Quiet winter is no coincidence
The market is starting to heat up around baseball, but it's not what you think. The headlines are filled not with record-breaking free-agent deals, but with reports of marginal players signing one-year contracts.
The most recent exception is the deal agreed to by American League MVP Dustin Pedroia, who got six years and $40.5 million, but even that is being viewed in some quarters as a sign that the national recession is having an effect on the offseason baseball economy. It's a nice lifetime security type of deal for Pedroia, based on his service time and the fact that he won't be a free agent any time soon, but it might also be a sign of more conservative times.
That doesn't mean Mark Teixeira is going to settle for short money, of course, but it probably does mean that the second tier of free agents -- the guys behind Teixeira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett -- might find it a little harder to break the bank. We'll have a better feel during and after the winter meetings next week. If nobody makes a big splash there, you'll know that the free-agent market is depressed.
While we're on the subject of the winter meetings, I'll be there along with Orioles beat writer Jeff Zrebiec, and hope to hit the ground -- and the blog -- running late Sunday in Las Vegas, though you'll have to forgive me if I watch the Ravens/Redskins game that night, too.
I'll be doing frequent blog updates all day Monday through Thursday on the Orioles and other baseball news. I know you feel guilty about sneaking a peek when you're supposed to be working, but since it's the winter meetings, I think your boss will understand if you take a break every half hour or so to click on The Schmuck Stops Here. Don't tell your boss, of course, because he'll be busy doing the same thing and won't want to be bothered.






Comments
I hope thier are some cameras present, I want to see proof of you running.
Posted by: Jeff V. | December 4, 2008 10:34 AM
I doubt the economic troubles will affect free agency this year. If you look at how finance and economics work, what is happening now will take at least 6-12 months to trickle into the pockets of baseball's front office. The credit crunch was only starting during the 2008 season and so owners still took in a reasonably good cash collection.
The main crash occured from September onwards, so I expect that 2009 will be a more conservative year in terms of spending.
If second tier players are not getting huge money I think it is more likely due to owners and GMs finally realizing that players with a 10-10 record and an inflated 4.5 ERA or 20 HRs, a 260 avg. and 90 RBIs do not provide real value for long term big money the way they once did.
Posted by: Partrick | December 4, 2008 12:03 PM
Don't worry Pete, according to O'Malley a lot of us will not be working next week. Maybe I will go to Vegas!
Posted by: cb coach | December 4, 2008 12:28 PM
I'm confident that the orioles will have a productive winter meeting. Not saying we'll come away with any players, but I do think we'll have a better idea of what we are getting. The shortstop market is getting smaller, so Isturaz will be our focus. (I'd rather bring back Castro if that's the case.)
We'll also have an idea of what pitcher we can get. I think we'll come to find that a guy like Brad Penny is someone we need to take a chance on, rather than break the bank on Burnett.
Hopefully we'll find a market for Ramon. Forget Max, he's gonna get too much money.
Posted by: birddroppings | December 4, 2008 12:30 PM
Pete, as a former newsman, I want to thank you for the enthusiasm and knowledge you bring to this blog. Blogs are known in the industry as killers, because their appetite never ceases. You appear to enjoy it, even while writing traditional stories for the Sun. It's great to read about all this baseball, and the bloggers' comments, during this unseasonably cold fall.
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Pete's reply: Thanks, I appreciate the support.
Posted by: j. roberts | December 4, 2008 12:55 PM
Pete,
Any chance the O's could be talking to the Giants during the winter meetings about Emmanuel Burriss now that the Giants have signed Edgar Renteria to a two-year deal?
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Pete's reply: Haven't heard that, but will ask when I get to the Winter Meetings this weekend.
Posted by: tonysabs | December 4, 2008 3:50 PM
Keep em short, keep em sweet, keep em frequent.
Posted by: a fan with delusions of grandeur | December 4, 2008 3:51 PM
Can someone explain why we weren't able to sign Edgar Renteria. He wasn't offered arbitration,so no draft pick would be lost.He signs for two years,18.5 mil. If we can't afford that, then just call us the next Tampa Bay Rays.
He's a gold glove S.S. that hits for average.What are you waiting for Andy?
We already have 11 years of losing.We're way ahead of the game.When is P.A. going to spend some money?
Posted by: O fan in Fl | December 4, 2008 3:57 PM
WHY NOT SIGN JASON GIAMBI AS THE DH.HIS ON BASE PERCENTAGE IS GOOD AND I BELIEVE HE WOULD HIT 35 HOME RUNS AND DRIVE IN OVER 100 RUNS.
Posted by: KEVIN | December 4, 2008 5:36 PM
WHY NOT SIGN JASON GIAMBI AS THE DH.HIS ON BASE PERCENTAGE IS GOOD AND I BELIEVE HE WOULD HIT 35 HOME RUNS AND DRIVE IN OVER 100 RUNS.
Posted by: KEVIN | December 4, 2008 5:36 PM
hey pete, if the orioles does not sign mark texeira or burnett what direction do you believe mcphail will go?
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Pete's reply: I would think he'll sign a shortstop (Izturis) and try to sign a couple of marginal starters to buy time for the young pitchers in the system.
Posted by: mike james | December 4, 2008 9:17 PM
hey peter,
lets say you are andy mcphail for two weeks, what are your plans to improve the o's this season? should you continue to execute your plan to rebuild and build pitching foundation or sign guys like mark texiera or a j burnett or even try to trade roberts for prospects if he doesnt sign long term contract?
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Pete's reply: If I'm Andy, I stick with my program...but that doesn't preclude the possibility of signing a big-name player. He may have no choice but to trade Roberts if Brian doesn't want to stay.
Posted by: simon ross | December 4, 2008 9:25 PM
Two years of Renteria for $18.5M would be a huge waste of the Orioles money. His range isn't what it used to be, and his two seasons in the AL have been two of the worst in his career. That's a lot of money for a below-average SS. I'd like to think we'll put that money to better use.
Posted by: sheets | December 4, 2008 10:03 PM
Brian Roberts won't stay.. he's been around a team that has lost for more than 10 years.... knowing that they will continue to lose and lose and lose.. why not get out when you can... especially knowing that he can get on with a team that will win... and knowing the O's have no chance at Texiera or Burnett who i think is a to risky anyways... by the time they do become a .500 team Markakis will want out and so on.. losing will continue!
Posted by: Allen | December 4, 2008 10:30 PM
Pete,
Why don't the O's move Roberts to SS? It's whole lot easier to fine a 2B-man than quality SS... Roberts was all-universe @ SS in college ball.
Posted by: dj | December 5, 2008 12:42 AM
The problem for the O's is their fan base isn't the same as other big cities. Boston,Ny and Chicago have big government workers and union people who can afford to go to games,Balto. doesn't.But the real killer was allowing DC to get a team.Never should have happened,the area isn't big enough to support two teams.That said the recession came along just in time to cover for McPhail being a tightwad.We wouldn't sign a Tex or Burrnett in the best of times.Still no excuse not to be extending Nick and BRob even if they don't sign a big name FA.
Posted by: John | December 5, 2008 3:47 AM
Agree w/Peter's assessment of what the Orioles will do at the Meetings.People expecting Texieras, Burnetts and major trades should stop smoking that stuff.The Club is waiting pretty much on the minors now.
Posted by: mikezpen | December 5, 2008 6:36 AM
Let's be patient. That's what the riskless Orioles want to be. And Peter Schmuck has given his emotionally detached blessing.
Relax. Don't do it.
What was that group's name? Vladdy Goes To Hollywood?
Good news, window shoppers. San Francisco signed Edgar Renteria for two years and $19 mil while St. Louis traded for Khalil Greene. That means the Orioles are now two shortstops closer to get the last man standing for their 2009 upgrade.
Go O's !!!
Posted by: waspman | December 5, 2008 10:42 AM
Pete,
Good luck in Vegas, I am sure you are going for the Casino hopes and not the O's. I for one am not looking forward to hearing about Roberts being traded and no attempt to sign Tex. I hope we don't waste money on Burnett. Just glad I am here in Alaska, has to be warmer here than in the O's front office!
Ed in Alaska
Posted by: Ed in Alaska | December 5, 2008 12:19 PM
I agree with picking up Izturis for a few years. Hopefully this will get done within the next few weeks so that we can continue to focus on our greatest need, pitching. Andy needs to collect as many major league arms as possible to carry us over until the kids arrive. They have to stop dipping into the lower rungs of the system to pull up stopgap arms to give innings. The club is not benefitting since they are getting shelled and the young players are not benefitting from such a negative experience.
Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Texeira will not be coming neither will Burnett. AM needs to continue to stick to the plan and build the system from the draft and smart deals like last year.
hit 'em straight Pete!!
Posted by: Kevin San Diego | December 5, 2008 5:38 PM