The morning after
Just so you don't have to go back and look, I've reprinted my postseason predictions from yesterday's entry entitled Pete's playoff handicap. Please read them carefully and talk amongst yourselves:
My predictions: I believe the Angels, Rays, Cubs and Brewers will advance to their respective league championship series and the Cubs will beat the Angels in the World Series to make it all seem like destiny.
You have to give me this much. When I make predictions, I don't go half-stepping. In the little in-house NFL competition we publish each week in The Sun, I've got a solid overall lead over the six other miscreants who think they know something about football. But in baseball -- which is supposed to be my specialty -- I'm all the way on the other side of the ledger. The whole thing defies both logic and the laws of probability.
Each of the teams that are listed above and played last night are now trying to climb out of a hole in the Divisional round. The only team that survived the Schmuck Jinx was the Tampa Bay Rays, who have yet to step on the phony grass. Well, at least nobody can say I'm wishy-washy. The only team to hold serve at home yesterday was the Phillies (above), but I picked the Brewers. In short, this could get ugly.
My predictions could still hold up, of course, but I'm not feeling too good about the Cubs and Angels anymore. Losing the first game of a best-of-five series at home isn't exactly a prescription for postseason success. Manny Ramirez looks like he might finish off the Cubs all by himself and the Red Sox have now won 10 straight postseason games against the Angels to tie a record for most consecutive postseason victories by one team over another. Guess I should have taken some of that into account.
The performance of the Angels was particularly troublesome. Mike Scioscia's team is known for its ability to squeeze opposing pitchers and play solid fundamental baseball, but none of that was apparent last night. The Angels blew a chance to get after Boston starter Jon Lester in the first inning because Vladimir Guerrero and Howie Kendrick lunged at bad pitches in promising run-production situations. They also gave away a chance to tie the game in the eighth when Guerrero ran through a stop sign and got thrown out by a mile at third base on a bloop single by Torii Hunter.
That's not how they got here, but it might be the reason they go home early.
> 
Comments
Pete,
Can't see the Rays, who figure to have the "first time" jitters and the Sox are on a small roll right now.
And it is still early but it looks like it will be a perfect score for you. Hard to do. Congrats
Posted by: daydreamer | October 2, 2008 7:07 AM
Dodgers-Red Sox
Watcha think Pete?
.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Very possible.
Posted by: Jeff from Roch-ville | October 2, 2008 8:37 AM
peter i am also disappointed in the cubs loss yesterday. there is allways hope that they just might pull it out. like i mentioned in an earlier post,the brewers will not make it past the first round. they are wearing out cc sebathia.pitching him on 3 days rest i think for the 4th time. his arm just can't hold up. if they had ben sheets available the brewers might of had a chance. since these playoff games are the best of 5, some of the players i feel preasure themselves swing for the fences. one thing i don't understand is, mike lowell has a bad hip injury that requres surgury after the season. if he is that bad why is he playing.yea i would want to help the team,but in this situation. it seems to me that it hinders the team more than helps.
.............................................................................................
Pete's reply: Lowell is a gamer and he' s part of the heart of that team. Tough call for Francona.
Posted by: leonard | October 2, 2008 10:00 AM
It seems like the Angels always play more agressive in the postseason and it always leads to their downfall. Scioscia has to turn the excitement down a notch or they are going to play themselves out of the playoffs again.
Posted by: Jimbo | October 2, 2008 11:18 AM
Pete,
what are the odds on all Chicago WS?
..............................................................................................
Pete's reply: I don't have day-to-day odds (you could probably find them at a sports book internet site), but I'm worried about the Cubs right now.
Posted by: Altos Fastes | October 2, 2008 12:40 PM
Teams that won their divisions comfortably like the Angels & the Cubs are vulnerable particularly in a short series. When is the last time they played a "must win" game ?
I still think that Mike, Lou, & Pete are among the best.
Posted by: dave | October 2, 2008 11:52 PM
RAYS ALL THE WAY!!
Posted by: jon germany | October 2, 2008 11:54 PM
The dirty little secret about postseason baseball that most of the ESPN talking heads and other analysts don't want you to know is that it's basically random as to who the big winners are going to be. 162 games is plenty of time to determine who the best teams in baseball are, but when you get down to best-of-7s and best-of-5s, anything can happen and you might as well pick the winning team out of a hat. It's just too small a sample size to say that this team or that team will definitely win the series because they are the better team. The best team probably won last year, but look at 2006. On paper and based on what they did in the regular season, the Cardinals were pretty clearly the worst team in the playoffs, but they win the World Series. Look at the Marlins in '03 or the all-California, all-wild card World Series the year before. The Yankees had the worst record of all the 2000 playoff teams, yet they win the title. And do I need to mention the 1997 ALCS?
Posted by: Rob | October 3, 2008 12:02 AM
Rob -
How is that a "dirty little secret"?
Posted by: b | October 3, 2008 1:35 PM