Peter

I've read your other blogs regarding Markakis.

You can spin it anyway you want but the fact of the matter is many teams are locking up their players who have little MLB service time because they know they will only be more expensive down the line and locking them in now will save them money in the long run.

Markakis is in the same class as those players and yet we get news that the two sides are putting off negotiations for 6 weeks?

This team NEEDS to sign him if for nothing else to throw a bone to whatever fan base is left. The fact that he's young and a great player already only adds to the reasons. Fair or not, the Markakis contract talks have now been in the news for awhile now and the only side that's gonna come out looking bad if a deal doesn't get done is the team.

11 years of losing and losing in an embarrassing way means you can't do what other clubs do with regards to situations like this. If the team had a good track record, then this would be much less of an issue. But the sad truth is us fans have no reason to trust them. A few trades last offseason isn't nearly enough for me to just brush the Markakis talks aside and say "oh, it's just business". Not with this team. Not with the last 11 seasons staring me directly in the face.

Right or wrong, not signing Markakis before the season starts is gonna be another notch in those who have zero faith in this team. I get that they don't "have" to and that they control him for a few more years. I also get that you don't sign guys because the fans want you to. But we all know what this guy can do and it needs to get done.

Honestly, Markakis had a pretty similar year to Pedroia last year. He wasn't quite as good, but close. Pedroia (.326/17/83/213) and Markakis (.306/20/87/182) both had good years for young players. I think that the problem is that there is more expected for an MVP coming from the outfield as opposed to second basemen.

Lets look at Pedroias numbers and compare them to the last outfielder that won the award (Vlad in 2004). Vlad's numbers at .337/39/126/206 absolutely dwarf the season Pedroia had last year. For that matter, the last second baseman (Jeff Kent in 2000) that won the award had significantly better numbers as well, coming in at .334/33/125/196.

Essentially, even though Markakis had a pretty good year, no one was going to consider him an MVP candidate. For him to get paid as an elite player at his position, he'll have to put up numbers similar to the other elite players AT HIS POSITION. The Orioles shouldn't give him a Vlad or Manny type contract until he proves he can produce at an equivalent level.

That said, I think the O's will do just fine and get this resolved because as I've said before, Andy and co. seem to have a fairly good handle on how to handle players. It's about time...

The big difference is that the Sox are only buying out 2 years of free agency while the Os would be buying out three years of free agency. Also Markakis has shown he can produce at the ML level for three years. The pitchers obviously tried to adjust but Nick adjusted as well. That is the mark of an MLer.

This is frustrating. I know there is no hurry with Markakis, but at this point he is the Orioles. He is our future. If we are going to be successful he needs to be on this team. He even was the one who was the first to model the Baltimore jersey. 455,000 a year seems like a slap in the face to a player like this. He's implanted himself in right field and you have never once heard a negative remark from his mouth. He is what ever organization wants and cant have...very similar to Pedroia. I know we have to be realistic here but what are we waiting for. If that extra year or that extra million is what he wants give it to him. Obviously this is easier said then done but come on, he's something the Orioles haven't had since Ripken, so lets treat him like it.

Pete,
Don't let some naysayers get you down. You make some strong points. I've had to negotiate a lot of deals here and there in business and it's usually a messy non-linear process that can only be taken case-by-case.

Just as you said, if, say, Nick insisted on a No Trade Clause then the negotiation process just on that point comes down to MacPhail's preference there. If he didn't want to give him that then he needs to ask Nick's agent how many dollars or whatever else would it require to withdraw that request (If only we spent some long thought on that point with Mora)? And you work it out, point by point. One can imagine how this can be a long process that shouldn't be rushed. Understandbly for Nick, he may want to see what the market is like right now. From MacPhail's perspective he may prefer to focus on the upcoming critical month in the offseason. Otherwise having his team's focus split may badly rush the process with Nick and create a bad contract neither side is especially happy with later. Alternatively to not focus on trades and free agents now, may leave the Orioles handicapped to address needs later since options will only narrow later in the offseason.

I think what we need to remember is that Andy is a careful, patient, and shrewd decision-maker. We've learned as much thus far. To me postponing talks fits in line with his approach. So far it's improved the organization. As far as I'm concerned, until further notice, we should give Andy the benefit of the doubt. His administration has been good at evaluating talent (keepers, sleepers and diamonds-in-the-rough). He knows Nick is a no-brainer.

What we're seeing is the knee-jerk reaction of 12 years of frustration.

So Pedroia signs for a 'mere' 7 mill per year...still not too bad for someone who's only been in the bigs for a couple of years!
Markakis and his agent will probably ignore that signing in their negotiations and use other examples like Rios/Hanley Ramierez because they received more $$$.
If the O's offered 10 mill/yr, then that seems like more than a fair offer, given that the AL MVP accepted about 3 mill/yr less. Factor in that Markakis has played longer and is on a lousy team and you can argue the offers are pretty close. Markakis should really consider signing sooner than later but either way, he'll come out of this pretty rich. The O's will look stupid if they lower their offer because Pedroia signed but by the same token, they have a good case not to offer a huge increase.
If Nick waits and/or refuses to accept 10-11 mill/yr then you have to wonder why-is it because it saves face by giving him an excuse to get out of Baltimore or is he over-estimating his true value?
If the O's overpay him then they are setting a precedent and every other young star is going to base their worth on a possibly inflated contract.

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post a deal for Khalil Greene will be finalized by monday. The only two teams really reported pursuing him are the Orioles and the Cardinals. What kind of player would we give up for him...keeping in mind Garret Olsen's name has been thrown around in a deal for Greene. That would be a terrible use of a young arm on the Orioles part if you ask me...

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Pete's reply: I haven't heard that the Greene thing is back on.

Of course you're points are rational and well thought out Pete. I am just impatient as many other O's fans. I still say take a chance and screw smart business practices and live on the edge. Sure A. Belle didn't work-out, but geesh. Get on with it! Ok thanks for allowing me to vent irrationally.

Olsen for Greene, straight up?
No way!

Mark--Well said. And I really believe the deal with Nick will get done before the season starts.

Mark,
I understand and appreciate your frustration. Believe me. But you have to chill. They didn't say they were going to stop talks, period. They didn't say that they won't extend. They didn't even say they won't extend him this offseason. They just postponed talks for 2 months. 2 months!? If Nick or his agent or Andy secretly didn't want to get a contract done for any reason, they wouldn't have said "2 months," they could have spun in a bunch of ways. Maybe we'd hear a "year-to-year" from Nick's agent.

I hear where you are coming from. If they end up not extending Nick, the sad story probably starts out with a "postponement" that gradually evolves into something else. But thus far, we haven't really gotten anything but pretty direct honest stuff from Andy so he deserves the benefit of the doubt.

If they don't sign him this offseason, I'll be on your side with you, but until then, I'd just take a wait-and-see approach. Look. We don't want Andy to be negotiating for trades and/or free agents simultaneously with Nick's contract, do we? Perhaps something important slips thru the cracks? Perhaps a rushed contract makes Nick and/or the club unhappy with the deal which eventually sets the stage for Markakis' departure? Working from a position of weakness as that, is what I'd expect from the regimes of the last 12 years. What Andy is suggesting we do right now with Nick, in my mind, is the conservative high percentage play. There's nothing wrong with that.

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Pete's reply: It may actually be an agent play, but I wouldn't be surprised if they get back together right after the Winter Meetings.

I've read every post so far on the Markakis contract impasse, but I am still shocked that nearly every post is that Andy MacPhail and Peter Angelos have failed us or give Nick any amount. I have to say as a long suffering O's fan that Andy hasn't done one thing since he has been here that hasn't benefited this team. Look we got from Houston and Seattle so why all of sudden did he go from master negotiator to clueless? The guy knows what he is doing and news flash, he isn't the reason that we are so bad because he wasn't here during the awful drafts and free agent signings. As far as P.A. goes, has he interfered once since Andy has been in charge? No! He is letting baseball people do their jobs so let's get over the P.A. bashing unless you have a time machine to go back to the start of the 98 season.

I like Nick as much as the next fan, but do you guys think when he hits the open market, he will give us a home town deal? I don't. I, also don't seen how 60 mil is low balling him. Honestly, I think Andy could go out and sign AJ, extend B Rob and Nick, yet fans would still say "he didn't get Tex because he was too deliberate." Nobody likes losing, but can't we wait till the new regime messes up before we want to start over again?

I disagree with the notion that a good 2B is more valuable than a good RF, based on the assumption that there are more good hitters in the RF pool. Historically I think that's true, but not right now. Here are the top 5 in the majors at each position for 2008, ranked based on Runs Created:

Second base: Utley 125.3, Pedroia 120.2, Roberts 111.0, Kinsler 101.6, DeRosa 94.2

RF: Markakis 118.4, Ludwick 115.1, Suzuki 104.9, Abreu 104.4, Dye 103.4

Markakis was 13.5 runs better than the next best RF in the AL, Pedroia was 9.2 runs better than the next best 2B in the AL. Markakis was the BEST RF IN BASEBALL last year, Pedroia wasn't even the best 2B.

I'm not saying I disagree with the MVP voting, just pointing out that the Orioles really have something special and there's no way I'd trade Markakis for Pedroia (especially since the Orioles have Roberts at 2B).

Peter- People compare stats but nobody points out key points. So here.
Pedroia plays for the Red Sox.
He is protected by Youklis, Bay, Ortiz, Ellsbury, Lowell.
Markakis has Kevin Millar. And I still would rather have the 18 less batting points but 4 more HRs and RBIs.
But, players know that if they are protected by good players that they will see more Fastballs. They get more pitches. Nick gets IBB anytime 1st base is open with 2 outs men on.
When your salary is based on stats, and you know that the stats would be better if the team put better players behind you, I would want more money too.
What would Nick do if he hit 3rd for the Yankees instead of Abreu?
We will never know (hopefully) but I feel safe in saying 320 30 and 125.

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Pete's reply: Wow. I like Nick, but you just turned him into A-Rod. Let's not get carried away just yet. The Orioles actually had a pretty productive offense last year, so he wasn't as disadvantaged as you think.

Greene is going to the Cards, Renteria to the Giants at least that is what I hear. Pete, have you heard about that?. Pedroia has incentives that will bring him more money on performance, we can all appreciate that. Markakis is going to get a contract, there are other things to deal with. Blake Davis now is the front runner for the Shortstop.

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Pete's reply: Yes, I believe Greene is going to the Cards, but Blake Davis has no chance to be the shortstop this year. The O's will sign someone adequate, but probably not exciting.

Well if you look at the O's dept chart, there is no one listed at shortstop on the 40 man roster, nor a backup middle infielder. They have to fill that somehow. They only have two in their organization that has played more than 10 games at shortstop (Fahey and Murphy) unless I am missing something. If they trade Roberts they have the same issue. Pete: What do you think they will do create two holes or sign someone that can add benefit to the long term plan, whatever that is?

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Pete's reply: My guys still think they get Izturis.

That's interesting about a good second-baseman being more valuable than a good right-fielder.
Personally, I subscribe to the theory which most managers and general managers subscribe to...... that in order to win, a team must be strong up the middle. Specifically, catcher, shortstop, second-base, and center-field. No exceptions.... no slackers. No weak links. A team can get away with a lesser player at any other position except one of those four.
Obviously, if you have a Nick Markakis, an Alex Rios, or even a Frank Robinson, or a Roberto Clemente in RF, then these are certainly not "fringe" players. But the RF position itself is not considered one of the basic components around which a winning ballclub is built. A very good example of this was the 2008 last-place Orioles. We had an all-star at second, and an outstanding up-and-coming rookie in centerfield. But our catching was shaky and our shortstop was nameless. Those two weak links in the basic team structure helped render also having arguably the best right-fielder in baseball insignificant.
Look at the two teams that went to the World Series. No weak links at those four positions.
As good as Pedroia played, Boston was strong in CF, but shaky at SS and underperformed at catcher. All the playoff teams which got eliminated had at least one weak link.
That's why finding a shortstop is so important for the Orioles.... not just to fill that one position in and of itself..... but because with Jones, Roberts, and Weiters, we already have three out of four of the essentials it takes to win.

Incredibly, $40.5M is "all" Pedie is going to get, as the contract comes without any incentives.

Granted, he's only had two full seasons in the Majors, but those are two terrific seasons: 2007--A key member of the World Champions and AL Rookie of the Year; 2008--The best player on a Red Sox team that went to the ALCS, AL MVP, and winner of both the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards for AL second basemen. Few players from this or any era can boast that kind of resume.

Boston took advantage of Pedroia by backloading his contract like crazy. Next year he's due to make "only" $3M initially ($1.5M each for 2009 salary and signing bonus), while a whooping $28M is locked up until the last three years of the deal.

Then again, the economy being what it is, and all.... LOL

"The O's will sign someone adequate, but probably not exciting" Gee Pete isn't this the same crapola that kept the O's where they have been for the last 11 years (and many more coming).I think Andy may have to go into his begging mode to get Nick, BRob, a SS, and 2 SPs.