had plenty of days off, has been hitting lefties pretty well and has even been the DH several games already this year! Not quite sure the agenda here but keeping guys HAPPY isn't a good thing, were on a roll lets not let it slip away!


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Pete's reply: I doubt it was about keeping people happy. I doubt Huff wanted the day off. I do, however, find it curious that Dave went with the LF cleanup hitter. This is one instance where I might have hit Melvin second and gone with Reimold in the middle of the lineup somewhere.

Pete,

I'm with Russ! We want to see the best line-up, not some "lets keep peace in the locker room stuff!"

Keith

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Pete's reply: Why does everyone assume that has anything to do with it? I think it's Trembley acting out his own personal philosophy about resting players. The goal is to not have another 10-30 finish with a bunch of tired, banged-up players at the end of the year. Andy said a couple of weeks ago that he wants the team to end the season on an upswing for a change.

Pete,

Might be Baseball 101, but any circus monkey can push buttons; maybe it's not too much to ask to have a manager that can feel the situation and react accordingly. I was listening to the game on the Philly station and the announcers stated the Howard as a pinch-hitter had well over a .300 avg in his career. Meanwhile, Manny, Moe and Jack (Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste and Eric Bruntlett) are on the bench and one of them will come in to pinch hit for the pitcher, as well as burning up the Phillies bench to pinch run for Howard. Do I load the bases and take a chance one of those jokers gets a hit? Absolutely. Now is that Baseball 101? Of course not, but it was the right thing to do last night.


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Pete's reply: Atomic Dog. I like you, but that might have been the most illogical post I've ever gotten. If Dave could predict the future, he'd be playing in a higher league. The guy had one foot in the hospital and he got a fat pitch and got lucky. You are 100 percent wrong on this one. There's no gray area here. If Dave had walked him there, he should have walked right out to the parking lot and driven back to the minor leagues. The last time I saw a manager make a move that stupid, he was fired the next morning, and rightfully so.

that was baseball 102 .

Peter,

Thank you! I was beginning to feel like I was on an island!

Pete,

I totally agree the "correct" move was what Trembly did. All I'm saying is: 1)there were 2 outs, 2) Philles had all sorts of momentum going on that inning, 3) Ryan Howard is a beast at Citizen's Bank park, I don't care how sick he was, 4) That was Danys Baez, not Goose Gossage on the mound. It's not a matter of being a fortune teller or seeing into the future, it's about what scenario do I trust in that situation? Do I trust Howard to come up big or Baez to groove one? I'll bet on Howard everytime on that one and never loose money over the long run.

so if baez had done the right thing and walked howard with 4 pitches in the dirt, the so called unintentional intentional walk, that would have been ok, and that was kinda the plan, don't give him anything to hit.
So the manager gives the pitcher a chance to screw up against a better hitter than anyone on the bench.
I know its baseball 101- so is hitting the pitcher 9th but some managers don't do that-to not put the lead run in scoring position, but there are other factors to consider. I think that's all anyone is saying.


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Pete's reply: I don't care what all anybody's saying. If Baez walks the guy on four pitches that's the wrong move, too. This one isn't complicated. There's no rationalizing it. Give it up. You're basing your opinion on the outcome, which is illogical and silly.

that manager wasn't fired just for doing that...c'mon, that's ridiculous now.That's like waiving your third baseman because half a dozen times during the year he gets thrown out trying to go from first to third on a ball hit in front of him,only to make the first out of the inning, busting another cardinal rule. You wouldn't do that would you?

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Pete's reply: I said the manager was fired for a completely wrong move, not that particular move.

I thought it was the correct call last night and still feel that way today. Baez has been great and Howard was in the Hospital all day.

Pete, I just read that little blurb about Baez apologizing to Bergesen, and after hearing Brad's reply, we have two very classy pitchers. Nice to read about teammates sticking together.

Pete,

I hear you on ending in an upswing, BUT the all-star break is coming up and I'm all for doing the lefty/righty thing but playing more than 1 back-up at a time is pushing the limit of the talent of this team when the objective is to win. Huff didn't need the day off but Nick did! Hey it all worked out, but I think Dave gets carried away with trying to get everyone in every 3-4 games vice once a week.

Couldn't have said it better.

with as much lineup adjustments Trembley malkes, i wonder if Cal would of even gotten to 1000 games if Dave was his manager

Duh, Baez is a right handed pitcher. Howard is a left-handed hitter. You go to the bullpen for a left reliever if you have one. Unfortunately, Dave and McPhail got rid of their best lefty reliever Walker a few weeks ago. No forward thinking and certainly no short-term thinking on this ill-advised pitch-to Howard, sick or not. Another elementary failure in baseball strategy.

All Walker did was give up HR's to lefty's at a rate of one in every 3 appearances just about before he was released. Are you kidding that he was the go to guy? Were you asleep in May and June 2nd when he gave up 2 HR's in 1.0 IP?

No forward thinking? I think everyone in Baltimore (and opposing dugouts) was forward thinking to how hittable he was.

I don't think a GM in the world has a backup plan when their LH specialist self destructs before the end of May and you aren't in the market to trade prospects for a new one.

Pete:

I posted Saturday that if you don't want to use your left-handed relief guys to try and get out LH hitters then you don't need them in your roster.

The next day the O's option LHP Castillo and recall RHP Chris Ray.

OK, I can agree with that move and better understand why Trembley didn't go to a LHP to face Howard.

I just hope we have somebody who can get out lefty hitters.

My problem is not with Baez pitching to Howard but that the starter was allowed to put the tieing and winning run on base.

I have two reasons for this
1) Bergensen ran hard the previous inning to stay out of a double play and was on the bases when the inning ended....should not be an isue but well that's what you get with the DH.

2) Pitchers, especially young o pitchers should not be allowed to continue later in the game when the tieing run is on the bases....They can't lose thus making sure the they have a neutral or good experience not a LOSS. I call this the Weaver/Bamberger theory of developing pitchers.


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Pete's reply: A agree he left Brad in a couple batters too many.

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Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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