Orioles: The longest long shot
The internet betting service Bodog has released its updated proposition odds for the 2009 baseball season and you probably won't be surprised to hear that the Orioles are the longest of long shots to win the World Series. Bodog has the Orioles at 150-1 to go all the way and 50-1 to win the American League pennant.
Strangely, the Orioles the longest shot to win the world championship but not the longest shot to win the pennant. The Kansas City Royals are listed at 60-1 for the pennant, but are posted as twice as likely as the Orioles to win the World Series at 75-1. Must be all their recent postseason experience.
Of course, this is not meant as an endorsement of gambling. I wouldn't touch any of that action with a 10-foot poll. But I am a student of the odds because of how much money and research goes into setting the lines.
Here are some interesting Orioles over/under lines you might want to peruse before you draft your fantasy team.
Total Home Runs – Aubrey Huff
Over / Under 23.5
Total Home Runs – Nick Markakis
Over / Under 23.5
Total Stolen Bases – Brian Roberts
Over / Under 39.5
I believe Brian will steal more than 39.5 bases and Huff will hit 24 homers or more, but the Nick Markakis over-under seems to be right on the money. Flip a coin, though this obviously is not meant as an endorsement of flipping coins.
Not surprisingly, the Yankees are posted as the favorite to win the World Series this year (9/5), followed closely by the Red Sox (11/2), with the Chicago Cubs (8/1) and New York Mets (8/1) also in single digits.






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Comments
Hi Pete; please tell me where Scotty Moore is and if he has a chance of coming back with the team next month.
Thanks
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Pete's reply: Scott is here. He's swinging the bat very well. And he has virtually no chance of opening the season in Baltimore because of the number of pitchers the team will bring north.
Posted by: Larry Stickler | March 27, 2009 6:04 PM
Pete, did Nick Markakis and his wife become parents yet? Boy or girl?
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Pete's reply: Yes, Nick and Christina Markakis had a boy a couple of weeks ago.
Posted by: Larry Stickler | March 27, 2009 6:08 PM
So the Washington Nationals, with maybe three discernible major league players, and the Mariners, who lost 101 games last year, got better odds than us to win the World Series? Sheesh
Posted by: Matt Simantel | March 27, 2009 6:08 PM
They must have seen Guthrie pitch today... WS odds are now 175-1 and the pennant is 70-1.
Posted by: A Fan with delusions of Grandeur | March 27, 2009 6:25 PM
They must have seen Guthrie pitch today... WS odds are now 175-1 and the pennant is 70-1.
Posted by: A Fan with delusions of Grandeur | March 27, 2009 6:25 PM
I think Scott is a nice player, but the way people talk about him, it's as if he is a star. He will get his ABs, as will Ty and Huff, but to give up on Pie because he hasn't lit up FL, is silly. This is the time to see what this kid can do, and if he fails then so be it. I still would like to see Montanez tear up AAA because I have a feeling he wont come close to replicating his 08 #s.
Pete, do you think given that we could be in for a crazy year in terms of the SPs, that having guys like Baez, Hendrickson and Bass, could be huge assets in the BP? They all can go more than 2 innings and that's huge because Walker, Sherrill, Ray and JJ (I think they will be careful with him) are going to be 1 inning guys. I think those 7 men should be the guys in the BP. No need to make Dave's job tougher than it is, by having a 3 man bench.
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Pete's reply: I really don't know. It's pretty hard to put a happy face on things right now.
Posted by: Birdland Todd | March 27, 2009 6:28 PM
Another embarrassment for a dysfunctional organization.
"The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox are refusing to play minor league games at the Orioles' Twin Lakes Park in Sarasota due to poor field conditions. The Orioles minor leaguers have been playing their games on the road"
A team that hasn't fixed their spring training issue in 10+ years makes you wonder if they are capable of fixing, or even caring, about anything.
Obviously unless they bring up some young SP this year, this will easily be another 90+ loss season. Teams get worn down when they are always down 3+ runs early in games.
Posted by: rich | March 27, 2009 7:30 PM
Pete, I like Markakis to improve his home run total this season. I think 24 is very reachable for him.
B-Rob is a lock for 40 steals if he stays healthy. I think he's going to have a very nice year overall.
And while I don't necessarily expect Huff to duplicate last year's homer totals, I do think he should hit anywhere from the mid to high 20s.
I just read Jeff Zrebiec's piece on Lou Montanez, which ends:
"I think at the end of the day, I just want the best players to be on the team, the guys that earn it," Montanez said. "Trembley always said that. He's fair with everybody. If I don't earn it, I'd go as happy as I can be to Triple-A."
Montanez has outplayed Felix Pie not only hugely at the plate, but also in the field (supposedly Pie's stong suit). In other words, Lou's earned a place on the 25 man roster. No reasonable person can deny this.
Unfortunately, this probably isn't Dave Trembley's call; he has little or no say in the matter (aside from recommending), even though in theory he awards position according to merit. And even if on paper he does make out the roster, in certain instances he's merely doing what he's told. (Such as: "Dave, Matt Wieters is starting the season in Norfolk. Period. Forget about him. Yes, we all know that he's big league ready right now, but you can't have him yet. Hope you understand.")
Equally unfortunate is how Andy MacPhail is locked into Pie, no matter what. This is the "bad Andy" coming out; it's almost like: "Forget how terrible Pie is going to make the team, I made the trade and we're going to stick with it, despite the fact that Montanez is playing circles around Pie. I mean it's a business, after all. I got the green light from Peter Angelos to dump Garrett Olson and now I need to prove that it was the right thing to do." (Or upper management claptrap to that effect.)
And despite how harsh this all sounds, I am, overall, still a supporter of what most of MacPhail's done for the team. I didn't even have a problem with the Olson for Pie deal when it was made, but it clearly isn't working out.
Rather than worry about Pie being out of options, the O's simply should release him, pick him up again when no other team shows and interest and then send him down to Norfolk where he can work on his game.
The fact of the matter is that when you have a starting rotation being held together with duct tape like the O's, you'd better have some guys who can hit, because you're going to need all the runs you can get. Yes, I'm sure the O's pitchers could benefit from Felix's play in left, once he gets settled in (though frankly he's looked pretty awful this spring), but is it worth it if he can't hit a lick? Terry Crowley doesn't seem to be getting anywhere with him and he's likely going to struggle to hit his weight. And despite his plus speed, he's only a so-so baserunner, so the trade-off is hardly worth it.
Pie a starting outfielder for a major league team? Late inning defensive replacement and pinch baserunner is more like it.
Lou, if you're reading this, there are many O's fans who want you to be there at Camden Yards where you belong. I know you'll handle the demotion professionally, but, dude, you're getting ripped off big time! Hang in there, your day will come!
P.S. I hope sanity prevails with Orioles management and Montanez is given the chance he rightly deserves, but I'm not holding my breath. Watch, they'll rationalize and say that he had a terrific season in Double-A in 2008, impressed when he was called up to the big club later in the year and has done well this spring, but he could stand to work on his outfield play down in Norfolk. (Right. Like Pie has nothing to work on. Nothing except his overall game that is! LOL)
Posted by: Ken Francis | March 27, 2009 9:52 PM
Pete,
You've seen more of starting rotation than anyone, can you argue with the numbers? I kinda wish they used the mercy rule in MLB like in the WBC! Its just unfortunate that Andy didn't pursue some middle of road starters like Mike Hampton or Odalis Perez or at this point Pedro Martinez as getting 5 decent innings out of our starters will take a miracle! Letting the baby birds mature and develop is the right thing to do but so was getting some decent pitching to bridge the gap! Look for Koji to do well the first time around and then head south too!
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Pete's reply: It's a tough call. I was in favor of picking up a couple of better guys if the price was within reason, but it was a weird market and the guys everybody was talking about are all hurt now anyway. MacPhail obviously does not want to divert any attention or resources away from the team blossoming in 2010 and 2011. He's willing to take the heat for that.
Posted by: Keith Rowe | March 27, 2009 11:04 PM
How about the O's O/U on wins at 72.5? I was in Vegas last week hoping to get the over at 68 or 69. But 72.5 seems high. With the retreads in the rotation, I think that might be unreachable.
I'll take the under on Huff, but the over on Nick. I have no idea on BRob.
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Pete's reply: Yep, at this point I'd have to go under 72.5. Sad to say.
Posted by: Matt | March 28, 2009 12:25 AM
I'm picking the Red Sox to win this year,they are a a more balanced team.
Those over an unders are tough on the O's but I'll have to go with under on all three.
Posted by: John | March 28, 2009 3:59 AM
Ken Francis. You are right on the money about McPhail's 'fascination' with Pie; I said basically the same thing in another thread/post. I know we are in a rebuilding mode but the O's should be sending out the message that we field the best players. Pie has been brutal throughout the spring and his whole career so goodbye already! It's not as if we gave up much in Olsen to get him so time to give up on the ill-fated Pie 'experiment'. Trembley's hands are tied here and what we the fans are left with is a non-productive starting OF, all because of McPhail's ego.
Posted by: TerryP | March 28, 2009 9:03 AM
Have not seen Pie play at all yet. But I can say Jones and Markakis both did not earn a spot on the team untill being given a chance. Markakis stunk up the joint for almost a half year before showing signs that he belongs. Jones Stunk it up for more than half the season and we did not run him off the roster.
Pie needs time to prove (or not prove) that he belongs. Does he not get the same chance we gave Nick and Adam?
Building the team for the future, means sacrifice now, and it seems Montanez may not fit the future LF. Plus if he can hit at AAA once he gets there, he can prove that he belongs. He was the cubs #1 pick, 3 overall in 2000. (that draft appers to have been bad for almost all teams)
But saying all that, Montanez is being forced out over Pie being here.
Kill AAA pitching and he will get a chance or traded (also being a chance)
Posted by: Doug M | March 28, 2009 12:00 PM