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May 15, 2009

Tonight's game a tough call

The Orioles hadn't even showered after Thursday night's 9-5 victory over the Kansas City Royals and I started to get commentors wondering if I am going to call tonight's game a reverse lock.

Based on the pitching matchup, I think that would be the right call, since there would appear to be absolutely no chance that Adam Eaton (2-3, 718) will outduel Zach Greinke (6-1, 0.51) in the second game of the four-game series. But the "reverse lock" -- as it has been explained to me by former Orioles writer and current official scorer Jim Henneman -- must take into account all the circumstances of the game in question.

I'm wondering if the Kansas City Royals are even eligible to be on the wrong end of a reverse lock. For one, they've lost six straight games. For another, they're the Kansas City Royals. Enough said.

If I were to predict an Orioles victory, it would be based on the law of averages. Greinke has been so good for so long that he has to mix in a clinker eventually.

Posted by Peter Schmuck at 6:22 AM | | Comments (23)
Categories: Just baseball
        

Comments

Peter,

Are you starting to get worried about Guthrie? What effect did the WBC have on him? He hasn't looked good yet.


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Pete's reply: I think it's in his head a little bit. He'll be fine.

I was thinking the same thing myself about grinke due for a bad outing.The Royals are also a pretty light hitting team but their team ERA is pretty good. But the time has come to replace Eaton. Beken should be ready soon or even Patton.It's not like they would be eating a lot of salary on eaton and he'd be a waste in the bullpen.The O's will nver get a long winning streak or an 8-10 run with the ineffective starting and bullpen.There's a heck of a lot of games left to be played and the O's should have enough offense on most nights.

They also have to make a firm decision on LF and stick with it.If they send Reimold back down Saturday,it'll be a complete joke, but hey this is the O's and it wouldn't surprise me. I say DL Scott and let Reimy have a couple weeks.

perhaps you don't want to tinker
but I thinker you may mean "a clunker"
with the prospects of facing this Greinke
we'll need all the help we can muster...

Is it just me, or is everyone ignoring that Felix Pie seems to be getting more comfortable at the plate. In the month of May he is 6 for 16 with 2 doubles, 1 home run, 3 walks. He has struck out 4 times this month, but only once in his last 10 at bats. It also seems like he is starting to settle in the field. I just don't want the Orioles to give up on this project just yet, as I still think he has potential.

Looking forward to Rick Hill's start tomorrow.

a smart better keeps betting what trend is hot and doesn't say the law of averages are bound to catch up. that said teh o's will win but i don't expect eaton to pitch well.

a smart bettor keeps betting what trend is hot and doesn't say the law of averages are bound to catch up. that said teh o's will win but i don't expect eaton to pitch well.

Well that is the same thing one coach said after Oral Hershiser pitched his 41st consecutive scoreless inning. I guess when you are rolling the dice you can look at the law of averages, but when a pitcher is as good as Greinke goes against Eaton, you can throw it out.

There is no predicting the Orioles. You can just never tell if you are going to get the Jekel version or the Hyde model.
Nice to see the BP being a little more effective, but then as you mention, it is the Royals.
How long before we hear folks saying Reimold was a bust and it's time to bring up someone else? I give it two more games.

The Birds will beat Greinke, 3-2. Nick the Stick lines a 2-run double. Georgie Boy gets the final out.

KC is a relatively light hitting team so with Eaton pitching they'll only score 7 runs tonight. O's will score 4 off Greinke, get to the bullpen in the 7th and eek out an 8-7 win.

Pete, Tillman is pitching extremely well at Norfolk. When will he replace Eaton?

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Pete's reply: Really depends on whether Eaton forces the issue by continuing to struggle.

Kenny,
I've noticed and have been waiting for it. I've been making the comparison all along to Markakis and Jones. They didn't start hitting a lick until late May, early June when they were first given every day roles. You just need to give the kid some at-bats. But now that Reimold is here I think you need to give him the at-bats. I think Pie becomes your 4th outfielder and you package Montanez in a deal with one of our tradeable commodities and get a little younger. PS...I'm predicting we light up Greinke tonight for 5 runs. We'll get them early but Eaton won't be able to hold the lead again in his last start as an Oriole. But we'll win it in the late innings thanks to the bullpen.

You all seem to forget that Greinke gave up 1 run and lost his last outing. That was his "clinker"...

Birdies have no chance tonight but they will win games 3 and 4.

Pete, It's probably more reasonable to hope for Eaton having a good game, than for Greinke having a bad one, though I know some would want to argue that point.

Greinke is do for a clunker, though, and if the Orioles could get to him early, who knows. Roberts, Markakis and Huff have hit him pretty well in the past. As for the Royals, Eaton has fared a little better, but for both match-ups there hasn't been many at bats.

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_05_15_balmlb_kcamlb_1&mode=preview

If the Orioles could somehow come out of tonight's game with a win they could have a decent shot at a sweep, with Hill and Uehara pitching matching up well against K.C.'s starters. (I say Hill, assuming he pitches like he did in his rehab, but cutting down the walks.)

Barring a return from Jones or Scott, Trembley must decide whether he'll start Reimold or Montanez in left. I'm thinking Montanez probably makes more sense, mainly because he's had 153 ABs in the majors compared to only five from Reimold and that experience may help against someone who's dealing like Greinke. I'd be surprised if Reimold is in the starting lineup.

Speaking of left field, Roch got a blog post from deep left yesterday. Somebody asked him if he'd ever been told he looks like the late country star Conway Twitty! ROTFL

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/15/89538033_b6fbd7a478.jpg

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Pete's reply: I don't think that's a compliment, but I'll call Roch and find out.

I dont really know where to leave this request, but could you talk to someone about getting Markakis to put on a mic when he does his video diaries? The sound isn't very audible, to me at least

Will JOnes be in there tonight?


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Pete's reply: No.

Pie is starting to look like a good investment. June draft we will draft 20 pitchers HS and college, Kidding. 19 pitchers. Have you ever met your neighbor Pat Sajack. Still wondering what Tripp did wrong. There is something there not telling us. For sure. Strange. Cory Doyne is still on my radar. If he pitches at Aberdeen it will be only for a week. They can't hit him there, Bowie or Fredrick. The mystery man who was the minor league pitcher of the year for us 2 yeasr ago is supposed to be healthy. Strange. Thanks.

I agree with Kenny. Pie is starting to look a lot better. He is drawing walks and getting some hits too. I have no idea how he turned that hit into a double yesterday. I hope they stick with him for a while.

WHEN??

Do we bring up some of our pitching at minor leagues??

we don't have a starting pitcher that can go 6 innings

It must be great to go to the park with a pitcher like Greinke pitching for your team. I wonder what that'd be like.

There's no way Greinke ends the season with a 0.79 ERA. I think we can hope the Orioles scratch out three runs or so. Whether the Birds can hold KC to under that is doubtful, but worth finding out.

O's may catch a break....looks like the game will be rained out...weather is nasty here in KC....2 games tomorrow I guess.

Eaton 117 pitched to get through 5 innings...ERA of 7.93

Am I missing something? Does Eaton have some compromising photos of Trembley or MacPhail?

Is there some macabre delight in watching batter foul off pitch after pitch until they can rope a line drive or towering flyball far away from our slick fielders?

The worse thing that ever happened to the O's this season was when Eaton went 8 innings in his ONE AND ONLY GOOD OUTING and then continued to pitch like a three day old waterlogged chum line the rest of the time.

Get him out of here! Put Flanagan in the rotation! Tell Andy, no more scouring the roster for National league pitching detritus!!!!!!! Oops, too late, Rich Hill starts tommorrow...

Hi Pete! Hendrickson is out of the rotation and in the pen, where he will have more success. When will Eaton?


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Pete's reply: Soon.

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About Peter Schmuck
Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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