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November 26, 2008

Waiting for Tex

texgetty.jpgMonitoring fan comments about the possibility of the Orioles signing big-money free agent Mark Teixeira, I'm reminded of a quotation from -- I believe -- Benjamin Franklin, though many have said essentially the same thing:

"I'm a pessimist. The optimist is too often disappointed. A pessimist is at least occasionally pleasantly surprised."

Now, I realize I don't have to instruct Orioles fans on the importance of maintaining a healthy sense of fatalism. It has become a religion around here. But the likelihood of Teixeira (right) ending up in an Orioles uniform is -- in my opinion -- so slim that it isn't worth expending the last remnants of your Oriole optimism on it.

If, for whatever reason, the guy decides that playing near home is more important than winning right away and making the most money possible, then we can all party like it's 1989. But allowing yourselves to get your hopes up will only make things look more dismal when he signs with the Red Sox.

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Posted by Peter Schmuck at 9:09 AM | | Comments (22)
Categories: Just baseball
        

Comments

I'm sure that you know much better than I do (or any other fan) the way the organization works (being as you atleast have been inside the offices). But my question is.. why cant we pay as much as Boston of NY for Tex? Doesnt Angelos have all this revenue from MASN? Also, if there ever was a player who would instantly bring fans back to the stadium its the local boy! Angelos is a smart man (he may not always make smart decisions but he is very smart when it comes to business) he should know what this will do for his team. Why doesnt he go out and offer a deal close to A-rods from Texas (b/c that type of offer would bring him here)? Fans would come flocking back to the Yard. Let me know where my logic is wrong..


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Pete's reply: I don't' know if your logic is wrong because I don't know how much money they are making. The MASN ratings have not been good, so I don't' know if it's a money machine or not. I do know that MLB grossed $6.5 billion last year, which averages out to $202 million per team. That would indicate the O's can afford to spend more than they do, but unless they open the books, there's no way to know where they rank in revenue.

I wish I'd read this before I saw my girlfriend the other night.

If the O's sign Burnett, will that effectively end any possibility of signing Tex, due to lack of sufficient funds to get both ?

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Pete's reply: I would guess so, but don't really know.

I've seen the Red Sox thing over and over and over...Where does in he play in Boston?

Youkilis at first, Lowell at third, Bay in LF, Drew in RF, Ortiz at DH.

Who's the odd man out? By way of a trade?

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Pete's reply: I think they would cross that bridge when they come to it. Lowell's status is iffy after surgery, so I would think Youk goes to third in that scenario.

One chance in a million he will sign in Baltimore.
Fans get realistic.

Peter-I hate being an O's fan. Nothing ever goes right. Nothing to celebrate. No hope. No grammar. I'm glad I put that staying up on a billboard until we sign Tex idea to bed. I pray he doesn't land in the AL East. That would be a small victory. I just don't see why. Would overpaying really be that bad?
I wish I could stop being a fan. I just know the next 10 years will be the same. At least until they put a salary cap in. And that is not gonna happen. We used to be the big spenders. What happen?

He's not signing with the Red Sox. They made him drop into the 9th round of the draft when he came out of high school, and he still harbors resentment. I still say the most likely scenario has him staying in an Angels uniform.

Signing Izturis, a few veteran starters to provide leadership & a gap between when the farm hands are ready is key.

Big Tex can go be very wealthy somewhere else. I only sign him if he takes a hometown discount. Other than he doesnt really fit the teams current plans. That said, please please please dont bring back Millar

We need more than Tex. I would like to see them take a chance on Carl Pavano. Hitting wasnt a problem last season. The bullpen should be better, but we need starters that can go past five innings while still giving the team a chance to win. If we had five Guthries I would say go for it but we don't
. So lets hold out until the young pitchers in the minors are ready and thats when we spend baby spend.

Schmuck,

How dare you?!!?!!?!

Right on the nose Peter! We as a fan based have suffered through the "hope" of the quick fix! This is Andy's plan and we either have faith or just continue to suffer. I choose to have faith and hope he sticks to his plan!

I think that even if Tex wanted to play here and was even willing to give a little bit up to play at home (and maybe that's not a piece of the pie so to speak) Boras is the kind of ego that would try to talk him out of playing here. As we've seen before w/ player's who have Boras for an agent, the player seems to have little input into negotiations. He wants to do it all, and it seems for his best interests not necessallary (sp??) for the player's. I might be wrong, but that's what I read about. Pete, do you know how much input a Boras player gets to give in the free agent process?

You know what Peter, I don't care anymore. I've been an O's fan for over 40 years and maybe I was spoiled by their continued excellence and ability to be competitive (at least until the late 90's).

The Free Agency era killed this team. The O's have never had an Owner or GM after EBW died who fully understood how to work it. On the other side of the equation, they also have never had an Owner or GM that could play the small market game of developing a Farm System (Atlanta, the Twins). So we've been caught in the hell that is called limbo with bad draft choices and horrible free agent signings.

So after all this time, we finally have a small burst of optimisim. Weiters and Matusz look like keepers. We fleece the Mariners and to a lesser extent the Astros for some promising players, so the farm system isn't the barren wasteland it used to be.

But to trot out anything this coming year that in anyway, shape or form resembles that team from the last two years is a travesty. It would be such a stench that putting "Baltimore" on the road jersey's will hardly cover up the smell comming from the annual August/September swoon.

I don't care that Brandon Snyder looks like he might be a player in a few years. I don't care that Huff could fill in at 1B as a second option. The O's have a chance to lock up at switch hitting 1B who is under 30 and who can put up Eddie Murray type numbers year in and year out. You could lock him down with Weiters and Markakis and Jones have your 3-4-5-6 set for the next 10 years if they played their cards right.

I'll take my chances with filling in the rest of the line up around that.

The O's do that and have at least 1/2 of the young pitching come through, this team is competing for a wild card in 2010.

One free agent signing and locking down Markakis, Jones and Weiters is all it will take. This town is starved for winning baseball again. Camden Yards will be rockin and all will be good.

Or they can give us one more year of the garbage they have been tossing out there for the past 10 odd years and listen for the crickets to chirp in between pitches.

I used to bleed orange and black, long before I had any purple and black in my veins. It's not the losing that has erroded my passion, it's the apathy with which they treat their fans and their product. They have to earn my passion and good will back and so far they are doing a horrible job.

The whole "Baltomore" thing was a joke. Should have happned a LONG time ago and now that they have done it, it's just a pat on the head for the fan base before they give us the annual kick in the ass.

I'm with you on staying pessimistic. But god knows I will be the first to buy an authentic Texeira road jersey if it becomes a reality! Lets Go O's!

"An optimist designed the aeroplane, and a pessimist designed the parachute"

I think Teixiera is coming our way.

As a native Texan who lived in the Baltimore area for many years, my two favorite teams are the Astros and the Orioles. I mention this because the Astros went through a similar situation a few seasons ago when they traded for Carlos Beltran, then everybody got their hopes up that they could keep him long term and were crushed when he signed with the Mets.

Like Tex, Beltran's agent is Scott Boras. And the sad fact is that these players, as nice personally as they might be, hire Boras for one reason and one reason only -- to rake in as much cash as they can. Tex might wind up with the Orioles, but if he does, it'll only be because the O's blow him away with a monster deal.

Can someone explain to me how signing Texeira to a long term contract (say 6 or 8 years) would hurt us in the long term for the O's rebuilding their team. I understand that everyone says that we won't compete this year or next year, possibly competing in 2010. A player like Texeira comes around every so often and who's to say who will be available next year or the following year in free agency. So we sign Texeira this year and he helps us get better this coming year and next year, he will already be in house for the year that we expect to compete. People make it sound like players of Texeira's ability are available every year in free agency and we should just wait until 2010 when we should compete. I don't understand.

I agree with the one poster, you dont use Scott Boras with the thought of giving a home team discount. If that was the case Boras would already be framing discussions that way.

Interesting but I am starting to get the feeling CC is going to sign with the Angels and it would not surprise me if it happens by Nov 30. As Rob Neyer mentioned saving runs is as good as scoring them.

So that might leave Tex less one serious option.

Pete, did someone whisper in your ear overnight that the O's just might change their philosphy to secure a pitcher with history but is also lights out against the Yanks and Red Sox?

I will throw out one more trade thought? Brian Roberts to the White Sox for Javy Vazquez and Clayton Richard.

Put them with AJ Burnett and Jeremy Guthrie and you have a very competitive staff that can give quality innings and relief to the bullpen. Vazquez and Burnett could be co-aces to spread the expectations over both starters. I do wonder if not having a Roy Halliday to take the brunt of expectations would put undue pressure on AJ as an ace.

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Pete's reply: No one whispered in my ear. I'm going on info from our baseball beat guys.

It's nice to dream, but the reality is that Mark Teixeira will not sign in Baltimore. It's highly unlikely that A.J. Burnett will either.

What this team needs to do is trade off Brian Roberts, Jamie Walker, Ramon Hernandez, and Daniel Cabrera. Get some more young players involved in the rebuilding process. Get some starting pitching, a young 2B, a young 3B, a young 1B, a young SS. There has to be young guys out there who are stuck behind a veteran that we can swipe. Could we get Alexei Ramirez and Javier Vazquez from the White Sox for Roberts and Cabrera?

Stop worrying about who we're signing, and start worrying about how we're going to get younger and better.

If not Teixiera then who plays 1st? I cant take another year of Kevin Millar and his "clubhouse leadership." I like the guy but I cant help but laugh everytime I read that.

My hunch is that $180 for 9 years is enough to bring Tex home. It would be the best truckload of money PA ever spent. This is the moment for the O's to seize a golden opportunity. It isn't every year that a switch hitting slick fielding under 30 middle of the order local kid is available. And the same is true of Burnett....yes, he is a higher risk, but he has reasons to want to play here and most MLB pitchers of his caliber, don't. See Sabathia and Lowe.

I say roll the dice and sign both of them. Wouldn't it be nice to see 30,000+ in the Yards every summer night and playing games that are meaningful in September.

The FO got it right (finally) putting Baltimore on the front of the jersey, now let's finish the job and put Teixeira and Burnett on the back. If so, this town goes crazy and O's fever is back.

I dug up quickly I think are the benchmarks for Tex and I think Jeff's numbers probably arent off (at least if you want Tex)

D.Jeter=189 million contract at 10 years (did not check if any non free agent yrs). Not including A Rod.

Manny Ramirez=160 mil for 8 years.

M Cabrera-free agent years 7 @19. He had one year non free agent in his 8 year deal, he is three years younger then Tex

Tex-turned down 8 yr at 140 in Texas that included two non free agent years so its 6 @19 for free agent years he turned down

Angels claim Tex has a knee that wont hold up for more then six (they say).

Contracts of nine years rarely end well but I do agree Tex is foundation player. Lets agree the first two years here the Orioles still might not be winners. But he certainly will help sell tickets. He may also help the Orioles attract additional free agents. So those first two years wont be completely wasted.

Now if you want to add AJ Burnett lets think here. 20 and 17 for two players starts your budget at 37 million. Lets add Brian at 4 years at 12. So now thats 49 for three players. Add Nick at say 3, 7, then 10 in his arb years. Add Guthrie. Add other players.

If the Orioles didnt trade anyone in 2009 they would have a pretty high payroll when you acct for 35 million owed to Mora, Huff and Hernandez plus Roberts. Even if traded, except Roberts I assume the O's have to eat most of the payroll.

If you go after Burnett and Tex you probably trade Roberts. You could target a package with a young pitcher (Sean Marshall or Fausto Carmona)or a veteran like Javy Vazquez and try for an additional prospect or young player. Clayton Richard, who you might remember whiffing a bunch of Tampa Bay players in the playoffs, Aaron Poreda or even Bobby Jenks who is available (Sherill is not a long term closer and could then be traded for a starter prospect or positional depth for the minors which is badly needed)

Its ironic, but if you brought in Tex and Burnett, I think you have to move Brian. The payroll risk and the fact that these kind of deals inherently rarely work means it will take time to see if the Orioles will continue to add payroll.
Unfortunately, this is the crime of drafting so poorly for almost the entire last decade. No positional depth in the organization. You can only sign so many high profile free agents and signing AJ and Tex would shoot our wad for the next couple of years.

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About Peter Schmuck
Peter Schmuck wants you to know that, contrary to popular belief, he is more than just a bon vivant, raconteur and collector of blousy flowered shirts. He is a semi-respected journalist who has covered virtually every sport -- except luge, of course – and tackled issues that transcend the mere games people play. If that isn’t enough to qualify him to provide witty, wide-ranging commentary on the sports world ... and the rest of the world, for that matter ... he is an avid reader of history, biography and the classics, as well as a charming blowhard who pops off on both sports and politics on WBAL Radio. That means you can expect a little of everything in The Schmuck Stops Here, but the major focus will be keeping you up to the minute on Baltimore’s major sports teams and themes, whether it’s throwing up the Orioles lineup the minute it’s announced or updating you on the latest sprained ankle in Owings Mills. Oh, and by the way, that’s Mr. Schmuck to you.

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