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February 15, 2009

Orioles: The starting five

We're about two hours into spring training and the writers already are arguing amongst ourselves about the projected starting rotation, which isn't easy to project when there really are only two guys in it.

Obviously Jeremy Guthrie is set and the Orioles have committed to Japanese pitcher Koji Uehara, even though a lot of major league teams projected him as a reliever. Everybody is assuming left-hander Mark Hendrickson will be in the mix -- which is probably a fair assumption -- but there are at least 12 pitchers (including non-roster guys) vying for the remaining three spots.

Early predictions are a tricky business, as evidenced by my inclusion of Braden Looper in my first projected rotation a few weeks ago. Haven't seen Braden around the clubhouse, so I guess he missed his chance. I'll replace him with Rich Hill, which isn't exactly a stretch, though there's plenty of reason to wonder if he can rebound from last year's injury issues and control problems.

So here's my new projected starting rotation:

Jeremy Guthrie
Koji Uehara
Rich Hill
David Pauley
Mark Hendrickson

What's yours?

Posted by Peter Schmuck at 10:53 AM | | Comments (62)
Categories: Just baseball
        

Comments

Jeremy Guthrie
Koji Uehara
Rich Hill
Hayden Penn
Chris Waters

I think all of yours are right but I could see either Penn and Parrish in the mix. Penn deserves a shot since he came through are system and Parrish was pretty much undefeated in Triple A last year so that has to say something.

Guthrie
Uehara
Hill
Penn
Liz

Sometime in May, Patton gets called up and Liz either gets sent down or shifted to the bullpen, where his stuff is best utilized. Unless he implodes in the spring, I can't see them not giving Penn one more chance.

Guthrie
Hill
Uehara
Pauley/Hennessey
Penn

............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Hey, Birdman, no hedging on the fourth starter.

I agree with your starting five 100%.
I have felt that way since we acquired Rich Hill. I like having 2 lefties in the rotation and both Hill and Hendrickson have experience as starters in the bigs.
But... it wouldn't surprise me if Hayden Penn winds up in the rotation and Hendrickson goes to the bullpen either.

Peter,

No room for Penn or Baez (not Joan)?

Also what is your take on Nolan Reimold and ow they got Pie over him?

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I like it because they'll have a year to discover Pie and if he doesn't pan out, Reimold is still in development.

Do you have Hayden Penn coming out of the bullpen, or is he gonna have to pass through waivers? I happen to like your projection - I think Pauley will be the most pleasant surprise of the pitching crew this year - but I also am a little concerned about the glut of mediocre arms that may not distinguish themselves as being that much better (or worse) than the others around them.

If that rotation holds, and the O's break camp with 12 pitchers, the bullpen might look like:

Penn
Sarfate
Walker
Johnson
Sherrill
Ray

That leaves one spot. Danys Baez, Brian Bass, Brad Hennessy, Kam Mickolio, Matt Albers... all vying for that one spot. (Did I miss someone? Probably)

What are the odds that Baez could get sent packing?

............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Penn in the bullpen. I don't know what to think yet on Baez.

Do you have Hayden Penn coming out of the bullpen, or is he gonna have to pass through waivers? I happen to like your projection - I think Pauley will be the most pleasant surprise of the pitching crew this year - but I also am a little concerned about the glut of mediocre arms that may not distinguish themselves as being that much better (or worse) than the others around them.

If that rotation holds, and the O's break camp with 12 pitchers, the bullpen might look like:

Penn
Sarfate
Walker
Johnson
Sherrill
Ray

That leaves one spot. Danys Baez, Brian Bass, Brad Hennessy, Kam Mickolio, Matt Albers... all vying for that one spot. (Did I miss someone? Probably)

What are the odds that Baez could get sent packing?

Guthrie
Uehara
Rich Hill
David Pauley
Haydn Penn

All guys with lots of upside. Everything for the next couple of years depends on young starters. We
ve got good offense, good bullpen; but who knows what he have in starters?

I'm hopeing Penn or Albers earn a spot over Hedrickson.

Looking at your list I find myself - surprisingly - not horrified. Besides Pauley, whom I don't know much about, the other four could be OK with an upgraded defense behind them. As a bridge to better, younger pitchers to come for a team that will be lucky to finish .500 I think Andy's done a nice job.

Starters:
Guthrie
Uehara
Hill
Albers
Pauley

Long-relievers:
Hendrickson
Waters

Middle-relievers:
Penn
Baez
Walker
Johnson

Closer:
Sherrill

No way Hendrickson is in the rotation unless Hill flops. I'll go
Guthrie
Uehara
Hill
Pauley
Albers

Patton and Liz will be in the rotation by May. When it's all said and done, Parrish,Penn,Hendrickson,Baez and Tillman will all make at least 1 start before the year ends. It's going to be ugly.

I'll go with

Jeremy Guthrie
Koji Uehara
Matt Albers
Rich Hill
David Pauley

Albers made 2 spot starts last year. both were quality starts. He went 1-1.

I hope Hendrickson can be one of the long men. He fits better there, but the O's may not have that luxury.

I think that Penn is ready to go. I've seen him in the majors and I there is something there. Perhaps I am just over optimistic, but what the hey, it's spring training.

Jeremy Guthrie
Koji Uehara
Rich Hill
David Pauley
Hayden Penn

They're all wild cards after Guthrie. I don't see how Liz doesn't get a shot. Unless they are going to make him a reliever, I say put him in there and let him pitch. I'd rather see him getting a shot than a (never) has been like Hendrickson. I know Pauley and Hill are out of options, but if Albers or Patton shine in spring training, I wouldn't shy away from giving the spots to them. Unfortunately I think Albers' decision not to have surgery is going to come back to haunt. Has anyone ever really come back from this type of injury without surgery? I don't see how he can be a reliever under those circumstances either. More likely to be able to cope with a regular schedule.

The Orioles come North with a 12 man staff of:

Guthrie, Uehara, Hill, Liz, Albers

Sherrill
Ray
Johnson
Hendrickson
Sarfate
Penn
Pauley

Baez, and Walker both traded or released prior to Opening Day.

Pete,

When I read the headline for your blog, I thought you meant for the team's spring basketball team. I was already nominating Hendrickson, Mickolio and Tillman. Guthrie could probably play point guard, and maybe Hill can learn the shooting guard position.

- Dean

Ouch !

Ugly...


Good thing this season "isn't about wins and losses"

Pete- I agree with your first 4, but I like Chris Waters as the dark horse to hold down that 5th spot. I think Hendrickson would like to be in the bullpen (isn't that really what they got him for?), and unless Trembley can't come up with another starter, that's where he'll be. After all, a weak rotation means lots of innings for the bullpen, so long and middle relievers are probably more important here than anywhere else right now.

Jeremy
Rich
Koji
David Pauley
Brad Hennessey

Jeremy Guthrie
Koji Uehara
Rich Hill
Chris Waters
David Pauley

I sure hope Hendrickson works out of the bullpen. His ERA is roughly three runs lower as a reliever vs. as a starter. Mainly cause he doesn't handle the RHB as well as the LHB. He's only given up 18 homeruns to LHB in his career. And I would sure love to see someone other than Jamie Walker coming in to face Carlos Pena in the late innings.

You're probably right with those five. I would say the one wild card could be Dennis Sarfate. Even though he's mostly viewed as a bullpen guy, he's got some pretty great stuff.

Guthrie's a lock as well as Uehara. They didn't bring him over from Japan for 10 million plus incentives to be a reliever. Hill is a almost definate if he throws strikes. It's also a little scary though how many HRs this guy gives up. Both at the major and minor league levels he's averaged 1 every 6 to 7 innings. If I get any tickets out in left field this year when he's pitching, I'm bringing a helmut.

Baez gets a spot if he is healthy the way he says he is. There are 6 million reasons to give him the nod in a close competition, and while he isn't the greatest pitcher around, there aren't any I'd expect to be much better on the roster at the moment.

Since he's still young and out of options, the 5 spot goes to Penn if he can step up and claim it. If he can't it's likely to be Pauley or Bass. I don't think AM brought Hendrickson over to start.

I actually agree with your rotation here Pete. Based on Pauley's numbers in Pawtucket last year, you can't just let him walk away.There's really no room in the bullpen for Hendrickson and he's fine as a starter starting the year out.You have to give Hill 10 starts to see if he can turn his fortunes around under Kranny and Dunn. I;m just glad I don't have to endure DCab every 5 days anymore. In any event the last 3 spots in the rotation are up for grabs as the season wears on and hopefully the real prospects will start making their way up.

I pretty much agree with you - except for one -

Hendrickson will be in the 'pen - and pick a darkhorse - Hennessey

Starters:
1. Guthrie
2. Uehara
3. Hill
4. Albers
5. Pauley

Long Relief:
1. Hendrickson
2. Penn

Middle:
1. Walker
2. Sarfate

Set Up:
1. Ray
2. Johnson

Closer: Sherrill

Liz starts in the minors and gets moved into the bullpen later in the season. Waters joins Liz at Norfolk is the replacement in the rotation if theres and injury. Patton starts proubally in Bowie but quickly jumps to Norfolk. Baez cut because he sucked to begin with.

Guthrie
Uehara
Hill
Penn
Albers or Liz

Not that this is the question, but my prediction is that whatever the starting five is at the beginning of the season, by the end of May the rotation will be 60% different than at the start of the season.

Guthrie
Uehara
Hill
Pauley
Hennessey

Patton comes in June/July as he gets his arm back to strength after strong Bowie and Norfolk starts, and takes Hennessey's spot, Patton does very well and keeps as a solid 4, the remainder of this season, and may looks to be a good starter in the future.

Guthrie,Parrish,Uehara,Hill,JOHNSON,,Set JJ FREE Let's SEE what he can BE!

Jeremy Guthrie
Koji Uehara
Rich Hill
Mark Hendrickson
Chris Waters

Gutrie
Uehara
Hill
Parrish
Hendrickson

LR -
Pauley
Penn

MR -
Walker
Hoey

Setup -
Johnson
Ray

Closer -
Sherrill

Here's my starting 5:

1) Guthrie - more a #2 guy but is our current staff Ace.

2) Uehara - most ball clubs thought of him as a middle reliever but realistically could be a #4 or #5 guy on most other teams.

3) Hill - will be given every chance to bounce back since he's out of options and has a lot of semi-proven talent.

4) Patton - surgery will prove to have been a good decision for him.

5) Penn - similar to Hill, will get every opportunity to blow it.

Long Relievers

Albers (Waters if Albers doesn't make it out of spring training) & Hendrickson
Pauley

Middle Relievers

Sarfate
Walker

Set up

Johnson & Ray & Sherrill

Closer

Sherrill & Ray

Palmer
Flanagan
McGregor
Stone
Martinez

Rotation:

Guthrie
Uehara
Hill
Hendrickson
Albers

Long Men:

Penn
Pauley (we'll need a couple, with this rotation)

Middle Relief:

Baez
Walker
Sarfate

Setup:

Johnson

Closers:

A-Ray
B-Sherrill


Hey Pete...if someone gets 'em all right, are you flying them down for the home opener? ;)

Here is the starters
Guthrie
Uheara
Hill
Hendrickson
Patton

Bullpen
Sherril
Ray
Johnson
Albers
Sarfate
Walker
Pauley
Baez

Let me throw a curveball. I think one of the rookies actually step up in ST and show that they are ready.6 starters, 7 relievers. Sorry Lou Montenez

guthrie
hill
bergesen
koji
pauley
patton

relievers
sarfate
ray
sherrill
hendrickson
johnson
albers
liz

Walker ,Baez, gone
penn do not clear waivers and will be gone

If Hendrickson is in the starting five then the O's may be in for a long season in my opinion.
I would say
Jeremy Guthrie
Koji Uehara
Rich Hill
David Pauley
John Parrish

Brian Holton
Todd Froewirth
Kurt Ainsworth
Mark Thurmond
Chris Myers

Chuck McElroy closer

Guthrie
Uehara
Hill
Patton (I really want to see what he's got and I think he has a good of a chance as anyone else to make it)
Hendrickson

I'm betting Albers stays in the bullpen but would not be shocked if Liz was called up.

1)Guthrie
2)Koji
3)Hill
4)Pauley
5)Penn

Henderickson will be a long man along with Hennesey.

Sarfate,Ray and Walker will be 7th inning guys. Jim Johson will pitch the 8th and Sherrill closes until we're sure Ray is 100% and then they flip flop.

Albers, Liz, and Patton all have options left so you let those guys go to Norfolk for the meantime and give the guys with no options a chance to pitch everyday.

1. Guthrie
2. Uehara
3. Hennessey
4. Pauley
5. Hill

Hayden Penn will end up on the DL just like every other time he is set to be on the 25 man roster.

BP (stands for Bullpen or Batting Practice)
LR- Hendrickson
MR/LR- Albers
MR/LR- Sarfate
Situational L- Sherrill
SU- Johnson
Clo- Ray

Ray is the better choice at closer. The whole league had Sherrill figured out by the end of the season. Only a 6 man rotation as team has Moeller, Gomez, Wigginton, & Freel on the bench.

Interesting point on 6 man rotation, Greg.

Pete: a 6 man rotation for a whole season has been rumored about for years. Has the media asked Trembley or the organization about it as a possibility? Given the dirth of talent, the desire to showcase/provide opportunities, and the desire to limit pitch counts, seems like something the O's might consider more than other organizations this year. 99 to 1 it doesn't happen, but...

ROTATION (assuming 5, cause 6 is crazy)

Guthrie
Koji
Hill
Liz
Patton

LONG
Penn
Hendrickson
Sarfate

Middle
Walker
Johnson
Sherill
Albers

Closer
Ray

..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: So, are you going to have a 13 or 14-man pitching staff? If you were going to reinvent the wheel, it would make more sense to condense the rotation and reduce the innings pitched so you get more out of your best pitchers.

Guthrie
Uehara
Bergesen
Waters
Hendrickson

pete,
amongst is not proper grammar.
the word is among,shame on you!

.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: True, but it's a blog and it's the way I would have said it in a conversation, so it just came out that way.

After an incredible spring, Penn is named the opening day starter, but struck by lightening while walking to the mound. He spends the year at AAA rehabbing, so he doesn't have to pass through wavers.

Pete,

I'm hoping the staff shakes out as:

Guthrie
Uehara
Hill
Pauley
Penn

And the relievers:

Long Relief:
Hendrickson
Baez

Middle Relief:
Sarfate
Parrish
Johnson

Set Up:
Ray

Closer:
Sherrill

And 3 up from AAA sometime this 1st half:
Hennessey
Waters
Albers (just don't trust that labrum tear)

I let Patton get back into shape with stops in AA & AAA for season. And I go with Liz at AAA focusing on closing strictly.

lemme break it down

STARTERS:
Guthrie
Uehara
Pauley
Hennessey
Hill

Bullpen:
Johnson
ray
Sherril

Hendrickson
simon
parrish
baez

1. Ponson
2. Traschel
3. Wade Townsend
4. Bruce Chen
5. Damion Moss

oh wait this years pitchers lol i thouhgt you meant an all scrub team

i gurantee this is the starting five, remember the orioles still wanna go young so i dont hendrickson or parrish will start at least not at begining of season

1.Guthrie
2.Koji
3.Hill
4.Pauley
5.Penn
the bullpen is a little tougher but i think ill get that correct too, waters will not be in majors this year and the orioles will take it slow with patton so hell be in triple A. i think ablers will show he still has it so this is bullpen
Albers
Hendricksen
Sarfate
Walker
Johnson
Sherrill
Ray
there ya go people your "09" orioles pitching staff =)

Guthrie
Uehara
Baez
Parrish
Pauley

How can this guestimate be wrong???

1) Jeremy Guthrie

2) Koji Uehara

3) Rich Hill

4) David Pauley

5) Brian Bass

Pete, I have no idea why I am so high on Bass, but he looked like he was in total control in all his starts till he ran out of gas, which makes sense since he was a reliever, but his poise was greater than Liz, Olson, etc., which isn't very common in a young man switching to SP.

Opening Day Starting 5:

1) Guthrie
2) Hill/Hendrickson/Waters
3) Uehara/PauleyBaez
4) Parrish/Hendrickson/Waters
5) Penn/Pauley/Baez

If Hill, Uehara, Parrish and Penn have good springs and stay healthy then I think they will be the starters for first couple of months. If a lefthander(Hill or Parrish) has a bad spring then I think Hendrickson gets th nod over Waters. If a righthander(Uehara or Penn) has a bad spring then I think Pauley will get the nod over Baez. But could all change if MacPhail decides he needs to strenghten the rotation thru a trade before April 6.

Guthrie
Uehara
Hill
Baez
Parrish

Jeremy Guthrie
Koji Uehara
David Pauley
Rich Hill
Hayden Penn

Palmer
McNally
Cuellar
Alexander
Hardin

Oh wait.......I'm sorry, I was dreaming.

Spiffy
Jiffy
Zippy
Chippy
Zeppo

Joe Flacco
Kyle Boller
Steve McNair
Troy Smith
Anthony Wright
Jeff Blake
Chris Redman
Elvis Grbac
Randall Cunningham
Tony Banks
Trent Dilfer
Stoney Case
Scott Mitchell
Jim Harbaugh
Eric Zeier
Vinny Testaverde

Same town - same philosophy! Throw (pun intended) as much spaghetti against the wall to see what sticks.

not much love for Simon and Bass, I like to see some dark horses make it, not the same old nags(walker,baez)


Let's see.....

1. Guthrie
2 thru 5 No major league starters available. (crapshoot)

Relief

Sherril, Ray, Johnson, Albers, Sarfate, Parrish, Hendrickson


Jim Palmer
Mike Flanagan
Mike Mussina
Scott McGregor
Scott Erickson

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About Peter Schmuck
Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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