Here's a website that explains the free agency process. It basically says that even if we sing 4 Type A free agents, we wouldn't lose our first round pick as long as it is in the top half of the first round. The highest we would lose would be the 2nd round. So, signing a type A player versus an A player this year would have no difference. How many of these top tier players the O's sign, if we were to sign 4, then the O's would lose picks in rounds 2-5 and the supplemental round, I think...might be rounds 2-6 only. The article by Keith Law explains it better than I can, and he uses the O's as an example.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=2678840&name=law_keith

Pete,

Is this your best stab at expectation management or in preparation as your role in the Charm City's play the Scrooge who stole baseball? Lets give this a more positive look as we head into to free agency. Yes were in a real tough division, but another team went from worst to first and even the World Series. Give Andy a little credit, he has us headed in a positive direction and the next 4 weeks should tell us a lot, as in our we resigning BRob and will we ink Nick long-term? Then, how active will we be in free agency? Let's face it, beyond Weiters no one else appears ready as everyday players and we've seen most of the minor league pitching prospects. That said, Andy needs to buy some time and keep the fans coming through the turnstiles, that said, Peter the Great will be opening his wallet and we get 2 mid level SP's, a SS and yes, TEX!

Ok, so I'm a glass is half full kinda guy but it is the holiday season approaching and I've been a good boy, so just maybe the big guy will have left all his coal in NY, Boston and Tampa!

Who are the Tampa Bay Devil Rays? And weren't they 200-1 last year?

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Pete's reply: They were 60-1 after the Garza deal.

Just another note about the free agents: Sports Illustrated this week mentions that Brian Roberts was Defensive SS of the Year in college, so maybe a solution for the infield would be to also look for a 2nd baseman and move BR to short. Are there any second basemen out there up for grabs? Just a thought.

Schmucker, don't leave!!!

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Pete's reply: I have to. It's a family thing. Go ahead and sleep with the light on until I get back.

Have fun over there, Schmuckski.

Pete-- In yesterday's blog you mentioned the rumor that the *other* Peter "has told Andy MacPhail to pay whatever he needs to pay for Teixeira," then voiced you view that you didn't believe the rumor, citing how Angelos was burned by signing Albert Belle to a big contract.

What on earth does Belle have to do with Mark Teixeira, aside from their power numbers? Personality wise they're as different as night and day and Tex would add to clubhouse chemistry, not torch it. And it's not like the Orioles haven't signed big contracts since Belle; they even signed Miguel Tejada, Javy Lopez and Rafael Palmeiro all in the same offseason (and the O's have a better nucleus of players than they did back in '04).

Granted, Teixeira's contract would dwarf any of those (maybe all of them combined), but strictly from a business standpoint the Orioles need to do something now and quit promising pie in the sky. The harsh reality is that this past season they had their worst attendance ever at Camden Yards, coming in at a pathetic 1,950,075 (approximately 500,000 less than the AL average--the lowest single game mark was also set, with only 10,505 showing up on April 2 to see the O's play the Rays).

It's the first year the team had less than 2M fans attend at a park that saw them average over 40,000 a game in it's first decade and is the latest disturbing evidence of the club's ever-dwindling fan base.

Now one doesn't need to be privy to discussions going on at the Warehouse to know that these numbers are being discussed as much as ERAs and slugging averages. It's all well and good to talk about rebuilding, but you can be certain that just as big a concern is how the club stops the corporate bleeding.

There's no question that the addition of Teixeira to a lineup that Terry Crowley said was already good enough to win the division last season would give the O's arguably the best offense in the AL East. This is especially true when one considers that Markakis should be even better and Jones should start hitting with authority, while the emergence of hitters like Montanez, Wieters and Salazar add up to a lineup without any holes except shortstop, if a solution isn't found.

Adding Tex would give the O's an exciting offense and would certainly add up to more wins, but as the Texas Rangers have shown for years, a team can have a lethal lineup and still lose if it doesn't have the pitching. It's no surprise that good pitching is major concern, as MacPhail has said on more than one occasion,, but he's also said the team doesn't want to spend much money on free agent pitchers, but prefers to acquire them in other ways, such as trades.

So I'm of the opinion that the Orioles are going to aggressively pursue Teixeira because: 1) He is one of the very best players in the game, both at bat and in the field; 2) his obvious box office appeal as a Marylander will bring the fans back; 3) his hometown fondness for the team makes Baltimore an attractive place to play for him (which isn't true of most other free agents); 4) the front office's ability to spend big money this offseason; and 5) it's now or never...if they want him, it's going to be this offseason or not at all.

The odds of Orioles winning the World Series next year may be 100 to 1, but they're much better when it comes to the signing of Mark Teixeira. It's no slam dunk with all the interest he's going to generate, but if the O's are able to get him it shouldn't be too much of a surprise to anyone. More than the money, the O's will need to convince him that he's joining a rebuilding team not that far from contending, and with all the great young talent here or soon to be here, I don't think that's as hard a sell as some might imagine.

For me, Hot Stove speculations like this make the baseball offseason far more enjoyable than that of any other sport.

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Pete's reply: I don't think Belle has anything to do with Teixeira, but past is prologue. I just pointed out that Angelos seemed to change his attitude after that.

Say it ain't so, Pete

Ken. There's no doubt that Tex is a great hitter but how does anyone know besides the players, how a guy is in the clubhouse? Tejada had a reputation as a real leader/motivator before he came to the O's yet after a few losing seasons, he seemed to lack some hustle, wanted out etc . We didn't hear much one way or the other from his former teammates about his positive/negatives re: team chemistry.
I disagree that having Tex is going to make a big difference in attendance. What will being fans out is either a team that wins or failing that, a young team that hustles/scraps and more importantly, a team that grows together. The '08 version of the O's was neither;an obvious aging, losing squad, with very few young emerging stars, other than Jones.
Are we going to draw 2.5-3 mill fans because Tex hits 50 Hrs and we lose 90 games?
A team needs a fan base to survive and compete so I think the O's should seriously consider lowering ticket prices for a year or 2 to 'buy' the fans patience while the rebuild is occuring.
I just don't think a free-agent signing like Tex makes sense at this time. For those who think Angelos is afraid/cheap, I disagree as history shows that he hasn't been afraid to spend money. Unfortunately, most of those signing didn't work out and he wasn't the only team getting burned in the risky free-agent world'ask the Giants how they fell now about the outrageous contracts given to the likes of Rowland, Zito and Durham.
If we are going to truly rebuild, then commit to youth and forget about the trying to build with overpriced free-agents, the bargain bin and poor trades.

I say again, we need pitching! Even this club, without Texeira, scored enough to win if we could have only pitched! The walks alone killed us. It was ridiculous how we couldn't put the ball over the plate.

As much as I was opposed to Belle in an Oriole uniform because of his on and off-field issues with fans, sportscasters, neighbors, etc., he at least performed well before his hip problem arose. With the insurance, Angelos wasn't out all that much money on that contract.

The bad long-term contracts which the Orioles carried which I think were far more damaging financially were Scott Erickson, Brady Anderson, and David Sequi and probably others we've long since forgotten. Baez and Gibbons come to mind as current contracts which the Orioles have to get past them. Mora and Ramon Hernandez also come off the books at the end of 2009 if I'm not mistaken, not that Mora has performed all that badly.

Ken & TerryP -

You both made good points. While part of me struggles with the thought of adding a big time bat to the line up from The Park, in the end I'm more inclined to agree with TerryP. What good does it do us to have an offense similar to the Rangers and still loose 90 games?

Let's take this one step further and look at our own division. The Yankees spend on hitting and over the hill pitching, it's makes them competitive over a long season, but also exposes their weakness in a series with a team that has superior pitching. Now let's look at The Nation. Yes they sign free agents, however, they make shrewd trades and focus on developing young players. Their farm system has added the likes of: Varitek, Pedroia, Lowrie, Lester, & Papelbon. When they go the FA route, it's to add missing pieces such as Manny, Drew, & Dice-K. And as lethal as their offense has been, it's the pitching that seperates them from the Yanks.

The first thing we need to do to compete in this division is to build a farm system that reguarly produces players that can contribute to the Major League team. Under MacPhail that process has begun. Next we need to keep our core players, especially those that should be around the next 5 years. Therefore you extend Roberts & Markakis to give some credability to the franchise and hope for the fan base. Now with a solid FA market, show the rest of the league that we have a plan in place, and that especially down road, Baltimore will be a desireable location for them. Your big signing should be AJ Burnett, not TEX. Then add another fairly young arm in Kyle Loshe. Both would fit in the 5 year plan. Now, if you want to look at SS, consider Renteria, or maybe look at Everett. Heck explore a trade for Greene in SD if the deal makes sense. Check the waiver wire for younger players with potential who might have fallen out of favor with their previous team. Then bring Reimold & Snyder to ST, let them battle for a spot. Don't we need to see whether Reimold has a future here or not?

That is a plan most of us can live with. It should improve the pitching, and along with the return of Ray & possibly Albers & Patton, makes us stronger. The defense improves, and the veteran SS addition gives us time to go out and draft & develop our future SS.

Pete,

Enjoy the break, you deserve it, after putting up with us all year long! Hopefully we'll get some good news on the BRob and Nick fronts and be out in front on some free agent signings too!

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Pete's reply: From your lips to MacPhail's ear. I'll still be popping in occasionally, but thanks for letting me slide,

Terry P--I agree that we don't know too much about how good teammate Teixeira is in the clubhouse and for the reason you give. What we can determine is based more on what we don't hear. No reports of fights or other meltdowns, such as were notorious with Belle.

There was this report, however, just prior to Atlanta's trade of Teixeira that suggests he does have a good rep in this regard:

"The Angels, who stress defense and a unified clubhouse, would not have much use for [Manny] Ramirez. But general manager Tony Reagins has welcomed exploratory conversations with Braves counterpart Frank Wren regarding Teixeira."

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-teixeira072908&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

As far as Teixeira's contribution on the field, let me say bluntly that with Tex on the team surrounded with that lineup there is no way it loses 90 games, not even in the AL East. This easily would be the best Orioles' lineup since the mid-'90s.

Remember, if he comes to Baltimore it's going to be for the long haul. He'd very much be part--a huge part--of the rebuilding process that will be developing further in the next few years,

But as I noted, the pitching will also need to improve if the club has any realistic hope of reaching .500. And a better staff in 2009 isn't that hard to envision; it really isn't.

As for your suggestion the Angelos offers cut-rate tickets, I think I speak for most O's fans in saying thatI'd rather see an improved product on the field, rather than more losing. (You may not have had your fill of it yet, Terry, but the vast majority of fans have. LOL)

Bottom line: Going out to the park to watch a bargain basement team is no fun for the serious fan, not even when it's at a bargain basement price. I want to Angelos to spend the money to make this a team worthy of wearing the orange and black and, fortunately, I believe he does, too.

Ken. Our offense will likely improve with Tex but only if Huff continues his solid production, Jones improves and Mora can somehow maintain last year's numbers. Even if it does add another 75-100 runs to our total, if we don't find some arms, we still only marginally improve. Say we manage to finish with 'only' 85 losses, we are improving but other pieces have to fall in place before we are ready to compete.
As a long-suffering O's fan of 40 years, I am definitely tired of losing, especially with the late season meltdowns with a tired-looking/indiferrent roster. Living In Canada, I don't see the O's play in Baltimore but my lower ticket suggestion was to address the economic side of things...better to have 30,000 fans paying an avg of 35-40 per ticket vs. 15,000 @50...We can use this income to extend key players and beef up the scouting/farm system.
Personally, if I lived in Balt, I'd be more inclined to watch a developing team than a aging one that played .500 ball. Many serious baseball fans are in fact shunning MLB ball in favour of the minors, which offer a better bang for the buck.
TX Osfan. I agree with much of what you advocate, especially the building from within part, along with adding a few parts here and there. I beleive Losche is already signed by St. Louis and not sure Burnett is worth the 15/mill/yr but hey, it's not my money! He can't hurt us, even if he only wins 12-14 games but in a rebuilding club, does it make sense to have one guy making that much? When all the younger players hit their free-agent eligibilty, it can really throw the salary structure out-of-whack.
Regardless of what happens, I beleive the '09 off-season will bring some changes as I can't believe King Peter will just let things go along without some changes.

Here's a website that explains the free agency process. It basically says that even if we sing 4 Type A free agents, we wouldn't lose our first round pick as long as it is in the top half of the first round.
thanks For Sharing