Peter,
The orioles need to get creative with some of these contracts. Tell Sheets they will give him a one year contract with incentives for games started. Also include one year options for 2010 and 2011 if he hits those goals. Say if he pitches 30 games we will give him $12 Million and make his option years more gauranteed.What do you think?

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Pete's reply: I think you should be a GM.

The O's shouldn't waste a roster spot on Baez, but I can think of $6 million reasons why they will.

Wow. Just...wow.

Whew. It's even scarier when you flesh out that rotation and put it to paper like that. What's the old baseball adage-- "everybody wins 60, and everybody loses 60, and it's what you do withe the other 42 that counts"? I think I have a good idea what the O's are gonna do with the other 42. Like the pilot says before napalming the tree line in Apocalypse Now, "Everybody get your head down. This is going to be a big one".

Peter,

Speaking of the 1993 All Star Game...

What do you think will happen first:

The Orioles make the playoffs or Camden Yards hosts another All Star Game?

After the 2 New York Stadiums open there can't be many more new stadiums on the horizon.

Or does Baltimore only get to host the game one time per stadium?

I am currently projecting the 2009 pitching staff as:

Guthrie, Uehara, Hendrickson, Liz, Albers

Sherrill, Ray, Johnson, Walker, Sarfate, Penn, Pauley

With Bergesen, Hernandez, Tillman, Berken, Mickolio, Hoey, McCrory, Patton, Arrieta, Matusz all arms that could help the staff at differing times during 2009.

I see Baez being shown to a lot of teams in Spring Training, and if they can not trade him - I believe he will be released.

I think Burres, Hennessey, Waters, Simon, Bass are non-options that should not come close to making the roster.

J-O-H-N-S-O-N!!!!!!! Remember the guy that Palmer was raving @ last summer? A potential high end fixture in the rotation for ten years? Or another footnote in O's history of another promising pitcher whose arm was blown out as an '8th inning guy' for 5 more wins in a sub 500 season.....

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Pete's reply: You left out "or a guy who was a very successful reliever who got his arm blown out because the fans wanted him to be a starter." I guess it's all about how you look at it.

Pete--I agree with you on how the rotation currently shapes up. Why don't the Birds spend the money to put Jon Garland in the rotation?

Sure, we're looking for Matusz, Arrieta, and Tillman down the line. But remembering the rave reviews and expectations we had for Loewen and Cabrera, why won't the Orioles make a move now to put another pretty decent pitcher into the rotation?

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Pete's reply: I can think of about 10 million reasons a year on Garland, but I hope they figure something out.

Hayden Penn is not a major leaguer. The team's not going to make the playoffs this year, so they can afford to get clobbered in 6-10 starts of his to prove this to themselves.

Check out Baseball Prosectus' Top 11 Orioles Prospects, issued today. Great hope for the O's to have one of the best rotations in the majors in about 2011. After putting up with the last decade, I can wait that long.

Pete, I think you and Jeff left out an important candidate, Matt Albers. Assuming he's healthy, he'd be in the mix, right?

I'd be a bit concerned at the thought of having Penn in the rotation. Is he even good enough at this point to make the staff? He had a forgettable season at Norfolk last year (6-7, 4.79 in 21 games) and his record pitching for the parent team is just horrendous (3-6, 9.31 in 14 games).

Understand, I'm not saying he lacks potential, just that he's never stayed healthy enough to start realizing it. And remember, he doesn't turn 25 until after the season, so it's not like he needs to be rushed.

Yes, the team likely won't contend this season, but it's still important to put the best players out on the field and strive for a .500 season. Although Penn has long been hailed as a top pitching prospect, I think it's wrong to let him take up a roster spot to use as his personal learning curve. The fan's deserve better.

Sure, if he wows everyone in spring training, then maybe the team could give him a shot, but there shouldn't be a sense of urgency about him making the club. Given his injury history, better he be viewed like some of the Orioles' younger arms, such as Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz, and be allowed to mature down in the minors another year or so.

As for a lefty in the rotation, I find Waters a more intriguing choice than Hendrickson, since he had two of the best starts of any Oriole. Of course, Hendrickson is the veteran, so it's a reasonable assumption you make. I just hope it isn't preordained and others get a fair shot.

I think we'd better hope for a late acquisition, because aside from Guthrie and Koji I'm not feeling it for the options you set forth. But that's what we've got, what we're stuck with. Scary, no?

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Pete's reply: Scary indeed. Albers will be in the mix, but I'm guessing he ends up in the bullpen.

Regarding pitching Free Agents. In my opinion, Andy will not sign any that require us to give up a draft pick. I beleive that elinimnates Sheets, Garland and Perez. The O's plan calls for building with top draft picks and an occasional sleeper from the higher rounds. Quality FA's only are bought once the O's are HIGHLY competitive. Pete, can you confirm the loss of draft picks from a Graland or Sheets signing?

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Pete's reply: Sheets is a Type-A and Garland is a Type-B. If the Orioles signed Sheets, they would give up their second-round draft choice in June. If they sign Garland, the Angels get a supplemental pick.

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Anyway you slice it, that's one impressive starting 5. Dam, If only we had that group last year.

Pete, do you think the Club will also take it slow on Albers?

If they start him on the 15-day DL to help build up arm strength in extended, Norfolk, Bowie, wherever, it allows them to figure something out with their rotation/pen and evaluate guys out of options an extra 2 weeks. This way, if Penn and/or Pauley are awful in Spring Training, they'll have an extra 2 weeks to pull themselves together or confirm to the organization it's worth the risk of losing them by DFA'ing them or putting them on waivers, or whatever it is now.

Is this a realistic option?

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Pete's reply: Sure, but spring training is seven weeks long this year, so there is plenty of time to bring him along if he's healthy. If he's not, it might not matter since he would probably have to have surgery to clean up that sore shoulder.

Johnson had NO ARM PROBLEMS when utilized strictly as a starter in the minors (structured workouts associated with scheduled starts)...The 8th inning guy gets more wear and tear than the closer,because he also pitches in close games when THEY ARE BEHIND! Evidently the O's think being a starter is less stressful than being a reliever by there decision to work ALBERS only as a STARTER!!

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Pete's reply: Don't get excited. I'm sure it might seem like an eighth-inning guy gets more wear and tear, but my experience has been that starters have far more arm problems than setup guys. And the chance of injury increases either way when pitchers change roles.

"Barring a skateboarding accident or something" nice lol

I really hope Patton and Tillman are not rushed up here, I really see no reason to call them up this year, unless they put up just straight ridiculous numbers in the minors. If the goals been 2010, why risk it for 2009. I just hope we lose less than 100...and Tex goes 0-4 with 4ks on opening day

Peter,

I just saw something in the Denver Post that the Orioles have some interest in Josh Fogg.

Have you heard anything regarding him. Apparently the Rockies are the only ones with an offer to him, a minor league deal...which is probably all he deserves at this point.

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Pete's reply: I've heard his name, but don't have any idea whether that means he is under serious consideration.

I've tried to remain fairly positive with the O's. But it seems to me that the FO and fans are putting alot of hope in the Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta triumverate to rescue the rotation in a couple years. Just remember that for any organization it would be rare for all 3 to be successful (ie. the Mets with Isringhausen, Wilson and Pulsipher). One way or another I think we will need to sign a free agent starter or two for the long-term.

Also, sorry if this is a repeat question, but i cant find the answer. When is Fanfest? I have looked everywhere, but cant find the date.

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Pete's reply: I believe FanFest will again take place in conjunction with the final preseason workout on the weekend before Opening Day.

Jim Johnson had a shot as a starter in the majors. He stunk. As a reliever he is almost lights out because he can put everything he has into every pitch, sorta like Papelbon. He was a starter too and they decided to keep him as a reliever when he got up here because they knew he wouldn't cut it as a starter in the majors. Joba made the transition, but the jury is still out on him being a valuable starter or if he will be forced to go back to the bullpen.
And I don't think Baez will be released. I honestly think he will bounce back and have a good enough season to be traded at the deadline for a half-decent prospect.

Pete, are the O's down on Looper? I know he and Garland were the two guys they had the most interest in at the start of free agency.

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Pete's reply: I wouldn't be surprised, but Garland is also a Type-B who requires no direct compensation from the O's even though he was offered arbitration by the Angels. Looper's Type-B status is irrelevant because he was not offered arbitration.

Pete. What are your thoughts aboud Randy Wolf? I believe Houston took a 28 mill/3 yr deal off the table so maybe he can fill a spot at a decent price.
As far as Baez, I was one of his harshest critics in '07 but he later was found to have arm trouble so I guess he should get some kind of pass(plus the O's likely recovered some of their 'bad' investment via insurance payments). Still, I can't see this guy as a bona fide starter, even in our shaky rotation. I say give him every opportunity to pitch in spring training and maybe he can catch on as a middle-reliever. If he still can't get anyone out, then by all means cut our losses and release him. If he can't make our staff then it's pretty well the end of the line for him or anyone else...

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Pete's reply: As I've said many times, I'll take any of the top remaining starters, but I don't think the Orioles are likely to be competitive for Wolf. If his price comes down, he'll have his choice of a lot of teams.

Is Jim Johnson out for some extended time? I only remember him having shoulder inflammation, so they were being cautious, and shut him down for the remainder of the year. Am i missing something?

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Pete's reply: No, I'm pretty sure he'll be ready to go.

From Saturday, You are even quoted!

More Spring Training:

http://www.news-press.com/article/20090124/SPORTS/901250383/1010/SPORTS?GID=G2xzyh0nJeIm3HlmIzSMbhGkeerC5VdmQ+0h7mn5wNI%3D

or

http://tinyurl.com/as7sa5

Pete:
They don't really play defense in the NHL All-Star Game. The reason: the players don't want to get hurt.

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Pete's reply: I know that. There's no checking. It's just a skate-a-thon. I was joking around.

Pete-

In all your years covering MLB, have you ever seen a team with this many question marks regarding starting pitchers this close to spring training? Sorta makes me nervous with so many holes yet to be legitimately filled...

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Pete's reply: I do not remember covering a team with this much uncertainty in the rotation, but I'm sure there are plenty of struggling teams who have gone in with only one or two set starters.

Jimbo..back up your statement 'Johnson had a chance to start and he stunk' Dates and numbers please...

Should we be getting excited about Penn or do you think he is just another "warm body?"

Glad that Salazar cleared waivers... He didnt do too badly last year with the parent club so I dont understand why everyone is down on him. He is not Tex but any means but could hit quite a few HRs this year if he gets the playing time.

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Pete's reply: Andy proved me wrong again. He obviously felt Salazar would clear waivers. I didn't. The Orioles, as a result, were able to preserve a pitcher.

What about Brad Hennessey. He is much better than the others and can take the spot of Mark Hendrickson so Hendrickson can be the swingman.

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Pete's reply: He's in the mix, but my point was about Hendrickson being the most viable left-hander. Hennessey is a right-hander.

No way we would sign fogg. He is only comfortable in London and San Francisco and you waste an extra spot on the 40 man because of his valet Passepartout. Besides, no one ever heard from him again after his first 80 days. Now his cousin Smog might be more attractive as he plays well in most stops in the major leagues.

Jimbo- I got tired of waiting for uto back up your statements of Johnson's failed opportunities as a starter...So I did the research myself......ONE CAREER START in 2006....From now on,'just the facts ma'am'......

Pete, I'm a lifelong O's fan and the rotation you propose makes me very ill. The O's should take a flier with incentives on Sheets and round out the rotaion with Albers and Walters. Hendrickson has proven he's barely servicable regardless of his role. Walters is much younger and at times last year was very effective-even spectacular.

If Patton is healthy give him a shot but the O's simply cannot go into the season with the rotation you suggested without completely discouraging the fan base. If they keep Weiters in the minors, what's the reason anyone would want to engage with the team with that rotation?

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Pete's reply: I don't think they'll keep Wieters in the minors for more than a couple of months. If you really feel ill looking at that rotation, I would advise you to put down newspapers before spring training starts.

The Orioles should start thinking four man rotation and playing National league style baseball. Next, they have improved the outfield with Pie and they have improved the infield with a shortstop--if there is any pitching improvement, the Orioles will better than last year. They should have more wins and still finish last.