I know Markakis is our best player, but is he 10 million a year good???

Consider:

1. He is a corner outfielder who struggles to hit 20 home runs in 600+ ABs

2. He strikes out over 100 times a year

3. He is not a base stealer

4. Despite the baltimore hype he is not a gold glove outfielder in that he has only average speed, and an average but extremely accurate arm.

Interesting view, Peter. On the other hand, though, leave it to some idiot owner to offer a comparable or less talented player six years for $75 or $80 million, just because he can. Which puts the O's in a state, and turns their impatient fans (all six of us) into a howling mob. Oh, wait, we already are a howling mob.

The offer sounds reasonable when compared to Wells but high when compared to Pedroia. That contract, which seems low given his talent, makes it harder to offer so much right away. It gets done eventually as it makes sense of both parties, esp. if the O's do something significant (wishful thinking) to improve this off season.

Also, from what you have heard, does it look like Crosby or Izturis as our next SS?

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Pete's reply: I'm thinking Izturis, but don't know if anything's going on right now with that.

Is there any news on Texeira?

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Pete's reply: Not on the Orioles front.

You have said in recent posts that you have no idea as to what the Orioles offered Markakis.... So how can you assert that he's playing a game of chicken with way more downside than up. With the Orioles previous history of low balling contracts, that's an absurd statement to make.

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Pete's reply: I don't know exactly what they are offering, but I do know it's very close to $60 million for six.

65M? That's a little high when you consider the Rex Sox gave reigning the MVP, Dustin Pedroia 40.5M.

I say 6 years @ 65mil won't be enough for Nick and he and his agent will demand more. Hope you're right and I'm wrong.

Actally, the O's have far more to lose if Nick is not signed this winter. In all their promotion they have him as the corner stone. No to mention he is home grown and reay for break out years
What is a cosistent 20+ hr, 15 - 20 steals 290-300 avg, gold glove feilder worth. $85 6 years. No doubt there is risk in projecting a players fouture, InNicks case he has shown consistent progression. Ths should led any normal projection to say it will continue.

Time to embark on a new ath."Pay for the talent"!

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Pete's reply: Where's he going to go? He is tied to the O's for three more years.

You make complete and total sense in your argument for the new contract; it makes me wonder why more sportswriters don't become agents and negotiation mediators, since writers usually have the inside understanding of both sides of the table.

It is all about value..No need to over pay in a buyers market.. Nick has an upside but signing now to "long term" deal off sets that.. To play 3 more years and risk injury, economic disaster, poor preformance should be worth something to sign now "value". Pedroia signed 6 yrs for 40 something..He was ROY and MVP.. Nick wasn't in the conversation for all-star team..
Baseball people will tell you value starts "up the middle" and corner players lf, rf, 1b, 3b have less.. Nick is a fine player and will "probably" have a better career but 63k is too much now!

Why do you Nick has any downside by waiting?

Worst case scenario for Nick is that he waits until February, and he becomes a multi-millionaire via the arbitration process or by signing a one year deal with the Orioles.

Nick's undoubtedly protected himself from the unlikely event of a career ending injury with insurance at this point. So that's not a concern.

If he doesn't sign with the Orioles, Nick can play three more years, collect a likely $20 million or more over those three arbitration years, and then declare free agency and pick where he plays. If he continues to improve, it seems smart to me to have teams like the Yankees and Red Sox pushing up the value of a huge guaranteed contract.

It doesn't make sense for Nick to sign a long term deal in a year when contracts are depressed because of the economy. In three years, the economy will most likely be in a lot better shape, and teams will be more likely to fork over huge deals again.

Nick has more upside to waiting then he does by signing a long term deal in a down economy.

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Pete's reply: Nick isn't insured for $60 million. It's very hard to get insurance like that after the Albert Belle fiasco. He might be insured for a couple of million, but he would get $4-5 million in arbitration and it would become unnecessary.

As long as it takes the Orioles to get anything done, I don't know why they would want to give their selves less time to get this hammered out. I imagine that in the time it takes MacPhail to decide what he wants for Breakfast it's time for dinner.

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Pete's reply: Maybe so, but I don't think the O's are stalling on this.

I agree on the $/year but I would try and go seven not six.

Smucker,

Why would anyone want to listen to you today with C4? Are you getting ready to run for office or something? If so, then you'll have to rectify and explain your scandalous life style--those horrible flowered shirts!

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Pete's reply: With my wardrobe, it's pretty hard to get involved in a scandal.

I think the Orioles should give Nick what he wants. In some aspects, I believe his signing is more important than going after Burnett or Texiara. The Orioles can't afford to allow Markakis to end up in Yankee pinstripes or any other out of town uniform!!!!

Unless the Orioles can make real improvements to the team between now and the time the sides resume bargaining, if I were Markakis I wouldn't sign an extention at all with the O's.

If such were the case, it be better for him to wait and test the free agent market when the time comes, because there are plenty of team that are really serious about winning that will line up to bid for his services.

Nick is too good a player to end up on a perennial loser, and if the O's don't do something substantial in the weeks of come to prove that losing is no longer an option, then as much as I'd miss him parolling right field in the orange and black, better that he go where his talent has a chance to be appreciated. (Does anyone really think that he couldn't have won a Gold Glove this year had he been playing for, say, the Angels or Red Sox?)

Those numbers sound good to me. They could be a bit higher, even - as I noted before, Nick was the best RF in all of baseball last year in terms of runs created. He'd earn top dollar as a free agent, but figuring his salary gets discounted through arbitration years (3) and him signing his first major contract provides financial security for life, 6 years and $65M makes a lot of sense.

OK, Pete, use your influence to get it done.

peter i agree that the figures you mention the orioles should offer nick markakis is a good and fair offer to nick. i don't know what percentage of either amount the agent would get if and when nick agrees to a contract. my feelings on a players agent nagotiating a contract is how much junk the agent puts in a players head.during nagotiating.as mentioned before, this contract should have been done and over with

Don't forget that Angelos owes it to Yankee and Red Sox fans to keep costs down so the prices they pay all the Oriole fans who sell their tickets don't go through the roof!

Hey Peter,
I usually agree with what you write in your blog, but I think you are a bit off base with this one.
While i do agree that signing Markakis long term is imperative to the Orioles re-building process, I think that your $65 million prediction is a little high.
Dustin Pedroia, the reigning AL MVP, just resigned for 6 years at $40.5 million. How can you justify giving Markakis almost $25 million more than Pedroia????
You'll probably use the Hanley Ramirez contract to fire back with, but let's be honest, Markakis is no Ramirez.
I am a life long Oriole fan. I also recognize that we will probably have to overpay a little to keep Markakis here. But $25 more than the AL MVP is a little much....

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Pete's reply: If you go back and read my posts from Wednesday, you'll see I agree with some of what you're saying, but it's not fair to make a straight comparison between Nick and a guy who isn't even arbitration eligible yet. Even if he is the MVP. They are just different situations.

Hey Peter, hypothetically, if someone wanted to listen to you on WBAL, what time would they tune in?

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Pete's reply: Hypothetically, noon EST.

Keep an eye on the Pittsburg game on Sunday. Ben might not play. The slick one might get his 1st play this season. The one I thought was [ and still do ] better then Joe F. I don't think the Steelers are keeping him for his looks. Don't make me look bad, Dennis!

63 millon for 6 yrs for a player that is n't good enough to lift a team from last. no no no

This is what I said in one of the previous blog entries. I really think the deal should be 6 years at 65 million.

Pete,

I think that your suggestion that the Orioles pay Markakis $63-$65 million is just irresponsible journalism. The only caveat to this is if you have insider information on what both sides have offered thus far, and this is the middle ground.

If you don't have the insider info, then you have just undermined all of MacPhail's bargaining power. Now Markakis' agent can say, "even a Schmuck thinks Nick should get $65 million.

Considering what Dustin Pedroia just signed for, I thought that MacPhail may have some leverage to go 6 years, $55 million. I love watching Nick play ball, but I don't think he's worth more than $10 million a year.

I'm sure that the contract will get done, but I think Andy might give you the cold shoulder the next time he sees you.

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Pete's reply: I hope I don't get the cool clavicle from Andy. It's cold enough around here already.

Peter,

That amount of money is a fair amount, but I think a lot of people are missing the point:

Markakis is going to get that much money regardless of what the O's want to do.

1) Nick will be paid competitively (for a change) as a result of the next three years of arbitration. He'll probably earn 3-6-9 million over the next three years.

2) As a free agent, Nick will earn $15 million per season if all salary trends continue.

The big difference is that Nick will be able to play for a team who treats him well. The O's have been treating him poorly for years, and now Markakis will be paid fairly. In three years, he's in the driver's seat.

By waiting around for who knows what, MacPhail has lost all leverage.

Hey. 50 Million, 65 Million. What's the difference.

Hey wait a minute--does Markakis build cars?

I pretty much agree with you 100% on this one, Pete and that doesn't happen very often. Nick has a great future with the O's and they know that and so does he. I believe in MacPhail and given time he will bring Baltimore a winning team. A question for you, Pete, Are the O's on the list of teams that Peavy won't accept a trade to?

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Pete's reply: Yes, because I believe he has a complete no-trade. He has just given the Padres permission to deal him to certain teams.

Umm, were you high when you wrote this, Flip?

One, what's your basis for declaring Peter Angelos a billionaire?

Two, you DO understand, don't you, that player salaries don't come out of the owner's personal bank account, but out of team revenues?

Three, inflated player salaries mean higher prices for tickets, souveniers, parking, and food and beverages. Now I know sportswriters can't relate to that cuz you don't have to buy tickets, or even rub shoulders with us plebeians, and (if I'm not mistaken) even feed at a trough supplied by the team, but believe me, we working class stiffs already can't afford to attend a game as often as we might like.

Four, which is it: "the contract of a fairly equivalent player who signed SIX MONTHS AGO"? or "the standard for dozens of other contracts over the NEXT YEAR OR TWO"?

Five, "Markakis is negotiating for his future security." Please. I like Nick Markakis. I hope he's an Oriole for his entire career and I don't begrudge his making a tidy sum of money. But don't insult my intelligence by shilling for that tired line, "I have to take care of my family." For those of us whose total lifetime income won't be a million dollars, hearing that nonsense from an athlete as he demands $10 million/year (or Texeira's $25 million) is a slap in the face. He and his family could get along very nicely on, oh, let's say, $5 million a year.

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Pete's reply: Well, at least you're not totally misinformed. Nick made $455,000 last year. He'll be a very rich young man soon, but he isn't yet. And, yes, I know that players salaries don't come out of the owner's pocket, though Peter Angelos has claimed that he has subsidized them with his own money several times. It was just a figure of speech. And, no, I don't get free meals from the team. One other thing: IM NOT FLIP. I already have two jobs. Do you really think I could do a third.

Pete, what's your take on Kawakami and Uehara? I like that within a year of international scouting, we have a chance to reap the benefits. Both Kawakami and Uehara are not youngsters, but if they are solid back end of the rotation guys or one is a starter and the other a long man in the pen, I don't see any negatives. Pete, it seems like once a team has positive experiences with international players, the team seems to have an inside track in the future so this could be a small step that leads into something much bigger and better in years to come.

Pete, have fun in Vegas and please, do not listen the majority of bloggers and take the idea of give 'em what they want so if your bill comes to $2500, don't say make it $4000 so that you'll get a home town discount the next time you return to Sin City and tell Andy, life wont be the same without Millar so if he wants to be a part time player, accept.

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Pete's reply: I think the O's international outreach is a great thing, but I don't know how to guage their interest.

It's all changed now. 63-65 mil over 6 years is too much. Pedroia just signed 6 years for 40 mil and he's a rookie of the year and MVP in his first two years. Markakis isn't worth more.

Peter,

Thanks for providing some much needed sanity to off set some of the ridiculous posts offered here. I'm totally on-board with you on the Markakis extension. And I'm sick of the "just pay him whatever he wants crowd". I mean do these people even live on their own, support themselves and pay bills? I sure wouldn't want these folks running my company!!

You hit the nail on the head when you commented in previously that there are many factors that come into play in negotiating a contract of this nature. Is the agent looking for a no-trade clause. How is the offer going to impact extending others. Like possibly Roberts and down road Guthrie. I also believe Andy has a good idea of what the pulse of this town & the fans are after 11 losing seasons. I think the deal gets done and both sides will walk away feeling they accomplished something.

Do you think Markakis might also be advising his agent to put the negotiating process on hold to see what the O's do this off season to make this franchise competitive? I mean let's be realistic Pete, if for some bizarre reason the O's revert back to the form of the franchise from 1998-2007, then why would Nick want to resign? I don't believe that will happen for one moment, but do you think Nick wants to see the O's make a commitment to restoring the credibility of this franchise?

Just wanted to say thanks for your input, and for at least giving MacPhail a chance in this town. Some of the natives are getting restless!!!

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Pete's reply: I don't think Nick is waiting on that, though I'm sure he hopes they make some big moves. It's a money thing.

I'm so tired of hearing about money and how much they will take and how much they want. In the end, we fans are the one's being robbed.
If Tex doesn't want to take the money offered here to play in Baltimore, he's not a guy I want on this team. You either love Maryland that you grew up in, or you love being the highest paid to play somewhere else. It's not that difficult. Don't come here as a has been when you can come here in your prime.

Peter Angelos had the second highest income in all Baseball from 2002-2006, He's strip mining money out of the Orioles. You have to remember what is important is income=revenues-costs. Angelos has duped people into believing we can't compete based on just revenues.The Orioles have very low costs and are run to make money, They are awash in it.. Other teams are run to win. Whatever happens expect the Payroll to drop, the real reason MacPhail is here.

Hey Peter-
I went back and re-read yur blog dissecting the Pedroia deal.... But I just dont see the justification in spending $25 million more because of one extra season of service time.... Plus, Pedroia plays a "premium" position, and he is the MVP!!!
I realize we need to overspend, but I think we should really take a hard look at using some of that "overspending" mentality at signing Teixiera. That would be the key to re-signing Brian Roberts, possibly luring a top-of-the-rotation starter, and bringing this team back to respectability. With our pitching the way it is now, we are going to need to win a lot of 10-8 games... Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta are still a year or two away....
I like our chance with a lineup of:
Roberts
Jones
Markakis
Teixiera
Huff
Mora
Scott
Hernandez/ Wieters
SS (God only knows)

Pete,

As you constantly remind us, Andy moves slow! I'm more of the he who hesitates is lost mentality. But really, Nick is the closest thing to a superstar we have. Just think if we batted him 3rd or 5th with a couple good hitters around him and his numbers go through the roof! Pay the man and move on! This has to be the most dysfunctional organization I've ever seen! Can you say BJ Ryan? All the guy wanted was $3M a year and we got nothing for him, zilch! It sickons me just watching this group flagellate constantly on everything, except hiring a FO weenie because he was part of the good ole boy network! Git r dun NOW!

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Pete's reply: I think you've got the BJ thing backwards. The O's offered him five for $15 in the spring of that year and he turned it down.

Ghost Oriole--Regarding Nick Markakis, you say "the Orioles have been treating him poorly for years."

We know Nick was not extended last year. And he was disappointed in that. But "treating him poorly for years"?

You are wrong.

Nick has grown into an outstanding young player with the Orioles. His teammates, fans, and the organization let him know that he is loved.

That's why he and the Orioles will agree on a long-term extension.

$10 million a year average would be greatly overpaying for the cheap years he has left on his contract. It ain't going to happen. Nick's a very good player but he's not a game changing bat or late inning hero.6/50 ought to be more than enough.

I have been reading comments for awhile, now. How do I get my ideals to someone who cares about winning and players? That is how you win-talent-attitude-managing/manegement! Last I heard, things come from the top down-take a long look at revenue and winning? Shouldn't they go hand in hand?

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Pete's reply: Well, they do sometimes, but the Orioles have a ways to go to get there.

Some of you are too much.

Pedroia is MVP. Who cares? He's on the Red Sox. Oriole players are gonna get about 5% of the coverage that Sox players get.

Do a little research and see just how much run production Markakis provides this team. Combine that with his superb defense and he is indeed a superstar.

If he were a Yankee or Red Sox he'd be a household name.

All of the people who think they are smarter than the rest need to realize that this team has screwed the pooch WAY too often to be given the benefit of the doubt. Sorry, but that's the deal.

Until they do sign Markakis long term I will absolutely be critical of the way they handle things.

The two trades made cut major salary from this team. Something King Pete will always approve of.

So while some might scoff at the notion that they need to get the Markakis deal done, I won't. It needs to get done for countless different reasons.

The Pedroia deal should have zero effect on the Markakis deal. They are comletely different situations.

I am glad you are not running the Os. The reigning MVP get a deal for $43 mil. and you want to give Markakis $60 mil?? You are nuts!

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Pete's reply: Well, now that you mention it, yes, but not for the reason you describe.

I'll repeat: Nick was more valuable than the 2nd best RF in the AL last year than Pedroia was over the 2nd best 2B. Both players posted total runs created of about 120. Nick actually got on base more often. If Nick were Boston's RF, he might very well have won the MVP (more "flashy" stats like RBI and runs, he'd probably smack more doubles off the Green Monster). Pedroia has performed well for two years, Nick for three. Saying Pedroia got $40.5M so Nick doesn't deserve $65M is not a good argument. I'm not saying "pay him what he wants", I am saying pay him his value.

And whoever described his arm as "average" but very accurate is insane. Most teams wanted to draft him as a pitcher. The guy has a rifle, and he's accurate.

Many of you people have been spouting "pay the man, get him signed!!" Now you think it is to much for just an OK outfielder? Pedroia set the mark lower, we should not have to pay more than that?

and to the poster that complained about high prices,(they are high) would you goto more games if they cut the payroll and lower ticket prices? But have a team that cannot win?

Pay nick, pay Roberts, get 2 pitchers and a SS and we can maybe finish .500 or slightly above.

Trade Markakis to the White Sox..... he is my favorite player that has no ties to the South side of Chicago! This guy needs to get paid...... if not by you...by us!

Everyone keeps talking about Pedroia but can you really compare a talented outfielder and a second basemen? Second baseman have historically been lower paid players because of the typically lower numbers and other fielders in the game that are subpar. Where in the outfield the game has more than I can count solid to excellent ballplayers raising the bar on the payment for that position. However that may be, Markakis may lack some speed and pop in his bat, but I believe some people are forgetting the tenacity, momentum changer, batting average, rbi's, runs, assists and overall solid hitting and fielding that he has. At this time, is he the best right fielder in the game? No, but does he have all of the tools to be one of the best? You bet. Locking up a guy like this early in his career puts the Orioles in a similar situation to what the Indians have done which paid off for them on some of those contracts. Give the guy an extra year or two, try and lock him up for 7 or 8 years for 70 million. Give him the money, add incentives to the contract and stop draggin your feet Peter. If this had been done last year, when it should have been done, this would be a non issue and could have been done at a lower price. Now we risk losing him as a free agent if something does not get done. He could possibly just reject the proposals and not even play hardball with Angelos in anticipation that he can get paid with a club that has more chances for the playoffs and a competant owner that KNOWS baseball and what it takes to be a winner and not just see it solely as a business.

The Orioles have a long road in front of them with Angelos as there owner. As long as he is our owner, this town will never be the same as it was with the early O's and Weaver kicking dirt on home plate. I do see some possibilities with this club offensively and defensively, but they need to buy pitching. I love Texeira and would love to see him in a uniform but realistically if we get him Angelos is very unlikely to spend any more money. WE NEED PITCHING. We will have to overpay for it and take big risks but it must be done. I'm not talking about giving 6 million a year to an overrated, 4plus ERA relief pitcher that was booted from every closer role he had, Baez. I'm talking about solid pitchers that give you solid outings all season long. Not the guy who gives you 2 unbelievable outings and 4 more where he gets shelled and walks 50 people, Cabrera. There isn't many of these guys out there but we could potentially get 2 or 3 quality starters for the money it would take to get a Sabathia, no chance anyhow. Cabrera, Olson, Penn, Liz, and almost everyone else we have except Guthrie are not going to do the job now or ever. We need a guy like a Derek Lowe, not exciting but a wonderful track record that continually has gotten the job done and been a winner. We need to make offers to guys like Paul Byrd, Jamie Moyer, and maybe a flyer on someone like a Mark Prior, alot of talent but could be contracted for a low salary if healthy. We need to look at possible trade alternatives and use those guys that we have in the minors and on the ballclub that we know will not amount to their potential, ie cabrera, olson, liz, penn. Unless we get more stable pitching our beloved Orioles will be in trouble and a below 500 team for the foreseeable future.

Wht would any major free agents want to sing with teh O's when then show no loyaty to thier own players. Re,ember players talk. Look what they did to Mussina could have signed him fro long haul but kept stalling and look aht he did. Would have been nice to do that in an O's uni.