O's rotation: Fuzzy math
Several posters pointed out that in analyzing the Orioles rotation, it was incorrect to focus on Monday as the day the Orioles would have to insert a replacement for injured right-hander Alfredo Simon, who was just placed on the disabled list and could be lost for several weeks.
That's technically true, and manager Dave Trembley speculated that the team probably would come back with Mark Hendrickson on (almost) regular rest Monday morning at Fenway Park.
Maybe I'm being stubborn, but I don't know if that's necessarily the best way to go about it -- sending a hittable left-hander on what amounts to 3 1/2 days rest at one of the most right-handed-hitter-friendly ballparks in the major leagues.
If the O's decide to hold Brian Bass back to start, I would start him on Monday and keep Hendrickson in the fifth slot. If the plan, however, is definitely to bring up 2008 Orioles Minor League Pitcher of the Year Brad Bergesen, I would agree it's better to debut him at Camden Yards on Tuesday against the heavily right-handed lineup of the Chicago White Sox, regardless of the ramifications on Monday.
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Comments
Mr Scmuck,
Here is what I would like to know if you could. What major league experience did the pitchers for the Rays have when they were brought up compared to our young arms? Are we treating our guys differently? Seems like there are a lot of young pitchers cutting their teeth in the bigs. Are we over coddling guys that are ready?
Thanks.
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Pete's reply: Good question: Each of the Rays five current starters spent at least four years in the minor leagues.
Posted by: Longtimefan | April 15, 2009 9:31 PM
Mr Scmuck,
Here is what I would like to know if you could. What major league experience did the pitchers for the Rays have when they were brought up compared to our young arms? Are we treating our guys differently? Seems like there are a lot of young pitchers cutting their teeth in the bigs. Are we over coddling guys that are ready?
Thanks
Posted by: Longtimefan | April 15, 2009 9:31 PM
Do you mean Chicago White Sox?
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Pete's reply: Yes. Glad you pointed that out so I can call the Cubs and tell them not to travel all the way out here.
Posted by: Dave | April 15, 2009 9:32 PM
Good point about Monday being more like 3.5 days of rest given the early start. I hadn't thought of that. Also, finding another starter for Monday maintains the Lefty-then-Righty set up with Hendrickson pitching before Guthrie.
Although I need to correct you on the Rays. Kazmir spent '03 and '04 in the minors before being promoted at the end of '04, and remaining in the big leagues after that. On Opening Day 2005 he was 20, and wasn't legal to drink alcohol until September. And Garza was drafted in '05, pitched short season that year, then pitched most the year at AA and AAA before making 9 starts at the end of '06 for the Twins.
Yes, Shields, Sonnanstine and Niemann all spent significant time in the minors. But if we followed the example set by the other two, Tillman would have been on the Opening Day roster, and Matusz would be here by mid-August.
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Pete's reply: The whole thing breaks down because you're making a big general comparison without considering the individuals. I'll concede Kazmir came up quickly, but he hasn't exactly overachieved, considering his talent. And I don't know how you brought Matusz into the discussion. He's in the second week of his first pro season. You might see Tillman at midseason, but Matusz isn't likely to show up here this year.
Posted by: Matt | April 15, 2009 11:16 PM
hendrickson pitched wednesday
thursday rest
friday rest
saturday rest
sunday rest
thats 4 days. ok, you could argue that for a night game, you get a few extra hours, but this isnt much different than pitching on a sunday afternoon. also, its 5 sleeps, when your body does much recuperating.
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Pete's reply: Okay, it's 3 2/3 days rest. Deal?
Posted by: pete | April 16, 2009 3:05 PM
Pete,
My comment last night about the Rays' staff was meant as a comparison. Kazmir was permanently in the Majors when he was Tillman's age and had his professional experience. And if Matusz (polished college pither pitcher), were to be promoted on the same schedule as Garza, we would see him in August.
My point is that the O's are following a perfectly reasonable, if slightly less aggressive plan with promoting their pitchers. And many of us for who are clamoring for Bergesen on Mon/Tues are doing so because we believe he's ready, and has nothing left to prove in the minors.
Your recent post on Patton makes me willing to accept him for the Tuesday start. His service time clock has already started, and his options are limited. So let's figure out whether he can get major league hitters out. I just don't want to see Albers, Sarfate, Liz, or any of the other current O's who we know can't throw more than 3 innings. At some point, all of our young will have to be tested at the big league level.
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Pete's reply: I agree on a couple of points, but I still don't see where you got the Garza comparison. He had 14 minor league starts in 2005. Spent part of 2006 in the majors and didn't do well. Spent part of 2007 in the majors and did pretty well. Matusz was in college last year and has made a couple of minor league starts. Are suggesting the O's should call him up this year and then yo-yo him for a couple of years?
Posted by: Matt | April 17, 2009 12:28 AM